Thursday Trends and Indexes 07/17

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Thursday July 17

Good Luck on day #199 of 2008!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
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[pm530]

Daily Sports Roundup

Thursday, July 17

Tiger Woods is injured, and Phil Mickelson has never performed very well at the British Open, so that leaves South Africa's Ernie Els as the big Vegas favorite to win the major.

Els went into The Open Championship at just 8/1 odds to grab the trophy, which is something he did at this tournament back in 2002. Els has also had a lot of close calls at the event, with three second-place results (1996, 2000, and 2004), two third-place finishes (2001 and 2006), and a fourth-place finish at last year's tourney at Carnoustie.

Mickelson falls in behind Els on the odds list at 10/1, with Sergio Garcia at 12/1, and both Justin Rose and defending champion Padraig Harrington at 15/1. Lee Westwood, Jim Furyk, Adam Scott, Retief Goosen, and Vijay Singh were all pegged at 20/1 odds to get the win by Vegas, with Geoff Ogilvy and Luke Donald just a little farther back at 25/1.

Other notables and their British Open odds this week include Stuart Appleby (30/1), Stewart Cink (35/1), Justin Leonard (35/1), K.J. Choi (35/1), Stephen Ames (40/1), and Mike Weir (40/1). Miguel Angel Jimenez is a longshot at just 60/1 odds to get the victory.

The start of the 2008 British Open at Royal Birkdale dominates the sports news on Thursday, but Major League Baseball also swings back into action. There are four games on the diamond Thursday, with the Mets at Cincinnati, San Diego at St. Louis, and Pittsburgh at Colorado in the NL, and Detroit at Baltimore in the AL.

The top pitching matchup will be in St. Louis, where the Padres' Jake Peavy (7-5, 2.47 ERA) will take on the Cardinals' Kyle Lohse (11-2, 3.39 ERA). Peavy has allowed more than three earned runs in an outing only twice this year - and it hasn't happened since he returned from the DL on June 12. The righthander is coming off a strong outing against the Braves in which he tossed seven scoreless innings and fanned seven hitters.

Lohse is 8-0 with two no-decisions over his last 10 starts, allowing three or fewer earned runs in nine of those outings. The righthander also tossed seven scoreless innings in his last trip to the mound, striking out three Pirates and giving up six hits in his 11th victory.

Johan Santana, well rested since he wasn't invited to the All-Star Game, will start for the Mets on Thursday, and he'll be looking to help the team run its winning streak to 10 games. The lefthander blanked the Giants on three hits over five innings in his final start of the first half, but he'd gone winless over his six starts prior to that despite solid lines. Santana is scheduled to face the Reds' Johnny Cueto, who lost the Cubs last time out.

There are three WNBA games on the schedule for Thursday, with Minnesota at Houston, Washington at New York, and Los Angeles at Phoenix. The Sparks got another big game from Candace Parker on Monday night as they cruised to a 75-62 win over the Silver Stars. Parker tossed in 24 points and grabbed 10 rebounds on the night.

Finally, there's on Canadian Football League game on tap for Thursday, with the Tiger-Cats out in Calgary to face the Stampeders. Hamilton is just 1-2 straight up and 1-2 against-the-spread so far this season, but the one time they did cover was on the road. Calgary is 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS, and they managed to cover in their only home contest.

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[pm530]

Six-pack for Thursday

-- Now the Packers are charging Minnesota with tampering over the Favre thing; Terrell Owens and Chad Johnson are going to start feeling left out pretty soon.

-- Greta van Susteren? Why? Rachel Ray wasn't available?

-- Looks like the Packer/Favre standoff is going to drag on in to training camp, all of which takes lot of heat off the Giants as they defend their title.

-- Bud Selig came fairly close to David Wright, JD Drew as pitchers in the 16th inning of the All-Star Game. Not sure if that would have been better than a tie game.

-- At some point, doesn't baseball have to realize how stupid giving home field advantage in World Series to winner of an exhibition game is? Little Leagues are run better than this.

-- The hideous ESPYs were filmed last night, to be shown on Sunday at 9, which means no 4:00 games on Extra Innings package because the ESPN game comes on at 6. Not good.

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Long Sheet

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

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Thursday, July 17
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HAMILTON (1 - 2) at CALGARY (2 - 1) - 7/17/2008, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 3-1 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 2-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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Friday, July 18
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WINNIPEG (0 - 3) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (1 - 2) - 7/18/2008, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-1 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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Saturday, July 19
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MONTREAL (2 - 1) at SASKATCHEWAN (3 - 0) - 7/19/2008, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 119-90 ATS (+20.0 Units) in all games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 119-90 ATS (+20.0 Units) in all lined games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 34-16 ATS (+16.4 Units) in July games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 2-1 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-1 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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Sunday, July 20
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EDMONTON (2 - 1) at TORONTO (1 - 2) - 7/20/2008, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in home games in July games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 4-1 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Write up

CFL
Write-up


Week 4 CFL games

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Thursday, July 17
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Hamilton (1-2) @ Calgary (2-1)-- TiCats ran ball for 504 yards in last two games, as they try to keep porous defense off field- the Roughriders averaged over 10 yards/pass attempt in 33-28 win at Hamilton last week. Calgary allowed 18-19 points in their two wins, 34 in a loss in Edmonton. TiCats yielded 33 points in each loss, held Toronto to 13 in its upset win at Rogers Centre.


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Friday, July 18
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Winnipeg (1-2) @ BCLions (1-2)-- Lions picked off four passes, averaged just under 10 yards/pass attempt as they got first win 42-24 in Winnipeg last week, handing Bombers their third loss in row. Bombers allowed 23-38-42 pts so far, with seven INTs, and 964 yards allowed the last two weeks. Lions ran ball for 169 yards last week, after just 65-56 yards in first two games.


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Saturday, July 19
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Montreal (2-1) @ Saskatchewan (3-0)-- Alouettes only ran ball six times for 25 yards last week, after 28-24 rush attempts in first two games- they still haven't picked off pass this year. Durant has sparked Rider offense that scored 34-26-33 points- in last week's win, they had 345 passing yards on 33 attempts. TiCats had 193 rushing yards last week; Als figure to try the same.


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Sunday, July 20
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Edmonton (2-1) @ Toronto (1-2)-- Eskimos scored 81 points in winning last two games; they scored 47 points vs Argos in last week's game, despite -3 turnover ratio. Toronto allowed 474 yds on ground last two weeks, giving up 32-47 points in losses- in first two games, they were outgained by 131-242 yards, gave up 47 points last week in game they had +3 turnover margin in.

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Additional Trends

CFL

Week 4

Trend Sheet

Thursday, July 17

9:00 PM HAMILTON vs. CALGARY
Hamilton is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
Hamilton is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Calgary is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Calgary is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games


Friday, July 18

10:00 PM WINNIPEG vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Winnipeg is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Winnipeg is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
British Columbia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
British Columbia is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games


Saturday, July 19

7:00 PM MONTREAL vs. SASKATCHEWAN
Montreal is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Montreal is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
Saskatchewan is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Montreal
Saskatchewan is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games when playing Montreal


Sunday, July 20

4:00 PM EDMONTON vs. TORONTO
Edmonton is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Edmonton's last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Toronto is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

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[pm530]

WNBA – Long Sheet

WNBA
Long Sheet

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Thursday, July 17
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MINNESOTA (10 - 10) at HOUSTON (9 - 12) - 7/17/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in July games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 40-61 ATS (-27.1 Units) in road games vs. division opponents since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 224-170 ATS (+37.0 Units) in all games since 1997.
HOUSTON is 149-98 ATS (+41.2 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
HOUSTON is 115-80 ATS (+27.0 Units) in home games since 1997.
HOUSTON is 74-49 ATS (+20.1 Units) in July games since 1997.
HOUSTON is 161-112 ATS (+37.8 Units) in May, June, or July games since 1997.
HOUSTON is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) on Thursday since 1997.
HOUSTON is 142-110 ATS (+21.0 Units) vs. division opponents since 1997.
HOUSTON is 140-107 ATS (+22.3 Units) after a division game since 1997.
HOUSTON is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 7-3 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 7-3 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (8 - 12) at NEW YORK (11 - 9) - 7/17/2008, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 155-199 ATS (-63.9 Units) in all games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 93-125 ATS (-44.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 75-104 ATS (-39.4 Units) in road games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 23-43 ATS (-24.3 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 36-60 ATS (-30.0 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 6-3 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 6-3 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LOS ANGELES (13 - 8) at PHOENIX (9 - 12) - 7/17/2008, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games this season.
PHOENIX is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in a home game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 this season.
PHOENIX is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in July games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in May, June, or July games this season.
PHOENIX is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
PHOENIX is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) after a division game this season.
PHOENIX is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) after allowing 75 points or more this season.
PHOENIX is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) after scoring 75 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 6-4 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 6-4 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

WNBA – Trends Sheet

WNBA


Thursday, July 17

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Trend Sheet
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12:00 PM MINNESOTA vs. HOUSTON
Minnesota is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Houston
Minnesota is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Houston
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games


7:30 PM WASHINGTON vs. NEW YORK
Washington is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
New York is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
New York is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games


10:00 PM LOS ANGELES vs. PHOENIX
Los Angeles is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Phoenix is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing at home against Los Angeles

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Long Sheet

MLB
Long Sheet


Thursday, July 17

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NY METS (51 - 44) at CINCINNATI (46 - 50) - 7:10 PM
JOHAN SANTANA (L) vs. JOHNNY CUETO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SANTANA is 27-25 (-13.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SANTANA is 17-18 (-13.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NY METS are 11-2 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in July games this season.
SANTANA is 74-25 (+37.1 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)
SANTANA is 69-20 (+33.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
NY METS is 2-1 (+0.7 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.1 Units)

JOHAN SANTANA vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
SANTANA is 1-0 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 5.56 and a WHIP of 1.765.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

JOHNNY CUETO vs. NY METS since 1997
CUETO is 0-1 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 11.56 and a WHIP of 2.355.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

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SAN DIEGO (37 - 58) at ST LOUIS (53 - 43) - 8:15 PM
JAKE PEAVY (R) vs. KYLE LOHSE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 11-27 (-17.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN DIEGO is 37-57 (-22.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 14-23 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 37-57 (-22.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN DIEGO is 25-41 (-18.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 25-37 (-14.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 53-43 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 35-26 (+10.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 53-43 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LOHSE is 30-22 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LOHSE is 30-22 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LOHSE is 64-46 (+19.5 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-1 (+1.4 Units) against SAN DIEGO this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.1 Units)

JAKE PEAVY vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
PEAVY is 3-4 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.56 and a WHIP of 1.444.
His team's record is 5-4 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-3. (+0.4 units)

KYLE LOHSE vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
LOHSE is 0-2 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 7.05 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 0-3 (-3.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

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PITTSBURGH (44 - 50) at COLORADO (39 - 57) - 9:05 PM
PAUL MAHOLM (L) vs. UBALDO JIMENEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 17-37 (-17.5 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 70-135 (-35.1 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 31-70 (-27.2 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 70-135 (-35.1 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 1-13 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in road games after allowing 10 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 99-92 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 79-54 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 27-22 (+12.0 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
MAHOLM is 6-0 (+8.4 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
COLORADO is 38-57 (-20.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
COLORADO is 18-38 (-20.2 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
COLORADO is 7-18 (-12.1 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.
COLORADO is 38-57 (-20.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
COLORADO is 15-26 (-11.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
JIMENEZ is 6-14 (-9.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
JIMENEZ is 6-14 (-9.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
JIMENEZ is 4-11 (-9.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

PAUL MAHOLM vs. COLORADO since 1997
MAHOLM is 1-1 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 3.75 and a WHIP of 1.833.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.0 units)

UBALDO JIMENEZ vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
JIMENEZ is 0-0 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 0.714.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

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DETROIT (47 - 47) at BALTIMORE (45 - 48) - 7:05 PM
KENNY ROGERS (L) vs. GARRETT OLSON (L)
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 17-5 (+11.4 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 25-16 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
BALTIMORE is 40-38 (+6.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 36-27 (+14.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
DETROIT is 18-7 (+9.6 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
ROGERS is 195-144 (+39.4 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997. (Team's Record)
ROGERS is 171-124 (+38.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)
ROGERS is 30-12 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BALTIMORE is 209-264 (-85.1 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss since 1997.
BALTIMORE is 45-75 (-33.8 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

KENNY ROGERS vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
ROGERS is 5-5 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 5.18 and a WHIP of 1.421.
His team's record is 9-8 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-11. (-7.8 units)

GARRETT OLSON vs. DETROIT since 1997
No recent starts.

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball - Short Sheet

MLB
Short Sheet


Thursday, July 17th

National League

NY Mets at Cincinnati, 7:10 ET
Johan Santana (L) vs. Johnny Cueto (R)
Santana: Mets 11-2 in July
Cueto: Cin 9-23 off one run loss

San Diego at St. Louis, 8:15 ET
Jake Peavy (R) vs. Kyle Lohse (R)
Peavy: 12-1 Over Away off team loss
Lohse: 3-0 TSR, 0.86 ERA L3 starts

Pittsburgh at Colorado, 9:05 ET
Paul Maholm (L) vs. Ubaldo Jiminez (R)
Maholm: Pit 1-13 Away after allowing 10+ runs
Jiminez: 15-5 Under this season


American League

Detroit at Baltimore, 7:05 ET
Kenny Rogers (L) vs. Garret Olsen (L)
Rogers: Det 18-7 vs. lefties
Olsen: Bal 26-17 Over off a loss

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up


Thursday, July 17

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Hot Pitchers
-- Reds are 5-2 in Cueto's last seven home starts. Santana has a 2.37 RA in his last three starts- Mets lost six of his last seven.
-- Lohse is 2-0, 1.29 in his last three starts. Peavy is 2-1, 1.38 in his last four starts (14 scoreless IP in his last two starts).
-- Jimenez is 2-1, 1.86 in his last three starts. Maholm is 1-0, 1.96 in his last three outings.

-- None

Cold Pitchers
-- None

-- Olsen is 1-2, 8.53 in his last four starts. Rogers is 1-2, 5.19 in his last four outings.

Hot Teams
-- Mets won their last nine games, allowing 19 runs (nine in one game). Reds won seven of their last ten games.
-- Colorado won five of its last six home games.

Cold Teams
-- Cardinals lost three of last four home games. Padres lost five of their last seven games overall.
-- Pirates lost nine of their last twelve road games.

-- Orioles lost seven of their last eight games. Tigers lost three of their last four games.

Totals
-- Over is 5-2 in Cincinnati's last seven games.
-- Under is 5-2 in Cardinals' last seven games.
-- Last four games at Coors Field went over the total.

-- Over is 6-2 in last eight games at Camden Yards.

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Trend Sheet

MLB


Thursday, July 17

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Trend Sheet
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7:05 PM DETROIT vs. BALTIMORE
Detroit is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games


7:10 PM NY METS vs. CINCINNATI
NY Mets are 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Mets's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Cincinnati is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games


8:15 PM SAN DIEGO vs. ST. LOUIS
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games
St. Louis is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games at home


9:05 PM PITTSBURGH vs. COLORADO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 12 games
Colorado is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Colorado is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB


We will update when projected scores are available.

Thursday, July 17

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Tips and Trends
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Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles [7:05 PM ET]

Tigers (-115. O/U 10): Kenny Rogers will try to turn around a rough stretch from before the All-Star break when he faces the Orioles. Rogers has given up at least three runs in each of his last four starts after allowing one earned run or less four times in his previous five outings. He is 10-9 lifetime vs. Baltimore with a 4.67 ERA and went 3-4 in 10 road starts before the break with a 4.67 ERA.

Tigers are 20-8 in their last 28 games on grass.
The OVER is 7-3-1 in Detroit's last 11 Thursday games.

Key Injuries - OF Magglio Ordonez (.307; oblique) is expected to come off the DL.
SS Edgar Renteria (.254; hamstring) is day-to-day.

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD

Orioles : Garrett Olson still has not suffered a loss at home this season, but he also has not pitched well in his last two starts there. Olson has walked away with no-decisions in each of his last two home starts, surrendering 10 runs and 14 hits in 10 innings with three walks and six strikeouts. He remains 3-0 in six starts at Camden Yards with a 4.28 ERA and got pounded for seven runs in three innings of his last start at Toronto last Wednesday.

Orioles are 1-7 in their last 8 games overall.
The OVER is 6-2 in Baltimore's last 8 home games.

Key Injuries - 2B Alex Cintron (.275; hamstring) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD



New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds [7:10 PM ET]

Mets (-150, O/U 8): Johan Santana ended a personal four-game losing streak last time out against San Francisco last Wednesday and will now try to string together back-to-back wins for the first time since June 1st. The Mets dropped six straight with Santana on the mound before beating the Giants, and he is just 4-4 in 10 road starts with a 3.01 ERA. He faced the Reds back on May 10th and gave up three runs and 10 hits in six innings of a 12-6 victory.

Mets are 9-0 in their last 9 games overall.
Mets are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.

Key Injuries - OF Ryan Church (.307; post-concussion syndrome) is on the 15-day DL.
2B Luis Castillo (.265; hip) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD

Reds : Johnny Cueto will look to rebound from a loss last time out at Wrigley Field last Wednesday. Cueto had pitched well in winning his previous two starts, allowing three runs and 12 hits in 13.1 innings. However, the Cubs scored five runs on him in 6.2 innings of a 5-1 loss. He is 5-3 in 10 home starts this season with a 4.08 ERA and surrendered six runs and eight hits in 4.2 innings of an 8-3 loss at New York on May 11th.

Reds are 5-2 in their last 7 home games.
The UNDER is 8-2 in Cueto's last 10 home starts.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD



San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals [8:15 PM ET]

Padres: Jake Peavy brings a 14-inning scoreless streak into this meeting with the Cardinals, registering wins in each of his last two starts. He blanked the Braves and Diamondbacks in those outings, walking three and striking out 13. The Padres had lost his previous three starts and five of the last six before that. Peavy is 3-2 lifetime vs. St. Louis with a 2.89 ERA and 3-2 on the road this season with a 4.41 ERA.

Padres are 9-27 in the last 36 meetings at St. Louis.
The UNDER is 10-2 in San Diego's last 12 Thursday games.

Key Injuries - OF Brian Giles (.301; hamstring) is day-to-day.

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD

Cardinals (-115, O/U 7.5): St. Louis has gone 11-1 in Kyle Lohse's last 12 starts, and he is coming off one of his best outings of the season last time out at Pittsburgh. Lohse pitched seven scoreless innings, allowing six hits with one walk and three strikeouts. He has given up two runs or less in five of his last six starts, and he is a dominant 5-1 in 11 home starts with a 2.75 ERA. However, he is 0-2 lifetime vs. San Diego in three starts with a hefty 7.04 ERA.

Cardinals are 10-1 in Lohse's last 11 starts overall.
Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.

Key Injuries - OF Brian Barton (.246; hand) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD



Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies [9:05 PM ET]

Pirates: Paul Maholm has been very solid in his last five starts yet only has a 3-2 mark to show for it. Maholm has given up three runs or less each time during that stretch, including two or less four times. The Pirates scored just four runs combined for him in the two losses, with both coming on the road. In fact, he is only 1-4 in eight road starts with a 4.81 ERA.

Pirates are 3-9 in their last 12 road games.
Pirates are 7-1 in their last 8 Thursday games.

Key Injuries - 1B Adam LaRoche (.251; thumb) is day-to-day.

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD

Rockies (-135, O/U 9.5): Colorado has lost four of the last five times Aaron Cook has gone to the mound, due mostly to poor run support. The Rockies have scored five runs or less in all of those games, failing to score more than two runs three times. Cook allowed one run and six hits to the Mets in six innings of a 2-1 loss on Friday. He is 5-3 in nine home starts with a solid 3.39 ERA.

Rockies are 1-5 in their last 6 games overall.
The UNDER is 7-3-1 in Cook's last 11 home starts.

Key Injuries - OF Ryan Spilborghs (.314; oblique) is on the 15-day DL.
1B Todd Helton (back;.266) is on the 15-day DL.
SS Troy Tulowitzki (hand; .166) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Hot lines

MLB


Thursday, July 17

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Hot lines: Today’s MLB bets
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Hot lines: Thursday's best MLB bets

Detroit at Baltimore (-105, 10)

The Tigers have owned the O’s this season, winning five of their six meetings, but it’s no coincidence that Baltimore’s only win came in the first game of the first series back in April. In one of the oddest trends in baseball betting right now, the Orioles – a team three games below .500 overall – is a stunning 21-10 in Game 1s.

But trends like that should be taken with a grain of salt, especially considering these head-to-head results. It’s hard to trust Garrett Olsen after he’s posted an 8.36 ERA over his last three starts and Kenny Rogers has been inconsistent enough to make him a dangerous road favorite. So the “over” might be the best bet in this spot. These clubs are a combined 12-7-1 O/U through their last 10 games and the way Baltimore has been hitting at home this season, it could be a bad day for pitchers.

Pick: Over


San Diego at St. Louis (-115, 7 ½)

Forget about Jake Peavy. He might have one of the best ERAs in the National League, but it’s not like his starts are guaranteed wins. In fact, the Padres are a disappointing 7-8 when Peavy gets the ball, largely due to pathetic batting (.246 team average and fewest runs produced).

That makes me think that a team like St. Louis at home is a steal at this price, regardless of who they’re facing. The Cards have struggled in the past against Peavy, but this is a revitalized Redbirds lineup that is hitting .279 against right-handers this year. Peavy hasn’t yet gotten a look at St. Louis’ young sluggers like Jay Bruce and Joey Votto and he might be in for a unwelcome surprise.

Pick: Cardinals

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[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Streaking Pitchers

MLB

Thursday, July 17

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Streaking Starting Pitchers
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Thursday's streaking and slumping starters

Streaking

Kyle Lohse, St. Louis (11-2, 3.39)

Who expected this kind of start from Kyle Lohse? Before this year he had just two winning seasons in seven years and posted a sub-4.50 ERA only once.

Now he has helped the Cards to nine wins in his last 10 starts and has allowed just two earned runs over his last 21 innings.

"This was the one where I was the happiest about because of the way I went out and performed," Lohse told reporters after his last start. "I didn't feel like warming up I had the best stuff, but when you bear down and make pitches the way I was able to, it feels really good that you can go out there with that kind of stuff and do it."


Jake Peavy, Padres (7-5, 2.47)

Lohse will be in tough against a red-hot Jake Peavy. The Padres’ ace is coming off two straight seven-inning shutouts and has piled up at least six strikeouts in all but two of his last 10 starts.

However, San Diego doesn’t give its starters much run support to work with. Peavy has given up four runs only once in his last 10, but has just four wins to show for it.


Slumping

Garrett Olson, Baltimore (6-4, 5.65)

At least Baltimore’s rookie starter is getting a taste of the big leagues. Olson is having a tough time working deep into games and his last few outings haven’t been pretty. He is coming off a 9-8 loss to the Blue Jays, a start in which he gave up seven runs in less than four innings.

The lefty has allowed at least four runs in five of his last six trips to the hill, with his last five starts playing over the total.

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