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The Bum's WEEK # 3 BEST BETS + NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (9/16 - 9/18) !

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  • #16
    Caught Looking Ahead - Week 3

    There weren’t any nail biters for us to really enjoy last weekend in college football. In fact, the only game that had any major national interest last Saturday that went down to the wire was Michigan’s 28-24 win as a 3 ½-point road pup against the Fighting Irish.

    My first pick for a hangover play this week would have been the Hurricanes, but they take the week off before heading out to Pittsburgh. Don’t worry about that letdown spot not being here for us this week as there are plenty of games where teams are looking ahead to their next opponent.

    Bearcat Concentration…

    The Butch Jones era started on a down note for Cincinnati after losing 28-14 at Fresno State. And while the Bearcats are coming into their battle with North Carolina State as 1 ½-point road pups, their minds might be elsewhere. That tends to happen when you know you’re playing host to the Sooners the following weekend.

    This might not be such a big deal for Zach Collaros under center as he’s looked good throwing the ball with a 60.3 completion percentage with 349 yards and three touchdowns. Cincy’s offensive line, on the other hand, could very well find themselves thinking of Oklahoma’s big, bad d-line.

    The Bearcats have been just plain awful in the offensive trenches in 2010. How bad has it been? Cincy’s o-line has allowed Collaros to get sacked 10 times this season. This was a unit that gave up 15 sacks in all of 2009. The Wolfpack only had two sacks last weekend against Central Florida with a suspect defensive line. Yet they forced the Knights into throwing three interceptions.

    As far as gamblers should care, Cincinnati is 3-15 straight up and 10-8 against the spread when posted as a road underdog since 1996. However, the ‘Cats are 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in this role.

    Slow on the Mountain…

    West Virginia was flat out lucky to come back last week to pick up a 24-21 overtime road win over the Thundering Herd. Now gamblers have to debate on whether to take the Mountaineers as 10-point home favorites against border rival Maryland.

    This isn’t a tough game for the Mountaineers as they’ve won and covered the spread in their last three games against the Terps. But West Virginia does have bigger fish to fry in its Sept. 28 trip to Baton Rouge to face the Tigers of the SEC.

    So why could this be a bad game for Bill Stewart’s crew? Well, the ‘Neers were ugly on offense against Marshall last weekend. They found themselves turning the ball over on downs in the first quarter when they had a certain field goal to go up 6-0. Instead, they were down 7-3 to the Herd. The Mountaineers had three turnovers in total that were either due to turnovers or fumbles and they were lucky that Marshall only turned it into seven points.

    Plus, the Mountaineers are just 3-2 SU as home faves against the ACC. Gamblers have been wise to fade West Virginia in those games since they were 1-4 ATS.

    Pining for Smurf Turf…

    It’s not every day that two teams have a date circled to meet up in Boise, but Oregon State and the Broncos have done just that for Sept. 25. Both teams also are double-digit favorites this weekend.

    The Beavers welcome Louisville to town as 19 ½-point home favorites this weekend. They haven’t played since their 30-21 loss to TCU at Cowboys Stadium to open the season. While that was a quality effort, Oregon State let the Horned Frogs convert 11 of their 17 third downs. If the Cardinals can even do half as good in moving the chains, they could keep themselves within two scores.

    As far as Boise State is concerned, they’ve played more in the media in the last week off because the Hokies lost to James Madison. The Broncs did need a late Kellen Moore touchdown to win 33-30 over Virginia Tech. But will that really matter for the Broncos as 23 ½-point road favorites against Wyoming?

    The Cowboys may have lost 34-7 at Texas last weekend, but they played them very tough. Plus, Austyn Carta-Samuels can keep opposing defenses honest with his arm and ability to get out of the pocket to run up the field.

    Now I know that there are going to be a lot of people that will say that the Broncos will cover easily. Yet Boise State has gone just 3-3 SU and 0-6 ATS when listed as a road pup after a bye week during the regular season going back to 1998. Don’t be shocked if Wyoming covers the large number in this spot.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #17
      Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
      09/11/10 38-39-0 49.35% -2450 Detail
      09/10/10 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
      09/09/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
      09/06/10 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
      09/05/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
      09/04/10 26-27-1 49.06% -1850 Detail
      09/03/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
      09/02/10 6-7-1 46.15% -850 Detail
      Totals 80-83-2 49.08% -5650

      Thursday, September 16Game Score Status Pick Amount

      Cincinnati - 7:30 PM ET North Carolina State -1.5 500 *****
      North Carolina State - Under 55 500 *****


      Good Luck Tonight !
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #18
        Pead's return gives Cincy better chance Thursday

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        CINCINNATI BEARCATS (1-1)
        at NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK (2-0)

        Kickoff: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. EDT, Line: NC State -2, Total: 55

        Cincinnati’s top running back Isaiah Pead is expected to return to action Thursday night when the Bearcats visit North Carolina State. Pead has been dealing with knee problems for a few months, and missed the last game against Indiana State due to swelling in his knee. The junior did not look 100 percent in the season-opening loss to Fresno State, gaining just 36 yards on 10 carries. Last season Pead rushed for 806 yards (6.7 YPC) and scored 11 total touchdowns.

        Pead will impact this game, but the outcome will be based more on the performances of the quarterbacks, which are two of the better signal callers in the nation. Cincinnati QB Zach Collaros has a career completion rate of 69 percent and has thrown 13 TD and just two interceptions as a collegiate.

        NC State’s Russell Wilson is regarded as one of the nation’s top-10 quarterbacks, but he certainly didn’t play like it in last week’s win at UCF. Wilson completed just 10-of-30 passes for 105 yards. That’s a far cry from his 252 passing YPG from a year ago, when he racked up 31 passing touchdowns (4th-most in the nation).

        NC State doesn’t usually play well as the favorite in an evenly-matched game. According to FoxSheets, the play is Cincinnati:

        NC STATE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992. The average score was NC STATE 18.6, OPPONENT 25.1 - (Rating = 1*).

        NC State was very opportunistic against UCF in forcing five turnovers, but neither school has a great defense. FoxSheets shows this trend that bodes well for the Over.

        NC STATE is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NC STATE 30.0, OPPONENT 30.5 - (Rating = 2*).
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #19
          Man, it really sounds like NCSt. and under! I think I'll join you! Good luck, Bum! Thanks for all the work!

          Comment


          • #20
            HEY UDOG......well i hope am on the right side.......but it sure looks that way.......good luck to US and anyone else on the train to victory........
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • #21
              Only eight BCS teams remain undefeated ATS and SU

              After two weeks of play, eight of the 65 members of BCS conferences are 2-0 both ATS and SU. By conference, they are:
              ACC: Maryland
              Big Ten: (2) Ohio State, (20) Michigan
              Pac 10: (5) Oregon, (24) Arizona
              SEC: (1) Alabama, (13) South Carolina, Kentucky

              Among these eight, Arizona faces the toughest test this week as the 24th ranked Wildcats host the 9th-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes in the weekend’s lone matchup featuring a pair of top-25 teams. So far this season, there have been four such matchups played on campus (three neutral site matchups) and home teams are 4-0 both ATS and SU. In three of those games, the home team was also the higher ranked team. Last week, South Carolina (24) downed higher-ranked Georgia (22) but the Gamecocks were a small favorite. Arizona is getting points from Iowa.

              Michigan, Oregon and South Carolina are all off the big board this week as they each face FCS schools.

              Through the first two weeks of the season, the ACC has been the object of much criticism for its failure to record a win over either a ranked opponent or a member of a fellow BCS conference. While the ACC has seen a lot of parity and has had plenty of teams populating the back half of the polls in recent years, the conference has been unable to knock off elite level opponents and produce legitimate national title contenders. Let’s take a look at how the ACC has fared ATS and O/U in its five games against ranked opponents this year.

              In three games vs. top-10 teams, ACC squads have not only gone 0-3 ATS, their defenses have been rather helpless, allowing 38.7 PPG. All three of these games have gone over the total:

              (3) Boise State 33, (10) Virginia Tech 30
              (10) Oklahoma 47, (17) Florida State 17
              (2) Ohio State 36, (12) Miami 24

              However, in the two matchups against teams ranked in the final 10 places of the Top 25, the ACC schools are 2-0 ATS, with one game going over and one under:

              (21) LSU 30, (18) North Carolina 24
              (16) USC 17, Virginia 14

              This week’s slate of action includes four ACC opponents facing ranked teams, with Duke hosting top-ranked Alabama and three schools visiting opponents ranked between 16 and 25:

              Clemson at (16) Auburn
              Wake Forest at (19) Stanford
              Maryland at (21) West Virginia
              All are underdogs of a touchdown or more.

              Nationally, this weekend will include a healthy diet of conference games. Early trends point to low-scoring affairs when familiar foes take the field in BCS conferences. Through five conference games in BCS leagues, four of the games have gone under. The exception was last week’s game between Duke and Wake Forest in which the 52.5 total was surpassed with about five minutes left in the first half of Wake’s 54-48 win over the Blue Devils.
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • #22
                College Football Odds: Cal visits Nevada

                Two unbeaten teams meet on college football betting Friday night in an ESPN 2 televised game as Nevada hosts California. The Bears have dominated this series winning 22 of the 24 all-time matchups including 12 straight.

                This should be a high-scoring matchup considering both teams are averaging just about 50 points per game.

                California is a 3-point favorite with a total of 66 at *** Global.

                California scored 52 points in their opening win over UC Davis and came back last week to score 52 in a win over Colorado. Nevada scored 49 points in their opener against Eastern Washington and last week they scored 51 in a win over Colorado State.

                California has looked very good in their two NCAA football betting games as quarterback Kevin Riley has thrown seven TDs and no interceptions so far. Cal can also run the ball as they have Shane Vereen, but he hasn’t been needed much in the first two routs.

                The Golden Bears' defense has also been good with the unit allowing a total of 89 yards on the ground in two games. The Bears face a huge challenge this week though against a Nevada team that is the sixth-best rushing team in the country.

                Nevada is led by quarterback Colin Kaepernick who had two rushing and two passing touchdowns in the opening win against Eastern Washington, repeating the same scoring stats against Colorado State. The defense for Nevada played well last week against Colorado State, but that is not saying much considering the Rams are one of the worst teams in the country.

                Here are some betting stats for Friday’s game:

                •The Golden Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in September.
                •The Golden Bears are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games.
                •The Golden Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five versus the WAC.
                •The Wolf Pack is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall.
                •The Wolf Pack is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 home games.
                •The Wolf Pack is 3-8 ATS in the last 11 non-conference games.
                On the 'totals' scoreboard, the 'over' is 4-1 in the Golden Bears' last five games overall. The 'over' is also 12-3-1 in the Golden Bears' last 16 non-conference games. The 'under' is 4-1 in Nevada’s last five home games.
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • #23
                  College Football Odds: Arkansas at Georgia

                  Georgia has won eight or more games 13 straight years, the longest streak in the nation. But the Bulldogs face a key test when they host 12th-ranked Arkansas in an SEC matchup Saturday at 9 a.m. PT. The Bulldogs are 2 ½-point college betting favorites with the ‘over/under’ at 54 ½.

                  Georgia fell out of the Top 25 after losing 17-6 to South Carolina last week as three-point road underdogs. The combined 23 points dipped well ‘under’ the 44 ½-point total.

                  It’s the first time since 2001 the Bulldogs have been unranked this early in the season. They were 22nd until falling to the Gamecocks.

                  There’s a good chance Georgia, 1-1, could get back into the Top-25 with a victory against the unbeaten Razorbacks and their high-flying quarterback Ryan Mallett.

                  The Bulldogs opened the year with a 55-7 thrashing of UL-Lafayette, covering as 28 ½-point home favorites. The combined 62 points went ‘over’ the 51 ½-point total.

                  Sparked by Mallett, who has thrown six touchdown passes and ranks fourth in the country in passing yards with 701, the Razorbacks beat Tennessee Tech 44-3 and Louisiana-Monroe, 31-7.

                  Arkansas, though, failed to cover either game, both of which were at home. The Razorbacks were minus 49 ½-points against Tennessee Tech and were minus 33 1/2 versus Monroe. There was no total on the Tennessee Tech matchup. The ‘under’ cashed in the Monroe game with the total closing at 59 ½.

                  This will be the Razorbacks’ first true test. Mallett, who was fifth in the nation last year in passing yards and had a 30-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio, is in the argument for best college quarterback. But Arkansas isn’t just about its star junior quarterback.

                  Greg Childs is one of the best receivers in the SEC with 16 receptions. Joe Adams is a dangerous deep threat averaging 23.8 yards per catch. D.J. Williams could be the best tight end in the conference. He’s hauled in eight passes.

                  Zach Hocker has been perfect on 10 PATs and one field goal attempt, while Dylan Breeding is averaging 45.7 punting. Arkansas has the top defense in the SEC giving up an average of 187 ½ yards per game, which rates fourth-best in the nation. Linebacker Jerry Franklin leads the way with 15 tackles.

                  Arkansas will be without running back and kick returner Dennis Johnson, who is out with a bowel injury.

                  The Razorbacks have a revenge motive. Georgia won last year’s game, 52-41, as two-point road underdogs. The combined 93 points sailed ‘over’ the 54-point total. Mallett passed for a school-record 408 yards in that loss with five touchdowns.

                  Star wide receiver A.J. Green hauled in two touchdowns for the Bulldogs. Green, however, is suspended for four games by the NCAA for selling a game jersey to a sports agent.

                  The Bulldogs also may be without Shaun Chapas, their starting fullback. He’s ‘questionable’ because of a sprained ankle.

                  Georgia ranks last in the SEC in rushing and 89th in the country averaging 122 ½ yards. The Bulldogs’ veteran offensive line has been disappointing. But there is hope the ground game will pick up now that Caleb King and Washaun Ealey will be paired up for the first time.

                  Ealey was suspended from Georgia’s opener because of an offseason arrest, while King missed last week’s South Carolina game due to a sprained ankle.

                  The Razorbacks are 7-2 ATS as underdogs during the past two years. Georgia has failed to cover in 10 of its last 14 home contests.

                  The ‘under’ has cashed in six of Arkansas’ last seven road games. Georgia has gone ‘under’ in 26 of its last 37 September games.

                  The early weather forecast for Saturday is clear with temperatures possibly getting into the low 90s.
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Book: Public backing Wolfpack in Thursday nighter



                    Cincinnati Bearcats at NC State Wolfpack

                    Line/total: We opened NC St -1.5 on Monday morning. We've booked nearly 70 percent on NC State and have gone to 2 on the game. So far the public is backing the home team in this game.

                    As for the total, we opened 55 and just this morning booked sharp action under that number. We went to 54.5 and are now using 54.

                    Key Injuries: Cincinnati RB Isaiah Pead missed last game and is listed as probable. Teammate LB Alex Delisi is out indefinitely.

                    NC State - DL Sylvester Crawford, OL RJ Mattes, WR Quintin Payton, RB James Washington and RB Brandon Barnes are all doubtful. Backup QB Mike Glennon is probable.

                    Comments: Cincinnati is making its second road trip of the year, but this one is on a short week. They lost and failed to cover at Fresno State in Week 1.

                    They played on Saturday, but it was against Indiana State and I'm sure they spent some of last week looking ahead to this matchup, a primetime game on ESPN against a much tougher foe.

                    NC State has only played one lined game, traveling to Central Florida. They won by 7 points and, no question, they put more into last week's win than did Cincinnati.

                    Prop of the Game: Zach Collaros (Cincinnati) Total Completions - 20.5
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Swept the board last night as NC St. and the Under came in nicely......

                      Tonight look for a 4-0 night.....am leaving the broom out for another sweep at the end of the night........

                      Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
                      09/16/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
                      09/11/10 38-39-0 49.35% -2450 Detail
                      09/10/10 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
                      09/09/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
                      09/06/10 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
                      09/05/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
                      09/04/10 26-27-1 49.06% -1850 Detail
                      09/03/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
                      09/02/10 6-7-1 46.15% -850 Detail
                      Totals 82-83-2 49.70% -4650

                      Friday, September 17Game Score Status Pick Amount

                      Kansas - 8:00 PM ET Kansas +5 500 *****
                      Southern Mississippi - Under 53 500 *****

                      California - 10:00 PM ET California -2.5 500 *****
                      Nevada - Under 65 500 *****

                      Also have this parlay running from last night:


                      Ticket #: 82027205] PARLAY (6 TEAMS) RR (1P-6T)

                      09/16/2010 @ 04:55 PM CFB [102] NC STATE -2 1.91 ( W )

                      09/16/2010 @ 04:55 PM CFB [102] TOTAL u54½ 1.91 ( W )
                      (CINCINNATI U vrs NC STATE)

                      09/17/2010 @ 05:00 PM CFB [103] KANSAS +6 1.91

                      09/17/2010 @ 05:00 PM CFB [104] TOTAL u51½ 1.91
                      (KANSAS vrs SO MISSISSIPPI)

                      09/17/2010 @ 07:00 PM CFB [105] CALIFORNIA -2½ 1.91

                      09/17/2010 @ 07:00 PM CFB [106] TOTAL u65½ 1.91
                      (CALIFORNIA vrs NEVADA)
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        get em SD....like the same sides myself, laying off the totals.....

                        give em hell and have a good weekend


                        Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Play the under in Cal-Nevada expected shootout

                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                          CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS (2-0)
                          at NEVADA WOLF PACK (2-0)

                          Kickoff: Friday, 10:00 p.m. EDT, Line: California -2.5, Total: 66

                          After coming off a week where both schools dismantled universities in Colorado, Cal travels to Nevada in a matchup of high-scoring unbeaten schools. Cal crushed Colorado last week 52-7 and Nevada breezed to an easy 51-6 over Colorado State.

                          Both teams are averaging 50+ points per game this year due to the stellar play of their quarterbacks. Cal’s Kevin Riley has 455 passing yards, seven TD and no picks, which places him third in the nation in passing efficiency (205.27). Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick gained 402 total yards (241 passing, 161 rushing) with four TD (two pass, two rush) in his last game.

                          Both teams also feature strong running games. The Bears also have do-it-all RB Shane Vereen who has 172 total yards and five touchdowns in two games of somewhat limited action due to the lopsided outcomes. Vai Taua has 169 rushing yards (6.3 YPC) and three touchdowns for the Wolf Pack.

                          With two equally impressive offenses, this game will be decided on the defensive side of the ball. Cal appears to have the edge here, considering it has only allowed 10 points in two games while Nevada gave up 24 points and 432 yards to Eastern Washington two games ago. In terms of last season, Cal ranked 72nd in total defense, while Nevada clocked in at 96th.

                          FoxSheets provides another reason to pick California:

                          Bears coach Jeff Tedford is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) off a home win by 17 points or more as the coach of CALIFORNIA. The average score was CALIFORNIA 37.1, OPPONENT 18.0 - (Rating = 2*).

                          This FoxSheets trend shows that due to Cal’s defensive dominance so far this year, the Under is a safe bet.

                          Play Under - Any team against the total (CALIFORNIA) - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. (48-19 over the last 10 seasons.) (71.6%, +27.1 units. Rating = 3*).
                          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Quigley injury shouldn't prevent KU from covering

                            --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                            KANSAS JAYHAWKS (1-1)
                            at SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES (1-1)

                            Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Southern Miss -5.5, Total: 49

                            After lackluster season-opening games followed by strong bounce-back contests, Kansas and Southern Miss are each looking to string together a win streak as the two meet at M.M. Roberts Stadium on Friday night. Kansas lost 6-3 in its opener against North Dakota State, but recovered last week and upset then-No. 15 Georgia Tech 28-25. Southern Miss was crushed by South Carolina 41-13 to start the season then took out its frustrations on FCS school Prairie View A&M in a 34-7 thrashing last week.

                            The big injury news in this game is that Kansas starting RB Angus Quigley is questionable with a leg injury. If he is unable to go, talented freshman James Sims will likely pick up the slack. Sims rushed 17 times for 101 yards and a touchdown against Georgia Tech. Speaking of freshmen, fellow frosh QB Jordan Webb has also played well since replacing Kale Pick during the loss to North Dakota State. Webb was 18-for-29 with 179 yards, three TD and one INT in last week’s win.

                            The story with Southern Miss is the mindset of its star receiver DeAndre Brown. Head coach Larry Fedora publicly criticized Brown’s performance against South Carolina (4-65-1, but his 29-yard TD came with 1:33 left in the game with his team down 41-6). Brown responded with a five-catch, 100-yard, one-TD performance against Prairie View and said he is now playing “with a chip on his shoulder.” He will need to be focused and on the same page as QB Austin Davis for Southern Miss to pull out a win Friday.Southern Miss racked up 464 yards, while allowing just 211 yards in its last game. Although this performance should be a positive factor heading into the week, FoxSheets points out the historical trend that actually favors Kansas:

                            SOUTHERN MISS is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. The average score was SOUTHERN MISS 25.5, OPPONENT 22.0 - (Rating = 1*).

                            FoxSheets also likes the Over on Friday:

                            KANSAS is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The average score was KANSAS 35.0, OPPONENT 33.6 - (Rating = 3*).
                            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Will Texas keep Saturday's game Under 55?

                              --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                              TEXAS LONGHORNS (-3)
                              at TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS

                              Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT, Total: 55

                              Texas looks to avenge its painful last-second loss at Texas Tech from two years ago when the Big 12 rivals hook up for an ESPN primetime showdown in Lubbock. Texas Tech knocked the Longhorns out of the national championship picture in 2008 when Michael Crabtree scored the game-winning TD with one second left to give TTU a 39-33 win.

                              Texas has shown a more balanced attack minus Colt McCoy, with 48 percent of its yardage on the ground. Fozzy Whittaker was named the starting running back earlier this week, but Texas will also give the ball to Cody Johnson and Tre’ Newton. Considering sophomore quarterback Garrett Gilbert is making his first start on an opponent’s home field, the Longhorns would be wise to control the clock with their strong running game averaging 182 YPG this year.The Red Raiders like to air it out three times as much as they run the ball. QB Taylor Potts has thrown for 652 yards and seven touchdowns without throwing an INT in his 87 attempts. Potts threw for 420 yards and three touchdowns in last season’s 10-point loss to Texas.Texas is a mediocre 9-9 playing in Lubbock since 1974, but this FoxSheets trend favors a Longhorns win on Saturday night.

                              Play Against - Home underdogs (TEXAS TECH) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game. (36-13 over the last 10 seasons.) (73.5%, +21.7 units. Rating = 2*).

                              And Texas’ likely strategy to run the football is just one of the reasons to expect the game to go below the 55-point Total. FoxSheets shows two other trends favoring the Under:

                              Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TEXAS TECH) - first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season. (40-13 over the last 10 seasons.) (75.5%, +25.7 units. Rating = 3*).

                              Play Under - Any team against the total (TEXAS) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. (82-41 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +36.9 units. Rating = 2*).
                              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Early games up to 4pm Eastern:

                                Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
                                09/17/10 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
                                09/16/10 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
                                09/11/10 38-39-0 49.35% -2450 Detail
                                09/10/10 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
                                09/09/10 2-2-0 50.00% -100 Detail
                                09/06/10 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detail
                                09/05/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
                                09/04/10 26-27-1 49.06% -1850 Detail
                                09/03/10 3-1-0 75.00% +950 Detail
                                09/02/10 6-7-1 46.15% -850 Detail
                                Totals 83-86-2 49.11% -5800

                                Saturday, September 18Game Score Status Pick Amount

                                Arkansas - 12:00 PM ET Arkansas +2 500
                                Georgia -

                                Georgia Tech - 12:00 PM ET Georgia Tech +2.5 500
                                North Carolina -

                                Ohio - 12:00 PM ET Ohio +29.5 500
                                Ohio State - Under 45.5 500

                                Kent State - 12:00 PM ET Kent State +21 500
                                Penn State - Over 45.5 500

                                Connecticut - 12:00 PM ET Connecticut -5.5 500
                                Temple - Under 49 500

                                Maryland - 12:00 PM ET Maryland +10 500
                                West Virginia - Over 43.5 500

                                Northern Illinois - 12:00 PM ET Northern Illinois +7 500
                                Illinois -

                                Iowa State - 12:00 PM ET Kansas State -3.5 500
                                Kansas State -

                                Ball State - 12:00 PM ET Purdue -16.5 500
                                Purdue - Under 47.5 500

                                North Texas - 12:00 PM ET Army -5.5 500
                                Army -

                                Vanderbilt - 12:21 PM ET Mississippi -11.5 500
                                Mississippi - Over 43.5 500

                                East Carolina - 1:30 PM ET East Carolina +20.5 500
                                Virginia Tech - Under 60.5 500

                                Colorado State - 3:30 PM ET Miami (Ohio) -7 500
                                Miami (Ohio) -

                                Hawaii - 3:30 PM ET Colorado -13.5 500
                                Colorado - Over 55.5 500

                                Brigham Young - 3:30 PM ET Florida State -10 500
                                Florida State - Under 59.5 500

                                Southern California - 3:30 PM ET Minnesota +11 500
                                Minnesota - Over 55 500

                                Alabama - 3:30 PM ET Alabama -23.5 500
                                Duke - Under 57.5 500

                                Air Force - 3:30 PM ET Oklahoma -16.5 500
                                Oklahoma -

                                Nebraska - 3:30 PM ET Washington +3 500
                                Washington - Under 52 500

                                Arizona State - 3:30 PM ET Arizona State +12 500
                                Wisconsin -

                                Florida - 3:30 PM ET Tennessee +13.5 500
                                Tennessee -

                                Washington State - 3:30 PM ET Southern Methodist -23 500
                                Southern Methodist - Over 53.5 500

                                Troy - 4:00 PM ET Troy -3.5 500
                                Alabama-Birmingham -

                                Central Michigan - 4:00 PM ET Eastern Michigan +10.5 500
                                Eastern Michigan - Over 47 500

                                Baylor - 4:30 PM ET Texas Christian -21 500
                                Texas Christian - Over 55 500

                                Indiana - 5:00 PM ET Western Kentucky +13.5 500
                                Western Kentucky - Under 60.5 500

                                Louisville - 5:30 PM ET Louisville +20 500
                                Oregon State -

                                These selections were made a few days ago....My best bets will be indicated with the teams i'll play on a parlay......
                                Check back i'll be posting it in a bit..........GOOD LUCK GANG !
                                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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