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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (12/3 - 12/7)

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  • #16
    NFL


    Monday, December 7


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    What bettors need to know: Ravens at Packers
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    Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 43)

    Two teams in the hunt for Wild Card spots clash Monday at Lambeau Field.

    Green Bay (7-4 straight up, 6-4-1 ATS) has won three straight, but hasn’t played since pounding the Lions on Thanksgiving. Baltimore (6-5 SU and ATS) has alternated wins and losses the last six weeks. The Ravens are coming off an overtime win against the Steelers last week.

    Line movement

    Green Bay opened as a 3-point favorite and moved to 3.5-point chalk Friday afternoon. The total was posted at 44 and has been bet down to 43.

    Injury report

    The Packers lost two key parts of their defense recently with season-ending injuries to defensive end Aaron Kampman and cornerback Al Harris. Veteran left tackle Chad Clifton is questionable for this week with a hamstring injury.

    Baltimore has also taken hits to its defense with knee injuries to cornerback Fabian Washington and linebacker Terrell Suggs. Washington may be out for the season, while Suggs missed last week's game and is listed as doubtful for Monday.

    Safety Ed Reed (ankle) did not participate in practice this week and is questionable. Linebacker Ray Lewis continues to battle a foot injury but is expected to play Monday.

    Let it snow

    The Ravens got a sneak peek at the potential conditions for Monday night's game at Lambeau.

    Heavy snow dumped down on the team's training facility in Owings Mills, Md. on Saturday.

    "You learn how to deal with the footing, you learn how to deal with the elements," said Baltimore coach John Harbaugh. "I think that's good. It was good."

    Lambeau has a heating system built underneath the turf and the field often gets soggy in snowy conditions.

    According to Weather.com, the temperature Monday may dip into the low 20s and there is a 60 percent chance of snow.

    Sack the pack

    It's hard to throw a pass when you're sitting on your ass.

    Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers ranks third in the NFL in QB rating (104.9) and fourth in TD passes (22), while throwing only five interceptions. But he's also been sacked 44 times, nine more times than anyone else in the league.

    Rodgers has acknowledged he has to get rid of the ball faster, but a porous offensive line is getting most of the blame.

    "We've got to find a way to protect the guy longer," Packers left guard Daryn College told reporters. "When he's not on his butt, he makes plays. And we need to find a way to keep him standing."

    Return to form

    Baltimore's defense is getting back to its old self.

    Dominant for years, the Ravens defense was ranked 19th in the NFL after the first seven games of this season, including 23rd against the pass. Now, after allowing less than 12 points a game in the last five weeks, Baltimore ranks 10th in overall defense.

    "I think we've been great," said linebacker Ray Lewis. "We're playing smart football. Not just defensively, but as a team overall."

    Kicking it

    After struggling in the kicking game earlier this season, the Ravens appear to have found a solution in Billy Cundiff.

    Cundiff was brought in last month to replace Steve Hauschka, who was cut after missing several important field-goal tries.

    Cundiff booted five field goals in his Ravens debut two weeks ago and nailed the game-winner in overtime against the Steelers last week. Cundiff, who also played five games for the Browns earlier this season, has made 13 of 15 field goal attempts this year.

    Baltimore let long-time kicker Matt Stover go in the offseason.

    Trends

    Green Bay has won four of the past five meetings between the two teams, though the Ravens routed the Pack 48-3 in the most recent meeting in 2005.

    Baltimore is on a 10-4 ATS run on the road, 20-8 on grass and 17-8 overall. The Pack are 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning road record and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games as home faves.

    The over is 13-3-1 in the Ravens' last 17 games as a road dog, 8-2 in Baltimore's last 10 Monday games, 24-11-1 in the Packers' last 36 games overall and 13-6 in the last 19 games at Lambeau.


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    • #17
      NFL
      Dunkel - Mon. POD



      Baltimore at Green Bay
      The Ravens look to build on their 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 games as a road underdog. Baltimore is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Packers favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3).

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      • #18
        NFL


        Monday, December 7


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        Tips and Trends
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        Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers [ESPN | 8:30 PM ET]

        Ravens: Baltimore is 6-5 SU this season, having alternated wins and losses since their bye week in Week 7. The Ravens are 6-5 ATS this year, having lost 3 of their past 4 covers. Baltimore is 3-2 ATS on the road this season. The Ravens are 2-2 ATS this year as an underdog, and today represents the largest underdog point spread this season for the Ravens. QB Joe Flacco has thrown for nearly 2,750 YDS along with 13 TDs against 8 INTs. RB Ray Rice has emerged as one of the best multi dimemsional running backs in the NFL. Rice has 8 consecutive games of at least 100 total yards. Since Week 4, only Chris Johnson has more yards from scrimmage than Rice. Since their bye week, the Ravens have held 5 consecutive opponents to 17 PTS or fewer. This Ravens defense is allowing 17.1 PPG, 4th best in the NFL.

        Ravens are 7-3 ATS last 10 games as a road underdog.
        Over is 13-3-1 last 17 games as a road underdog.

        Key Injuries - LB Terrell Suggs (knee) is doubtful.
        LB Prescott Burgess (hamstring) is questionable.

        PROJECTED SCORE: 24

        Packers (-3.5, O/U 42.5): Green Bay has won 3 straight games to get to 7-4 SU for the season. They are 6-4-1 ATS, and 3-2-1 ATS at home this year. This is the second smallest spread Green Bay has faced this year. The last time they were -3.5 at home, they lost outright by 12 to the Vikings. QB Aaron Rodgers has been especially hot during their current 3 game winning streak. Rodgers has thrown for nearly 900 YDS with 6 TDs and 0 INTs with a 70% completion rate. WRs Donald Driver and Greg Jennings have over 1,500 YDS receiving combined, including 8 TDs. This Packers defense allows an NFL low 282 YPG. The Packers are the only team in the NFL that allows less that 200 YDS passing and 100 YDS rushing on the season. Green Bay also has the advantage of having 3 more days to prepare for this game than the Ravens.

        Packers are 2-5 ATS last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
        Over is 12-4 last 16 games as a home favorite.

        Key Injuries - G T.J. Lang (concussion) is questionable.
        DE Aaron Kampman (knee) is out.

        PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (OVER - Total of the Day)


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