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With the NFL Season right around the corner, I want to share with the forum some really cool stuff I have worked on during the off-season. Most of it is a hybrid of statistical handicapping and technical handicapping, although some of it is situational. This is all new material I developed by experimenting with my Excel Program, and the numbers are pretty amazing...so far.
NOTE: The results represent what I consider to be the meat of the season; namely, Weeks 7-15 (nine weeks). The results are from the last 4 NFL seasons, 2005-2008, and are all Against the Spread.
Why Weeks 7-15? I believe this is the heart of the season. Once 6 Weeks have been played, each team has at least 5 games under their belt. I think this is the point at which the data is sufficient, which makes the lines more accurate. Five games gives each team the opportunity to play at five levels:
Their best. Above average. Average. Below average. Their worst. Once the first 6 weeks are past, then I believe technical handicapping aspects are less vulnerable to bad lines.
As for the first six weeks, I think a statistical form of handicapping is at it's best and probably the best way to go as you can exploit bad lines early.
Regarding Weeks 16 and 17, I have made it a habit to treat the last two weeks differently as teams rest players, jockey for playoffs and home field advantage, and play spoiler roles. The lines are often significantly adjusted for these factors, and some teams are looking forward to the off-season. This blunts both technical and statistical handicapping to some degree.
Before I indulge the new stuff, here's two of my oldies and all time faves. They hardly ever come up, but it's worth mentioning in the event that they do appear this season.
1.) Go AGAINST any NFL team that scored 30 or more points in each of their last two games while allowing 10 or less in each of those same two games...if they are now playing a team outside of their division.
The rationale is simple. In the NFL, after a team "peaked" offensively and defensively back to back, they tend to let down when faced with an opponent of lesser significance.
2.) Go with a team that is .500> if they are at home off 3 SU losses and played at home last week.
This rarely comes up, but is effective. Following the train of thought goes like this: A winning team has lost 2 games and now they are at home in an environment where you would expect them to bounce back. But they don't. The following week they are at home again and, despite their 3 losses, are at least still .500 or better. This is a good spot for a rout, especially if they are favored.
That's a couple oldies but goodies to look for this season. If we're lucky, we'll get 1 play from each of them...and two winners if we're doubly lucky...
gl,
dave
.
.
With the NFL Season right around the corner, I want to share with the forum some really cool stuff I have worked on during the off-season. Most of it is a hybrid of statistical handicapping and technical handicapping, although some of it is situational. This is all new material I developed by experimenting with my Excel Program, and the numbers are pretty amazing...so far.
NOTE: The results represent what I consider to be the meat of the season; namely, Weeks 7-15 (nine weeks). The results are from the last 4 NFL seasons, 2005-2008, and are all Against the Spread.
Why Weeks 7-15? I believe this is the heart of the season. Once 6 Weeks have been played, each team has at least 5 games under their belt. I think this is the point at which the data is sufficient, which makes the lines more accurate. Five games gives each team the opportunity to play at five levels:
Their best. Above average. Average. Below average. Their worst. Once the first 6 weeks are past, then I believe technical handicapping aspects are less vulnerable to bad lines.
As for the first six weeks, I think a statistical form of handicapping is at it's best and probably the best way to go as you can exploit bad lines early.
Regarding Weeks 16 and 17, I have made it a habit to treat the last two weeks differently as teams rest players, jockey for playoffs and home field advantage, and play spoiler roles. The lines are often significantly adjusted for these factors, and some teams are looking forward to the off-season. This blunts both technical and statistical handicapping to some degree.
Before I indulge the new stuff, here's two of my oldies and all time faves. They hardly ever come up, but it's worth mentioning in the event that they do appear this season.
1.) Go AGAINST any NFL team that scored 30 or more points in each of their last two games while allowing 10 or less in each of those same two games...if they are now playing a team outside of their division.
The rationale is simple. In the NFL, after a team "peaked" offensively and defensively back to back, they tend to let down when faced with an opponent of lesser significance.
2.) Go with a team that is .500> if they are at home off 3 SU losses and played at home last week.
This rarely comes up, but is effective. Following the train of thought goes like this: A winning team has lost 2 games and now they are at home in an environment where you would expect them to bounce back. But they don't. The following week they are at home again and, despite their 3 losses, are at least still .500 or better. This is a good spot for a rout, especially if they are favored.
That's a couple oldies but goodies to look for this season. If we're lucky, we'll get 1 play from each of them...and two winners if we're doubly lucky...
gl,
dave
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