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**StarDust Bum** · 05-01-2009, 01:24 AM

Atomic Rain
2009 Prep Recap
Date Trk Race Chart Distance Time BSF Video
1/8 GP Allowance 37000 Chart 1 1/8m 1:51 86 N/A
2/14 Tam Sam F. Davis (G3) Chart 1 1/16m 1:43 74
3/6 GP Allowance 37000 Chart 1 1/8m 1:51 82 N/A
4/4 AQU Wood Memorial (G1) Chart 1 1/8 m 1:49 95

Past Performances
Workouts

Owners: George and Lori Hall
Trainer: Kelly Breen
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Future Wager : 17-1
Record: 7-1-3-1
Best Beyer: 95
Lifetime Earnings: $118,940

Profile by Byron King
Strengths: He has the pedigree to get the 1 1/4-mile Derby distance, being by Smart Strike (sire of Curlin) out of a Cox's Ridge mare. He also comes off his best race to date from a speed figure perspective, running a 95 Beyer in finishing fourth in the Wood Memorial despite traffic problems. That was easily his best effort since a distant runner-up finish behind one-time Derby favorite Old Fashioned in last year's Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct.

Weaknesses: He was a last-moment addition to the race when Square Eddie was withdrawn with sore shins. So he hasn't worked at Churchill Downs and shipped to Louisville only in mid-week. Beyond that, this is a horse with just one win from seven starts, and just one Beyer that falls in the 90s - the 95 he posted in the Wood. In a race in which the Derby winner usually runs a Beyer of 105 or greater, he needs to run much, much faster.
Strategy: He prefers to press or stalk the pace, racing no more than two to three lengths off the pace. That style should work to his benefit in the Derby, given that there is not as much speed in the field.

Value: Not having won more than one race, and being fourth in the Wood, which many observers felt did not have much depth, he will be regarded as a big longshot. He figures to be one of the largest prices on the odds board, starting at 50-1 or higher.

Pedigree Analysis By Dan Illman
Dosage Profile: 9-3-10-0-0
Dosage Index: 3.40
Center of Distribution: 0.95
Auction: $170,000

Sire: Smart Strike has emerged as one of the most talented stallions in the world. His son, Curlin, took the Preakness Stakes at 1 3/16 miles, the Breeders' Cup Classic at 1 1/4 miles, and the Dubai World Cup at 1 ¼ miles en route to breaking the lifetime North American earnings record. In addition to Curlin, Smart Strike's progeny includes English Channel, the hero of the Breeders' Cup Turf at 1 1/2 miles. Communique is a multiple graded winner on grass between 1 3/16 miles and 1 1/2 miles. Portcullis won the Breeders' Stakes at 1 1/2 miles on grass. Fleetstreet Dancer took home the Japan Cup Dirt at About 1 5/16 miles. Shadow Cast nabbed the Grade 1 Personal Ensign at 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga. Tenpins won the Washington Park Handicap at 1 3/16 miles. Shoal Water, based in Canada, was a multiple graded winner on turf between 1 3/16 miles at 1 3/8 miles.
Smart Strike's sire, Mr. Prospector, produced Fusaichi Pegasus, the Kentucky Derby winner of 2000.

Dam: Paradise Pond won on both dirt and turf between one mile and 1 1/16 miles. She is a half-sister to the fleet Roxelana, the winner of the Grade 3 La Troienne Stakes at seven furlongs at Churchill Downs with a 105 Beyer. Roxelana finished third in her only start routing. Another half-sibling, Tiger, won the Grade 3 Bold Ruler Handicap at six furlongs with a 110 Beyer.
Atomic Rain's second dam was a stakes winner at six furlongs.

Outlook: There is a lot of speed on the bottom half of the pedigree, and Atomic Rain's only win to date came at five furlongs. He is unlikely to stay this distance.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-01-2009, 01:24 AM

Chocolate Candy
2009 Prep Recap
Date Trk Race Chart Distance Time BSF Video
1/17 GG California Derby Chart 1 1/16m 1:43 86
2/14 GG El Camino Real (G3) Chart 1 1/8m 1:50 91
4/4 SA Santa Anita Derby (G1) Chart 1 1/8m 1:49 94

Past Performances
Workouts

Owners: Sid and Jenny Craig Trust
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Jockey: Mike Smith
Future Wager : 18-1
Record: 9-4-2-1
Best Beyer: 94
Lifetime Earnings: $532,500

Profile by Michael Hammersly
Strengths: He gives every indication furlongs nine and 10 will be right up his alley. He's proven at the top level, finishing third in the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity last Dec. 20 (behind top contenders Pioneerof the Nile and I Want Revenge). After gamely winning the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby, he finished smartly to be second in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, again to Pioneerof the Nile, in an effort reminiscent of Real Quiet's final Kentucky Derby prep. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has yet to win a Derby but has won two Kentucky Oaks (Lite Light, Pike Place Dancer) and surely knows how to handle a top horse.

Weaknesses: Like nemesis Pioneerof the Nile he will be making his first start on dirt, so that's a question mark. He has pedigree to help - sire Candy Ride was a Grade 1 winner going 1 1/4 miles on dirt in the Pacific Classic and second dam In Memory is a half-sister to Triple Crown winner Affirmed.

Strategy: He will bide his time, then start to get involved at the midway point to land a position from which to spring his late run. A big field can cause problems with that, but if he can maneuver his way through he can be scary.

Value: He's something of the wise-guy horse. Many are saying he's very close to Pioneerof the Nile and I Want Revenge in ability but figures to be a much higher price. Anything 12-1 or higher would have appeal.

Pedigree Analysis By Dan Illman
Dosage Profile: 7-1-11-1-0
Dosage Index: 2.08
Center of Distribution: 0.70
Auction: Homebred

Sire - The undefeated Candy Ride was a champion miler in his native Argentina, but he really opened eyes with his facile score in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at 1 1/4 miles at Del Mar. Candy Ride earned a monstrous 123 Beyer Speed Figure in the Pacific Classic while leaving the good handicap horse Medaglia d'Oro in the wake of his brilliance. Candy Ride won at distances ranging between six furlongs and 1 1/4 miles, and he scored on both turf and dirt.
From his first crop, Candy Ride has sired the exciting sprint prospects Capt. Candyman Can and Evita Argentina, and the solid turf miler Jack Spratt.

Dam - Crownette, a $190,000 juvenile purchase by Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, won the Santa Ysabel Stakes at 1 1/16 miles. She has already foaled Crowning Storm, the third-place finisher of the Grade 3 Affirmed Handicap at 1 1/16 miles.
Chocolate Candy's second dam, the unplaced Alydar mare In Memory, is a half-sister to Alydar's eternal rival, Triple Crown champion Affirmed.

Outlook: The brilliance of Candy Ride coupled with the staying power of the female family makes Chocolate Candy's pedigree a most interesting one. Chocolate Candy has already proven himself at nine furlongs, and he acts like another eighth wouldn't hurt. He still must show he can win on dirt, but the class in the female family indicates that anything is possible.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-01-2009, 01:25 AM

Desert Party
2009 Prep Recap
Date Trk Race Chart Distance Time BSF Video
1/22 DUB Ford Flex Trophy N/A 7 fur. 1:24 N/A
2/12 DUB UAE 2000 Guineas (G3) N/A 1 1/8m 1:37 N/A
3/28 NAD UAE Derby (G2) N/A 1 1/8m 1:50:1 N/A

Past Performances
Workouts

Owner: Godolphin
Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor
Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
Future Wager : 16-1
Record: 6-4-1-0
Best Beyer: 78
Lifetime Earnings: $688,467

Profile by Alan Shuback
Strengths: This son of Dubai World Cup winner Street Cry, himself the sire of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, is bred for the job. His broodmare sire Tabasco Cat won both the Preakness and the Belmont. Consistent if not brilliant, Desert Party only poor run came when a troubled sixth in the Hopeful last year. Has been running on a Nad Al Sheba dirt surface made to resemble that of Churchill Downs, so he should have an advantage over synthetic track winners. Working sharply Godolphin's best chance yet for elusive Derby triumph. Relentlessly one-paced, he will stay the distance.

Weaknesses: Godolphin is 0 for 5 in the Run for the Roses, suggesting Dubai is not the place to train a Derby winner. More-over, with the exception of stablemate Regal Ransom, he was facing inferior types at Nad Al Sheba, although he was beating them by large margins like a good one should.

Strategy: Should be tracking the pace in sixth or seventh, beginning his long drive to the line on the far turn. Couldn't quite catch Regal Ransom in the UAE Derby chasing a relatively slow pace, but still got the last quarter in 24.73 seconds, the final eighth in 12.51. Fast pace would aid him immeasurably.

Value: Plenty at projected 15-1, as this Derby is without a standout. Bettors will be divided on his chances, students of breeding liking him, anti-Dubai types dismissing him. He must, however, be used in exotics.

Pedigree Analysis By Dan Illman
Dosage Profile: 5-2-5-0-0
Dosage Index: 3.80
Center of Distribution: 1.00
Auction: $425,000 yearling, $2,100,000 juvenile

Sire: Street Cry won the Dubai World Cup at 1 1/4 miles, took the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap at nine furlongs with a 118 Beyer, and capped off his career with a runner-up effort in the nine-furlong Whitney Handicap with a 119 speed figure. He has already sired a Kentucky Derby winner in Street Sense, and an undefeated Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic champion in Zenyatta. Street Cry's son, Tomcito, won a pair of Group 1 races in Peru between 10 and 12 furlongs while Summer Doldrums won the Grade 3 Colonial Turf Cup at 1 3/16 miles on the grass.

Dam: Sage Cat only raced twice in her career, and never competed past six furlongs. She won her career debut at Laurel with a 60 Beyer Speed Figure. Her sire, Tabasco Cat, won the Preakness and Belmont in 1994.
Sage Cat has already foaled Elliecat, a stakes-winner at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt.
Desert Party's second dam, Lady Sage, placed third in the Maryland Million Oaks at 1 1/16 miles, but all of her wins came in sprint races.

Outlook: The female family is tilted toward speed, but Street Cry's progeny can go long, and Desert Party was slowly grinding his way to the winner at the end of the nine-furlong UAE Derby. The Derby distance is going to be testing, but not impossible for this Godolphin runner.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-01-2009, 01:25 AM

Dunkirk
2009 Prep Recap
Date Trk Race Chart Distance Time BSF Video
1/24 GP Maiden race Chart 7f 1:25 77
2/19 GP Allowance (3700n1x) Chart 1 1/8m 1:50 98
3/28 GP Florida Derby(G1) Chart 1 1/8m 1:47 108

Past Performances
Workouts

Owners: Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Edgar Prado
Future Wager : 11-1
Record: 3-2-1-0
Best Beyer: 108
Lifetime Earnings: $193,200

Profile by Ron Gierkink
Strengths: He overcame some adversity to win his first two starts impressively at Gulfstream Park. The track appeared to favor speed when he was a wide-closing second behind the gifted Quality Road in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Lightly raced colt does have a pair of nine-furlong routes under his girth. This $3.7 million yearling is out of a Kentucky Oaks winner, and could have the most upside in the field.

Weaknesses: Only three of the last 54 Derby winners debuted after October, and Dunkirk never made his first start until Jan. 24. The last Derby winner who didn't run at 2 was Apollo in 1882. Last year, Big Brown became the first Derby winner in 93 years to prevail in his fourth start. A moderate pace would probably hinder his closing style, and he might encounter traffic problems in this huge field.

Strategy: Edgar Prado didn't have him all that far off a lively pace in his debut, the only time he rode him, but he will likely be rallying from somewhere in the second half of the field, judging by his trip in the Florida Derby.

Value: Given his inexperience, less than 10-1 would be an underlaid price on this son of Unbridled's Song, the beaten favorite in the 1996 Derby.

Pedigree Analysis By Dan Illman
Dosage Profile: 9-13-16-0-2
Dosage Index: 3.00
Center of Distribution: 0.68
Auction: $3,700,000 yearling

Sire - Unbridled's Song was the hype horse going into the 1996 Kentucky Derby, but a nagging foot injury coupled with the extreme outside post position in the field of 19 doomed him to a fifth-place finish. Unbridled's Song prevailed in the 1995 Breeders' Cup Juvenile at 1 1/16 miles at Belmont Park, and he won the Grade 1 Florida Derby at 1 1/8 miles the following season with a 114 Beyer Speed Figure. Unbridled's Song also took the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at 1 1/8 miles in his final prep for the Kentucky Derby. He only raced once at four, earning a career-best 118 Beyer in winning the Olympic Handicap at seven furlongs.
Unbridled's Song's progeny typically do their best at distances up to nine furlongs, but he has sired some top performers at the classic distances. Octave won the Coaching Club American Oaks at ten furlongs while Political Force took the Suburban at the same distance. The ill-fated Eight Belles finished second in last year's Kentucky Derby.
Unbridled's Song's sire won the Kentucky Derby in 1990, and Unbridled's son, Grindstone, took home top honors in the 1996 renewal.

Dam - Millionaire Secret Status won both the Kentucky Oaks and Mother Goose at nine furlongs, finished second in the Alabama at 1 1/4 miles, and was third in the Coaching Club American Oaks at 1 1/2 miles. She is a full sister to Alumni Hall, a multiple Grade 3 winner at nine furlongs. Another half-sister, Private Gift, was a stakes-winner at 1 1/16 miles.
Dunkirk's second dam, Private Status, won the Bourbonette Stakes at one mile. Miss Brio, a half-sister to Private Status, defeated Bayakoa twice in California before shipping East to best Winning Colors in the Grade 1 Maskette Stakes. Another half-sister, Maria Candela, was a multiple Group 1 winner in Chile.

Outlook: Dunkirk's inexperience may work against him, but his sterling pedigree should allow him to navigate this distance without much fuss.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-01-2009, 01:26 AM

Flying Private
2009 Prep Recap
Date Trk Race Chart Distance Time BSF Video
1/17 OP Optional Claiming 50K Chart 1 m 1:38 70 N/A
1/31 OP Optional Claiming 50K Chart 1 1/16m 1:45 69 N/A
2/14 OP Optional Claiming 50K Chart 1 m 1:38 77 N/A
2/28 OP Mountain Valley 50K Chart 6 f 1:11 85 N/A
3/21 TP Lane's End (G2) Chart 1 1/8m 1:49 94
4/11 OP Arkansas Derby (G2) Chart 1 1/8m 1:49 91

Past Performances
Workouts

Owners: Grand Slam Farm LLC
Trainer: D Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Future Wager : 77-1
Record: 10-1-4-0
Best Beyer: 94
Lifetime Earnings: $193,080

Profile by Steve Grabowski
Strengths: He has two nine-furlong prep races under his belt, which should provide him with a solid foundation for the stretch-out to the Kentucky Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles. His two major male pedigree influences - sire Fusaichi Pegasus and damsire Unbridled - are both past winners of this race. He ran well over the Churchill Downs main track as a juvenile and while he didn't fare so well in the Arkansas Derby, with the slight regression behind him, maybe he's ready for a peak performance.

Weaknesses: He has yet to reach the triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure plateau, which is what it usually takes to win this race. His highest Beyer Figure came over a synthetic surface, and the Kentucky Derby will be run on dirt. With just a maiden win under his belt he remains eligible for the N1X allowance condition, and he hasn't won at a distance farther than the sprint trip of three-quarters of a mile. His off-the-pace running style could leave him with some traffic to overcome in the lane.

Strategy: There's not a lot of speed in this year's Kentucky Derby, so jockey Robby Albarado would be best off trying to coax some early foot out of this colt in order to keep close to the leaders. Regardless, he would need to run the race of his life while catching a handful of breaks along the way to get involved for even a minor share of the purse.

Value: It's likely that his price won't come close to representing his true chances of winning - or even proving a serious threat.

Pedigree Analysis By Dan Illman
Dosage Profile: 15-11-14-0-2
Dosage Index: 3.67
Center of Distribution: 0.88
Auction: $700,000 yearling

Sire: Fusaichi Pegasus cost $4M as a yearling, and became the most expensive Auction purchase to ever win the Kentucky Derby.
A son of the legendary stallion Mr. Prospector, Fusaichi Pegasus burst onto the scene with a 106 Beyer win in the San Felipe Stakes, and a 111 score in the Wood Memorial. He went off the public choice in the 2000 Derby, and didn't disappoint, winning fairly easily with a 108 Beyer.
Many of his best offspring have raced overseas. Haradasun was a Group 1 winner at one mile on turf in both Australia and England. Floral Pegasus was a Group 1 winner on turf at one mile in Hong Kong. Fifty Oner was a Group 3 winner at 1 1/8 miles on dirt in Japan while Race for the Stars was a Group 3 winner on grass in Ireland. Roman Ruler, Bandini, Ravel, and Andromeda's Hero are graded winners at nine furlongs in North America.

Dam: Beautiful Treasure, a $500,000 yearling purchase by Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled, finished second in the Astoria Stakes at 5 1/2 furlongs at Belmont Park as a juvenile, but was mostly a disappointment. She ended up winning only one of 18 starts, and was 0-7 in races contested at one mile or longer. A half-sister, Saturday Hero, placed in the San Pedro Stakes at six furlongs, but ended his career racing in $4,000 conditioned claimers at Finger Lakes.
Flying Private's second dam, Beautiful Moment, finished third in the Nursery Stakes at 4 1/2 furlongs at Hollywood Park as a juvenile. She is a half-sister to Bidding Proud, a Grade 3 winner on grass at about 1 1/8 miles.
This is the female family of Roving Minstrel, a longwinded turf runner that banked over 375K in the 1980's, and multiple graded winner Minstrel Miss.

Outlook: By a Kentucky Derby winner out of a dam by a Kentucky Derby winner, Flying Private seems a lock on paper to get this distance. Be cautioned that Fusaichi Pegasus' progeny generally do best at distances up to nine furlongs, and that there is plenty of speed close up in the female family.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-01-2009, 01:26 AM

Friesan Fire
2009 Prep Recap
Date Trk Race Chart Distance Time BSF Video
1/10 FG Lecomte (G3) Chart 1 m 1:37.67 94
2/7 FG Risen Star (G3) Chart 1 1/16m 1:45.11 97
3/14 FG Louisiana Derby(G2) Chart 1 1/16m 1:43:46 104

Past Performances
Workouts

Owners: Vinery Stables & Fox Hill Farm
Trainer: Larry Jones
Jockey: Gabriel Saez
Future Wager : 8-1
Record: 7-4-1-1
Best Beyer: 104
Lifetime Earnings: $603,265

Profile by Jim Kachulis
Strengths: This colt's seven-week layoff since his last victory will dissuade some bettors, while his most recent workout, a brilliant five-eighths over the Churchill Downs surface, will entice others. He has shown a superior rallying gear, especially in the last victory, when he easily dispatched Papa Clem, who subsequently won the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby in quality time. From world-class runner and sire A.P. Indy, Friesan Fire became a new horse with the addition of blinkers, and the middle moves he used in the last three victories were eye-catching.

Weaknesses: The major shortcomings to this talented performer are the lengthy hiatus and the fact that he has never faced Grade 1 competition. He has raced beyond a mile only twice and spots valuable experience in that department to some of the prime contenders.

Strategy: Already having proved himself an effective stalker, Friesan Fire would be in ideal position if he can stay within five lengths or so of the early leaders. If he can avoid traffic troubles or a dismal post position draw, he should be able to stay within range and launch a swift, and potent, midpack move.

Value: It is exceptionally difficult, even for an oddsmaker with decades of experience, to make an accurate morning line of a 20-horse field. It is estimated that Friesan Fire will go to post at approximately 8-1, making his odds offered in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (25-1, 21-1 and 18-1 in pools 1, 2, 3, respectively) seem quite the bargain.

Pedigree Analysis By Dan Illman
Dosage Profile: 5-12-17-0-0
Dosage Index: 3.00
Center of Distribution: 0.65
Auction: $725,000 RNA yearling

Sire: Arguably the best sire in North America, A.P. Indy won the Belmont Stakes with a 111 Beyer Speed Figure and the Breeders' Cup Classic with a 114 during his racing career. He has sired numerous stakes winners at classic distances including Coaching Club American Oaks winners Music Note and Jilbab, Alabama winners Runup the Colors and Sweet Symphony, Horse of the Year Mineshaft, Preakness and Travers winner Bernardini, Belmont Stakes heroine Rags to Riches, Jockey Club Gold Cup and Hollywood Gold Cup winner Aptitude, and Personal Ensign winner Tomisue's Delight.
A.P. Indy is by Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew out of a dam by Triple Crown winner Secretariat. He is a half-brother to Preakness winner Summer Squall.

Dam: Bollinger won the Group 1 Coolmore Classic at 7 1/2 furlongs on turf in her native Australia. Her half-brother, Mannington, won the Group 3 Blue Diamond Prelude at 5 1/2 furlongs.
Friesan Fire's second dam, Bint Marscay, won the Group 1 Toomey Golden Slipper Stakes at six furlongs.
Other notable horses from the female family include Kenny's Best Pal, the winner of the Cadbury Australian Guineas at one mile, and Filante, the winner of the Caulfield Stakes at 10 furlongs.

Outlook: Friesan Fire's pedigree presents an interesting dilemma to handicappers. There is obviously plenty of stamina on top with A.P. Indy, but the female side offers tons of speed influences. Friesan Fire has yet to race past 1 1/16 miles, but the presence of A.P. Indy coupled with the foreign class of the damside bloodlines allays fears somewhat.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-01-2009, 01:27 AM

General Quarters
2009 Prep Recap
Date Trk Race Chart Distance Time BSF Video
2/14 Tam Sam F. Davis (G3) Chart 1 1/16m 1:43 102
3/14 Tam Tampa Bay Derby (G3) Chart 1 1/16m 1:43 81
4/11 Kee Blue Grass (G1) Chart 1 1/8 m 1:49 95

Past Performances
Workouts

Owner: Thomas McCarthy
Trainer: Thomas McCarthy
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Future Wager : 17-1(f)
Record: 11-3-3-1
Best Beyer: 102
Lifetime Earnings: $641,735

Profile by Ron Gierkink
Strengths: With 11 starts under his girth, this hard-knocker has the most experience in the field. He hit the triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure plateau while romping in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa, and had a troubled trip when he finished fifth in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby. Those who like the synthetic-to-dirt angle should be delighted that he tuned up with a daylight victory over favored Hold Me Back in the Grade 1 Blue Grass over Keeneland's Polytrack.

Weaknesses: He has been competing regularly since early October, and might have attained his peak a race too soon. He reportedly finished slowly over a quick track in his April 23 work at Churchill. A son of Sky Mesa, he is bred for middle distances, and against this caliber of competition, 1 1/4 miles may be just beyond his range.

Strategy: He has done his optimum running from a stalking position, as evidenced by his two graded stakes scores. He should be forwardly placed, especially if the pace is on the slow side.

Value: The one-horse stable of a retired high school principal, General Quarters has garnered lots of publicity and might be overbet because of it. Less than 15-1 should not be considered as fair value on him.

Pedigree Analysis By Dan Illman
Dosage Profile: 5-8-9-2-0
Dosage Index: 2.69
Center of Distribution: 0.67
Auction: $20,000 yearling

Sire: Sky Mesa won all three of his starts as a juvenile including the Grade 1 Hopeful at seven furlongs, and the Grade 2 Lane's End Breeders' Futurity at 1 1/16 miles. He didn't win at three, but earned a career-best 106 Beyer when finishing second in the Grade 1 Haskell at nine furlongs.
Sky Mesa is a son of Pulpit, the Fountain of Youth and Blue Grass Stakes winner that finished fourth in the 1997 Kentucky Derby. Pulpit's sire, A.P. Indy, prevailed in the Belmont Stakes and Breeders' Cup Classic.

Dam: Ecology failed to place in two races. Her half-sister, Minimalist, was a stakes-winner at 1 1/16 miles on the grass.
General Quarters' second dam, Gdansk's Honour, won the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial at seven furlongs on grass in Ireland.
Other notable names in the female family include Honoria, a Group 3 winner in Ireland that foaled Jim Dandy hero Composer, and Targowice, a multiple Group 3 winner in France.

Outlook: It could be argued that General Quarters has already outrun his pedigree with wins in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at 1 1/16 miles and the Blue Grass Stakes at nine furlongs. There is a good deal of speed on both sides of this family tree, however. The tenth, and most demanding, furlong of the Kentucky Derby could give General Quarters some problems.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-01-2009, 01:28 AM

Hold Me Back
2009 Prep Recap
Date Trk Race Chart Distance Time BSF Video
3/21 TP Lane's End (G2) Chart 1 1/8 m 1:49.63 97
4/11 KEE Blue Grass (G1) Chart 1 1/8 m 1:49 93

Past Performances
Workouts

Owner: WinStar Farm LLC
Trainer: William Mott
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Future Wager : 24-1
Record: 5-3-1-0
Best Beyer: 97
Lifetime Earnings: $487,274

Dosage Profile: 5-6-9-0-0
Dosage Index: 3.44
Center of Distribution: 0.80
Auction: $400,000 yearling

Sire - After blistering through his first three starts as a juvenile with amazing ease, Giant's Causeway enjoyed a tremendous season as a three-year-old. After finishing second in both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas, Giant's Causeway ran the table in five straight Group 1 races between a mile and 1 5/16 miles on the grass. His only race on dirt, and in North America, came in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs. Giant's Causeway again ran a corker, but came up a neck shy to Tiznow despite putting up a 116 Beyer Speed Figure.
Giant's Causeway's progeny tend to do best on grass, but his sons, Fairbanks and Frost Giant, took last year's Hawthorne Gold Cup and Suburban Handicap respectively on dirt at 1 1/4 miles. Another son, Red Giant, won the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch at 1 1/4 miles on the grass in 2008 while Heatseeker won the Santa Anita Handicap at that distance over a synthetic surface. Shamardal, arguably the best son of Giant's Causeway, won the French Derby at About 1 5/16 miles.

Dam - Restraint, a $180,000 yearling purchase, was unraced. She has already foaled Maria Pia, a stakes-placed performer at 1 1/16 miles. Restraint is a half-sister to Freedom Fleet, a stakes-winner at 1 1/16 miles that finished second in the Queen's Plate at 1 1/4 miles. Stakes-winner Adarling, Grade 2-placed router Crown Collection, and stakes-placed sprinter Von Fleet are also half-siblings to Restraint.
Hold Me Back's second dam, Avowal, won eight stakes including the Canadian Oaks and the Grade 3 Ontario Colleen Stakes.
Other notables in the pedigree include multiple stakes-winners Ambiopoise and Algasir.

Outlook: Hold Me Back's pedigree coupled with his race record and long stride make him an ideal candidate to successfully handle 1 1/4 miles. His big races have come on synthetics and the Giant's Causeways may eventually do their best racing on turf and all-weather surfaces.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-01-2009, 01:28 AM

I Want Revenge
2009 Prep Recap
Date Trk Race Chart Distance Time BSF Video
2/7 SA Robert B Lewis (G2) Chart 1 1/16m 92
3/7 AQU Gotham (G3) Chart 1 1/16 m 1:42.65 113
4/4 AQU Wood Memorial (G1) Chart 1 1/8 m 1:49.49 103

Past Performances
Workouts

Owners: David J. Lanzman & IEAH Stables, Puglisi Racing, Charles Winner
Trainer: Jeff Mullins
Jockey: Joe Talamo
Future Wager : 9-2
Record: 8-3-1-4
Best Beyer: 113
Lifetime Earnings: $816,000

Profile by Randy Goulding
Strengths: Versatility has to be his main strength. Capable of winning from a stalking position, he showed that he can overcome trouble with his sensational win in the Wood. Despite all the trouble, he barely got out of a gallop, and he appears to be coming into the Derby as a pretty fresh horse. His strong four-furlong move on Tuesday is another positive sign that he is coming into the race in peak condition.

Weaknesses: Hard to find any. Some will argue that jockey Joe Talamo doesn't have enough experience. His tremendous ride in the Wood dispels that theory. There is also plenty of stamina in the colt's pedigree. The only knock is that Pioneerof the Nile beat him in two straight races in California. He appears to have improved since they met in the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis, however, and he obviously thrives on dirt.

Strategy: He has good tactical speed, and this could be the rare Derby where the early pace won't be all that quick. Expect Talamo to put him in a stalking position early, and then wait as long as he can before he sets him down. The best thing about him is that Talamo's hands aren't tied. If a quick pace does develop, he can strike from mid-pack.

Value: The potential favorite in a 20-horse field, he doesn't offer a lot of value in the win pool. Exotics are the place to go. I Want Revenge and Pioneerof the Nile will be the key horses. Dunkirk will probably be an underlay and Friesan Fire might offer the best value underneath.

Pedigree Analysis By Dan Illman
Dosage Profile: 5-8-13-0-0
Dosage Index: 3.00
Center of Distribution: 0.69
Auction: $95,000 RNA juvenile

Sire: Stephen Got Even won the nine-furlong Galleryfurniture.com Stakes in 1999 en route to finishing fourteenth on the first Saturday in May. He rebounded to take the Grade 1 Donn Handicap with an eye-opening 120 Beyer Speed Figure in his only start at four.
Stephen Got Even's sire, A.P. Indy, was one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby, but scratched on the morning of the race. He went on to win the Belmont Stakes at 1 1/2 miles and the Breeders' Cup Classic at 1 1/4 miles.
Stephen Got Even has sired Excellent Shine, the champion stayer in Puerto Rico. Excellent Shine has wins at distances up to 13 furlongs in his career. Don't Get Mad, a son of Stephen Got Even, finished fourth in the 2005 Derby.

Dam: Meguial began her career in her native Argentina, and she was Group 1-placed at 10 furlongs on the dirt there before being imported to North America. In the United States, she was multiple stakes-placed at 1 1/16 miles on dirt. Her career-best Beyer Speed Figure was the 86 earned when sixth and last behind Azeri in the Grade 1 Vanity Handicap at nine furlongs.

Outlook: I Want Revenge looked strong despite a terrible trip in the Wood Memorial at 1 1/8 miles, and acts like the extra furlong won't trouble him. His pedigree is solid for this distance.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-01-2009, 01:29 AM

Join in the Dance
2009 Prep Recap
Date Trk Race Chart Distance Time BSF Video
2/14 GP Allowance 37000 Chart 6 1/2 f 1:16 84 N/A
3/14 TAM Tampa Bay Derby (G3) Chart 1 1/16 m 1:43.67 90
4/11 Kee Blue Grass (G1) Chart 1 1/8 m 1:49 95

Past Performances
Workouts

Owners: Ballis Jake, Lewis R., Swinbank, R
Trainer: Todd A Pletcher
Jockey: Chris DeCarlo
Future Wager : 17-1
Record: 8-1-3-1
Best Beyer: 90
Lifetime Earnings: $164,220

Profile by Steve Grabowski
STRENGTHS: He has plenty of early foot, and the horses he’ll face in the Kentucky Derby don’t contain much of that commodity. He just failed to last after being pressed the entire way in his initial route try in the Tampa Bay Derby. He ran reasonably well over the Churchill Downs main track in his debut effort last year and he worked sharply over the track earlier in the week.

WEAKNESSES: Front-runners have rarely won the Kentucky Derby in recent years. With his lone win coming at 5 1/2 furlongs, this guy hasn’t shown he can carry his speed two turns. His lifetime best Beyer Speed Figure is a handful of lengths slower than what it would take to be competitive in here, and his trainer, though clearly one of the best in the country, has yet to saddle a Kentucky Derby winner.

STRATEGY: With a lack of early foot in here, he’s likely going to be pushed to the top from the opening bell in an attempt to take the Kentucky Derby field as far as he can go.

VALUE: He’s likely to be a big price and warrants token interest from speed backers, but regardless of how long the odds are, his chances of winning the Kentucky Derby appear to be rather slim. – Steve Grabowski

Pedigree Analysis by Dan Illman
Dosage Profile: 5-4-14-1-0
Dosage Index: 2.00
Center of Distribution: 0.54
Auction: $130,000 RNA yearling, $90,000 RNA juvenile

Sire: A Grade 1 winner at two, Sky Mesa hails from a powerful family. His dam, Caress, was a Grade 3 winner on both turf and dirt. Other quality runners from this family include graded winners Country Cat, Bernstein, Wiseman’s Ferry, and champion juvenile filly Outstandingly. Busanda, the dam of the legendary Buckpasser, is Sky Mesa’s fifth dam.
Sky Mesa won races at distances ranging from six furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.

Dam: Dance Darling, a $190,000 yearling purchase, was unraced, but several of her siblings earned blacktype. Darling Danzig went 4-4 in her career sprinting including a win in the Just Smashing Stakes at six furlongs. Misnomer won three stakes races between a mile and 1 1/16 miles.
Join in the Dance’s second dam, Danzig Darling, was a stakes-winning sprinter. Her three-quarter sister, Pennyhill Park, was a Grade 2 winner at 1 1/16 miles, and a Grade 3 winner at nine furlongs.

Outlook: Join in the Dance has some stamina in his pedigree, but the bloodlines seem geared more for sprints and middle distances. His only career win came at 5 ½ furlongs, and that is a far cry from the 1 ¼ miles of the Derby.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-01-2009, 01:30 AM

Mine That Bird
2009 Prep Recap
Date Trk Race Chart Distance Time BSF Video
2/28 SUN Borderland Derby Chart 1 1/16 m 1:43 81
3/29 SUN San Rafael (G3) Chart 1 1/8 m 1:50 80

Past Performances
Workouts

Owners: Double Eagle Ranch and Bueno Suerte E
Trainer: B L Woolley Jr.
Jockey: Calvin Borel
Future Wager : 17-1
Record: 8-4-1-0
Best Beyer: 81
Lifetime Earnings: $374,381

Profile by Kenny Peck
STRENGTHS: While he didn’t win the race, he showed two back in the Borderland Derby at Sunland Park that he handles a dirt surface and that he can stay close to the front if need be. He makes his third start off the layoff, which is many times the best effort of a horse’s form cycle. He’s shown that he likes to win, too, capturing 4 of 8 career starts.

WEAKNESSES: His best efforts have come on synthetic surfaces, and even those efforts produced Beyer Speed Figures that are inadequate for a race like this. His lone try against top-notch horses came in the Breeders’ Cup last year, and he was no threat there. Unless he somehow suddenly jumps up and improves by several lengths, he figures to have a good deal of trouble finishing in the top half of this field.

STRATEGY: He has a hint of speed, and that should come in handy if the fractions are controlled, which is certainly a plausible scenario. His best chance of getting a check would seem to be to get the jump on the closers and stalk the leaders, in the hopes that slow splits hinder the efforts of those runners looking to pass him in the lane.

VALUE: He could well be the longest shot on the board, but that doesn’t necessarily translate to value since he’s very unlikely to find his way into the trifecta. Longshot players and those looking to juice up the superfecta will of course consider him based solely on the huge price, but it’s difficult to envision a scenario where he plays a major part in the outcome of this race.

Pedigree Analysis by Dan Illman
Dosage Profile: 8-3-5-0-0
Dosage Index: 5.40
Center of Distribution: 1.19
Auction: $9,500 yearling

Sire: The diminutive Birdstone spoiled the Smarty Triple Crown Party by upending heavily-favored Smarty Jones in the 2004 Belmont Stakes. That race was no fluke. Birdstone had won the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at a one-turn 1 1/16 miles as a juvenile, and would go on to score in the Midsummer Derby, the Travers Stakes, at 1 1/4 miles.
Birdstone is a half-sister to Kentucky Oaks winner Bird Town, and has two foals from his first crop in this year's Derby field.

Dam: Mining My Own was unraced, but her half-brother, Golden Sunray, won the Poinciana Breeders' Cup Handicap at seven furlongs by 13 lengths with a 107 Beyer Speed Figure.
Mine That Bird's second dam, Aspenelle, finished second in the Canadian Oaks at nine furlongs over sloppy going.
Aspanelle's dam, Little to Do, was a multiple stakes-winner in Canada.

Outlook: Mine That Bird looks like a longshot on paper, but his pedigree is pretty solid. There is some speed on the bottom half, but Birdstone should give him enough stamina to handle the trip.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-01-2009, 01:31 AM

Mr. Hot Stuff
2009 Prep Recap
Date Trk Race Chart Distance Time BSF Video
1/17 SA Maiden Special Weight 47K Chart 1 1/16m 1:44 71 N/A
2/1 SA Maiden Special Weight 46K Chart 1 m 1:44 96 N/A
2/28 SA Sham Stakes Chart 1 1/8m 1:47 90
4/4 SA Santa Anita Derby (G1) Chart 1 1/8m 1:49 93

Past Performances
Workouts

Owners: WinStar Farm LLC
Trainer: Eoin Harty
Jockey: John Velazquez
Future Wager : 96-1
Record: 7-1-0-3
Best Beyer: 96
Lifetime Earnings: $150,560

Profile by Byron King
STRENGTHS: Being by two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow and a full brother to Travers winner Colonel John, he has the pedigree to love the Derby’s 1 1/4-mile distance. He also finishes like a horse that should love the stretch-out in distance. When racing in the paceless 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby, he finished strongest to be third, and galloped out well past the finish. A late developer, he has taken great strides in recent months and could have room for more improvement.

WEAKNESSES: The talent is there, but trainer Eoin Harty has said the colt is still learning the game. Heading into a race like the Derby, Mr. Hot Stuff can’t afford any mental mistakes. Like others in the field, most notably Pioneerof the Nile, he has not raced on a dirt track. Unless he jumps up on dirt as I Want Revenge did, Mr. Hot Stuff does not appear fast enough to win. His top Beyer Speed Figure is just a 96, and he posted merely a 93 Beyer in his final Derby prep, the Santa Anita Derby.

STRATEGY: Being a closer, the tactics are simple: sit back and make a late run, hopefully following a horse moving well in front of him and avoiding a wide trip.

VALUE: Here is where the news is promising – for those with faith. He closed at 96-1 in the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool. Although he won’t be that fat of a price on Derby Day, he should be 30-1 or higher.

Pedigree Analysis by Dan Illman
Dosage Profile: 4-1-9-0-0
Dosage Index: 2.11
Center of Distribution: 0.64
Auction: $200,000 yearling

Sire: The late-blooming California-bred Tiznow emerged from relative obscurity to become one of the more popular racers in recent years. A true stayer, Tiznow won back-to-back runnings of the Breeders' Cup Classic, and also took home the big trophy in the Santa Anita Handicap. He earned Beyer Speed Figures of 115 or greater in five races, and won four of five starts at 1 1/4 miles.
Not surprisingly, many of Tiznow's progeny excel in longer-distance races. Well Armed won the Dubai World Cup at 1 1/4 Miles. Da'Tara upset Big Brown's Triple Crown dreams in last year's Belmont Stakes. Tizdejavu went gate-to-wire in the Grade 2 American Derby at 1 3/16 miles on the grass in 2008.
Tiznow is a full brother to Budroyale, a $2.8M earner that finished second to Cat Thief in the 1999 Breeders' Cup Classic.

Dam: Sweet Damsel, a $9,500 yearling that resold for $41,000 the following season, won five races at one mile. She has already foaled Caroline's Gold, a stakes-placed runner at 1 1/16 miles, but her most famous baby is Colonel John. A full brother to Mr. Hot Stuff, Colonel John finished sixth in last year's Kentucky Derby after winning the Sham Stakes and Santa Anita Derby at nine furlongs. Colonel John shipped to Saratoga over the summer to win the Grade 1 Travers at 1 1/4 miles before finishing sixth in the Breeders' Cup Classic.
Mr. Hot Stuff's second dam, Grande Dame, was a stakes-winner, and her dam, Fia, finished third in the 1977 Coaching Club American Oaks.

Outlook: Mr. Hot Stuff is still a bit green, and he has yet to race on anything but synthetic surfaces, but his full brother handled both the distance and surface just fine in last year's Travers. Mr. Hot Stuff shouldn't have a problem with the trip.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-01-2009, 01:31 AM

Musket Man
2009 Prep Recap
Date Trk Race Chart Distance Time BSF Video
1/17 TAM Pasco Chart 7 fur. 1:23.06 92
2/14 TAM Sam F. Davis (G3) Chart 1 1/16 m 1:43.54 91
3/14 TAM Tampa Bay Derby (G3) Chart 1 1/16 m 1:43.67 90
4/4 HAW Illinois Derby (G2) Chart 1 1/8 m 1:49.91 98

Past Performances
Workouts

Owners: Eric Fein & Vic Carlson
Trainer: Derek Ryan
Jockey: Eibar Coa
Future Wager : 25-1
Record: 6-5-0-1
Best Beyer: 98
Lifetime Earnings: $572,600

Profile by Marcus Hersh
STRENGTHS: He has won 5 of 6 starts, and is a proven winner. He has a 2-year-old foundation and has run in four stakes at3, winning at nine furlongs while going his final eighth-mile in about 12.60 seconds in his Derby prep. Has won at four venues, strongly suggesting he carries his track with him. He has beaten Giant Oak, who qualified for the Derby on earnings but passed, and two Derby horses, General Quarters and Join in the Dance.

WEAKNESSES: He has yet to face any of the perceived top contenders. He is a May foal. He’s won at nine furlongs but has a middle-distance pedigree that could trip him up at 1 1/4 miles. He has not impressed clockers with Churchill drills or gallops.

STRATEGY: Trainer Derek Ryan calls Musket Man “an easy horse to ride,” and Ryan should know, since he sometimes gallops the horse himself. Musket Man has tactical speed and should be placed in the second flight. With the apparent lack of speed horses, he could be as close as fifth down the backstretch, but it would be no surprise if he’s eighth to 10th, either. Jockey Eibar Coa said the horse responds quickly when asked. Coa thought Musket Man eased up late in the Illinois Derby. He figures to move for position on the far turn and will try not to hit the front too soon in the stretch – provided he can hit it at all.

VALUE: With low-profile connections, no triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures, and little buzz in terms of morning training, Musket Man will almost certainly offer a fair price.

Pedigree Analysis by Dan Illman
Dosage Profile: 5-1-4-0-0
Dosage Index: 4.00
Center of Distribution: 1.10
Auction: $15,000 yearling, $35,000 RNA juvenile

Sire: Yonaguska was a brilliant sprinter. He won the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes in a dead-heat with City Zip as a juvenile, and then won three graded stakes between 6 and 7 furlongs the following season. He earned a career-best 107 Beyer Speed Figure in winning the Grade 3 Sport Page Handicap at 6 1/2 furlongs. Yonaguska raced three times in routes. His best finish going long was a third in the Grade 1 Champagne around a one-turn mile and a sixteenth.
Yonaguska's sire, Cherokee Run, finished second in the 1993 Preakness.

Dam: Fortuesque earned blacktype when being put up to third via disqualification in the Susan's Girl division of the Florida Stallion Stakes at six furlongs. She raced once past a mile in her career, finishing last of five in a $32,000 optional claimer.
Notable names deep in the female family include Silent Screen, the third-place finisher of the 1970 Preakness Stakes, Grade 3 winner Belladora, Test Stakes winner Time for Bed, Ashland Stakes winner Drowsy, and Spinaway Stakes winner Sunday Evening.

Outlook: Musket Man has been a terrific surprise for his connections, but the clock may strike midnight on this Cinderella story in the Derby. He appeared tired when switching back to his wrong lead in the waning moments of the nine-furlong Illinois Derby, and his sprint pedigree looks ill-suited for the Derby distance.

**StarDust Bum** · 05-01-2009, 01:32 AM

Nowhere to Hide
2009 Prep Recap
Date Trk Race Chart Distance Time BSF Video
2/7 FG Risen Star (G3) Chart 1 1/16m 1:45 90
3/14 TAM Tampa Bay Derby (G3) Chart 1 1/16 m 1:43 84
4/4 HAW Illinois Derby (G2) Chart 1 1/8 m 1:49 80

Past Performances
Workouts

Owners: My Meadowview Farm
Trainer: Nick Zito
Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan
Future Wager : 17-1
Record: 8-1-2-1
Best Beyer: 95
Lifetime Earnings: $100,099

Profile by Kenny Peck
Strengths: He's proven at two turns as his maiden win came in a mile race at Calder, and though he's failed in three starts since, he was less than four lengths behind Friesan Fire in the Risen Star Stakes, and that one is a viable candidate to win. He figures to move forward off his last race. He has a hint of speed, so he should be able to work out a forward trip, and that could be a plus if the pace is on the slow side.

Weaknesses: He has yet to post a Beyer good enough to get him into the superfecta, and it's probably no coincidence that his latest, the Illinois Derby, resulted in his weakest figure since his debut, as it was also the first time he went farther than 1 1/16 miles. That was a weak field. The winner, Musket Man, was the only other Derby starter in the field. That runner is an outsider here, and this colt was more than 11 lengths behind him.

Strategy: He was well off the pace in his last couple, but he showed some early zip in his prior starts. Given the relative lack of pace in the Derby he'd do well to utilize his early speed to get position. He figures to stalk the leaders and try to make a run at the top of the lane.

Value: He'll be a huge price thanks to the fact that he has only a maiden win, and that his Beyers aren't nearly as good as the top contenders. Hard to like.

Pedigree Analysis By Dan Illman
Dosage Profile: 8-0-12-0-0
Dosage Index: 2.33
Center of Distribution: 0.80
Auction: $200,000 weanling, $250,000 yearling

Sire: Vindication, the champion 2-year-old colt of 2002, capped off an undefeated season with a 102 Beyer victory in the nine-furlong Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Arlington Park. An injury ended his career before the start of his three-year-old campaign.
His sire, the legendary Seattle Slew, won the Triple Crown in 1977. Seattle Slew's son, Swale, won the 1984 Kentucky Derby.

Dam: The unraced dam is a half-sister to Handpainted, a multiple stakes-winner between five furlongs and one mile. Another half-sibling, Serenading, is a stakes-winner at 1 1/16 miles over Woodbine's polytrack.
Nowhere to Hide's second dam, Daijin, was a multiple stakes-winner between six furlongs and 1 1/16 miles. Daijin is a full sister to Belmont Stakes winner Touch Gold, and is a half-sibling to Canadian Triple Crown hero With Approval.
The third and fourth dam were stakes-winners in Canada. The fifth dam, Happy Mood, won the Acorn Stakes in 1954.

Outlook: Nowhere to Hide has a very classy pedigree. The Derby distance is a demanding one, but Nowhere to Hide should last the trip.

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