NFL Goodies

[dave T]

Dave -

have you found any significant diffence in either your power rankings or oypp results by breaking them down into home and away? looking at last years teams there were some with a pretty big difference.

Bill

No doubt there's significant difference. If I were coming at it solely from a stats standpoint, I would be forced to factor in home/road as well as div/non to get an accurate guage. Also would have to factor in strength of schedule.

Because most of this stuff is technical in nature, I'm using an overall PR for rankings. Otherwise, I would have to wait too late in the season to get enough home games under the belt, and road games, for each team, before I could begin the cause and effect process.

Maybe somewhere down the road, I could experiment with that; but to be honest, this is a monster of a program as it is. I've got a lot of months writing it and researching various queries.

I've still got more to post when I can. But yeah, you're exactly right. If you're wanting the most accurate PR's and OYPP's to use for capping, in and of themselves, you gotta' subdivide it and weight it in...

dt

[dave T]

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Teams that win by 18 or more points and their net yardage is 100 or more yards greater than their season average are 28-40 ATS. Teams that do exactly the opposite are 44-25 ATS.

Regarding the former, there are no significant breakdowns, and at 59% when going against these teams, and a sampling of 68, I'm gonna pass. However, it is a nice compliment to:

Teams that increase 3> spots in PR and OYPP. When combining them, teams are only 2-16 ATS. Road dogs get blown out, going 0-5 ATS while missing the spread by an average or 17.70 pts per game.

Regarding the latter, which is a solid 44-25 ATS, there are a lot of breakdowns which catch the eye. So I'll have to come back with more cross references to insolate what works the best.

Some of the more notable initial breakdowns include:

30-11 ATS at home
33-10 ATS if you discard teams that are in the Bottom 6 in both PR and OYYP.
23-3 ATS if the team is +/- 10> in Value Differential.

I'll have to break this down further in a reply of its own.


gl,
dave

[dave T]

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HYBRIDS. Teams who dropped by 2 or more in both PR RANK and OYYP RANK, lost by 18 or more, and their net yardage was 100 or more yards below their season average, are 22-2 ATS in their following game. Favorites average covering by nearly 18 ppg whether on the road or at home.

Combining this with the hybrid posted just above, the total is 38-4 ATS. There was one cancel out, reducing the record to 37-3, and one duplicate, reducing the record to 36-3 ATS.

It's important to note that with all of these tech plays, they must have played last week. The point is that they are responding, one way or the other, to last week's performance.

So if a team meets the criteria, say, for a PLAY ON in their next game, but then has a BYE after having met that criteria, you would not suspend the play for 2 weeks. You simply would not have a play. The team must have played last week, and is now playing this week, when it comes to these technical systems; which makes sense to me anyway.

gl,
dave

[tech fan]

thanks buddy

[dave T]

thanks buddy

No prob GT

[BettorsChat]

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