Friday Trends and Indexes 10/16 (MLB, NHL, CFL, Misc.)

[pm530]

NHL


Friday, October 16

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. NEW JERSEY
Atlanta is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against New Jersey
Atlanta is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing New Jersey
New Jersey is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games at home
New Jersey is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:30 PM
NY ISLANDERS vs. BUFFALO
NY Islanders are 6-15 SU in their last 21 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 7 of the NY Islanders last 10 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games at home

7:30 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. FLORIDA
Philadelphia is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Florida
Florida is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Florida's last 10 games at home

8:30 PM
BOSTON vs. DALLAS
Boston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
Dallas is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Boston
Dallas is 4-1-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston

9:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. EDMONTON
Minnesota is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games when playing Edmonton
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games at home

9:00 PM
VANCOUVER vs. CALGARY
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Vancouver's last 9 games when playing Calgary
Vancouver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Calgary is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 6 games at home

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[pm530]

NHL


Friday, October 16

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Ice picks: Today's best NHL bets
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Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars (-120, 5.5)

This is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite direction.

The Stars enter this contest fresh off a 6-0 blowout win over the Preds Wednesday night. Dallas displayed a balanced scoring attack with each of its top two lines finding the back of the net multiple times.

“I thought our guys were spot on early in the game, especially our top two lines,” Stars coach Marc Crawford told the Dallas Morning News. “I thought they really established their dominance in the game.”

Dallas has yet to lose a game in regulation and has outscored its opponents 14-6 over the last three games.

The Bruins, meanwhile, have looked uneven throughout their first five games. Coach Claude Julien responded by modifying his top two lines a bit (Michael Ryder and Milan Lucic switched places). Julien is confident his club doesn’t need a major shakeup yet.

“It’s just a little tweak for no other reason than to see if that will help maybe shake things up a little bit and get some attention and maybe spark something,” Julien told the Boston Globe.

The over is a sizzling option for total bettors. The Stars and Bruins have both played over the total in each of their last four games.

Pick: Over 5.5


Philadelphia Flyers at Florida Panthers (+128, 5.5)

You know it’s a bad sign when a team hopes the arrival of journeyman center Dominic Moore will ignite its offense. Unfortunately for Florida backers, that’s the situation the Panthers are in.

Florida has just six goals in its last four games, all of which ended in a loss for the club.

The Flyers are taking some time for team building activities to try and get the squad a bit closer. The team fun days continue in south Florida and shouldn’t be interrupted by the Friday game against the Panthers.

Pick: Flyers -139

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[pm530]

CFL
Dunkel Index


Edmonton at Toronto
The Argonauts look to take advantage of an Edmonton team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games overall. Toronto is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Edmonton favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+4 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 16

Game 251-252: Edmonton at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 107.038; Toronto 105.632
Dunkel Line: Edmonton by 1 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 4 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+4 1/2); Under


SATURDAY, OCTOBER 17

Game 253-254: Saskatchewan at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 112.788; Calgary 112.362
Dunkel Line: Even; 48
Vegas Line: Calgary by 4; 54
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+4); Under


SUNDAY, OCTOBER 18

Game 255-256: Hamilton at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 107.740; Montreal 124.825
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 17; 50
Vegas Line: Montreal by 12 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-12 1/2); Over

Game 257-258: BC at Winnipeg
Dunkel Ratings: BC 108.233; Winnipeg 113.167
Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 5; 47
Vegas Line: Winnipeg by 1; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-1); Under

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[pm530]

CFL
Long Sheet


Week 16

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Friday, October 16
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EDMONTON (6 - 8) at TORONTO (3 - 11) - 10/16/2009, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
EDMONTON is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-1 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 3-1 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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Saturday, October 17
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SASKATCHEWAN (8 - 6) at CALGARY (8 - 6) - 10/17/2009, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 54-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 134-102 ATS (+21.8 Units) in all games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 134-102 ATS (+21.8 Units) in all lined games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 90-55 ATS (+29.5 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-4 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 6-3 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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Sunday, October 18
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HAMILTON (6 - 8) at MONTREAL (12 - 2) - 10/18/2009, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 5-4 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 8-1 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BRITISH COLUMBIA (7 - 7) at WINNIPEG (6 - 8) - 10/18/2009, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 45-26 ATS (+16.4 Units) in road games off a division game since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games off a win over a division rival since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 3-2 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 3-2 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

CFL
Write-up


Week 16 CFL games

Friday, October 16

Edmonton (6-8) @ Toronto (2-12)-- Argonauts lost their last ten games; four of their last seven losses are by six or less points, Argos are 0-6 at home, losing by 10-1-8-3-3-19 points (1-3 as home dog). Eight of last 12 Toronto games stayed under the total. Eskimos are 1-5 in last six games, losing last three by 3-10-3 points; they're 2-4 on road, winning twice in Regina, 38-33/31-27. Edmonton is 1-6 if they score less than 31 points.


Saturday, October 17

Saskatchewan (8-6) @ Calgary (8-6)-- Roughriders (+9.5) won 24-23 in Calgary in Week 5; Riders are 4-3 on road, 4-1 vs spread as dog on road, with away losses by 15-9-3 points. Stampeders won last four games at home by 8-24-1-9 points; they scored 17 or less points in three of last four games, scoring 15-11 points in last two. Six of last seven Calgary games stayed under. Winner takes over first place in a wide open west.


Sunday, October 18

Hamilton (7-7) @ Montreal (12-2)-- Alouettes beat Hamilton twice this year, 21-8 here in Week 4 (-14), 42-8 (-3.5) three weeks ago in Hamilton, holding TiCats to 63 passing yards in rematch. Als won last five games, covered last four; they're 7-0 at home, 4-3 as home favorite, winning its home games by 34-13-25-9-4-19-21 points. Hamilton is 5-1 vs spread on road, 4-0 as underdog, losing its away games by 1-1-13-10 points.

BC Lions (7-7) @ Winnipeg (6-8)-- Bombers were 2-5 when they went west and upset Lions 37-10 in Week 8 (+8), running ball 42 times for an astounding 393 yards, with a +4 turnover ratio. BC is 3-4 on road, with dogs 5-2 vs spread in those games. Six of Lions' last seven games stayed under the total. Winnipeg won its last three games, scoring 31.3 ppg- in their eight losses, they have -16 TO ratio- in their wins, TO ratio is +15.

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[pm530]

CFL


Friday, October 16

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Trend Report
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7:30 PM
EDMONTON vs. TORONTO
Edmonton is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Edmonton is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Edmonton


Saturday, October 17

3:30 PM
SASKATCHEWAN vs. CALGARY
Saskatchewan is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games when playing Calgary
Calgary is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games at home
Calgary is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home


Sunday, October 18

2:00 PM
HAMILTON vs. MONTREAL
Hamilton is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Hamilton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Montreal is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Hamilton
Montreal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Hamilton

5:00 PM
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. WINNIPEG
British Columbia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
British Columbia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Winnipeg is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against British Columbia
Winnipeg is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against British Columbia

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[pm530]

MLB
Long Sheet


UPDATE

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NLCS

Friday, October 16

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PHILADELPHIA (97 - 70) at LA DODGERS (98 - 68) - 4:05 PM
PEDRO MARTINEZ (R) vs. VICENTE PADILLA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 45-22 (+17.9 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
LA DODGERS are 98-68 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA DODGERS are 36-13 (+20.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
LA DODGERS are 18-4 (+12.6 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
LA DODGERS are 98-68 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
LA DODGERS are 71-47 (+13.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
PADILLA is 18-8 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
PADILLA is 18-8 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
PADILLA is 24-15 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
PADILLA is 20-9 (+14.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
PADILLA is 36-22 (+16.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
PHILADELPHIA is 32-20 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 32-16 (+18.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 60-37 (+14.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 200-143 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 51-33 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 90-75 (+26.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Friday since 1997.
PHILADELPHIA is 48-30 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 72-52 (+15.8 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 36-24 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 4-4 (-0.2 Units) against PHILADELPHIA this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.8 Units)

PEDRO MARTINEZ vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
MARTINEZ is 3-3 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.95 and a WHIP of 1.171.
His team's record is 3-3 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (+0.0 units)

VICENTE PADILLA vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
PADILLA is 0-1 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 10.50 and a WHIP of 1.667.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

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[pm530]

MLB
Short Sheet

UPDATE

Friday, October 16th

National League Championship Series
Best of Seven
Game Two
Phillies Lead 1-0
TV: TBS
Philadelphia at LA Dodgers, 4:05 ET
Pedro Martinez (R) vs. Vicente Padilla (R)

Martinez:
PHI 16-4 Away off BB Overs
PHI 21-15 as a road underdog

Padilla:
5-12 TSR at home after giving up 0 ER last outing
LAD 23-8 Under at home when the total is 8.5 to 10

TSR = Team Start Record
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[pm530]

CFL


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Canadian bacon: CFL Week 16 preview and picks
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Friday, October 16

Edmonton Eskimos vs Toronto Argonauts (+4, 51)

The Argonauts have lost eight of their last nine games and their playoff hopes are nothing but virtual. It’s not that the Argos have played poorly, but they just don’t play well enough to end up on the winning side. Things aren’t that much rosier in Edmonton, as the Esks lost five on their last six. Edmonton’s offence did well last week, putting 31 points on the board but the defence ended up giving three more.

Nonetheless, since they fired their offensive coordinator Rick Worman, the Eskimos have a 1-5 record. And the Eskimos didn’t win in Toronto since 2005. Edmonton will get some reinforcement for this game with the returns of two solid defensive backs in Kelly Malveaux and Eric Taylor. Kerry Joseph, despite suffering a concussion late in the second quarter of last week’s game in Regina, will be the starting QB and his backup will be rookie Stephen Reaves since Cody Pickett suffered a muscular tear to the torso. Nothing to make Argos fans feel better.

Pick: Edmonton -4



Saturday, October 17

Saskatchewan Roughriders vs Calgary Stampeders (-4, 54)

As good as Henry Burris is, and despite the fact he still is one of the best quarterbacks the CFL, his offensive line doesn’t give him enough time to throw the ball and his receivers can’t seem to free themselves. No one should be surprised that tempers flared up in the locker room after an awful loss in Montreal, where slotback Teyo Johnson and cornerback Brandon Browner almost exchanged blows. The Roughriders are coming to Calgary with ambitions of taking first place in the West but they will have to face the Stampeders without tight end Weston Dressler, who nurses a leg injury. Dressler is an awesome playmaker and his loss will undoubtedly be felt. At home, with the support of their zealous and intimidating fans, Calgary gets a perfect occasion to reaffirm their western supremacy.

Pick: Calgary -4



Sunday, October 18

Hamilton Tiger Cats vs Montreal Alouettes (-13, 48)

The digestion of the Thanksgiving turkey must have not been easy for the Tiger Cats players after that brutal loss to the Blue Bombers. Of course, the Tiger Cats did attempt a valiant comeback but still, the screening of the game film was undoubtedly unpleasant for many Hamilton players. The Tiger Cats have lost five of their last six games. End result: Kevin Glenn is now the number one QB ahead of Quinton Porter, whose two fumbles on Monday took away whatever patience was left in head coach Marcel Bellefeuille. Porter, by himself, was responsible of nine turnovers in the last four games.

Everything is peachy with the Alouettes and the perspective of a 16-2 season is now a topic of conversation in Montreal. Only the 1989 Eskimos managed to have such a regular season record. Some observers fear a letdown, especially since the Alouettes, with a guaranteed home game in the East Final on November 22, will play their last four regular season games against teams with loosing records. But in the Als dressing room, players vow it won’t be the case and they intend not only to win all four games but all six games, including of course the Grey Cup final.

Pick: Montreal -13


B.C. Lions vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-1.5, 50.5)

Here are two teams that have been through a chaotic journey since the start of the season but that have seemingly got back on track. The Lions defense is once again threatening to opposing quarterbacks while Bombers QB Michael Bishop has found his timing, leading is team to three straight victories. The only other team in the CFL that can boast winning at least three in a row at this point are the Montreal Alouettes.

With a QB on the top of his game, the Blue Bombers have regained their status of a very menacing team. Let’s not forget that their cornerback and punt/kickoff returner Jovon Johnson as well as receiver Adarius Bowman both have been among the CFL stars of the week. Plus, running back Fred Reid is now leading again the CFL with 1135 yards rushing, eight more than his counterpart for the Lions, Martel Mallett. The last time these two teams clashed, the Bombers won convincingly by the score of 37-10 at B.C. Place.

Pick: Winnipeg -1.5

(Last Week 3-1, season 32-24)

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[pm530]

Len’s Top Five

Friday, October 16

Len's Top 5

TGIF everyone, here's my Top 5 for October 16, 2009 from Len Berman Sports.

1. Quick Hits

* Game 1 for the American League pennant is tonight at Yankee Stadium. (Weather permitting.) Angels @ Yankees. 7:57pm ET FOX.

* The champion Phillies won game 1 for the NL pennant 8-6.

* Game 2, Philadelphia @ Dodgers this afternoon in L.A.: 4:07 p ET TBS.

2. Pennant Chasers

Games aren't decided on paper, but the truth is, on paper rain helps the Angels. If games get rained out, off days go away. And since the Angels have 4 starters and the Yankees 3, edge to the Angels. Of course the Yankees have Mariano Rivera, but I thought we agreed not to decide this thing on paper? Just ask the Phillies. Their supposedly awful bullpen got some key outs last night against the Dodgers. By the way, the game ended about 12:15 this morning. Those earlier starts this year are working out great aren't they?

3. Scooby Dooby Doo

With the Yanks in the playoffs, if you're a Sinatra fan or a Yankee fan, this one's for one. Top 5 subscriber V.I. sent along this link. SINATRA.COM | Calling All Sinatra Fans
It's Sal Scognamillo of Patsy's Restaurant in NYC recalling the night that Billy Martin and the 1978 champion Yankees met Frank Sinatra. And nobody got hurt. Enjoy.

4. Friday Mailbag

As for the comments of M.W. who thought wearing pink cleats was cool in the NFL, but wouldn't the money be better spent if it was just sent for cancer research? Several of you noted that the cleats and other pink items would be auctioned off for charity.
A different M.W. wrote: "The idea was not to raise money but to raise awareness and let women know that they should be getting yearly mammograms."

R.R. isn't a fan of TBS covering the playoffs. He wrote: "Don't think it's your practice to critique other sportscasers, but TBS's play-by-play coverage and commentary of the Yankees has been horrid. We shouldn't have Class A telecasts of MLB Championship baseball, especially in New York!"
Editor's Note: You are right, I don't pick on sportscasters since everyone else does!

In response to sports teams not touching each other before or after games to prevent disease, R.B. writes: "To take precautions against catching the Swine Flu, Kevin Bacon & John Hamm have agreed not to exchange high fives."
Editor's Note: I hate it when my subscribers are punnier than me.

As for the golfer who went to get his ball in a pond and had his arm bitten off by an alligator, E.M. wrote: "THAT'S why they call it a 'water hazard!'
And S.B. wrote: "Maybe the golfer who was bitten while retrieving his ball was actually crocked."
Editor's Note: Oy

And when I wrote about the New Zealand sports team that had second thoughts about calling themselves the Master Baiters, W.W. wrote: "Reminiscent of a dorm intramural softball team we had called 'with ourselves,' so when other teams had us on the schedule, they'd have to say "we're playing 'with ourselves."
Editor's Note: God I miss college humor.

5. Give that Subscriber a Hand

Lets end the week with a shout out to subscriber G.S. When he saw the "Master Baiters" item, he forwarded me the "Master Baiters" web site. They charter fishing boats in Puerto Vallarta Mexico. Their motto: "We won't jerk you around." Honest.
Good night everyone, drive home safely.

Happy Birthday: Former 7'6" NBA center Manute Bol. 47.
Bonus Birthday: Pitcher "Nuke" LaLoosh in Bull Durham, and fellow Stuyvesant alum, Tim Robbins. 51.

Today in Sports: The Miracle Mets! They win the World Series. 1969.
Bonus Event: What a relief. The Tremont House in Boston, becomes the first hotel in the U.S. to have indoor plumbing. 1869.
(Hey, back to back events about Flushing!)

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