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**StarDust Bum** · 09-14-2010, 09:17 PM

Trends to Watch - Week 3

CINCINNATI at NC STATE (Thursday, September 16)...After Fresno loss, Cincy now just 6-10 vs. line last 16 on board, Bearcats also just 1-5 last 6 vs. line vs. non-Big East foes. Tech edge-slight to NCS, based on team trends.

KANSAS at SOUTHERN MISS (Friday, September 17)...Golden Eagles 5-1 vs. line last 6 at Hattiesburg. Tech edge-USM, based on team trends.

CAL at NEVADA (Friday, September 17)...Wolf Pack winless SU last 8 vs. BCS-conference foes and just 1-6 vs. line against last 7 of those opponents, but is 24-10 vs. line in Reno since HC Chris Ault returned to sidelines in 2004. But Jeff Tedford just 8-15 vs. number last 15 away from Berkeley. Tech edge-slight to Nevada, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS at GEORGIA...Ark. 7-2 last 9 as dog since early ‘08 and now 9-5-1 vs. line last 15 as SEC visitor. Richt just 1-6 vs. points last 7 as SEC host since early ‘08, and only 10-18 last 28 as chalk between the hedges. Tech edge-Arkansas, based on team trends.

MARYLAND at WEST VIRGINIA...Most recent series history goes back to Rodriguez days at WVU, when he won last 4 and covered last 3 meetings after Ralph had dominated prior. But Bill Stewart now just 2-11 his last 13 as chalk for WVU (0-2 TY), which has also covered just 2 of its last 9 at Morgantown. Tech edge-Maryland, based on Stewart chalk woes.

IOWA STATE vs. KANSAS STATE (at Kansas City)...Bill Snyder now 6-1 vs. line last 7 on board since mid ‘09, and if a dog here note he covered 5 of last 7 as "short" LY. Tech edge-slight to KSU, if dog, based on Bill Snyder trends.

BALL STATE at PURDUE...BSU still covered 5 of 6 away from Muncie (5-0 as road dog!). Note the road team is 11-2 vs. line and dog team 10-3 against number in Card games since LY. Ball has also covered its last 4 vs. Big Ten foes. Purdue just 7-14 as Ross-Ade chalk since ‘05. Boilermakers also just 2-5 vs. line last 7 hosting MAC foes. Tech edge-slight to Ball, based on team trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at ILLINOIS...NIU 8-2 vs. line it last 10 visiting Big Ten foes since ‘01 (not counting ‘07 at Chicago vs. Iowa). Huskies also 7-2 vs. number since ‘05 as non-MAC visitor. If favored, note Zook no covers his last 7 as chalk vs. FBS and just 2-10 in role since ‘08. Tech edge-NIU, based on team trends.

UCONN at TEMPLE...Teams didn’t meet LY but have tussled five teams in the past decade (the latest in ‘08) with Owls covering each time, although Huskies have won last 3 SU. Edsall pretty good lately vs. number (12-3 last 15 on board) and had covered 8 straight away from home prior to Michigan. Tech edge-slight to UConn, based on Edsall marks.

OHIO at OHIO STATE...Solich covered at the Big Horseshoe in ‘08 and is 9-3 as dog away from Athens since ‘07, 13-6 overall as dog that span. Solich also 3-0 vs. line against Big Ten since ‘07. Tressel, however, is 48-22 last 70 on board. Tech edge-slight to Ohio, based on Solich dog trends.

KENT STATE at PENN STATE...Shades just 4-7 vs. line last 11 as DD home chalk, and 1-6 last 7 laying 20 or more (lone cover vs. E. Illinois). Tech edge-slight to Kent State, based in recent Shades DD chalk woes.

GEORGIA TECH at NORTH CAROLINA...Paul Johnson 16-9 vs. line against FBS-level foes since arriving at Tech in ‘08 and 5-0 vs. line after a SU defeat. Tech edge-GT, based on Paul Johnson numbers.

VANDERBILT at OLE MISS...Vandy has covered 7 of the last 9 meetings as well as 5 of last 6 trips to Vaught-Hemingway. Dores 18-4 as road dog since ‘05, 8-1 vs. line last 9 as SEC visitor. Tech edge-Vandy, based on team and series trends.

EAST CAROLINA at VIRGINIA TECH...Ruffin McNeill vs. Beamer! ECU 2-0-1 vs. line last 3 years vs. VT. Pirates now 24-9 as dog since ‘05 (1-0 for Ruffin), 17-6 as road dog that span. Beamer only 4-7 as DD home chalk since ‘07. Tech edge-ECU, based on team trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at MISSOURI...Aztecs only 7-16 as DD road dog since ‘06. But Mizzou only 1-6 vs. line last 7 at Columbia and just 6-12 as DD chalk since ‘07. Tigers also just 7-16 their last 23 on board. Tech edge-slight to SDSU, based on team trends.

TULSA at OKLAHOMA STATE...Tulsa 2-9 vs. line last 11 on board since early LY, and just 1-4 as road dog since ‘07. Tech edge-OSU, based on recent trends.

ALABAMA at DUKE...Duke just 7-17 vs. line as host vs. FBS foes since ‘05 (but 4-4 since ‘08 for Cutcliffe). Nick Saban 19-8 vs. line last 27 on board, and 3-0 as DD road chalk since ‘07. Tech edge-Nick Saban, based on recent trends.

HAWAII at COLORADO...Interestingly, Hawaii 8-3 vs. line last 10 on mainland for McMackin. Leahey also 6-2 as DD road dog since ‘05. Tech edge-UH, based on team trends.

BYU at FLORIDA STATE...BYU only 2-5 vs. spread as dog since ‘07. Jimbo looking to improve upon FSU’s 0-8 spread mark its last 8 hosting FBS-level foes. Noles also 0-7 as chalk vs. FBS foes LY. Tech edge-slight to BYU, based on team trends.

COLORADO STATE at MIAMI-OHIO...Ugh! Note RedHawks on current 0-11 spread run as chalk! Conversely CSU on a 8-game spread losing streak since mid ‘09. Tech edge-slight to CSU, based on Miami-O chalk woes.

FLORIDA at TENNESSEE...Florida has covered 6 of its last 8 trips to Knoxville. Urban Meyer 29-13 his last 42 on board. Urban Meyer 11-6 as road chalk since ‘07 and 8-2 vs. line his last 10 as SEC visitor. Tech edge-Florida, based on team and series trends.

SOUTHERN CAL at MINNESOTA...Trojans just 4-11 their last 15 on board and 1-8 vs. spread last 9 as visitor, all of those as chalk. SC also just 5-12 its last 17 as DD reg.-season road chalk. Brewster 8-5 his last 13 as dog. Tech edge-Minnesota, based on SC spread woes.

WASHINGTON STATE at SMU...Cougs have now dropped last 6 vs. number (all as dog of 16 ½ or more) and are 9-17 vs. line for Paul Wulff. Cougs also now 7-14 last 21 as road dog dating to the end of the Doba regime. June Jones 9-5 vs. line last 14 on board. Tech edge-SMU, based on Wazzu woes.

NEBRASKA at WASHINGTON...UW 6-2 vs. line at home LY for Sark (4-1 as home dog). Bo Pelini, however, 6-2 vs. line last 8 on road and 7-1 last 8 against number vs. non-Big XII foes. Tech edge-slight to Nebraska, based on recent trends.

LOUISVILLE at OREGON STATE...OSU got the cover vs. TCU but Riley still just 7-19 vs. line in September since returning to Corvallis in 2003. Cards now 4-14 vs. line last 18 on board and are 2-7 vs. line away (all Kragthorpe) since mid ‘08. Riley 10-1 his last 11 as DD chalk. Tech edge-OSU, based on team trends.

AIR FORCE at OKLAHOMA...Calhoun 24-12 vs. FBS-level foes since ‘07 but 0-2 as DD dog. Tech edge-slight to AFA, based on team trends.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at EASTERN MICHIGAN...CMU now 11-3 its last 14 on board after Temple game, also 18-7 its last 25 as chalk. Chips 8-3 laying DD since ‘06. EMU no covers last 6 as MAC home dog. Tech edge-CMU, based on team trends.

BAYLOR at TCU...TCU now 20-7 its last 27 as DD home chalk, and 23-6 vs. line its last 29 at Fort Worth. Old SWC rivals. Tech edge-slight to TCU, based on team trends.

MARSHALL at BOWLING GREEN...BGSU just 3-5 as home chalk since ‘08, and road team is 28-13 vs. line last 41 Falcon games. Tech edge-slight to Marshall, based on team trends.

NAVY at LA TECH...Mids just 2-7 as chalk since LY, although one of those covers was at La Tech’s expense. Bulldogs 6-0 as Ruston dog since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to LT, based on team trends.

UCF at BUFFALO...Bulls only 1-5 vs. line last 6 at home vs. FBS foes. Turner Gill was 17-9 last 26 as dog at UB. O’Leary was 9-3 vs. line LY and 5-1 vs. number away. Tech edge-slight to UCF, based on recent trends.

AKRON at KENTUCKY...Zips have dropped to 3-12 last 15 on board, and 3-8 last 11 as DD road dog. Tech edge-UK, based on Akron woes.

TOLEDO at WESTERN MICHIGAN...Road team has covered last three meetings. WMU just 3-12 its last 15 on board and 11-23 overall vs. line since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to UT, based on WMU negatives.

CLEMSON at AUBURN...Dabo 12-7 vs. line last 19 on board. Auburn 10-22 its last 32 as chalk. Tech edge-Clemson, based on team rends.

TEXAS at TEXAS TECH...Red Raiders have covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 at Lubbock vs. Horns. Under Leach, Tech was 4-0 as home dog since ‘05. Mack only 7-14 vs. line last 21 on board (7-12 last 19 as chalk). "Overs" 6-1-1 last 8 in series. Tech edge-TT, based on team and series trends.

NORTHWESTERN at RICE...NU no covers last 6 as chalk, 3-13 last 16 as chalk for Fitzgerald. Also no covers last 6 in reg. season outside of Big Ten. Rice 13-6 as home dog since ‘05, 21-8 in role since ‘00. Tech edge-Rice, based on team trends.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at LSU...Les Miles 2-18 vs. line as SEC host! MSU has covered its last 2 at Baton Rouge. Tech edge-MSU, based on LSU negatives.

UTAH at NEW MEXICO...Kyle Whittingham 13-7 as DD chalk for Utes since ‘05, 5-2 as DD road chalk that span. Utes have also covered 6 of last 7 laying 20 or more. Tech edge-Utah, based on team trends.

FRESNO STATE at UTAH STATE...Utags now 21-9 last 30 vs. FBS, also 7-1 as dog for Gary Andersen. USU has covered the last five years vs. Fresno as well. Pat Hill just 7-14 as chalk since ‘07. Tech edge-USU, based on team trends.

NOTRE DAME at MICHIGAN STATE...Spartans 4-0-1 vs. line last 5 in series, and 11-2-1 last 14 vs. Irish. Spartans, however, just 12-20 vs. line at East Lansing since ‘05. Brian Kelly was 8-1 as dog at Cincy, 12-1 his last 13 as dog at CMU & Cincy. Tech edge-slight to MSU, based on series trends.

BOISE STATE at WYOMING...Interestingly, Boise has not covered its last 3 vs. Wyo (‘03-06-07). Broncos are 24-12 their last 36 on board, however, and 12-3 last 15 away from blue carpet. Wyo 9-3 as dog for Christensen since LY. Tech edge-slight to Boise, based on team trends.

NEW MEXICO STATE at UTEP...Home field has not helped much lately in this series, with road team 4-0-1 vs. line last 5 meetings. DeWayne Walker was 5-2 vs. line away LY. Mike Price just 3-12 his last 12 as chalk, 8-23 last 31 in role. Tech edge-NMSU, based on team ad series trends.

UNLV at IDAHO...Vandals just 1-4 as chalk for Robb Akey against FBS foes, and 6-10 vs. line at Kibbie Dome vs. FBS foes. Tech edge-slight to UNLV, based on team trends.

IOWA at ARIZONA...Kirk Ferentz has covered 8 straight away from Iowa City. If dog, note Hawyeyes were 5-0 in role LY, now 12-3 last 15 in role. Mike Stoops facing alma mater and is 13-4 vs. spread in Tucson since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to Iowa, especially if dog, based on team trends.

HOUSTON at UCLA...Bruins 27-11 vs. line last 38 at Rose Bowl, 9-2 last 11 vs. spread hosting non-Pac 10 foes. If dog, however, note UCLA just 2-7 vs. line last 9 in role. Tech edge-slight to UCLA, based on team trends.

WAKE FOREST at STANFORD...Grobe 18-11 as dog since ‘05, although just 3-5 as road dog since ‘07. Deacs, however, 5-1 vs. line last 6 as non-conference visitor. Harbaugh 12-4 vs. Line last 16 on Farm, however, and if laying DD, note Harbaugh 3-0 as DD home chalk since ‘07. Tech edge-Wake, based on extended team trends.

INDIANA at WESTERN KENTUCKY...UI hasn’t covered as road chalk since ‘99 at Iowa, 0-3 in rare role since. UI just 5-9 vs. line its last 14 on road. Tech edge-slight to WKU, based on UI road trends.

NORTH TEXAS at ARMY...UNT 10-19 vs. line beginning with third game of season the past three years for Todd Dodge. West Point just 7-17 vs. line at Michie since ‘05. Tech edge-slight to UNT, based on team trends.

UL-MONROE at ARKANSAS STATE...ULM has won 4 of last 5 and covered last 5 in series! Red Wolves just 4-17 their last 21 on board. Tech edge-ULM, based on series trends.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at TEXAS A&M...Golden Panthers just 6-13 vs. line as road dog since ‘07, though 5-3 last 8 visiting non-Belt foes. Ags 8-1 last 9 and 10-2 last 12 vs. line at Kyle Field, 7-1 last 7 as home chalk as well. Tech edge-A&M, based on team trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE at MEMPHIS...Blue Raiders 5-1 vs. line away LY and has also covered last 8 as chalk. Memphis 2-12 last 14 on board. Tech edge-MTSU, based on team trends.

TROY at UAB...Troy 17-8 as chalk since ‘07. UAB 2-7 as dog since LY. Tech edge-Troy, based on team trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-14-2010, 09:18 PM

Games to Watch - Week 3

Some of the big matchups of Week 2 in college football fell flat when they actually were played. There are just two games on the schedule that pits ranked squads against one another. Let’s look at them and a few other tilts that got my attention.

Saturday - Arkansas at Georgia (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny Gambling Notes

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College football is set to where no team can afford a loss if it aspires to making big bowl appearances. But that goes double in the highly competitive SEC. And these two teams are in a scary spot as we don't know what to think of them after two games. The Bulldogs (1-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) are already behind the eight-ball after a 17-6 loss at South Carolina last weekend. Georgia's offense was held to 253 yards of offense and only converted three of its 11 third-down opportunities. The Razorbacks' (2-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) defense was up to the task last weekend as they held Louisiana-Monroe to just 188 yards in a 31-7 win in Little Rock. Couple that win with a throttling of Tennessee Tech and you have an Arkansas side with big wins that offer little to no substance as to who they really are. Most sportsbooks opened this game up as a pick 'em but bettors quickly steamed that up to make Georgia a 2 ½-point home favorite. It makes sense that the Bulldogs are favored here as they're at home and have won six straight against Arkansas, covering the spread in four of those meetings. You actually have to go all the way back to 1993 to find the last time that the Hogs won outright in Athens. Bettors should be looking at the 'under' as a viable option as it has gone 4-2 in those last six matchups. While the 'Dogs are favored, they are just 7-4 SU and 4-7 ATS as home faves against SEC foes. Meanwhile, the Razorbacks are 2-7 SU and 6-3 ATS over the past three years as road pups against teams in the conference.

Saturday - Nebraska at Washington (ABC-Regional, 3:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny Gambling Notes

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Could this be the year for the Cornhuskers (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) to return as a perennial national power? It looks like that with two strong opening wins. Nebraska is helped by freshman signal caller Taylor Martinez taking its offense back to the days of old, rushing for a team-high 284 yards and five touchdowns. Yet Martinez has completed 21 of his 32 passes for 242 yards and a pick. He'll have to pick up his passing numbers against Washington. The Huskies (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) are execting big things out of Heisman hopeful Jake Locker this season. And so far he's doing his job with 555 yards and five scores through the air. Locker bounced back from his poor finish at BYU to connect on 22 of his 33 passes for 289 yards and 3 TDs last Saturday against Syracuse. Bill Clinton was in office the last time these two schools faced off last on the gridiron. Nebraska won and covered the last two meetings between these team in 1997 and 98. Washington won and covered the meetings in 1991 and 92. The 'Huskers come into this battle as 4 ½-point road faves, up from the 3 ½-points they were initially posted at on Sunday. Bettors should know that Nebraska is just 2-3 SU and ATS in its last five road tests against non-conference teams from other BCS leagues. The 'under' was the play in thos spots, having gone 5-0. One other thing to keep an eye on that is impossible to handicap are turnovers. The Cornhuskers have 8 takeaways this season so far, but gave it back six times. Washington has only turned the ball over once on a fumbler this season. Could that rear its ugly head in Seattle?

Saturday - Iowa at Arizona (ESPN, 10:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny Gambling Notes

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Who hasn't heard of the paradox that talks about an irresistible force taking on an immovable object? We're going to see that happening in Tucson as the Wildcats (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) play host to Iowa (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS). Arizona comes into this game with the 12th ranked offense nationally, picking up 503.5 yards per game. That's in large part to Nick Foles, The Wildcats' gunslinger has completed an incredible 83 percent of his passes for 574 yards and three scores this year. All he has to do this week is to take on a defense that is giving up 216.0 YPG this season. Iowa has been just flat out stingy against opposing offenses. And God help you if you make it within the red zone as the Hawkeyes have allowed just two touchdown on four trips that opponents have made into that territory. Plus, the Hawkeyes have a great of their own in Ricky Stanzi. The senior field general has connected on 70.7 percent of his passes this year for 433 yards and three touchdowns. Iowa also has its standard bruising rusher in Adam Robinson, who has rushed for four touchdown and 265 yards on 38 carries. There's a reason why they're a favorite to win the Big Ten this season. This is a tough game for the oddsmakers to look at with as the Hawkeyes have been pushed up to 2-point road favorites. That line no doubt takes last season's 27-17 home win for Iowa over the 'Cats into consideration. Arizona tied the game at 17-17 early in the fourth quarter before the Hawkeyes scored 10 points to cover as 4-point home faves. The Hawkeyes were able to frustrate 'Zona into some short drives as they were held to just 2-for-12 on third-down conversions. Since 2007, Iowa has gone 3-1 SU and ATS when posted as a road "chalk" against non-conference foes. The Wildcats haven't fared well as home pups against non-conference teams, evidenced by a 1-7 SU and 3-4-1 ATS mark since 2000.

Other Games to Watch
Matchup Skinny

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Brian Kelly and the Fighting Irish are licking their wounds after a heartbreaking loss at home to Michigan last weekend. Now they head up to East Lansing to face off with a suspect Michigan State squad. Notre Dame does take heart in knowing that they are 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in its last three games as a road pup after playing the Wolverines. Only problem for Dayne Crist and Company is that the Spartans 7-3 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. Is this a let down spot for the Golden Domers?

vs.
You know this matchup looked a lot better before they played last week. BYU got embarrassed at Air Force 35-14 last weekend, but the Seminoles were torched 47-17 at Oklahoma. Florida State is posted as a 9 ½-point home favorite for this game. Do you play on a team that was ripped on national television or take the team looking for revenge from a 54-28 loss in Provo from the year before?

**StarDust Bum** · 09-14-2010, 09:21 PM

Rest or Rust?

EARLY RESPITES
In the majority of cases, rest is considered advantageous for most college football teams, especially late in the season. An extra blow not only helps heal tired bodies but also gives coaches a chance to better study an opponent’s game film in greater detail. However, rested teams during the opening month of the season tend to develop dichotic personalities.

RESTED TEAMS OFF A SEASON OPENING LOSS TEND TO STRUGGLE

A week of rest right out of the box in a new season, however, can either help or hinder a team depending on their previous effort and venue. In college football, teams in Game Two, playing off a LOSS with a week of rest, are just 56-70 ATS, including 28-43 ATS when on the road.

This week we find North Carolina and Oregon State (both home) in this not-so-desirable role.

RESTED TEAMS OFF A SEASON OPENING WIN TEND TO PERFORM WELL

On the other side of the coin, college football teams in Game Two, playing off a WIN with a week of rest, are 114-84-4 ATS, with Boise State, Fresno State and Indiana are in this role this week.

When playing foes with wobbly defenses (allow 27 or more PPG on the season), these rested winners improve to 36-14 ATS. Boise State and Indiana fit the bill on Saturday. That’s this week’s wake-up call. You know what to do...

**StarDust Bum** · 09-14-2010, 09:23 PM

Week 2 Rewind

If there is one thing that we’ve learned about college football it’s that it isn’t enough for a team to do well, but the league must play strong as well. The second week of action on the college gridiron showed us some conferences are up to the task. The ACC, however, showed that they are nowhere near ready for primetime.

Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech were the cream of the league’s crop that was playing this weekend. And all four of them suffered embarrassing defeats.

The Hurricanes were initially opened up as 9 ½-point road pups to Ohio State for this rematch of the 2003 Fiesta Bowl. Bettors were all too eager to take back Miami to cover, pushing the number down to 8 ½ before it surged back to 9 at some sportsbooks. It turns out that the only number gamblers needed to know for this game was four. Miami’s Jacory Harris threw four interceptions that turned into 17 points as the Buckeyes won 36-24 in Columbus. While the score sounds close, the reality is that the ‘Canes needed a kickoff return for a touchdown from Lamar Miller and a punt return for a score by Travis Benjamin in the first half to have a chance.

Florida State was loved by the public this week as an 8 ½-point road ‘dog against the Sooners…especially after they hammered Samford last week and OU struggled against Utah State. Well it turns out that Oklahoma was just shaking off rust as they annihilated the Seminoles 47-17 in Norman. Christian Ponder completed 11-of-28 of his passes for 113 yards and was picked off twice. This game was pretty much decided in the first half when the ‘Noles had just two of their seven drives wind up in OU territory, with one of those winding up as a touchdown. Couple those defeats in with Virginia Tech losing to FCS school James Madison and the Yellow Jackets falling to Kansas puts the conference in a rather unsavory light.

The only people that really enjoyed those losses were the oddsmakers. According to Sportsbook.com, each of those aforementioned ACC clubs were catching the majority of money coming in before kickoff. And good on you for those who took the Dukes to beat the Hokies for a plus-5,500.

While the Buckeyes had a solid victory for the Big Ten, the same can be said of rival Michigan. The Wolverines picked up quality last-minute victory against Notre Dame as 3 ½-point road pups, 28-24. Denard Robinson continues to be a one man wrecking crew after he took the Fighting Irish for 255 rushing yards, 244 yards through the air three touchdowns. What impressed me about Robinson is his poise in Michigan’s game-winning drive. The sophomore signal caller competed five of his six passes for 55 yards and rushed for another 18 to take the lead with 27 seconds left on the clock. While Michigan does have two strong wins, we have to temper our expectations for the team. This is a program that went 1-7 in Big Ten play.

Once you get past the Bucks and Wolverines, the league was pretty lousy. Penn State was held without a touchdown for the first time since 2006 as they failed to cover as a 14-point road underdog in a 24-3 setback to the Crimson Tide. Plus, the Golden Gophers found itself on the wrong side of a 41-38 decision at home as they lost South Dakota.

While things are in a state of flux in the Big Ten, the SEC looked like the power conference that everyone has drank the Kool-aid of over the years. Florida found itself dominated after trailing the first quarter 7-0 by the Bulls. After that, the Gators had their way en route to a 38-14 win as 15-point home favorites. We’ve already mentioned that Alabama owned the Nittany Lions, but we didn’t say anything about Trent Richardson. Mark Ingram’s replacement pushed through for 144 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. Between Richardson and freshman Eddie Lacy, you have to wonder if Ingram is all he was cracked up to be last year.

As far as the Big XII is concerned it was status quo. The Longhorns had no issues in dumping Wyoming 34-7, but failed to cover as a 28-point home faves. Nebraska pulled it in early against the Vandals, but still came away with a 38-17 win in Lincoln. While the Oklahoma win is impressive, the most surprising win was in Lawrence. Turner Gill’s team was humiliated in a 6-3 loss to North Dakota State to open the year, so a respectable outing at home against 15th ranked Georgia Tech was imperative. Jordan Webb revived the Jayhawks’ attack with 178 passing yards and three touchdowns as they shocked the Yellow Jackets with a 28-25 win as 14-point home pups.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-14-2010, 09:25 PM

Public dominates Week 2

The college football action around Las Vegas was huge as a lead in for the football frenzy of Sunday’s NFL excitement. Everyone was betting and those who were betting the ranked teams they knew were cashing. The sports books had an awful day Saturday. As good as their first weekend was two weeks ago is about the same level of bad as it was Saturday.

While the sharps didn’t hit their games collectively, it was the masses just betting teams they know and taking teams who would be on TV that beat the books. The typical bettor Saturday at the sports book window sounded something like this while staring at the board of games, “I’ll have a 5-team parlay for $20, give me Ohio State, Alabama, Oklahoma, and, uhhhh, did I say Ohio State, and umm, Utah, and uh, give me Florida too.”

It was that easy for people on Saturday.

MGM Resorts Director of Race and Sports Jay Rood said he had a quite a few loaded parlay cards hit Saturday mostly with favored public teams.

“One guy hit a $100 10-teamer using all public games and cashed $70,000. We had a $15 10-teamer hit, a few nine-teamers, needless to say, it was a really good day for the players Saturday,“ said Rood.

College Moves of the Week

There were 16 college moves last week of two points of more from the Monday openers to kickoff with the sports books having an edge on the decisions, or at least on paper. Some books move on air when the alert comes that others are moving and may not have enjoyed the success others did by moving solely by the money.

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A two-point move is much more significant on spreads with single digits because in most cases each move can be expected to be done in half-point increments suggesting that there are four limit plays that would move a game two-points. Once a line is in the teens or twenties, a move of a full point or a point- and-half doesn’t really tell the entire tale of the movement.

To keep things simple, we’ll just leave it at moves of two points or more which shows that the books won those games 10-6 on Saturday. The largest move was on the added board which tends to be more weighted with straight bets and larger moves because of the lower limits. Rutgers opened a 19-point favorite and was bet down to -14 ¼ against Florida International. The sharps got there with play as Rutgers barely won 19-14.

Kansas and Oregon both saw sharp moves against them moving 2 ½-points each, but the books raked in all the chips at full limits with those as Kansas won straight up 28-25 over Georgia Tech and the Ducks destroyed Tennessee at Rocky Top 48-13.

As great as it would appear that the sports books did in those games, they didn’t elsewhere. It was a blood bath everywhere as the key public teams all got there in parlays. This shows once again that the sharps, as smart as they are, aren’t as important to the days success as the mighty power of the masses. However, the sharps are a necessity to the operation because without the sharp play, a day like Saturday would have been much worse. It’s very rare that the house will lose to both square and sharp action on the same day. The agenda’s for each side are completely different but each help keep the balance of nature in place much like a rain forest needs all living components to survive.

Atlantic Coast Crushing’s Hurts Creditability

The ACC has the luxury of having an automatic bid in the BCS and who their representative will be this year is way up in the air. Regardless of who it is, it’s safe to say that they won’t be playing in the title game. No. 16 Virginia Tech’s home loss to James Madison as a 33-point favorite takes the Hokies to 0-2 and dramatically reduces the conference’s creditability with voters.

Not only does it affect how coaches and writers feel about the quality of the ACC, it also affects how they feel about Boise State who beat Virginia Tech two weeks ago in what was thought of then to be a quality win. In this weeks AP rankings, Boise State lost seven of the eight first place votes they had two weeks ago. All this happened just by mere perception without Boise State even playing last week.

The woes of the conference didn’t stop with just the Hokies either. No. 12 Miami was beaten soundly by the Big-10’s Buckeyes, No. 17 Florida State was crushed by the Big-12’s Sooners and No. 15 Georgia Tech lost to Kansas as a 14-point favorite. The best display by the conference was Virginia’s 17-14 loss at USC.

Player of the Week

Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson placed himself in the Heisman race by putting the Wolverines on his back to win a 28-21 thriller at Notre Dame. It wasn’t just that Robinson put up over 500 combined yards of rushing and passing, it was the manner in which he it. The 12-play drive in the closing minutes -- with 80,000 Irish fans on top of him -- to get the win are the type of moments that get campaigns started in Heisman races. He rushed for 197 yards two weeks ago in a win over Connecticut. Tack on Saturday’s 258 yards and he now leads the nation in rushing. It would be hard to believe that Michigan would run Robinson 30 times a game if they expect to keep him healthy for 10 more games, but as of now, Michigan is 2-0, the Alumni is happy and that’s keeping head coach Rich Rodriguez happy. Translation: except the kid to keep running 30 times a game.

This Week’s Games

There aren’t a lot of marquee games like we had last week. Texas visiting Texas Tech should be entertaining as well as Washington welcoming Nebraska, but I’ll be paying closer attention to three matchups this week. Friday’s game with Cal visiting Nevada looks to be one of the highest scoring games of the week. Cal looks like they are one of the best teams in the Pac-10 -- along with Stanford and Oregon -- while Nevada carries the flag of WAC respectability. Wolf Pack quarterback Colin Kaepernick can’t be stopped in Chris Ault’s system, but the game will ultimately come down to how many times they can stop Cal’s potent offense. Hopefully it’s a good showing for Nevada on an isolated ESPN2 national audience and hopefully many of the AP writers aren't sleeping like they normally do for west coast games.

Saturday night I have two games simultaneously to watch with Houston visiting UCLA and Iowa visiting Tucson to play Arizona. Watching Houston’s offense run by Case Keenum is always entertaining but now they have to go against a team that is a slight upgrade defensively from what they‘re used to, or is it? UCLA head coach Rick Neuheisel is taking a beating in the Los Angeles media and disgruntled fans after starting the season 0-2. The 35-0 beat down Stanford put on UCLA at the Rose Bowl last week has fueled the fire, one that began with Neuheisel making initial claims in the city that he obviously can’t back up. The new pistol offense the Bruins are running requires a mobile athletic quarterback, something that Kevin Prince isn’t. However, the tempo and style that Houston plays may allow for the Bruins to score quite a few points making this game entertaining.

We finally get to see how good Arizona is this week against a very good Iowa team. They came on strong last season and have blown out smaller schools in their first two games this season, but Iowa may be a different story. It will be interesting to see how Arizona handles the big Iowa offensive and defensive lines. The one edge Arizona will have is the Desert Swarm home crowd and the late start time.

My College Picks for this week: Stanford 42 Wake Forest 17, Texas Tech 32 Texas 30, Florida 38 Tennessee 20

**StarDust Bum** · 09-14-2010, 09:40 PM

Week 3 Marquee NCAAF Betting Matchups

Arkansas Razorbacks at Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, Sept. 18 - 9 a.m. PT
NCAA Football Odds: Bulldogs -3

The wrong team is favored is this important SEC matchup.

The Arkansas Razorbacks have yet to face a tough test this year but they should be up for it. Meanwhile, Georgia is coming off a manhandling in South Carolina last weekend. The Bulldogs offense just isn’t quite ready to get them into the SEC elite. Arkansas’ is.

This is a revenge game from last year that the Razorbacks have circled. They’ll definitely be up for this one. DonBest.com's Stephen Nover will preview this game later this week.

Pick: Razorbacks +3

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Washington Huskies
Saturday, Sept. 18 - 12:30 p.m. PT (ABC)
NCAA Football Odds: Cornhuskers -4

The Huskies get a visit from a tough Big 12 squad this week in a classic battle of offense meets defense. The Huskers defense is one of the better units around while the Huskies – at least when they are at home – have a very multi-faceted offense led by senior quarterback Jake Locker.

This could be the statement game that the Huskies have been looking for under Steve Sarkisian. If not, maybe they can just get the cover at home.

Pick: Huskies +4

Florida Gators at Tennessee Volunteers
Saturday, Sept. 18 - 12:30 p.m. PT (ABC)
NCAA Football Odds: Gators -17

Did the Florida Gators finally wake up? We’ll find out this week when they head up to Rocky Top.

Florida was sloppy in their opener against Miami (Ohio) and then labored in their follow up against South Florida. Now they get into the serious action in the SEC. The good news is that Tennessee’s offense is about as inept as theirs, which should lead to another win and cover. Check back later to read the game analysis that will be provided by TJ of EasyStreetSports.

Pick: Gators -17

Baylor Bears at TCU Horned Frogs
Saturday, Sept. 18 - 1:30 p.m. PT (Versus)
NCAA Football Odds: Horned Frogs -21

The TCU Horned Frogs suddenly get a credible opponent visiting town and a lopsided win can help them vault up the standings some more.

With Art Briles coaching and Robert Griffin quarterbacking, Baylor is no longer a joke. They’ve scored 68 points in their first two games and should be able to put up some points here. But this will be one of their toughest road challenges in the Briles era and this is an inexperienced team.

On the flip side, TCU has plenty of experience and will relish the chance to build some credibility.

Pick: TCU -21

Clemson Tigers at Auburn Tigers
Saturday, Sept. 18 - 4 p.m. PT (ESPN)
NCAA Football Odds: Auburn -6

Expect a shootout in this all-Tigers matchup. The difference? Extra prep time for Auburn as well as home-field advantage.

The ACC has been getting smacked around in non-conference play and this will be another example. Florida State was smoked by Oklahoma, Virginia Tech lost to James Madison, Miami was thumped by Ohio State and Clemson is next in line.

Their a decent ACC squad but stopping Auburn’s explosive offense or keeping up while having to go through the rigors of a tough SEC defense is not something they are capable of.

Pick: Auburn -6

Texas Longhorns at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Saturday, Sept. 18 - 5 p.m. PT (ABC)
NCAA Football Odds: Longhorns -3

This is a bit of a peculiar line. Texas Tech is supposed to be rebuilding, they are not in the Top 25 and they are hosting a top-five team. So why are the Longhorns only a three-point favorite?

Sure, travelling to Lubbock is never easy but this line reeks. The public will be buying the Longhorns at such a cheap price but maybe there is a reason they are only a three-point favorite. We’ll stick with the smart money and bet on a Texas Tech surprise. Brad Young will be covering this matchup for DonBest.com.

Pick: Texas Tech +3

Iowa Hawkeyes at Arizona Wildcats
Saturday, Sept. 18 - 7:30 p.m. PT (ESPN)
NCAA Football Odds: Hawkeyes -1

The Iowa Hawkeyes are a top-10 team but they are faced with a surprisingly tough non-conference game this week. Arizona has a legit offense and a quality quarterback in Nick Foles. But can the Wildcats spring the upset?

But the Hawkeyes have two things going for them: a smashmouth defense and a running game. Those are two big keys to being successful on the road. Stephen Nover will provide in-depth betting analysis for this game as kickoff draws nearer.

Pick: Hawkeyes -1

**StarDust Bum** · 09-14-2010, 09:42 PM

NCAAF Odds: Looking ahead and behind

There were plenty of quality matchups this past weekend between college football's ranked opponents. Games this time of year usually consist of football factories plowing through smaller schools eager for a hefty paycheck, but Week 2 on the schedule featured a couple of marquee matchups.
Second-ranked Ohio State upended 12th-ranked Miami (Fla.) as an 8 ½-point home ‘chalk,' 36-24, while the combined 60 points soared ‘over' the 47-point closing total. The Buckeyes took control of the contest by scoring 23 points in the second quarter, and finished the game by intercepting four passes. This marked the first meeting between these schools since the 2003 Fiesta Bowl National Championship Game.

The matchup between 10th-ranked Oklahoma and 17th-ranked Florida State didn't live up to the hype. The Sooners blew out the Seminoles as a 6 ½-point home favorite, 47-17, while the combined 64 points toppled the 58-point closing total. Oklahoma scored touchdowns on each of its first four possessions, extending its home winning streak to 32 games.

Top-ranked and defending national champion Alabama cruised past 18th-ranked Penn State Saturday as a 14-point home ‘chalk,' 24-3. The combined 27 points never seriously threatened the 43-point closing total. The Crimson Tide rolled behind running back Trent Richardson, who had 22 carries for 144 yards and a score. The Nittany Lions avoided the shutout by kicking a field goal with 10 minutes remaining in the contest.

One conference game pitting a pair of ranked teams occurred in the Southeastern Conference when 24th-ranked South Carolina held off 22nd-ranked Georgia as a three-point home favorite, 17-6. Freshman running back Marcus Lattimore paced the Gamecocks offense with 37 carries for 182 yards and two touchdowns.

Now that an entertaining Week 2 of the college football season is in the books, let's turn our focus to some important matchups for the next weekend. Week 3 on the schedule appears to be the calm before the conference storm, with powerhouse programs taking on lesser opponents to fine tune their teams one last time.

Alabama takes a breather against Duke, Ohio State hosts an overmatched Ohio squad and sixth-ranked Nebraska travels to Washington. One conference clash scheduled for next weekend that should garner national attention is Florida versus Tennessee.

The Gators are 10-3-1 against the spread their last 14 road endeavors. Urban Meyer is the only Florida head coach to begin his career with five consecutive victories over Tennessee. The team that has rushed for more yards has won seven straight in this series, and 19 of the previous 20.

The Volunteers have averaged just 60 yards rushing against the Gators the past four years (-11, 37, 96 and 117). Tennessee has dropped the previous five matchups in this series, and has won just six of the last 24.

Another intriguing Week 3 matchup involves Arkansas and Georgia in SEC action. Both teams were ranked last week before the Bulldogs fell to South Carolina as a three-point road underdog, 17-6. The Razorbacks dumped Louisiana-Monroe as a 33 ½-point home ‘chalk,' 31-7.

Arkansas is a disappointing 2-7 in conference openers. The Hogs are also 3-9 versus the Bulldogs after losing nine of the previous 10 meetings. Quarterback Ryan Mallett threw five touchdowns against the Bulldogs last season, but Arkansas lost as a two-point home favorite, 52-41. Georgia head coach Mark Richt has won all five matchups versus the Razorbacks.

Highly ranked Texas travels to Lubbock to take on Big XII rival Texas Tech having won six of the previous seven meetings. The Longhorns won last year as an 18-point home ‘chalk,' 34-24, despite trailing the Red Raiders in first downs and total yards. The ‘over' is 7-1 the last eight games in this series, with the home team winning the past three.

A late-night matchup pitting the Big 10 versus the Pac 10 takes place in Tucson when top-10 Iowa battles Arizona. The Hawkeyes beat the Wildcats last season as a three-point home favorite, 27-17, while the combined 44 points toppled the 41-point closing total. Iowa is 7-1 straight up its last eight road openers, with the one setback occurring in 2004 against Arizona State, 44-7. Arizona is 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS its last seven versus Big 10 opponents.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-14-2010, 09:43 PM

NCAAF Betting: Early season surprises

Though the 2010 NCAA football betting season is just two weeks old, many upsets have already disappointed college football wagering warriors.

Where else could we start than with the Virginia Tech Hokies? Watching Frank Beamer's boys get beaten on Labor Day night by the Boise State Broncos 33-30 wasn't a tremendous surprise. In fact, the pollsters didn't even totally punish the men in purple. V-Tech only dropped three spots in the polls after the defeat, something that normally cost teams at least 10 spots early in the season.

However, this past Saturday was a totally different story. In spite of the fact that the Hokies were plus 127 yards and dominated first downs, three turnovers crushed them in a ridiculously embarrassing 21-16 loss to the James Madison Dukes. The Dukes came back from a 16-7 deficit late in the third quarter to pick up the second win for an FCS team over a ranked FBS opponent in the history of college football.

Though many FBS conference teams that end up losing to FCS schools every season, it isn't often that we see a plethora of teams from the major BCS conferences dropping like flies to the "minor league" of college football.

However, we've seen it quite a bit more than we would probably care for this year. That probably shows that the division between not just the mid-major schools and the major colleges is shrinking, but the gap between FBS and FCS as well.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers were nearly subjected to the embarrassment of losing to a Sun Belt team in Week 1, but couldn't avoid the wrath of the South Dakota Coyotes in Week 2. The Coyotes dropped a hefty 41 points on the board during Saturday's narrow three-point win against the Gophers.

The Kansas Jayhawks have been the subject of two major surprises so far this year. Losing 6-3 to the North Dakota Bison last week was a complete embarrassment and not what the doctor ordered in Turner Gill's debut as the head coach in Lawrence. However, he fired back this week with a huge 28-25 upset of the ACC's Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at home this past Saturday.

It was one of four terrible losses for ACC teams on the day. The Virginia Tech defeat was brutal, but the Miami Hurricanes' 36-24 defeat at the hands of the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Florida State Seminoles' 47-17 laugher in Norman against the Oklahoma Sooners put a huge black eye on what was supposed to be one of the best conferences in America.

However, it shouldn't be getting much better than the Florida Gators. The blue and orange have been the dominant team in college football for the past five years or so. Though QB Tim Tebow isn't there anymore, Florida is still having problems that most wouldn't believe.

Snapping the football is a very fundamental part of the game, yet the Gators still can't seem to do it right. They fumbled eight times two weeks ago during a 34-12 win against the Miami Redhawks that was significantly closer than the final score suggests.

The South Florida Bulls stuck around for a solid two and change quarters before ultimately falling 38-14.

We know that the Gators probably have better football in front of them, but they are going to need to do a significantly better job than what they have shown in the first two weeks of the year to keep that top-10 ranking.

What other surprises could be on the horizon in the future? Next week, a entire new crop of FCS teams are going to be taking on FBS foes, while many teams are starting to wrap up their non-conference schedules with games that really shouldn't be that difficult. One thing is for certain; anything can happen on any given Saturday.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-14-2010, 09:44 PM

College Football Betting: Week 3 Preview

The 10th-ranked Florida Gators are right there with the rest of the top Southeastern Conference teams at 2-0.

But there is plenty of concern about the Gators after two flat offensive performances. Some handicappers rate Florida as the fifth-best team – in the SEC.

Perhaps that’s a harsh evaluation, but Florida’s offense picked up only 212 yards and had five botched snaps from center in an ugly 34-12 opening-week win against Miami-Ohio, a team they were favored to beat by 38 points.

Florida then needed five turnovers by its defense to get past South Florida, 38-14, this past Saturday as 17-point college betting favorites.

Quarterback John Brantley doesn’t look like a natural running Urban Meyer’s spread offense and the ground attack seems limited relying on big plays from Jeff Demps.

The Gators probably are going to need much better cohesion to cover a 16 ½-point spread at Tennessee this week.

Trend-wise, though, the Gators are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road contests. They also have covered in 17 of their last 24 matchups.

The trends also point to an ‘under.’ The ‘under’ has cashed in eight of Florida’s last 10 ‘lined’ games. Tennessee is 15-5-1 to the ‘under’ in its past 21 SEC matchups. The ‘under’ has come through in four of the last five meetings between the two schools.

Top-rated Alabama also is laying a big number on the road. The Crimson Tide is minus 23 at Duke. Alabama is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road contests and has covered in eight of its last nine September games.

This is a bit of a ‘sandwich’ spot for Alabama. The Tide just defeated Penn State at home and goes on the road the following week to meet undefeated conference rival Arkansas.

Duke has covered only 32 percent of its last 51 home games, but is 9-2 ATS during its last 11 games in September.

Oklahoma is another top-10 school laying big points on the road. The seventh-ranked Sooners are minus 18 ½ points at Air Force.

The Sooners were far more impressive in a 47-17 home win against Florida State this past Saturday as seven-point favorites than they were last week when they only defeated Utah State, 31-24, as 34-point home favorites.

Oklahoma is 1-5-1 ATS following a straight-up victory. Since Sam Bradford stopped playing for them, the Sooners are 5-8-1 ATS. The ‘under’ has cashed in 12 of Oklahoma’s last 16 games.

Boise State is minus 24 at the NCAA betting window at Wyoming. The Broncos are on an 18-7-1 covering run, including going 6-0 ATS in their six September games. Wyoming is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 home games.

Sixth-ranked Texas is a three-point road favorite against Texas Tech. The Longhorns have failed to cover in their last five games. They are 1-7 ATS in their past eight Big 12 Conference matchups. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the series.

The ‘over’ is 20-9-1 in Texas’ last 30 road contests. The ‘over’ has cashed the past four times Texas has played the Red Raiders in Lubbock.

Second-ranked Ohio State and No. 4 TCU are big home favorites. The Buckeyes try to cover their seventh non-conference game in a row laying 31 against Ohio. The Bobcats are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road contests. Ohio State is 7-1 ATS at home and 35-24 ATS as home ‘chalk’ under Jim Tressel.

The ‘under’ has cashed in eight of Ohio State’s past 11 non-conference matchups. Ohio has gone ‘under’ in 10 of its past 14 non-league games.

TCU is minus 21 hosting Baylor. The Horned Frogs have covered 68 percent of the time during their last 66 home games. TCU is 10-4 ATS against Big 12 foes. Baylor is 8-2 ATS versus opponents with a winning mark.

**StarDust Bum** · 09-15-2010, 06:07 PM

Texas looks to keep Saturday's game Under

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS LONGHORNS (-3)
at TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT, Total: 55

Texas looks to avenge its painful last-second loss at Texas Tech from two years ago when the Big 12 rivals hook up for an ESPN primetime showdown in Lubbock. Texas Tech knocked the Longhorns out of the national championship picture in 2008 when Michael Crabtree scored the game-winning TD with one second left to give TTU a 39-33 win.

Texas has shown a more balanced attack minus Colt McCoy, with 48 percent of its yardage on the ground. Fozzy Whittaker was named the starting running back earlier this week, but Texas will also give the ball to Cody Johnson and Tre’ Newton. Considering sophomore quarterback Garrett Gilbert is making his first start on an opponent’s home field, the Longhorns would be wise to control the clock with their strong running game averaging 182 YPG this year.The Red Raiders like to air it out three times as much as they run the ball. QB Taylor Potts has thrown for 652 yards and seven touchdowns without throwing an INT in his 87 attempts. Potts threw for 420 yards and three touchdowns in last season’s 10-point loss to Texas.Texas is a mediocre 9-9 playing in Lubbock since 1974, but this FoxSheets trend favors a Longhorns win on Saturday night.

Play Against - Home underdogs (TEXAS TECH) - good passing team from last season - averaged 255 or more passing yards/game. (36-13 over the last 10 seasons.) (73.5%, +21.7 units. Rating = 2*).

And Texas’ likely strategy to run the football is just one of the reasons to expect the game to go below the 55-point Total. FoxSheets shows two other trends favoring the Under:

Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TEXAS TECH) - first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season. (40-13 over the last 10 seasons.) (75.5%, +25.7 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Under - Any team against the total (TEXAS) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. (82-41 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +36.9 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 09-15-2010, 06:09 PM

Can Washington cover as home underdog?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEBRASKA (-3)
at WASHINGTON

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
These teams meet for the first time since 1998, when Nebraska shellacked Washington 55-7. Speaking of shellacking, both schools are riding high after blowout wins. Nebraska led Idaho 31-0 in the first half and coasted to a 38-17 win. Washington pummeled Syracuse 41-20.

Nebraska has rushed for 649 yards and nine touchdowns, which ranks third in the nation in both categories. Freshman QB Taylor Martinez has gained 284 yards on the ground and five touchdowns. Running backs Roy Helu Jr. (14 rush, 136 yds) and Rex Burkhead (14 rush, 134 yds) have both averaged nearly 10 yards per carry.

Washington relies on an aerial assault with its star quarterback Jake Locker. After struggling with his accuracy (20-for-37) in a loss at BYU, Locker came back strong against Syracuse with 289 passing yards and four touchdowns. WR Jermaine Kearse ranks third in the nation with 287 receiving yards and four touchdowns. But now this Huskies duo is facing a Nebraska defense that had five interceptions in its last game and led the nation in pass efficiency last season. The Huskers also have a great head coach in Bo Pelini.

According to the FoxSheets, Pelini is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games off 1 or more straight overs as the coach of NEBRASKA. The average score was NEBRASKA 31.2, OPPONENT 19.7 - (Rating = 1*).

**jt4545** · 09-15-2010, 06:24 PM

Thanks for all the info

**StarDust Bum** · 09-15-2010, 06:52 PM

Wake Forest planning to start Price at QB

WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. (AP) -Wake Forest is making an early switch in its search for a successor to all-time passing leader Riley Skinner.

The Demon Deacons plan to start Tanner Price at quarterback for Saturday's game at No. 19 Stanford, relying on a freshman whose only real track record was playing well in relief of injured starter Ted Stachitas in the shootout win against Duke over the weekend.

``Obviously, he's a young guy and we're not trying to put too much pressure on him, but I think he's deserved that opportunity,'' coach Jim Grobe said Tuesday. ``It's a good thing. It's not like we had one guy play terrible and the other guy beat him out. I think we had two kids do some really good things (against Duke), but Tanner with his performance in the second half deserves the opportunity.''

Price completed 12 of 19 passes for 190 yards and three touchdowns in the 54-48 win. He also ran for 56 yards and a score, with most of that production coming after Stachitas bruised his non-throwing hand in the first half.

Stachitas is scheduled to have another X-ray on his left hand this week. He is listed on the depth chart as Price's backup and Grobe said Stachitas might be able to play in some role against Stanford if needed, though the Demon Deacons (2-0) will learn more about his status as he goes through practice this week.

If Stachitas is out, redshirt freshman Brendan Cross would be the backup.

``He's very poised for a true freshman,'' flanker Devon Brown said of Price. ``He can go in and get the job done. ... He went out there and showed what he's capable of doing, that it's above and beyond what we all expected.''

The Demon Deacons knew it would be tough to replace Skinner, who led the Demon Deacons to the Atlantic Coast Conference championship as a redshirt freshman, then set nearly every school passing record before graduating last year. That meant Grobe's team would have to go back to its running routes this year, though Price's second-half performance against the Blue Devils inspired some confidence among his teammates.

``Tanner came in and it was almost like he was a fifth-year senior and he'd been there a long time,'' center Russell Nenon said. ``He was laughing, having a good time and encouraging people in the huddle. That's reassuring as an offensive line, because you know he's maturing.''

**StarDust Bum** · 09-15-2010, 06:53 PM

Friday Night Lights

Bettors have a pair of televised games to wager on Friday night, as a pair of quality “mid-major” programs get rare chances to host BCS schools. The action starts in Hattiesburg, where Southern Miss will play host to Kansas. The Jayhawks will be looking to avoid a letdown following their upset win over Ga. Tech.

Later in the evening, Nevada will take on California from out of the Pac-10 in Reno. Let’s take a look at both of these games and more.

**Kansas at Southern Miss**

--As of Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had So. Miss (1-1 straight up, 0-1 against the spread) listed as a 5 ½-point favorite with a total of 49. Gamblers can take Turner Gill’s team to win outright for a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win $180).

--Larry Fedora’s team is coming off a 34-7 win over Prairie View A&M in a non-lined affair. The Golden Eagles jumped out to a 31-0 lead at halftime and cruised from there, resting most of their starters for much of the second half. Austin Davis threw for 178 yards and one touchdown to star receiver DeAndre Brown, who had five receptions for 100 yards.

--So. Miss got off to an inauspicious start in Week 1, dropping a 41-13 decision at South Carolina as a 13-point underdog. With the Gamecocks playing without four of their best players due to suspensions, some had suggested that So. Miss might have a chance to pull the outright upset. However, that notion never even came close to materializing.

--So. Miss has only been a home underdog once during Fedora’s three-year tenure. In that spot, the Golden Eagles failed to cover the number in a 24-7 loss to Boise St. as 11-point ‘dogs in 2008.

--Kansas (1-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) might have been the nation’s biggest goat in Week 1, losing at home to North Dakota St. by a 6-3 score in Gill’s debut. However, the Jayhawks responded last week by beating Ga. Tech 28-25 as 14-point home underdogs. Redshirt freshman quarterback Jordan Webb was given the starting nod against the Yellow Jackets and he answered the call with authority. Webb threw three touchdown passes, while true freshman RB James Sims ran for 101 yards on 17 carries. As the Jackets were threatening to get into field-goal range for a potential tying score in the final minute, KU stopped Ga. Tech on downs thanks to a false-start penalty on fourth and three that preceded a Josh Nesbitt incompletion.

--The 53 combined points in KU’s win over Ga. Tech slipped ‘over’ the 51-point total. The ‘over’ was also a winner for So. Miss in Week 1, as the 54 combined points eclipsed the 46-point tally.

--When these schools met in Lawrence last year, KU captured a 35-28 victory as a 13-point ‘chalk.’ So. Miss rallied from a 28-14 deficit to tie the game in the final stanza, but the Jayhawks got the game-winning score on a short drive after a 50-yard kickoff return.

--In the last five years, So. Miss has only hosted a BCS opponent twice. The Golden Eagles got past Virginia 37-34 last year, but the Cavs easily took the money as 14-point road underdogs. In ’06, they spanked N.C. St. 37-17 as three-point home favorites.

--ESPN will have television coverage Friday night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**California at Nevada**

--As of Wednesday afternoon, most books were listing California (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) as a three-point road favorite with a total of 65 ½. Bettors can back the home underdog on the money line for a plus-125 payout (risk $100 to win $125).

--Nevada (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) has lost seven straight games against BCS teams by an average margin of 22 points per game. Since 2005, the Wolf Pack is winless both SU and ATS in three home games versus BCS competition. They lost 55-21 to Washington St. as nine-point home ‘dogs in 2005. In ’08, Texas Tech emerged from Reno with a 35-19 win as a 10-point road ‘chalk,’ and Missouri captured a 31-21 victory as a 7 ½-point road favorite last year.

--UN is led by senior quarterback Colin Kaeparnick, who accounted for more than 400 yards and four touchdowns in last week’s 51-6 demolition of Colorado St. The Wolf Pack easily brought home the cash even though it was laying 24 ½ points. Kaepernick completed 21-of-29 throws for 241 yards and two TDs without an interception. He also rushed 161 yards and two scores on only 11 carries.

--Nevada racked up 631 total yards against the Rams. Senior RB Vai Taua rushed 15 times for 118 yards and one TD. He had a pair of TD runs in a season-opening home win over Eastern Washington by a 49-24 count.

--Jeff Tedford’s squad has beaten up on a couple of soft foes the first two weeks. Cal opened up with a 52-3 dismantling of UC Davis. Next, the Bears pounded Colorado and its lame-duck coach Dan Hawkins, 52-7.

--Cal scored the first 31 points against CU and cruised to an easy victory. Senior QB Kevin Riley threw for 197 yards and four touchdowns. He has yet to be intercepted this year compared to seven TD passes. The Bears got a pair of TDs from their defense and intercepted the Buffs’ Tyler Hansen three times.

--Since 2004 when Chris Ault began his second head-coaching stint at UN, his team has compiled a 4-6 spread record in 10 games as a home underdog.

--Cal owns an 11-15 spread record in 26 games as a road favorite during Tedford’s nine-year tenure.

--When I talked to BoDog’s Richard Gardner on Wednesday afternoon, he said California minus three was one of the BoDog players’ most popular selections for Week 3.

--Kick-off is slated for 10:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Kaepernick’s career touchdown-to-interception ratio is 65/16. He has 43 career rushing TDs.

--FSU has failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games as a double-digit favorite. As of late Wednesday afternoon, most books had the ‘Noles as 10-point home favorites vs. BYU. Gardner told VI, “We opened FSU at nine but almost all of the action that’s come in has been on the Seminoles.” BoDog had adjusted to 10 by Wednesday.

--We mentioned the heavy action on Cal at BoDog. Gardner added that Nebraska minus 3 ½ was the most one-sided action the book had taken for Saturday games. In fact, as of late Wednesday afternoon, most books still had the Cornhuskers favored by three at Washington. However, Gardner told me at 2:00 p.m. Eastern that BoDog had just adjusted the number from 3 ½ to four.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Andy Iskoe got burned when he backed FSU last week, but he won’t be making that mistake again Saturday. “My opinion of FSU has gone down significantly, especially after their poor defensive effort against Oklahoma,” Iskoe said. “I wasn’t impressed with BYU last week, either, but this is a huge revenge game for the Cougars. If the line continues to climb, I might get more interested in a BYU play.”

--Most books are listing Florida as a 14-point road favorite for its SEC opener Saturday at Tennessee. The Gators are 8-10 ATS as road favorites on Urban Meyer’s watch. They are 4-5 ATS as double-digit road ‘chalk’ since Meyer took over for Ron Zook.

Since 2000, Tennessee is 4-6 ATS in 10 games as a home underdog.

Announcement

The Bum's WEEK # 3 BEST BETS + NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (9/16 - 9/18) !

The Bum's WEEK # 3 BEST BETS + NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (9/16 - 9/18) !

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