Is it just me Or did anyone else get killed today?????

[wayne1218]

Gonna take more than a few bad beats and a losing NFL Sunday after several profitbale ones to run me off here for that length of time...

Would a ban work/help?

[GOLDENGREEK]

I've had a few really good weekends in a row now. A couple of weeks i faded the public plays and did well with them and this weekend i wasn't feeling it and didn't. You can look at all the numbers in the world and sometimes it just doesn't matter. I swear sometimes it is just a feeling you get. Do i fade or follow, that is usually the question. Some weeks after looking at the games i feel the public is all wrong and other weeks i feel they are dead on.

I noticed your capping style had changed the last 2-3 weeks

You have been doing VERY WELL !!

[wayne1218]

You and others obviously think Im # 8

But thats wrong


I would say I am # 3, 4, 5 and 8

I too Kapt spend hours upon hours everyday studying, looking at trend , hit and cold teams etc.

I'll give you examples of plays I made this past week:

I was on Buffalo in college on Tue

I was on Ball St and Akron on Wed

I was on Alabama on Saturday

The Jets on Sunday

Im sure there are more that I cant remember

Those were all public "square " plays that I was on

I dont close my eyes and go against the $$$ - you can be a sharp and a handicapper at the same time

I :

# 1 ) Read the lines
# 2 ) cap the games
# 3 ) try to pick my spots to fade the $$$ ( not the favs )

I can guess your plays at a pretty good rate before you post them. I would definately go with 8 if i had to choose 1. You do seem to follow that path more often than not.

[wayne1218]

I noticed your capping style had changed the last 2-3 weeks

You have been doing VERY WELL !!

Alot of times you are right on the money playing those numbers in the NFL and i have noticed that. It is hard to bet some of them at times but it does work. I do see weeks like yesterday where i really felt like the public knew what they were doing though. I simply can't look at those numbers for College. I'm not nearly the believer in that yet. I would much rather look at each game on a game by game basis. I feel like there are more "Mistakes" in lines in College. Maybe because there is a ton more games? I don't know.

[GOLDENGREEK]

I can guess your plays at a pretty good rate before you post them. I would definately go with 8 if i had to choose 1. You do seem to follow that path more often than not.

how would you explain the wagers I listed then ?

they were all public plays -- im sure you didnt guess them ?

[wayne1218]

how would you explain the wagers I listed then ?

they were all public plays -- im sure you didnt guess them ?

I didn't say all of them but a good amount. Those were all public plays? I didn't think they were?

[Kaptain]

i happen to have a few good friends that are books

3 are locals in chicago ( one is a chilehood friend ive known all my life) one is based out of tenn

i also know someone who talkes daily with the sbortsbook manager of the las vegas hilton ( laugh and mock .. But its true )


everyone of them got hammered yesterday and was crying in their cereal

it dosent matter if 6 favs and 6 dogs covered

the public were on those dogs:

* the champs getting 3 points -

* kc getting 15 points when they took tampa to ot last week in addition to public knowledge that dogs of 10 1/2 or more were 13-0 prior to yesterday

* baltimore at 5-3 and winning their last 3 getting 2 points from a 3-5 team


fav / dog # 's do not matter

where the $$ was is what matters

no big deal - there are 1-2 weeks a year in the nfl where this happens

there are also 1-2 weeks were the opposite happens

unforunately i thought this was that week and it exactly the opposite

well explained GREEK......you make some good points, and there is indeed some credence in waht I said......I had a son who worked for the Laregest Casino Resort Chain in the USA, and he used to tell me where the $ was, and where the % was......I found it had no bearings at all on my method of capping......

to me it only matters when you know for sure that the $ came from a PARLANCE BETTOR (wise guy) who makes his living doing it....those were heavily accurate

That info is hard to find.....also glad to see you say it happens 1-2 times a year, and then 1-2 times a year vice versa.....

Thanks for the response....This weekend is over, let's lock and load for another, in the meantime, I'm goona keep capping em the way I do now....and I know you're not gonna change....

Best to ya in the upcoming ones.....

CHADO : Notice how many times he says this happens.....and has happened.....your statement saying you've never seen this b4----well, I think, according to your own admission, you've been capping NFL only a short time....How would you know of how often this has happened........then you say it'll be alon time b4 it happens again....could be next week.....take it from people here that's been doing this for over 23 years (your age).....think....think.....think......

Oakland was just a bad ass wager.....we all make em....I had San Jose St over the weekend in NCAA -17, as a 10* play, and they got beat 21-0.....just a bad ass pick....accept that....you'll be a better capper for it.....

8 road teams covered the spread, and 4 home teams covered the spread........Some of thos spreads went to the weaker home teams, due to the fact they were home....IMO

Houston
Detroit
Oakland

write it up as a loss, and carry on....

[shoeman530]

Would a ban work/help?

[Chado1]

Jets were not a public play by my numbers...Rams were a public backed dog from what I saw....

[live jive]

Kapt seems to bet alot of favs/overs but he does well and is def a handicapper cuz of it... i used to bet alot of favs but i would get killed cuz i was on the square/sucker bet tryin to find that "easy winner"....now i tend to bet dogs or games cuz of line movement and been doin good....i bet the games where the fav is takin most of the action but line goes down instead of up like it should cuz seems like vegas wants more action on that fav and they end up losin or not coverin over a period of time...i rarely try to compare teams or look at trends but bet line value....lot of bettors look at what happened last week and lose cuz lines are adjusted accordingly and every week teams play diff i try to be on opposite those that seem to good to be true cuz of what happened last couple games....sometimes it tough enough for a team just to win a game let alone beat a spread so i find bettin underdogs works better for me

[wayne1218]

how would you explain the wagers I listed then ?

they were all public plays -- im sure you didnt guess them ?

I'm sure we look at different places but i just looked at 4-5 and you were definately against the public on those? No??

[Chado1]

CHADO : Notice how many times he says this happens.....and has happened.....your statement saying you've never seen this b4----well, I think, according to your own admission, you've been capping NFL only a short time....How would you know of how often this has happened........then you say it'll be alon time b4 it happens again....could be next week.....take it from people here that's been doing this for over 23 years (your age)

Yea my sample of "over the years" is quite limited..

[wayne1218]

Dino, Do you find yourself doing a little worse than normal when you play a ton of games? I was playing 10+ easily in foots on Saturday and Sunday and i started playing just the big plays and less than 10 a day about a month or two ago and it has really been working well.

[live jive]

a loss is a loss but i wouldnt say oakland was a bad wager yea if they got beat 31-6 u could say that, but they lost by 11 and were plus 10.....oak fumbled openin kickoff and carolina went up 7-0 in first min of game...then carolina went up 14-0 on a 70 yd td run....oak cuts lead to 14-6 after couple chances to get more than that and w. 4 min to go and carolina gettin ball back u hope they run clock punt and cover should be lookin very good for oak but carolina runs punt 55 yards to oak 30 and ends up kickin FG.....oak was right there entire game far as coverin or in reach and gave carolina all 3 scores on big plays so it was a loss not really "bad bet"

[GOLDENGREEK]

I'm sure we look at different places but i just looked at 4-5 and you were definately against the public on those? No??

buff ( college )

ball st

akron

bama


no


jets were split i think