Friday Trends and Indexes 9/25 (MLB, WNBA, CFL, Misc.)

[pm530]

WNBA
Dunkel Index


Los Angeles at Phoenix
The Mercury look to take advantage of an LA team that is 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Phoenix is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 25

Game 605-606: Detroit at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 112.461; Indiana 113.308
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 140
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 5; 144
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+5); Under

Game 607-608: Los Angeles at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 115.061; Phoenix 120.806
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 6; 179 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 3 1/2; 181 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-3 1/2); Under

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WNBA
Long Sheet

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Friday, September 25
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DETROIT (21 - 16) at INDIANA (24 - 13) - 9/25/2009, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 39-59 ATS (-25.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15+ games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 9-9 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 11-7 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LOS ANGELES (20 - 18) at PHOENIX (26 - 12) - 9/25/2009, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 27-16 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 127-89 ATS (+29.1 Units) in home games since 1997.
PHOENIX is 79-55 ATS (+18.5 Units) in August or September games since 1997.
PHOENIX is 81-54 ATS (+21.6 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1997.
PHOENIX is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) after a division game this season.
PHOENIX is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 21-13 ATS (+6.7 Units) after allowing 75 points or more this season.
PHOENIX is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) after scoring 75 points or more this season.
PHOENIX is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOS ANGELES is 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) in August or September games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after a division game this season.
LOS ANGELES is 29-11 ATS (+16.9 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 7-5 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 8-4 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

CFL
Dunkel Index


Montreal at Hamilton
The Alouettes look to build on their 6-2 ATS record in their last 8 meetings in Hamilton. Montreal is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-4). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 25

Game 471-472: Montreal at Hamilton
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 118.649; Hamilton 111.292
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 7 1/2; 47 1/2
Vegas Line: Montreal by 4; 49
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-4); Under

Game 473-474: BC at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: BC 109.608; Calgary 113.360
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 3 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Calgary by 8; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BC (+8); Over


SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 26

Game 475-476: Saskatchewan at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 112.096; Edmonton 114.301
Dunkel Line: Edmonton by 2; 60
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 4; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+4); Over

Game 477-478: Toronto at Winnipeg
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 101.776; Winnipeg 108.939
Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 7; 41
Vegas Line: Pick; 44
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg; Under

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CFL
Long Sheet


Week 13

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Friday, September 25
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MONTREAL (9 - 2) at HAMILTON (6 - 5) - 9/25/2009, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 15 over the last 3 seasons.
MONTREAL is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in road games when playing on a Friday since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 4-4 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 7-1 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BRITISH COLUMBIA (5 - 6) at CALGARY (6 - 5) - 9/25/2009, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 5-4 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 5-3 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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Saturday, September 26
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SASKATCHEWAN (6 - 5) at EDMONTON (6 - 5) - 9/26/2009, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 54-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 133-101 ATS (+21.9 Units) in all games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 133-101 ATS (+21.9 Units) in all lined games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 89-54 ATS (+29.6 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 78-49 ATS (+24.1 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-4 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-4 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (3 - 8) at WINNIPEG (3 - 8) - 9/26/2009, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
WINNIPEG is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996.
TORONTO is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in weeks 10 through 15 since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 6-4 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 5-5 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CFL
Write-up


Week 13 CFL games

Friday, September 25

Montreal (9-2) @ Hamilton (7-4)-- Montreal is 3-2 on road, 2-2 as fave at home, winning by 33-13-27 points. TiCats covered nine of its last 10 games, winning last three by 19-3-7 points; they lost 21-8 at Montreal (+14) in Week 4, giving up 468 yards to Alouettes. Hamilton won last five home games by 12-12-7-19-7 points; they covered last seven games as the dog. Alouettes Under is 7-2 in last nine Montreal games.

BC Lions (5-6) @ Calgary (6-5)-- Stampeders crushed BC 48-10 back in Week 4, running ball for 219 yards with four takeaways. Lions are 4-1 vs spread as underdog this year, 2-0 on road- they're 2-3 on road, losing by 4-12-4 points. Seven of last eight Lion games stayed under the total. Stamps won three of last four games; they won three of last four home games (wins by 35-8-24) but covered just one of last six as a favorite.


Saturday, September 26

Saskatchewan (6-5) @ Edmonton (6-5)-- Eskimos beat Roughriders both meetings in Regina (38-33/31-27); they outgained Riders 410-285 a week ago, Eskimos' fourth win in last five games- they're 1-4 vs spread as the favorite this year, 1-3 at home, where their home wins are by 2-14-1-3 points. Riders are 4-1 vs spread on road, 5-2 vs spread as the underdog. Four of last five games for both sides went over the total.

Toronto (2-9) @ Winnipeg (3-8)-- Road teams won both previous games with Argos (+4) winning 19-5 in Manitoba in Week 4, then losing 13-12 to the Bombers at home the next week (-5.5), first of seven consecutive losses for Toronto, which is 2-4 on the road, losing by 35-25-19-6 pts. Bombers lost last three games, by 15-45-19 points, turning ball over 16 times (-14 TO ratio). Seven of last nine Argo games stayed under total.

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CFL


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Trend Report
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Friday, September 25

7:00 PM
MONTREAL vs. HAMILTON
Montreal is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Montreal is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Hamilton is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Hamilton is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games

10:00 PM
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. CALGARY
British Columbia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
British Columbia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Calgary is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against British Columbia
Calgary is 4-1-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against British Columbia


Saturday, September 26

6:00 PM
SASKATCHEWAN vs. EDMONTON
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Saskatchewan's last 8 games when playing Edmonton
Saskatchewan is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games at home

9:00 PM
TORONTO vs. WINNIPEG
Toronto is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Winnipeg is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Winnipeg is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

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CFL


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Canadian bacon: CFL Week 13 preview and picks
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Friday, September 25

Montreal Alouettes at Hamilton Tiger Cats (+4, 50)

The Alouettes could virtually clinch the East Conference title with this game. They lead in almost every stat category in the CFL. They added strong Canadian content in a trade with Winnipeg that sent QB Ricky Santos to the Bombers in return of Riall Johnson and Shawn Mayne, two experienced Canadian DB’s. But they will face a very resilient team in Hamilton and they are very well aware of this fact. They also had a gruesome eight-hour train-bus journey to Hamilton the day before the game. The Tiger Cats have been pretty solid at home where they display a 5-1 record. And they did beat the Grey Cup Champions, the Calgary Stampeders the previous week, therefore boosting their confidence. Montreal his coming in after a very short week and that could be the difference. That is the theory. Now, for the facts: Prechea Rodriguez will be out because of the flu and he won’t be the only one. The Alouettes are in town with the intention of making a statement to all of the CFL.

Pick: Hamilton +4


B.C. Lions vs Calgary Stampeders (-8, 54.5)

The B.C. Lions are coming to Calgary hoping to take advantage of two rookie CFL defensive players. You would think that a pair like Geroy Simpson and Paris Jackson would lick their chops hoping for a field day. Think again. Defensive backs John Eubanks and Demetrice Webb will most likely fit in nicely. Eubanks did see the likes of Santana Moss and Keenan McCardell while he was with the Washington Redskins. Webb had the opportunity in his career to matchup with guys named Plaxico Burress and Reggie Williams. These are not really new kids on the block. Also take into consideration that All-Star cornerback Brandon Browner will be back into action for the Stamps. But no one should forget that JoJuan Armour is back in town to face a team that dumped him for “excessive aggressiveness”. Henry Burris should take notice. And Buck Pierce now has a certain Casey Printers to compete with for the volatile Lions starting QB spot. The Lions haven’t defeated the Stampeders since the very last game of the 2007 regular season. This being said, the game will be played in Calgary and that should make all the difference in the world.

Pick: Calgary -8



Saturday, September 26

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Edmonton Eskimos (-3.5, 58.5)

Ricky Ray is on a mission. He has thrown for 774 yards with five touchdowns in his last three games. At some point he completed 22 passes in a row. Arkee Whitlock was also impressive. So was Fred Stamps. Each one of them scored touchdowns. But Darian Durant passed for nearly 550 yards without an interception last week. The Riders where also solid on special teams. The Eskimos new offensive coordinator Kevin Strasser seems to have found the solutions to improve an otherwise anaemic offence. That doesn’t seem to impress Riders QB Darian Durant who recently said, “We know what they’re going to do.” Is Edmonton that predictable? I guess we shall see. The Eskimos already won the first two games in the series. But will that be enough?

Pick: Eskimos -3.5


Toronto Argonauts at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-1, 44)

The Blue Bombers are going nowhere. The recent trades they made suggest they are already thinking of next year or maybe the next decade. Cody Pickett, the Argos QB, has a once-in-lifetime opportunity to prove he belongs as a starter in the CFL. He his facing a team in total disarray and can’t be allowed to fail in such a situation. The Blue Bombers are not without talent but there are still a lot of question marks about their coaching. Mike Kelly is definitely not the most popular guy in Winnipeg and, honestly, fans are still surprised that he hasn’t lost his job yet. Of course, they are also very well aware that the Blue Bombers can’t really afford to pay two salaries to former coaches. We can tell you from the start, that whichever coach comes on the losing end of this game will probably lose their job sooner than later.

Pick: Argonauts +1

Last Week 2-2, season 25-19

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[pm530]

Len’s Top Five


Friday, September 25

Len's Top 5

TGIF everyone, here's my Top 5 for September 25, 2009 from Len Berman Sports.

1. Quick Hits

* The Yankees host Boston for 3 games starting tonight. The Yanks lead the Red Sox by 5 1/2 games for the American League East.

* Sean O'Hair leads Tiger Woods by one shot after the first round of the Tour Championship in Atlanta.

* Wayne Gretzky has resigned as Phoenix Coyotes coach.

* The big guy will be on the move. Reports are circulating that President Obama will head to Copenhagen next week to support Chicago's bid for the 2016 Olympics.

* Lions and Raiders fans get spared! There will be no television on Sunday because the games didn't sell out.


2. No Mercy!

The vote was a landslide. Top 5 readers didn't buy for a second the argument from subscriber Jimmy C., a Manhattan court officer, that a $30 holster could have saved Plaxico Burress and everyone else a lot of trouble.
The consensus opinion: "this wasn't about a $30 holster, it was about an unlicensed gun in NYC." As Jim S. pointed out, even if he had a holster, he was still breaking the law. As for feeling sorry for Burress, David R. put the kibosh on that. "Should we feel sorry for Milton Bradley, too? And Vick? And the rest of these athletes who think the rules of society only apply to others? I think not."

3. Fantasy Football

Under the heading of "why didn't I think of that" there's a fantasy football league for "off the field" infractions. A web designer in Tennessee came up with the idea. If your player insults a former teammate (Terrell Owens and Tony Romo for example) you get 30 points. If your player leads police on a high speed chase, that's worth 175 points. When three players announced they were donating their brains to science, there wasn't a category for that. According to the Wall Street Journal the web designer figured it was worth 45 points anyway. You can check it out at fantasyunsports.

4. Friday Mailbag

When D.S. wrote that Derek Jeter was overrated and inflated by the New York Media, he touched off a firestorm.
W.S. wrote "This fan sounds JEALOUS... if baseball had more Jeters, the game and the nation, would be the better for it.

J.D. chimed in: "The reality is, D.S. is a Yankee Hater and that’s fine. If D.S. is a Met fan I understand. If D.S. is a Boston fan I understand. If D.S. is a sports fan then shame on him or her.

S.F. wrote: "In a sports world filled with greed, me-attitude and self-promo athletes - it's refreshing to see an athlete like Derek Jeter conduct himself in a professional manner. Jeter is a prime example of how important it is to have two stable parents at home and to respect others, play hard and appreciate your coaches."

H.N. writes: "Tell D.S. that if Jeter played in K.C. or Milwaukee, without the pressure of being a Yankee and under the gun of N.Y. media he probably would have 4000 hits by now."

And M.M. wrote: "I'm glad D.S. is not running my company. His comments demonstrated to me that he is not the sharpest knife in the drawer."
Editor's Note: Not one of you agreed with D.S.

As for the "Jewish Jordan" Tamir Goldman retiring from basketball after playing at Towson and in the Israeli basketball league, Dr. B. twittered me: "I went to Towson. Jewish Jordan looked like Howdy Doody in a yarmulke."
Editor's Note: Always nice to hear from the peanut gallery.

5. Genius of the Week

A Green Bay man shot his cousin while hunting last Sunday. He thought his cousin was a squirrel. The cousin is fine. But this Sunday, instead of hunting, just watch the Packers game like everyone else does in Green Bay. He thought he was a squirrel?

Happy Birthday: Sports Illustrated swimsuit model Cheryl Tiegs. 62.
Bonus Birthdays: Actress Catherine Zeta-Jones. 40. And her husband Michael Douglas. 65.

Today in Sports: N.Y. Met Rusty Staub joins Ty Cobb as the only major leaguers to hit home runs as teenagers and again in their 40's. 1984.
Bonus Event: One of the few dances I can actually do, Chubby Checker's "The Twist" hits #1. 1960.

The Top 5 will resume Tuesday, September 29th.

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