NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (9/30 - 10/3)

[pm530]

NCAAF
Dunkel Index


Update - Friday's Dunkel with write-up

Pittsburgh at Louisville
The Panthers look to take advantage of a Louisville team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as an underdog. Pittsburgh is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-6 1/2).

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2

Game 107-108: Pittsburgh at Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 94.395; Louisville 81.560
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 13; 51
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-6 1/2); Under

Game 109-110: Utah State at BYU
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 79.005; BYU 110.976
Dunkel Line: BYU by 32; 68
Vegas Line: BYU by 23 1/2; 64
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-23 1/2); Over

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[pm530]

NCAAF


Friday, September 25

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Tips and Trends
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Pittsburgh at Louisville [ESPN2 | 8:05 PM ET]

Pittsburgh (-6.5, O/U 53.5): The Pitt Panthers are prime contenders to win the Big East, but their defense was on the field for 81 snaps during a 38-31 loss at North Carolina State last Saturday. Now the Panthers are traveling on a short week to open conference play against a Louisville team they last beat on the road in 1983. The Panthers have failed to cover the last 13 times they’ve been a road favorite of six or more points. Pittsburgh coach Dave Wannstedt is 2-7 against the spread as a favorite off a defeat. Quarterback Bill Stull has thrown six touchdowns in the last three games without being picked off. The Panthers didn’t lose two games in a row all of last season. Pittsburgh is holding foes to 2.9 yards per rush, but their pass defense has been leaky and the Panthers are averaging 84.5 yards in penalties.

Pittsburgh is 16-35 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss.
The Panthers have failed to cover in 12 of their last 17 games when favored.

Key Injuries - Linebacker Adam Gunn (ankle) is probable.
Safety Andrew Taglianetti (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 30

Louisville: The Cardinals were picked seventh in the eight-team Big East preseason poll. They are off consecutive road losses to Kentucky (31-27) and to Utah (30-14). Louisville could manage just 261 yards versus Utah, while yielding four sacks. The Cardinals’ offensive line will need to step up as Pittsburgh is tied for fourth nationally with 16 sacks. Louisville will have a size advantage up front as its offensive line averages 6-feet-4 inches, 302 pounds to Pittsburgh’s defensive line, which averages 6-foot-3, 273 pounds. Sophomore tailback Victor Anderson leads Louisville in rushing and in touchdowns with three. He’s averaging 5.2 yards per carry but was held to a career-low 22 yards on 10 carries in the loss to Utah. The Cardinals have won 55 of their last 70 games at Papa John Stadium. Coach Steve Kragthorpe is 7-3 against the number as a home underdog.

Louisville has failed to cover in 6 of its last seven games.
The Over is 6-1 in the Cardinals’ last seven games following a non-cover.

Key Injuries - None

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (OVER - Total of the Day)



Utah State at BYU [9:00 PM ET]

Utah State: After opening the season with two losses, Utah State got its first win last Saturday and did it in style, 53-34 over Southern Utah. The Aggies piled up 604 yards, their ninth-highest yardage total in team history and most since 2001. Robert Turbin rushed for 104 yards, caught four passes for 116 yards and scored three touchdowns. Quarterback Diondre Borel hit on 15-of-21 passes for 316 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. Scoring hasn’t been a problem lately for Utah State. The Aggies put up 30 points two weeks ago in a 38-30 loss at Texas A&M. Borel has completed 49-of-94 passes for 771 yards and four touchdowns. He’s also rushed for 111 yards and ran for another three touchdowns. Turbin has rushed for 373 yards during the past two weeks and caught nine passes. Utah State has covered 15 of its last 21 games.

The Aggies are 5-0-1 ATS as an underdog.
The visiting team in this series is 0-5-1 ATS.

Key Injuries - None

PROJECTED SCORE: 21(Side of the Day)

BYU (-23.5, O/U 64.5): BYU is trying to regain momentum after beating Colorado State, 42-23, last Saturday in its Mountain West Conference opener after being upset at home two weeks ago by Florida State. The Cougars have defeated Utah State nine times in a row with the average victory margin being 18.8 points. BYU bolted to a 34-0 lead in last year’s game versus Utah eventually winning 34-14. Max Hall had a huge game in that victory going 23-for-37 for 303 yards and two touchdowns. Harvey Unga became BYU’s first 100-yard rusher of the season gaining 113 yards last week. The 20th-ranked Cougars, though, were out-gained 438-373 by Colorado State and had 10 penalties totaling 117 yards. BYU has surrendered 950 yards in its last two games. The Cougars are 5-8 against the spread the past 13 times they’ve been chalk. They are 1-4 against the spread as a home favorite.

BYU has failed to cover in its last 5 October games.
The Over is 29-13-1 in the Cougars’ last 43 games following an ATS cover.

Key Injuries - Defensive lineman Russell Tialavea (knee) is out.
Cornerback Brian Logan (hand) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 44

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[pm530]

...sorry, a boo-boo! The date in prior post should obviously be: Friday, October 2
.

[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, October 3

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What bettors need to know: Prime-time NCAAF matchups
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USC Trojans at California Golden Bears (+4, 48)

A couple weeks ago USC vs Cal was penciled in not only as key PAC 10 game, but a matchup with huge BCS title implications as well. However, Washington's upset over USC two weeks ago and Cal's 42-3 blowout loss to Oregon changed all of that.

USC - Unable to Score Consistently

It’s way too early to put USC offensive assistant Jeremy Bates on the hot seat, but when Jay Leno is making jokes and refers to USC as "Unable to Score Consistently" you know you have a problem.

USC has only averaged 19.3 points in its last three games and much of the criticism has been directed towards Bates and his play calling decisions. In their 16-13 loss to Washington, the Trojans went 0-for-10 on third down conversions.

Bates seemed to open up the offense a bit against Washington State calling for QB Matt Barkley to throw the deep ball a bit more, but after scoring 20 points in the first quarter, they were shutout in the second and third.

The Trojan offense will need to put up big numbers to take the heat off of Bates. The running back corps took at hit when a freak weightlifting accident put Stafon Johnson out for the year. Joe McKnight will be the feature back with Allen Bradford in for short yardage.

The loss of Johnson will serve as a rallying point for the team and super talented McKnight should be able to get into more of a rhythm with the extra carries.

The Riley Factor

Last week, the Golden Bears came into Oregon as 5.5-point favorites and with momentum on their side. At 3-0 they were seen as national title contenders and running back Jahvid Best was put into the Heisman race with a 131-yard, five-touchdown performance on the road against Minnesota.

The Oregon Ducks, however, managed to contain Best by crowding the line of scrimmage, with the Junior rushing for only 55 yards. The Golden Bears offensive line did little to keep them honest as QB Kevin Riley failed to generate any sort of threat in the air.

Cal does not have the benefit of playing a cupcake following a huge loss and will have to face a Trojan defense that has been solid averaging only 10 points against them per game. The Trojans D will mimic the Ducks defensive gameplan, meaning that Riley will have to come up with huge plays and improve upon his 12-31 123 yard performance from last week, if the Bears are to keep this close.

Line and Trends

The line currently sits between -4.5 and -5 in favor of USC after opening at -6. The Trojans are 1-3 ATS but this is the lowest spread that USC has had to deal with

The spread for last year's contest was -22 for USC but it failed to cover winning only 17-3. The Trojans dealt with single digits the previous two years, having covered -6 in 2006 by winning 23-9 and covering the 7-point spread in 2007 with a 24-17 victory at Berkeley.

The total for the game is in the 46.5 to 47.5 range. Last year's total was about the same at 47.5. The previous five matchups have gone under and the last time it went over was in 2003, which was also the last time that the Golden Bears won. The total was at 55 and USC loss 34-31

Moneyline for USC is -190, while the Golden Bears are at +165.

Oklahoma Sooners at Miami Hurricanes (+7.5, 51.5)

The last time these two met was in 2007, when Oklahoma blew out Miami 51-13. However, this is a new Hurricane team under a renaissance and third-year coach Randy Shannon hopes that Saturday's tilt resembles the 1988 version of this series, where they played for the National title with Miami winning 20-14

In with Jones

The Sooners began the season as 22-point favorites against BYU, but they not only ended up losing the game, they loss QB Sam Bradford as well. The contest in Miami provides their first true challenge since the defeat after having rolled by Idaho State and Tulsa by a combined score of 109-0.

As of press time, redshirt freshman Landry Jones was scheduled to start with Bradford still experiencing pain in shoulder. Jones was a high profile recruit out of New Mexico and he has done quite nicely replacing the Heisman winner. Jones has a 60.5 percent completion rate and has already thrown for 673 yards and nine TDs. Six of those came last week against Tulsa. He also has a mustache that rivals fellow Big 12 QB Taylor Potts.

However, this will be Jones's first big test on the road and he will have to deal with a loud crowd a rowdy Hurricane crowd

He won't have to do it alone though, as the Sooners have a wealth of talent at running back that looks to take advantage of a Hurricane defense that has had trouble against the run. In last week's loss to Virginia Tech, the Hokies threw for only 98 yards but rushed for 272 in a 31-7 victory over Miami.

Sooner Shutdown

Things don't get easier for Miami and QB Jacory Harris on the offensive side. The Sooners have not given up a point since the BYU game and were most impressive shutting down a Tulsa team averaged 565 yards and 47.4 points in offense last year.

The Hurricanes have a brutal schedule so far, having gone up against Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech, so don't expect them to be intimidated

Harris and the rest of the Miami team has got a little bit of that old Hurricane swagger back and motivation from last week's loss and home-field advantage should present the Sooner defense with their toughest challenge yet.

But if Miami is to stay in this game they will have to establish the run. In last week's 31-7 loss to Virginia Tech, the running game was non-existent with Miami rushing 34 times for just 59 yards. Oklahoma's secondary is too talented to have Harris carry the offense all on his own.

Line and Trends

There is value in the line for those who think this will be a close game, with the Sooners favored by 7.5 points. Some books are going as high as -8.5. But Oklahoma has had no problem covering the spread the last two years, having gone 10-3 ATS last year and 2-1 this year. This is also the first time this year that the Sooners will be dealing with a single digit spread.

The total is between 49 and 50. Miami has only gone over once this year, while Oklahoma's stellar defense has kept it under in all three games. The game that went over was Miami's only competitive versus Florida State.

Oklahoma to win straight up comes at an expensive -300, while the Hurricanes sit at +250


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel Update


Saturday, October 3

Oklahoma at Miami (FL)
The Sooners look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games as a road favorite. Oklahoma is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Sooners favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-7).

[Udog]

NCAAF


Saturday, October 3

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Tips and Trends
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Arkansas vs. Texas A&M at Arlington [7:30 PM ET]

Arkansas (-1.5, O/U 65.5): The Razorbacks are 1-2 compared to Texas A&M’s 3-0, but early money has pushed the opening number of pick to Arkansas being the favorite. Bettors appreciate Arkansas’ tough schedule compared to the Aggies’ much easier September slate of opponents. The Razorbacks opened with a 48-10 win against Missouri State, a non-board team. Arkansas then lost to Georgia, 52-41, and last week to powerhouse SEC rival Alabama, 35-7. Big plays have hurt the Razorbacks. They’ve surrendered six scoring plays of more than 40 yards in their last two games. The Razorbacks have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 non-conference matchups. They also are 0-4 against the number in their past four neutral sites games with this matchup being held at the Dallas Cowboys new stadium in Arlington, Texas. Arkansas, though, has a dangerous offense led by quarterback Ryan Mallet, who has passed for 877 yards and seven touchdowns.

The Over has cashed 10 of the past 14 times in Arkansas’ last 14 non-conference games.
The Over is 6-0 the last six times Arkansas has been favored.

Key Injuries - Wide receiver London Crawford (collarbone) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 34 (Side of the Day)

Texas A&M: The Aggies are unbeaten, but their wins have come across less-than-powerful foes New Mexico, Utah State and Alabama-Birmingham. All three of these games were at home for Texas A&M in College Station. Early money has come against the Aggies with the belief being Arkansas is the superior team from the superior conference. Texas A&M is 2-7 against the spread the past nine times it has been an underdog. The Aggies also are 2-9 against the spread following a victory. The Aggies want to prove their undefeated record isn’t bogus. They lead the nation in total offense averaging 574.3 yards. None of their previous opponents have come close to stopping their hurry-up, spread offense that has resulted in an average of 45 points per contest. Quarterback Jerrod Johnson has accounted for 13 touchdowns, highest in the country. He’s thrown for nine scores and run for four more touchdowns.

The Over is 11-4-1 in Texas A&M’s last 16 non-conference matchups.
The Over has cashed in 8 of the Aggies’ last 11 games.

Key Injuries - Offensive lineman Lee Grimes (ribs) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 32


USC at California [ABC | 8:00 PM ET]

USC(-4, O/U 48): Injuries on offense and a stunning loss to Pac-10 foe Washington have taken a lot of the luster off Southern Cal. The Trojans have been bet down from being an opening 6 ½-point favorite. Stafon Johnson, the Trojans’ leading rusher from a year ago, suffered a crushed neck and larynx after a weight room accident. Freshman quarterback Matt Barkley is dealing with pain in his right shoulder, although his velocity seemed good in practice. USC is averaging 28.5 points per game, 57th in the country. The Trojans’ third-down conversion rate is just 25 percent, worst in the Pac-10. USC, though, ranks among the top six nationally in total defense, scoring defense and tackles for losses and sacks. USC held Cal’s star running back, Jahvid Best, to 30 yards rushing last season. USC has covered 14 of the past 20 times when facing a team with a winning record.

The Trojans are 14-3 ATS when favored between 3 ½ and 10 points.
USC is 22-4-1 to the Under in its past 27 Pac-10 matchups.

Key Injuries - Running back Stafon Johnson (neck) is out.
Linebacker Malcom Smith (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 26

California: The Golden Bears are trying to change a reputation for blowing crucial games while on the cusp of making a national statement. That happened again last week when Cal’s six-game winning streak came to a screeching halt with a shocking 42-3 road loss to Oregon, leaving bettors to wonder if the Golden Bears suffered a huge loss of confidence. Cal was averaging 48.7 points in winning its first three games versus Maryland, Eastern Washington and Minnesota. Heisman Trophy candidate tailback Jahvid Best managed just 55 yards against the Ducks last week. Southern Cal is giving up only 1.7 yards per rush. Quarterback Kevin Riley is completing 57 percent of his passes for five touchdowns and no interceptions. The Golden Bears were 5-0 in conference home games last year, giving up an average of 14.6 points in those contests. Cal has covered 10 of its last 11 home games.

The Under has cashed 8 of the last nine times Cal has been an underdog.
The Under is 5-0 in the past five meetings between the two schools.

Key Injuries - Wide receiver Nyan Boateng (foot) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 22 (UNDER - Total of the Day)


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