The Bum's Contenders Profiles " Run for the Roses " + My Picks !

[StarDust Bum]

Papa Clem
2009 Prep Recap
Date Trk Race Chart Distance Time BSF Video
2/7 SA Robert B Lewis (G2) Chart 1 1/16m 1:41 94
3/14 FG Louisiana Derby (G2) Chart 1 1/16m 1:43 91
4/11 OP Arkansas Derby (G2) Chart 1 1/ 8m 1:49 101



Past Performances
Workouts

Owner: Bo Hirsch
Trainer: Gary Stute
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Future Wager : 47-1
Record: 6-2-2-0
Best Beyer: 101
Lifetime Earnings: $790,940


Profile by Mary Rampellini
Strengths: Papa Clem has tested well against the best of his crop, whether splitting Pioneerof the Nile and I Want Revenge in the Grade 2 Lewis, playing runner-up to Friesan Fire in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, or edging Old Fashioned to win the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby. Along the way, he has proven to be a horse who takes his track with him, and it's encouraging his best race came on dirt, in the Arkansas Derby. Papa Clem earned a Beyer of 101, making him one of just seven in Saturday's field to have put up a triple-digit number. As for distance demands, Papa Clem has never finished worse than second since moving to two turns, while his sire, Smart Strike, produced a top-class 1 1/4-mile horse in Curlin.

Weaknesses: Papa Clem lacks Grade 1 experience, and faced just a single standout rival in each of his final two preps. Further, his winning time of 1:49 in the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby could be characterized as average. Papa Clem will also be picking up eight pounds off that race, and he has not turned heads in his works at Churchill.

Strategy: Papa Clem has tactical speed, which gives him advantageous positioning power in a large field. He has been effective on the lead and showed a new dimension in the Arkansas Derby, when he stalked. As a result, he offers pace options to rider Rafael Bejarano.

Value: Although he won a major prep, Papa Clem won't be vying for favoritism and should be a fair price for a colt capable of winning Saturday.

Pedigree Analysis by Dan Illman
Dosage Profile: 9-4-11-0-0
Dosage Index: 3.36
Center of Distribution: 0.92
Auction: Homebred

Sire: Smart Strike is a fantastic sire, but he was also a very underrated racehorse. He won six races in a row between April 28, 1995, and August 25 1996 at distances ranging from seven furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. He twice earned Beyer Speed Figures of 115 or greater, and he won the Grade 1 Philip H. Iselin Handicap at Monmouth.
Smart Strike is a half-sister to the wonderful Breeders' Cup Distaff winner Dance Smartly, and hails from a powerhouse female family.

Dam: Miss Houdini was a fleet and precocious juvenile, winning the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante at seven furlongs. She earned a career-best 97 Beyer Speed Figure going three-quarters of a mile in her three-year-old debut, but she finished last at 6-5 odds in her only start around two turns in the Torrey Pines Stakes at one mile.
Papa Clem's second dam, Magical Maiden, was a multiple Grade 1 winner between one mile and 1 1/16 miles. She earned a 107 Beyer Speed Figure when third to the great Paseana in the Grade 2 Chula Vista Handicap at 11/16 miles.
The female family has produced Avies Copy, the third-place finisher in the 1987 Kentucky Derby

Outlook: There is a lot of speed in the female family, but Papa Clem's best race came in the nine-furlong Arkansas Derby. Ten furlongs may be pushing it just a bit, but Papa Clem should be able to stay the course.

[StarDust Bum]

Regal Ransom
2009 Prep Recap
Date Trk Race Chart Distance Time BSF Video
1/22 DUB Ford Flex Trophy N/A 7 fur. 1:24 N/A
2/12 DUB UAE 2000 Guineas (G3) N/A 1m 1:37 N/A
3/28 NAD UAE Derby (G2) N/A 1 1/8m 1:50 N/A



Past Performances
Workouts
Owner: Godolphin
Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor
Jockey: Alan Garcia
Future Wager : 42-1
Record: 5-2-2-0
Best Beyer: 93
Lifetime Earnings: $1,297,200


Profile by Alan Shuback
Strengths: Beat stablemate Desert Party in the UAE Derby, holding on most gamely through the long 2 1/2-furlong Nad Al Sheba stretch. He is a consistent type whose only bad try came on Santa Anita's Pro-Ride surface when he was in tight seeking room on the turn. Has been working brilliantly at Churchill and is possessed of enough early speed to be a pace factor. Is also well-practiced on dirt, something horses from Keeneland, Turfway, Santa Anita, Golden Gate, and Woodbine can't say.

Weaknesses: Got away with a slow pace in his UAE Derby victory and will face much more pressure on the front end in the Derby. Has been beating nothing outside of Desert Party in Dubai. There is also a doubt about his ability to stay 10 furlongs; his sire, Distorted Humor, and broodmare sire, Red Ransom, are best known for getting milers.

Strategy: Has been on the lead or close up to the pace in all of his best efforts to date, and will want to be in much the same position in the Derby. The feeling is that Godolphin still considers Desert Party as its first string, and while Godolphin will certainly be trying with Regal Ransom, it will be just as happy if he insures a fast pace for his uncoupled stablemate.

Value: Good if you think he can sneak away to an uncontested lead and hang on for at least third, a not-impossible scenario as there is little genuine speed in the race. Not so good otherwise, even at 25-1.

Pedigree Analysis By Dan Illman
Dosage Profile: 6-3-14-0-1
Dosage Index: 2.00
Center of Distribution: 0.54
Auction: $675,000 juvenile

Sire - Distorted Humor, a son of Kentucky Derby runner-up Forty Niner, was a crack sprinter. A multiple Grade 2 winner at seven furlongs, Distorted Humor surpassed the 115 Beyer Speed Figure plateau on three occasions. Although Distorted Humor never won at distances beyond 7 1/2 furlongs, he twice placed in graded races at 1 1/8 miles.
Although mostly known as a sprinter, Distorted Humor has sired graded stakes winners at ten furlongs. Funny Cide, the plucky New York-bred gelding, earned Kentucky Derby immortality by winning the 2003 Run for the Roses. Flower Alley won the historic Travers Stakes at Saratoga. Long-winded Fourty Niners Son prevailed in the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch on turf.
The classy filly, Hystericalady, scored in the 2008 Delaware Handicap. It's
No Joke took the Hawthorne Gold Cup.

Dam - Kelli's Ransom, a winless homebred, placed three times in four turf starts at distances ranging from 5 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. She never raced on dirt, and earned a career-high Beyer Speed Figure of 88 sprinting. Kelli's Ransom is a half-sister to River God, a stakes-placed miler on the turf, and Minister Eric, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up that placed 16th in the 2004 Kentucky Derby. Minister Eric won the Grade 2 San Fernando Breeders' Cup at 1 1/16 miles as a four-year-old.
This female family has produced Pico Teneriffe, a multiple graded winner at nine furlongs on the grass. Pico Teneriffe is the dam of Marchfield, the winner of the Breeders' Stakes going 1 1/2 miles on turf.
Other notable runners from this family include Salmon Ladder, a Group winner at 12 furlongs on turf in England, multiple stakes-winner Aladancer, Spinaway winner Alanesian, multiple stakes-winner Middle Brother, and Test Stakes winner Alablue.

Outlook: There is stamina in this pedigree, but Regal Ransom seems to have taken more after his sire in terms of racing ability. Yes, Regal Ransom did win the UAE 2000 Guineas at 1 1/8 miles but he was aided by an inside, speed-favoring course that day. This pedigree could carry him 1 1/4 miles under ideal circumstances, but whether the mad dash that is the Kentucky
Derby will provide those circumstances is questionable indeed.

[StarDust Bum]

Summer Bird
2009 Prep Recap
Date Trk Race Chart Distance Time BSF Video
3/1 OP Maiden Special Weight 34K Chart 6 f 1:11 65 N/A
3/19 OP Maiden Special Weight 35K Chart 1 1/16m 1:43 78 N/A
4/11 OP Arkansas Derby (G2) Chart 1 1/8m 1:49 99



Past Performances
Workouts

Owners: K. K. and Jayaraman Vilasini
Trainer: Tim Ice
Jockey: Chris Rosier
Future Wager : 17-1
Record: 3-1-0-1
Best Beyer: 99
Lifetime Earnings: $123,040


Profile by Art Gropper
Strengths: Appears to want to run all day with a strong finishing kick that would make him seemingly perfectly suited for the 1 1/4-mile distance. Has the pedigree to succeed, being a son of 2004 Belmont Stakes upsetter Birdstone with a Kentucky Derby-winning grandsire (Grindstone) and great-grandsire (Unbridled). Is coming into this as a rapidly improving 3-year-old who needed a huge run in the Arkansas Derby just to make it here.

Weaknesses: Did not race as a 2-year-old, and like Dunkirk is giving away tons of racing experience to the rest of the field with just three career starts. Every Kentucky Derby winner since Apollo in 1882 raced as a juvenile, while this guy began his racing career just 62 days ago. Always breaks behind the field and will need some racing luck to rally past the majority of these more seasoned runners.

Strategy: No sense in taking him out of his best game. He is as deep of a closer as you can get in this race. With Quality Road and Old Fashioned both absent, the pace scenario may not be as lightning quick as he would prefer. Was taken far back in the Arkansas Derby. He will likely sit back and attempt to make one sustained run, while most likely traveling wide.

Value: Since he is still eligible for an N1X allowance and is one of just three runners in the field not to have won a stakes, he will likely be 30-1 or better.

Pedigree Analysis By Dan Illman
Dosage Profile: 4-4-7-1-0
Dosage Index: 2.56
Center of Distribution: 0.69
Auction: Homebred

Sire: Birdstone was all the rage at Saratoga as a two-year-old as he won his debut by 12 1/2 lengths going six furlongs with a Beyer Speed Figure of 99. After upsetting Smarty Jones in the Belmont Stakes, Birdstone received a career top Beyer of 108 in winning the Travers at 1 1/4 miles.
Summer Bird is from Birdstone's first crop, but one would expect a Belmont and Travers winner to get classic-type performers.

Dam: Hong Kong Squall, a $22,000 yearling purchase by Preakness winner Summer Squall, was winless in nine tries, but placed three times at 1 1/16 miles. Her half-sister, Peninsula, placed in the Lecomte Stakes at one mile on the main track.
The second dam, by Kentucky Derby winner Alysheba, is a half-sister to the multiple Grade 1 winner Rubiano, a top-notch sprinter/miler in the early 1990's, and stakes-winning sprinter Tap Your Heels, the dam of Wood Memorial winner Tapit.
Other notable names in the pedigree include graded winners and successful stallions Glitterman and Relaunch.

Outlook: Birdstone adds stamina to the pedigree, but there is a good deal of sprinter and miler speed close up in the female family. The class deep in the female family may help lightly-raced Summer Bird get the distance.

[StarDust Bum]

Pioneer of the Nile
2009 Prep Recap
Date Trk Race Chart Distance Time BSF Video
2/7 SA Robert B Lewis (G2) Chart 1 1/16m 1:41.90 94
3/14 SA San Felipe (G2) Chart 1 1/16m 1:43.35 90
4/4 SA Santa Anita Derby (G1) Chart 1 1/8 m 1:49.17 96



Past Performances
Workouts
Owner: Zayat Stables, LLC
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Garrett Gomez
Future Wager : 9-1
Record: 8-5-0-1
Best Beyer: 96
Lifetime Earnings: $1,234,200


Profile by Michael Hammersly
Strengths: Speed-figure devotees may not love him, but if you like a horse who wins races, then he ranks high on your list. He's rattled off four straight wins in Southern California, including two Grade 1's (CashCall Futurity, Santa Anita Derby). Not only has he been winning, but his form has been flattered. Among those he has vanquished are I Want Revenge (won Grade 1 Wood, Grade 3 Gotham), Papa Clem (Grade 2 Arkansas Derby), and Chocolate Candy (Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby). His trainer, Bob Baffert, also knows how to navigate the Derby trail, having won previous editions with Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and War Emblem.

Weaknesses: As mentioned above, the one thing he has not done yet is run fast. The Derby will also mark his first dirt attempt after racing solely on synthetics and turf. However, his sire, Empire Maker, was a multiple Grade 1 dirt winner.

Strategy: Doesn't yet seem to have a style. Then again, that may mean he's versatile enough to do whatever it takes. He was very eager and pulling behind the slow pace of the Santa Anita Derby, so he will have to relax better. He's shown that if he relaxes, he can muster a strong late run.

Value: He's the most polarizing of Derby entrants. People either love his chances or completely dismiss him. That may help boost your price, but expect something in the 6-1 range.

Pedigree Analysis By Dan Illman
Dosage Profile: 8-7-5-0-2
Dosage Index: 3.89
Center of Distribution: 0.86
Auction: $290,000 yearling

Sire - Empire Maker finished second behind Funny Cide in the 2003 Kentucky Derby, but rebounded to deny that rival the Triple Crown five weeks later in the Belmont Stakes at 1 1/2 miles.
Empire Maker's sire, Unbridled, won the Derby in 1990. Unbridled's son, Grindstone, took home the 1996 renewal. Empire Maker is out of the dominant broodmare, Toussaud, and he earned Beyers of 110 or greater in three races at distances between nine and twelve furlongs.
The Empire Maker - Lord At War breeding 'nick' has produced Icon Project, a Grade 2-placed performer at 12 furlongs on grass. Icon Project won her maiden going that distance on turf in England.

Dam - Star of Goshen, a $175,000 purchase as a juvenile, won the La Troienne Stakes at seven furlongs at Churchill Downs with a career-best 103 Beyer Speed Figure. She was able to stretch her speed around two turns with an entry-level allowance win at a mile at Santa Anita.
Star of Goshen has already produced Forefathers, a multiple Graded-placed sprinter/miler by Gone West. Forefathers is 1-7 at a mile or longer, and has never won around two turns.
Star of Goshen is a half-sister to Powis Castle, a multiple graded stakes-winning sprinter that finished eighth in the 1994 Kentucky Derby. His longest win came around two turns in the Oceanside Stakes on grass at one mile.
Notable stakes winners from this family include Decathlon, a 25-time winner of over $250,000 in the 1950's, and Hollywood Gold Cup winner Prince Blessed.

Outlook - Pioneerof the Nile has handled nine furlongs without a problem, and his long stride coupled with the stout top-half of the pedigree indicate that 1 1/4 miles will be within his scope. Although we don't know how he'll handle dirt, there seems to be enough main track ability in his female family to suggest he'll take to the surface.

[StarDust Bum]

West Side Bernie
2009 Prep Recap
Date Trk Race Chart Distance Time BSF Video
1/31 GP Holy Bull (G3) Chart 1 1/8 m 92
3/21 TP Lane's End (G2) Chart 1 1/8 m 84
4/4 AQU Wood Memorial (G1) Chart 1 1/8 m 101



Past Performances
Workouts

Owners: George & Lori Hall
Trainer: Kelly Breen
Jockey: Stewart Elliott
Future Wager : 17-1
Record: 7-2-2-1
Best Beyer: 101
Lifetime Earnings: $407,360


Dosage Profile: 3-3-6-2-0
Dosage Index: 1.80
Center of Distribution: 0.50
Auction: $62,000 short yearling, $50,000 yearling

Sire - Bernstein was a quick turf sprinter on the other side of the Atlantic. He won four races in Europe between six and seven furlongs including a pair of Group 3 events in Ireland. He never ran on the main track.
Bernstein is a full brother to Caress, a three-time Grade 3 winner, and dam of Hopeful and Lane's End Breeders' Futurity winner Sky Mesa.
Bernstein's best performers have raced in South America. He is the sire of Storm Mayor, the champion stayer in Argentina with wins at 1 ½ miles on both turf and dirt, and at 1 9/16 miles on dirt. He has also produced Storm Military, a stakes-winner at 1 1/4 miles in Argentina.

Dam - Time Honored, a $50,000 yearling purchase resold for $19,000 as a juvenile, won a pair of six furlong sprints in her career, and was 0-5 at distances of a mile or over.
West Side Bernie's second dam, Hazel's Honor, was a three-time stakes-winner between six furlongs and one mile.
Another notable runner from this female family is Hey Hazel, the winner of the Grade 2 Molly Pitcher Handicap at 1 1/16 miles

Outlook: West Side Bernie is bred for speed on both sides of the pedigree, but he's acted like a middle-distance horse since his career debut going two turns last year at Monmouth. In fact, West Side Bernie has never sprinted in his career. He's come up short in three races at 1 1/8 miles this year, and may find the Derby distance a bit too long.

[StarDust Bum]

There is your lineup and all you need to know about the field...I"ll have my pick Saturday morning. Also my Exacta and Trifecta Picks . Good Luck !

[tech fan]

thanks for the work buddy sure this helpa alot of people out

[whitefire]

Great info, thanks StarDust!

[StarDust Bum]

Kentucky Derby Analysis

135th Running of the Roses
Post Horse Trainer/Jockey Bottom Line

1 West Side Bernie
Kelly Breen
Stewart Elliot Though he isn't bred to go this far, perhaps his solid two turn foundation will carry him the extra eighth of a mile. Would like him more if he hadn't drawn so poorly and I'm not the biggest Kelly Breen fan. I doubt he can win but it wouldn't surprise me totally if he grabbed a share.

2 Musket Man
Derek Ryan
Eibar Coa Wasn't a fan before the draw and I'm certainly not a fan after it. Will probably have to use some of his speed to avoid early traffic trouble and that doesn't bode well for him. Connections are a serious concern as well.

3 Mr. Hot Stuff
Eoin Harty
John Vela I'm finding it tough to gauge this guy. Though he's been getting closer to winning the further they go he still isn't winning. Plus, you' don't know how he'll handle the transition to dirt. Another who wouldn't stun me if he grabbed a share and may have had an even better shot at doing so with a better draw, but I'd be really surprised if he won.

4 Advice
Todd Pletcher
Rene Douglas Though he did pass the entire field to win the Lexington, there wasn't much in the race, save Square Eddie. His pedigree suggests he doesn't want to go this far and he'll be taking a huge step up in class in the Derby. I was impressed with him a bit immediately following the Lexington but not so much now.

5 Hold Me Back
Bill Mott
Kent Desormeaux Has added 20 points onto his Beyer figures from last year but still hasn't broken 100. I'm worried that he'll find a ton of trouble heading into the first turn unless he finds some speed, which I doubt will happen. Another who might grab a share if everything goes perfectly and may actually be able to pull off a mild shocker should he handle the dirt and the race falls apart late.

6 Friesan Fire
Larry Jones
Gabriel Saez One of the more intriguing entrants in Derby 135. Emerged from the shadow of now-retired stablemate Old Fashioned the further we traveled down this years' Derby trail. His stalk and pounce style is one of the most successful in the Derby and in all of racing. He's drawn well and should be able to work out a nice trip…..but he hasn't run in seven weeks!!! To put that in prospective, five of his Derby rivals have run TWICE since his last start. And, the fact that he doesn't have a 1 1/8 miles race under his belt bothers me as well. There is no doubting his talent, but he might have too much physically to overcome. Combine that with the scrutiny Jones and Saez will likely face in the 36 hours before the race concerning the tragic end Eight Belles faced last year and it complicates matters even more.

7 Papa Clem
Gary Stute
Rafael Bejarano From a numbers point of view, the pros outweigh the cons but this colt really seems to be having a tough time since arriving in Louisville. The same way some horses head into a race going the right way some can go sour at the wrong time. I'm thinking that's the case here. Maybe it's too much, too soon for him or perhaps Stute is just doing too much with him. Either way, I'm not as excited about him as I was three weeks ago.

8 Mine that Bird
Bennie "Chip" Woolley Jr.
Calvin Borel Woolley has only trained the horse for his last two starts, so he'll be looking to win his first race with the horse in the Kentucky Derby. You have got to be kidding me.

9 Join in the Dance
Todd Pletcher
It's no wonder Pletcher's Derby record is 0 for 21 when you're running horses like this. Will be part of the early pace and nothing more.

10 Regal Ransom
Saeed bin Suroor
Alan Garcia I'll save my Godolphin rant for Desert Party. For now, I'm throwing this guy onto the "nothing more than early speed" pile and I plan on him staying there.

11 Chocolate Candy
Jerry Hollendorfer
Mike Smith Has received plenty of attention throughout the Derby trail but I still don't get it. Someone had to be second in the S.A. Derby last out and Hollendorfer has done a great job in avoiding the big boys for the most part in order to get him here.

12 General Quarters
Thomas R. McCarthy
Julien Leparoux In my opinion, this colt is one of the more lively longshots in this field. His three wins have come over three different surfaces and is bred to absolutely love an off track should it come up wet. Has tactical speed and should be able to work out a great trip from that post under Leparoux.

13 I Want Revenge
Jeff Mullins
Joe Talamo With the defection of Quality Road, the role of favoritism will fall squarely on his shoulders. While they've done much better in recent years, historically, you want to steer clear of favorites. I'm not so quick to dismiss this colt however as he's shown a brilliance about him in his two dirt starts that could just be the start of something big. With that said, I'm not as enamored with him as some others. Can he win this? Absolutely, and he might do so easily, but I wouldn't engrave his name on the trophy and fit him for the blanket of roses just yet.

14 Atomic Rain
Kelly Breen
Joe Bravo Didn't even get into the field until Tuesday and for good reason - he doesn't belong!! He'll serve as nothing more than an early pacesetter.

15 Dunkirk
Todd Pletcher
Edgar Prado The day he broke his maiden, he made me say aloud "I think I just watched the Derby winner," something I haven't said in several years. He's done little wrong in such a short amount of time and is seasoned beyond his three race career. I really would have liked Gomez to stay here as I can't remember a top-notch rider like Prado go into a funk like this ever. A major, major player.

16 Pioneerof the Nile
Bob Baffert
Garrett Gomez The fact that Gomez stayed ere speaks volumes as the sky is the limit when it comes to the talent possessed by a horse like Dunkirk. I'm sure the fact that he's won four graded stakes in a row on this horse helped, but I'm sure it was still a gut-wrenching decision. Post shouldn't hurt as he's raced a few times with success in his career. The fact that he's never raced on dirt is of course the biggest concern but he is the lone multiple G1 stakes winner in the field and they say the good ones can handle any surface. An obvious candidate to win the roses.

17 Summer Bird
Tim Ice
Chris Rosier I'd say the post really hurt his chances, but did he really have any to begin with?

18 Nowhere to Hide
Nick Zito
Falls into the "why is he here?" category. He's won just once in eight tries and has never earned a Beyer figure higher than 90.

19 Desert Party
Saeed bin Suroor
Ramon Dominguez Some feel that, in what's turned out to be a strange year that another one of the "Derby rules" will be broken and maybe it'll be Godolphin's turn. I agree with half of that theory and it's not the Godolphin part as I don't think they'll EVER win the Derby the way they are trying to do things. This horse is talented and had some success as a two-year-old in the U.S. at the start of his career but I don't think this is a good spot for him.

20 Flying Private
D. Wayne Lukas
Robby Albarado It wouldn't be the first Saturday in May without a Lukas sighting, now would it? Can you believe they actually wanted to run this horse? I can't, but I'm not surprised because this goes to show that there isn't a cure for Derby Fever!!

[StarDust Bum]

Based on dirt form, the choice is obvious

WASHINGTON - If synthetic tracks did not confuse the issue, an analysis of the Kentucky Derby could be reduced to a simple bit of deductive reasoning.
Pioneerof the Nile has won four straight stakes races in California. He has defeated such rivals as I Want Revenge (twice) and Papa Clem.

I Want Revenge subsequently went to Aqueduct and won two stakes impressively. Papa Clem shipped to Oaklawn Park and captured the $1 million Arkansas Derby.

In the past, the logical conclusion would have been obvious. The best 3-year-olds are in California, Pioneerof the Nile is the best of the bunch, and he figures to win the 135th Derby on Saturday.

However, such reasoning is not applicable since the Southern California tracks replaced their traditional dirt ovals with synthetic surfaces. Few horses display the same ability on dirt and synthetics, and it is difficult to predict a horse's preferences until he has tried both.

The California-based I Want Revenge had displayed very respectable form on synthetic surfaces, though he had managed to win only a maiden race in six starts. But when trainer Jeff Mullins shipped him to Aqueduct in order to try him on dirt, he was a different horse. I Want Revenge earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 113 in the Gotham Stakes, a number that was 21 points higher than his best effort in the West and was good enough to win any of the last six Kentucky Derbies.

However, the fact that I Want Revenge made this successful transition has absolutely no relevance to the chances of the other synthetic-track specialists in the Derby field. Perhaps one of them will improve on dirt, too, but the probabilities are against them. Last year, four horses came into the Derby with solid credentials on synthetics and no proven dirt form; they finished sixth, ninth, 16th, and 19th. I will bet against all of the synthetic specialists in Saturday's race - Chocolate Candy, Advice, Hold Me Back, Mr. Hot Stuff, and particularly Pioneerof the Nile.

As a 2-year-old, Pioneerof the Nile was trained by the astute Bill Mott, who launched the colt's career by running him on the grass at Saratoga and never tried him on dirt. It is plausible to assume that Mott didn't think he was a good dirt runner. Under the care of Bob Baffert this year, Pioneerof the Nile has blossomed at Santa Anita, which favors horses with his stretch-running style, but he may be strictly a synthetic-track horse.

Synthetic tracks have only injected handicapping riddles into the Derby. They have changed the complexion of the field and the dynamics of the race. The Derby has usually been filled with speed horses whose owners and trainers are praying they can somehow hang on for 1 1/4 miles. Many of these horses earned their way into the field after successes on speed-favoring tracks at Santa Anita and Keeneland. Their presence often created a destructive early pace that set up the Derby for a stretch-runner.

But since California and Keeneland have both converted to synthetics, fewer such speedsters enter the Derby. With a slower early pace, horses coming from far behind are compromised. That is an additional reason for bettors to avoid synthetic-track stretch-runners and to prefer horses who have shown speed on the dirt.

I Want Revenge is a standout in the Derby on the basis of his 2-for-2 dirt record. His losses in California are largely irrelevant. He has the necessary speed, which he displayed by dueling for the lead and winning the Gotham Stakes. But he showed other dimensions to his talent when he broke several lengths behind the field in the Wood Memorial, encountered traffic trouble in the stretch, and still managed to win. He possesses the versatility and stamina that are important assets at Churchill Downs.

After the formidable Quality Road was knocked out of the Derby by a hoof problem, there appear to be only two challengers with a plausible chance to beat the favorite: Friesan Fire and Dunkirk. Friesan Fire won three straight stakes in Louisiana, and he showed his readiness for the Derby with a sizzling five-furlong workout this week. One possible knock against him is that he earned his only excellent speed figure on a sloppy track. Dunkirk definitely has the talent, based on his second-place finish behind Quality Road in the Florida Derby. He owns the second-best speed figure in the field. However, the $3.7 million yearling has raced three times and never started as a 2-year-old. He is bucking a formidable precedent: No horse unraced at 2 has won the Derby since Apollo in 1882.

Since these two rivals are anything but iron-clad propositions, bettors playing trifectas and superfectas can take a chance with longshots who have respectable dirt form. Papa Clem ran decently to win the Arkansas Derby. Desert Party and Regal Ransom both have enough speed and seasoning to fare better than the other shippers from Dubai who have flopped at Churchill Downs. But this much about the Derby seems clear (at least to me): I Want Revenge will win it, and none of the synthetic- track specialists will finish close to him.

[StarDust Bum]

Scratch I WANT REVENGE......OUT

[StarDust Bum]

My Derby Picks:

# 12 General Quarters 20 Across WPS 60 Total
# 15 Dunkirk 20 Across WPS 60 Total

Exactas 5.00 Straight Box 40.00 Total
# 12 # 15
With
# 2 Musket Man
# 6 Friesan Fire
# 7 Papa Clem
#17 Summerbird

Trifecta Box 1.00 Trifect box + 60 each 120 Total
12/2,6,7,15,17/2,6,7,15,17

15/2,6,7,12,17/2,6,7,12,17

There ya go.......my usual plays every derby just under a 300 investment. lets see if i get some huge returns.

[StarDust Bum]

I made a nice donation to the horse racing industry.........Who would have thought a horse from New Mexico had a chance......Mannnnnnnnnnnnnnnn those payouts were huge.