NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 7 (10/13 - 10/17)

[pm530]

NCAAF


Friday, October 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What bettors need to know: Pitt at Rutgers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pittsburgh Panthers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+5.5, 45.5)

Revenge

Pittsburgh is 5-1 and if not for a fourth-quarter letdown against NC State, it would be 6-0. The Panthers are undefeated in conference play and they are still in very good position to win the Big East.

This is a huge game for Pitt. None of the current Pitt players have ever experienced a win vs. the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers has defeated the Panthers four years in a row by an average of 11 points per contest.

Senior QB Bill Stull was knocked out of last year’s game and he had three words for their game against Rutgers on Friday - “This is personal.”

Looking for a signature victory

Despite the 4-1 start, Rutgers has yet to record an impressive win. The Knights got torched at home by Cincinnati to begin the season and have since defeated Howard, Florida International, Maryland and Texas Southern by an average of 27 points per game.

Their 32-point home loss to Cincy says more than any of those four victories against below-average teams. Cincinnati scored 47 points and put up 562 yards of total offense against Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights, meanwhile, had just 293 total yards and a 1.5 YPC average.

Regardless of the Cincy game, Rutgers still ranks 29th nationally in total defense and seventh in rush defense. Granted, the Knights haven’t faced and top-tier talent since Cincinnati but an improved defense could cause problems for Pittsburgh’s offense.

Quarterback play

Both teams have good running attacks. Pitt’s true freshmen Dion Lewis ranks third nationally with 738 rushing yards. Rutgers features a very effective three-headed rushing attack with Joe Martinek, Jourdan Brooks and De-Antwan Williams combining for 868 yards and 10 touchdowns.

This game will come down to which quarterback can make more plays. Pitt QB Bill Stull is completing 67 percent of his passes for 13 touchdowns and just three interceptions. However, he did throw a pick-six that put them in a 14-3 deficit last week against Connecticut.

Rutgers QB Tom Savage hasn’t wowed anybody with his 56 percent completions or his 138 yards per game. But he also hasn’t thrown an interception and doesn’t make many other mistakes.

Trap game

Pitt is coming off of a come-from-behind last second win against Connecticut at home last week. The Panthers now travel to Rutgers to face the Scarlet Knights in what will be a very emotional game for the seniors.

At this point of the season, it’s apparent that the Panthers clearly have the better, more experienced team. However, Rutgers had a week off to prepare and it’s obvious that the Scarlet Knights head coach Greg Shiano and the rest of the coaching staff knows Pittsburgh very well, having defeated them four years in a row.

Pittsburgh may be extremely fired up for this game, but Rutgers should be well prepared and it’s hard to imagine the Scarlet Knights rolling over on a Friday night home game.

Line movement

The line opened at 3 and has stayed fairly steady around there until Thursday night when it climbed to 5.5 at some books.

The total opened at 49 before sinking slightly to 48.5, then dropping to 45.5 as of Thursday night.

Trends

The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Friday games and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games in October. They are also just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite. The ‘under’ is 6-2 in Panthers last eight games overall and 4-0 in Panthers last 4 conference games.

Rutgers is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall and 25-10-1 ATS in its last 36 games as an underdog. As a home dog, the Knights are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games. They are ‘under’ 12-3-1 in their last 16 games in October and also ‘under’ 4-1 in Scarlet Knights last 5 home games.

The road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings but Pittsburgh [road team] is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Weather

Game-time temperature is forecasted in the mid-forties with a 50 percent chance of rain.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[pm530]

NCAAF


Friday, October 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pittsburgh at Rutgers [ESPN | 8:00 PM ET]

Pittsburgh (-3.5, O/U 46): Rutgers has had Pittsburgh’s number recently winning the past four times. The Panthers lost to the Scarlet Knights, 54-34, last year at Heniz field despite out-gaining Rutgers, 486-442. The Panthers have been held to an average of 76 yards rushing by Rutgers during the past four meetings. The 5-1 Panthers have won two in a row beating Louisville on the road (35-10) and Connecticut (24-21). Their only loss came in Week 4 to North Carolina State, 38-31. The Panthers rallied from 16 points down in the third quarter to beat Connecticut at home in their last outing. Quarterback Bill Stull threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns. Pittsburgh ran for 221 yards in the win. Freshman running back Dion Lewis ranks second in the Big East in rushing averaging 123 yards per game. The Panthers have failed to cover 13 of the past 19 times they’ve been favored.

The Panthers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road contests.
The road team is 8-3 against the spread in the series.

Key Injuries - Defensive back Elijah Fields (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Rutgers: Rutgers gave up 47 points and 564 yards to Cincinnati in its opening game, a 47-15 defeat. But since that stinging loss, the Scarlet Knights have won four in a row, including shutting out Texas Southern (42-0) in their last game. Rutgers has played a softer schedule than Pittsburgh having defeated Howard (45-7), Florida International (23-15), Maryland (34-13) and Texas Southern. The Scarlet Knights frequently blitz. They’ve scored four touchdowns on defense. The Scarlet Knight have held their last three foes to an average of 65.2 yards per game. Rutgers ranks 66th in the nation in total offense. Running backs Jourdan Brooks and Joe Martinek have combined to rush for 647 yards, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Rutgers is 15-5-1 against the spread when getting between 3 ½ and 10 points. The Scarlet Knights have covered 10 of the past 14 times they’ve been a home underdog.

Rutgers is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
The Over is 9-4 in the Scarlet Knights’ last 13 games as a home underdog.

Key Injuries - Offensive lineman Caleb Ruch (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21 (Side of the Day)


Note: Today’s “Tips and Trends” Total of the Day is in MLB.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, October 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What bettors need to know: USC at Notre Dame
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, October 17

USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+10, 50)

It is one of college football's greatest rivalries but there has been very little competition in the series since Pete Carroll rebuilt the USC program. A Southern California native could help the Irish finally get back into the victory column against the Trojans Saturday.

USC

The Trojans (4-1, 2-3 ATS) have regained their swagger after dismantling California two weeks ago. The offense is still a work in progress with freshman QB Matt Barkley directing the attack.

The Trojans did open up the passing game against Cal as Barkley passed for a career-high 283 yards.

"I think (the coaches) have had that faith the whole time, but they've decided to open up the playbook now," said Barkley. "I'm confident that the coaches believe in me, and they do. We'll open up the playbook when we need to."

Junior running back Joe McKnight (7.1 yards per carry, 6 TD runs) will be counted on take some of the pressure off of Barkley.

Despite some significant personnel losses from last season, the USC defense hasn't suffered any drop-off. The Trojans are in the top 6 nationally in total, scoring and rushing defense. With an NCAA best 4.2 sacks per game, USC will seek to disrupt the potent Notre Dame air attack.

Notre Dame

The Irish (4-1, 1-4 ATS) haven't reached the end zone against USC since 2006 and have been outscored 76-3 in the last two years. Embattled Notre Dame head coach Charlie Weis feels that his club has a lot more confidence in 2009.

"I'd say this is probably the first time since I've been here where the players really believe they're going to win," Weis said. "They might be in the minority but they certainly believe that."

The offensive dry spell should end Saturday. Junior quarterback Jimmy Clausen is leading the nation in passing efficiency heading into the matchup. The Southern California native has been eagerly awaiting another chance to face the Trojans after being humbled in his homecoming to Los Angeles a year ago.

Clausen completed 11-of-22 passes for just 41 yards with a pair of interceptions in last season's 38-3 defeat. Wideout Golden Tate is Clausen's favorite target but homerun threat Michael Floyd (5 TD receptions) will miss his third straight game due to a collar bone injury.

The main difference between the two squads is on the defensive side of the football. Notre Dame's stop unit is 100th in the country in total defense and is 110th in passing defense. Senior safety Kyle McCarthy is a big play specialist for the Irish defense. He leads the unit in interceptions and tackles.

Trends

USC has won the last seven meetings in the series. Five of the victories have been by more than 30 points. Notre Dame leads the all-time series with a record 42-33-5 (23-12-1 in South Bend). The Trojans are 21-7-1 to the under in their last 29 games.

Weather

The forecast calls for partly cloudy skies with a high of 49 degrees in South Bend, IN.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, October 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns (-3, 52.5)

College football’s marquee kicks off at 12:00 p.m. ET in Dallas when No. 2 Texas (5-0, 2-0) tackles No. 18 Oklahoma (3-2, 1-0) at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.

The Longhorns opened a 1-point favorite and have been bet up to -3 with the total at 52 points.

Weather update

Warm temperatures in the mid to upper 60’s, under partly cloudy skies, are expected at kickoff. Northeast winds around 5 mph with a 10 percent chance of rain.

Setting the table

The series dates back to the turn of the 20th century, though the Red River Rivalry officially began in 1929, the first year the game was played at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. Staged at the Cotton Bowl as part of the Texas State Fair, the showdown splits the seating equally and is one of college football's greatest traditions.

Last year’s 45-35 come-from-behind win by Texas wasn’t enough to earn the Longhorns a spot in the Big 12 championship game, despite finishing in a three-way tie for the top-spot with Oklahoma and Texas Tech in the Big 12 South Division.

A controversy sent the Sooners to the title game. The three-way tie was decided by the BCS standings, with the Sooners holding a slight lead. An eventual win by Oklahoma over Missouri in the championship game sent the Sooners to the BCS title game, leaving the Longhorns anxious to atone for the decision rendered by the Big 12 brass.

Hence, while the revenge is Oklahoma’s, the incentive Texas brings to the game is strong.

Tale of the tape

Led by 2008 Heisman runner-up QB Colt McCoy, the Longhorns lead the nation in scoring averaging 47.2 PPG. They have scored 34 or more points in every game this season, and 30 or more in 19 of their last 20 regular season contests.

In addition the Texas rush defense ranks No. 2 in the land, surrendering 46 RYPG.

McCoy has tossed for 11,142 yards and 95 touchdowns in his career with Texas, good for a passer rating of 149.15.

Injured tailbacks Vondrell McGee and Tre Newton are expected to be game time decisions. The ailments to Texas’ top backs could leave the Longhorns to turn to Fozzy Whittaker and Cody Johnson.

The Sooners welcomed QB Sam Bradford back to the lineup last week, after missing time with a shoulder injury. Last year’s Heisman winner lit up the Baylor secondary with 389 passing yards and a TD en route to a 33-7 victory.

Bradford owns 8,326 passing yards and 88 touchdowns, with a 133.87 passer rating, with Oklahoma.

In a disappointing two-loss season (both defeats by one point each), Oklahoma’s strength has been its defense. It ranks No. 8 overall, allowing 256 YPG and No. 2 in scoring, surrendering 8.4 PPG. The Sooners defense is anchored by its stop-unit, allowing 54 YYPG.

Defense could win this matchup, especially since the Longhorns and Sooners rank 1-2 in the Big 12 in that category.

Why Texas wins this game

Incentive from being dissed by Big 12 and BCS officials last season finds this game circled in red ink on Mack Brown’s schedule.

UT’s only loss in its last 19 games was perhaps the most-watched game of the 2008 season, the dramatic last-minute defeat at Texas Tech.

Brown is 71-16 SU and 52-33-2 ATS in his head coaching career against sub-.666 opposition, including 3-0 SU and ATS on neutral fields.

Why Oklahoma wins this game

Urgency tends to bring the best out of good teams and the Sooners are a team that cannot afford another loss if they hope to secure a seventh BCS-bowl berth in the last eight years.

"Everyone makes such a big deal about just this game, but in the end, the objective is to win championships, so that's what matters. If we win this game, but won't win the Big 12 championship game, there isn't anyone patting us on the back,” commented OU coach Bob Stoops, on the importance winning out.

Stoops is 16-3 SU in his career at OU when his team owns a win percentage of less than .666 on the season.

With Bradford back in the lineup he will be anxious to atone for last year’s loss to the Longhorns. If WR Ryan Broyles is able to return from a shoulder injury, he gives Bradford a big target. Broyles was able to practice early this week.

Historically speaking

The higher ranked team has lost only 14 of last 61 games in this series.

OU leads the rivalry 7-6 since the formation of the Big 12 in 1996. Stoops is 6-4 against Brown, winning five straight from 2000 to 2004. Texas has won three of the last four contests.

Brown is 101-18 SU and 64-54-1 ATS as a conference favorite. Stoops is 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS as a conference dog.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, October 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Night
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson Tide (-18, 44)

Line movement

Alabama opened up as a 17-point favorite. That line went as high as 18.5 but seems to have settled on 17.5. The O/U line opened at 44.5 and went as high as 46 and has since settled back down at 44.5.

Weather update

Temperatures will hold around 45 for most of the day. Mostly sunny with some clouds with 10 to 15 MPH winds from the northwest. Cloudy in the evening with temperatures around 40. Winds will be 10 MPH from the northwest.

The Gamecocks

South Carolina's secondary is its backbone. It’s allowing an average of only 151 yards through the air per game. To have a shot at winning this game outright, South Carolina will have to limit Alabama to FG's once it’s inside the redzone.

Stephen Garcia has given his team stability at the QB position(9 TDs, 3 INTs, 61.2% CP). In fact, Garcia is the most mobile QB Alabama has faced since VT’s Tyrod Taylor.

The offensive line has improved but it’s still given up 15 sacks (2.5 per – 93rd in nation).

The Crimson Tide

Alabama has struggled offensively of late. The Tide had five trips inside the Ole Miss 20-yard line last week and failed every time to punch it in for a touchdown. The Tide ranks 10th in the SEC in red zone touchdown rankings with a success rate of 45.45 percent (15-of-33).

LB Jerrell Harris is back from suspension so Alabama's defense, which allowed Ole Miss only 19 yards and one first down in the first half, is going to get even better.

Kickoff coverage has been suspect for the Tide, which ranks ninth in the SEC in kickoff coverage with a 39.3-yard net average.

Notable Quotes and Facts

Alabama coach Nick Saban says the Gamecocks are vastly underrated.

“They’d be ranked much higher if it wasn’t for that four-point loss at Georgia,” said Saban.

Steve Spurrier is 6-4 all-time vs. Alabama.

South Carolina has an excellent defense that’s allowing 18.3 PPG.

SC has a higher percentage of redzone TDs than Alabama (52 percent to 44 percent).

“He is one of the best recruiters in the country. That’s why he’s one of the best coaches. I’d put him in the top four or five coaches in the country. He and his staff do very well. They’re very sound,” said Steve Spurrier of Alabama coach Nick Saban.

Nick Saban is 2-0 all-time vs. South Carolina.

Alabama leads the all-time series 11-2 (7-1 in Tuscaloosa).

The Tide’s defense is fourth in the nation in third down conversion rate (24.05 percent).

The last time these teams met was a 37-14 win for Alabama in Columbia in 2005 (Spurrier’s only game vs. UA at SC).

Significant ATS Trends

South Carolina is 5-1 SU its last six and 13-5-1 ATS its last 19 on the road while the total has gone over the posted number in five of its last six on the road.

Alabama is 5-1 ATS its last six overall, 5-0 SU its last five, 6-2 ATS its last eight at home while the total has gone over the posted number in four of its last five at home.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, October 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
College football Week 7 weather report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It looks like another beautiful weekend for football across the country as temperatures are starting to fall along with the leaves. Two big games, however, could have weather become a huge factor by the end of Saturday. Don’t forget to check the forecast one last time before placing your bets!

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Penn State Nittany Lions (-17.5, 45.5)

It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas in State College, Pa. From Thursday night through Saturday morning, an expect foot of snow is expected to fall in upstate Pennsylvania and stay just as ugly during the game. There is a 90 percent chance of precipitation with the temperature hovering right around 32 degrees. Bad weather should cripple the Gophers passing game, but will only help aide Penn State and its top-ranked defense.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Purdue Boilermakers (+ 13.5, 45)

The Buckeyes defense and special teams combined for three touchdowns in a 31-13 win over Wisconsin last week, and figure to have a similar chance at non-offensive touchdowns this Saturday in West Lafayette, Ind. The forecast calls for a 30 percent chance of rain, and don’t look for either passing game to put up huge numbers. There is an expected 14 mph wind that could cripple long passes and render the wide-open Purdue attack a moot point.



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NCAAF
Long Sheet


First Sat. Post


Saturday, October 17

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEVADA (2 - 3) at UTAH ST (1 - 4) - 10/17/2009, 3:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH ST is 1-1 against the spread versus NEVADA over the last 3 seasons
NEVADA is 2-0 straight up against UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (4 - 2) at PENN ST (5 - 1) - 10/17/2009, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MARSHALL (4 - 2) at W VIRGINIA (4 - 1) - 10/17/2009, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARSHALL is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
MARSHALL is 22-42 ATS (-24.2 Units) in road games since 1992.
MARSHALL is 22-42 ATS (-24.2 Units) in road lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
W VIRGINIA is 1-1 against the spread versus MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
W VIRGINIA is 2-0 straight up against MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

S CAROLINA (5 - 1) at ALABAMA (6 - 0) - 10/17/2009, 7:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
ALABAMA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ALABAMA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
ALABAMA is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.
ALABAMA is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
ALABAMA is 34-54 ATS (-25.4 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

USC (4 - 1) at NOTRE DAME (4 - 1) - 10/17/2009, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NOTRE DAME is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
USC is 2-0 against the spread versus NOTRE DAME over the last 3 seasons
USC is 2-0 straight up against NOTRE DAME over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CALIFORNIA (3 - 2) at UCLA (3 - 2) - 10/17/2009, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALIFORNIA is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) as a road favorite since 1992.
UCLA is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
UCLA is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
UCLA is 1-1 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
UCLA is 1-1 straight up against CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (4 - 1) at TULANE (2 - 3) - 10/17/2009, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULANE is 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
TULANE is 55-81 ATS (-34.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-0 against the spread versus TULANE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-0 straight up against TULANE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS TECH (4 - 2) at NEBRASKA (4 - 1) - 10/17/2009, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEBRASKA is 58-35 ATS (+19.5 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 79-52 ATS (+21.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 101-73 ATS (+20.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 78-49 ATS (+24.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 46-26 ATS (+17.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NEBRASKA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEBRASKA is 1-0 against the spread versus TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS TECH is 1-0 straight up against NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS A&M (3 - 2) at KANSAS ST (3 - 3) - 10/17/2009, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS ST is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS ST is 1-0 against the spread versus TEXAS A&M over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS ST is 1-0 straight up against TEXAS A&M over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VIRGINIA TECH (5 - 1) at GEORGIA TECH (5 - 1) - 10/17/2009, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA TECH is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 74-50 ATS (+19.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 93-67 ATS (+19.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) as a road favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA TECH is 1-1 against the spread versus VIRGINIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA TECH is 2-0 straight up against GEORGIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MISSOURI (4 - 1) at OKLAHOMA ST (4 - 1) - 10/17/2009, 9:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA ST is 1-0 against the spread versus MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA ST is 1-0 straight up against MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RICE (0 - 6) at E CAROLINA (3 - 3) - 10/17/2009, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AKRON (1 - 4) at BUFFALO (2 - 4) - 10/17/2009, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus AKRON over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 2-0 straight up against AKRON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO ST (3 - 3) at TCU (5 - 0) - 10/17/2009, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TCU is 44-23 ATS (+18.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TCU is 1-1 against the spread versus COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
TCU is 2-0 straight up against COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW MEXICO ST (3 - 3) at LOUISIANA TECH (2 - 3) - 10/17/2009, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO ST is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW MEXICO ST is 22-43 ATS (-25.3 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO ST is 2-0 against the spread versus LOUISIANA TECH over the last 3 seasons
LOUISIANA TECH is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KENT ST (2 - 4) at E MICHIGAN (0 - 5) - 10/17/2009, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENT ST is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
KENT ST is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HAWAII (2 - 3) at IDAHO (5 - 1) - 10/17/2009, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IDAHO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games this season.
IDAHO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
IDAHO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAWAII is 2-0 against the spread versus IDAHO over the last 3 seasons
HAWAII is 2-0 straight up against IDAHO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BYU (5 - 1) at SAN DIEGO ST (2 - 3) - 10/17/2009, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus BYU over the last 3 seasons
BYU is 2-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

STANFORD (4 - 2) at ARIZONA (3 - 2) - 10/17/2009, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
STANFORD is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
ARIZONA is 55-80 ATS (-33.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ARIZONA is 38-58 ATS (-25.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ARIZONA is 30-57 ATS (-32.7 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
ARIZONA is 38-58 ATS (-25.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
ARIZONA is 38-58 ATS (-25.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
STANFORD is 2-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
STANFORD is 2-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ILLINOIS (1 - 4) at INDIANA (3 - 3) - 10/17/2009, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ILLINOIS is 80-108 ATS (-38.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 80-108 ATS (-38.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
INDIANA is 51-75 ATS (-31.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ILLINOIS is 2-0 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
ILLINOIS is 2-0 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MEMPHIS (2 - 4) at SOUTHERN MISS (3 - 3) - 10/17/2009, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
SOUTHERN MISS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in October games over the last 2 seasons.
SOUTHERN MISS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 2-0 against the spread versus SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 2-0 straight up against SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

N ILLINOIS (3 - 2) at TOLEDO (3 - 3) - 10/17/2009, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
TOLEDO is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
TOLEDO is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TOLEDO is 1-1 against the spread versus N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
TOLEDO is 1-1 straight up against N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LOUISVILLE (2 - 3) at CONNECTICUT (3 - 2) - 10/17/2009, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 59-39 ATS (+16.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games after playing a conference game since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 47-28 ATS (+16.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 59-39 ATS (+16.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CONNECTICUT is 2-0 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 2-0 straight up against LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS (5 - 0) at COLORADO (1 - 4) - 10/17/2009, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS is 52-78 ATS (-33.8 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
KANSAS is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 26-44 ATS (-22.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
COLORADO is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS is 2-0 against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS is 2-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (4 - 1) at UCF (3 - 2) - 10/17/2009, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCF is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UCF is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against UCF over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARKANSAS (3 - 2) at FLORIDA (5 - 0) - 10/17/2009, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARKANSAS over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 1-0 straight up against ARKANSAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NAVY (4 - 2) at SMU (3 - 2) - 10/17/2009, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NAVY is 107-75 ATS (+24.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) against Conference USA opponents since 1992.
NAVY is 100-69 ATS (+24.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NAVY is 67-43 ATS (+19.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NAVY is 53-24 ATS (+26.6 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
NAVY is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.
NAVY is 57-25 ATS (+29.5 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
NAVY is 28-11 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NAVY is 107-75 ATS (+24.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 54-23 ATS (+28.7 Units) in road games since 1992.
NAVY is 54-23 ATS (+28.7 Units) in road lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NAVY is 1-0 against the spread versus SMU over the last 3 seasons
NAVY is 1-0 straight up against SMU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (3 - 3) at ARIZONA ST (3 - 2) - 10/17/2009, 10:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 50-81 ATS (-39.1 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA ST is 2-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA ST is 2-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UTAH (4 - 1) at UNLV (2 - 4) - 10/17/2009, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
UNLV is 47-73 ATS (-33.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
UNLV is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
UNLV is 2-0 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
UNLV is 1-1 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN JOSE ST (1 - 4) at FRESNO ST (2 - 3) - 10/17/2009, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE ST is 38-16 ATS (+20.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
FRESNO ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 26-45 ATS (-23.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
FRESNO ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
FRESNO ST is 2-0 against the spread versus SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons
FRESNO ST is 2-0 straight up against SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA LAFAYETTE (3 - 2) at W KENTUCKY (0 - 5) - 10/17/2009, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROY (3 - 2) at FLA INTERNATIONAL (1 - 4) - 10/17/2009, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 2-0 against the spread versus TROY over the last 3 seasons
TROY is 2-0 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLA ATLANTIC (0 - 4) at NORTH TEXAS (1 - 4) - 10/17/2009, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLA ATLANTIC is 2-0 against the spread versus NORTH TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
FLA ATLANTIC is 2-0 straight up against NORTH TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MISSISSIPPI ST (2 - 4) at MIDDLE TENN ST (3 - 2) - 10/17/2009, 12:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-0 against the spread versus MISSISSIPPI ST over the last 3 seasons
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-0 straight up against MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, October 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Miami Florida at Central Florida [7:30 PM ET]

Miami (-14, O/U 45.5): Talent-wise the ninth-ranked Hurricanes should cover this number. The question, though, with Miami is consistency. The Hurricanes lost by 24 points to Virginia Tech, but have beaten Florida State and Oklahoma. Sophomore quarterback Jacory Harris has had a breakout season to lead the Hurricanes. He’s thrown for 1,225 yards and 10 touchdowns. He has been picked off seven times. Miami has failed to cover nine of the last 12 times it has been a road favorite. This is a non-conference game for Miami. The Hurricanes have a big ACC matchup next week against Clemson. Miami is 1-6 against the spread when meeting Conference USA schools and 1-5 against the number off back-to-back home games. The Hurricanes failed to cover against Central Florida last year as a 16 ½-point home favorite, winning 20-14. Miami has a cluster injury problem in its defensive line with several starters doubtful.

The Under has cashed in 23 of Miami’s last 29 non-conference games.
The Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their past six non-conference matchups.

Key Injuries - Safety Randy Phillips (arm) is doubtful.
Defensive lineman Eric Moncur (groin) is doubtful.
Defensive lineman Josh Holmes (lower body) is doubtful.
Defensive lineman Marcus Forston (lower body) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 30

Central Florida: This is one of the biggest home games in the history of Central Florida. The Golden Knights were idle last week after drubbing Memphis, 32-14, two weeks ago. The Golden Knights have held 12 of their last 13 foes to 26 points or less. They are 4-0 against the spread this season. Central Florida, though, has struggled on offense ranking 80th or worse in many categories. The Golden Knights are averaging 23 points and 319 yards per game. Running back Byrnn Harvey is Central Florida’s top playmaker, averaging 107 yards rushing per contest. The Golden Knights have won 11 of their last 15 home contests. They nearly upset South Florida last year, losing in overtime. Central Florida hosted Texas two years ago and gave the Longhorns a great battle losing 35-32 as a 17-point underdog. The Golden Knights are 6-2 against the spread when facing teams with a winning record.

The Under is 10-1-1 in Central Florida’s last 12 home games.
The Under is 5-2-1 the past eight times the Golden Knights have been an underdog.

Key Injuries - Linebacker Jordan Richards (concussion) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 16 (OVER - Total of the Day)


Note: Today’s “Side of the Day” is in MLB.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------