Announcement

**Udog** · 12-01-2009, 10:39 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 13

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Thursday, December 3

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NY JETS (5 - 6) vs. BUFFALO (4 - 7) - 12/3/2009, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 4-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 3-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 6

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DENVER (7 - 4) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 8) - 12/6/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 2-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (3 - 8) at PITTSBURGH (6 - 5) - 12/6/2009, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (5 - 6) at JACKSONVILLE (6 - 5) - 12/6/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-2 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (5 - 6) at INDIANAPOLIS (11 - 0) - 12/6/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (7 - 4) at ATLANTA (6 - 5) - 12/6/2009, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (2 - 9) at CINCINNATI (8 - 3) - 12/6/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
DETROIT is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
DETROIT is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (11 - 0) at WASHINGTON (3 - 8) - 12/6/2009, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (1 - 10) at CAROLINA (4 - 7) - 12/6/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 54-32 ATS (+18.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (1 - 10) at CHICAGO (4 - 7) - 12/6/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 103-136 ATS (-46.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 103-136 ATS (-46.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 47-70 ATS (-30.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 75-106 ATS (-41.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 80-108 ATS (-38.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 27-47 ATS (-24.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (8 - 3) at CLEVELAND (1 - 10) - 12/6/2009, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 6) at SEATTLE (4 - 7) - 12/6/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog this season.
SEATTLE is 45-71 ATS (-33.1 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 17-37 ATS (-23.7 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (10 - 1) at ARIZONA (7 - 4) - 12/6/2009, 8:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (8 - 3) at NY GIANTS (6 - 5) - 12/6/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 31-17 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 31-17 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NY GIANTS are 23-41 ATS (-22.1 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-3 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-3 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (7 - 4) at MIAMI (5 - 6) - 12/6/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 127-97 ATS (+20.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 39-21 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
MIAMI is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 7

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BALTIMORE (6 - 5) at GREEN BAY (7 - 4) - 12/7/2009, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 12-01-2009, 10:40 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 13

Thursday, 12/3/2009

NY JETS at BUFFALO, 8:20 PM ET (played at Rogers Centre in Toronto) | NFL
NY JETS: 83-59 Under off an Under
BUFFALO: 8-20 ATS off DD division win

Sunday, 12/6/2009

DENVER at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
DENVER: 0-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
KANSAS CITY: 8-1 Over as home underdog

OAKLAND at PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM ET
OAKLAND: 19-40 ATS in December
PITTSBURGH: 14-9 ATS off road division loss

HOUSTON at JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM ET
HOUSTON: 27-12 ATS off BB losses
JACKSONVILLE: 2-11 ATS in home games

TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS, 1:00 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 9-0 ATS off 4+ SU wins
INDIANAPOLIS: 8-2 Under at home vs. Tennessee

PHILADELPHIA at ATLANTA, 1:00 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA: 12-4 ATS off division game
ATLANTA: 27-47 ATS off home win

DETROIT at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
DETROIT: 6-0 Over vs. non-conference
CINCINNATI: 6-0 ATS vs. non-conference

NEW ORLEANS at WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 22-8 Over vs. conference
WASHINGTON: 7-13 ATS off SU loss

TAMPA BAY at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 0-6 ATS off BB Unders
CAROLINA: 10-2 ATS after scoring 6 points or less

ST LOUIS at CHICAGO, 1:00 PM ET
ST LOUIS: 6-15 ATS off DD loss
CHICAGO: 7-0 ATS off division loss

SAN DIEGO at CLEVELAND, 4:05 PM ET
SAN DIEGO: 26-4 ATS off 4+ ATS wins
CLEVELAND: 7-1 Under in December

SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE, 4:15 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 3-0 ATS in road games
SEATTLE: 0-6 ATS as an underdog this season

(TC) MINNESOTA at ARIZONA, 8:25 PM ET NBC
MINNESOTA: 6-1 ATS vs. conference
ARIZONA: 13-4 Over off an Under

DALLAS at NY GIANTS, 4:15 PM ET
DALLAS: 6-0 Over after gaining 450+ total yards
NY GIANTS: 0-6 ATS vs. teams with winning record

(TC) NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ENGLAND: n/a
MIAMI: 12-1 Over off road loss

Monday, 12/7/2009

BALTIMORE at GREEN BAY, 8:35 PM ET ESPN
BALTIMORE: 4-0 Over off 2 straight home games
GREEN BAY: 11-3 ATS off cover as DD favorite

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 12-01-2009, 10:45 AM

NFL

Week 13

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 3

8:20 PM
NY JETS vs. BUFFALO
NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Buffalo
NY Jets are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games

Sunday, December 6

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. KANSAS CITY
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Denver
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. CINCINNATI
Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Detroit is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. JACKSONVILLE
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Jacksonville is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. MIAMI
New England is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
New England is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. WASHINGTON
New Orleans is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Washington is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing New Orleans

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. PITTSBURGH
Oakland is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games when playing Oakland

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. ATLANTA
Philadelphia is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. CHICAGO
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Chicago is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. CAROLINA
Tampa Bay is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Carolina
Tampa Bay is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing Carolina
Carolina is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
Tennessee is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

4:05 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. CLEVELAND
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

4:15 PM
DALLAS vs. NY GIANTS
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
NY Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
NY Giants are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games when playing at home against Dallas

4:15 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. SEATTLE
San Francisco is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Seattle is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games

8:25 PM
MINNESOTA vs. ARIZONA
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Arizona is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games at home

Monday, December 7

8:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. GREEN BAY
Baltimore is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Baltimore is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Green Bay is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home

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**Udog** · 12-02-2009, 09:52 PM

NFL

Thursday, December 3

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What bettors need to know: NY Jets at Buffalo Bills
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New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (+3, 37)

The Rogers Centre is the place to be Thursday in Toronto when the Buffalo Bills call the stadium home for a divisional game against the New York Jets.

Both teams snapped three-game losing streaks last week, but remain outside the playoff picture.

Whose line is it anyway?

The line opened at 3-even in favor of the Jets with a total of 37.

Senior oddsmaker with the Las Vegas Sports Consultants, Mike Seba, told *********** on Monday that the location of the game as well as the audience influenced the numbers.

“If they are playing in Buffalo you are going to give [the Bills] 3 or 3.5 points, but here you are going to give them 2 points at the most,” Seba said. “It’s also a different crowd. This is more of a high-dollar crowd; this isn’t your lunch pail Buffalo Bills fan so you are going to discount the home field (advantage) for that.”

Cool your Jets

New York is coming off a gritty 17-6 win over the Panthers and can’t afford any more losses if it wants to stay in the playoff hunt.

The Jets love to pound the rock, leading the league in rushing attempts (389) and ranking second in rushing offense (161.3 ypg). Veteran back Thomas Jones spearheads that ground attack and rumbled for a career-high 210 yards on 22 carries against the Bills in Week 6.

Rex Ryan’s offense is completely one-sided however. Gang Green ranks No. 30 in passing offense, posting a paltry 176.8 ypg.

This disparity is likely a result of the offensive game plan not wanting to put too much pressure on Mark Sanchez. In the Jets’ 16-13 overtime loss to the Bills earlier this year, Sanchez had the worst game of his young career after completing only 10-of-29 passes for 119 yards and five interceptions.

“We played these guys down to the wire and we gave up the ball six times,” said Sanchez. “Without those interceptions you’d think we win the game. That’s the way we need to play – mistake-free.”

Foot the Bills

The first Bills Toronto Series game was held at the Rogers Centre in 2008, and Buffalo lost to the Dolphins, 16-3, as 1-point favorites.

Buffalo essentially needs to win out to have a chance of playing an extended season and if they don’t, 2009 will be 10th straight year the Bills will be absent from the playoffs.

The Bills have the worst rush defense in the NFL, surrendering 165.1 ypg and a total of 16 touchdowns on the ground. The Jets churned up 318 rushing yards against Buffalo in Week 6.

Give me Fewell, give me fire

Since Dick Jauron was fired on Nov. 15, interim head coach Perry Fewell has made some personnel changes.

Fred Jackson has supplanted Marshawn Lynch as Buffalo’s starting tailback. Last week Lynch totaled three carries for six yards while Jackson ran the rock 15 times for 73 yards and a pair of scores.

“I made that decision during the course of the week just watching us practice, watching our tempo,” said Fewell, who hasn’t publicly named Jackson the starter. “Fred has been very productive for us. It was just a gut feeling.”

Another lineup change Fewell implemented was benching quarterback Trent Edwards in favor of journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. In four games as the starter this season, the Harvard grad has led the Bills to a 2-2 record, going 3-1 against the spread.

Fewell provided one of best postgame quotes of the season after beating the Dolphins last Sunday. His remark was in regards to an audible called by Fitzpatrick that resulted in a 51-yard touchdown strike to Terrell Owens.

"I love it," Fewell said. "I told him, 'You have some big gonads.'''

Bucking the trends

The Jets offense tends to freeze in the month of December. The team has gone 0-5 ATS in its last five December games with the total going under in seven of the team’s last eight December contests.

The number 13 has been lucky for the Bills in recent years with the team going 6-1 ATS in their last seven Week 13 games. The total has gone over 10 times in Buffalo’s last 13 Week 13 games.

New York is 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings of this series while the underdog has cashed in 20 of the last 27 games.

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**Udog** · 12-02-2009, 09:59 PM

NFL
Write-Up

First Post

Week 13 NFL games

Thursday, December 3

Jets (5-6) vs Bills (4-7) (@ Toronto)-- Buffalo (+10) upset Jets 16-13 in OT first meeting in Week 6, despite giving up 318 rushing yards (first time that happened since 1944). In two games since they changed head coaches, Bills averaged 8.8/6.5 yards/pass attempt- in Jauron's last seven games, 5.4 was the most they had averaged. Jets lost six of last eight games, allowing 0-6 points in two wins- they're 0-5 when they allow more than 17 points, 2-3 on road, with wins at Houston/Oakland. Bills held five of last seven opponents to 18 points or less. Dogs are 5-3 vs spread in AFC East games this season. Five of last seven Buffalo games stayed under total.

Sunday, December 6

Broncos (7-4) @ Chiefs (3-8)-- McDaniels coached Cassel to 11-5 record last year with Patriots; he should know him well. Denver snapped a 4-game skid beating Giants last week, they're 1-4 when they allow 20+ points. 6-0 when they allow less. Chiefs scored 16 or less points in seven of last ten games. KC upset Steelers in last home game, but it was their first win in five home tries. In five of seven Denver wins, they held opponent to 10 or less points. In last two tilts, Chiefs allowed 8.5/11.4 ypp. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Chief games; nine of eleven Denver games stayed under. Home teams are 2-7 vs spread in AFC West games. Broncos were favored in only three of first 11 games.

Raiders (3-8) @ Steelers (6-5)-- Pitt lost last three games, last two in OT, so they need wins to get in playoff hunt; Roethlisberger expected to be back in starting lineup, but Dixon played OK in first start last week. Steelers are 4-1 at home, 2-3 as home favorite, with wins by 3-4-13-10 points. Raiders are 1-4 in last five games, are 2-3 as road dog, losing away games by 23-37-8-17 points. Oakland averaged under six yards/pass attempt in nine of last ten games. Pitt has 27 sacks in last seven games. AFC West road underdogs are 4-7 vs spread in non-division games; AFC North home favorites are 5-3. Under is 7-3 in last ten Raider games, 4-1 in last five Steeler tilts.

Texans (5-6) @ Jaguars (6-5)-- Houston lost last three games to Colts/Titans, missing tying FGs twice, blowing 17-0 lead in third game; Texans lost 31-24 at home to Jaguars in Week 3 (-3.5), fumbling on goal line when trying to score a tying TD. Jaguars scored 17 or less points in al five losses; eight of Houston's 11 opponent scored 20+. Texans are 3-2 on road, losing 28-21 at Arizona (did tie game after being down 21-0 at half), 20-17 at Indy. Jax is 4-1 at home, with last three home wins all by three points. Houston has 30 penalties for 304 yds in their last three games. Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Houston games. Home teams are 2-6 vs spread in AFC South games.

Titans (5-6) @ Colts (11-0)-- Streaking Titans are 5-0 with Young starting at QB; they lost 31-9 at home to Colts in Week 5 (+4), averaging just 4.3 ypp, never getting inside Indy red zone. Colts outgained them 367-245. The key to beating Colts is maintaining ball, keeping Manning off field; in last six games, Tennessee has run ball for average of 200.2 ypg, with Johnson only third RB ever with six straight games of 125+ yards- Titans converted on 23 of last 46 third down plays, as Young's legs keep chains moving. Colts are 1-4 as home fave, with wins by 2-17-4-1-3 points. Titans held last three opponents to 73.7 rushing yards/game; they're 3-3 vs spread as underdog.

Eagles (7-4) @ Falcons (6-5)-- Michael Vick returns to Georgia Dome with an Eagle squad that is 3-2 on road (wins by 28-10-4, but loss at Oakland), 5-3 as a favorite 3-1 on road. Ryan is out for Atlanta; backup Redman led Falcons to win last week, but that game was only second time this year Atlanta got just one offensive TD in a game. Falcons ran ball for just 90-75 yards in last two games, after averaging 173 in three gsmes before that. Philly lost the turnover battle in three of four losses; they're 6-1 when they're even or positive in TO ratio. Over is 8-3 in Philly games. NFC East road favorites are 5-6 vs spread out of division. NFC South underdogs are 6-10, 1-4 at home.

Lions (2-9) @ Bengals (8-3)-- Hard to lay double digits with Bengals, since in last seven games, they've topped 18 points once; Cincy is 0-5 as favorite this year, winning home games by 3-35-10-9 points. Bengals ran ball for 177-210 yards in last two games, but in last three, they scored one FG on nine drives that started 80+ yards from goal line- they have just two offensive TDs on last 29 drives, but addition of RB Johnson should help. Lions are 0-4-1 as road dog this year, losing away games by 18-24-26-12-17 points, allowing 18 TDs on 45 drives in road games. AFC North home favorites are 5-3 vs spread. NFC North road dogs are 0-6 vs spread in non-division games.

Saints (11-0) @ Redskins (3-8)-- Tough spot for Saints, travelling on a short week after emotional win over Patriots; defensive coordinator Willaims once worked for Redskins, doubt his defense takes this game for granted. Redskins' QB Campbell got knocked silly on the last play last week; not sure if he had concussion. Redskins lost six of last seven games, losing brutal games to Dallas (7-6), Eagles (27-24) the last two weeks- they're 5-2 against spread as dog this year. Saints scored 28+ points in each of their last seven games. Four of last five Washington games went over the total. NFC South favorites are 4-0 vs spread in non-division games. NFC East home underdogs are 0-4.

Buccaneers (1-10) @ Panthers (4-7)-- Tampa scored TDs on defense, special teams in first meeting, still lost 28-21 at home to Carolina in Week 6 (+3.5), as Panthers had 267 rushing yards, outgained Bucs 322-245, despite averaging a mere 3.8 ypp. Delhomme has bum finger, could sit for Feeley here; he threw four INTs in 17-6 loss at Swamp last week. Bucs lost to Atlanta's backup QB last week; they're 3-1 vs spread since their bye, are 3-2 as road dogs, but also allowed 29.6 ppg in last seven games (24 TDs on 84 drives). Six of Carolina's last nine games stayed under total. Road team is 5-2 vs spread in NFC South games this season. Panthers are 1-3 against spread as a favorite this year.

Rams (1-10) @ Bears (4-7)-- St Louis was down three offensive linemen at end of bitter home loss to Seattle (previously winless on road) last week, so hard to back them here, especially since backup QB Boller is mistake-prone in key spots, even though he has better skills than injured starter Bulger. Rams' last two road games were both decided by FG, after they scored total of seven points in losing first three road efforts, by combined score of 72-7. Chicago is 1-6 since its bye, losing last four games by combined score of 111-57- they're 3-1 vs spread as favorite this year, but lost last two home games after winning first three by 3-24-24 points. NFC West road underdogs are 9-4 vs spread.

**Udog** · 12-03-2009, 07:43 AM

NFL
Dunkel

NY Jets at Buffalo
The Bills look to take advantage of a Jets team that is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games as a favorite. Buffalo is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Bills favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 3

Game 301-302: NY Jets at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 129.029; Buffalo 131.573
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 2 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 37
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3); Over

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 6

Game 337-338: Denver at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 127.820; Kansas City 125.987
Dunkel Line: Denver by 2; 41
Vegas Line: Denver by 5; 38
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+5); Over

Game 339-340: Oakland at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 123.187; Pittsburgh 136.697
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 13 1/2; 34
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 14 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+14 1/2); Under

Game 341-342: Houston at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 134.883; Jacksonville 129.844
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5; 51
Vegas Line: Pick; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston; Over

Game 343-344: Tennessee at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 136.723; Indianapolis 140.940
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 4; 42
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 7; 47
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+7); Under

Game 345-346: Philadelphia at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 137.884; Atlanta 130.824
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 7; 42
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 5 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-5 1/2); Under

Game 347-348: Detroit at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 116.885; Cincinnati 136.320
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 19 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 13; 42
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-13); Over

Game 349-350: New Orleans at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 142.560; Washington 131.799
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 11; 50
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-9 1/2); Over

Game 351-352: Tampa Bay at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 126.674; Carolina 132.349
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 5 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Carolina by 6 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+6 1/2); Under

Game 353-354: St. Louis at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 122.252; Chicago 128.010
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 6; 46
Vegas Line: Chicago by 9 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+9 1/2); Over

Game 355-356: San Diego at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 136.005; Cleveland 121.884
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 14; 45
Vegas Line: San Diego by 13; 43
Dunkel Pick San Diego (-13); Over

Game 357-358: San Francisco at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 131.079; Seattle 126.405
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 4 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Seattle by 1; 41
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+1); Under

Game 359-360: Minnesota at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 141.972; Arizona 138.628
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 3 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+4 1/2); Over

Game 361-362: Dallas at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 134.441; NY Giants 135.456
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 42
Vegas Line: Dallas by 2 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2 1/2); Under

MONDAY, DECEMBER 7

Game365-366: Baltimore at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.316; Green Bay 136.987
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 1 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Under

**pm530** · 12-03-2009, 01:21 PM

NFL

Thursday, December 3

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Tips and Trends
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New York Jets at Buffalo Bills [8:20 PM ET]

Jets (-3, O/U 37): Despite winning last week, the Jets aren't playing good football. The Jets are only 2-6 SU and ATS over their past 8 games. Away from home, the Jets are 2-3 ATS this season. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez has only thrown for more than 200 YDS in 3 of his 11 starts this season. Away from home, Sanchez has twice as many INTs than TDs with a QB rating under 60. Luckily, this offense is ground dominated. The Jets lead the entire NFL in rushing attempts, and are 2nd in the NFL in rushing average with 161 YPG. This Jets defense is only allowing 17.7 PPG, which ranks them 6th in the NFL. The Jets have the 2nd best passing defense in the NFL, thanks in large part to CB Darrelle Revis. Revis will be assigned Terrell Owens, who he held to 3 receptions for 13 yards earlier this season.

Jets are 3-9 ATS last 12 games as a favorite.
Under is 7-1 last 8 games in December.

Key Injuries - QB Mark Sanchez (knee) is probable.
CB Donald Strickland (concussion) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Bills: Buffalo is coming off their best game of the season, a 31-14 win against the Dolphins. Buffalo is 4-2 ATS away from home this season. The Bills have been underdogs in 9 of their 11 games this season, winning 5 of those ATS. Buffalo has shaken up their offense a bit, going with new QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and RB Fred Jackson. Fitzpatrick has led the Bills to a 2-2 SU record, including 3-1 ATS. Defensively, the Bills have the worst rush defense in the NFL, allowing more than 165 rushing YPG. They've also allowed 16 rushing touchdowns this season. The Bills have already beaten the Jets this year, despite allowing 318 yards rushing in that game. It's unlikely the Bills will get 6 INTs tonight, so they will need to improve on their league worst rush defense.

Bills are 1-6 ATS last 7 games following a SU win.
Under is 6-0 last 6 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - CB Terrence McGee (knee) is questionable.
DT John McCargo (calf) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20 (Side of the Day)

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**Udog** · 12-04-2009, 09:40 AM

NFL

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 13
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Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (+5.5)

Why Eagles cover: They're 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Atlanta will probably be without leading rusher Michael Turner who re-injured his ankle last week. Chris Redman will start at quarterback in place of injured Matt Ryan.

Why Falcons cover: Philly is likely without leading receiver DeSean Jackson who suffered a head injury last week. Eagles are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Atlanta. Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Total (44): Under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings and 4-0 in the last four in Atlanta.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-6.5)

Why Buccaneers cover: Rookie QB Josh Freeman has been impressive in his first four starts. Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Both Carolina running backs, DeAngelo Williams (ankle) and Jonathan Stewart (Achilles' tendon) are battling injuries.

Why Panthers cover: They've won five of the past seven meetings. Matt Moore will start in place of Jake Delhomme (18 INTs), who’s been terrible. Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Buccaneers are 5-12 ATS in the last 17 vs. Carolina.

Total (37): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Carolina.

St. Louis Rams at Chicago Bears (-9)

Why Rams cover: They've won four of the past six meetings. Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Steven Jackson (1378 total yards) continues to have an amazing season despite inconsistent quarterback play. Bears are dealing with multiple injuries to their defensive line.

Why Bears cover: Rams are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings. Struggling Jay Cutler plays much better at home than on the road. QB Kyle Boller (66.6 rating) has been shaky in place of Marc Bulger.

Total (41): Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals (-13)

Why Lions cover: Bengals are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. With a two-game lead in the AFC North, Cincinnati could be looking past Detroit to its game against Minnesota in Week 14.

Why Bengals cover: They've won six of the last seven meetings. Larry Johnson looked great last week and they will get Cedric Benson back as well. Lions are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Bengals allow a league-low 15.8 points per game.

Total (42): Under is 12-4-1 in Bengals' last 17 home games and 5-2 in their last seven games overall.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)

Why Titans cover: They're 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings and 5-0 SU and ATS since Vince Young has taken over as the starting quarterback. Colts are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five home games. Can keep slim playoff hopes alive with a victory.

Why Colts cover: They're 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games and they held RB Chris Johnson to 34 yards rushing in Week 4. Peyton Manning threw for 309 yards and three TDs against a weak Titans pass defense in the last meeting.

Total (47): Under is 8-1 in the last nine meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Indianapolis.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1)

Why Texans cover: They're 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five in Jacksonville. Underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Need a win to keep slim playoff hopes alive. Matt Schaub has a 105.3 passer rating in three career games against Jacksonville.

Why Jaguars cover: They've won three of the last five meetings. Maurice Jones-Drew torched Houston for 147 total yards and three touchdowns in a 31-24 Week 3 victory as 4-point underdogs.

Total (46.5): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5)

Why Broncos cover: Chiefs are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 home games. Kyle Orton shook off his ankle injury to post 245 passing yards against the Giants last week. The Chiefs are allowing 258 passing yards per game.

Why Chiefs cover: Home team is 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Broncos are1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Kansas City. Jamaal Charles has been outstanding in place of departed Larry Johnson. Team will get an emotional lift as deceased Hall of Fame linebacker has his number retires before the game.

Total (38): Over is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings and 7-1 in the last eight games in Kansas City.

Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14)

Why Raiders cover: Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Steelers are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Bruce Gradkowski has thrown for three touchdowns and one interception in two games since talking over for JaMarcus Russell as the team's starting quarterback.

Why Steelers cover: They've won five of the last seven meetings. They're 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. Will likely get Ben Roethlisberger back from head injury. Oakland struggles to stop the run and Pittsburgh likes to pound the ball.

Total (37): Under is 4-1 in Raiders' last five road games and 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.

New Orleans Saints at Washington Redskins (+9.5)

Why Saints cover: They're 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games. Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Redskins are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games. They have six players with 20 or more receptions making them very hard to defend and giving Drew Brees plenty of options.

Why Redskins cover: They've won four of the past six meetings. Could be a letdown game for the Saints after they dismantled the Patriots on Monday Night Football. Jason Campbell lit up New Orleans for 321 yards and TD in the last meeting.

Total (47): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns (+12.5)

Why Chargers cover: They've won six of the last seven meetings. They're 4-0 ATS in their last four games. Browns are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine home games. Browns will be without Jamal Lewis who was lost for the season last week.

Why Browns cover: Inclement weather could benefit the Browns who like to run the ball and employ a short yardage passing attack. Brady Quinn is playing smarter football in his second chance this season. In his first three starts he had one touchdown and five turnovers; in his last three, he has thrown four TDs with two interceptions.

Total (43): Under is 5-2 in Browns' last seven home games and 4-1 in their last five games overall.

Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (+4.5)

Why Vikings cover: They're 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. They're 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall. QB Brett Favre is averaging 290 yards passing per game in his last nine and has 21 touchdowns and only three interceptions in those games.

Why Cardinals cover: They're 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Could get Kurt Warner back from his concussion. The Cardinals have really turned their running game around. The club is averaging over 131 per game over their last six contests.

Total (48): Under is 4-1 in Vikings' last five games.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-1)

Why Cowboys cover: Giants are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games and 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall. Eli Manning is battling a foot injury that has affected his performance. New York's linebackers are banged up.

Why Giants cover: Cowboys are 3-7-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings and 1-3-1 ATS. Since becoming the Cowboys' starting quarterback, Tony Romo has struggled in December going 5-8.

Total (45): Over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings and 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in New York.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-1)

Why 49ers cover: They're 3-0-2 ATS in their last five road games and 7-2-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They blew out the Seahawks by 13-points in Week 2 as 1-point faves. Frank Gore torched Seattle for 207 yards rushing and two scores in that game.

Why Seahawks cover: They're 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight home games. They will get Julius Jones back to compliment Justin Forsett in the running game.

Total (41): Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+5)

Why Patriots cover: They've won four of the past five meetings. They're 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 road games. Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. QB Chad Henne hasn't proved he can shoulder the load if Miami has to try and keep up via the passing game.

Why Dolphins cover: They're 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. AFC East. Need a victory to stay in the AFC East race. Covered as 10.5-point underdogs at New England in Week 8 by rushing for 133 yards. Laurence Maroney has sparked the Pats ground game with eight TDs in his last six games.

Total (46): Over is 5-0 in Dolphins' last five home games.

Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (-3)

Why Ravens cover: They're 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. After a slow start Baltimore's defense is back to normal holding opponents to 11.6 points per game over its last six. RB Ray Rice has at least 100 yards from scrimmage in eight straight games.

Why Packers cover: Ravens are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. QB Aaron Rodgers has been on fire over his last three games throwing for 881 yards and six touchdowns. Ravens QB Joe Flacco, on the other hand, is struggling. He’s thrown three interceptions and taken 11 sacks in his last five games with only one touchdown.

Total (44): Under is 4-1 in Ravens' last five games.

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**Udog** · 12-04-2009, 09:46 AM

NFL

Week 13

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NFL total bias: Take the over in the winter wonderlands
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Need a little extra holiday coin? No worries, I made up a jingle to help you remember how to make the smart play this December.

Oh, the weather outside is frightful,

But my bankroll is so delightful,

And since I love making dough,

Bet the over, bet the over, bet the over.

I should copyright that, it’s so good.

Just take a look at the trends of some teams playing in cold weather. Over the past three seasons, I took a look at home games for New England, Buffalo, Green Bay and Denver. Those places get so cold around the holidays, fans get drunk at tailgates so they don’t have to feel the sub-freezing temperatures, not just to get a buzz. And never rule out snow, rain, wind or lots of mud.

Think those factors don’t matter? They do, just not the way you think. They don’t slow down offenses, think of them more as lubricant.

Since the start of the 2006 season, those four teams have combined to post an over/under record of 17-10. And New England and Green Bay both tout high-octane passing games, proving that offenses don’t suffer as much as you think in harsh climates.

But even our friends from the Sunshine State feel the extra rush of lower temperatures and higher scores this month. Just as I looked at four teams from places Eskimos would detest, I also checked out how Tampa Bay, Oakland, San Francisco and Miami faired against the total over the same span. No one will argue that those teams have the same caliber offense as the four from the chillier climates, but it doesn’t seem to matter.

Over the same three-season span, those teams posted a combined over/under record of 14-12-1 in the month of December.

It’s a holiday recipe for success that will smash anything your creepy Uncle Bob uses in his egg nog that makes you think your cousin is hot.

Start with a dash of December and cold weather, sprinkle in a team that has had success against the total this season and plays in a harsh climate and - voila! I give you a fat bankroll just in time for the holidays.

So let’s take a look at the forecast for this weekend, sprinkle in a dash of trends and nail some winners.

Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (-3, 43.5)

Typically, I try to avoid the Monday night pick but not with a venue like Lambeau Field staring me in the face for a crisp night game in Wisconsin. The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 30s to mid 20s with a brisk 9-mph wind.

The Packers also are 6-5 over/under this season, while the Ravens have a road over/under record of 3-3 but appeared to break out of an offensive slump last week when they hung 20 on a tough Steelers defense.

Green Bay’s defense is solid, but depleted and the Ravens have hit the over in eight of their past 10 Monday night clashes. Look for an icy over.

Pick: Over

Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5, 37)

The only thing uglier than a Pittsburgh fan is the weather in the industrial town. I’m kidding…kind of. The weather’s not that bad.

Sunday’s forecast for an early kickoff calls for temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s with a brisk wind. It should be a bitter-cold day perfect for a Steelers secondary to feast on Raiders quarterback Bruce Gradkowski. Plus, Pittsburgh should see quarterback Ben Roethlisberger back under center.

Oh yeah, and Coach Mike Tomlin basically said they were going to run up the score after they lost to Baltimore last week: "We're going to unleash hell here in December."

Good luck, Oakland.

Pick: Over

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+3, 44)

Let me set the stage for you: A brisk day in South Florida in the mid-60s with rain and a 15-mph wind.

Sounds like the table is set for plenty of points.

The Patriots are coming off a disappointing thrashing at the hands of the Saints and the Dolphins are fresh from a drubbing by the Bills. Both teams need to win and need to score to win. The rain and wind will do little to stifle the Patriots Tom Brady or the Dolphins dynamic running game.

Three of the past five meetings between the teams have hit the over and after Sunday, make it one more in the bank.

Pick: Over

Last Week: 0-3
Overall: 13-23

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**Udog** · 12-04-2009, 01:41 PM

NFL
Write-Up

All Remaining Games

Week 13 NFL games

Sunday, December 6

Chargers (8-3) @ Browns (1-10)-- Cleveland is 0-4 at home, losing by 14-3-28-16 points, losing last two by combined score of 47-3. Browns scored three TDs on 45 drives at home; they're so bad, playing four of last five at home is not going to help. Chargers won last six games, covering last four; they're 4-1 on road, losing at Pittsburgh, winning by 4-30-1-29 points. San Diego covered four of last five games as favorite-- they have seven takeaways in last two games, going +3 in turnovers in both games. AFC West favorites are 3-2 in non-division games; AFC North underdogs are 5-6, 0-3 at home. Four of last five Cleveland games stayed under total.

49ers (5-6) @ Seahawks (4-7)-- Seattle lost 23-10 at Candlestick in Week 2,; it was 13-10 just before half when Hasselbeck got hurt, leaving game for good. Only teams Seahawks have beaten are Rams (twice), Lions, Jaguars- they are 3-2 at home, losing to Bears/Cardinals. 49ers are 4-0-1 vs spread on road, but lost last four SU, by 3-3-4-6 points. Niners allowed 16 or less points in all of their wins, holding four of five victims to 10 or less- they allowed 18+ in their losses. Seattle scored 20+ points in three of last four games; this is their first home game in four weeks. Home teams are 5-3 vs spread in NFC West games. Four of last five Seattle games went over the total.

Vikings (10-1) @ Cardinals (7-4)-- Minnesota won last four games (4-0-1 vs spread); they're 4-1 on road. Warner's status (concussion) is unknown; Cards scored 17 points in six quarters since he left at half two weeks ago. Arizona is 2-3 at home; they're 6-0 when they score 21+ points, 1-4 if they don't- they've allowed average of 150 rushing yards/game in last three weeks, bad news vs balanced Minnesota offense that ran ball for 157 yards/game in three games since its bye. NFC West teams are 6-8 vs spread in non-divsional home games; NFC North teams are 5-7, with favorite 11-1 vs spread in those games. .Four of last five Viking games stayed under the total.

Cowboys (8-3) @ Giants (6-5)-- Two teams going in different directions, with Dallas winning six of last seven games, Giants losing five of last six. Cowboys held last five opponents to 17 or less points, and haven't allowed first half TD in last four contests. Big Blue (+3) won 33-31 at Dallas back in Week 2, even though Cowboys outrushed them 251-97 in home opener in the new stadium. Giants miss MLB Pierce; they've allowed average of 31.7 ppg during 1-5 skid, giving up 24 TDs on last 67 drives, while forcing only nine FG tries. Visitors are 7-1 vs spread in NFC East games this season. Last four Dallas games went under the total. Pretty much an elimination game for the Giants.

Patriots (7-4) @ Dolphins (5-6)-- Short week for Pats, road game after loss on Monday night in Superdome; they are 0-4 in true road games this year, with a neutral site win over Bucs their only win away from Foxboro. Patriots won at home 27-17 over Miami in Week 9; Brady was 25-37/323 passing, in a game where Pats scored one TD, three FGs in Miami red zone. Dolphins are 3-2 at home, losing to the two unbeaten teams; they've outsacked foes 13-1 in their last three games, but playoff hopes took big hit with damaging loss in Buffalo last week. Dolphins' last four home games all went over total. Underdogs are 7-1 vs spread in AFC East games this season.

Monday, December 7

Ravens (6-5) @ Packers (7-4)-- December night game in Lambeau; Packers are 5-2 since bye, winning last three games by 10-6-22 points. Green Bay defense held seven of last eight opponents to 81 or less rushing yards. Baltimore is 0-5 when it runs ball for less than 125 yards. Ravens lost three of last four road games, with lone win at 1-10 Cleveland. After scoring 30+ points in five of its first seven games, Baltimore scored 14.5 ppg in last four, scoring four TDs on its last 43 drives. Rodgers has been sacked 44 times this year, but Ravens are sackless in last two games. NFC North home favorites are 2-7 vs spread in non-division games. AFC North clubs are 5-3 vs number.

**Udog** · 12-05-2009, 09:20 PM

NFL

Sunday, December 6

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What bettors need to know: Vikings at Cardinals
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Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (+3.5, 48.5)

Last year's NFC champion meets the favorite for this year's NFC title when the Cardinals host the Vikings Sunday night.

Minnesota (10-1 straight up, 7-3-1 ATS) holds a three-game lead over Green Bay in the NFC North. Arizona (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) isn't quite as comfortable in the NFC West, leading the 49ers by two games.

Line movement

Oddsmakers took their time posting a line for Sunday night's game after Cardinals pivot Kurt Warner (head) was forced to sit out last week’s game against Tennessee. The line finally opened Wednesday, with the Vikings as 4-point favorites. Minnesota was bet up to 4.5 before a big line move Friday dropped the spread to a field goal. The total was sent out at 48 and hasn't moved much throughout the week.

Injury report

The status of Warner was the big question mark this week, but he is listed as probable for Sunday night. Cardinals running back Tim Hightower, who is averaging 4.3 yards per carry and has six touchdowns, is questionable with a thumb injury. Arizona tackle Mike Gandy is nursing an injured pelvis and kicker Neil Rackers' participation in practice this week was limited by a groin injury.

The Vikings will likely once again be without cornerback Antoine Winfield, who has missed Minnesota's last five games due to a toe injury. Tight end Visanthe Shiancoe is also questionable (ribs).

History lesson

Minnesota crushed the Cardinals 35-14 last year in Glendale. Tarvaris Jackson threw four touchdown passes and the Vikings built a 28-0 lead by halftime. Adrian Peterson added 165 yards on the ground for Minny, which was a 4-point underdog.

The Vikings have covered six of the last eight games between the two squads.

No home sweet home

The Cardinals are known for playing much better at home than on the road, but they are the direct opposite this season. Five of Arizona's seven wins have come away from University of Phoenix Stadium, and the Cards have covered only two of five home games.

In its last contest at home, a 31-20 win over the Seahawks in Week 10, Arizona dug itself an early 14-0 hole before rallying.

"I certainly don't think it's our preparation or how we have been working in practice," coach Ken Whisenhunt told the Arizona Republic. "I think it's more about making mistakes at the wrong time."

The Vikings are 4-1 straight up and ATS on the road.

Role reversal

Both teams have drastically improved their weakest unit from a season ago.

Minnesota averaged 23.7 points per game on offense last season, but the addition of Brett Favre has helped the Vikings bump that average up by more than a touchdown. Minnesota ranks second in the NFL with 31.1 points per game.

The Cardinals somehow made it to the Super Bowl last year with a defense that allowed 26.6 points a game. This season, Arizona has shaved that average down to 19.7 points per contest.

Trends

The Cardinals have flourished in the underdog role, beating the spread seven of the last eight times they were catching points. Arizona is also 6-1 ATS versus teams with winning records and 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home dog.

Minnesota is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six against the NFC, 5-1 ATS in its last six on the road and 4-1-1 ATS last six as favorite. However, the Vikings are also 2-6 ATS in their last six against a team with a winning record and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in December.

The over has cashed at a 19-7 rate in the Cards' last 26 home games and 22-9 in Arizona's last 31 games on grass. Minnesota has gone 9-4-1 to the over in its last 14 road games and 4-1 in its last five games on grass. The under has gone 28-12-1 in the Vikes' last 41 games coming off a win against the spread.

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**Udog** · 12-06-2009, 09:37 AM

NFL
Dunkel - Sun. POD

Tennessee at Indianapolis
The Titans look to build on their 10-1 ATS record in their last 11 games as an underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Tennessee is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Colts favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+7).

**Udog** · 12-06-2009, 09:42 AM

NFL

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Gone with the wind: Week 13 NFL weather report
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Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-15, 37)

Big Ben will be back under center, but the Steelers could be going old school with their gameplan. The Raiders are awful against the run and with temperatures not expected to exceed 35 degrees, compounded by a steady wind, Pittsburgh could look to rely heavily on its ground attack. Heinz Field usually begins to look like a playground during the December month and with the Pitt Panthers having played on the field yesterday groundskeepers won’t have time to repair the damage. These two teams have met eight times in the last 20 years with the total never exceeding 43. The under has cashed five times during that eight-game span.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (+6, 38.5)

The Chiefs offense isn’t going to get any help from Mother Nature with less than ideal playing conditions projected for Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. The forecast calls for a 40 percent chance of rain/snow and wind from the southeast (endzone to endzone) at 8-10 mph. Kickoff temperature will be a brisk 37 degrees. The under is 7-1 in the Broncos last eight games against AFC opponents.

Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 43)

Packers players must be sure to secure their footing before making a Lambeau Leap on Monday night. Weather.com provides a 60 percent chance of precipitation during the game that includes snow showers. The high for the day won’t even approach freezing with the kickoff temperature expected to be around 27 degrees (wind chill 18 degrees). A northerly wind (endzone to endzone) of 9-11 mph will be affecting throws from both quarterbacks.

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**Udog** · 12-06-2009, 11:02 AM

NFL

Sunday, December 6

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Tips and Trends
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Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts [CBS | 1:00 PM ET]

Titans: What a difference a bye week makes! The Titans are a perfect 5-0 both SU and ATS since their bye week in Week 7. After starting the year 0-6 SU, the Titans can get back to .500 with a win today. QB Vince Young has been remarkable since taking over the starting QB position. The Titans are averaging 29 PPG with Young at QB, 15 PPG higher than with Kerry Collins. RB Chris Johnson has an NFL high 1,394 yards rushing this season. Johnson has rushed for more than 125 YDS in 6 consecutive games, tying the NFL record. Johnson is a gamebreaker, as he has 3 TDs of at least 85 YDS this season. In this 5 game winning streak, only 1 team has scored more than 17 PTS against the Titans. The Titans were 3 point underdogs when they played the Colts in Week 5, a 31-9 beating.

Titans are 10-1 ATS last 11 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.
Under is 6-0 in Titans last 6 games after having more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Key Injuries - DT Jason Jones (shoulder) is questionable.
WR Justin Gage (back) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 23 (Side of the Day)

Colts (-6.5, O/U 46): The run for perfection continues, as the Colts are now 11-0. Indianapolis is only 1-3-1 ATS at home this season. Their lone ATS cover at home was against Seattle in Week 4. With a win today, the Colts will tie the NFL record with 21 consecutive regular season wins. QB Peyton Manning is having another MVP caliber season. Manning has thrown an NFL high 3,400 YDS with a 70% completion rate. He's also thrown for 24 TDs against 11 INTs. Manning is averaging 310 passing YPG, impressive considering the Colts have won 13 consecutive games when he throws for more than 300 YDS. This Colts defense is only allowing 16.7 PPG, 3rd best in the NFL. With injuries however, this defense has allowed 25 PPG over their past 3 contests.

Colts are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 5-1 last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.

Key Injuries - K Adam Vinatieri (knee) is questionable.
DB Kelvin Hayden (leg) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals [NBC | 8:20 PM ET]

Vikings (-3, O/U 48.5): The Vikings are 10-1 SU this season, and are widely considered one of the 3 best teams in the NFL. The Vikings are 4-1 ATS on the road this season. Minnesota is 3-0 ATS when they've been a road favorite this year. QB Brett Favre is having arguably the best season of his Hall of Fame career. Favre has thrown over 2,850 YDS with 24 TDs and only 3 INTs. Over the past 4 games, Favre has 12 TDs without an interception. WR Sidney Rice has enjoyed catching Favre, as he has 56 REC for nearly 1,000 receiving YDS. Rice and rookie WR Percy Harvin have combined for 9 TDs on the season. Let's not forget RB Adrian Peterson, with over 1,300 total YDS and 12 TDs. The Vikings defense has held their past 3 opponents to 10 PTS or less. Minnesota also has the 2nd ranked rushing defense in the NFL, holding opponents to only 81 rushing YPG.

Vikings are 5-1 ATS last 6 road games.
Under is 15-3 last 18 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

Key Injuries - CB Antoine Winfield (toe) is questionable.
G Anthony Herrera (concussion) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (OVER - Total of the Day)

Cardinals: Arizona is 1st in the NFC West at 7-4 SU. The Cardinals are 6-5 ATS, including 2-3 ATS at home. The Cardinals have been on the road their past 2 games. The last time Arizona played consecutive road games, they lost at home to the Panthers. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season, and today marks the 1st time they've been a home underdog. QB Kurt Warner leads an offense that averages 24 PPG for the season. Warner (2,700 passing YDS with 20 TDs and 11 INTs) missed last weeks contest, so he will be watched closely. WR Larry Fitzgerald has 9 TD catches, which is tied for the most in the league. Fitzgerald also has 75 receptions, 3rd most in the NFL. The Cardinals rush defense has faced the top 2 running backs over the past 2 weeks in Steven Jackson and Chris Johnson. Today they face the 3rd ranked running back in Adrian Peterson.

Cardinals are 7-1 ATS last 8 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games as a home underdog.

Key Injuries - QB Kurt Warner (head) is probable.
RB Tim Hightower (thumb) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (12/3 - 12/7)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (12/3 - 12/7)

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