NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (11/26 - 11/30)

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel - Sun. POD


Miami at Buffalo
The Dolphins look to build on their 9-3 ATS record in their last 12 road games. Miami is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Dolphins favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-3).

[Udog]

NFL


Sunday, November 29

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Tips and Trends
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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans [CBS | 1:00 PM ET]

Colts (-3.5, O/U 47.5): The Colts are undefeated this year, and a big reason why is their road play. They are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS this year away from home. Indy needs to be careful though, as they've scored 20 PTS or fewer in 3 of their past 4 games. That's led to the Colts losing 3 of their last 4 games ATS. QB Peyton Manning directs the NFL's best passing offense, averaging over 310 YPG through the air. The Colts also are giving up an NFL low of 15.7 PPG. Indy has held 7 of their past 8 opponents under 20 PTS.

Colts are 4-0 ATS last 4 games as a road favorite.
Under is 4-0 last 4 vs. AFC South.

Key Injuries - DB Antoine Bethea (foot) is questionable.
DB Kelvin Hayden (leg) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 23

Texans: Houston is going to have to play better at home to make the playoffs. Houston is 2-3 SU, with only 1 win ATS at home. QB Matt Schaub has thrown for nearly 3,000 YDS, including 19 TDs. Houston has one of the 3 worst rushing offenses in the NFL, so Schaub will continue to be active. Rookie LB Brian Cushing leads both the Texans and all NFL rookies with 88 tackles. Cushing will likely be active in the secondary, as the Colts move the ball through the air early and often.

Texans are 7-1 ATS last 8 games as a home underdog.
Under is 6-1 last 7 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - CB Antwaun Molden (quad) is questionable.
LB DeMeco Ryans (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (Side of the Day)



Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings [FOX | 4:15 PM ET]

Bears: Chicago has lost 5 of their past 6 games SU. The acquisition of Jay Cutler isn't working out the way the Bears had imagined. The Bears are 1-4 both SU and ATS on the road this year. QB Jay Cutler has 15 of his 18 INTs on the road this season. Cutler needs to improve his decision making in order for the Bears to have a chance to win on the road. The Bears are giving up more than 155 rushing YPG. The Bears need to avoid turnovers today, and must limit Adrian Peterson from breaking the big play. The Bears have allowed 3 QB's this season to have QB ratings greater than 100 of late. Brett Favre has a QB rating of 112 for this entire season.

Bears are 0-6-1 ATS last 7 games as a road underdog.
Under is 7-1 last 8 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - G Roberto Garza (ankle) is questionable.
S Kevin Payne (back) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 13

Vikings (-11, O/U 47): QB Brett Favre is playing like the NFL MVP. Favre has led his team to a perfect 5-0 record at home, and 9-1 SU overall for the season. Minnesota has scored at least 27 PTS in every home game this season. RB Adrian Peterson has 999 YDS rushing, averaging nearly 5 YPC. Defensively, Minnesota has the 3rd best rush defense in the NFL, allowing less than 86 rushing YPG. The Vikings are giving up only 10 PPG in games where they were favored by double digits.

Vikings are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 vs. NFC.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or more.

Key Injuries - CB Antoine Winfield (toe) is questionable.
DT Frederick Evans (flu) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (UNDER - Total of the Day)


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[Udog]

NFL


Monday, November 30

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What bettors need to know: Patriots at Saints
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New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints (-1.5, 56.5)

The last team to have an undefeated regular season looks to end the Saints' attempt at perfection Monday night in the Big Easy.

Tom Brady and the 7-3 Patriots roll into the Superdome for a clash with Drew Brees and the 10-0 Saints. The game features the top two offenses in the NFL, with both units averaging more than 400 yards per game.

Line movement

The Saints opened as 3-point favorites, but heavy action on the Patriots forced some books to move New Orleans to as low as 1-point chalk. The posted total of 55.5 has moved to 56.5, with the majority of bets coming in on the over.

Injury report

New Orleans has been banged up a bit in recent weeks, but hopes to have three significant starters back in the lineup this week. Running back Reggie Bush (knee), cornerback Jabari Greer (groin) and defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis (knee) are all listed as probable on the team's injury report.

The Pats aren't expected to be missing any of their star players Monday, though a number of players were limited in practice drills this week. Tackle Matt Light, cornerback Shawn Springs and running back Sammy Morris are all listed as questionable.

Saints keep marching in

The Saints continue to light up the scoreboard, leading the league with an average of 36.4 points per game. New Orleans has not been held to less than 24 points in its first 10 games, eclipsing the 40-point plateau four times.

Oddsmakers have caught on, however. Despite putting up 30, 28 and 38 points the past three weeks, New Orleans has gone under in two of those games. The lone over in that span came by half a point, a 28-23 victory over the Rams two weeks ago.

The Saints are also 1-3 against the spread in their last four contests.

Brady's back

Early in the season, there were questions about how long it would take Pats QB Tom Brady to shake off the rust after missing nearly all last season with a knee injury. No one's asking those questions anymore.

After throwing for 300 yards only once in his first five games, the Michigan alum has tossed for 300-plus yards in each of his past five contests, with 14 touchdown passes and just four interceptions.

“I think we’re obviously playing a lot better football as a unit,” Brady said. “My job is pretty simple when they block the way they block and Randy (Moss) and Wes (Welker) are out there doing their thing.”

In the spotlight

Playing in front of a national audience is nothing new for the Patriots. Including playoffs, New England has been on national TV 20 times in the past four seasons. The Patriots have won 11 of those contests, going 11-8-1 ATS and 10-8-2 over/under.

New Orleans has been in the national spotlight only 12 times in that span, going 7-5 straight up and 5-6-1 ATS. Nine of those 12 games went over the total.

No lead is safe

Halftime leads haven't always been safe for the Patriots this season. In all three of its losses, New England held a halftime advantage before being outscored by a combined 47-10 score in defeats at the Colts, Jets and Broncos.

That could spell doom against the Saints, who have overcome sizable halftime deficits in two of their wins. New Orleans rallied from a 24-10 hole to beat the Dolphins 46-34 in Week 7, and outscored the Panthers 24-3 in the second half of a 30-20 victory in Week 9.

Trends

New Orleans is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as a favourite, and 12-4-1 in its last 17 overall. The Patriots are 37-17-2 ATS in their last 56 games on the road.

The over is 4-0 in the Saints'last four Monday games, 14-3-1 in their last 18 home games and 16-4-1 in their last 21 games on field turf. The Patriots have seen the over go 8-2-1 in their last 11 games on field turf and 12-5 in their last 17 games as an underdog.


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[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel - Mon. POD


New England at New Orleans
The Saints look to build on their 12-3 ATS record in their last 15 games as a favorite. New Orleans is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Saints favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-1 1/2).

[Udog]

NFL


Monday, November 30

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Tips and Trends
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New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints [ESPN | 8:30 PM ET]

Patriots: New England has struggled on the road this year. They're only 1-3 SU, with only 1 win ATS away from home. While they've struggled away from home, New England is playing their best football of the season right now. New England has scored 30 PTS or more in 4 of the past 5 games, while holding teams under 20 PTS during that same stretch. QB Tom Brady has more than 300 YDS passing in 5 straight games, including 14 TD's. WR Wes Welker leads the NFL with 79 receptions, while being the only NFL receiver averaging more than 100 YPG. His closest pursuer is his team, WR Randy Moss.

Patriots are 4-1 ATS last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Over is 11-5 last 16 games as a road underdog.

Key injuries - T Matt Light (knee) is questionable.
CB Shawn Springs (knee) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 31

Saints (-1.5, O/U 56.5): New Orleans puts their perfect regular season at risk against the last team to go undefeated in the regular season. The Saints feature the #1 ranked offense in the NFL, at 37 PPG. The Saints are 3-2 ATS in their 5 home games this season, losing the last 2 as double digit favorites. New Orleans has been favored in every game they've played this year. QB Drew Brees is having an MVP caliber season (2,750 YDS passing; 24 TDs) and is the leader of this team. Despite their perfect season thus far, the Saints have lost 3 of their last 4 games ATS.

Saints are 12-3 ATS last 15 games as a favorite.
Over is 6-0 last 6 games as a home favorite up to 3 points.

Key Injuries - CB Randall Gay (hamstring) is questionable.
RB Reggie Bush (knee) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 34 (OVER - Total of the Day)


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