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Went 3-0 in Christmas Eve and Christmas plays so I am coming into this weekend with a pretty good record for the week. I realize this is a time of year that we are all thinking mainly about football as we are in the middle of bowl season and the NFL regular season is drawing to a close, but I absolutely love the Friday and Saturday NHL cards. I check the NHL scheds a week in advance and I knew Sunday that my GOY would come from either the Friday or Saturday card. And honestly, it took me a while to settle on which game on Friday it would be. Thats how strong this card is for me.
The NHL has seen scoring increase in the first two months of the 2008-2009 season and only most recently, within the last couple weeks, have we seen totals routinely at 6. If this game was played early this season the total would have been 5 1/2. But the fact that it is 6 really does not discourage me as the half goal increase can not cost me a loss. It can only take away a win. And in this case, I am thinking it will not be close enough to matter.
NHL
55/56 Toronto/NY Islanders Over 6 -120 10 Units GOY
This game features two teams that give up a ton of goals. The Leafs have either scored or given up 6 goals per game for 4 straight games all of which were overs, obviously, and coming off three consecutive overs they are a 7-1 propostion this year to produce another. The Isles have given up 4 or more goals in 8 of their last 10 games with the two exceptions being 3 to Columbus, who cant score and 1 to Nashville, who really cant score. Toronto is unlike either of those teams offensively and should add another game to the 4 goals against streak. The Islanders have been struggling a bit offensively but even with that are one of the top "over" teams in the league statistically producing 8 more overs than unders. Toronto is another, also 8 more overs than unders. The Toronto "D" should be just what the doctor ordered for this Islanders team coming off the Christmas break as they give up 3.6 goals per game. Both teams are in the top half of the league in power play goals and percentage and thats a great stat for us considering both teams give up a ton of power play opportunites and both are in the bottom half the league killing penalties, bottom 10 in ppga actually. Thats a good combination for over backers. Toronto 12-6 towards the over on the road. Isles 11-3 towards the over at home. Both teams struggle mightily defensively lately and that is a key for me in this spot. Isles average just over 29 sog per game while giving up a over 32 sog per game, a staggering number. Conversely, the leafs average over 32.5 sog per game and give up 28. This puts a lot of pressure on the goaltending which is not top notch in this game. Love this game to go over the posted total, as its my largest selection to date.
51/52 Buffalo/Washington Over 6 -115 5 Units
57/58 Carolina/Atlanta Over 6 -105
63/64 Philadelphia/Chicago Over 6 -115 5 Units
This game was also in the running to be the 10 unit play but the goaltending here is real, real strong. So why the over? Because the offense is even stronger. Both teams have top 4 pp units with Philly being #1 in the NHL. Both teams are 75% propositions toward the over coming off rest and both teams are solid propositions toward the over in non conference games. Biron vs. Khabibulin is the probable starting goalie matchup though and I was burned once by Nicolai already in a big game I posted here against the Sharks which ended 3-2 and Khabibulin singelhandedly kept the Hawks in the game. And I mean singlehandedly. And I wont play another 10 unit game with him involved. But I will for 5 because I really like it.
Now I hate unders. Have said that up here numerous times. I just hate rooting against goals and I hate getting burned with ridiculous crap that seems to happen the few times I do take them. But if I were to take an under then I would start with game 59/60 with a 3 unit bet and add 61/62 as my normal 2 unit wager. I wont count these as part of my record, but they look great to me.
Back later with some NBA and possibly a bowl pick.
Good luck everyone.
The NHL has seen scoring increase in the first two months of the 2008-2009 season and only most recently, within the last couple weeks, have we seen totals routinely at 6. If this game was played early this season the total would have been 5 1/2. But the fact that it is 6 really does not discourage me as the half goal increase can not cost me a loss. It can only take away a win. And in this case, I am thinking it will not be close enough to matter.
NHL
55/56 Toronto/NY Islanders Over 6 -120 10 Units GOY
This game features two teams that give up a ton of goals. The Leafs have either scored or given up 6 goals per game for 4 straight games all of which were overs, obviously, and coming off three consecutive overs they are a 7-1 propostion this year to produce another. The Isles have given up 4 or more goals in 8 of their last 10 games with the two exceptions being 3 to Columbus, who cant score and 1 to Nashville, who really cant score. Toronto is unlike either of those teams offensively and should add another game to the 4 goals against streak. The Islanders have been struggling a bit offensively but even with that are one of the top "over" teams in the league statistically producing 8 more overs than unders. Toronto is another, also 8 more overs than unders. The Toronto "D" should be just what the doctor ordered for this Islanders team coming off the Christmas break as they give up 3.6 goals per game. Both teams are in the top half of the league in power play goals and percentage and thats a great stat for us considering both teams give up a ton of power play opportunites and both are in the bottom half the league killing penalties, bottom 10 in ppga actually. Thats a good combination for over backers. Toronto 12-6 towards the over on the road. Isles 11-3 towards the over at home. Both teams struggle mightily defensively lately and that is a key for me in this spot. Isles average just over 29 sog per game while giving up a over 32 sog per game, a staggering number. Conversely, the leafs average over 32.5 sog per game and give up 28. This puts a lot of pressure on the goaltending which is not top notch in this game. Love this game to go over the posted total, as its my largest selection to date.
51/52 Buffalo/Washington Over 6 -115 5 Units
57/58 Carolina/Atlanta Over 6 -105
63/64 Philadelphia/Chicago Over 6 -115 5 Units
This game was also in the running to be the 10 unit play but the goaltending here is real, real strong. So why the over? Because the offense is even stronger. Both teams have top 4 pp units with Philly being #1 in the NHL. Both teams are 75% propositions toward the over coming off rest and both teams are solid propositions toward the over in non conference games. Biron vs. Khabibulin is the probable starting goalie matchup though and I was burned once by Nicolai already in a big game I posted here against the Sharks which ended 3-2 and Khabibulin singelhandedly kept the Hawks in the game. And I mean singlehandedly. And I wont play another 10 unit game with him involved. But I will for 5 because I really like it.
Now I hate unders. Have said that up here numerous times. I just hate rooting against goals and I hate getting burned with ridiculous crap that seems to happen the few times I do take them. But if I were to take an under then I would start with game 59/60 with a 3 unit bet and add 61/62 as my normal 2 unit wager. I wont count these as part of my record, but they look great to me.
Back later with some NBA and possibly a bowl pick.
Good luck everyone.
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