Are you a Capper or a Contrarian tonight?

[wayne1218]

In the end, i think the Lakers Win by about 5-7 points.

[Three Jack]

To clarify, Lakers cover games 3 and 4, Celts win on the court Game 5.

[GrandPa]

This is a great thread, and encompasses all of the difficult issues of picking a side tonite. A good case can be made for either side tonite, and yet only one will ultimately prevail. The big winner will be the sportsbooks, as the action will be split and big enough that there is enough to go around.

But since we are all players, we have to rely on gut instincts, as the numbers are available to everyone.

The most important, IMO, are:
1) LA 8-0 at home ( 6-2 ATS) in postseason
2) Bos 2-6 on road, ( 2-6 ATS) in postseason
3) Bos 4-0 versus LA this season

The line should be 6 or 7, IMO, but since it is 9, 9.5 or 10, it is indeed fishy, and makes it a difficult decision. Most people feel that LA will win SU, but how many feel it will be a DD win? It is hard to conceive that a team that hasn't beaten the other one all year can win by 10 or more. And I agree with Wayne that the LA comeback did more good for Boston than LA. If Boston would have won by 15 or so or more, I would think it would be natural to expect a more complacent Celtics effort tonite. But since they almost let it get away, I can't see a letdown.

Defense wins championships, and the contrasting styles here are resembling the Det-LA series a few years back. I was wise enough then to play DET at +750 to win the series, and it was easier than that, as LA was lucky to win one game.

That said , I think this is the game that LA has the best shot at winning and covering.

The officiating will favor the Lakers, as they are the home team, a disgusting characteristic of the NBA. I don't see Kobe going to the line a lot, as he has abandoned that game in this and the last series. But if the cheap touch fouls go the other way, and LA gets more physical ( is it in their DNA?) then covering DD is possible.

[celtics72]

Greek, 1st of all, sorry to hear about your aunt, I just lost my mother, and it is a horrible experience to go through. Secondly, I would never compare my capping skills to yours, but here is why I think Boston ****** this game by a 3pointer or so. Even though I am a Celtics fan, I see them losing this game tonight, the Lakers will play better, PJ has done his usual complain about the officials press conference, and Powe will certainly not score at will tonight.
However, if you read John Hollinger's article on ESPN.com today, it states that the Lakers were only called for 7 more fouls Sunday (28-21), but they were all fouls on Driving Celtics. The other issue with thr Lakers has been all the midrange jumpers they have been shooting, which we all know is a skill many NBA players lack, since it doesn't make it into the highlight reels. If you eliminate Garnett/Cassell/Kobe, who all shoot the 13-23 footer very well, the Celtics only shot from midrange 26% of the time, while the Lakers shot from their 39% of the time. Those are lower percentage shots, more likely to be missed, don't have the added value of an extra point & lead to longer rebounds and fast breaks. If they keep shooting those jumpers, even cloning Bennett Salvatore and having them both ref tonight won't help.

Here is why I think the line is 10--Vegas knows that all the "experts" were picking the Lakers to win, they also know that the public will never believe the Lakers will lose 3 in a row. Many will blame the losses on the refs, but the Lakers have been dominated for a large part of 2 games, just as they were in the regular season. Add in the monstrous comeback in the 4th (which as a Celts fan, I actually think that helps keep Boston from getting lazy), and Vegas knows that people will play the Lakers at any number and they jacked it up a bit. Even knowing it would be high, I was shocked to see 9.5. I am not saying the Lakers won't cover, because I think the Lakers reserves shoot better from 3 at home, offsetting another sub 50$ from Kobe, I just think that Boston is the right side by 2-4 points, which means it will come down to a garbage bucket of covering either way.
Good Luck & God Bless in your time of loss
celtics72

[WayneChung]

I AGREE WITH ONE THING BOSS-LINE LOOKS FISHIER THAN A CARP-vegas is definitely wanting some action on boston...with that being said,i hate these guessing game lin4es-think i will just watch it !!

[tech fan]

I Think The Lakers Roll Easy Tonight.all I Keep Thinking About In My Head Is That Boston Lost To The Atlanta Hawks 3 Games All Being Away Games.that Series Should Have Been A Clear Cut Boston Sweep.something Has Happened To Boston On The Road Since The Playoffs Began.rondo,and Allen Probably The 2 Main Reasons.i Got Burned Yesterday By Going With A Ariz St -450 Line That Looked Way To Easy.gotta Go With The -9 Tonight.i Think You Can Be A Capper And A Contrarian In Some Situations.i Put The Line At Lakers -6 So Its Only A 3 Point Difference.

[tech fan]

What Does Everyone Think About The Total 195.5


I Think It Goes Over


Game 1 Had All The Makings Of An Over Until I Jinxed That Bet In The In Game Thread And They Did Not Hit Anything In The 4th Quarter

Game2 Went Over By 20 Points Line Was 192 Score Was 108-104 With 66 Points Scored In The 4th Quarter

[wayne1218]

I Think The Lakers Roll Easy Tonight.all I Keep Thinking About In My Head Is That Boston Lost To The Atlanta Hawks 3 Games All Being Away Games.that Series Should Have Been A Clear Cut Boston Sweep.something Has Happened To Boston On The Road Since The Playoffs Began.rondo,and Allen Probably The 2 Main Reasons.i Got Burned Yesterday By Going With A Ariz St -450 Line That Looked Way To Easy.gotta Go With The -9 Tonight.i Think You Can Be A Capper And A Contrarian In Some Situations.i Put The Line At Lakers -6 So Its Only A 3 Point Difference.

I agree, people can be a capper and a contrarian on different occasions. I was wondering which way they were going in just one game, tonight.


I also think 3 points in a line is alot. It is very weird that Boston has not received as many as 7 points in any game this season but they are getting 10 tonight? Very weird so you may be a winner!

[tech fan]

I agree, people can be a capper and a contrarian on different occasions. I was wondering which way they were going in just one game, tonight.


I also think 3 points in a line is alot. It is very weird that Boston has not received as many as 7 points in any game this season but they are getting 10 tonight? Very weird so you may be a winner!

WELL GOOD LUCK BUDDY EITHER WAY YOU CHOOSE.INYOUR OPINION WHERE WILL THE SMART $$$$$$$ BE.SMART $$$$$$$$$ WILL MAKE UP MORE OF THE VEGAS AMMOUNT WAGERED WHILE THE PUBLIC BETTING WILL PROBABLY BE ALL ON BOSTON JUST IN SMALLER AMMOUNTS

[tech fan]

The Total Looks Fishy Also Buddy

[griswold]

the line is high for a reason. Everyone expects the lakers to win in a rout.

I agree with them.

Teams returning home down 2-0 in the playoffs (not including round one) is an unbelievably strong trend (unbeaten so far this year).

EVERYBODY knows about this trend, however. That's why the line is so high.

I like the Lakers by double digits but would have made it a much stronger play with a lower point spread

[molta02]

lakers HUGE

[wayne1218]

WELL GOOD LUCK BUDDY EITHER WAY YOU CHOOSE.INYOUR OPINION WHERE WILL THE SMART $$$$$$$ BE.SMART $$$$$$$$$ WILL MAKE UP MORE OF THE VEGAS AMMOUNT WAGERED WHILE THE PUBLIC BETTING WILL PROBABLY BE ALL ON BOSTON JUST IN SMALLER AMMOUNTS

Hard to tell really. I know one thing, Vegas is real close to L.A. so i'm sure the Lakers are getting alot of local run!

[wayne1218]

The Total Looks Fishy Also Buddy

I think it is about right. It is a little higher than it was in Boston but i expect the Lakers offense to be better at home and Boston's "D" to be a little worse. Hence, 5 points higher.

[myrjimmy3]

i also think the lakers cover tonight. i think the obvious thing would be to take boston..i guess im contarian it up as well tonight. as far as the back number goes i think its right on but ima play the under small. no 66 point fourth quarter this time around