Early thoughts on Week 3 NCAA and Week 2 NFL

[myrjimmy3]

college i really like michigan. also like oregon georgia penn st usc texas nad kansas

[Chado1]

Anyone else think the Bucs being -9 over the Falcons is strangely high?

[BigWeiner]

Anyone else think the Bucs being -9 over the Falcons is strangely high?

Of the teams that looked good last Sunday, I'd say the Ravens and Falcons could take a dumb this week. Of the teams that looked horrible, I think the Bengals will rebound. Not sure about the Rams and Redskins, they might just be awful.

[Chado1]

Of the teams that looked good last Sunday, I'd say the Ravens and Falcons could take a dumb this week. Of the teams that looked horrible, I think the Bengals will rebound. Not sure about the Rams and Redskins, they might just be awful.

I agree....

And also based on that I love the Lions +3.5 at home over the Packers this week. Total value in this line based on last weeks performances. Infact I am adding that play ensruing I get the hook on the FG which I can right now..

[BigWeiner]

I agree....

And also based on that I love the Lions +3.5 at home over the Packers this week. Total value in this line based on last weeks performances. Infact I am adding that play ensruing I get the hook on the FG which I can right now..

I agree with the Lions, one bad week and everyone thinks they'll go 0-16. It's the same every year, you get great value in week 2. What about Houston -4, I guess Houston's the worst team ever now, and the Ravens are good again. Think of what these line would've been week 1. The Lions would've been favored over the Packers, and the Ravens would've been favored by 7.

[BigWeiner]

I think a huge play for the "square" player will be N.O. Saints pk against Washington. I might just have to play Washington

[Chado1]

I agree with the Lions, one bad week and everyone thinks they'll go 0-16. It's the same every year, you get great value in week 2. What about Houston -4, I guess Houston's the worst team ever now, and the Ravens are good again. Think of what these line would've been week 1. The Lions would've been favored over the Packers, and the Ravens would've been favored by 7.

I totally agree about week 2 being the best week probably of the whole year for value as oddmakers put WAY too much emphasis on week 1 perfomances in week 2 lines. Some of these line would be MUCH different if it wasnt for last week and these games were played in week 1 as you say. You think the Colts would be -1 over Minny? Hell no but because they lost outright by DD at home as a DD fav we are getting value central. They are NOT half as bad as they looked last week.

[DAREALDEAL]

INDY only -1 @ MINNY?

I have officially seen it all...if the Colts actually start the season 0-2 and lose this game I will be shocked. I am taking the Colts all day in this spot with that line....

THE COLTS ARE THE TEAM TO BET AGAINST ....MANNING IS NOT HEATHY AND NOT DOING HIS ROUTINE AND THE DEFENSE IS HORRIBLE

THE BEARS WOULD HAVE HAVE SCORED 3 PTS PLAYING A HIGH SCHOOL TEAM..THEY SCORED 29 AGAINST THE COLTS ....ON THE ROAD!

[BigWeiner]

THE COLTS ARE THE TEAM TO BET AGAINST ....MANNING IS NOT HEATHY AND NOT DOING HIS ROUTINE AND THE DEFENSE IS HORRIBLE

THE BEARS WOULD HAVE HAVE SCORED 3 PTS PLAYING A HIGH SCHOOL TEAM..THEY SCORED 29 AGAINST THE COLTS ....ON THE ROAD!

I agree with the Manning not healthy part, but their defense isn't horrible. The Bears defense is much improved. Vikings D looked terrible also, but I think it will be a much different story throughout the year. Tough game for me to call.

[Chado1]

Tough game for me to call.

Its NOT a tough game to call IMO. I think your just still mad about the loses from taking them in those teases last week vs the Bears and so am I.. The Bears D is nasty. Minny's D was one of the worst in the league against the pass. Manning should be able to throw for much more yardage than in week 1 and he is used to playing in Domes. Look what the Packers and Rogers didnt against that mediocre Minny D...my only worry is stopping the rush offense of the Vikes but I think it wont matter much as the Colts should be able to outscore them offensively anyway IMO...

[Chado1]

THE COLTS ARE THE TEAM TO BET AGAINST ....MANNING IS NOT HEATHY AND NOT DOING HIS ROUTINE AND THE DEFENSE IS HORRIBLE

THE BEARS WOULD HAVE HAVE SCORED 3 PTS PLAYING A HIGH SCHOOL TEAM..THEY SCORED 29 AGAINST THE COLTS ....ON THE ROAD!

The Bears D is fucking raw diggity bro. Minny's D isnt a comparison IMO...

[frankb03]

I totally agree about week 2 being the best week probably of the whole year for value as oddmakers put WAY too much emphasis on week 1 perfomances in week 2 lines. Some of these line would be MUCH different if it wasnt for last week and these games were played in week 1 as you say.

In theory this sounds accurate. However, historically there's no definitive trend indicating this theory holds any validity. IMO this is another one of those theories that sport bettors over analyze.

Week 1 Favorites that lost by 10 or more are 16-16 ATS in week 2

In week 2 teams off an opening 10 or more point win as a dog are 13-20 ATS. A decent fade but not strong enough for me to bet it blindly.

All teams off an opening week win as a dog 38-40 ATS

[frankb03]

You think the Colts would be -1 over Minny? Hell no but because they lost outright by DD at home as a DD fav we are getting value central. They are NOT half as bad as they looked last week.

I also don't agree with this statement. Vegas will adjust the line by a point or two. Not a glaring line adjustment.

Coming into this season Minny was touted as a SB contender. A team with one of the better defenses.

Indy entered the season without Manning playing a down in preseason. The rust showed. If anything you're giving too much 'value' to Indy due to their success in previous seasons.

The game is at Minny. IMO the line is accurate. At Indy, Colts would be favored by 5.

Indy vs. Chicago on a neutral field Indy -7
Indy vs Minny on a Neutral field Indy -2

If Minny played Chicago on a Neutral field Minny -5.

Is Minny -5 vs. Bears far fetched coming into the season with all the hype Minny received and with all the expectation on how bad Chicago would be?

[10DimeBry]

I like Rice+7 on saturday. I also like Oregon st, san jose st.

NFL i suck i have no opinion what so ever