Thursday Trends and Indexes 4/30 (NBA, MLB, NHL, Misc.)

[pm530]

MLB


Thursday, April 30

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Tips and Trends
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Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays [MLB | 7:05 PM ET]

Red Sox (-115, O/U 9): The Red Sox are the hottest team in baseball with 12 wins in 13 games. Josh Beckett (2-1, 6.00) will try to beat the Rays for the second time this year. Beckett allowed one run over seven innings on April 7th as the Red Sox opened the season with a 5-3 victory, improving the right-hander to 6-3 with a 2.93 ERA in 11 career starts versus Tampa Bay. Beckett gave up eight runs over five innings and did not get a decision in his last outing, a 16-11 win over the New York Yankees on Saturday. Boston's bullpen has pitched extremely well this season (2.19 ERA).

The Red Sox are 11-0 in their last 11 games as a favorite.
The Red Sox are 12-1 in their last 13 overall.

Key Injuries - OF J.D. Drew (quad) is QUESTIONABLE.
1B Kevin Youkilis (back) is QUESTIONABLE.
SS Julio Lugo (knee) is QUESTIONABLE.
SS Jed Lowrie (wrist) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)

Rays: The AL East champion Rays went 8-1 at home versus Boston in 2008, but they are struggling this season. "We're not really pleased with what's going on, there's no question about that," manager Joe Maddon said. "We should have been able to win more than one series to this point. But it's early. It truly is early and I'm very optimistic that we can turn this around." Matt Garza is 6-1 with a 2.91 ERA in 8 starts against Boston including the postseason. He earned a 4-3 victory at Boston on April 9 by yielding 1 run over 7 innings. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 6.38 ERA in 3 outings since that win.

The Under is 11-1 in the Rays' last 12 games as a home underdog.
The Rays are 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in Tampa Bay.

Key Injuries - SS Jason Bartlett (hamstring) is PROBABLE.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3

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[pm530]

MLB


Thursday, April 30

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Hot lines: Today’s best MLB bets
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Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees (-220, 10)

After waiting for New York’s six-game road swing to finish, total bettors are anxiously waiting to see if there is any truth to the wind tunnel in right field of the new Yankee Stadium.

Even if the winds aren’t swirling about, bettors backing the over should feel pretty good with Yankees starter A.J. Burnett taking the bump. The offseason addition blew up in his most recent start against the Boston Red Sox.

Burnett looked great through the first three innings of his Saturday appearance before buckling for eight runs in the fourth and fifth innings. The right hander served up two home runs and spoiled a six-run Yankees lead. New York battled back but the bullpen allowed eight more runs to lose 16-11.

“It’s unacceptable,” Burnett told the New York Times. “To have the stuff I had out there today and the offense that we had out there today, the bullpen should have never even been in that game.”

Burnett has served up four dingers in his last two starts and has a 5-to-10 strikeout-to-walk count in those contests which were recorded as no decisions. In his last start versus the Angels, Burnett gave up six earned runs on 12 hits, two of which were home runs, in an 8-2 loss as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays last July.

Pick: Over



Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers (-110, 9)

The Brew Crew have shaken the Voodoo curse that plagued their bats for the first few weeks of the season. Milwaukee was averaging just four runs per game to open the year, going 3-8 in its first 11 games of 2009.

The Brewers have won have won seven of their last nine games (10-10 on the season heading into Wednesday’s series finale with the Pirates) behind an offense putting up almost five and a half runs per night. They’re hitting .296 BA over the past week and have knocked 12 balls out of the park.

"We dug ourselves a little bit of a hole in the beginning of the year, so you always feel good about .500,” manager Ken Macha told reporters. “You feel better if you continue to play well. The last 15 games, we've played pretty well for the most part."

Outfielders Ryan Braun and Corey Hart are seeing the ball during this streak along with second baseman Rickie Weeks. Slugger Prince Fielder is still slumping, batting just .225 BA, but has nine hits in his last seven games including chugging for his sixth-career triple in Monday’s 10-5 win over Pittsburgh.

Pick: Milwaukee

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[pm530]

MLB


Thursday, April 30

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Streaking and Slumping Pitchers
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Streaking

Gil Meche, Kansas City Royals

The Royals’ surprise start to the 2009 campaign is directly related to the outstanding performances of their top three pitchers.

Meche didn’t give up a single run in one of the worst pitcher parks and against one of the best hitting clubs last week. The former Mariner struck out six batters in Kansas City’s easy 12-3 win over the Rangers.

The outing lowered Meche’s ERA to 2.25 and his WHIP (walks + hits per inning) to 1.15. K.C. is 2-1 this season in games the righty takes the hill and 5-1 dating back to last season.

Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers haven’t needed too much help from their pitchers so far this season because of the club’s excellent run production. Their hurlers are still doing a good job - particularly staff ace Chad Billingsley.

The 24-year-old righty is 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA in three starts this year. He struck 11 batters in his second outing and opponents are hitting a modest .234 off the former 16-game winner.


Slumping

Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies

Last year’s dream season that ended with a World Series championship and MVP trophy has been followed by a nightmarish start to 2009 for Hamels.

The southpaw missed time during spring training and wasn’t able to pitch Philly’s season opener because of a sore elbow. He’s started two games this season and hasn’t looked like himself in either appearance.

Hamels has given up four homers in 9 2-3 innings and the Phillies are 0-2 in his starts this season. Batters are hitting .447 off Hamels resulting in a lofty 11.17 ERA for the staff ace.

Adam Eaton, Baltimore Orioles

Eaton wouldn’t be heading out to the bump on Thursday if the O’s had any depth to their starting rotation. But because finding a decent arm in Baltimore is like finding a lawn chair in the North Pole, Eaton’s job is safe… for the moment.

The former Padre prospect hasn’t pitched past the fourth inning in either of his two starts. Like Hamels, Eaton has a double-digit ERA (11.25) attached to his 2009 stat sheet, along with a 0-2 record and .477 OBP (opponent batting percentage).

Dating back to last season, the over is 7-0 in Eaton’s last seven appearances (two relief, five starting).

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[pm530]

MLB
Baseball Today


SCOREBOARD

Thursday, April 30

Boston at Tampa Bay (7:08 p.m. EDT). The Red Sox face the AL East-rival Rays in a rematch of last season’s AL championship series.

STARS

Wednesday

— Nick Swisher and Joba Chamberlain, Yankees. Swisher hit two homers and Chamberlain gave up a run in seven innings, leading New York to an 8-6 win over Detroit.

— Jonathan Van Every, Red Sox, hit his first major league home run in the 10th inning, lifting Boston to a 6-5, comeback win over Cleveland.

— Billy Butler, Royals, had two homers among his four hits and had four RBIs as Kansas City beat Toronto 11-3.

— Yovani Gallardo, Brewers, struck out a career-high 11, homered in the seventh inning and Milwaukee swept Pittsburgh with a 1-0 victory.

— Doug Davis, Diamondbacks, allowed two hits over seven innings and struck out seven in Arizona’s 10-0 rout of the Chicago Cubs.

— Edinson Volquez, Reds, allowed only one hit—retiring 17 in a row at one point—through eight innings, leading Cincinnati to a 3-0 victory over Houston.

— Anderson Hernandez, Nationals, had three hits and drove in two runs for Washington in a 4-1 win over Philadelphia that snapped the Phillies’ win streak at five.

— Bengie Molina, Giants, had a homer, a two-run triple and an RBI single in San Francisco’s 9-4 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers.

STREAK STOPPED

Zack Greinke’s streak of consecutive innings without allowing an earned run was stopped at 43. Toronto’s Vernon Wells hit a two-out RBI single in the first inning off the Kansas City right-hander. Greinke and former Los Angeles Dodgers great Fernando Valenzuela are the only pitchers since the early 1900s to not allow an earned run through their first four starts of a season. Greinke had not allowed an earned run since Sept. 13, 2008, against Cleveland, a span of six starts. The Royals beat the Blue Jays 11-3.

A-ROD’S RETURN

Alex Rodriguez could rejoin the Yankees within 10 days, according to the doctor who operated on his hip on March 9. Dr. Marc Philippon watched the three-time AL MVP’s on-field workout Wednesday at the Yankees’ minor league complex and said Rodriguez could return to the majors ahead of his May 15 target date.

LET’S SEE THAT AGAIN

Umpires used video replay to review a home run by the New York Mets’ Fernando Tatis, upholding his go-ahead shot against the Florida Marlins. With the score tied at 2, Tatis led off the sixth inning and drove an 0-1 pitch from Josh Johnson to left field. A fan reached over the railing above the high fence in an attempt to catch the ball, which ricocheted back onto the field. Second-base umpire Dale Scott signaled home run almost immediately, but Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez came out to argue for fan interference.

LET’S PLAY EVERY DAY

Milwaukee beat Pittsburgh 1-0 and has won 15 straight over the Pirates, a streak that goes back to May 22 of last season. It’s the longest winning streak by one team over another since Oakland beat Seattle 15 straight times in 2006.

SO THAT’S WHAT IT’S LIKE

The Angels’ Shane Loux gave up one run and five hits in six-plus innings for his first victory since Sept. 24, 2003, with Detroit. It was the fourth start of the season for the right-hander, who entered with a 6.61 ERA. The Angels beat Baltimore 3-2.

SLUMP-BUSTING BLASTS

Slumping Carlos Quentin, in a 4-for-30 slide, and Jermaine Dye, in a 1-for-13 slump, hit consecutive homers in the seventh inning of the White Sox’s 6-3 win over Seattle.

OUCH

Koji Uehara left in the seventh inning of the Orioles’ 3-2 loss to the Angels after being struck in the chest by a line drive off the bat of Gary Matthews Jr. After falling to his knees in obvious pain, Baltimore’s first Japanese-born player slowly rose to his feet and walked off the field. The injury was determined to be a bruised sternum. X-rays were negative. … Twins shortstop Jason Bartlett left their 8-3 win over Tampa in the fifth inning with tightness in his left hamstring. … Cardinals shortstop Brendan Ryan left St. Louis’ 5-3 win over the Braves in the fifth inning because of tightness in his left hamstring. … Third baseman Pablo Sandoval left the San Francisco Giants’ 9-4 win against Los Angeles with tightness in his left groin.

SIDELINED

Indians designated hitter Travis Hafner was placed on the disabled list with a sore right shoulder, an injury that limited him to 57 games last season. Hafner had surgery on the shoulder last October. He is batting .270 with four homers and eight RBIs in 17 games.

STATS

Adrian Gonzalez homered twice for San Diego in a 7-5 loss to Colorado and has nine homers in April, a Padres record for the month. … The Braves lost 5-3 to St. Louis and have scored three runs or fewer in 11 of 15 games after scoring at least four runs in each of their first six games.

SPEAKING

“This has got to be the top so far in my career. It’s definitely a special day. I spent seven years of my career trying to figure out a way to get to this point. Luckily, I’m here. It couldn’t have happened at a better time.”—Red Sox outfielder Jonathan Van Every, who hit his first big league homer in the 10th inning to lift Boston to a 6-5 win over Cleveland.

SEASONS

April 30

1903—The New York Highlanders won their home opener at Hilltop Park, 6-2 over Washington.

1919—Philadelphia’s Joe Oeschger and Brooklyn’s Burleigh Grimes pitched complete games in a 9-9, 20-inning tie. Both teams scored three runs in the 19th inning. Oeschger gave up 22 hits and walked five, while Grimes allowed 15 hits and walked five.

1922—Charlie Robertson of the Chicago White Sox pitched a 2-0 perfect game against the Detroit Tigers. Johnny Mostil, playing left field for the only time, made two outstanding catches.

1940—James “Tex” Carleton of the Brooklyn Dodgers threw a 3-0 no-hitter at Cincinnati.

1946—Bob Feller struck out 11 New York Yankees en route to his second of three career no-hitters, a 1-0 victory at Yankee Stadium.

1961—Willie Mays of the San Francisco Giants hit four home runs in a 14-4 victory over the Braves in Milwaukee.

1967—Steve Barber and Stu Miller of the Baltimore Orioles combined on a no-hitter in a 2-1 loss to the Detroit Tigers in the first game of a doubleheader. Barber pitched 8 2-3 innings and Miller one-third of an inning.

1969—Jim Maloney of the Cincinnati Reds struck out 13 en route to a 10-0 no-hitter over the Houston Astros, the third of his career.

1988—New York and Cincinnati hooked up in a wild game at Riverfront Stadium that the Mets pulled out 6-5, on a delayed call by first base umpire Dave Pallone. The call resulted in a $10,000 fine and 30-day suspension of Reds manager Pete Rose when Pallone accidentally poked Rose in the cheek and Rose shoved Pallone twice.

1999—About 3,000 fans wearing T-shirts that said, “$hare the wealth” protested baseball economics at the Yankees-Royals game. The protesters turned their backs when the Yankees batted, then walked out of Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium during the fourth inning. The Yankees began the season with baseball’s top payroll at $85.05 million, and the Royals were 25th at $23.8 million.

2002—Al Leiter cruised through seven three-hit innings in the New York Mets’ 10-1 rout of Arizona to become the first pitcher to beat all 30 teams in the majors.

2002—Texas Rangers shortstop Alex Rodriguez became the second-youngest player to reach 250 homers a 10-3 win over the Toronto Blue Jays. Only Jimmie Foxx was younger.

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[pm530]

NHL
Dunkel Index


Chicago at Vancouver
The Blackhawks open in Vancouver against a Canucks team that is just 2-5 in its last 7 games as a home favorite between -110 and -150. Chicago is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+130). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

THURSDAY, APRIL 30

Chicago at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.320; Vancouver 11.937
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+130); Under


FRIDAY, MAY 1

Anaheim at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.020; Detroit 11.960
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-250); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-250); Over

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[pm530]

NHL
Long Sheet


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Thursday, April 30
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CHICAGO (50-27-0-11, 111 pts.) at VANCOUVER (49-27-0-10, 108 pts.) - 4/30/2009, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 64-121 ATS (+215.5 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5 or less since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 18-13 ATS (+0.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CHICAGO is 10-3 ATS (+6.4 Units) in April games this season.
CHICAGO is 27-13 ATS (+41.1 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 24-11 ATS (+9.0 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more this season.
CHICAGO is 25-10 ATS (+11.1 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.
CHICAGO is 45-39 ATS (+98.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
VANCOUVER is 19-32 ATS (-29.8 Units) in home games in April games since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 134-145 ATS (-72.4 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 7-13 ATS (-14.9 Units) in home games when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 3 seasons.
VANCOUVER is 52-77 ATS (-37.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
VANCOUVER is 8-4 (+2.1 Units) against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
VANCOUVER is 8-4-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.7 Units)
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[pm530]

NHL
Short Sheet


Thursday, April 30th

Western Conference Playoffs - Semifinals
Game One
Series Tied, 0-0
Chicago at Vancouver, 9:05 ET

Chicago:
24-11 SU after a win by 2+ goals
25-10 SU after scoring 4+ goals

Vancouver:
7-13 SU at home when playing with 3+ days rest
4-15 SU coming off an OT win

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[pm530]

NHL
Write-up


Thursday, April 30

NHL Playoffs

Vancouver swept Blues in four straight, while Chicago needed six games to dispatch Calgary, outscoring Flames 9-2 in last two games. Vancouver is 12-4 against Chicago the last four years, but teams split four contests this season. Blackhawks lost six of last eight visits to British Columbia, as well as six of last eight serues games played here. Under is 9-3-3 in last fifteen series games, 5-1-1 in last seven games here. Blues were just 1-24 on power play vs Vancouver in the first round.

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[pm530]

NHL


Thursday, April 30

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Trend Sheet
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9:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. VANCOUVER
Chicago is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Vancouver is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games when playing Chicago
Vancouver is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Chicago

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[pm530]

NHL


Thursday, April 30

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Ice Picks: NHL best bets
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Chicago Blackhawks at Vancouver Canucks (-150, 5)

The Chicago Blackhawks' last game against the Vancouver Canucks featured a third-period line brawl that had everything from WWF-style body slams to hair pulling.

So it's safe to say they won't have to wait for the hatred to build when their second-round playoff series starts Thursday night in Vancouver.

"Obviously we have dislike for them," said Canucks defenseman Kevin Bieksa, who was bleeding, his undershirt torn, after a spirited scrap that included Ben Eager picking him up by the pants and slamming him to the ice. "Is it more than some teams? Maybe, but it will make for a good series."

The ugly ending to that last meeting a month ago started when big Blackhawks forward Dustin Byfuglien caught star goalie Roberto Luongo in the mask with his glove after being stopped on a partial breakaway.

By the time things settled, Vancouver defenseman Shane O'Brien had been taken hard to the ice by a referee trying to keep him away from Adam Burish, who was challenging top-line forwards Daniel and Henrik Sedin, and Canucks agitator Alex Burrows was caught on tape twice grabbing a handful of Duncan Keith's long hair and pulling hard.

Head coaches Alain Vigneault and Joel Quenneville were screaming at each other from their benches as the officials handed out 80 minutes in penalties and misconducts - though strangely none to Burrows.

Both sides were downplaying the brawl heading into their Western Conference semifinal, but everyone expected the physical play to continue.

"If somebody wants to get in my face I'm going to get right back in there face, Burish said. "I enjoy that confrontation, it doesn't matter who it is, whether it's their best player or the guy on the bottom of the depth chart."

The Canucks also pledged to continue the intense, hard-nosed style that marked their four-game sweep of St. Louis in the first round, but say they will have to do so without taking penalties. Vancouver killed off 23 of 24, including three lengthy 5-on-3s, while knocking off the Blues and leads the playoffs in penalty killing after finishing 16th in the regular season. Chicago has the second best playoff power play, with seven goals on 24 chances.

"We can't take 24 penalties in four games, that's going to kill us," Burrows said. "There will be physical play, but I wouldn't bet on a line brawl right off the bat. We have to take a punch to get a penalty and make sure we go on the power play instead of going on the PK all the time."

Physical play will be nothing new for the young Blackhawks, who saw plenty of intimidation attempts from the more experienced but injury-riddled Calgary in the first round. Despite some wobbles while losing Games 3 and 4 on the road, Chicago handled it well, securing its first playoff series victory in 13 years with a 4-1 victory in Game 6 on Tuesday night in Calgary.

Pick: Over

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[Kaptain]

as always, thanks Fellows