MONEY (Manny) PACQUIAO!!!!!!!!

[MR Pain]

I agree with Pain...I'll need some decent odds to go against Mayweather. The hand speed won't be an issue in that fight like it was here. It will be interesting to see if/when that fight happens what kind of public backing Manny gets. The opening lines may change a lot in that one depending on what people read and think they see in both fighters.

PK

you know your stuff PK, but this KO probably really is going to get public on manny as well as maywheather's mouth, which always annoys everyone.

[wayne1218]

maywheather would beat manny (IMO)



hey wayne can you tell me who maywheather's trainer is ?

and again blitz congrats on the win.

Why? Is he fighting?

[poskid]

you know your stuff PK, but this KO probably really is going to get public on manny as well as maywheather's mouth, which always annoys everyone.

LOL...That's mostly why I think the lines will change quite a bit from open to close. Most likely lot of money is going to hit Pacquiao as soon as the lines drop. I do think a lot of sharps will wait to see if it moves some and then drop back on Mayweather. I'm gonna be likely looking to place a bet somewhere in the middle where I will hopefully get the best price on Mayweather before the sharps push the line back.

However if a lot of pub comes out on Mayweather prior to the line drop we may see less square money hitting Pacquiao which may keep the line solid and possibly depending on value make Pacquiao the bet. I dont think the fight is going to be unbettable. At some point the line is going to push to where a good line should emerge and give us plenty of value if it opens at a wash.

[MR Pain]

Why? Is he fighting?

uhhh yea boss ? why else would i bring up his name.

honestly wayne how could you have been on pacquiao and not heard about mayweather, seriously not being sarcastic.

yes wayne, he announced about a week ago he was coming out of retirement, and it didn't take too long for someone to want a piece of him.....1 day.

mayweather will return on july 18th vs juan manuel marquez, it will be fought at a 143 pound limit.

mayweather vs mosley should be the matchup but mosley is actually a test for floyd, so marquez is next in line to sharpen up floyd for a fight with manny.

take floyd vs marquez wayne.....it's a set up for the big one.

(*marquez biggest weight ever fought was 135)

[MR Pain]

LOL...That's mostly why I think the lines will change quite a bit from open to close. Most likely lot of money is going to hit Pacquiao as soon as the lines drop. I do think a lot of sharps will wait to see if it moves some and then drop back on Mayweather. I'm gonna be likely looking to place a bet somewhere in the middle where I will hopefully get the best price on Mayweather before the sharps push the line back.

However if a lot of pub comes out on Mayweather prior to the line drop we may see less square money hitting Pacquiao which may keep the line solid and possibly depending on value make Pacquiao the bet. I dont think the fight is going to be unbettable. At some point the line is going to push to where a good line should emerge and give us plenty of value if it opens at a wash.

completeley agree PK we just have to watch it very close, but first mayweather has to sharpen up vs marquez, so we can make a little on money may before the manny vs mayweather is even announced. LOL

[poskid]

completeley agree PK we just have to watch it very close, but first mayweather has to sharpen up vs marquez, so we can make a little on money may before the manny vs mayweather is even announced. LOL

That one will be a gimme. Hopefully the line opens at a decent spot so we can actually make some money. Anything much over -250 and I'm probably gonna have to refrain from betting it just because I HATE laying juice like that on any bet Come July betting early will be the strategy. Probably gonna have to take a no decision bet (depending on the juice) there just to make some money...a lot like this fight.

PK

[MR Pain]

That one will be a gimme. Hopefully the line opens at a decent spot so we can actually make some money. Anything much over -250 and I'm probably gonna have to refrain from betting it just because I HATE laying juice like that on any bet Come July betting early will be the strategy. Probably gonna have to take a no decision bet (depending on the juice) there just to make some money...a lot like this fight.

PK

i hear ya with juice, your probably right on with that line of -250, maybe higher and also probably a real good idea to do the no decision as well. i just see mayweather connnecting until there is nothing else to connect with. LOL

[MR Pain]

Why? Is he fighting?

I answered your question wayne, were you going to answer mine ?

[wayne1218]

uhhh yea boss ? why else would i bring up his name.

honestly wayne how could you have been on pacquiao and not heard about mayweather, seriously not being sarcastic.

yes wayne, he announced about a week ago he was coming out of retirement, and it didn't take too long for someone to want a piece of him.....1 day.

mayweather will return on july 18th vs juan manuel marquez, it will be fought at a 143 pound limit.

mayweather vs mosley should be the matchup but mosley is actually a test for floyd, so marquez is next in line to sharpen up floyd for a fight with manny.

take floyd vs marquez wayne.....it's a set up for the big one.

(*marquez biggest weight ever fought was 135)

You clearly missed the joke there. Let me help you a little. You asked: hey wayne can you tell me who maywheather's trainer is ?
I answered: Why? Is he fighting? I was talking about the trainer, not Mayweather. I know Mayweather is fighting pain but you ran on some rant for whatever you thought i said. I'm not a huge boxing fan pain. The last fight i paid for was Tyson/Holyfield 1. Boxing is a joke and i refuse to pay and see those 2 minute fights. I'll watch it when HBO shows it later. I also go by the eye test from watching both fighters. I could honestly CARE LESS who the trainer is. I can't tell you the name of the Florida Marlins coach without looking it up and i couldn't tell you the name of the Miami Heat coach without looking too. You probably couldn't either. So what, it doesn't mean you know nothing about the sport.

You talk like a man who has NEVER lost a fight and i find that very hard to believe. I also think Mayweather and his cocky big ass mouth may meet it's match with Manny and i'm hoping it happens! From reading all your "Expert" posts, i'm assuming if they met, Mayweather would be around -2000 right? After all, it's that obvious who would win right? Yea' ok ...... Why did some "Experts" have Hatton last night? Shit happens in fighting pain and i think Manny would have a GREAT shot against Mayweather!

[poskid]

You talk like a man who has NEVER lost a fight and i find that very hard to believe. I also think Mayweather and his cocky big ass mouth may meet it's match with Manny and i'm hoping it happens! From reading all your "Expert" posts, i'm assuming if they met, Mayweather would be around -2000 right? After all, it's that obvious who would win right? Yea' ok ...... Why did some "Experts" have Hatton last night? Shit happens in fighting pain and i think Manny would have a GREAT shot against Mayweather!

Pain and I are usually pretty close to the same opinion on fights. If I was setting a line on Pacquiao/Mayweather I would set it somewhere around -160 or so for Mayweather. and Pacquiao about +135 or so provided Mayweather looks good in this warm up fight. There are tons of factors in fights and the corner is a huge factor. Sighting the opponents weaknesses to make adjustments in style and type of training cannot be calculated. This is why often the best trainers aften have more than one great fighter. Because they cultivate good talent into great talent.

Hell...If the betting options didnt include no decision bets last night I would have been on Hatton myself. I only figured Manny at about a -180 or -200 prefight and wasnt prepared to bet him at -240. However I decided to make a calculation on how often I thought the fight would got to decision and came up with about 15% of the time it would go there with manny winning the lion's share was what I figured...The qualities of the 2 fighters involved here made decision much more unlikely than usual which i believe is somewhere around 20-25% for title fights. So make a quick calculation...

Manny's line is -180 (using my low calculation). So I figure he wins 65% of the time If you figure with a 15% decision rate the bet is already profitable to take Manny without decision as he will win about 50% of the time w/o decision though it's actually a little higher as I figure he will win about 80% of the decisions so I actually figured Manny as a 53% favorite to win the fight by KO, TKO or DQ.

-180 equals 65% wins minus 12% for the number of wins via Decision equals 53%. The line was +115 so we only need a 47% advantage to bet at a break even. Also...Note I always use the smaller numbers so the edge should actually be bigger than is represented. I typically want at least 5% when evaluating a fight and got 6% here.

Does that answer some questions? Once the Marquez lines come out I'll try to rmember to make a post like this where I break down the numbers to show why I make my bet. I'm sure Pain would like to see that one

PK

[wayne1218]

Pain and I are usually pretty close to the same opinion on fights. If I was setting a line on Pacquiao/Mayweather I would set it somewhere around -160 or so for Mayweather. and Pacquiao about +135 or so provided Mayweather looks good in this warm up fight. There are tons of factors in fights and the corner is a huge factor. Sighting the opponents weaknesses to make adjustments in style and type of training cannot be calculated. This is why often the best trainers aften have more than one great fighter. Because they cultivate good talent into great talent.

Hell...If the betting options didnt include no decision bets last night I would have been on Hatton myself. I only figured Manny at about a -180 or -200 prefight and wasnt prepared to bet him at -240. However I decided to make a calculation on how often I thought the fight would got to decision and came up with about 15% of the time it would go there with manny winning the lion's share was what I figured...The qualities of the 2 fighters involved here made decision much more unlikely than usual which i believe is somewhere around 20-25% for title fights. So make a quick calculation...

Manny's line is -180 (using my low calculation). So I figure he wins 65% of the time If you figure with a 15% decision rate the bet is already profitable to take Manny without decision as he will win about 50% of the time w/o decision though it's actually a little higher as I figure he will win about 80% of the decisions so I actually figured Manny as a 53% favorite to win the fight by KO, TKO or DQ.

-180 equals 65% wins minus 12% for the number of wins via Decision equals 53%. The line was +115 so we only need a 47% advantage to bet at a break even. Also...Note I always use the smaller numbers so the edge should actually be bigger than is represented. I typically want at least 5% when evaluating a fight and got 6% here.

Does that answer some questions? Once the Marquez lines come out I'll try to rmember to make a post like this where I break down the numbers to show why I make my bet. I'm sure Pain would like to see that one

PK

I really didn't have any questions. I'm not stupid and i know the trainer matters. My point is simple. Once the fight starts, it is up to the fighter to throw the punches and avoid the ones coming in. You NEVER know what is going to happen in a fight until it does. Pain trying to make me look stupid just because i don't know the trainers name off hand makes him come off just as arrogant as Mayweather himself. You can follow any sport you want and it doesn't matter how great you are, it doesn't mean there won't be times when you are wrong and "Rookies" like me or others are right. If it was that easy, the ML would show it and if you think he will be less than -200, that means several people also think Pac-Man has a good shot.

[poskid]

I really didn't have any questions. I'm not stupid and i know the trainer matters. My point is simple. Once the fight starts, it is up to the fighter to throw the punches and avoid the ones coming in. You NEVER know what is going to happen in a fight until it does. Pain trying to make me look stupid just because i don't know the trainers name off hand makes him come off just as arrogant as Mayweather himself. You can follow any sport you want and it doesn't matter how great you are, it doesn't mean there won't be times when you are wrong and "Rookies" like me or others are right. If it was that easy, the ML would show it and if you think he will be less than -200, that means several people also think Pac-Man has a good shot.

I was trying to walk over the shots you guys were giving each other and just try to explain where I was coming from. I agree that most people have no idea who trainers and corners are. Hell most of us who love basketball and football cant even tell who the coaches are there and they are a lot more prominant in the public eye.

What I meant by my post was to explain how I evaluate a fight. Like you said a lot of experts were on Hatton figuring the value was there to take him. And I was seriously considering it myself. Honestly arguing all this is pretty ridiculous since we need to see what Mayweather looks like against Marquez first. Who knows...he may come out nasty flat and not look like the fighter we knew. I give Pacquiao a damn good shot at taking down Mayweather even if he destroys Marquez. There is no way the line will be -200 like this fight. If it is then Vegas knows something I dont.

PK

[wayne1218]

I was trying to walk over the shots you guys were giving each other and just try to explain where I was coming from. I agree that most people have no idea who trainers and corners are. Hell most of us who love basketball and football cant even tell who the coaches are there and they are a lot more prominant in the public eye.

What I meant by my post was to explain how I evaluate a fight. Like you said a lot of experts were on Hatton figuring the value was there to take him. And I was seriously considering it myself. Honestly arguing all this is pretty ridiculous since we need to see what Mayweather looks like against Marquez first. Who knows...he may come out nasty flat and not look like the fighter we knew. I give Pacquiao a damn good shot at taking down Mayweather even if he destroys Marquez. There is no way the line will be -200 like this fight. If it is then Vegas knows something I dont.

PK

What are the ages of Manny and Mayweather? Do you know? I'm just curious.

[poskid]

What are the ages of Manny and Mayweather? Do you know? I'm just curious.

Lemme go check some wikipedia and get right back to you.

PK

[wayne1218]

I just looked and Pac is about 1 1/2 years younger. Not a big difference there.