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**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2010, 07:03 PM

Cover in doubt with Harvin's uncertain status

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DETROIT LIONS (0-2)
at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (0-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Minnesota -11, Total: 42

Winless rivals meet in Minnesota for a key NFC North matchup. Detroit is 0-2 SU, but has covered the spread in both its losses, dropping a 19-14 game to Chicago and then losing by a field goal in a 35-32 loss to Philadelphia. The Vikings have only scored 19 total points in its two defeats to New Orleans and Miami and are 0-2 ATS. Minnesota star WR Percy Harvin did not practice Wednesday due to migraine headaches, and is doubtful to play against Detroit.

On the Lions sideline, QB Matthew Stafford has been ruled out due to his shoulder injury. Shaun Hill remains under center, but he will likely be missing one of his starting receivers, as Nate Burleson is dealing with a high ankle sprain suffered in last week’s game. Hill threw for 335 yards and two touchdowns in the loss to Philly, and he will try to get star WR Calvin Johnson (eight catches for 95 yards this year) more involved in the offense. One player who doesn’t have to worry about his involvement is RB Jahvid Best, coming off 232 total yards and three touchdowns against the Eagles.

Brett Favre has been terrible this year (6.3 yds per pass attempt, 1 TD, 4 INT), but he has usually enjoyed success against Detroit. In 34 career starts against the Lions, Favre is 25-9 with 257 passing YPG, 57 TD and 37 INT. But without Harvin, the Vikings will rely on Adrian Peterson to lead their rushing attack. Peterson has been the lone bright spot for Minnesota’s offense with 287 total yards. He also enjoyed facing the Lions in the past, with an average of 122 total YPG and five TD in six career games against Detroit.

Minnesota has won 16 of the past 18 meetings at the Metrodome, but Detroit is 9-8-1 ATS over that span. This FoxSheets trend shows why the Lions may not win, but they have a great chance to cover again:

Play Against - Home favorites of 10.5 or more points (MINNESOTA) - versus division opponents, off an upset loss as a favorite. (42-14 since 1983.) (75%, +26.6 units. Rating = 3*).

FoxSheets also favors the Over in this game:

Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DETROIT) - after 2 straight losses by 6 or less points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. (27-7 since 1983.) (79.4%, +19.3 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2010, 07:04 PM

Can Vick lead Eagles to win at Jacksonville?

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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (1-1)
at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (1-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT, Line: Philadelphia -3, Total: 44.5

Michael Vick gets another start under center as the Eagles travel to Jacksonville to take on the reeling Jaguars. Vick replaced Kevin Kolb (concussion) and led the Eagles to a 35-32 win at Detroit last week. Despite Kolb seemingly healthy again, Philadelphia head coach Andy Reid decided to stick with Vick as his starter. The Jaguars also had a bit of a QB controversy with the benching of David Garrard during a 38-13 loss at San Diego. But with back-up QB Cade McCown tearing his ACL, Garrard will keep his starting role for Sunday’s game.

The 30-year-old Vick has been outstanding this year with 599 yards (459 passing, 140 rushing) in two games. He has completed 64 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and no turnovers. The one negative is that Vick been sacked an NFL-leading nine times. But Vick and RB LeSean McCoy (140 rushing yards) have also led the Eagles to the second-most rushing yards in the league, and they should be able to expose a below-average Jaguars run defense, which allowed 116 YPG last year (19th in NFL) and 120 YPG in 2010. Philly should also have success throwing the football on a Jags defense allowing 300 passing YPG to Kyle Orton and Philip Rivers this season.

For Jacksonville to win on its home turf, Maurice Jones-Drew needs to step up his game. Rumors swirled in the preseason about a knee injury that was limiting Jones-Drew, and there could be some truth to those rumors. After scoring 16 touchdowns and averaging 110 YPG last year, Jones-Drew is scoreless and gaining just 80.5 YPG. The Jaguars would also benefit from improved play under center. Garrard was great in the Week 1 home win over Denver (16-for-21, 170 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT), but threw four interceptions last week against San Diego. These numbers aren't too surprising, considering Garrard has been much more comfortable at home in his career (43 TD, 17 INT) than on the road (27 TD, 26 INT).

Despite Garrard’s home success, this FoxSheets trend shows why the Eagles will win and cover:

Play Against – Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) - off a road loss, team that had a losing record last season. (46-16 since 1983.) (74.2%, +28.4 units. Rating = 3*).

And considering the Eagles have allowed an uncharacteristic 59 points (27 to Green Bay, 32 to Detroit), this FoxSheets trend shows that Philly’s defense doesn’t usually get lit up three times in a row, making the Under the play here:

PHILADELPHIA is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 17.0, OPPONENT 16.6. – (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2010, 07:07 PM

NFL Betting Notes

Week 2 of the NFL was a tough one for the players as the Nevada sports books had everything fall perfectly for them. The books had the perfect mix of upsets in games that negated any outstanding parlay risk liability from the small money as well as beating the sharp plays. Players weren’t able to get any momentum throughout the day as teams as popular teams like the Eagles got back doored late and the Patriots got beat straight up.

Other games that helped the books were the Vikings losing to Miami, the Steelers winning at Tennessee, and the Bears beating the Cowboys. All three of those games were large home favorites which are always public favorites. In each of those instances, they played a major a role in eliminating parlays throughout the day.

The sharp bettors didn’t fare much better as they lost with the Eagles, Ravens, Cardinals, and Jaguars. The books could have made it a clean sweep if not getting sided in the Redskins game. The Texans had bounced around from 2 ½ to 3-point favorites all week and a late 17-point comeback by the Texans forced overtime where they eventually won by three.

Usually the Sunday night game is a powder keg of cumulative risk throughout the day where the favored side and over the total is always a bad combination. While the Colts' 38-14 win was one of the only losses on the day for books, it was a considerable lower than most weeks just because of risk being limited throughout the day games.

Overall, the favorites went 6-9 on Sunday with seven of the underdogs winning outright on the money line. The biggest favorite of the day, Green Bay -13, got there while the two biggest moves didn’t. The Bengals opened as a pick ’em at home and the line shot up to Ravens -3 by kickoff. The Jets were a tentative 1-point favorite prior to their Monday night loss to Baltimore and by game-time the line had the Patriots -3. In both of those instances, there was a major over-reaction to what had happened in their games the week before.

Back to the Drawing Board

Two teams that faced each other in the playoffs last season now find themselves 0-2 to start the season after getting upset at home. The Cowboys and Vikings were large favorites and each lost quite convincingly. The Bears had been bet by some sharp play early in the week pushing the opener from Cowboys -9 to -7 by game-time. The Vikings were bet down to -5 ½ by game-time and lost 14-10 to the Dolphins. In both cases, turnovers were the keys with Brett Favre throwing three key picks and fumbling once.

As for the Bears, we bang on Jay Cutler so much for his interceptions, but rarely give credit when he plays well. On Sunday, Cutler was fantastic with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He played one of his best games ever with mixes of short quick passes and long bombs that kept the Dallas defense off-balance all day. After going 0-4 in preseason with everyone, including me, saying the Mike Martz-Cutler relationship was in trouble, the Bears now find themselves 2-0 atop the NFC North.

Titanic Turnovers

After an unsuccessful three quarters against the Steelers, starting quarterback Vince Young was yanked in favor of veteran backup Kerry Collins. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out with Young’s fragile psyche as the year goes on for the Titans. Confidence is a huge part of his game and if the coach isn’t showing him any, we could see more games like we saw Sunday -- maybe not the seven turnovers. In all fairness to Young, the Steelers are playing some of the best defense in football right now.

Titans' running back Chris Johnson had his streak of 11 straight games with 100 yards rushing snapped by Pittsburgh. Along with losing the game and the streak, Johnson also lost his chance of hitting his lofty goal of 2,500 yards rushing.

He Just Might be Best

Jahvid Best broke loose for a big first half against the Eagles with scores of 14 and 75 yards. Despite losing to the Eagles, Best put in a pretty productive day with 78 yards rushing and catching nine passes for 154 yards. Best scored three touchdowns in the game giving him five for the season making him only the fourth player since 1960 to score two TD‘s or more in their first two games.

QB Controversy

So, do we have a QB controversy in Philly? Not according to head coach Andy Reid who announced before their game that Kevin Kolb will start in Week 3. Reid may have been just looking for a way to end all the questions from reporters by throwing it out there early, but how can he sit Vick with the way he’s playing in favor of Kolb? Philly fans want Vick in there as well and it will be the talk of the week on sports radio there. Vick also doesn’t help ease the matter with own comments either, saying if he would have played the entire first game against Green Bay that he would have won that game, too.

The Titans using Kerry Collins with Young not being successful won’t be an issue this week, but in Oakland, coach Tom Cable with have a tough decision to make. With Jason Campbell only able to put three points on the board in the first half, Cable made a move cheered on by the Oakland fans and brought in Bruce Gradkowski to start the second half. It paid off as Gradkowski had three scoring drives leading the Raiders to a 16-14 win over the Rams.

Other NFL Notes

In Sunday’s Texans-Redskins overtime shootout, both quarterbacks threw for over 400 yards for only the sixth time in NFL history. 1994 was the last time it happened with Dan Marino and Drew Bledsoe airing it out. Matt Schaub came three yards short of making it the only time in NFL history there has been a 500 and 400-yard passer in the same game.

Chargers rookie tailback Ryan Mathews hurt his right ankle and was carted off the field in the second quarter of San Diego’s 38-13 win over Jacksonville. Mathews came back onto the field in the third quarter and said he could play, but he was told they didn’t want to risk him. It’s quite possible that the team simply didn’t want to risk Mathews turning the ball over again. In the first two starts of his career Mathews has had a fumble in each.

This Week

There are three games with double-digit spreads and seven home dogs. The Buffalo Bills have signs of being the worst team in the league and have a hard time trying to make a case for them at New England. I’ll be looking to take the Broncos and the points at home against the Colts along with the Bears getting points at home on Monday night against the Packers.

Radio

Come out and visit ESPN’s Brian Blessing at the NASCAR Café every Monday night where he does Sports Book Radio 1100 AM from 2-3 pm and then gives away all kinds of cool prizes throughout the game. I’ll be a frequent guest on the show as well offering all the same type of garble I write about each week. The folks over at NASCAR Café do a great job of making the Monday night games seem like a big event each week. There isn’t a bad seat in the house as they have big screens all over the place for your viewing pleasure.

There’s another sports betting radio show I’ll be visiting from time to time as well that you can listen to on KDWN 720 AM nightly at midnight. The Monday through Friday show is hosted by Las Vegas Review-Journal writers Adam Hill and Matt Youmans who run down everything from a betting approach. Last week I had the pleasure of assisting in an interview with Michael “Roxy” Roxborough who wrote the bible of bookmaking.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2010, 07:08 PM

Teams Avoiding an 0-3 Start

We have seen plenty of surprises through the first two weeks of the season in the NFL, both positive and negative. Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Miami, and Chicago are among the 2-0 teams we didn't expect, while a handful of 0-2 clubs are raising eyebrows. Minnesota and Dallas are two division winners from a season ago that are winless through two weeks, and are in must-win situations this Sunday. We'll take a look at all eight 0-2 squads and what they need to do to avoid an 0-3 hole.

Lions at Vikings (-11, 42 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

It's amazing that an 0-2 team is laying double-digit points, even with a Minnesota squad that hasn't scored more than 10 points in a game so far this season. Dating back to 2000, there has been only one 0-2 team listed as a double-digit home favorite, as the Dolphins failed to cover in a 13-10 win over the Titans as 10 ½-point 'chalk' in 2006. The Vikings will try to get their offense going against a Lions' club that has allowed over 400 yards in each of their losses.

Detroit squandered a 10-point lead in last week's 35-32 setback to Philadelphia, as the Lions played without starting quarterback Matthew Stafford. The offense responded to backup Shaun Hill, who threw for 335 yards and two touchdowns, including the late score to Calvin Johnson to give Detroit the backdoor cover as six-point underdogs. The Lions have struggled within the NFC North since the Rod Marinelli era began in 2006, going 3-22 SU and 8-15-2 ATS. The opening week cover at Chicago was the first time Detroit has cashed inside the division under Jim Schwartz, snapping an 0-5-1 ATS skid that started last season.

The Vikings were an offensive juggernaut in 2009, but in two weeks this season, things have turned offensive on that side ball very quickly. Brett Favre threw three interceptions in last week's 14-10 loss to the Dolphins, Minnesota's first home defeat since a 26-14 setback to Philadelphia in the 2008 Wild Card round. For as bad as the Lions are against the NFC North, the Vikings are the polar opposite with a 9-3 SU record the last two seasons. Minnesota managed a 4-1-1 ATS mark against division foes in 2009, while going 4-0-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite overall.

Cowboys at Texans (-3, 47 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

The battle of the Lone Star State takes place at Reliant Stadium in Houston as the Texans look to begin 3-0 for the first time in franchise history. On the flip side, the Cowboys try to dig out of an 0-2 hole, as Wade Phillips' team would like to avoid an 0-3 start prior to their bye next week.

Houston has pulled out two impressive victories to begin the season, both in contrasting ways. The Texans busted out of a 1-15 SU funk against the Colts with a 34-24 opening week victory, as the Houston running game boosted the offense with 257 yards on the ground. Matt Schaub went from throwing for 107 yards against Indianapolis to a career-high 497 yards and three touchdowns in last week's overtime victory at Washington. The Texans have won six straight home games against NFC foes, as they try to avenge a 34-6 loss at Dallas in Gary Kubiak's first season as head coach in 2006.

The Cowboys were expected to compete for the NFC Championship this team, but they have work to do following losses to the Redskins and Bears. Dallas has outgained each of its opponents, as the passing game kept the Cowboys close in last week's 27-20 defeat to the Bears. The problem is the Cowboys haven't been able to cash in, as Dallas has scored two offensive touchdowns in two games. Dallas dropped its only trip ever to Reliant Stadium in Houston's expansion season of 2002, falling 19-10 as nine-point 'chalk.'

Bengals (-3, 38) at Panthers - 1:00 PM EST

Cincinnati bounced back after an embarrassing loss at New England, as the Bengals edged the Ravens as short home underdogs. The defending AFC North champs travel to Carolina to take on the 0-2 Panthers, who have made a change for the future at quarterback.

Former Notre Dame standout Jimmy Clausen replaces Matt Moore under center for the Panthers, as Carolina has scored nine points the last six quarters. For the exception of a Steve Smith 37-yard touchdown grab, the Panthers accomplished very little in last Sunday's 20-7 home defeat to the Bucs. Carolina's defense limited Tampa Bay to 273 yards, but the Panthers lost the turnover battle, 3-0.

The Bengals managed five Mike Nugent field goals in the 15-10 win over the Ravens, but Cincinnati now gets flipped to the favorite role this week. Marvin Lewis' team was 0-8 ATS and 4-4 SU when laying points in 2009, while owning a 2-8 ATS mark as a road favorite since 2006.

Bills at Patriots (-14, 42 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

Buffalo has looked like the worst team in the NFL through two weeks, getting outscored, 49-17. The Bills head to Foxboro as Buffalo tries for its first road win over New England since 2000. The Pats will not be a happy bunch, coming home off a 28-14 setback at the Jets in which New York scored the final 21 points in the game.

This series has been dominated by the Patriots over the years with New England winning the last 13 meetings. The Bills have found a way to cover only three times in this span, including a 25-24 loss as 13-point underdogs in last year's season opener in Foxboro. The Trent Edwards experiment is on hold for now as the Bills will start Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. The former Harvard QB was responsible for four road covers last season, including SU wins over the Jets, Panthers, and Chiefs.

The Patriots own a strong 19-5 ATS ledger since 2003 off a loss, while losing consecutive games only twice in this span. On the flip side, New England has covered only three of its previous 13 games as a double-digit favorite since the Pats' undefeated regular season of 2007.

49ers (-3, 36 ½) at Chiefs - 1:00 PM EST

San Francisco lost a heartbreaker on Monday night to New Orleans, falling to the defending Super Bowl champs, 25-22. The Niners cashed as six-point 'dogs, but their late rally fell short on Garrett Hartley's game-winning field goal at the gun. The Chiefs, meanwhile, look for their first 3-0 start since a 9-0 debut to the 2003 season.

The Niners turned the ball over four times, but Frank Gore's touchdown in the final two minutes tied the game up for San Francisco. The problem this week is Alex Smith's 1-6 SU mark on the road since last season, including the opening week drubbing suffered at Seattle.

The Chiefs have not been spectacular from an offensive standpoint, but Kansas City has made enough big plays to start 2-0 after wins over San Diego and Cleveland. Brandon Flowers was responsible for Kansas City's lone touchdown in the 16-14 victory over the Browns, the second non-offensive touchdown scored by the Chiefs in two weeks. Since an 0-4 ATS start last season, the Chiefs are 9-5 ATS the previous 14 games, but have covered only one of their last six at Arrowhead Stadium.

Browns at Ravens (-10 ½, 37 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

The battle of the new Browns and the old Browns takes place in Baltimore as the Ravens play their home opener against a struggling Cleveland squad. John Harbaugh's club has scored only 20 points in two games, but the Ravens' defense has limited opponents to 24 points in a 1-1 start.

The Browns have been involved in two low-scoring games, while leading at the half in losses to the Bucs and Chiefs. Cleveland will probably stick with Seneca Wallace this week after Jake Delhomme missed the Kansas City game with an ankle injury. Eric Mangini has done a good job covering numbers on the road since last season, owning a 5-2 ATS ledger in their last seven on the highway.

Baltimore has won four straight meetings with Cleveland, including a pair of whippings last season. The Ravens blew out the Browns in Week 3 at home, 34-3, easily covering as 13 ½-point favorites. Under Harbaugh, Baltimore has been a machine as a home favorite with a 10-3 ATS mark when laying points at M&T Bank Stadium.

Redskins (-3, 38 ½) at Rams - 4:05 PM EST

Washington was unable to hold a 17-point lead in last Sunday's overtime loss to Houston, but the Redskins' offense woke up with a 421-yard effort. The 'Skins look to bounce back with a trip to St. Louis, battling the winless Rams, who suffered their second defeat of four points or less.

The Rams will be better soon, but St. Louis has now lost 27 of its last 28 games dating back to 2008. To make matters worse, the Rams are 0-14 SU and 5-9 ATS at the Edward Jones Dome since beating the Cowboys in October 2008. St. Louis has played well against Washington over the last two seasons, beating the Redskins, 19-17 as 13-point road underdogs in '08. The Rams covered again last season in D.C., but fell short in a 9-7 loss in Week 2.

The Redskins own a 12-8-5 ATS mark on the road since 2007, while splitting a pair of games as away 'chalk' last season against Detroit (L) and Oakland (W). Washington would like to improve on its 2009 ledger as a favorite against non-division opponents, going just 1-4 ATS.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2010, 07:09 PM

Packers and Bears, Oh My!

Well, it certainly didn’t take long for players at Bodog’s online sportsbook to identify what the big game is for Week 3 on the National Football League schedule. With the betting lines having just been released, a large amount of handle has already come in on the marquee matchup of the weekend: The 2-0 Chicago Bears playing host to the 2-0 Green Bay Packers in a classic NFC North rivalry game.

Despite racing out to a 2-0 record, the Bears have opened as a three-point home underdog, the second straight week they’ve been listed as dogs (Dallas was listed as more than a touchdown favorite last week, but the Bears still emerged with a 27-20 win). It’s not an unusual trend, but one that betting public – like the rest of the NFL, for that matter – is still trying to figure out. What exactly are these Chicago Bears?

Well, let’s look at their two wins. Chicago barely escaped with a win over Detroit in Week 1, which many saw as a poor performance. But with Detroit nearly shocking Philly last week and the outstanding performances being put forth by rookie RB Jahvid Best, it stands to reason that Detroit is a far tougher opponent than many assumed. Then in Week 2, Chicago went into Dallas and knocked off the Cowboys in their home opener and this time, it was the play of QB Jay Cutler that surprised. By finishing with a 136.7 QB rating, three TDs and 277 passing yards, Cutler might’ve had himself his best day in a Chicago uniform and really snapped some heads in the betting community. Sharp players are now starting to wonder if the Cutler-Mike Martz relationship could carry the Bears offensively throughout the year, something the Bears haven’t had (a dynamic offense, that is) for quite some time.

Over in Green Bay, much of the Packers’ early success can be attributed to the defense. That’s a stark contrast from last year when QB Aaron Rodgers broke out with a Pro Bowl-worthy campaign while the defense struggled (like allowing 51 points to Arizona in the NFC wildcard playoff last year, for example). In 2010, Pack could have another star in the making and this time he’s on the defensive side of the football: Clay Matthews. Matthews leads the NFL in sacks, with six, and has given Green Bay a weapon they haven’t seen in years – a dynamic pass-rushing linebacker than can strip-sack, force fumbles and make big plays in general. And herein lies the real beauty for Green Bay backers looking to wager on the minus-3 this Monday night – it appears that the Pack finally have the defense to match their explosive offense.

Monday night promises to be an outstanding affair as the number of bets placed on this game continues to rise. If you’d like to throw down on Bears vs. Packers or any other NFL football betting action this weekend, be a player and do it at Bodog’s online sportsbook, your one-stop shop for all the lines, odds, point spreads and more!

**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2010, 07:10 PM

Week 2 Rewind

Minnesota and Dallas are winless, while Tampa Bay, Chicago, Kansas City, Houston and Pittsburgh are unbeaten. The Steelers’ unblemished resume is only a shocker in the sense that Ben Roethlisberger is suspended and both Dennis Dixon and Byron Leftwich have been injured.

Nevertheless, Mike Tomlin’s team found a way to beat Atlanta in overtime last week and then dominated Tennessee in Nashville. The Steelers won by a score of 19-11, but the game was never really that close. Vince Young, who had led the Titans to a 9-2 record in 11 starts since getting his job back, committed three turnovers and got yanked by Jeff Fisher in favor of Kerry Collins.

After the game, Fisher said Young was his quarterback and would start next week in the Meadowlands against the Giants.

Mark Sanchez and the Jets answered their critics by rolling to a 28-14 win over New England as three-point home underdogs. The 42 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 39-point total.

Sanchez bounced back from a dismal performance against the Ravens, completing 21-of-30 passes for 220 yards and three touchdowns without being intercepted. LaDainian Tomlinson added 76 rushing yards on the Pats despite getting just 11 carries.

The Pats will take a 1-1 record into next week’s home game against Buffalo. As of early Monday morning, most books had Bill Belichick’s team as a 13-point favorite vs. the Bills. The Jets also stay within the division, venturing to Miami to face the unbeaten Dolphins. Rex Ryan’s team will catch a break with the prime-time kickoff (8:20 Eastern) that’ll allow New York to avoid the brutal afternoon heat in South Florida during September.

Houston played from ahead in last week’s home win over Indianapolis. But in Week 2 at Washington, the Texans were forced to play from behind all day. The results remained the same, however, as Matt Schaub rallied his team to force overtime and eventually beat the Redskins 30-27.

The Texans closed as three-point favorites at most spots, so side wagers were a push. The 57 combined points roared ‘over’ the 43-point tally. Gary Kubiak’s squad will take on the Cowboys next week at Reliant Stadium. Most books have tabbed Houston as a three-point home ‘chalk.’

Jay Cutler was the best QB on the field at Cowboys Stadium in Week 2. The much-maligned Vanderbilt product connected on 21-of-29 passes for 277 yards and three TDs without throwing an interception. That production led the 2-0 Bears to a 27-20 win at Dallas as seven-point road underdogs.

Bettors backing Chicago on the money line brought home a plus-280 payout (paid $280 on $100 wagers). The Bears are three-point home underdogs for next Monday’s NFC North showdown against Green Bay.

Aaron Rodgers and Co. dealt out woodshed treatment at Lambeau Field against Buffalo, cruising to a 34-7 win as a 13-point home favorite. Rodgers led the Packers with 255 passing yards, two TD passes and one TD run.

Minnesota fell to 0-2 when Miami won a second straight road game by a 14-10 count. The Dolphins won outright as 5 1/2-point underdogs, hooking up money-line backers with a plus-210 return (paid $210 on $100 wagers).

Brett Favre threw three interceptions and coughed up a fumble in the end zone that was recovered by the ‘Fins for a 14-0 lead in the third quarter. The Vikings’ defense kept them in it and they had a chance to take the lead late in the fourth quarter. However, Adrian Peterson was denied on a fourth-and-goal run from the one.

Brad Childress’s team is home again next week to take on Detroit. The Vikes were favored by 10 or 10 ½ early Monday morning.

Atlanta posted the most lopsided victory of the weekend, trashing Arizona 41-7 as a seven-point home favorite. Matt Ryan threw for 225 yards and three TDs with no picks, while Jason Snelling finished with 129 rushing yards and a pair of TD runs. Snelling also had five catches for 57 yards and another score.

Michael Turner left the game with a groin injury that isn’t thought to be serious. In fact, the Falcons are hoping Turner will be back for next week’s game at New Orleans.

Tampa Bay has beaten two teams with zero wins, but the Bucs are 2-0 nonetheless. They rallied to beat Cleveland in Week 1 and then captured a 20-7 win at Carolina. Josh Freeman threw a pair of TD passes and scrambled for 43 yards. Most importantly, the second-year signal caller didn’t commit a turnover in leading his team to victory as a 3 ½-point underdog.

San Diego put Monday’s loss at Kansas City aside in time to spank Jacksonville 38-13 as a seven-point favorite in its home opener. Philip Rivers threw for 334 yards and three TDs, while the Bolts’ defense intercepted David Garrard four times. The Chargers take their 1-1 record to Seattle next week.

Denver and Oakland pulled into a second-place tie with Seattle in the AFC West. Those three teams trail the unbeaten Chiefs, who won a 16-14 decision at Cleveland as three-point underdogs.

Kyle Orton was the catalyst in Denver’s 31-14 home victory over the Seahawks. Orton completed 25-of-35 throws for 307 passing yards and two TDs without an interception. The Broncos took the money as 3 ½-point home favorites. They’ll be home underdogs next week against the Colts.

Oakland slipped past St. Louis 16-14 thanks to the relief work at QB from veteran Bruce Gradkowski, who led an 83-yard drive and found Louis Murphy for a four-yard TD pass to put the Raiders ahead for good late in the third quarter.

Michael Vick’s first NFL start since late 2006 was a roaring success unless, of course, you laid the points with the Eagles. Philadelphia won 35-32 at Detroit, but the Lions posted a backdoor cover and took the cash as 6 ½-point home underdogs.

Bettors can’t blame Vick for the non-cover. He was terrific all day, throwing for 284 yards and two TDs without committing a turnover. Vick also scrambled for 37 yards even though he made a concerted effort to keep himself out of harm’s way. LeSean McCoy enjoyed a career day, rushing for 120 yards and three TDs on just 16 carries.

The Eagles, who play at Jacksonville this week, are expected to turn back to Kevin Kolb as the starting QB if he passes all of his medical tests this week. If Kolb doesn’t perform well, the QB controversy in Philadelphia is going to be a boiling-hot issue with Donovan McNabb and the ‘Skins coming to Lincoln Financial Field in Week 4.

Indianapolis was one of the best plays on the board in Week 3, destroying the Giants 38-14 as a four-point home 'chalk.' I had the Colts as my guaranteed pick and was shocked when the number went from five to four late in the week. I was expecting the opposite, thinking the Colts would close at around six or 6 ½.

Peyton Manning connected on 20-of-26 passes for 255 yards and three TDs without a pick. Joseph Addai finished with 92 rushing yards on 20 totes.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--In the wake of Oakland’s first win, owner Al Davis was up to his old tricks. The Raiders’ PR staff issued a press release with invented quotes from Tom Cable about the team’s quarterbacks, Campbell and Gradkowski. Davis favors Campbell, who has played awful the first two weeks, while Cable is partial to Gradkowski, who led the comeback win over the Rams and also played outstanding in upset wins over Cincinnati and Pittsburgh last year. Great call by Cable to go to Gradkowski against the Rams. Now we find out if his owner will let him keep him as the starter.

--New England rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez had a team-high six receptions for 101 yards in the loss to the Jets.

--Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson had 28 carries for 145 yards and one TD run in the loss to the ‘Fins.

--Houston QB Matt Schaub’s final stat line looked like this: 38-of-52 for 497 yards and three TDs with one interception.

--Best Week 3 Games:
1-Dallas at Houston
2-Atlanta at New Orleans
3-New York Jets at Miami
4-San Diego at Seattle
5-Indianapolis at Denver

--My Top Ten:
1-Packers
2-Saints
3-Ravens
4-Jets
5-Pats
6-Colts
7-Texans
8-Steelers
9-Falcons
10-Bengals

**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2010, 07:11 PM

Divisional H2H Trends

Throughout the years, we’ve seen enough gridiron point-spread trends and angles to realize that none of them lasts forever. But some of them can endure for several years. And many of the more pronounced trends have often been featured in the various NFL divisional rivalries that are renewed twice each season. Following are some of the more interesting of those series angles, broken down by team, that have been worth following in recent campaigns and might bear watching again in 2010. The remaining dates of this season’s matchups vs. the division foe referenced will appear in ( ). Keep the following notes handy as these matchups arise throughout the 2010 NFL campaign!
Arizona...Cards have had the best of it lately vs. Seattle (Nov. 14, Dec. 5), winning and covering last 4, and 6 of last 7 clashes. Cards have also covered 5 of last 6 against opening-week victim St. Louis (Dec. 5), with the last five in that series "under" as well. Atlanta...Falcs have had some problems lately vs. Tampa Bay (Nov. 7, Dec. 5), dropping 5 of last 6 spread decisions. That series has also gone "under" the past four meetings. Baltimore...After dropping six spread decisions in a row vs. the Browns (Sept. 26, Dec. 26), the Ravens have bounced back to win and cover all four vs. Cleveland the past two seasons. Buffalo...The Bills haven’t beaten New England (Sept. 26, Dec. 26) SU since winning the opener back in ‘03, 31-0; the Patriots have now won 13 straight vs. Buffalo, covering 10 of those battles. Carolina...The Panthers have given the Saints (October 3, November 7) fits lately, covering the last 4, and 7 of the last 9 meetings. The Panthers are also "over" 3 of their last 4 vs. Tampa Bay (Nov. 14). Chicago...No pointspread luck lately for Lovie Smith’s men against Green Bay (Sept. 27, Jan. 2), losing the last four against the number vs. the Pack. All four of those games "under" as well. The Bears have also covered just one of their last five trips to Minnesota (Nov. 14, at Minn. Dec. 20). Cincinnati...The Bengals managed wins and covers in both meetings last season vs. Pittsburgh (Nov. 8, Dec. 12), but over the past decade have covered only 7 of 21 vs. the Steelers. Cleveland...The Browns have played rival Pittsburgh (Oct. 17, Jan. 2) pretty tough lately, covering four of the last five meetings.

Dallas...Note that Cowboys won and covered three times last season vs. Philly (Dec. 12, Jan. 2) after dropping five of six previous spread decisions vs. the Birds. Denver...The Broncos have failed to cover their last four at home against Oakland (Oct. 24 at Denver, Dec. 19), a series in which the road team has covered 10 of the last 14 meetings. Denver is also "over" 6 of its last 8 vs. San Diego (Nov. 22, Jan. 2). Detroit...No success for the Lions lately vs. Green Bay (Oct. 3, Dec. 12), which has covered 7 of the last 8 meetings. Green Bay...Note "unders" in 5 of the last 6 vs. the Lions, but recent "totals" vs. Minnesota (Oct. 24, Nov. 21) have trended "over" the last 4, and 5 of the last 6. Houston...Although the Texans won SU for only the second time in 17 meetings vs. the Colts (Nov. 1) on opening day, note that the Texans are now 9-5-1 vs. the line the last 15 vs. Indy. Ten of their last 11 vs. the Colts are "over" as well. Indianapolis...Note the streaky nature of the series vs. Tennessee (Dec. 9, Jan. 2), with the Colts covering the last 3, the Titans covering the prior 5, and the Colts covering the previous 6. Indy also "under" 9-1 last 10 against Tennessee. Jacksonville...The underdog side is 9-4 vs. the number the last 13 games vs. Tennessee (Oct. 18, Dec. 5). The Jags have also covered 5 of their last 6 at Indy (Oct. 3, Dec. 19 at Indy). Kansas City...Note "overs" in 13 of last 17 vs. Denver (Nov. 14, Dec. 5).

Miami...After failing to cover 10 straight vs. the Jets (Sept. 26, Dec. 12), the Dolphins have now won and covered the last 3. Miami also had failed to cover 8 straight vs. the Bills a few years back, but has now covered 4 of its last 5 vs. Buffalo (Dec. 19) after that opening-day success. Minnesota...Note "unders" the last four, and five of the last six vs. Detroit (Sept. 26, Jan. 2). New England...Bill Belichick only 1-4 vs. line last 5, and 3-7-1 the last 11 vs. Miami (Oct. 4, Jan. 2). New Orleans...Saints "over" 4-1 last 5 vs. Atlanta (Sept. 26, Dec. 27). NY Giants...G-Men 4-1 vs. line last 5 and 8-3-2 last 13 vs. Dallas (Oct. 25, Nov. 14). Giants also 6-1-1 vs. points last 8 against Washington (Dec. 5, Jan. 2). NY Jets...Road team 8-2 vs. line last 10 vs. New England (Dec. 6). Oakland...Raiders have dropped last 7 spread decisions at Coliseum vs. Kansas City (Nov. 7 at Oakland, Jan. 2). "Unders" also 9-1 last 10 vs. Chiefs. Philadelphia...Eagles have won and covered last four vs. Giants (Nov. 21, Dec. 19).

Pittsburgh...Note "overs" in 6 of last 8 meetings vs. Baltimore (Oct. 3, Dec. 5). San Diego...Chargers have covered 7 of their last 8 at Oakland (Oct. 10 at Oakland, Dec. 5). They had also covered 11 of 12 since ‘03 vs. Raiders before LY, when Oakland covered both meetings. San Francisco...49ers have covered 9 of their last 11 vs. St. Louis (Nov. 14, Dec. 26), with 7 of the last 8 "under" against the Rams. Seattle...Seahawks "under" 6-2-1 last 9 vs. opening-week victim 49ers (Dec. 12). St. Louis...Rams have had their problems lately vs. Seattle (Oct. 3, Jan. 2), dropping the last 6 SU and against the number vs. the Seahawks. Tampa Bay...Streaky "totals" pattern lately vs. New Orleans (Oct. 17, Jan. 2), "under" 5 straight in 2003-05, then "over" 6 straight through first ‘08 meeting, and now "under" last three. Tennessee...Titans now 6-2 both vs. line and "over" last 8 vs. Houston (Nov. 28, Dec. 19). Washington...Opening Sunday night win over Dallas (Dec. 19) marked the Skins’ sixth spread win their last 8 vs. the Cowboys. Washington also 7-3-1 vs. number last 11 vs. Eagles (Oct. 3, Nov. 15).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2010, 07:15 PM

NFL Odds: Houston, Dallas in Texas tussle

There’s a Texas team off to a hot start and soaring up the oddsboard, but it’s not the one most predicted. The Houston Texans shoot for a 3-0 record Sunday afternoon when they host their in-state rivals from Dallas.

Bookmaker.com has Houston as three-point favorites (Even) with a total of 47 ½-points. The Cowboys are plus 120 against the money line.

The Texans are 2-0 straight-up and against the spread after a 34-24 home win against Indianapolis, and a 30-27 overtime win at Washington. They’ve never made the playoffs since the franchise started in 2002 and had their first winning season last year (9-7).

Coach Gary Kubiak’s team is the early NFL leader in scoring (32 PPG). The passing game was expected to be explosive, and it was proven last week. Quarterback Matt Schaub threw for 497 yards, rallying from a 27-10 third-quarter deficit in Washington.

The running game has been a big surprise after ranking 30th last year. Arian Foster had 231 yards rushing against Indy and grinded out 69 against Washington. He also had 69 receiving yards last week and is bringing much-needed balance to the offense.

The Texans’ defense ranks second-to-last in total yards allowed (442 per game). The run ‘D’ is only surrendering 31 YPG, but Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb both torched the secondary for over 400 yards.

Rookie cornerback Kareem Jackson has been picked on mightily and McNabb’s stats would have been greater if not for three sacks from defensive end Mario Williams. Linebacker Brian Cushing will miss two more games with his league suspension for substance abuse.

Houston started 2-0 just one other time in its history (2007). It lost 30-24 to Indianapolis at home the next game, getting a fortunate cover of 6 ½-points with a late touchdown.

Houston has won six straight games going back to last year (4-1-1 ATS). The ‘over’ is 2-0 this season and 3-0-1 in its last four games.

The Texans were plus 1200 to win the AFC before the season. Those odds should be closer to plus 700 when updated soon.

Dallas (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) may be the NFL’s most disappointing team with losses at Washington (13-7) and home to Chicago (27-20). The loss to Chicago was really surprising as Dallas was seven-point ‘chalk.’

Tony Romo and the offense ranks fourth in the NFL in total yards (395 per game). However, it’s only translated into two touchdowns due to four turnovers and the offense bogging down at crucial times. Kicker David Buehler has missed twice on four attempts.

The Dallas defense hasn’t played bad overall (ranked 10th in total yards), although it hasn’t forced a turnover. It didn’t allow a touchdown to Washington, with its lone touchdown coming on a fumble recovery.

The defense held Chicago to 38 rushing yards and 1-of-11 on third down, but got burned on too many long passing plays by Jay Cutler.

The ‘under’ is 1-1 for Dallas this season and 10-3 in its last 13 games overall. This is the first time Dallas has started 0-2 since 2001.

The Cowboys should be able to move the ball against the Houston secondary. They need to stop turning the ball over and punch it into the end zone early to gain confidence. Buehler can’t afford to miss any more kicks, or he won’t last another week.

Houston would love to get Foster going at home, just like against Indy. Dallas has some fearsome defensive players like DeMarcus Ware, who can really pressure the quarterback if not worried about the run.

These teams meet a lot in the preseason, with Houston winning 23-7 this year. Dallas hosted the last regular season game in 2006 (winning 34-6). The only regular season meeting in Houston was in 2002. It was the franchise’s first regular season game, winning 19-10 as 9 ½-point ‘dogs.

Dallas tight end Jason Witten (concussion) and cornerback Mike Jenkins (knee) are both questionable with injuries. Houston star receiver Andre Johnson is probable with a sprained ankle.

Kickoff is at 10 a.m. (PT) on FOX. Weather is not a factor with Reliant Stadium’s retractable roof.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2010, 07:16 PM

NFL Odds: NFL Week 3 betting trends

The New York Jets grabbed the attention of the NFL last Sunday without a TV show or brash behavior when they dominated the New England Patriots, despite several bumps and bruises along the way.

The Jets won’t have much time to celebrate when they hit the road for the first time this season Sunday night to face unbeaten Miami (2-0 straight up and against the NFL spread), looking to snap a three-game series losing skid, both SU and ATS.

New York (1-1 SU&ATS) had won eight of 10 versus the Dolphins and cashed at a 9-1-1 clip until coming up short in both meetings last year, including a 31-27 setback in its last visit as three-point favorites.

Miami returns to Sun Life Stadium, following a pair of close wins on the road against Buffalo and Minnesota.

The trends and angles certainly favor the Jets. They have ‘covered’ at a 16-8-1 clip as division road dogs and sport a 14-5 spread edge in the Sunshine State. New York has also grabbed the green at a 10-2-1 rate in its past 13 road openers.

The Dolphins are 19-28 ATS after winning SU as dogs and 4-12 ATS at home after a SU and ATS win.

Miami has ended on the low side in 11 of its past 14 home openers and in 21 of 31 at Sun Life Stadium in September. The Jets have strayed ‘under’ at a 22-11-1 pace after a SU win of seven points or more.

Trends and angles for the remainder of the Week 3 schedule appear below.

TITANS (1-1, 1-1) at GIANTS (1-1, 1-1)
The New York Giants have rebounded to cash seven of their last eight off a SU loss in September. However, the Tennessee Titans have been worth a look as dogs (19-10), especially against the NFC (17-5-1 ATS).

Tennessee has ended on the down side in 10 of its last 11 on turf. The Titans have topped the ‘total’ at a 36-15-1 pace in non-conference games and New York has followed suit at a 21-13-1 rate as non-conference favorites.

BILLS (0-2, 0-2) at PATRIOTS (1-1, 1-1)
New England has won 13 straight versus Buffalo and cashed in six of the last seven division duels. The Patriots are 9-3-1 ATS at home against the Bills. Buffalo has managed to cash 11 of its last 16 as division dogs on the road.

The ‘under’ is 18-6 in the last 24 meetings. New England has slipped below the number in 19 of 26 as division home favorites and the Bills have dipped ‘under’ in 15 of 22 as division road pups.

BROWNS (0-2, 0-2) at RAVENS (1-1, 1-1)
Baltimore outscored Cleveland 50-3 in two meetings last season. The Browns have cashed five of their last nine against the Ravens and the dog is 10-6.

STEELERS (2-0, 2-0) at BUCCANEERS (2-0, 2-0)
The crippled Pittsburgh Steelers and the upstart Tampa Bay Buccaneers provide the only matchup between unbeatens this Sunday. The Steelers are just 9-21-1 as non-division road favorites, while the Bucs have cashed at a 16-10-1 pace as home dogs and at a 35-23-3 clip at Raymond James Stadium versus non-division foes.

Tampa Bay has slipped ‘under’ in six of its last seven as home dogs and in 19 of 26 as short-enders of three points or less.

BENGALS (1-1, 1-1) at PANTHERS (0-2, 0-2)
Cincinnati is 26-19-1 ATS away from home. Carolina has cashed at a 30-16-1 rate off a double-digit loss.

The Bengals have bounced ‘over’ in six of nine as favorites of 3 ½-points or less and at a 37-18-1 pace after winning SU as underdogs.

FALCONS (1-1, 1-1) at SAINTS (1-0, 1-0 prior to Monday)
Atlanta got the money in its last visit as 11-point dogs while losing 35-27. The home team is 15-23 ATS in the past 38 series scuffles. New Orleans has dropped 15 of its last 18 as division home favorites and the Saints are 21-30-1 ATS at the Superdome overall.

The Falcons are 18-9 ATS in the series when the ‘total’ is 40 or more.

49ERS (0-1, 0-1 prior to Monday) at CHIEFS (2-0, 2-0)
Kansas City has scuffled at home outside its division, failing to cash at a 10-4-1 clip. The Chiefs have ‘covered’ 12 of 15 after a win by three points or less and they are 20-9-1 ATS at Arrowhead Stadium off a SU and ATS victory. San Francisco has come up short in six of its last seven as road favorites while Kansas City is 42-21-1 as home dogs.

LIONS (0-2, 2-0) at VIKINGS (0-2, 0-2)
Minnesota hasn’t lost three straight since 2007 and that was also the last time Detroit cashed three in a row. The Vikings have won five straight and 16 of their last 17 against the Lions, though the dog is 12-9-1 in the last 22 meetings. Minnesota is 6-17 as favorites of 7 ½-points or more and 18-35 ATS after losing SU as favorites.

The ‘under’ has cashed in 11 of the last 16 meetings at **** of America Field. Detroit has jumped the number at a 19-11-1 rate as double-digit dogs and the Vikings have zipped ‘over’ in 28 of 42 chances after losing SU and ATS.

COWBOYS (0-2, 0-2) at TEXANS (2-0, 2-0)
Dallas looks to avoid its first three-game slide since 2004. Houston looks to extend a six-game win streak dating back to 2009. The Cowboys have failed to ‘cover’ 19 of their last 26 on the road against AFC opposition.

Dallas has ended on the high side in 20 of 28 as single-digit dogs and in 19 of 29 on the road versus a non-division foe. The Texans have tipped ‘over’ at a 7-4-1 pace versus NFC rivals.

REDSKINS (1-1, 1-1) at RAMS (0-21, 1-1)
Washington has floundered at an 11-3-2 clip in its first role as favorites. St. Louis will be looking to avenge a 9-7 loss to the Skins last season as 9 ½-point road dogs.

The Rams have flown ‘over’ in eight of 13 as non-division home dogs. The Redskins have headed in the opposite direction at a 10-4-1 rate as road favorites of 3 ½-points or less.

EAGLES (1-1, 0-2) at JAGUARS (1-1, 1-1)
Jacksonville has ‘covered’ 17 of 25 after losing by 14 points or more. The Jaguars have also cashed 19 of 29 at home versus NFC opponents. Philadelphia is 0-7 as favorites off a SU win but an ATS loss.

The Eagles have ended on the down side in 22 of 30 games after scoring 28 points or more and in 14 of 20 on the road after allowing 28 points or more. Conversely, Jacksonville has topped the ‘total’ in 22 of 36 as single-digit dogs.

COLTS (1-1, 1-1) at BRONCOS (1-1, 1-1)
Indianapolis is 15-5 as road favorites in September and 30-17-2 on the road versus non-division foes. Denver has come away with the cash in 11 of its last dozen games as non-division home dogs of more than three points.

CHARGERS (1-1, 1-1) at SEAHAWKS (1-1, 1-1)
San Diego has passed 25 of its last 35 non-conference road tests ATS and the Chargers are 32-15-1 ATS after winning by 15 points or more. Seattle is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games against AFC competition. The Seahawks have also ‘covered’ at a 16-9-1 pace as dogs after losing SU and ATS.

San Diego has blown ‘over’ in seven of 10 as non-division road ‘chalk’ and at a 25-16-1 pace as non-conference favorites.

RAIDERS 91-1, 0-2) at CARDINALS (1-1, 1-1)
Arizona has cashed 17 of 26 as home favorites after a SU loss and seven of eight as favorites off a double-digit ATS loss. Oakland is 0-7 ATS as non-conference dogs of less than 10.

The Raiders have slipped below the limit in 13 of 16 non-conference showdowns. However, the Cardinals have zipped ‘over’ in 12 of 18 as favorites versus the AFC.

PACKERS (2-0, 2-0) at BEARS (2-0, 2-0)
The underdog has won five of six Monday night meetings between these two bitter division rivals. Green Bay swept the season series last year, winning 21-15 at home as 4 ½-point favorites and 21-14 in the Windy City as four-point choices. The Bears are just 5-13 ATS at home versus the Packers.

The ‘over’ is 23-15 in the past 38 clashes and the teams have gone above the limit in five of six Monday night meetings. The Packers have skipped ‘over’ in 17 of 25 as road favorites of 3 ½-points or less.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-22-2010, 08:45 PM

NFL Betting: Falcons travel to New Orleans

The defending world champion New Orleans Saints continue to win games, but they haven’t been covering pointspreads in the regular season.

The 2-0 Saints are 3-9 ATS during their past 12 regular-season matchups. The Saints host 1-1 Atlanta Sunday at 10 a.m. (PT). The Saints are four-point favorites with the ‘over/under’ at 49 ½, the highest NFL odds total of the week.

New Orleans has defeated Atlanta in seven of the past nine meetings, including sweeping the Falcons last year 35-27 at home and 26-23 on the road.

The Falcons covered both games, though, as they were double-digit ‘dogs. The ‘over’ has cashed in four of the last five meetings.

The Saints nipped San Francisco, 25-22, on a field goal at the gun this past Monday night but failed to cover as 4 ½-point road ‘chalk.’ The combined 47 points went ‘over’ the 43 ½-point total.

Reggie Bush suffered a broken right leg in the victory. The early time table on his return is four-to-six weeks. DeShawn Wynn is expected to serve as the primary backup to running back Pierre Thomas. Chris Ivory is in the mix, too, but he’s nursing a sprained knee.

Atlanta lost a running back, too, during its 41-7 home romp against Arizona this past Sunday. Backup tailback Jerious Norwood will miss the rest of the season after suffering a torn ACL in his right knee.

The Falcons easily covered as seven-point favorites against the Cardinals. Jason Snelling rushed for 129 yards and scored three touchdowns. The Falcons ran for 221 yards despite star tailback Michael Turner leaving in the first half with a groin strain after rushing for 75 yards. He’s expected to be ready for the Saints.

Matt Ryan completed 21-of-32 for 225 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.

The combined 48 points went ‘over’ the 43-point closing total. The Falcons had gone ‘under’ in their previous seven games.

Atlanta wide receiver Roddy White is tied with Dallas’ Miles Austin for the lead in receptions with 20.White also ranks fifth in receiving yards with 189.

The Falcons, however, are going to have to contend with a Saints defense that is healthy and faster than last year with excellent cornerbacks. Ryan doesn’t have as many weapons as Drew Brees does even with Bush sidelined.

The Saints led the NFL last year in total offense averaging 403.8 yards per game and in scoring at 31.9 points per contest. They were the only team to average more than 30 points per game and more than 400 yards.

Brees has all of his receiving weapons back, including Marques Colston, Robert Meachem and tight end Jeremy Shockey. Sean Payton could be the most innovative offensive head coach in the league.

The Falcons blitzed heavily in their first two games against Pittsburgh quarterback Dennis Dixon and Arizona quarterback Derek Anderson. They might have more respect for Brees. The Falcons did force three interceptions and had five sacks versus the Cardinals. The Falcons held the Steelers and Cardinals to a combined 16 points during regulation.

After winning their first Super Bowl, the Saints are 2-0 for the second straight year. That’s the first time they’ve accomplished back-to-back 2-0 starts in their 44-year history.

The Saints, though, have covered only one of their last seven NFC South Division matchups. The ‘under’ has cashed during New Orleans’ past five division games.

Atlanta has covered five of the past six times it has met a foe with a winning mark. The Falcons are used to playing in a dome. They have covered five of the last seven times when playing on artificial turf.

New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last seven September games.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-23-2010, 05:24 PM

Wells return could give Arizona the edge

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OAKLAND RAIDERS (1-1)
at ARIZONA CARDINALS (1-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT, Line: Arizona -4.5, Total: 39.5

Two struggling offenses duel in the Arizona desert on Sunday afternoon. The Raiders announced Wednesday that they will start Bruce Gradkowski in place of Jason Campbell, whom Oakland traded for in the offseason. The Cardinals got some good news when top RB Beanie Wells declared himself 100 percent recovered from his knee injury that has sidelined him for two games.

The Raiders will likely be without RB Michael Bush again due to his thumb injury, but Darren McFadden has thrived in the starting role. McFadden’s 240 rushing yards are the second-most in the NFL behind Arian Foster. If Arizona chooses to stack the box, Gradkowski should have success against an Arizona secondary that allowed three TD passes to Atlanta last week.

Although Wells’ backup Tim Hightower has played pretty well (218 total yards and 2 TD), he fumbled twice in the season-opening win at St. Louis. Wells (793 rush yds, 7 TD in rookie season) and Hightower figure to each get a fair share of carries, which should suit QB Derek Anderson just fine. Anderson was 17-for-31 for 161 yards and two INT last week, and he may be without starting WR Steve Breaston who missed Wednesday’s practice with a sore knee.

The Raiders have won the past two meetings convincingly (41-20 at Arizona in 2002 and 22-9 in Oakland in 2006), but Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt knows how to regroup after a loss. According to FoxSheets:

Whisenhunt is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of ARIZONA. The average score was ARIZONA 31.8, OPPONENT 21.3 - (Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-23-2010, 05:26 PM

Saints RB woes make for difficult cover

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ATLANTA FALCONS (1-1)
at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-0)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: New Orleans -3.5, Total: 50

The top dogs in the NFC South lock horns Sunday in New Orleans. Atlanta is riding high after a 41-7 romp over Arizona last week and the Saints have a short week of preparation after escaping San Francisco with a 25-22 win on Monday night. Both teams have some injury woes to key running backs, putting more onus on the quarterbacks to perform at a high level.

Falcons RB Michael Turner has been limited in practice this week with a groin injury, but is expected to carry a full workload on Sunday. Turner had a huge game at New Orleans last year, rushing for 151 yards (7.6 YPC) and a touchdown. Speaking of huge games, QB Matt Ryan is coming off a 225-yard, three-TD game against the Cardinals.

The big Saints news this week was RB Reggie Bush fracturing his leg which will keep him out 4-to-6 weeks. Pierre Thomas will continue to be the team’s main rusher, but there is not much depth with newly-signed Ladell Betts and rookie Chris Ivory who are dealing with injuries of their own. But there is nothing wrong with the passing game, led by Drew Brees, who has thrown for 491 yards and three scores this season. Since signing with New Orleans in 2006, Brees has won seven of eight games against Atlanta, with 2,343 passing yards, 16 TD and just 5 INT.

Although these teams have split their 18 meetings since 1992, Atlanta is 13-5 ATS over this stretch. New Orleans won both meetings in 2009, but the Falcons covered the spread both times. This FoxSheets trend shows why the Falcons are expected to cover again:

NEW ORLEANS is 19-42 ATS (-27.2 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 19.7, OPPONENT 21.7 - (Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets show numerous trends suggesting the Under is the play for this contest, including: Play Under - Any team against the total (ATLANTA) – marginal winning team from last season (51% to 60%) playing a team that had a winning record, in conference games. (97-50 since 1983.) (66%, +42 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-23-2010, 05:27 PM

Some new QBs are worth Sunday plays

quartet of teams will have new starting quarterbacks this weekend due to either injury or ineffectiveness. Three of these replacements have made starts for their respective clubs in recent years, and the results may surprise you.
Let’s start with veteran Charlie Batch in Pittsburgh, who gets the nod as a result of injuries to both Dennis Dixon and Byron Leftwich and the suspension of Ben Roethlisberger. The 2-0 Steelers (also 2-0 ATS) are a small favorite at surprising Tampa Bay, who is also 2-0 (1-0-1 ATS).

From 2005-2007, Batch made four spot starts for Pittsburgh and the Steelers went 3-1 both ATS and SU in those contests. In those years, the Steelers were 21-23 ATS in all other regular season games while posting a 26-18 record SU. Just like Dixon before him, Batch will not be asked to carry the team on his shoulders. All the Steelers are expecting of him is to manage the game, not turn the ball over and let the dominating defense put them in a position to win, something he has been able to do effectively in the past.

Buffalo (0-2 ATS, 0-2 SU) travels to New England (1-1, 1-1) where it is a double-digit underdog to its AFC East rival. Ryan Fitzpatrick will get the start over Trent Edwards as the Harvard alum makes a homecoming of sorts. Fitzpatrick made eight starts for the Bills last season and led the team to four victories while going 5-2-1 ATS. Included in those eight games was a 17-10 home loss to the Patriots, which was right on the number. Fitzpatrick was a respectable 17-for-25 (68%) for 178 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT in that game. Buffalo performed much worse in its other eight games last year, going 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS. Facing a suspect New England defense that could not stop the Jets last weekend, Fitzpatrick should be able to move the ball and score some points to keep this game close.

After leading Oakland to a 16-14 win over St. Louis in relief last week, Bruce Gradkowski will be under center from the outset this week when the Raiders travel to Arizona to take on the Cardinals. Gradkowski made four starts for Oakland last season, going 2-2 both ATS and SU. The Raiders were 6-6 ATS and 3-9 SU in their other 12 games a year ago. While the ATS numbers don’t jump out at you, the fact that he has been able to win games for the Raiders is an encouraging sign, especially this Sunday when they are getting points against a suspect Arizona team (1-1 both SU and ATS) that is struggling to find its way with the loss of retired QB Kurt Warner.

When you add the numbers up for their 16 starts with their current clubs, Batch, Fitzpatrick and Gradkowski are a combined 10-5-1 ATS, 9-7 SU.

While rookie Jimmy Clausen will be making his first professional start for Carolina (0-2 ATS, 0-2 SU) this Sunday at home against Cincinnati (1-1, 1-1), it’s interesting to look at how the Panthers’ season went a year ago. Veteran Jake Delhomme started the first 11 games and the Panthers were a disappointing 4-7 both ATS and SU. With Delhomme sidelined with a broken finger, Matt Moore stepped in to lead the Panthers to four wins in five starts the rest of the way while going a perfect 5-0 ATS. This year, it is Moore who has struggled, and Clausen who will be asked to do what Moore did last year. The Panthers are a home underdog this weekend, which has been a great angle so far this year. Home dogs are 9-3-1 ATS, 7-6 SU after two weeks of the season.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-24-2010, 05:14 PM

Depleted Chargers try to cover in hostile Seattle

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SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (1-1)
at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (1-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT, Line: San Diego -5.5, Total: 44

Former division foes meet for just the second time since 2002. After a disappointing Week 1 loss at Kansas City, the Chargers came back strong with a 38-13 crushing of Jacksonville on their home turf. Seattle started the season with a eye-opening 31-6 win over division-favorite San Francisco, but fell flat in Denver and lost 31-14.

San Diego has not been at full strength due to holdouts Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill, and Sunday the Chargers might also be missing top RB Ryan Mathews who is dealing with a high ankle sprain. Fullback Mike Tolbert will get the majority of hand-offs after his 16-carry, 82-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Jaguars. Speedy RB Darren Sproles will also get his touches after gaining 100 yards on just five carries and four catches last week. There is some good news for Philip Rivers and company as WR Malcom Floyd is expected to play through his hamstring injury.

Although the score wouldn’t indicate so, Seattle’s offense actually moved the ball fairly well against Denver, gaining 339 yards and converting 7-of-11 third downs. They only scored two touchdowns because QB Matt Hasselbeck tossed three interceptions. Hasselbeck may not improve this week considering he will be without his blind-side protector, first-round draft pick LT Russell Okung, who is out with an ankle injury.

San Diego won the last meeting in Seattle, a 20-17 win on Christmas Eve 2006 and this FoxSheets trend expects San Diego to win again in Sunday’s rematch:

Play Against - Home teams (SEATTLE) - off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses. (92-46 since 1983.) (66.7%, +41.4 units. Rating = 3*).

And based on last week’s turnover story, where San Diego forced six and Seattle committed four, FoxSheets likes the Under:

Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN DIEGO) - after a game where they forced 5 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers. (32-10 since 1983.) (76.2%, +21 units. Rating = 2*).

Announcement

The Bum's NFL Week 3 (9/26 - 9/27) BEST BETS !

The Bum's NFL Week 3 (9/26 - 9/27) BEST BETS !

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