Thursday Trends and Indexes 4/30 (NBA, MLB, NHL, Misc.)

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes

Thursday, April 30

Good Luck on day #120 of 2009!

At this time the sports menu in this thread consists of the NBA, MLB, and the NHL until their seasons are played out. Also, general sports news and notes will be posted here.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.
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[pm530]

Daily Sports Roundup

Thursday, April 30

Today in the Daily Sports Roundup: The NBA continues the first round of its playoffs, the NHL begins its second round, and Tiger Woods gets back in action.

Tipping off on the hardwood . . .

There are three games on the NBA's postseason slate for Thursday night, with the Celtics, Magic, and Rockets all holding 3-2 leads in the best-of-seven series.

The Celtics and Bulls get things going in Chicago at 7:00pm ET, with Boston coming off a 106-104 overtime home win in Game 5 on Tuesday night. Rajon Rondo paced the Celtics' attack with 28 points and 11 assists in that contest, while Paul Pierce chipped in with 26 points of his own. Ben Gordon played through his strained hamstring to score 26 points in a losing cause for the Bulls.

The other two matchups have Orlando at Philadelphia and Portland at Houston. The Magic grabbed their series advantage with a 91-78 home win over the Sixers on Tuesday night. Dwight Howard had 24 points and 24 rebounds in that win, but will sit out Game 6 because of the elbow he threw to the head of Sam Dalembert. The Blazers got back into their series with an 88-77 win at home in Game 5 on Tuesday. Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge each had 25 points in that victory.

Meeting up on the diamond . . .

The Red Sox will send Josh Beckett to the mound on the road against the Rays on Thursday night in one of just four games on the American League schedule. The righthander was pounded for eight earned runs on 10 hits over five innings of work vs. the Yankees last time out but wound up with a no-decision; he's 2-1 on the season with a 6.00 ERA. Countering for Tampa Bay will be righthander Matt Garza, who enters Thursday night's start with a 1-2 record and a 4.97 ERA.

Also on tap for Thursday in the Junior Circuit: Oakland at Texas, Toronto at Kansas City, and the Angels at the Yankees. Meanwhile, the National League offers up St. Louis at Washington, Arizona at Milwaukee, San Diego at the Dodgers, and Florida at the Cubs. Marlins starter Chris Volstad has looked good to start the season - he's 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA through four outings. The righthander held the Phillies to two earned runs in seven innings in his last start.

Taking a trip around the rink . . .

The second round of the National Hockey League playoffs begin on Thursday night in Vancouver, with the Canucks playing host to the Blackhawks. The home side has had plenty of time to rest up for this series after dispatching the Blues in just four games in the opening round. The Hawks, meanwhile, took care of the Flames in six games in the first round, clinching the set with a 4-1 win Monday. These teams split their four-game series during the regular season, although the Canucks beat the Hawks by a combined 11-3 score over their last two matchups.

Rounding out the Roundup . . .

Finally, Tiger Woods returns to the links on Thursday morning for the Quail Hollow Championship in Charlotte. Woods won this event back in 2007 (when it was still called the Wachovia Championship) and he's pegged as the 2/1 Vegas favorite to take the trophy again this weekend. Phil Mickelson is right behind him on that list at 8/1 odds, and Geoff Ogilvy in third on the Vegas chart at 15/1 odds.

Defending-champion Anthony Kim is then tied with Padraig Harrington at 20/1 odds to win the Quail Hollow Championship; Kim topped Ben Curtis by five strokes to score the victory last year. Other past champs and their odds to win this week: Jim Furyk (25/1), Vijay Singh (30/1), David Toms (35/1). Camilo Villegas, Nick Watney, and Sean O'Hair are also listed at 30/1 to grab the victory.

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[pm530]

Six-pack for Thursday

-- Zach Greinke is 5-0, 0.50 after beating the Blue Jays 11-3.

-- Mark Teixeira has 13 hits this year; he's walked 16 times, so his .197 batting average is awful but his .365 on-base % is pretty good.

-- Red Sox rallied from 5-0 deficit to beat Indians 6-5 in the 10th. Reserve OF Van Every had GW homer and a diving catch in right.

-- 13 of 25 batters reached base against Kazmir in 8-3 loss to Twins Wednesday; Rays are in a funk, face Red Sox at home Thursday.

-- Florida scored twice in 8th inning to beat Mets 4-3; Marlins lost seven of last nine games, are still atop NL East. Go figure.

--.Bronx C Molina had sacrifice bunt and HR in same inning in 11-0 win Tuesday, first AL player to do that since Sal Bando (1975)

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Late Night Update

-- Tim Lincecum blanked Dodgers for seven innings, then tired in the 8th, but beat LA, 9-4. He has 33 strikeouts in his last 23 IP.

-- Hornets were tied at the half in Denver Wednesday, after getting humiliated by 58 points in Game 4 at home, but still lost 107-86 to the Nuggets and were mercifully eliminated in five quick games.

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Thursday's List of 13: Random stuff on the last day of April....

13) Winner of the Celtics-Bulls series will be only city that still has a team left in both the NHL and NBA playoffs.

12) At last count, Vanderbilt has eleven guys on NFL rosters; five of them play for the Bears. Someone needs to tell the Bears it would be better to have 45% of the USC or LSU guys in the NFL than 45% of the perennial-loser Commodores (I know, they finally won a bowl in December, but still..........)

11) I'd just like to see the check ARod gets back from the IRS after he files his income tax return; what kind of a refund you think he gets?

10) Mets have hit a triple in ten consecutive games, with nine guys hitting them (Reyes is only guy to hit two triples in this stretch).

9) Rashard Lewis of the Orlando Magic is part-owner of Join in the Dance, who is running in the Kentucky Derby Saturday.

8) Cubs are retiring Ferguson Jenkins' number 31 Sunday, which is very long overdue; he was an outstanding pitcher in the 70's, with 284 career wins and 267 complete games. Tremendous pitcher.

7) There are ten active major leaguers who have walked 5+ times in a game; Mark Teixeira is the only active player to do it twice- the last major leaguer to do it twice, before Teixeira? Ty Cobb.

6) Was listening to someone, can't remember who, talking about how baserunners go from first-to-third better now not because they are lot faster, but because outfielders don't throw as well as they used to-- teams don't take as much infield/outfield practice, so defense suffers.

5) Star of the Day was Yovani Gallardo of Milwaukee, who homered in 1-0 win over Pittsburgh, and allowed only two hits in eight IP. He is the first pitcher to homer in a 1-0 game since Odalis Perez (2002).

4) Congrats to Chicago Blackhawks for winning their first playoff series since 1996. With Devils/Rangers both losing, NHL could use either Chicago or Boston to make a deep run in the playoffs, so their TV ratings don't go deeper in the ashcan in this country.

3) Jets released Brett Favre, meaning that if he wanted to unretire and go play for the Vikings, he could sign tomorrow; that could become a storyline in late June or early July, after minicamps are over.

2) There is a pitcher at San Diego State named Strasberg who has hit 102 on the radar gun; he will be drafted first by Washington and his scumweasel agent Boras will ask for around $50M from Nationals, who have to pay it to have credibility with their fans, since they have the new stadium and all. Just hope the kid does well; there are scouts who swear he is major league-ready, right now. His college coach is the great Hall of Fame outfielder Tony Gwynn.

1) Speaking of the draft, it will be shown live on the MLB Network at 6pm Tuesday June 9, so that should be interesting-- the first three rounds are scheduled to be televised.

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[pm530]

Len’s Top Five


Thursday, April 30

Len's Top 5

Happy Thursday everyone, here's my Top 5 for April 30, 2009 from len berman sports.

1. Quick Hits

Is anyone actually surprised? A new book about A-Rod claims he probably used performance enhancing drugs with the Yankees, not just Texas.
There will be a full field of 20 horses for Saturday's Kentucky Derby. The early favorite is "I Want Revenge" at 3-1. He'll break from the 13th post.
Despite the team's flop, Lawrence Frank will return to coach the New Jersey Nets.
70s and 80s wrestling star "Playboy" Buddy Rose dead at the age of 56.

2. #1 Fan

The Wall Street Journal asks the question "Is Obama the 'Sports' President?" In his first 100 days he's done everything from trash A-Rod to correctly pick the NCAA basketball champion (North Carolina).
Now here's what he has to do in the next hundred days. Lower baseball ticket prices, identify a future American tennis champion, and bring pro basketball back to New York.

3. LT the Movie

The New York Post is reporting that Hollywood might make a movie of Lawrence Taylor's life. It certainly has it all. Violence, drugs, sex, and rock and roll. OK, the rock and roll part is a bit of stretch, but when I co-hosted a TV show with LT back in the day, at the end of one episode the two of us sang "My Girl" with Bruce Hornsby. For some strange reason we didn't win an Emmy.

4. Is it Real or Memorex?

New York's ambitious Sports Museum of America has gone bust. But they still have tons of memorabilia. And the bankruptcy trustee is charging fees for people to get their stuff back. A Jesse Owens gold medal, for example, is being held hostage. And so is Brandi Chastain's sports bra that became world famous after she scored the winning goal for the U.S. in World Cup soccer 10 years ago. She's not too concerned that the bra is in captivity, saying she has another one. Which of course makes you wonder what sports stuff is real to begin with?

5. Fore!

Here's one for all you people who scoff at golfers who waste an entire day puttering around in silly clothes. In upstate New York police received a 911 call, "men pinned under golf cart." Strong winds on the course flipped the cart trapping the duffers. In an absolute miracle they were rescued with minor injuries. That captain who was rescued from the pirates has nothing on these intrepid outdoorsmen.

Today's Birthday: The spanking new basketball coach at FIU, Isiah Thomas. 48
Bonus Birthday: Actress Kirsten Dunst. 27.

Today in Sports: Willie Mays hits 4 home runs in a game in Milwaukee. 1961.
Bonus Event: As Mets pitcher David Cone argues a call at first base, two Atlanta Braves score. 1990.

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[pm530]

NBA
Dunkel Index


Portland at Houston
The Blazers are coming off a victory in Game Four (88-77) and look to build on their 6-2 ATS record in their last 8 games following a win of more than 10 points, while the Rockets are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite. Portland is the underdog pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has Houston favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Portland (+5). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

THURSDAY, APRIL 30

Game 555-556: Boston at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 119.670; Chicago 121.152
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 191 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+3); Under

Game 557-558: Orlando at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 117.375; Philadelphia 120.491
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 3; 182 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 5 1/2; 184
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+5 1/2); Under

Game 559-560: Portland at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 125.451; Houston 128.974
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 3 1/2; 171
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 5; 179
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+5); Under

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[pm530]

NBA
Long Sheet


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Thursday, April 30
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BOSTON (65 - 22) at CHICAGO (43 - 44) - 4/30/2009, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
CHICAGO is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 111-82 ATS (+20.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 56-39 ATS (+13.1 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 48-33 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 57-38 ATS (+15.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 14-25 ATS (-13.5 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 37-52 ATS (-20.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 8-6 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 9-6 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ORLANDO (62 - 25) at PHILADELPHIA (43 - 44) - 4/30/2009, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 41-26 ATS (+12.4 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
ORLANDO is 51-36 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games this season.
ORLANDO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as an underdog this season.
ORLANDO is 27-16 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games this season.
ORLANDO is 53-35 ATS (+14.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-23 ATS (-12.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 8-7 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 11-4 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (56 - 31) at HOUSTON (56 - 31) - 4/30/2009, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 47-30 ATS (+14.0 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 48-38 ATS (+6.2 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 25-16 ATS (+7.4 Units) second half of the season this season.
PORTLAND is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 9-7 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 11-5 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

NBA
Short Sheet


Thursday, April 30th

Eastern Conference Playoffs - Round One
Game Six
Boston Leads, 3-2
Boston at Chicago, 7:05 ET

Boston:
23-12 ATS as road underdog
10-2 Over in April

Chicago:
31-47 ATS off ATS win
6-0 Over as a home favorite of 3 pts or less
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Eastern Conference Playoffs - Round One
Game Six
Orlando Leads, 3-2
Orlando at Philadelphia, 7:35 ET

Orlando:
4-10 ATS in April
11-3 Under in April

Philadelphia:
9-1 ATS off road loss where they scored 80 pts or less
28-17 ATS off DD road loss
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Western Conference Playoffs - Round One
Game Six
Houston Leads, 3-2
Portland at Houston, 9:35 ET

Portland:
15-5 ATS off DD home win
7-0 Over after allowing 80 points or less

Houston:
6-15 ATS if road underdog last game
43-17 Over after scoring 90 points or less 3 straight games

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[pm530]

NBA
Write-up


Thursday, April 30

First round, NBA playoffs

Three of five Boston-Chicago games went to overtime, with both wins by Bulls in OT; road team led at halftime in all four series games, with only one of the five decided by more than three points. Perkins blocked seven shots in Game 5. Boston tried 21-23 treys in splitting two games at United Center- they've taken 16 treys in all three games in Boston. .

Howard is suspended for Game 6, result of correct interpretation of the dumbest rule in the NBA; hard to imagine Magic will win without him, seeing how they held 76ers to 87-81-78 points in their series wins, while Sixers scored 100-96 points in their wins. Philly covered first four games in series, but were -12 on boards, just 4-18 from arc in Game 5 loss.

Portland has 17 blocked shots in its last two games, Houston only two; Blazers averaged 25 fouls shots a game at home, but took just 10-17 in two games here, losing both by total of four points. Underdog is 4-1 vs spread in series, with last three staying under total, after first two went over. Portland is 17-38 from arc in series in Houston, 12-36 in the three games at home. Three of last four games were decided by 4 or less pts.

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[pm530]

NBA


Thursday, April 30

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Trend Sheet
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7:00 PM
ORLANDO vs. PHILADELPHIA
Orlando is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Orlando is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing Orlando
Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home

8:00 PM
BOSTON vs. CHICAGO
Boston is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games
Boston is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Chicago is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Boston
Chicago is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston

9:30 PM
PORTLAND vs. HOUSTON
Portland is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing Houston
Portland is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

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[pm530]

NBA


Thursday, April 30

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Tips and Trends
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Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets [TNT | 9:35 PM ET]

Trail Blazers: The Blazers have mostly defended Yao by putting either Joel Przybilla or Greg Oden in front of him and then double-teaming whenever he touches the ball. The Blazers have lost 12 of their last 13 games at the Toyota Center and 10 of their last 11 road playoff games overall. "Hopefully we put the pressure back on them," said Brandon Roy, averaging 27.6 points in the series. "We have another chance to play with our backs against the wall. We're going to go out there and play loose and hopefully we can play like we did (on Tuesday)."

The Trail Blazers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
The Trail Blazers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 85

Rockets (-5, O/U 179.5): With Yao constantly surrounded, Luis Scola is the Rockets' leading scorer in the series, averaging 17.6 points per game. Portland's defense on Yao has opened up mid-range jumpers for Scola, who is shooting 58.5 percent from the field. After topping 100 points in the first two games, Houston has averaged only 84 points in the last three. "I'm not concerned. We'll play better at home," Rockets' forward Shane Battier said after Game 5. "We're excited. It's not a pressure situation." The Rockets have won eight straight home games, but are still trying to advance out of the first round for the first time since 1997.

The Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - G Tracy McGrady (knee) is OUT for the season

PROJECTED SCORE: 94 (Side Play of the Day)

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[pm530]

NBA


Thursday, April 30

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Pick ‘n’ Roll: NBA best bets
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Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers (-5, 184)

Dwight Howard will have plenty of elbow room wherever he watches Game 6.

Howard could stretch out in his hotel room and click on the TV. He could watch Orlando play Philadelphia from a restaurant or catch updates on a hand-held device.

What Howard won't do Thursday night is play. Orlando's "Superman" has been grounded.

Howard was suspended one game by the NBA on Wednesday for his elbow on Sixers center Samuel Dalembert in Orlando's Game 5 victory.

The two tangled going for a rebound in the first quarter and Howard whacked Dalembert on the left side of the face. Howard drew a technical foul for the hit.

Howard said in a statement on Wednesday he was disappointed, but respected, the league's decision.

"I have complete faith in my teammates that they will come out and get the job done tomorrow night," he said.

The Magic lead the Sixers 3-2 in the best-of-seven series.Howard had posted on his blog before the NBA handed down the decision that he wasn't trying to hurt Dalembert.

"I think everybody knows how I play basketball," Howard wrote. "I'm just out there trying to win. ... I think when the league looks at the total picture of what's happened throughout this series that they will understand it's a physical game down in the paint."

Ask Magic guard Courtney Lee about the impact of Howard's physical play. Lee suffered a fractured sinus after taking an inadvertent elbow to the head from Howard in Game 5 on Tuesday night. Lee's out for Game 6.

No Howard. No Lee. Can the teams just move ahead to Game 7 already?

Coach Tony DiLeo uncharacteristically groused after the 91-78 loss that Howard lives in the 3-second lane on offense and defense. Magic coach Stan Van Gundy defended Howard and objected to DiLeo lobbying for calls in a news conference.

DiLeo refused to address the matter on Wednesday when the Sixers practiced before they knew of Howard's punishment.Not Dalembert. The Sixers center complained of a headache.

"What he did was unsportsmanship," he said. "Once in a while, you're playing hard and things might happen. I got two. There was a first elbow and the second elbow coming after that. One of them hit me."

The Sixers realize Howard and Lee's absence gives them a fantastic opportunity to force a Game 7 and take their chances in Orlando, where they won Game 1.

"Regardless who's out there, we've got to go out there and win," Sixers guard Andre Iguodala said.

Pick: 76ers



Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets (-5, 179.5)

The strategy seems simple enough: Pass the ball to Yao Ming.

Once again, the Portland Trail Blazers shut off that option for the Houston Rockets and stayed alive in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs.

Yao scored 15 points - but only two in the fourth quarter - in the Blazers' 88-77 win on Tuesday night to force Game 6 on Thursday night in Houston. The 7-foot-6 Yao, a seven-time All-Star and Houston's leading scorer at 19.7 points per game during the regular season, took only four shots in the last quarter and the Rockets were outscored 24-15.

The Blazers have mostly defended Yao by putting either Joel Przybilla or Greg Oden in front of him and then double-teaming whenever he touches the ball. Yao found a way to score 24 points in Game 1 and 21 in Game 4, leaving the game plan for Game 6 fairly obvious - at least to him.

"Get the ball inside. Get the ball inside. Get the ball inside," he said. "That's it."

With Yao constantly surrounded, Luis Scola is the Rockets' leading scorer in the series, averaging 17.6 points per game. Portland's defense on Yao has opened up mid-range jumpers for Houston's power forward and Scola is shooting 58.5 percent from the field.

Scola scored 21 in Game 5, but had only one basket in the fourth quarter. The Rockets went 7-for-20 from the field in the final quarter and the Blazers maintained a comfortable lead in the closing minutes by going 10-for-12 from the free-throw line.

The Rockets led 68-64 with under nine minutes to go before Portland launched a 15-0 run.

LaMarcus Aldridge scored 25 points for Portland in Game 5, complementing Brandon Roy's 25. Aldridge scored 27 in the Blazers' other win in the series and has averaged only 13 points in his team's three losses.

Aldridge said after the Blazers' 107-103 win in Game 2 that he stopped overanalyzing how the Rockets were trying to guard him and "just played basketball." He did the same thing in Game 5 with similar results.

The Blazers have lost 12 of their last 13 games at the Toyota Center and 10 of their last 11 road playoff games overall. They're trying to become just the ninth team in NBA history - out of 185 - to rally from a 3-1 deficit and win a seven-game playoff series.

The Rockets, meanwhile, have won eight straight home games, but are still trying to advance out of the first round for the first time since 1997. They've lost Game 6s in each of the last two seasons, both to Utah.

Pick: Under

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[pm530]

MLB
Dunkel Index


St. Louis at Washington
The Nats look to take advantage of a St. Louis team that is 0-8 in its last 8 games as a road favorite between -110 and -150. Washington is the underdog pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+125). Here are all of today's games

THURSDAY, APRIL 30

Game 901-902: St. Louis at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Boggs) 14.677; Washington (Cabrera) 16.014
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 10
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+125); Over

Game 903-904: Florida at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Volstad) 15.171; Cubs (Marshall) 13.660
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-130); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+120); N/A

Game 905-906: Arizona at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Scherzer) 15.386; Milwaukee (Suppan) 15.412
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-115); Over

Game 907-908: San Diego at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Geer) 14.741; LA Dodgers (McDonald) 13.277
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+145); Under

Game 909-910: Oakland at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 16.529; Texas (Padilla) 15.361
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 12
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 11
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+110); Over

Game 911-912: Toronto at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Burres) 16.338; Kansas City (Davies) 14.810
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+130); Under

Game 913-914: Boston at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 15.231; Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.401
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-110); Over

Game 915-916: LA Angels at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Ortega) 15.298; NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.275
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 11
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-230); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-230); Over

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[pm530]

MLB
Long Sheet


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Thursday, April 30
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ST LOUIS (14 - 7) at WASHINGTON (4 - 15) - 7:05 PM
MITCHELL BOGGS (R) vs. DANIEL CABRERA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 100-83 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 100-83 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 67-51 (+16.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 63-114 (-31.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 43-82 (-26.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 25-62 (-28.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 63-117 (-34.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MITCHELL BOGGS vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
No recent starts.

DANIEL CABRERA vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
No recent starts.

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FLORIDA (12 - 8) at CHICAGO CUBS (10 - 9) - 8:05 PM
CHRIS VOLSTAD (R) vs. SEAN MARSHALL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 23-10 (+11.7 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 25-14 (+13.3 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 95-83 (+24.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 43-38 (+17.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 96-85 (+23.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 46-45 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
VOLSTAD is 7-1 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
VOLSTAD is 7-1 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHICAGO CUBS are 910-934 (-165.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 380-349 (-75.4 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 967-1018 (-187.4 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 517-474 (-112.8 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

CHRIS VOLSTAD vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
VOLSTAD is 0-0 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.417.
His team's record is 1-1 (+1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

SEAN MARSHALL vs. FLORIDA since 1997
MARSHALL is 1-3 when starting against FLORIDA with an ERA of 4.57 and a WHIP of 1.385.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.2 units)

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ARIZONA (8 - 12) at MILWAUKEE (10 - 10) - 8:05 PM
MAX SCHERZER (R) vs. JEFF SUPPAN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 91-92 (-20.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 35-49 (-17.9 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 91-89 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 61-66 (-19.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
SCHERZER is 1-9 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SCHERZER is 1-9 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SUPPAN is 37-16 (+18.8 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MAX SCHERZER vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
No recent starts.

JEFF SUPPAN vs. ARIZONA since 1997
SUPPAN is 3-3 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 4.43 and a WHIP of 1.455.
His team's record is 4-4 (-2.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.4 units)

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SAN DIEGO (11 - 9) at LA DODGERS (14 - 7) - 10:10 PM
JOSH GEER (R) vs. JAMES MCDONALD (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 74-107 (-32.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 4-18 (-12.6 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 74-107 (-32.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 52-78 (-23.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 25-50 (-22.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 2-2 (+0.2 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.0 Units)

JOSH GEER vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
No recent starts.

JAMES MCDONALD vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
No recent starts.

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OAKLAND (7 - 11) at TEXAS (10 - 10) - 2:05 PM
DALLAS BRADEN (L) vs. SCOTT FELDMAN (R) *
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 6-22 (-15.1 Units) against the money line in road games in day games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 154-162 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against OAKLAND this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

DALLAS BRADEN vs. TEXAS since 1997
BRADEN is 0-2 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 6.60 and a WHIP of 1.933.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

SCOTT FELDMAN vs. OAKLAND since 1997
FELDMAN is 1-2 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 4.70 and a WHIP of 1.217.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-1. (+1.8 units)

= = = *NOTE: This is now the probable pitching lineup for the Oakland/Texas game ===

OAKLAND (7 - 11) at TEXAS (10 - 10) - 2:05 PM
DALLAS BRADEN (L) vs. VICENTE PADILLA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 6-22 (-15.1 Units) against the money line in road games in day games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 154-162 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
PADILLA is 22-11 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
PADILLA is 9-2 (+9.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
PADILLA is 12-3 (+11.3 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against OAKLAND this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

DALLAS BRADEN vs. TEXAS since 1997
BRADEN is 0-2 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 6.60 and a WHIP of 1.933.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

VICENTE PADILLA vs. OAKLAND since 1997
PADILLA is 5-1 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 4.17 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 7-3 (+4.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-3. (+3.8 units)

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TORONTO (15 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (10 - 10) - 2:10 PM
BRIAN BURRES (L) vs. KYLE DAVIES (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BURRES is 0-10 (-10.1 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 40-29 (+23.3 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 38-22 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 76-57 (+14.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 54-96 (-30.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 28-55 (-27.4 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 1-1 (+0.1 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.3 Units)

BRIAN BURRES vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
BURRES is 0-1 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 4.09 and a WHIP of 1.727.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

KYLE DAVIES vs. TORONTO since 1997
No recent starts.

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BOSTON (13 - 7) at TAMPA BAY (8 - 13) - 7:08 PM
JOSH BECKETT (R) vs. MATT GARZA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 4-13 (-10.3 Units) against the money line in games played in a dome over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 8-18 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in games played on artificial turf over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 113-86 (+21.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 64-32 (+24.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 51-37 (+17.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 65-34 (+22.7 Units) against the money line in games played in a dome over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 69-39 (+21.9 Units) against the money line in games played on artificial turf over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 84-50 (+30.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 41-17 (+20.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 11-2 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 18-5 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 48-20 (+23.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-1 (+1.7 Units) against BOSTON this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

JOSH BECKETT vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
BECKETT is 7-3 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.69 and a WHIP of 1.108.
His team's record is 7-6 (-2.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-8. (-3.4 units)

MATT GARZA vs. BOSTON since 1997
GARZA is 6-1 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 2.90 and a WHIP of 1.215.
His team's record is 8-1 (+8.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-5. (-2.3 units)

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LA ANGELS (8 - 11) at NY YANKEES (10 - 10) - 7:05 PM
ANTHONY ORTEGA (R) vs. A.J. BURNETT (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA ANGELS are 109-76 (+17.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 53-37 (+16.8 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 103-66 (+21.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 40-27 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 150-104 (+25.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 207-140 (-63.1 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 10 to 10.5 since 1997.
NY YANKEES are 33-39 (-21.5 Units) against the money line in April games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

ANTHONY ORTEGA vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
No recent starts.

A.J. BURNETT vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
BURNETT is 1-2 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.250.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-1. (+1.8 units)

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[pm530]

MLB
Short Sheet


Thursday, April 30

National League

ST LOUIS at WASHINGTON, 7:05 PM ET
BOGGS: STL 10-3 when the money line is +125 to -125
CABRERA: WAS 27-59 after 1 or more consecutive unders

FLORIDA at CHICAGO CUBS, 8:05 PM ET
VOLSTAD: FLA 10-3 after 3 consecutive division games
MARSHALL: 3-9 TSR after 3 consecutive games

ARIZONA at MILWAUKEE, 8:05 PM ET
SCHERZER: ARI 17-33 AWAY when the money line is +125 to -125
SUPPAN: 37-16 TSR at home with a money line of -100 to -125

SAN DIEGO at LA DODGERS, 10:10 PM ET
GEER: SD 4-19 as a road underdog of +125 to +150
MCDONALD: LAD 23-7 at home after 3 consecutive division games


American League

OAKLAND at TEXAS, 2:05 PM ET
BRADEN: OAK 6-22 AWAY in day games
PADILLA: 12-3 TSR after a team win

TORONTO at KANSAS CITY, 2:10 PM ET
BURRES: TOR 7-0 after a team loss
DAVIES: KC 28-55 at home when the total is 9 to 9.5

BOSTON at TAMPA BAY, 7:08 PM ET MLB
BECKETT: BOS 11-2 AWAY when playing on Thursday
GARZA: TB 2-11 when the money line is +125 to -125

LA ANGELS at NY YANKEES, 7:05 PM ET
ORTEGA: LAA 35-18 AWAY when the total is 8.5 to 10
BURNETT: NYY 17-25 when the total is 10 or higher

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[pm530]

MLB
Write-up


Thursday, April 30

Hot Pitchers
-- Boggs beat Cubs 8-2 in his first '09 start (one run/5.2 IP).
-- Volstad is 2-0, 3.47 in four starts this season.
-- Geer allowed two runs in seven IP in his only '09 start vs Phillies; he gave up five runs in four IP in long relief vs Pirates Saturday.

-- Braden is 2-1, 1.89 in his last three starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Washington is 0-4 in Cabrera starts (0-2, 7.86).
-- Scherzer is 0-2, 4.91 in three starts this season. Marshall is 0-2, 4.91 in his two starts. Suppan is 1-2, 7.78 in his four starts.
-- McDonald has a 7.71 RA in three starts this year.

-- Padilla is 1-1, 8.27 in his four starts this season.
-- Davies is 1-1, 6.88 in his last three starts. Burres lost his first start of 2009 in Chicago, 10-2 to White Sox (six runs in 4.1 IP).
-- Beckett is 1-1, 8.47 in his last three starts. Rays lost last three Garza starts (0-2, 6.38).
-- Burnett is 0-0, 8.74 in his last two starts. Ortega allowed five runs in five IP in his first start, a 9-8 loss.

Hot Teams
-- Cardinals won seven of their last nine games.
-- Brewers won seven of their last eight games.
-- Dodgers are 6-0 at home this season.

-- Rangers won four of their last five games.
-- Red Sox won twelve of their last thirteen games.
-- Toronto is 9-5 in its last fourteen games.
-- Bronx won last two games, scoring 19 runs. Angels won three games in a row, allowing total of seven runs.

Cold Teams
-- Nationals lost five of their last seven games.
-- Marlins lost seven of their last nine games, but won last two. Cubs lost six of their last eight games.
-- Arizona is 7-10 in its last 17 games.
-- Padres lost seven of their last nine games.

-- Oakland lost its last five road games, put two starters on the DL with strained calf muscles Wednesday. They got hurt during a rainout?
-- Royals are 1-5 in game following their last six wins.
-- Rays lost eleven of their last fifteen games.

Totals
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Cardinals' last eight road games.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in Florida's last seven games.
-- Six of last eight games at Miller Park went over the total.
-- Over is 12-2-1 in last fifteen Dodger games.

-- Eight of ten Texas home games went over the total.
-- Over is 10-3 in Toronto's road games.
-- 12 of last 15 Boston games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Angel games went over the total.

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