Sunday Trends and Indexes 06/22

[Udog]

MLB


Sunday, June 22


Update
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Tips and Trends
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Los Angeles Angels at Philadelphia Phillies [1:35 PM ET]

Angels: Jered Weaver is 4-2 in his last six starts but he's been inconsistent during those outings. Three times during that span Weaver allowed two runs or less but in the other three appearances he gave up four runs or more. Weaver is an even 3-3 on the road this season but his ERA is a lofty 5.98. On the bright side, Weaver has pitched well in three of his previous four starts away from home. The OVER is 4-2 in Weaver's last six starts.

Angels are 7-1 in their last 8 road games.
The UNDER is 16-5-2 in LA's last 23 road games.

Key Injuries - RP Chris Bootcheck (0-1; shoulder) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

Phillies (-175, O/U 9): Cole Hamels has been dominating over his last three starts, allowing just four runs in 24 innings. In his last 10 starts, Hamels has allowed two runs or less six times. Opposing teams haven't had much luck when facing Hamels at Citizens Bank Park. Hamels has a stellar 2.73 ERA and batters are hitting just .200 against him in nine home starts. Even though Hamels has been impressive, the OVER is 6-4 the last 10 times he's taken the mound.

Phillies are 1-6 in their last 7 games overall.
The UNDER is 14-4 in Philadelphia's last 18 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 7



St. Louis Cardinals at Boston Red Sox [1:35 PM ET]

Cardinals: Joel Pineiro hasn't won a game since April 29 and the Cards have lost the last four times he's taken the hill. Pineiro has actually suffered from a lack of run support recently, offsetting three strong outings in a row. In his last 17.2 innings of work, Pineiro has allowed six runs but has a loss and two no-decisions over that span. Pineiro isn't the guy you want on the mound against the Red Sox. He's just 3-5 with an ERA of 6.75 in nine career starts versus Boston. The UNDER is 4-1 in Pineiro's last five starts.

Cardinals are 6-1 in their last 7 road games
Cardinals are 20-8 in their last 28 Sunday games.

Key Injuries - 1B Albert Pujols (.347; calf) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

Red Sox (-200, O/U 9.5): Jon Lester is really rolling right now. He's won three straight games, allowing just three runs in his last 20.1 innings of work. The problem Lester had last season was walking batters but he's really improved on that this year, allowing two walks or less seven times in his previous 10 starts. Lester has been a beast at home, going 4-1 with a 2.55 ERA in eight starts at Fenway Park.

Red Sox are 48-13 in their last 61 interleague games.
Red Sox are 40-13 in their last 53 home games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 6



Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Dodgers [4:10 PM ET]

Indians: Cliff Lee brings his 10-1 record West to take on the Dodgers. Lee had a four-game winning streak snapped his last time out against the Padres, taking a no-decision in an 8-3 Cleveland loss. In his last 10 starts, Lee has allowed two runs or less six times. The key to Lee's success has been control. He has given out just 14 walks compared to 76 strikeouts this season. Surprisingly, the OVER has cashed easily in each of Lee's last three starts.

The OVER is 8-2 in Cleveland's last 10 games overall.

Key Injuries - C Victor Martinez (.278; elbow surgery) is out 6-8 weeks.

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD

Dodgers (-165, O/U 8.5): Clayton Kershaw is 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA in his five starts this season. Kershaw hasn't gone deep into games but he's given the Dodgers a shot to win each time out, allowing two runs or less in four of his starts. Walks have been a bit of a problem for the rookie. He's given out 15 free passes in just 24 innings of work. The UNDER is 2-0 in Kershaw's two starts at Dodger Stadium this season.

Dodgers are 14-38 in their last 52 interleague games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: TBD



Detroit Tigers at San Diego Padres [4:05 PM ET]

Tigers (-125, O/U 8): Justin Verlander is just 2-6 with two no-decisions in his last 10 starts. However, if you look a little closer into those games, Verlander has actually pitched better than his record. In his last seven starts, Verlander has allowed three runs or less six times, yet has only two victories to show for it. In the four games the Tigers lost over that span, they scored only nine runs, with six coming in one game. Betting against Verlander on the road has been gold this year. In six starts he's 0-5 with a 5.35 ERA.

Tigers are 9-2 in their last 11 games overall.
The UNDER is 11-3 in Detroit's last 11 interleague games.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 5 (Side Play of the Day)

Padres: Randy Wolf isn't a difficult pitcher to figure out. When he's at home, that's good. When he's on the road, that's bad. Luckily for the Padres, Wolf is home in the friendly confines of Petco Park today, where he is 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA on the season. In Wolf's last three home starts, he's allowed just four runs over 21 innings of work. The UNDER is the way to go with Wolf on the mound. The UNDER is a strong 8-2 in his last 10 starts.

Padres are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
The OVER is 6-2 in San Diego's last 8 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (.263; back) is listed as day-to-day.

PROJECTED SCORE: 3



Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs [ESPN | 8:05 PM ET]

White Sox: Javier Vazquez is 2-1 in his last three starts but that has more to do with strong run support than it does his pitching. Vazquez has allowed 24 hits and 14 runs in his last 17.1 innings on the mound. Luckily for him, the White Sox have put up 27 runs over that span, including 26 in the two games Vazquez won. Vazquez has started 14 games against the Cubs over his career but has only factored in the decision six times, going 3-3 with an ERA of 4.84.

White Sox are 0-8 in their last 8 road games.
The UNDER is 21-9 in Chicago's last 30 road games.

Key Injuries - 1B Paul Konerko (.215; oblique) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

Cubs (-140): The Cubs are 4-1 in Ryan Dempster's last five starts. In those five games, Dempster has allowed just 10 runs over 31.1 innings. Betting Dempster at Wrigley Field has been close to a sure thing this season. In nine home starts he's 8-0 with an ERA of 2.83. In his last five home starts, Dempster has allowed a total of eight runs. It's hard to predict an OVER/UNDER when Dempster is on the mound. Eight of his 15 starts have landed on a total of either eight or nine runs scored.

Cubs are 13-0 in their last 13 home games.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Key Injuries - OF Alfonso Soriano (.283; broken hand) is out at least 6 weeks.

PROJECTED SCORE: 5

[pm530]

MLB


Sunday, June 22

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Sunday Night Baseball
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Sunday Night Baseball: Windy City standoff

When you think of interleague rivalries, none of them are more intense than the matchup we have featured on ESPN Sunday evening. Bragging rights in the Windy City are up for grabs when the White Sox travel to the North side to face the Cubs.

The Cubbies have definitely owned the Sox as of late. After their come from behind win on Friday night, the North Siders have now won seven of the last eight meetings dating back to July 2006.

The Cubs' torrid stretch looked like it was slowing a bit when they traveled to Tampa Bay this week. They had won 16 of 20 before getting swept in Tampa. They were staring their fourth straight loss in the face on Friday when they rallied from a 3-1 seventh inning deficit to capture a 4-3 win. That gave the Cubs a remarkable 13th straight win at home and pushed their Wrigley Field record to a stellar 30-8 on the season which is the best in the Majors. Every other team in baseball has at least 11 home losses with the exception of the Red Sox.

These are two of the top moneymaking teams in baseball this season. In fact, the Cubs are the number one cash cow at +$1,298 on the year (for the $100 per game bettor). They are also the No. 1 moneymaker at home at +$1,751. The White Sox slide in at No. 9 in overall profit at +$810 this season.

The pale hose try to get into the win column by sending Javier Vazquez to the hill. Vazquez had been lights out this year until the month of June hit. After giving up just 15 earned runs in his previous seven starts, Vazquez has now allowed 14 earned runs in his last three outings for a June ERA of 7.27.

In those three starts he has pitched 17.1 innings and allowed 31 base runners. Vazquez has actually picked up wins in two of those three games due to some terrific run support. The South Siders have scored a whopping 27 runs in his last three trips to the hill. Add the unusual run support to his poor showings in June and you can see why the average runs per game his last three starts is over 14. He has made three career starts against his cross-town rival and owns a 4.95 ERA in those appearances.

Chicago Cubs starter Ryan Dempster won't complain about pitching at Wrigley Field for this one. He is a perfect 8-0 at home this year with a paltry ERA of 2.93. However, he has yet to win a game on the road this year.

It doesn’t seem to matter if Dempster faces right-handed or left-handed lineups. Right-handers are hitting just .198 against him while lefties are struggling even more at .186.

Dempster, who is starting this year for the first time since 2003, has not made a career start against the White Sox.

Both teams have been 'under' plays so far this season. The Cubs have a 36-33 record favoring the under while the Sox are 40-32. Mike Estabrook is scheduled to be behind home plate and he is definitely a pitcher’s umpire.

Of the eight games he has been behind the dish, six of them have gone under the total. His average runs per game is just 7.25 this season and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is nearly 2-1. Almost 63 percent of the pitches he calls have been strikes.

Of course the wind at Wrigley Field and wreak havoc on either the pitchers or hitters depending on which way it is blowing so keep a close eye on that. As of Sunday morning, the wind was blowing lightly out to right field at seven mph. There is also a chance of scattered thunder showers in the forecast.

Will the Cubs continue to dominate at home or can the White Sox break the streak? Either way, it’s definitely must-see TV when these two rivals square off on ESPN Sunday night.

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[Udog]

MLB
Write-Up


Sunday, June 22

Hot Pitchers
-- Rockies won four of five Reynolds home starts.
-- Pettitte is 2-0, 0.60 in his last two starts.
-- Hamels is 2-0, 1.50 in his last three starts.
-- Lester is 3-0, 1.33 in his last three starts. Pineiro has 2.25 RA in two starts since coming off the DL.
-- Lannan is 0-4, 2.88 in his last four starts; Washington scored total of eight runs in his last five starts. Rangers are 8-1 on the road when Padilla starts.
-- Tampa Bay is 5-0 in Kazmir's home starts.
-- Parra is 4-0, 2.49 in his last four starts.
-- Lincecum is 3-0, 2.61 in his last six starts. Davies is 3-0, 1.46 in four starts this season.
-- Twins won seven of eight Hernandez home starts.
-- Miller is 1-0, 1.29 in his last two starts. A's are 5-0 at home in Duchscherer starts.
-- Padres won six of Wolf's seven home starts.
-- Cubs won all nine Dempster home starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Mets lost four of five Pelfrey road starts.
-- Reds lost five of Cueto's six road starts.
-- Weaver has 6.29 RA in his last four starts.
-- Snell is 1-5, 8.10 in his last six starts. Toronto is 2-6 on road when McGowan starts.
-- Astros lost eight of nine Backe road starts.
-- Braves lost last three Hudson starts (0-1, 3.86). Silva is 0-8 in his last nine starts, with a 8.87 RA.
-- Olson is 0-1, 9.00 in his last two starts.
-- Arizona lost three of Webb's last four road starts.
-- Billingsley has 4.66 RA in his last five home starts. Indians lost seven of eight Byrd road starts.
-- Detroit is 0-6 in Verlander's road starts.
-- Vazquez has 7.27 RA in his last three starts.

Hot Teams
-- Rockies won twelve of their last seventeen games.
-- Reds won their last three road games.
-- Pirates won their last four home games.
-- Bronx won seven of their last nine games, lost last two.
-- Red Sox are 19-6 in their last 25 home games. Cardinals won six of last seven road games.
-- Angels won eleven of last fourteen road games.
-- Rays won 26 of their last 31 home games.
-- Brewers won thirteen of last seventeen home games. Orioles won six of their last eight games.
-- Royals won six of their last seven games.
-- Twins won seven of their last eight games.
-- Tigers won eleven of their last fourteen games. Padres won eight of last nine at Petco Park.
-- Cubs won their last thirteen home games.

Cold Teams
-- White Sox lost their last eight road games.
-- Toronto is 1-9 in its last ten road games.
-- Phillies lost six of their last seven games.
-- Astros lost nine of ten, 18 of last 22 games.
-- Nationals are 6-14 in their last twenty games.
-- Braves lost ten of their last fifteen games. Mariners are 2-6 in their last eight games.
-- Giants lost six of their last eight games.
-- Mets lost six of last nine road games.
-- Marlins are 7-14 in last 21 road games. A's are 3-5 in last eight home games.
-- Dodgers lost their last three home games.
-- Arizona is 6-16 in its last 22 road games.

Totals
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Colorado games.
-- Under is 10-3 in last thirteen McGowan starts.
-- Five of last seven Cardinal games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-2 in Hamels' last seven home starts.
-- Four of last six Cincinnati road games went over the total.
-- Under is 10-3 in Houston's last thirteen road games.
-- Last six Lannan starts stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Hiudson starts stayed under the total.
-- Over is 7-2 in last nine games at Miller Park.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in last eleven Arizona games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight San Francisco games.
-- Last five Wolf starts stayed under the total.
-- Over is 18-4-2 in Florida's last 24 road games.
-- Under is 7-2 in last nine Billingsley starts.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in Dempster's last seven starts.

Umpires
-- NY-Colo-- Over is 10-4 in last 14 Meals games; favorites won his last five games.
-- Cin-NYY-- Underdog is 6-5 in last eleven Reliford games.
-- StL-Bos-- Favorite won last six Timmons games; favorite won his last four games behind dish.
-- Hst-TB-- Last six Reilly games stayed under the total.
-- Tor-Pitt-- Six of eight Hohn games stayed under the total.
-- LAA-Phil-- Five of seven Danley games went over total.
-- Blt-Mil-- Under is 10-3 in last thirteen Montague games.
-- Az-Minn-- Seven of last eight Knight games stayed under.
-- Sea-Atl-- Last six Holbrook games went over the total.
-- Tex-Wsh-- Home side won last nine Hoye games.
-- SF-KC-- Favorite won last six BWelke games behind dish.
-- Fla-A's-- Under is 6-0-1 in last seven Barksdale games.
-- Clev-LA-- Last four Nauert games stayed under the total.
-- Det-SD-- Underdog is 6-4 in last ten Joyce games.
-- Chi-Chi-- Six of eight Estabrook games stayed under total.

[Udog]

AFL
Write-Up


Sunday's Arena Football games:

Philadelphia (12-3) @ New York (8-7)-- Soul crushed NY 63-42 in Week 3 (-15), in game that was 28-21 at half. Dragons won four of last five home games, but are just 2-3 in last five overall. Soul won first nine games, then lost three of four, but has won two in row since their bye, although they allowed 64-61 points in the two wins. Over is 5-1-1 in Philly road games.

Dallas (12-3) @ Chicago (10-5)-- Dallas is 6-1 on road, losing at 12-3 Philly; Desperadoes won three of last four. Rush is 1-3 in last four games; they're 1-4 when they score less than 50 pts, 9-1 if they score 50+. Chicago is 6-1 at home, also losing only to the Soul. Five of last six Chicago games stayed under the total; five of last six Dallas games went over the total.

[Udog]

WNBA
Long Sheet


Sunday, June 22


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DETROIT (9 - 3) at ATLANTA (0 - 12) - 6/22/2008, 3:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHOENIX (4 - 6) at NEW YORK (5 - 5) - 6/22/2008, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in May, June, or July games this season.
NEW YORK is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 2-2 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 3-1 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (3 - 7) at SACRAMENTO (5 - 6) - 6/22/2008, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SACRAMENTO is 124-82 ATS (+33.8 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
SACRAMENTO is 42-17 ATS (+23.3 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997.
SACRAMENTO is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in home games on Sunday games since 1997.
CHICAGO is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in May, June, or July games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 4-1 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 3-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (6 - 5) at LOS ANGELES (8 - 3) - 6/22/2008, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 59-85 ATS (-34.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
INDIANA is 40-62 ATS (-28.2 Units) against Western conference opponents since 1997.
INDIANA is 40-62 ATS (-28.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) in home games after allowing 75 points or more since 1997.
LOS ANGELES is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games after scoring 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 3-2 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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