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NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (9/2 - 9/6)
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NCAAF
Saturday, September 4
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Oregon State vs. TCU: What bettors need to know
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Oregon State Beavers vs. Texas Christian Horned Frogs (-13.5, 49.5)
The marquee game on Saturday’s college football card kicks off at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington where sixth-ranked TCU welcomes No. 24 Oregon State. The Horned Frogs and Beavers meet in one of only two games on the opening Saturday to feature ranked teams.
LB ‘U’
When you think TCU, you think defense.
Since 2005, the Frogs have allowed a meager 79.5 rushing yards per game – tops in the nation.
Over that span, Gary Patterson’s stop-unit has held 45 opponents to under 333 total yards of offense, producing a 43-2 record in those games.
Tank Carder and Tanner Brock lead a young and talented group of linebackers.
Carder had 89 tackles last year as a sophomore, second-most on the team. He brings speed and strength and a year of experience. Brock, a sophomore, led the Frogs with 14 special teams tackles last season and made his mark on the TCU football program with a no-helmet block on a punt return last season.
Their pursuit of the ball is crucial in the Frogs' 4-2-5 defense and expectations are high. Carder was named the Mountain West Conference preseason Defensive Player of the Year and is on the watch lists for many defensive awards.
Not surprisingly, a linebacker has led the Frogs in tackles in seven of Gary Patterson's nine years as head coach.
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE BALL
The TCU offense is led by QB Andy Dalton, the Mountain West Conference Player of the Year last season.
The 6’ 3” senior signal caller enters the 2010 season as the No. 3 career passer in TCU history, behind legendary quarterbacks Sammy Baugh and Davey O’Brien.
Ironically, Dalton is 29-7 as a starter with the Frogs, which mirrors Baugh’s 29-7-2 mark.
"We're going to have to make plays on both sides of the ball," Patterson said. "The team that makes the most plays in the red zone is probably going to be the team that wins."
After an intense day of practice on Wednesday, Patterson went on to say, “Our legs and our morale are back. We needed a day like [this]. I don't expect this game to be low-scoring."
TOUGH QUIZZ
Make no mistake about it - 5-foot-7 OSU RB Jacquizz Rodgers is the Beavers’ Heisman Trophy candidate.
Jacquizz rushed for 1,440 yards and 21 touchdowns as a sophomore last season.
His goal this year: to lead the Beavers back to the Rose Bowl for the first time in 46 years.
That goal motivates him more than any of the individual accolades he might garner this season, even the famous Heisman Trophy award, which only one player in the state of Oregon has ever captured - Terry Baker, a fellow Beaver, 48 years ago.
"His work ethic," running back coach Reggie Davis says, "is second to none. And as a competitor, he's at the top of the charts. He absolutely hates to lose. He hates it when the other guys mess up. He wants things done the right way. He wants everybody to work as hard as he does."
How much of a perfectionist is Rodgers? Eight months later he's still upset about his fumble - his first and only one in 656 career carries as a Beaver - against BYU in last season's Las Vegas Bowl.
Jacquizz will return to the state where he holds the all-time rushing TD record (136).
His brother James, a senior, led the Beavers with 91 receptions for 1,034 yards and nine touchdowns. They both graduated from Lamar Consolidated High School, southwest of Houston – a four-hour drive up I-45 to Arlington.
This was a moment that was supposed to happen two years ago at the Sun Bowl in El Paso, but a cracked scapula kept the then freshman running back from performing. Brother James also missed the Sun Bowl because of a broken collarbone. This will be their first game back in Texas.
KATZ AND DOGS
Two-touchdown underdog Oregon State will turn to sophomore quarterback Ryan Katz, and because he's without game experience, the pressure is already seen centering toward him.
"We start doing that (prepare for pressure) with our quarterbacks when they start traveling with our team," head coach Mike Riley said. "(Katz) spent a year backing up. So we start telling those guys to pay close attention to what's happening with our starter, and pay close attention to how you handle this position and prepare for this position."
"His big deal about being quarterback for this team is stuff you don't see - the preparation he has to make inside the meeting room and the film room, and then putting it into practice out here on the practice fields… I know he's capable of leading this team."
BEAVER FEVER
For the first time since the 2001 season Oregon State opens the season in the Associated Press top-25.
The Beavers have finished the year in the AP top 25 three of the last four years (missing 2009 by two spots).
While OSU plays just three games in September, two are against top 10 teams TCU and Boise State. The Beavers have never played two top-10 teams in the same season.
BELIEVE IT OR NOT
The only team to finish in the top three of the Pac-10 Conference standings each of the last four years is… Oregon State?
The Beavers have combined for a conference record of 25-11 (.694) during that time.
Half full
A crowd of 40,000 in a stadium designed to seat over 70,000 isn't exactly what the people at TCU, Oregon State, the Dallas Cowboys or ESPN had in mind when they scheduled this game.
It was back when they all agreed to the following price points for tickets:
$ 163.13 (Best seat)
$ 111.24 (Good seat)
$ 84.99 (Decent seat)
$ 53.05 (Birds-eye JerryTron seat)
One season ticket for the best seat in the house at TCU is $210. That covers the entire home schedule, six games.
In today’s economy, money talks and Texas-sized B.S. walks.
HELL FREEZES OVER
TCU will don Nike’s new Pro Combat uniforms this season.
This year the lizard-skin print in "Night Silver and White" evokes TCU coaching legend Dutch Meyer, who famously said "Fight 'em 'til hell freezes over, then fight 'em on the ice."
"Til hell freezes" is stitched into the back yoke of the jersey and on the inner cuff of the gloves.
DEEP IN THE HEART OF…
Under Patterson, TCU stands 54-11 straight-up in games played in the state of Texas, including 37-23-1 against the spread.
The Beavers have journeyed into Texas on four different occasions during the regular season since 1980. They are 0-4 straight-up and against the spread in those games, losing by a combined margin of 168-53.
Oregon State is 2-0 straight-up and 1-1 against the spread in bowl games played the nation’s largest state.
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NCAAF
Saturday, September 4
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Tips and Trends
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Purdue Boilermakers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish [NBC | 3:30 PM ET]
BOILERMAKERS: Purdue is another one of those middle of the pack teams from a BCS conference with the ability to outperform preseason expectations. The Boilermakers have the ability to be a high powered offense, possibly even better than last year's edition. For Purdue to make it to a bowl game this year, it is vital that they take better care of the ball. Last year, Purdue had 29 critical turnovers. New QB Robert Marve has all the physical tools to be an elite quarterback. Marve started his career in Miami, yet struggled with off the field issues which ultimately led to his transfer. Marve has a talented group of receivers at his disposal, including WR Keith Smith. Smith averaged nearly 8 RPG to lead the entire Big Ten. Another key factor for the Boilermakers in their drive for a bowl berth is their ability to stop their opponents running game. 3 of the past 4 years, Purdue has finished last in Big-10 in stopping the run. Purdue also has to break in an entirely new secondary, so their backs are up against the wall today. The Boilermakers are 11-28 all time when playing in Notre Dame stadium.
Boilermakers under is 28-11-1 in PURD last 40 games on grass.
Key Injuries -RB Ralph Bolden (knee) is out.
Projected Score: 17
FIGHTING IRISH: (-11, O/U 54.5) Notre Dame made major news this past offseason, as they hired new Head Coach Brian Kelly. Kelly is expected to take Notre Dame all the way to the top, much like he did for the Cincinnati program. Since Kelly's arrival, he has changed the Notre Dame offense to a quick strike spread offense, while the defense has gone from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense. A few different QB's are likely to see playing time for the Fighting Irish, and they will all be looking for WR Michael Floyd. Floyd averaged 113 YPG last year, and finished the season with 9 TD's. Defensive Coordinator Bob Diaco has switched to a 3-4 defense because he's committed to stopping the run. Too many times last year Notre Dame were outclassed on the ground, as they gave up numerous big runs last year. Coach Kelly is likely to have his players motivated right out of the gate, as they have Michigan in their next game. The season starts off rather tough, especially considering the weighty expectations placed on the Fighting Irish with the hiring of Coach Kelly.
Notre Dame is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 38 (SIDE of the Day)
Oregon St. Beavers at TCU Horned Frogs [ESPN | 7:45 PM ET]
BEAVERS: Oregon St. is one of a few teams that believe they can win the Pac-10 Championship this year. For the Beavers to accomplish their stated goals this year, it's important for them to get off to a good start. The Beavers tend to live by the rule of starting slow, and finishing strong. This season, the Beavers need to get off to a flying start. Oregon St. returns 16 starters from a successful season last year, almost ending with their 1st Rose Bowl berth in 45 years. Offensively, the Rodgers brothers (James and Jacquizz) accumulated 4,290 YDS last season. Much will be expected of them again this season, especially while the Beavers get accustomed to a new QB. The offensive line for Oregon St. is one of the strengths of this team, as they return 4 starters. Defensive stalwart Stephen Paea leads the Oregon St. defense, as he turned down NFL stardom to return for his Senior season. The Beavers are a very well balanced team, that is also very well coached. Head Coach Mike Riley is one of the sharpest minds in college football. For the Beavers, tonight's game will show them exactly what type of team they are going to be this season.
Beavers are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games in September.
Under is 10-4 in Beavers last 14 non-conference games.
Key Injuries - WR James Rodgers (shoulder) is probable.
Projected Score: 17
HORNED FROGS: (-13.5, O/U 50.5) TCU has national title aspirations, as they field one of the most complete, balanced teams in the country. The Horned Frogs start the season ranked 6th in the nation. Last year TCU started the season ranked 16th and started the year 12-0 before losing their final game of the season. That loss to Boise St. in the Fiesta Bowl has stuck with this TCU team all offseason, so they enter this season very hungry. From a line perspective, tonight's game will be one of the toughest games TCU plays all year. TCU will be the listed favorite in each game they play, with only 1 game expected to be as a single digit favorite. QB Andy Dalton is the leader of this team, as he is the reigning Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year. Dalton was 8th in the Nation lasy ear in pass efficiency with a 151.8 rating. Defensively, the Horned Frogs will remain one of the fastest teams in the nation. TCU led the nation in total defense last year, allowing only 239.7 YPG. The scariest thing for opposing teams this year? TCU is expected to be even better this year overall, as they attempt to make a run at a BCS Championship.
TCU is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
Under is 4-0-1 in Horned Frogs last 5 neutral site games.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 24 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
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NCAAF
Sunday, September 5
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What bettors need to know
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Tulsa at East Carolina (+7, 58.5)
East Carolina, the two-time defending Conference USA champion, hosts league preseason favorite Tulsa. Game time is 2 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
LINE MOVEMENT
Tulsa opened as 4.5-point favorites, a number that has risen to 7.5 and is as high as 8.5. The over/under line has risen slightly from 57 to 59 on most boards.
RELOADING OR REBUILDING?
East Carolina has won the last two C-USA titles, but this year isn’t considered a contender. That’s because the Pirates are trying to replace a whopping 30 letter winners, the most of any team in the nation.
Just two starters on defense return, and the entire front seven is gone.
It’s also the first game for new EWC coach Ruffin McNeill; he was an assistant at Texas Tech the last 10 years, taking over for Skip Holtz, who skipped out of town for South Florida.
BUILDING COMPLETE?
Tulsa’s Todd Graham, meanwhile, enters his fourth year (26-14 in that span). For the first time, he has a returning QB to work with in Texas transfer GJ Kinne. Kinne threw for 2,732 and is expected to be one of the top QBs in C-USA. The offense returns nine starters in all, including Kinne’s top target of a year ago, Damaris Johnson (78 catches, 1,131 yards).
The question is - will Kinne have any time to find Johnson? The Hurricane allowed 46 sacks last season, third-worst in the nation.
INJURY REPORT
It doesn’t help Tulsa’s OL issues that freshman Jake Alexander, considered the team’s top recruit of 2010, will miss the entire season after having knee surgery last Friday. Alexander was challenging for a starting slot at guard.
TRENDS
* Tulsa is 5-1 ATS in its last six games in September. Meanwhile, ECU is 0-6 ATS in its last six September games.
* In those six ECU September games, the over is 5-1.
* Last year, Tulsa trailed by just six points to ECU before turnovers turned the game into a 44-17 win for the Pirates.
* ECU has won five straight home openers, though the home team has lost the last three in this series.
Texas Tech vs. SMU (-13.5, 60)
Expect fireworks when SMU coach June Jones brings his Run-and-Shoot to Lubbock to face Texas Tech and the spread o
ffense of new Red Raiders coach Tommy Tuberville.
LINE MOVEMENT
Tech opened as a 10.5-point favorite, but that number has since risen to as high as 14 on some boards. The O/U is now at 60.5 after rising as high as 62.5 during the week.
TUBERVILLE GROWING PAINS?
Some experts predict some growing pains as Tech enters a new era with longtime Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville taking over for the fired Mike Leach. But he’s surrounded himself with experience.
Starting QB Taylor Potts returns for his senior year. And Tech’s new offensive coordinator is former Troy OC Neal Brown. Troy’s spread threw for 4,375 yards and ran for 1,939 more last season, and ranked fourth in the nation in total yards. Tuberville has promised a little more balance to the offense, too.
Expect better things with the defense-minded Tuberville, and new defensive coordinator James Willis, plucked from the staff at national champion Alabama.
Some are concerned, however, that Willis’ attack-at-most-times defense may be susceptible to the Run-and-Shoot.
JONES FINDS HIS QB
June Jones has historically moribund SMU headed in the right direction. The former Hawaii coach took over the Mustangs in 2008 and went 1-11, but just one year later the squad went 8-5.
The big difference: He found his quarterback Kyle Pardon, who started the final six games last year as a true freshman (going 5-1) and is poised for a breakout sophomore campaign.
“We want to be conference champions. We want to be the No. 1 team in the country in passing offense,” Pardon told a Dallas TV station.
TRENDS/NOTES
* These two teams last played on Sept. 13, 2008, and it was not pretty; a 43-7 drubbing of the Mustangs. It was 43-0 before a fourth quarter TD by SMU, and the Mustangs were outgained by 419 yards.
* SMU are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. Big 12.
* Texas Tech is 16-1 in home openers, with the average score being 43-16. In addition, Tech as beaten SMU 13 straight meetings.
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NCAAF
Sunday, September 5
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Tips and Trends
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Tulsa Golden Hurricane at East Carolina Pirates [ESPN2 | 2:00 PM ET]
HURRICANE: (-7,5, O/U 59) This season is about redemption for Tulsa, and no better game illustrates this point than their season opener today. The Golden Hurricane are looking to get revenge against ECU, after the horrible 17-44 defeat last year. That humiliating loss was their worst defeat last year. Tulsa finished last season 5-7, the first time they didn't play in the postseason since 2004. The biggest problem for this team last year appears to be a strength this year. The offensive line is completely in place, as opposed to last year when they had 8 different lineup variations. This line will be looking to protect quarterback G.J. Kinne. Kinne is a very talented QB, and he's looking to lead this offense back to the days of 2007 and 2008 when Tulsa led the nation in total offense. Safety DeAundre Brown will lead this relatively underrated defense this year. Brown had 102 tackles last year, and he looks to lead a defense that welcomes back 2 other key tacklers. Tulsa has played to the under in 10 of their 12 games played on grass.
Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
Under is 10-2 in Golden Hurricane last 12 games on grass.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 31 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
PIRATES: It's very fitting that East Carolina starts the season as a home underdog. The Pirates are a proud program, but they have their backs against the wall this season. ECU has a new head coach, and are breaking in 15 new starters from a team that has won the Conference USA the past 2 seasons. Coach McNeill is putting his stamp on the program, as the Pirates are changing to a spread offense and a 4-3 defense. Flat out, it's going to take some time for his program to get accustomed to these drastic changes. Offensively, the Pirates will look to their passing game and WR Dwayne Harris in particular. Harris had 83 REC for 873 YDS last year, earning C-USA Special Teams Player of the Year. East Carolina has alot of work to do if they are going to make their 5th consecutive bowl game. Non conference road games at Virginia Tech and North Carolina figure to toughen this team up for the coming league schedule.
Pirates are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
Over is 5-1 in Pirates last 6 conference games.
Key Injuries - DB Dekota Marshall (leg) is out.
Projected Score: 21
SMU Mustangs at Texas Tech Red Raiders [ESPN | 3:30 PM ET]
MUSTANGS: Southern Methodist is trying to prove that they are a team on the rise, as they look to reach a bowl game for the 2nd consecutive season. Head Coach June Jones has done an amazing job with this program, taking this team to a bowl game last year for the first time since 1984. The Mustangs were a surprising 8-5 last year, including 6-2 in league play. Coach Jones has stated that he expects a similar year this year, and he's looking for QB Kyle Padron to lead the way. Padron really came on strong last year, culminating in an MVP performance at the Hawaii Bowl. Padron was able to put up big numbers in the June Jones offense, but most importantly he led them to a 5-1 SU record. The Mustangs have lost all world WR Emmanuel Sanders and RB Shawnbrey McNeal, so they have to break in some new skill position talent. This Mustangs 3-4 defense is improving every year, becoming more and more aggresive. For SMU to continue their rise to national prominence, this defensive unit must continue to improve.
Mustangs are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. Big 12.
Under is 4-1-1 in Mustangs last 6 road games.
Key Injuries - WR Cole Loftin (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 27 (SIDE of the Day)
RED RAIDERS: (-13.5, O/U 60.5) For a team with remarkable consistency, it's amazing to have so much turmoil on the sidelines. Texas Tech remains the only Big 12 program to finish at least .500 in each of the conference's 14 years. The Red Raiders will take the field without the services of former coach Mike Leach, as he was fired after 10 colorful seasons. In his place is former Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville. Tuberville has made waves in Lubbock, as he has stated publicly that the Red Raiders will win multiple championships under his watch. Texas Tech will continue to be an offensive force, as they have an elite level passing offense. However, Tuberville has stated he wants to run the ball more frequently this year with Baron Batch. Batch rushed for nearly 900 YDS last year, including 14 TD's. Texas Tech has changed their defensive identity, switching to a 3-4 defense. The Red Raiders are also expected to play more players on the defensive side of the ball, as they look to shore up their 4th Quarter woes.
Red Raiders are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Over is 4-1 in Red Raiders last 5 non-conference games.
Key Injuries - DB LaRon Moore (leg) is out.
Projected Score: 31
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NCAAF
Write-Up
Sunday's games
East Carolina has new coach; they upset Tulsa last two years, running ball for 242 yards in LY's game, but have downgraded drastically at head coach. Pirates are 20-7-1 as an underdog since '05, 10-3-1 as home dog since since '04. Tulsa is 12-14-1 as favorite under Graham, 6-8-1 on road. Hurricane has top eight rushers back, but no seniors start on OL. ECU has three senior starters on OL, but a new QB (Boston College transfer).
SMU is 15-9-1 as road underdog since 2005; they've got 15 starters back from LY, with five juniors starting on OL- they got to bowl LY for first time in 25 years, are program on rise. Texas Tech has new coach, will be totally different, because any after Leach would be drastic change. Tech is 8-9 as home favorite since '06, 6-9 vs spread in non-conference games. Red Raiders have senior QB but start three sophomores on the OL.
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NCAAF
Monday, September 6
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Tips and Trends
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Maryland Terrapins at Navy Midshipmen [ESPN | 4:00 PM ET]
TERRAPINS: Maryland is coming off one of their most disappointing seasons in recent history, a paltry 2-10 record. Including in those 10 losses was finishing the season with 7 consecutive losses. The Terrapins faithful were asking for the firing of Head Coach Ralph Friedgen, but he is back for at least one more season. Maryland has only had 2 winning seasons in their past 6, yet this year's edition has the tools to be competitive. 7 starters return on offense this year, which should help this team improve from last year's 21.3 PPG. RB Da'Rel Scott is completely healthy for the first time since 2008. Scott was a 1st team All-ACC performer in 2008, and will be looked upon early and often this year. Defensively, 4 of the top 5 tacklers from last year return for the Terrapins. These 4 Terrapins will look to improve a unit that was tied for last in scoring average in the ACC at 31.2 PPG. Sharp money appears to be coming in on Maryland, as this point spread originally opened up with the Terrapins as a double digit underdog.
Terrapins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
Over is 5-1 in Terrapins last 6 non-conference games.
Key Injuries - DB Cameron Chism (hamstring) is probable.
Projected Score: 21 (SIDE of the Day)
MIDSHIPMEN: (-6.5, O/U 48.5) Navy enters this season with much optimism. The Midshipmen return the core nucleus of a team that won 10 games last year, including a dismantling of Missouri in the Texas Bowl last year. Navy nearly entered the preseason Top 25 polls, so this service academy is finally getting the respect it deserves. Speaking of respect, QB Ricky Dobbs might be the best player in college football that you've never heard of. Last year, Dobbs rushed for 1,200 YDS, threw for 1,00 YDS, and had 33 total TD's. Dobbs is entering his 3rd year as the starting QB for the unique Navy offense. Last year, Navy was 4th in the country in rushing, averaging 280.5 YPG. Head Coach Ken Niumatalolo is entering his 3rd year with Navy, and he's gone 18-10 SU in his tenure thus far. Navy is looking to start their season strong, yet their schedule does them no favors. The Midshipmen have only 1 home game before October 16th. Navy has played in high scoring games against the ACC conference in the past, going 9-2-1 in their past 12 contests.
Midshipmen are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.
Under is 4-1 in Midshipmen last 5 games on grass.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 23
Boise St. Broncos at Virginia Tech Hokies [ESPN | 8:00 PM ET]
BRONCOS: (-1.5, O/U 50.5) Boise St. finally has a legitimate chance of winning the BCS National Championship. That statement isn't made to disrespect any past edition of the Broncos, as they simply started the season behind too many other teams. This year, Boise St. is starting the season ranked #3 in the country, so they only have to pass 1 other team to play for the National Championship. The Broncos toughest game is today, as this is the only game this year that will feature a single digit spread for the Broncos. 22 of 24 starters are back from last year's team that ultimately went undefeated. QB Kellen Moore is a legitamte Heisman candidate, after finishing 7th in the voting last year. Moore finished 2nd in the country in pass efficiency last year at 161.65, including 39 TD passes against only 3 INT's. Moore will be throwing to all conference receivers Austin Pettis and Titus Young, both seniors who totaled double digit TD's last year. Defensively, this unit only lost 1 significant contributor from last season's overlooked defense. Coach Chris Peterson has had several months to prepare for Virginia Tech, so you know he has some trick plays at his disposal. Peterson is 49-4 SU since taking over as head coach of the Broncos.
Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Under is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 non-conference games.
Key Injuries - OL Faraji Wright (undisclosed) is questionable.
Projected Score: 24 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
HOKIES: Watching this Virginia Tech team this year, you will quickly realize this isn't your father's Hokies. This years edition of the Hokies are explosive on offense, and likely to be a bit shaky on defense and on special teams. Virginia Tech is very young and inexperienced with these units, so they are likely to lean on their offense and experienced skill players to lead them to the promise land. Virginia Tech has a relatively easy schedule to start the year, with only 2 true road games in their first 9 games overall. QB Tyrod Taylor is the unquestioned leader of this offense, as he made great strides last year with his ability to manage a game. Proof of this in his passing efficiency, as he led the ACC in this category. Taylor threw 13 TD's against only 5 INT's last year, to go along with his running ability that makes him so elusive and dangerous. Despite an ACC best 15.6 PPG allowed last year, the Hokies defense is in a bit of a rebuilding mode.
This coming year will prove whether the system makes the players or if the players make the system.
Hokies are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games in September.
Over is 4-1 in Hokies last 5 neutral site games.
Key Injuries - LB Alonzo Tweedy (groin) is doubtful.
Projected Score: 21
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NCAAF
Monday, September 6
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What bettors need to know
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Boise State Broncos vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (Pick, 51)
The marquee matchup of college football’s first weekend and one of the most highly anticipated games of the season kicks off Labor Day night in Landover, MD.
The loser of Boise State-Virginia Tech is certainly eliminated from a chance at a national championship, while the winner will have few, if any, obstacles standing in its way to be included in the BCS title picture.
LINE MOVEMENT
The Broncos opened as 2.5-point favorites but early action on the Hokies moved the line down to as low as a pick, where it has remained for a few days.
Nearly 70 percent of the public has sided with the over, which is evident by the total steadily rising from 49.5.
SIGNIFICANT INJURIES
Both teams have a projected starting offensive lineman doubtful for the game. Boise State right tackle Garrett Pendergast has an injured ankle while left tackle Nick Becton of Virginia Tech is hampered with a toe injury.
EVEN MORE "SPECIAL"
Since coach Frank Beamer has been at Virginia Tech, his teams have been synonymous with excellent special teams play. Although, Beamer’s Hokies might have met their match come Monday night.
Boise State has arguably the best overall special teams unit in the country. Last season, Kyle Brotzman made 18 of 25 field goals and had almost a 44-yard punting average. Titus Young averaged 26.9 yards per kick return, taking two back for scores, while Chris Potter averaged 12.9 yards per punt return.
In what is perceived to be a close affair, the game’s winner could very well be decided by which team has the upper hand on special teams.
VULNERABLE VERSUS THE RUN
If the Broncos did have a weakness during its undefeated season a year ago, it was their vulnerability against particular running games. In 2009, Fresno State, Idaho, and Nevada combined to average 6.0 yards per rush and 257 rushing yards per game against Boise.
The Hokies may have college football’s best rushing attack, showcasing running backs Ryan Williams (1,655 rushing yards last season) and Darren Evans (1,265 yards in ’08) and dual-threat quarterback Tyrod Taylor.
“We probably haven’t seen this combination with a power-run game and an elusive quarterback…” said Bronco head coach Chris Petersen to the Washington Examiner.
KEY MATCHUP
It could be argued quarterback Kellen Moore has yet to have a sub-par performance in his 27 games at Boise State. If his collegiate career ended today, Moore’s passing rating would rank in college football’s top-10 of all time.
Moore will face a Virginia Tech defense that lost seven starters from 2009, including two defensive backs, but does return All-American candidate cornerback Rashad Carmichael.
“[The Hokies] might be one of the most impressive [teams] in how quickly they get to the ball and how they cover on defense,” Moore told The Times-News Online. “I think they are a very smart team that doesn’t screw up.”
Virginia Tech’s pass defense, like always, still should be solid, but it might not be in line with its past units, especially when facing a quarterback with the caliber of Moore.
TRENDS
This will be nearly a home game for Virginia Tech, where the Hokies have covered seven in a row as an underdog since 1992.
For most game situations, Boise State has been one of the nation’s best ATS teams over the last decade. Since 2000, the Broncos have covered 63 percent of their games overall, including going 27-19 ATS as an away favorite.
The under is 6-1 in Boise State’s last seven non-conference games and 5-2 in Virginia Tech’s last seven games overall.
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NCAAF
Write-Up
Monday's games
Despite their proximity, Navy-Maryland have met once since '65. Navy is +24 in turnovers last two years; they have a terrific senior QB, but are 3-5-1 vs spread in last nine games as favorite, 1-4 as favorite on the road (this is neutral site) since 2007. Maryland is 7-14 vs spread in non-ACC games since '04; they have new QB, three soph starters on OL, but their top five rushers from LY are back. Terps lost six starters on defense, not good against the Middies' option attack.
Boise State is 9-3 vs spread on road last two years; they only lost four seniors from LY, but did lose DC to Tennessee. Broncos have QB with 26 career starts, four starters back on OL. 18 of Boise's top 19 tacklers from LY are back. This is basically a home game for nearby Va Tech-- Hokies lost seven starters on defense (lost nine of last 13 tacklers on D) , but have senior QB with 28 starts. Tech is 11-4 against spread in last 15 games as underdog, but is just 5-10-2 in last 17 non-conference games.
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