Tommy Gold NHL 2009/2010 Playoffs Picks

[TommyGold]

NHL PLAYOFFS (29-41-3, -6.91u) 2010.05.29 final pick: *


Philadelphia Flyers @ Chicago Blackhawks

Stanley Cup finals! After both conferences ended with a winner, now is time to clash the eastern against the western. Philadelphia Flyers or Chicago Blackhawks will follow to Pittsburgh Penguins, the champion last year. This is the higher point of a season, where the Blackhawks were always trying to prove that they were truly contenders while the Flyers passed a really bad month that bring them a new coach.

That bad month almost ruined their season, as they hadn't a easy way to the playoffs, where they arrived as a dogs in all the series they played. So, when both teams achieve this final, we could say that they are both tired as this is the end of a long season, but none more tired than other. Their will to win this cup, and end this season well is enough to give them strengths.

However, there could be a little edge for the Flyers. They were able to bounce back from a 3-0 against the Bruins. And if like it wasn't enough, they were also able to bounce back from a 3-0 in game 7. This epic series for them, give them the confidence needed to be a champion. After a 4-1 against the almighty Devils, they had a 4-3 against the Bruins in a historic series.

That confidence made them able to shutdown by 4-1 a close team like the Canadiens, that won to the Penguins and Capitals. So, they arrive to this Stanley Cup final highly moralized, they have the momentum on their side, as they are 8-1 since the 3 losses in a row against the Bruins. The Blackhawks had an easy way, as they had a 2-1 against them in the beginning, but since then, they were always leading their series.

Their offensive power as been their key, and the 4-0 they gave to the Sharks, at the date the strongest contenders to the Stanley Cup, give them also confidence to approach this game. Tonight, we will have a clash between two good offensive teams. Both are confident, and are aware that their best keys are their offense. None will play this game with a low pace, as only a good offensive will win this game.

The Flyers were able to pass trough a thought defense, the Canadiens defense, and the Hawks passed the Sharks defense. The Flyers are 8-1 in the last 9 games against the Hawks, but that will not the difference today. At Chicago, everyone knows that they will have to keep their high pace, and try to take the edge they can take in their offense, as the Flyers haven't the best defense.

Philadelphia is also aware that they have to keep their offensive role, as they are doing lately. Only scoring more than the Blackhawks can give them a precious win to start this final.

Pick: Over 5.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes


* One unit each always.

[TommyGold]

NHL PLAYOFFS (30-41-3, -6u) 2010.05.29 results recap:

Philadelphia Flyers @ Chicago Blackhawks: Over 5.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes (6-5: WIN)

NHL 2010.05.29 finished 1-0 and +0.91 units won/1 unit risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 196-258-7, -11.49 units lost (454 units risked)

NHL since 2009.11.23: 164-196-7, +7.11 units won (360 units risked)

[TommyGold]

NHL PLAYOFFS (30-41-3, -6u) 2010.05.31 final pick: *


Philadelphia Flyers @ Chicago Blackhawks

After a great game starting this Stanley Cup final, the expectations of a great final are high. The Flyers were able to be in the lead during the game for some time, due to 5 goals scored in the fist 2 periods. But in the last period, the Hawks were finally able to bounce back, scoring while suffering none goal.

The game didn't have lot's of shots, but had a great accuracy. Both teams are motivated, and even with a loss, the Flyers are pretty good to handle with defeats. But after such a great game from both teams, we could expect the same confidence from the players to score easily today as well.

One particularity is that only Flyers had PP situations, scoring only one PP goal. From these goad teams in PP situations, we can expect a great improve today, and more than only one PP goal in the entire game. Once again, we should look to the offense despite the defense.

Both teams are much better offensively than defensively. The last game clearly show it, as only one team miss the target to score at least one goal in each period. In the Hawks side, we should not forget that players like Toews and Kane can produce much more than last game.

Chicago at home shouldn't let Flyers snap any game, they showed in the last game what is needed to be a champion, and the talent that their team have. They are confident, and at Chicago the euphoria are spreading out to the United Center at Chicago.

The Flyers arrived here with their own merit, despite some surprise. Some people says that they had an easy playoffs, but facing the Devils or a 0-3 in on series or 0-3 in game 7, is never an easy thing. In their last 7 playoff games, the team is scoring an average of 3.7 goals per game, and this is a good indicator of their confidence and good shape in the offensive line.

With both teams having what it's need to be a champion, winning on the road can be the key for this series. Despite the favoritism for the Hawks, the Flyers will have a word to say, just like they did in the previous series. And the offensive produce will keep to be the biggest edge, with the team that could easily overcome the others defense being probably the winner of the game.

Even with many thinking that today it will be a game with a lower pace, the game will not be much different, even with a worst accuracy, both teams can easily score, as none have strongest line in the defense.

Pick: Over 6 +105 (2.05) 5Dimes, BetPhoenix


* One unit each always.

[TommyGold]

NHL PLAYOFFS (30-42-3, -7u) 2010.05.31 results recap:

Philadelphia Flyers @ Chicago Blackhawks: Over 6 +105 (2.05) 5Dimes (2-1: LOSS)

NHL 2010.05.31 finished 0-1 and -1 unit lost/1 unit risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 196-259-7, -12.49 units lost (455 units risked)

NHL since 2009.11.23: 164-197-7, +6.11 units won (361 units risked)

[TommyGold]

NHL PLAYOFFS (30-42-3, -7u) 2010.06.02 final 2 picks:


Chicago Blackhawks @ Philadelphia Flyers

This will be game 3, and perhaps the game that can give us a clear vision of who will be the champion. Philadelphia is down 2-0, but they aren't out of the road. We can't forget the epic series they had against the Bruins. Another important thing to keep in mind, is that the Flyers are 22-7 in their last 29 home games, including a 4-0 run since their bounce back against the Bruins.

Is highly probable that the Blackhawks will make the same approach for this game as they have done lately in their road games. Their goal will be to come back home with a win at Philadelphia, an they know that they are stronger than the Flyers. They are with a 13-2 run lately in this playoffs, including a 7-0 run with their 4-0 win against the (theoretically) strongest contenders.

On the road, they explore a lot their offense, as it's easier to a team like them to make best offensive plays when they have more space. Despite a great road record, they will face a team that will have to play like equal to try to tie this series when they are down by 2-0, and that will make us probably see a game like game 1, with lot's of goals. The Blackhawks are good offensively, and in their last 6 road games, that are with an average higher than 4.5 goals scored per game.

Philadelphia is aware that a loss today will put them again in the hard position they had against the Bruins. However, since that series, the team is highly moralized and confident. Despite 2 losses in the first 2 games in this Stanley Cup finals, the team are playing well and giving a great replica against the favorites. They lost both games only by one goal, and were close to a win in game 1, failing only in the third period.

At home, the team have a good record. They already showed that they can easily score against Chicago, not, and in front of their supporters, the team will have to confirm it. They know they can win this game, as they can play a game with a high pace and achieve a win, specially at home. The powerplays will probably be the key for this game, as there have been few PP situations lately, but the Flyers were able to score the only PP goals so far in this final.

The fact that Chicago will probably try to snap this first game at Philadelphia, will be good for the Flyers, as they will probably have more spaces to score and a better control of the game.

Picks: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +240 (3.40) 5Dimes & Over 5.5 -105 (1.95) 5Dimes


* One unit each always.

[TommyGold]

NHL PLAYOFFS (31-43-3, -7.05u) 2010.06.04 final 2 picks:


Chicago Blackhawks @ Philadelphia Flyers

It wasn't easy, but the Flyers are only one step away to tie this Stanley Cup Finals, after a 2-0. The home factor is making the difference so far, if the first two games at Chicago were won by the home team by only 1 goal, the game at Philadelphia were won only in OT by the Flyers.

So, at this point, even with a 2-1 lead for the Blackhawks, both teams still have great chances to win Stanley Cup. The Hawks were pointed as the favorites since the beginning. Due to lot's of road wins in this playoffs, after a 2-0 lead, most of the people were convinced that the Hawks were half a step away from the Stanley Cup.

But the Flyers have tonight a big chance to tie this series. And as we saw previously, the Flyers can give a surprise on the road, while the Hawks showed earlier in this playoffs some issues at home against Canadians teams.

Chicago is playing well in their offense, but can't manage their defense as well as they wish. But perhaps the problem is other, as the Flyers can overcome even the best performance from the Hawks defense line. At game 2, we watched a 2-1 win for the Hawks at Chicago, with the same amount of shots that we saw in last game (4-3 win for the Flyers).

That game was well played, but some anxious problems from both sides avoid goals that would happen 90 times in 100. The Hawks, that were more confident before the beginning of this finals, are now aware that this could give them more work than they thought. While they can't work better their defense, they will have to score more than the Flyers, and focus on that.

Their offensive lines have a great potential, and the game that they can play better against the Flyers is that one. The Flyers are confident that can bounce back from the 2-0 in this finals, with home wins and try to snap a win at Chicago, that weren't so far as it seemed in the first two games. The team is showing a good game, and in my opinion, is showing the best game between both teams at this finals.

Even with results against them, Philadelphia only need a win today to tie the series. They can miss their chances tonight at home. The Flyers once against started as dogs, but are showing a better game. They are scoring PP goals, something that they will probably keep today, while allowing few PP and allowed none PP goal in this finals. In their last 8 games, they only allowed 1 PP goal, while scored 8 PP goals in the same time, including 3 games without any PP goal against the Canadiens.

Tonight, we can expect a moralized and confident team from the Flyers. Their offensive power has been great lately, and despite a 4-3 win last game in OT, we can expect improvement in offensive field. In last game, the first offensive line composed by Carter, Richards and Gagne didn't scored or assisted any goal. Giroux and Briere were the stars. Today, we can expect the same from the offensive players, but also more from the first line.

Picks: Philadelphia Flyers -0.5 +146 (2.46) 5Dimes & Over 5.5 -107 (1.93) 5Dimes


* One unit each always. I will spend the weekend out of town, so I might not post any picks. Good Luck!

[bryce]

Good luck TG!!

[TommyGold]

Thank You very much bryce! :D



NHL PLAYOFFS (31-43-3, -7.05u) 2010.06.02 results recap:

Chicago Blackhawks @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +240 (3.40) 5Dimes (4-3 OT: LOSS)
Chicago Blackhawks @ Philadelphia Flyers: Over 5.5 -105 (1.95) 5Dimes (4-3 OT: WIN)

NHL 2010.06.02 finished 1-1 and -0.05 units lost/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 197-260-7, -12.54 units lost (457 units risked)

NHL since 2009.11.23: 165-198-7, +6.06 units won (363 units risked)



NHL PLAYOFFS (33-43-3, -4.66u) 2010.06.04 results recap:

Chicago Blackhawks @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers -0.5 +146 (2.46) 5Dimes (5-3: WIN)
Chicago Blackhawks @ Philadelphia Flyers: Over 5.5 -107 (1.93) 5Dimes (5-3: WIN)

NHL 2010.06.04 finished 2-0 and +2.39 units won/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 199-260-7, -10.15 units lost (459 units risked)

NHL since 2009.11.23: 167-198-7, +8.45 units won (365 units risked)



NHL PLAYOFFS (33-43-3, -4.66u) 2010.06.09 final 2 picks:


Chicago Blackhawks @ Philadelphia Flyers

This final is red hot. At least this final will have at least 6 games, instead of the minimum 4 games. This is what everyone likes, as after this big final, the season will be over. And as much equalized this final seems, it will have a better taste for the winner. as at this point, anyone can win. This game 6 will be at Philadelphia, where the Flyers will have to win to tie this series and force a game 7.

In the first 5 games, the home team always won. Besides that, only game 2 had an under, but that was the exception and it wouldn't be strange if that game ended with an over. So, the magical formula seems "bet against the road team, and put also a coin in the over".

Despite the 3-2 result against the Blackhawks, the Flyers are showing a great game and gave great replies at Chicago. Only the first period in the last game the Hawks were clearly able to control the game, and that first period was the key for their last win. After a 3-0 in first period, the Hawks weren't able to win any more period, ending the game 7-4. The offensive power has been impressive in both teams. In this final, the main question is who will score more goals, instead of the normal "who will allow less goals". Even with the same meaning, its a question of mentality that both teams are having. Due to that, this finals are being fantastic, with great games.

At home, the Flyers will have to do what they have done lately. Win the game. Chicago will not make it easy for them, as the Hawks are more focus in win the Stanley Cup as soon as possible to avoid surprises, than in giving that winning game at home, where anything can happen. On the other hand, at this point, the Flyers can't lose any game. Is win or go home, but the team is adapted to that circumstances.

Today, we can expect again many goals. The teams will fight with all their strengths, the season is almost over and the commitment of one player can make the difference. The Flyers are giving a great reply to the Hawks, when they were the dogs and no one expected that they would hold so many games. With the support of their fans, they can face any time in this world, their teamwork is huge.

Picks: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +260 (3.60) 5Dimes, The Greek & Over 5.5 -123 (1.81) 5Dimes


* One unit each always. On Game 5, I played Flyers 3 Way and Over 5.5 and finished the day with a 1-1 split. :P