NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (11/26 - 11/30)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Thursday, November 26 – Monday, November 30

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

College Football trends are in the section: “NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (11/10 – 11/15)”
>> Click on the first “Matchup Link” below. <<

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Matchup Links

NCAAF Trends and Indexes – Week 13

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[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet


Week 12

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Thursday, November 26

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GREEN BAY (6 - 4) at DETROIT (2 - 8) - 11/26/2009, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 29-47 ATS (-22.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 5-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (3 - 7) at DALLAS (7 - 3) - 11/26/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (6 - 4) at DENVER (6 - 4) - 11/26/2009, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 26-44 ATS (-22.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
DENVER is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, November 29

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INDIANAPOLIS (10 - 0) at HOUSTON (5 - 5) - 11/29/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 5-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (1 - 9) at CINCINNATI (7 - 3) - 11/29/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 52-75 ATS (-30.5 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (4 - 6) at MINNESOTA (9 - 1) - 11/29/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (3 - 7) at PHILADELPHIA (6 - 4) - 11/29/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 50-72 ATS (-29.2 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 133-91 ATS (+32.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 3-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (5 - 5) at BUFFALO (3 - 7) - 11/29/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-2 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (7 - 3) at TENNESSEE (4 - 6) - 11/29/2009, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (3 - 7) at ST LOUIS (1 - 9) - 11/29/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 103-135 ATS (-45.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 103-135 ATS (-45.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 47-69 ATS (-28.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 75-105 ATS (-40.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 5-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 5-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (1 - 9) at ATLANTA (5 - 5) - 11/29/2009, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (4 - 6) at NY JETS (4 - 6) - 11/29/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 54-31 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 36-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 77-52 ATS (+19.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NY JETS are 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (6 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 6) - 11/29/2009, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (3 - 7) at SAN DIEGO (7 - 3) - 11/29/2009, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 4-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (6 - 4) at BALTIMORE (5 - 5) - 11/29/2009, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 30

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NEW ENGLAND (7 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (10 - 0) - 11/30/2009, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 56-33 ATS (+19.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 72-44 ATS (+23.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet


Week 12

Thursday, 11/26/2009

GREEN BAY at DETROIT, 12:30 PM ET FOX
GREEN BAY: 20-5 Over off ATS win
DETROIT: 1-6 ATS vs. conference

OAKLAND at DALLAS, 4:15 PM ET CBS
OAKLAND: 7-0 Under off an Over
DALLAS: 21-9 ATS at home off BB ATS losses

NY GIANTS at DENVER, 8:20 PM ET NFL
NY GIANTS: 18-5 ATS in road games
DENVER: 2-12 ATS off ATS loss


Sunday, 11/29/2009

INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS: n/a
HOUSTON: n/a

CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 6-0 ATS after scoring 30+ points
CINCINNATI: 6-0 Under after outrushing last opp by 75+ yds

(TC) CHICAGO at MINNESOTA, 4:15 PM ET
CHICAGO: 1-5 ATS L6 games
MINNESOTA: 3-0 ATS vs. division

WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA, 1:00 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 10-2 Under playing with revenge
PHILADELPHIA: 8-3 ATS after having lost 2 out of L3 games

MIAMI at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET
MIAMI: 7-0 ATS Away off SU win
BUFFALO: 0-6 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards

(TC) ARIZONA at TENNESSEE, 4:15 PM ET
ARIZONA: 13-3 Over off an Under
TENNESSEE: 6-1 ATS vs. non-conference

SEATTLE at ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM ET
SEATTLE: 17-6 Over off loss by 21+ points
ST LOUIS: 7-22 ATS revenging same season loss

TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA, 1:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 4-0 ATS vs. Atlanta
ATLANTA: 7-1 Over vs. conference

CAROLINA at NY JETS, 1:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 77-52 ATS as an underdog
NY JETS: 3-11 ATS at home off road game

JACKSONVILLE at SAN FRANCISCO, 4:05 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 12-1 Over after gaining 75 or less rushing yards
SAN FRANCISCO: 1-9 ATS at home if the total is between 38.5 and 42

KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO, 4:05 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 9-1 ATS as DD underdog
SAN DIEGO: 40-23 Under at home vs. division

PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE, 8:20 PM ET NBC
PITTSBURGH: 4-1 Over vs. Baltimore
BALTIMORE: 2-8 ATS off 4+ Unders


Monday, 11/30/2009

NEW ENGLAND at NEW ORLEANS, 8:35 PM ET ESPN
NEW ENGLAND: 72-44 ATS as an underdog
NEW ORLEANS: 35-55 ATS as home favorite

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NFL


Week 12

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 26

12:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. DETROIT
Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 2-23 SU in its last 25 games

4:15 PM
OAKLAND vs. DALLAS
Oakland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
Oakland is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Dallas is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home

8:20 PM
NY GIANTS vs. DENVER
NY Giants are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing Denver
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games



Sunday, November 29

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. NY JETS
Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 9 games on the road
NY Jets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games
NY Jets are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. CINCINNATI
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
Cincinnati is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. HOUSTON
Indianapolis is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. BUFFALO
Miami is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. ST. LOUIS
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games at home
St. Louis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. ATLANTA
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
Washington is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Philadelphia
Washington is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

4:05 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
San Francisco is 2-2-2 ATS in its last 6 games

4:05 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. SAN DIEGO
Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas City is 4-18 SU in its last 22 games
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
San Diego is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City

4:15 PM
ARIZONA vs. TENNESSEE
Arizona is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
Arizona is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

4:15 PM
CHICAGO vs. MINNESOTA
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Chicago
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Chicago

8:20 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. BALTIMORE
Pittsburgh is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Baltimore is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home



Monday, November 30

8:30 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. NEW ORLEANS
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England
New Orleans is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing New England


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[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel


Green Bay at Detroit
The Packers look to build on their 9-4 ATS record in their last 13 games as a road favorite. Green Bay is the pick (-11) according to Dunkel, which has the Packers favored by 14 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-11). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 26

Game 103-104: Green Bay at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 132.898; Detroit 118.183
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 14 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 11; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-11); Under

Game 105-106: Oakland at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 123.187; Dallas 137.441
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 14 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Dallas by 13 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-13 1/2); Under

Game 107-108: NY Giants at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 131.398; Denver 134.088
Dunkel Line: Denver by 2 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 6 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+6 1/2); Over



SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 29

Game 205-206: Indianapolis at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 140.940; Houston 139.874
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1; 50
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3 1/2); Over

Game 207-208: Cleveland at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 117.898; Cincinnati 137.874
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 20; 44
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 14; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-14); Over

Game 209-210: Chicago at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 127.269; Minnesota 140.289
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 13; 42
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 10 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-10 1/2); Under

Game 211-212: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 128.274; Philadelphia 134.161
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 6; 43
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 9 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+9 1/2); Over

Game 213-214: Miami at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 135.831; Buffalo 126.994
Dunkel Line: Miami by 9; 42 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-3); Over

Game 215-216: Arizona at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 138.215; Tennessee 134.014
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 4; 52
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+3); Over

Game 217-218: Seattle at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 125.828; St. Louis 120.261
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 5 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-3); Over

Game 219-220: Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 126.674; Atlanta 134.690
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 8; 43
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 12; 46
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+12); Under

Game 221-222: Carolina at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 135.009; NY Jets 132.029
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 3; 39
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Under

Game 223-224: Jacksonville at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 126.844; San Francisco 131.526
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 4 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick San Francisco (-3); Under

Game 225-226: Kansas City at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 126.875; San Diego 136.307
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 9 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: San Diego by 14; 45
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+14); Over

Game 227-228: Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 140.488; Baltimore 138.316
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 37
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A



MONDAY, NOVEMBER 30

Game 229-230: New England at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: New England 142.321; New Orleans 149.020
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 1 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-1 1/2); Over

[Udog]

NFL
Write-Up


Week 12 NFL games

Thursday's games

Packers (6-4) @ Lions (2-8)-- Stafford probably won't play here, which puts Culpepper under center; Detroit snapped six-game skid Sunday, but they are 2-5-1 vs spread as an underdog this year, 2-1 at home- their home losses are by 14-8-7 points (2-3 SU). Lions (+14) were blanked 26-0 at Lambeau back in Week 6, outgained 435-149; Detroit threw three picks, was 0-10 on 3rd down in game. Packers are 6-0 when they allow less than 30 points; they gave up 31-30-38-38 in their losses. Green Bay is 1-3 vs spread in last four games when favored. NFC North favorites are 4-1-1 vs spread in divisional games. Games on short work week are usually dependent on which injured players play.

Raiders (3-7) @ Cowboys (6-4)-- Hard to lay double digits with Dallas team that scored total of 14 points in last two games, none in first half. Pokes have four TDs on 31 drives in last three games, with 27 penalties for 172 yards, so small mistakes are killing drives. Oakland lost 23-3/38-0 in games after their first two wins; they're 2-2 as road dogs, losing away games by 23-37-8 points. Raiders allowed average of 176.3 rushing yards over last four games. Injured players on contending teams more likely to suck it up on the short work week. NFC East home favorites are 6-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. AFC West road dogs are 4-6. Last three Dallas games stayed under the total.

Giants (6-4) @ Broncos (6-4)-- Very long trip on short week for Giant team that snapped 4-game skid with OT win over Falcons last week; Big Blue has given double figure points in second half of eight of their 10 games. Denver is first NFL team to be 6-4 after starting 6-0; they scored three TDs on last 42 drives, with only two takeaways and no drives started in enemy territory. In their 6-0 start, they started egiht drives in plus territory. Orton played most of game last week despite bum ankle. Eight of ten Denver games stayed under the total, but seven of ten Giant games went over. AFC home underdogs are 6-3 vs spread in non-divisional games.

[Udog]

NFL


Thursday, November 26

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Game of the day: New York Giants at Denver Broncos
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New York Giants at Denver Broncos (+7, 42)

Bye week blues and bye week bliss

First-year head coach Josh McDaniels and the Denver Broncos surprised everyone with a 6-0 start, with wins over top teams such as the Cowboys and Patriots.

The Broncos haven't won since. Denver is 0-4 (straight up and against the spread) and is losing by an average of 22.5 points per outing over the skid.

The 2009 New York Giants campaign is almost a near carbon copy of Denver's year, starting with a 5-0 record, which was then followed by a similar four-game losing slide.

The Giants bounced back with a 34-31 overtime win over the Atlanta Falcons after their bye week, in which head coach Tom Coughlin ordered his players to use the week off as a "vacation". But they blew a 31-17 lead and benefited large by winning the OT coin toss.

One key problem during their slide has been the amount of points allowed. The Giants gave up only 14.2 points per game in their first five games, but have given up 32.8 points a game since then.

Not the 2007 Patriots

If the Broncos are to keep the game close they are going to have to do something about their recent offensive woes.

Last week's three-point performance was highlighted by a shoving match between Brandon Marshall and Knowshon Moreno, after the rookie running back fumbled the ball in the end zone.

While the shoving may have been unnecessary, Marshall's frustration is fully warranted as the Broncos were 0-for-4 in the red zone, with the results being two fumbles, a field goal and a turnover on downs

Another problem to contend with is a less-than 100 percent Kyle Orton, who is expected to start but is dealing with an ankle injury.

Even with Orton at the helm, the offense has been anemic, scoring just 17 points per game this season and only 7.75 ppg in their last four games. The 2009 Broncos in no way resemble the team that McDaniels called plays for in 2007.

Which Eli will show up?

The Giants are one of the better offensive teams ranking fourth and averaging 385.5 yards per game. At times though they have been inconsistent and that all stems from their quarterback.

In the losses to the Saints, Cardinals and Eagles, Eli Manning threw a total of six interceptions, while only tossing three TDs. Every now and then he'll pull off an impressive performance like last week where he went 25-for-39 on 384 yards and three TDs.

Manning will have to contend with a Broncos secondary led by Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins. The Broncos have been outstanding against the pass, giving up only 182.5 yards per game - the third-best in the NFL.

The line

The Giants have produced a 4-5-1 ATS record this year with the losses coming in the last five games. They were set as favorites in four of those five games.

The total for the game has remained steady at 42 for most of the week.

The Giants are scoring 26.6 points per game and are giving up 23.5 ppg. They are a strong over team this year going 6-3-1 and this will be their eighth time dealing with a total higher than 40.

The Broncos have been one of the best under bets this year, going 2-8 on totals. This can be attributed to their offensive production which is only scoring 17 points per game.

Weather

Forecast predicts a high of 59 and low of 40 during gametime with a 10 percent chance of precipitation. Light southwest winds (sideline to sideline) are expected.

As always altitude will be a factor in Denver and Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes (who use to play for Broncos rival Kansas City) claims that it helps kickers and punters, "It adds probably five to eight yards."

Also keep in mind on how altitude will impact fatigue as the Giants are coming off four days rest (from an overtime game) and are traveling across two time zones for this must win Turkey Day tilt.


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[Udog]

NFL


Thursday, November 26

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What bettors need to know: Packers at Lions
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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+10.5, 47.5)

The Lions host their annual Thanksgiving game, this year against the Green Bay Packers.

The Lions (2-8, 2-7-1 ATS) are coming off a thrilling 38-37 win over the Cleveland Browns. Quarterback Matthew Stafford hit Brandon Pettigrew for a one-yard touchdown on the last play of the game for the victory. But Stafford isn’t expected to play this week because of a shoulder injury and star receiver Calvin Johnson is questionable with a variety of ailments.

Green Bay (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) is battling for an NFC Wild Card spot. With the Minnesota Vikings entrenched atop the NFC North, the Packers’ best chance to make it to the postseason is via the wild card. This is one of the easiest games left on Green Bay’s schedule.

Protection makes perfect

Give Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers time and he can be one of the top players in the NFL. He’s the fourth-ranked quarterback in the league, but has been sacked five times in the past two weeks while leading Green Bay to victories over Dallas and San Francisco.

The previous two weeks, Rodgers was sacked 15 times in total and the Packers lost both games, first to Minnesota and then to Tampa Bay. At that point in the season, the Packers were on pace for 74 sacks, which would be 12 more than the franchise's worst single-season mark.

Following the loss to Tampa, Packers coach Mike McCarthy said, “It has to stop. You can’t sit here and keep taking sacks.”

It appears his team got the message. Detroit is 24th in the league with 18 total sacks this season.

Rodgers has thrown for 2,788 yards this season, fifth-best in the league. Detroit has allowed 2,753 yards through the air this season, the worst in the NFL.

Injury report

The Lions will take wins any way they can get them after picking up just two victories in their last 34 games. However, Sunday’s last-second victory over the Browns came with the serious price.

Stafford suffered a shoulder injury on the second-to-last play of the game. The rookie out of Georgia, who had thrown for a career-best 422 yards, was able to play the final snap and throw a touchdown pass but he hasn’t practiced this week and all signs point to him not playing.

Daunte Culpepper will play in Stafford’s absence. Calvin Johnson, the Lions’ top receiver with 597 yards, is also questionable with hand and knee injuries.

The Packers lost defensive starters Aaron Kampman and Al Harris to knee injuries in their win over San Francisco. Both players are past their prime but were still important starters.

Tramon Williams will replace Harris and Jarrett Bush will move into the No. 3 role.

Brown returns

A week after he was benched for running the wrong way on a screen pass, Lions rookie running back Aaron Brown returned to the lineup and had a 46-yard kickoff return and a 26-yard TD reception.

“We haven’t been getting production out of Aaron’s role and we needed to do something about it,” said coach Jim Schwartz following Brown’s benching.

After his successful return to the lineup, Brown said, “I think I’m a much better athlete and a much better team player than I was a couple weeks ago.”

Rotten turkey

The Lions have lost five straight on Thanksgiving, all by double digits, including last season’s 47-7 loss to Tennessee.

Takeaway disparity

Green Bay is the best team in the NFL in turnover margin at +14 number. Detroit is third from the bottom with a -9.

Line movement

With Stafford out, as well as Johnson's questionable status, the line has moved up at most shops from 10 or 10.5 to 11.

Trends

- Green Bay has won the last eight games SU between the teams.
- Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games between the teams,
- Green Bay is 0-4 in its last four games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater.
- Detroit is 4-1 in its last five games as a home underdog of 10.5 or greater.
- The over is 4-0-1 in the Packers’ last five games on fireldturf.
- The over is 6-0 in the Lions’ last six games following a SU win.


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[Udog]

NFL


Thursday, November 26

ADDITIONAL THANKSGIVING DAY TRENDS

If both teams played at home last week, the home underdog is 2-9 ATS and 9-2 OVER. (Detroit and Denver)
If both teams played at home last week, the home favorite is 10-4-1 ATS. (Dallas)
If both teams were favorites in last contest, the home team 7-12-2 ATS (Detroit)
If the home team was favored last week and the visitor was an underdog, the home team is 11-0 ATS. (Dallas)
If the home team was an underdog in last game and the visiting team was a favorite, the home club is 1-8 ATS and 5-1 UNDER. (Denver)
If the home town team is off a SU loss and the visitor is off a SU win, the road team is 7-1 ATS and 8-3 UNDER. (New York Giants)
If the road team is off two wins, they are 10-3 ATS. (Green Bay)
Road teams that were underdogs last week are 5-22 ATS. (Oakland)
Home favorites of seven or more 7-1 UNDER. (Dallas)
Home teams that were favored by six or more points in last contest are 12-3-1 ATS. (Dallas)
Home teams of a SU win are 9-4-1 ATS and 22-13-1 OVER (Detroit and Dallas)
Home teams off a SU loss are 4-8 ATS. (Denver)
Home teams after scoring 28 or more points are 8-1 ATS and 12-4-1 OVER. (Detroit)
In the last six years, home favorites are 18-8-1 ATS, including 8-1 ATS if favored by a touchdown or more. (Dallas)
Away favorites are 9-0 ATS since 2004. (Green Bay and New York Giants)

[Udog]

NFL


Thursday, November 26

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Tips and Trends
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Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys [CBS | 4:15 PM ET]

Raiders: Oakland switched QBs, and it paid off by beating the Bengals as 9 point underdogs last week. The Raiders have covered 3 of the 4 games ATS that they were double digit underdogs. New QB Bruce Gradkowski showed great poise last week, leading the Raiders on a game tying 80 yard scoring drive. Gradkowski threw for 2 TDs while only having 1 INT. The Raiders pass defense has held opposing passing games to under 250 YDS for 5 straight games. This Raiders defense will need to play very well in order for the Raiders to keep this game close.

Oakland is 5-12 ATS last 17 games following an ATS win.
Over is 6-2 last 8 games following a SU .

Key Injuries - DL Richard Seymour (back) is questionable.
WR Javon Walker (hamstring) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 10

Cowboys (-13.5, O/U 40): Dallas comes off of a hard fought victory over the Redskins last week. Dallas is 4-1 SU at home this year. While the Cowboys are leading the NFC East, there is great concern with this offense. They've scored only 7 PTS in each of the last 2 games, with both scores coming in the 4th quarter. Defensively, Dallas is playing their best football of the season. The Cowboys are 5th in the NFL in total defense. LB DeMarcus Ware has 7 sacks on the season, and is the leader of this great defense.

Cowboys are 7-3 ATS last 10 games as a home favorite.
Under is 17-7 last 24 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Key Injuries - QB Tony Romo (back) is probable.
TE Jason Witten (foot) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (UNDER - Total of the Day)



New York Giants at Denver Broncos [8:20 PM ET]

Giants (-6.5, O/U 42): New York has been Jekyll and Hide this year. After starting the season with 5 SU wins, they've lost 4 of their last 5 games SU. They're on a streak of 5 consecutive ATS losses. Defense has been the problem for New York, as they have allowed almost 33 PPG in their 5 game ATS slide. With the Giants nursing injuries in the running game, QB Eli Manning needs to play well today on the road. In particular, Manning needs to avoid turnovers, as he's had 8 turnovers over the past 5 games. Manning is coming off his finest game of the season, throwing 3 TDs and over 375 YDS passing.

Giants are 13-3 ATS last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 12-3-1 last 16 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Key Injuries - RB Ahmad Bradshaw (ankle) is out.
LB Antonio Pierce (neck) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21

Broncos: Denver is 6-4 on the season, both SU and ATS. However, the Broncos are in turmoil having lost 4 consecutive games SU and ATS. Denver is averaging just over 7 PPG during the current 4 game losing streak. For the season, Denver is only averaging 17 PPG, 8th worst in the NFL. QB Kyle Orton is hurt, and RB Knowshon Moreno and WR Brandon Marshall are fighting with each other. It's on the defense of the Broncos to win this game today. This pass defense is 3rd best in the NFL, allowing under 185 YPG. CB Champ Bailey will look to shut down the Giants passing attack to help the Broncos snap their losing streak.

Broncos are 0-5 ATS last 5 games following a SU loss.
Under is 10-1 last 11 home games.

Key Injuries - QB Kyle Orton (ankle) is probable.
S Brian Dawkins (neck) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20 (Side of the Day)


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[Udog]

NFL


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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 12
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-11.5)

Why Buccaneers cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings and 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings in Atlanta. HC Raheem Morris is taking over the defensive play calling to try and improve Tampa Bay's defense. Kicker Jason Elam has cost Atlanta important points in some close games.

Why Falcons cover: Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Matt Ryan is 11-1 SU at home in his pro career. QB Josh Freeman (3.8 yards per attempt, 3 interceptions) struggled against the Saints' pass rush last week and could be forced into more trouble against John Abraham and company.

Total (46): Over is 12-4 in Buccaneers' last 16 road games and 5-0 in Falcons' last five games overall.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (+3.5)

Why Dolphins cover: They're 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bills offensive line is banged up. Ricky Williams (138 total yards, 3 TDs) was phenomenal in place of Ronnie Brown last week.

Why Bills cover: They lead the AFC in interceptions. Miami lost NT Jason Ferguson for the season with a quad injury last week. Home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Buffalo. Terrell Owens has come to life with 282 receiving yards and a TD in the last two weeks.

Total (40): Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-14)

Why Browns cover: Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. Brady Quinn (304 yards, 4 TDs) is coming off his best game as a pro. Cincinnati has a tendency to play to the level of its opponent.

Why Bengals cover: They've won eight of the last 10 meetings. They're 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games and could get leading rusher Cedric Benson back from injury. Carson Palmer is 7-2 SU in his career vs. Cleveland.

Total (39.5): Under is 5-2-1 in Browns' last eight road games and 11-4-1 in Bengals' last 16 home games.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+3.5)

Why Colts cover: They're 14-1 SU all-time against Houston. They're 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. Indy has picked off Matt Schaub four times in their last two meetings. Texans have third worst running attack in the NFL. Colts boast AFC's sixth-best rush defense.

Why Texans cover: They're 5-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Indy has 13 starters listed on this week's injury report including Peyton Manning (back), Dwight Freeney (abdomen) and Reggie Wayne (foot).

Total (48.5): Over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings and 4-0 in the last four in Houston.

Carolina Panthers at New York Jets (-3)

Why Panthers cover: Jets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. After a great start, rookie QB Mark Sanchez has looked lost throwing 14 interceptions in his last six games.

Why Jets cover: Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Julius Peppers is dealing with a hand injury that has limited his tackling ability. With Landon Johnson joining Thomas Davis who is out for the year, the Panthers have lost their second linebacker in as many weeks.

Total (41.5): Over is 3-0-1 in Jets' last four games and 7-2 in Panthers' last nine road games.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-9)

Why Redskins cover: Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Philadelphia's is dealing with multiple injuries at linebacker and in the secondary. Jason Campbell is 2-0 for his career at Philadelphia.

Why Eagles cover: They're 6-2 ATS in the last eight home games. They have won 11 of the past 16 meetings. With both Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts out, career special teamer Rock Cartwright will handle the bulk of the rushing duties for Washington. NFC”s fourth best defense should shut down a Redskins offense that is one of the lowest scoring in the league.

Total (40.5): Under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Philadelphia.

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (+3)

Why Seahawks cover: They're 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Rams RB Steven Jackson has been battling back spasms all week. Seahawks might get leading rusher Julius Jones back from injury. Kyle Boller with start at QB for the Rams in place of injured Marc Bulger.

Why Rams cover: Seahawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

Total (42): Under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-13.5)

Why Chiefs cover: Underdog is 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Chris Chambers (25 yards per catch, 2 TDs in three games) has sparked the Chiefs' passing attack and is motivated to prove San Diego was wrong for cutting him earlier this season.

Why Chargers cover: They’ve won four consecutive meetings SU. They're 4-1 ATS in their last five games. LaDainian Tomlinson has caught fire and gets to test Chiefs weak rush defense.

Total (44.5): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in San Diego.

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

Why Jaguars cover: They've won both prior meetings. 49ers are 1-3 SU since Alex Smith has become the starting quarterback.

Why 49ers cover: They're 6-1-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Both of Jacksonville's top offensive threats (Maurice Jones-Drew and Mike Simms-Walker) are dealing with knee injuries.

Total (41.5): Under is 6-2 in Jaguars' last eight road games.

Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans (-1)

Why Cardinals cover: They've won five of eight all-time meetings. They're 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Beanie Wells has taken on a bigger role in the offense and has averaged over 5.3 yards per carry in his last four games.

Why Titans cover: Titans are 4-0 ATS and SU since Vince Young became the starting QB. Arizona kicker Neil Rackers is dealing with a groin injury. Kurt Warner is dealing with a head injury he suffered last week.

Total (47): Over is 40-19 in Cardinals' last 59 road games.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5)

Why Bears cover: Vikings are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight home games. Facing one of the NFL's worst pass defenses could spark the struggling Jay Cutler. He threw for 246 yards and two TDs in his last game against Minnesota and was not intercepted.

Why Vikings cover: They've won three of the past four meetings. Expect to get stud cornerback Antoine Winfield back from injury. Home team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings. Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings in Minnesota.

Total (47): Over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings and 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in Minnesota.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2)

Why Steelers cover: They've won three of the last four meetings. Terrell Suggs is likely out with a sprained MCL and Ray Lewis is hampered by an ankle injury. Joe Flacco has been sacked 15 times in his last seven games. Pittsburgh has the NFL's top defense and has registered 29 sacks this season.

Why Ravens cover: Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Baltimore and 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. Ben Roethlisberger will be playing even though he had his bell rung last week. Dennis Dixon (one career pass) is the only other QB for Pittsburgh.

Total (42): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints (-3)

Why Patriots cover: They won the last three meetings. New Orleans had to sign two defensive backs off the street to help fill injury depleted secondary. Leigh Torrence, Jabari Greer, Randall Gay and Tracy Porter are all injured.

Why Saints cover: They're 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Drew Brees often plays in the shadows of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning as the league's best quarterbacks. This is a perfect platform for him to prove he belongs.

Total (56.5): Over is 14-3-1 in Saints' last 18 home games and 5-2-1 in Patriots' last eight Monday games.


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[Udog]

NFL
Write-Up


Sunday's games

Colts (10-0) @ Texans (5-5)-- Tough, short week for Texans after 20-17 loss to Titans Monday night; they also lost 20-17 at Indy three weeks ago; Brown missed tying FG on last play in both games. Schaub was 32-43/301 passing at Indy; Texans converted 37 of last 71 third down plays. Colts have six wins by four or less points; their last four wins are by total of 10 points. they're 3-0 as road favorite, with road wins by 4-21-22-36-2 pts. Underdogs are 5-2 vs the spread in AFC South games. Houston held Colts to 5.8 ypp in first meeting, lowest figure for Indy this year. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Houston games. Houston lost three of its five home games.

Browns (1-9) @ Bengals (7-3)-- Cincy needed OT to win 23-20 in Week 5 on Lake Erie, in game where Browns had 19-yard edge in field position, and held Bengals to 4.8 ypp, their lowest of season. Cincy scored 18 or less points in five of last six games; they're 3-2 at home (0-2 as home favorite) winning its home games by 3-35-10 points. Browns scored 37 points last week, losing at Detroit after leading 24-3; they had scored total of 29 points in previous five games. Lions gained 473 yards on Cleveland, 75 more than in any other game they've played. Browns covered three of their last four road games. Underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in AFC North games.

Bears (4-6) @ Vikings (9-1)-- Chicago lost five of six since their bye (only win vs Browns), after 3-1 start; they're 1-4 on road, losing by 6-7-35-4 pts, with only win at Seattle when Hasselbeck didn't play. Bears scored three TDs on 30 drives in last three road games, allowing average of 149.7 rushing yards/ game in last three ga,es. Vikings won their last three games by 9-17-26 points, scoring 13 TDs on 34 drives; they're 2-2-1 as home favorite, winning by 3-7-2-17-26 points. Vikings are 4th in NFL in red zone offense (5.26 ppp). Three of last four Minnesota games stayed under total. Favorites are 4-1-1 vs spread in NFC North games.

Redskins (3-7) @ Eagles (6-4)-- Philly (-7) won 27-17 at Washington back in Week 7, creating four Redskin turnovers, outrushing Washington 122-62, but Campbell was 29-43/246 passing for Skins. Washington lost five of its last six games, but played hearts out in 7-6 loss at Dallas last week, outgaining Pokes 324-305, holding Romo to 5.4 ypp. Philly is 6-0 if they score 24+ points, 0-4 when they don't; only two of last nine Redskin foes topped 24. Over is 7-3 in Philly games, 3-1 in Redskins' last four games. Underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in NFC East games. Eagles are 5-2 against the spread as a favorite this season, with home wins by 20-19-23 points.

Dolphins (5-5) @ Bills (3-7)-- Resurgent Miami (5-2 in last seven games) had three extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday last week; Miami won first meeting 38-10 in Week 4 (+2), their first win of year, getting a defensive TD and outrushing Buffalo 250-46. Fourth road game in five weeks for Miami squad that is 2-3 on road. Fish scored average of 25.6 ppg in last seven games; they still had 154 rushing yards last week, playing without star RB Brown for first time. Buffalo lost last three games by 21-24-3 points; last week, in first game for interim coach Fewell, they threw more to Owens and had success. Underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in AFC East games, 3-0 at home.

Cardinals (7-3) @ Titans (4-6)-- Tennessee is first-ever NFL team to be 4-6 after starting season 0-6; Arizona is 5-0 on road this year, so something has to give here. Warner didn't play in second half last week after being hit in head, is expected to play here. Redbirds scored 12 TDs on 35 drives in its three-game win streak, even with scoreless second half with Leinart at QB last Sunday. Titans scored average of 31.3 ppg in 4-0 streak since bye, coming after 59-0 tank job in snow at Foxboro. NFC West road dogs are 9-3 vs spread outside its division. AFC South home favorites are 3-7. Six of last eight Tennessee games, last three Arizona games went over the total.

Seahawks (3-7) @ Rams (1-9)-- Seattle is 0-5 on road, with closest loss 31-20 at Dallas four weeks ago; for them to be road favorite is surprising, seeing how Rams' last four home games were Vikings-Colts-Saints-Cardinals, and they've had chance to tie game on last drive last two weeks. Seattle (-8) won 28-0 on Opening Day, outgaining Rams 446-247, but first TD scored on muffed punt, and Rams had blocked FG for TD called back by penalty. Jackson's back has been balky this week, but he's expected to play. Bollet gets not at QB after Bulger broke his leg; thats an upgrade. Home teams are 5-2 vs spread in NFC West games this season. Three of last four Seattle games went over total.

Buccaneers (1-9) @ Falcons (5-5)-- Atlanta won, covered all four home games, winning by 12-8-7-14 points; home side won nine of their ten games in 2009, with last five games going over total. Bucs are 1-4 at home, with losses by 13-24-7-31 points (1-4 as home dog). Atlanta is 5-0 when it allows 20 points or less; they gave up 26-37-35-28-34 in its losses. Tampa averages 15.4 ppg on road (2-3 as road dog). Falcons are 4th in NFL in ppp on drives starting 80+ yards from goal line (58 points/29 drives). Bucs surprisingly lead NFL in ppp in red zone (5.39-- 97 points/18 drives). Road teams are 4-2 vs spread in NFC South games. Falcons lost four of last five games (all losses on road).

Panthers (4-6) @ Jets (4-6)-- Stumbling Jets lost six of last seven games, with rookie QB Sanchez struggling (eight turnovers in two games since bye); they've lost last three home games, giving up 28.3 ppg in last three games overall, and now team is giving Sanchez signals on when it is wise to take chances; thats a red flag. Carolina has been running ball well, averaging 204.8 rushing yards in last four games, Jets are allowing 122+ rushing yards over last seven games. AFC teams are 24-19 vs NFC clubs this season; Panthers are 2-3 on road (2-2 as road dog) with road losses by 8-14-10 points. Over is 4-1-1 in Jets' last six games. Panthers covered their last three road games.

Jaguars (6-4) @ 49ers (4-6)-- 49ers lost five of last six games, but are 3-2 as a favorite, winning home games by 13-35-4 points (3-2 SU). Jax'ville won last three games by combined total of 8 points; their last three losses are all by 14+ points. Jags are 3-2 as dog on road; six of their last nine games went over total. Underdog is 4-1-1 vs spread in Niners' last six games. Del Rio has been trying to get Jags to run ball better; in their last five games, they ran ball for average of 159.4 rushing yards/game. In their four wins, 49ers allowed 16-10-0-6 pts; they're 0-6 allowing more than 16 points. NFC West home favorites are 4-4 vs spread outside their division; AFC South road dogs are 5-4.

Chiefs (3-7) @ Chargers (6-4)-- San Diego (-5.5) crushed Chiefs 37-7 in first meeting, outgaining KC 403-203, averaging 8.9 yards/pass; Chargers are 3-2 at home, 2-3 as home favorites, winning at Qualcomm by 10-8-8 points. Chiefs won last two games, covered last three; they're 3-2 as road dog, losing away games by 14-20-3 points, with wins at Washington, Oakland. Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Chief games, 1-3 in last four Charger games. Visitor is 7-1 vs spread in AFC West games this season. Chief WR Chambers faces team that released him; he's helped Bolts average 5.7/5.7/6.1 ypp in three games he's played, the highest average for them since the first two weeks of the season.

Steelers (6-4) @ Ravens (5-5)-- Raven offense scored only two TDs on their last 30 drives in last three games, scoring 7-16-15 points, losing two of three games. Steelers beat Baltimore in playoffs LY; this is their first meeting since then. Roethlisberger got kneed in head late in loss at Arrowhead last week; he is expected to play (backup Batch is out). Pittsburgh has horrible streak where they allowed four kick return TDs in last five games, allowed defensive TDs in three other games. Last four Baltimore games, three of Steelers' last four games stayed under total. Underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in AFC North games. Both of these teams are chasing Bengals in AFC North; loser is in deep trouble.


Monday's Game

Patriots (7-3) @ Saints (10-0)-- New England won four of last five games, the only loss 35-34 at unbeaten Colts; Pats have yet to win true road game, with losses at Jets (16-9), Broncos (20-17), Colts (35-34)- they beat Bucs over in England, a neutral site. Saints failed to cover last four games after covering the first six; they're 3-2 as home favorite, winning in Superdome by 18-14-21-8- 10 points. Saints ran ball for 203-183 yards in last two games; their offense is well-balanced. NFC South home favorites are 6-3 vs spread in non-divisional tilts; AFC East underdogs are 5-8 against spread, 5-4 on road. Three of Pats' four games away from home stayed under the total.

[Udog]

NFL


Sunday, November 29

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What bettors need to know: Steelers at Ravens
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2, 42)

Fierce division rivals, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, meet again Sunday night in a game that has serious playoff implications. With the Bengals (7-3 overall, 5-0 in the division) looking good to win the AFC North title, the 6-4 Steelers and 5-5 Ravens are likely battling for a Wild Card spot. Sunday's game in Baltimore is a rematch of last year's AFC title game, won 23-14 by Pittsburgh.

What's the line?

Due to the uncertain status of Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (concussion), most books had not released a pointspread or total for the game. The few that have listed the Ravens as 2-point favorites and set the total at 42. Roethlisberger fully participated in practices this week but reports Saturday said the starter would sit out due to a concussion.

Injury report

Big Ben's status has received all the attention on the Steelers' injury report, but the Black and Gold will be without a couple other key players Sunday night.

Safety Troy Polamalu remains out indefinitely with a knee injury (Steelers are 1-4 ATS without him this season). Backup pivot Charlie Batch (wrist) is also unavailable, meaning third-stringer Dennis Dixon would be pressed into service if Roethlisberger can't make it through the game.

The Ravens could be without several of their Pro Bowlers for Sunday's clash. Safety Ed Reed (foot) and tight end Todd Heap (chest) were both limited in practice this week and are listed as questionable, while linebacker Terrell Suggs (knee) is out for a couple weeks. Linebacker Ray Lewis admitted his foot and ankle were bothering him against the Colts last week, but he's probable for Sunday.

History lesson

The Steelers won both their regular-season meetings with the Ravens last year, then beat Baltimore again in the AFC title game. The two regular-season contests were decided by less than a touchdown, while Polamalu's late interception return for a major gave the Steelers a nine-point win in the playoff clash.

"The way we play each other, it's always a physical ballgame, it's always going to come down to one of the last plays," Ray Lewis said. "It's just the way it is."

The teams will meet again Dec. 27 in Pittsburgh.

Unspecial teams

Pittsburgh has allowed an NFL-high four kick-return touchdowns in its past five games. The last team to allow that many in an entire season was the Minnesota Vikings in 1998.

"Five touchdowns on special teams coupled with 25th in the league in turnover ratio will make a team that's capable of moving the ball and stopping people 6-4," coach Mike Tomlin said.

Major shortage

Baltimore's offense has sputtered in the past three games, producing only one touchdown in that span. Quarterback Joe Flacco has not thrown a touchdown pass in those three games, the longest drought of his young career.

It won't be easy to snap out of that funk against the Steelers. Flacco completed only 44.9 per cent of his passes in three meetings with Pittsburgh last year, throwing one touchdown and five interceptions. He was sacked 10 times in those games.

Tough schedule

Baltimore's 5-5 record might look mediocre, but the Ravens have also played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. All five of Baltimore's losses have come to current division leaders (the Bengals twice, Colts, Vikings and Patriots).

"These losses have been against teams that are quality football teams," coach John Harbaugh said. "Call them elite football teams in the league, but we aspire to that."

The Ravens' schedule gets a bit easier after Sunday. Baltimore will play the Packers, Lions, Bears, Steelers and Raiders to close out the season.

Trends

The home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings between the division rivals, going 6-4 against the spread. Five of the last six games have gone over the total.

The under has cashed in the Ravens' last four games overall, their last five games against the AFC and their last six home games against teams with winning road records.

Pittsburgh is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games overall, but the Steelers are 16-2 straight up in night games under Tomlin.


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[Udog]

NFL


Sunday, November 29

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NFL total bias: What can the Browns do for you?
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What can the Browns do for you? Try fattening your bankroll.

Seriously.

The team is 1-9 SU, 4-6 ATS and 4-6 over/under this fall. But don’t let those numbers fool you. Cleveland is a surprising 4-0 over/under when it scores at least 14 points this year. Books have kept Bengals games strapped with low totals all season due to the team’s ineptitude on offense (the guys in Revenge of the Nerds scored more). However, the team’s offense appears ready to turn the corner.

And that’s the biggest variable for the Browns – how many points will they score? The team’s defense is consistently mediocre, giving up more than 26 points per game and often getting embarrassed in the process. But when the offense manages to contribute several scores, this team has no trouble busting the number.

Brady Quinn finally got the confidence boost he needed against the Lions last week, completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 304 yards with four touchdowns against no interceptions. The former Notre Dame star entered the game with just three touchdown passes in his career.

More importantly, the team appears to finally have its rushing game gaining steam. The offensive line allowed only one sack and paved the way for 131 rush yards on 40 carries.

And the past several seasons, 14 points has been the magic number for the Browns offense. Last year, the team posted a 4-2 over/under record when scoring a minimum of two touchdowns. Two seasons ago when the team was scoring at will with Derek Anderson under center, it went 8-5-1 over/under when scoring 14 points or more.

Plus, the team gets to play the Bengals this week. The past seven times Cleveland has scored at least 14 points against their instate rivals, the over has hit four times. In the team’s most recent meeting, the Browns scored 20 points and came up just short in overtime, losing, 23-20. The total? You guessed it, a low 37.5 points.

If you still think I’m nuttier than a live performance by Adam Lambert, I have two points for you:

1. The Bengals allowed 20 points last week to Oakland.

2. Bruce Gradkowski was Oakland’s quarterback.

I rest my case.

Be smart, play the over and see what the Browns can do for you.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-14, 39)

I think I’ve already beaten this point into the ground more than Sarah Palin destroyed the word “maverick,” but just remember: the Browns don’t need to win. They don’t need to be competitive. They just need to score 14 points to put themselves in fantastic position to beat the total.

If Bruce Gradkowski can move the ball against the Bengals, why can’t Brady Quinn?

Confidence is one of the most important things in the NFL and the Browns should be playing with plenty of it on offense right now. Add in one of the worst defenses in the league, and that simple math adds up to an over.

Pick: Over


Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+3.5, 48)

This game should be a shootout. It should feature Houston quarterback Matt Schaub throwing jump balls to Andre Johnson and Colts signal caller Peyton Manning throwing lasers to Reggie Wayne in stride down the seam.

But it won’t.

The first meeting between the teams was a 20-17 snoozer that snapped a streak of eight straight meetings that went over the total. And I see no reason why this one should be any different.

The Texans need to keep the Colts off the field and the Colts want to attack the soft middle and porous run defense of the Texans. Both combine to make a game featuring lots of ball control, little risk-taking and plenty of punts.

These teams also have a combined record of 7-13 versus the total this year.

Pick: Under


Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-11, 47)

Brett Favre can’t wait to light up the Chicago Bears.

Favre is a notorious Bears killer and should have no problem against a Chicago defense that is yielding nearly 23 points per game. And even without a stud quarterback, the Vikings have had little trouble putting points up against the usually stingy Bears.

Four of the team’s past five meetings have gone over the total, including a 5-1-1 mark in the team’s past seven meetings overall.

And over players have to love Jay Cutler – he either turns the ball over, giving the opposing team great field position, or throws tight spirals all over the field and picks apart opponent’s best coverages.

Pick: Over

Last week: 1-2
Overall: 13-20


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[Udog]

NFL


Sunday, November 29

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NFL weather report: It could get messy in Cincy
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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (+3, 39)

There isn't any wind or snow in the forecast but the temperature could dip as low as 39 degrees during Sunday's game. Cold weather didn't affect Miami last season. The Fish went 3-0 straight up and against the spread in their December road games.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-13, 39.5)

The wind could get in the way of Cincy's passing attack. Meteorologists are calling for 14 mph winds from the southwest. Showers are expected later in the afternoon and into the evening. It doesn't look like it'll come down until after the game is over, but there is a chance the system moves in sooner.


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