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NCAAF
Sunday, September 6
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Tips and Trends
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Colorado State at Colorado [7:00 PM ET]
Colorado State: The Rams won more games in 2008 than they had during the two previous seasons combined. Fifth-year senior Grant Stucker is the new starting quarterback replacing the departed Bill Farris, who threw for 2,934 yards and 19 touchdowns last year. Stucker has minimal experience, but the Rams have the most experienced offensive line in the country with their senior-laden first-unit having had 125 combined starts. Colorado State, though, is missing five of its seven defensive front starters from a year ago. Colorado won last year’s game at neutral site Denver, 38-17. It was the most lopsided defeat in the series in the past seven years. The biggest margin of victory during the previous four years had been by four points. The underdog has covered 10 of the last 13 in the series. The Rams are 6-2 against the spread during the past eight years in their first road game.
The Over has cashed in 6 of the Rams’ last seven games.
Key Injuries - Guard Shelley Smith (ankle) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 20
Colorado (-10, O/U 51.5): Colorado is a disappointing 13-24 during the three years former Boise State coach Dan Hawkins has been in charge of the program. The Buffaloes suffered 11 season-ending injuries during a disappointing 5-7 season last year. Colorado covered just two of its last nine games. Colorado has won 16 of 21 times in this rivalry, which began in 1983. However, the Buffaloes are 8-12-1 against the number. Colorado is 2-10 against the spread as a non-conference home favorite of less than 20 points. Home field advantage definitely should help for this in-state rivalry. The Buffaloes have a deep rushing attack headed by Darrell Scott. They’ll try to exploit a weak Colorado State run defense that gave up an average of 185 yards rushing per game last year and a 5.2 yards per carry. The key for Colorado is how its young defensive line fares against Colorado’s State experienced offensive line.
The Under is 11-3 in Colorado’s last 14 non-conference outings.
Key Injuries - Defensive end Nick Kasa (knee) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 31(Side of the Day)
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers [ESPN | 8:05 PM ET]
Padres: The Padres have been playing good ball, winning eight of their last 11. However, they are 2-11 in their last 13 meetings at Dodger Stadium. San Diego has been hitting well away from Petco Park batting above .300 in team batting average in its last 16 away contests. Right-handed starter Tim Stauffer has performed better than his 3-6 record. Stauffer has won his past two starts and has a 3.76 ERA on the season. The Padres have scored four or less runs for him in nine of his last 11 starts. Stauffer displayed good life on his fastball in his last outing, a 3-1 victory against Washington last Monday. Stauffer gave up one run in 6 2/3 innings with five strikeouts. It was the first time in a month Stauffer had worked past five innings. He has a 4.35 ERA in his last six road starts.
San Diego is 14-44 in its last 58 road games versus a team with a winning mark.
San Diego is 2-11 in its last 13 National League West games.
Key Injuries - Kyle Blanks (foot) is on the DL.
PROJECTED SCORE: 3
Dodgers (-$2.10, O/U 8.5 under -$1.15): Los Angeles is 66-30 in its last 96 games as a home favorite. The Dodgers have gone over in nine of their last 12 home games versus the Padres. Los Angeles is 8-4 in its last 12 Sunday contests. Manny Ramirez is batting just .239 in his last 20 games after getting Saturday night off. Hiroki Kuroda (5-5, 4.08 ERA) says he is fine to make his first start since suffering a concussion after being hit in the head by a line drive at Arizona on Aug. 15. Kuroda allowed one unearned run in five innings of a minor league rehab start. Kuroda is 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA during his major league career in September. He is just 2-6 when pitching on Sunday, though. The under has cashed in 13 of the last 17 games when the Dodgers have faced a right-handed starter.
The Under is 19-8-2 in the Dodgers’ past 29 games.
Key Injuries - Casey Blake is day-to-day with tightness in his hamstring.
PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
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NCAAF
Write-up
Sunday's games
Ole Miss won last four games in what is regional rivalry with Memphis; they won 41-24 LY in Nutt's first year with Rebels- previous three wins were all by four or less points. Underdog is 20-10-1 vs spread in last 31 Ole Miss road games; Rebels are 6-13 in last 19 games as favorite, 2-8-1 in last eleven as a road favorite. Tigers are 10-5 as home dog, but they've lost four starters from LY's offensive line. Ole Miss has 16 starters back eight on both sides of ball. Both teams have QB with experience.
Colorado-Colorado State game is usually in Denver, but they're playing in Boulder this year, where State lost last three visits by 3-3-10 points. Rams have 129 starts back on their offensive line, most of any team in country, but they're breaking in new QB. Buffs have coach's son back for his third year as starting QB- they've won five of last six games against State, but four of the five wins were by seven or less points. Underdogs are 7-3 vs spread in series, Buffs have nine of their top 10 back on OL.
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NCAAF
Sunday, September 6
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What Bettors Need to Know
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Game: No. 10 Mississippi Rebels at Memphis Tigers (+17.5, 54.5)
Line Movement
The line opened at 17 at most sportsbooks before falling to 16 a week before the game. But as the game approached the line climbed back to 17, and even 18 at some places. The total has stayed steady at 54.5.
Weather
The weather could be a factor as scattered thunderstorms and plenty of rain is expected during the day at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium.
Recent series
It has been all Ole Miss recently in this series with the Rebels winning eight of 10 dating back to 1995. This is also the 10th time the SEC school is the favorite in the last 11 head-to-head matchups. The over is 4-2-1 in recent meetings between Ole Miss and Memphis.
Who can we trust?
Football and basketball at Memphis have next to nothing in common. The football team coasts season to season, occasionally posting enough wins to reach a bowl game that it usually loses. Marquee wins are not a staple of this program.
Then there is Ole Miss. Everybody remembers the Rebels historic upset at Florida in the swamp as 23-point underdogs last season. What most people forget is what happened the week before and the week after that. Ole Miss lost straight up at home against Vanderbilt before the Florida upset and at home against South Carolina the week after the upset. But the season ended on a high note for Ole Miss supporters with the program winning 31-13 at LSU in late November and then 47-34 over a hot Texas Tech team in the Cotton Bowl.
Trends
While Memphis is 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in its last six meetings against Ole Miss, a more pertinent trend involves what Ole Miss has been able to do away from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. In the Rebels last eight games on the road or at a neutral site they are 7-1 ATS, including the previously mentioned program-changing wins against Florida, LSU and Texas Tech.
Houston, we have progress
After being jettisoned out of Arkansas, Houston Nutt has turned Ole Miss around almost overnight. The results have been seen by Rebel fans and Rebel bettors alike. After posting dismal straight up (SU) records of 4-8 and 3-9 in 2006 and 07, and ATS records of 5-4 and 6-5, respectively, the Rebels turned things around in a hurry last season going 9-4 SU and 9-3 ATS.
Key Players
Ole Miss QB Jevan Sneed
The 6-foot-3, 215 pound junior originally committed to Florida, then enrolled at Texas where he played one season and then last season he found himself at Ole Miss. It’s funny how things worked out for all the parties involved. Tim Tebow has become a legend in Florida, Colt McCoy is perhaps the top passer in the country now at Texas and Snead finds himself on the cusp of stardom in Oxford, Mississippi. He passed for 2,762 yards last season and threw 26 touchdowns. He will be a game-changer this season and perhaps a Heisman contender if Ole Miss can take care of business in the SEC.
Memphis RB Curtis Steele
Las Vegas is expecting a shootout and for the Tigers to hold up their end of the bargain Steele, a former JUCO transfer and 1,223-yard rusher a year ago, needs to pile up the yards and help out the passing game. He averaged an impressive 5.6-yard per carry but his offensive line this year is suspect.
Game: Colorado State Rams at Colorado Buffaloes (-10, 51)
All-time series
Since the Rocky Mountain Showdown began in 1893 between Colorado and Colorado State, it has been all Buffaloes, who own a 58-19-2 series record against their in-state rivals. Colorado State has held its own recently, winning four of the last 10 games.
Two teams, two directions
Colorado finished last season going down in flames, losing seven of its last nine with plenty of blowouts mixed in. There was no bowl game to speak of for the five-win Buffs. On the other side of the state, Colorado State was busy winning three of its last four to reach the New Mexico Bowl, which it also won, 40-35, over Fresno State.
Home, sweet home
The Showdown has been played at a neutral site for most of the past two decades but this year it takes a break from INVESCO Field at Mile High and returns to Colorado’s home field, Folsom Field.
The last time the game was played at Folsom, in 2004 and 2005, Colorado won both games but the Rams more than held their own, losing by just a field goal each game and covering the spread both times.
Trends
Staying on the Folsom Field thought, the Rams have been a solid bet on enemy soil. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games at Colorado. Overall the underdog has fared well in this series, going 10-3 ATS in the last 13 showdowns.
The over has hit in nine out of 13 meetings between these two teams.
Key Players
Colorado RB Darrell Scott
Scott, coach Dan Hawkins’ top recruit a year ago, is poised to take over as the feature back in the Buffs backfield. A sophomore out of Tallahassee, Florida, Scott rushed for 339 yards on 88 carries last season when Rodney Stewart was receiving the bulk of the carries. The passing game is suspect but the offensive line is a team strength. That should set up a big year for the tailback this season.
Colorado State WRs Rashaun Greer and Dion Morton
Quarterback Billy Farris is gone as is leading rusher Gartrell Johnson III. The progression of the offense will occur at a much faster pace if playmakers Greer and Morton step up and improve on their numbers from last season.
Greer hauled in 63 passes for 1,114 yards and Morton was a quarterback’s best friend in the red zone, leading the team with 10 touchdown receptions. Greer burst on the scene last season in his debut against Colorado with eight catches for 70 yards. Against the Buffs Morton caught four passes for 53 yards and a touchdown.
Weather
No precipitation is expected and the temperature will be around 55 degrees.
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NCAAF
Monday, September 6
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Game of the day - Hurricanes at Seminoles
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Miami Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles (-6.5, 46.5)
Stopping the Florida State run
The Seminoles had 283 net rush yards in last year’s game, with quarterback Christian Ponder responsible for 147 of those. Miami had no answer for the speed option. Florida State wasn’t the only team that gave the Canes trouble. At the end of last season they gave up 472 yards against Georgia Tech and 219 versus N.C. State.
New defensive coordinator John Lovett is aware of this weakness. Look for Miami to put eight people in the box in most situations.
Ponder vs. Harris
Last year Christian Ponder threw for 14 TDs and 13 INTs and had to fight for the starting position. Ponder should be aided by an offensive line intact from last season. The unit’s experience as well as Ponder’s own from a year ago, should help the FSU offense. Offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher is expecting Miami to focus on stopping the run, so we may see more passing from Ponder than usual.
Jacory Harris split duties under center as a true freshman last year. He enters this year as the starter, but he’ll have to master new offensive coordinator Mark Whipple’s pro style attack.
Graig Cooper and Javarris James will lead the rushing attack, but expect many three and four receiver sets from Miami.
Miami quick hits
- Depth at QB is thin with Robert Mavre, Taylor Cook, and Cannon Smith all transferring. That leaves true freshman A.J. Highsmith as the lone scholarship backup.
- Starters CB Ryan Hill and SS Vaughn Telemaque suffered injuries in Saturday's practice and are not expected to play on Monday.
- Hurricanes have had 4 straight losing seasons ATS
Florida State quick bits
-Walk on Craig Yarborough is listed to start at Left End
-True freshman Dustin Hopkins, the No. 1 kicker out of high school, is listed as the starter. He hit a 65 yard FG in H.S.
-Seven true freshman are listed in either the first or second team in the pre-game depth chart that was released last Monday.
Line movement
The line opened up with Florida favored by 4 points. It’s since moved to -6 or -6.5 at most books. The total opened at 48.5 and is hovering between 46.5 and 47.
Trends
The spread was fairly sharp last year with Florida State covering by just three points. They were 1-point underdogs and won 41-39. The dog has covered the number in the last seven meetings.
The total has gone over the last two meetings and by a significant amount. The score went over by 39.5 points last year and 23.5 points in 2007.
Miami leads the series 30-23 overall, but is 2-3 in the last five matchups.
Weather
Monday night forecast expects lows around 66 with northeast winds around five mph. The field could be wet by kickoff with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
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NCAAF
Write-up
Monday's games
Home side won three of four Cincinnati-Rutgers games; Bearcats won last visit here 28-23 (+4) two years ago. Dog covered three of those four games. Cincy lost ten starters on defense, but their top four RB are back and they have three starters back on OL. Rutgers has all five starters on OL and top four RB back, but they're breaking in new QB. Knights are 14-9 vs spread in last 23 home games. Bearcats are 5-2-1 against spread in their last eight games as a road underdog- they've got a senior QB.
Underdogs covered last four Miami-Florida State games, with road team winning the last three- four of last five series games were decided by six or less points. Seminoles are 7-13 as a home favorite since '05 (16-26 as a favorite since '04). FSU has all of its five starters back on OL, but none of them are seniors. Miami has a soph QB and only one backup, so if the starter gets hurt, they're screwed. Miami covered eight of last 21 on road and is 4-6 vs spread in its last ten games as the underdog.
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NCAAF
Monday, September 7
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Tips and Trends
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Miami of Florida at Florida State [ESPN | 8:00 PM ET]
Miami: The Hurricanes are a mystery team heading into the season with new offensive (Mark Whipple) and defensive (John Lovett) coordinators, new schemes and new game plans. Miami is counting on sophomore quarterback Jacory Harris, who threw for 1,195 yards and 12 touchdowns last season splitting time with Robert Marve. The Hurricanes have two good running backs in Graig Cooper and Javarris James. They helped the Hurricanes average 179 yards on the ground in 2008. Miami has lost 11 of its last 13 games to ranked opponents. The Hurricanes are 7-18-1 against the spread in their last 26 ACC contests. This has been an underdog series, though. The ‘dog has won straight-up during five of the past six meetings, including the previous four. Miami has a large number of injuries on defense with linemen Eric Moncur and Justin Mincey out along with defensive backs Ryan Hill and Vaughn Telemaque
The Under is 13-5 in Miami’s last 18 September games.
Key Injuries - Defensive linemen Eric Moncur (groin) and Justin Mincey (knee) are out.
Defensive backs Vaughn Telemaque (shoulder) and Ryan Hill (shoulder) also are out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 21 (Side of the Day)
Florida State (-6.5, O/U 47): The 18th-ranked Seminoles improved on their record for the first time in five years last season. Under 79-year-old Bobby Bowden, the Seminoles have the longest bowl streak going at 27 straight games. Led by All-American guard Rodney Hudson, Florida State has its entire starting offensive line back despite not having a senior starter. All together, the Seminoles have eight returning starters from an offense that ranked No. 1 in the ACC in scoring and No. 2 in total yards. Returning junior quarterback Christian Ponder threw for 159 yards and rushed for 144 in Florida State’s 41-39 win at Miami last October. Ponder was up-and-down last season ranking sixth in the conference in passing efficiency, but says he’s far more confident this year. “I think it will be a totally different year,” he said. Sophomore Jermaine Thomas is expected to be the main ball-carrier after averaging 7.0 yards last season.
The Over is 5-1 in Florida State’s last six home games.
Key Injuries - Linebacker Vince Williams (back) is out.
Safety Terrance Parks (hamstring) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 26
Total of the Day is in MLB today.
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