Are you a Capper or a Contrarian tonight?

[wayne1218]

Looking at tonight's NBA game it is clear to me that i must be either a capper and go with Boston or a Contrarian and go with Los Angeles. Not looking or caring about the rest of the public and what they wager, it is really that cut and dry. Do i look at this game on paper and go with what it clearly shows me OR do i look at that, look at this line, and say something is fishy here?

As gamblers, we all tend to over think things most of the time and most that don't think they do, probably do it more than others. How many times have you lost a wager in which you went back and forth on the side, ended up losing the wager, and was pissed because you knew you had the right side to begin with? It happens all the time.

Looking at tonight's game, i'm puzzled by the line and my 1st instinct was to say the line is too high. I'm one who actually thinks Boston blowing that big lead late the other night may help them more than the Lakers. Getting complacent and blowing that lead may keep them from thinking this will be easier than it is. A 25 point win may have had Boston feeling too relaxed heading back to L.A. and now i do not think that is the case.

I'm not sure which way i am going tonight but based on the facts below, i'm leaning towards Boston. Most know i "Cap" games and i rarely take the contrarian approach. Many others like the contrarian approach and do very well with it. It is all about what you are comfortable doing with your money. I see a few people already taking the contrarian approach and pounding L.A.


Capping
--------

Boston had the Best road record in the NBA this season with 31 Wins. Nobody else in the League even had 28.

Boston Won their only meeting with the Lakers in Los Angeles by 19 points. It was the Lakers worst home loss of the season. No, they didn't have Gasol but they did have Bynum and a nice record. Please do not tell me L.A. was struggling then either because they won the 4 games before playing Boston and they went on to win 7 more in a row after that 19 point home loss. In a 12 game stretch, it was their only loss. The Lakers started (26-11) and 2 of those losses (Both by DD) were to Boston, so i don't want to hear how bad they were before Gasol. With Bynum, they were still playing very well.

Boston has played 50 road games this year including the Playoffs (Where they struggled), and they only lost 5 games total by 10 or more points. That is 1 out of every 10 or a measely 10%. The line is -9.5

Boston is (4-0) against L.A. this season and Kobe has not reached his season average in any of the 4 games, only scoring 30 once. His FG % against Boston is his lowest vs any opponent this season.

In the postseason Boston has been questioned on the road struggling in the 1st two rounds but they got back on track winning 2 of 3 in Detroit in their most recent series.


Contrarian
------------

Plain & Simple. This line is fishy.

The Lakers are (8-0) @ Home this postseason.

In 2 home games vs Denver they were only favored by -8.5 and -8.5 in each game. The Lakers won both by 14 and 15.

In the Utah series at home, the Lakers were favored by -6.5, -8 and -8.5 in 3 games. L.A. covered 2 of 3.

Against S.A. in 3 home games L.A. was favored by -7.5, -6.5 and -7.5. The Lakers covered 2 of 3.

Why in the world is L.A. favored by more against Boston (-9.5) than any other team they have played at home in the post season? Denver?? San Antonio is another team Boston beat twice during the regular season and they never got +9 once in that series.

Boston has not been a dog all year of a spread higher than +6. Think about that. Not once have they received +7 or more points in a game all season and in the finals after being up (2-0) against a team that they are (4-0) against, now they are bloated all the way up to +9.5???

Boston had the best road record this season and they are (4-0) against L.A. but the line is -9.5???



It would be very easy to go either way in this game and use the above facts in your argument. My question to you guys is which side of the fence are you sitting on tonight? Capper or Contrarian?

Hopefully the info above helps you decide.

[wayne1218]

If Boston c overs, the line was simply too high and it was too many points to give a team this good.

If L.A. c overs, you can thank Vegas for giving you the Winner the minute they set the fishy line.

Either way, i hope you all end up on the right side tonight!

[Brady22]

Lakers In A Blowout!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[wayne1218]

Depending on tonight's outcome, you will either feel like a genius or an idiot for going in the direction that you did!

[wayne1218]

Lakers In A Blowout!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

= Contrarian

[Three Jack]

Lakers win the next two, Celts win game 5.

[wayne1218]

I'm more interested in the cover 3J, not the win. The whole thread is based on tonight's line.

[kbsooner21]

I could play either side tonight. My first instinct was to play the Lakers after Game 2. That was when I thought the line was going to be 6 or 7 at the most though. Lakers seem like the right side, but I'll prolly be on Boston

[Kaptain]

I think the Lakers win tonight, as I've said all along, the Home team, OMO will win their respective home games, thus Boston in 7....

Do they cover and win by 10.....

I say NO......taking the Celts + 9 1/2, even though the OddsMakers layedit so high.....

I think they both have their respective runs, but I think Celts D will keep it close......Lakers need to start re bounding to beat the Celts by 10......

Kobe will have his game, the Lakers their foul shots, but I feel rebounding, and second chances go to Celts....

Strictly a KAPPER, notice that's with a K

[griffey_mojo]

I think they "inflated" the line know that there will be tons of people willing to play LA no matter what...thinking that there is no way this team will go down 3-0. JMO

[frankb03]

Lakers win the next two, Celts win game 5.

Lakers might win but do they c_over. We all know winning and covering are two different things.

[GOLDENGREEK]

I'm unfairly called a straight up caontarian so here is some capping:

First, lets begin with the fact that Kobe will probably be on the FT line about 20 times with the fact they have complained about officiating the entire series. Phil Jackson has already played his foul calling card. Tonight, it wille even out big time.

Secondly, lets talk about the fact that the Celtics do not have a viable PG option when they are on the road. Rondo is a completly different player away from home. He hasnt played one good game yet on the road the entire playoffs so the Celts basically are playing without a point guard tonight.

Third, how about the fact that Ray Allen has only produced one time on the road since the Atlanta series, and is now being annoited as a great shooter again. Lets see him continue it on the road

Fourth, how about the fact that role players win games at home and star players win games on the road. PP will get his points tonight, but KG has shown time and time again that he goes away in big playoff games on the road. The Lakers role players will excel tonight in front of their home crowd, while the high-energy Boston players will find themselves in foul troubel by the 2nd quarter. I havent seen Doc Rivers play Leon Powe in a road game yet the entire playoffs . His stubborness to sit House over Cassell is another issue

Then there is all the extra things that are going on in this game. This is a great spot for the Lakers to come out hard charging and get big contributions from the players that have hurt them so far this series. Pau has shown the ability to score on Garnett, and the role players will play a much larger role tonight. Look for the scubs like Vuk , Walton to contribute points

Realize that Joey Crawford and Bennet Slavatore are doing this game tonight. Do you know that all 3 refs have home teams with winning records ATS this season? Do you know that the Lakers have won 9 of their L10 games in which Salvatore has officated. He is teh biggest Lakers homer ref in the laegue, and Stern has him on this game for that exact fact.

Lakers are 8-0 straight up and 6-2 ATS at home in the playoffs

Boston is 2-6 SU on the road in the playoffs and 2 -6 ATS


I predicted im my another thread -- dont know if it was the fake Pierce injury one or my thread on Tuesday that the line would be insanely high -- its high for a reason

Lakers by 15 +

[weazel079]

Lakers win but Celtics cover

[vols fan]

I'm unfairly called a straight up caontarian so here is some capping:

First, lets begin with the fact that Kobe will probably be on the FT line about 20 times with the fact they have complained about officiating the entire series. Phil Jackson has already played his foul calling card. Tonight, it wille even out big time.

Secondly, lets talk about the fact that the Celtics do not have a viable PG option when they are on the road. Rondo is a completly different player away from home. He hasnt played one good game yet on the road the entire playoffs so the Celts basically are playing without a point guard tonight.

Third, how about the fact that Ray Allen has only produced one time on the road since the Atlanta series, and is now being annoited as a great shooter again. Lets see him continue it on the road

Fourth, how about the fact that role players win games at home and star players win games on the road. PP will get his points tonight, but KG has shown time and time again that he goes away in big playoff games on the road. The Lakers role players will excel tonight in front of their home crowd, while the high-energy Boston players will find themselves in foul troubel by the 2nd quarter. I havent seen Doc Rivers play Leon Powe in a road game yet the entire playoffs . His stubborness to sit House over Cassell is another issue

Then there is all the extra things that are going on in this game. This is a great spot for the Lakers to come out hard charging and get big contributions from the players that have hurt them so far this series. Pau has shown the ability to score on Garnett, and the role players will play a much larger role tonight. Look for the scubs like Vuk , Walton to contribute points

Realize that Joey Crawford and Bennet Slavatore are doing this game tonight. Do you know that all 3 refs have home teams with winning records ATS this season? Do you know that the Lakers have won 9 of their L10 games in which Salvatore has officated. He is teh biggest Lakers homer ref in the laegue, and Stern has him on this game for that exact fact.

Lakers are 8-0 straight up and 6-2 ATS at home in the playoffs

Boston is 2-6 SU on the road in the playoffs and 2 -6 ATS


I predicted im my another thread -- dont know if it was the fake Pierce injury one or my thread on Tuesday that the line would be insanely high -- its high for a reason

Lakers by 15 +

Didn't realize that about the officials.That might be what makes me take the Lakers.Nice info

[wayne1218]

I'm unfairly called a straight up caontarian so here is some capping:

First, lets begin with the fact that Kobe will probably be on the FT line about 20 times with the fact they have complained about officiating the entire series. Phil Jackson has already played his foul calling card. Tonight, it wille even out big time.

Secondly, lets talk about the fact that the Celtics do not have a viable PG option when they are on the road. Rondo is a completly different player away from home. He hasnt played one good game yet on the road the entire playoffs so the Celts basically are playing without a point guard tonight.

Third, how about the fact that Ray Allen has only produced one time on the road since the Atlanta series, and is now being annoited as a great shooter again. Lets see him continue it on the road.

Fourth, how about the fact that role players win games at home and star players win games on the road. PP will get his points tonight, but KG has shown time and time again that he goes away in big playoff games on the road. The Lakers role players will excel tonight in front of their home crowd, while the high-energy Boston players will find themselves in foul troubel by the 2nd quarter. I havent seen Doc Rivers play Leon Powe in a road game yet the entire playoffs . His stubborness to sit House over Cassell is another issue

Then there is all the extra things that are going on in this game. This is a great spot for the Lakers to come out hard charging and get big contributions from the players that have hurt them so far this series. Pau has shown the ability to score on Garnett, and the role players will play a much larger role tonight. Look for the scubs like Vuk , Walton to contribute points

Realize that Joey Crawford and Bennet Slavatore are doing this game tonight. Do you know that all 3 refs have home teams with winning records ATS this season? Do you know that the Lakers have won 9 of their L10 games in which Salvatore has officated. He is teh biggest Lakers homer ref in the laegue, and Stern has him on this game for that exact fact.

Lakers are 8-0 straight up and 6-2 ATS at home in the playoffs

Boston is 2-6 SU on the road in the playoffs and 2 -6 ATS


I predicted im my another thread -- dont know if it was the fake Pierce injury one or my thread on Tuesday that the line would be insanely high -- its high for a reason

Lakers by 15 +

To me, the 1st few points are more "Assumption" rather than "Capping". In the S.A. series Kobe had a total of 11 FT attempts in 5 games!!! He only had 10 FT attempts in 3 home games. Their defense kept him out of the lane like Boston has. Kobe had 6 & 7 FT attempts in games 1 & 2 in Boston. He may get their more tonight but it isn't like he has been going there alot lately in the last 2 series now. Ray Allen also struggled just as much at home as he did away except for one game too. I think his change in play is based more on the lack of Lakers defense more than anything else. Cleveland and Detroit was a tough matchup for him. L.A. has been a little easier. You are right on about Rondo on the road but the lack of defense on L.A.'s part leaves that in question too. He has 23 assists in 2 games and he seems to be finding plenty of open guys. I think L.A. needs to step up their defense if they want to win and cover tonight. If they can do that, your huge wager will pay nicely!