Saturday Trends and Indexes 04/05

[Udog]

NBA


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Pick 'n' Roll: Saturday's best NBA bets
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Boston at Charlotte (+9 1/2, 192)

The Celtics come into this matchup after one of the longer layoffs they've had in a while. Let?'s hope Doc Rivers took the time to go over some video of their recent meetings with Charlotte and come up with a better game plan tonight.

These teams sit at opposite ends of the NBA spectrum (Boston has the best record in the league, while Charlotte is better than only seven NBA teams) but the Bobcats have covered the spread in all three meetings this year. They even earned a straight-up win in Boston a couple of months back, something only five other teams have accomplished this year.

All the games were tightly contested and the Celtics' recent 108-100 home win was the largest margin of victory, but it wasn?t even close to the 18 points they were laying in that game.

Charlotte won't have fresh legs in this one. They played in Toronto last night and this will be their sixth game in the last eight days. However, even though they're a number of games out of the playoff picture, they haven?t been mathematically eliminated. In addition, coach Sam Vincent is trying to convince the team owners that he's made progress with the Bobcats as rumors about his job security circle in Charlotte. That makes wins vital for Vincent at this point in time.

Pick: under 192


Sacramento at Denver (-11, 234)

It's hard to look at a Denver Nuggets total without thinking "over", especially when they're putting up points in the fashion they have been recently (120 per game over last five). But with the absence of a starting forward in this matchup, will they be able to play over for the third straight time?

The Nuggets will be playing without Kenyon Martin, who was suspended for one game for exceeding the NBA limit on flagrant fouls. Obviously, the Nuggets rely mainly on Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson for offense, but Martin has become a bigger contributor recently. He is averaging 17.7 points over the last 10 games.

However, the biggest impact will probably be felt on defense because Martin is second on the team with 80 blocked shots and third in defensive rebounds. He was also supposed to guard Ron Artest, who averages more than 20 points per game for the Kings and was a major problem for the Nuggets the last time these teams met.

Pick: over 234

[Udog]

NHL


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Ice picks: Saturday's best NHL bets
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Florida vs. Washington (-320, 5 1/2)

Chalk doesn't get a whole lot bigger than this in the NHL, but there's a good reason why the Caps are favored so heavily tonight.

If Washington wins, or at least takes the game to overtime, it wins the Southeast Division and the No. 3 playoff position. If the Capitals lose in regulation, it's time to shine up the Callaways.

Last night the Panthers broke the hearts of Carolina backers when they beat the Canes, who will surely be watching this game on TV tonight. They are praying for another Panthers victory in regulation.

Pick: Capitals -1 1/2 (-130)



Calgary vs. Vancouver (-115, 5)

Oh dear. Vancouver is out of the playoffs.

There was tearshed, frustration and a sense of total devastation following the elimination loss to Edmonton Thursday night. Now they have to go pretend like they care for one final game tonight.

As it stands right now, the Flames would play San Jose in the first round of the playoffs. If they win tonight though, there's a chance they could play the Minnesota Wild in the first round if the Avs don't win their last game.

Not that either of the Sharks or the Wild are easy opponents, but given the choice, we think the Flames would rather play the Wild.

Pick: Calgary +105



Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta (-120, 5 1/2)

In a switch from teams reaching for the playoffs, this game is the complete opposite. The Lightning are tied for last place in the league with the L.A. Kings with just one game each to play.

That's important because Monday is the draft lottery for the NHL and the team that finishes last has the best shot at the No. 1 pick. Steve Stamkos is the undisputed, much-hyped No. 1 prospect and any team would love to nab him.

With the Lightning without their star Vincent Lecavalier after he injured his shoulder last game, they have plenty of reason to lose tonight.

Pick: Atlanta -120

[pm530]

Major League Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up


Saturday, April 5

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Terms "hot/cold pitchers" is relative, since for the next week or so, it refers to last year, Please keep that in mind.

Hot Pitchers
-- Giants won six of Correia's last seven starts.
-- Mets won six of last nine Maine starts.
-- Padres are 11-4 in last fifteen Peavy starts.
-- Cardinals won six of last nine Wainwright starts. Chico is 2-0, 3.77 in his last three starts, all National wins.
-- Arizona won six of last eight Webb starts.

-- Bronx won 10 of last 13 Pettitte starts.
-- Litsch was 3-0, 1.27 in his last three starts. Buchholz was 2-1, 2.75 in three starts LY, with a no-hitter.
-- Batista was 3-0, 0.92 in his last three '07 starts. Loewen was
2-0, 4.15 in his six starts LY.
-- Willis was on winning side in his last four starts.
-- Royals won four of last five Meche starts. Hernandez was on winning side in his last three home starts.
-- Indians won eight of last ten Sabathia starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Marquis has an 8.05 RA in his last four starts. Astros lost last four Oswalt starts, scoring total of seven runs (0-2, 3.08).
-- Parra was 0-0, 6.00 in two starts for Brewers LY.
-- Braves are 3-5 in last eight Hudson starts.
-- Harang is 0-3, 5.14 in his last three starts. Eaton is 1-4, 7.71 in his last ten starts.
-- Hendrickson was on losing side in seven of last nine starts. Maholm allowed 17 runs in 4.2 IP in his last two '07 starts; he was pushed back to here because of slight injury.
-- Francis is 2-2, 6.44 in his last five starts.

-- Rays are 4-13 in Jackson's last 17 starts.
-- White Sox lost six of Floyd's last seven starts.
-- Weaver is 0-2, 3.31 in his last three starts. Millwood is 1-4 in his last five starts, with a 4.88 RA.
-- Eveland allowed two runs in 2.1 IP in his only '07 start.

Pitchers vs Teams
-- Marquis had 6.96 RA in four starts vs Astros LY. Oswalt had 1-1, 5.65 mark vs Cubs LY, allowing nine runs in 5.1 IP in only start at Wrigley.
-- Harang alllowed five runs in six IP in his only '07 start vs the Phillies, same as Eaton in his only start against the Reds.
-- Wainwright was 0-1, 3.14 in two starts vs Nationals LY. .
-- Hudson was 2-1, 3.79 in six '07 starts against Mets. Maine is 1-1, 3.93 in his last three starts against the Braves.
-- Penny allowed one run in seven IP in only '07 start vs SD. Dodgers were 0-5 vs Peavy LY (3-0, 2.08).
-- Maholm was 1-1, 4.61 against Florida LY.
-- Webb was 1-3, 6.00 in six starts vs Colorado LY. Francis was 2-1, 2.45 in four starts vs Arizona LY.

-- Buchholz lost 6-1 at Toronto last Sept 19 (two runs/4.2 IP). Litsch won two of three starts against Red Sox LY.
-- Pettitte had 6.43 RA in four '07 starts against Tampa Rays. Jackson was 1-1, 6.43 in three '07 starts vs Bronx.
-- Floyd was 1-1, 4.32 in three starts vs Detroit LY. Willis gave up four runs in one IP in only start vs White Sox LY.
-- Meche was 1-2, 3.10 against the Twins LY.
-- Sabathia was 1-1, 4.60 against the A's LY.
-- Millwood was 1-2, 4.15 in four '07 starts vs Angels. Weaver had 2.84 RA in three '07 starts against Rangers.

Totals
-- Three of first four Giant games stayed under the total. .
-- Four of first five Houston games stayed under the total.
-- Three of first four Philly games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-3 in last ten Wainwright starts.
-- Mets scored 24 runs in their first three games, all overs.
-- Under is 3-0-1 in first four Dodger games.
-- Over is 3-0-1 in first four Florida games.
-- Three of first four Arizona games stayed under total.

-- Three of first four Bronx games stayed under.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in Boston games, 3-0-1 in Toronto tilts.
-- Four of first five Minnesota games stayed under total.
-- Last six Floyd starts stayed under the total.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in Oakland games.
-- Four of last five Loewen starts stayed under total.
-- Under is 5-2 in last seven Weaver starts.

Hot Teams
-- Brewers won three of their first four games.
-- Cardinals won last three games, outscoring foes 16-7.
-- Dodgers won three of their first four games.

-- Royals won three of first four games.
-- Angels won three of their last four games.

Cold Teams
-- Giants lost three of their first four games.
-- Cubs lost three of their first four games.
-- Braves lost three of their first four games.
-- Rockies lost last three games, outcored 19-4.

-- Tigers lost first four games, scoring total of ten runs.
-- Minnesota lost three of its last four games. .

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[pm530]

College Basketball – Write up

NCAAB
Write-up


Saturday, April 5

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Final Four writeups

Kansas didn't play anyone over the 8 seed in their regional, so they've had easiest time getting to this point. Stewart, one of their subs,broke his kneecap Friday in practice. Kansas beat Boston College 85-60, Georgia Tech 71-66 in their games with ACC opponents. UNC didn't play any Big 12 teams. Jayhawks are 19-0 out of conference. Weight of world off Kansas after it escaped spunky Davidson in regional final to finally get Self into a Final Four. I would lean to both dogs in today's games.

Memphis suspending backup PG Allen, a senior, can't be good for the Tigers, who are making first trip to Final Four since the 1985 tournament, though Calipari was in Final Four during his tenure at UMass. UCLA lost national title game last two years, so they're used to this atmosphere. Memphis beat USC 62-58, Arizona 76-63 in its two games vs Pac-10 foes this year. Only non-conference game Bruins lost was by hoop to Texas when they led by 11 points at halftime.

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[pm530]

National Basketball Association – Write up

NBA
Write-up


Saturday, April 5

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NBA Games

Cavaliers covered one of last six games (2-4 SU); eight of their last ten home games stayed under total. Cavs lost two of three vs Orlando this year- Magic won 117-116 here Nov 14. Magic lost three of their last four, with eight of last ten going under.

76ers won 109-104 in Atlanta last night, fifth win in last seven games- they won four of their last five at home. Atlanta is 5-1 in last six games as they'll make playoffs for first time in while. Five of their last six games went over the total.

Celtics won, covered their last five games, with last three going under total- they won two of three vs Bobcats this year, taking 96-95 decision in last visit here. Charlotte won four of last six games, with their last three games going over the total.

Raptors lost three of last four games- they're 4-12 vs spread in last 16 games- their last five games went over total. Toronto is 2-0 vs Nets this season, winning by 37-18 points. Jersey lost its last four games, with four of last five going over total.

Wizards lost three of last four games; their last five games all went over the total; road team won both their games with the Bulls. Chicago is 0-5 vs spread in game after its last five wins. Four of their last five games went over the total.

Denver won six of last seven games; eight of their last eleven games went over total- they won couple of games against the Kings by total of five points. Sacramento won laat three games by 13-1-12 points- their last three road games went over total.

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[pm530]

National Hockey League – Write up

NHL
Write-up


Saturday, April 5

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Today's NHL analysis

Hot Teams
-- Ducks won six of their last eight games.
-- Florida is 10-4 in its last fourteen games. Washington won six in row, nine of last 10- they haven't clinched playoff spot yet.
-- Canadiens won six of their last seven games.
-- Bruins are 4-2 in last six games- they clinched playoff spot. Sabres are 6-4 in their last ten games.

Cold Teams
-- Columbus lost three in row, six of last seven games. St Louis lost three in row, 17 of last 20 games.
-- Kings are 1-4 in game after their last five wins.
-- Maple Leafs lost four of their last five games.
-- Lightning lost last three games, outscored 12-3. Thrashers lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Flames lost five of last six games, still made playoffs. Not so lucky are Canucks, who lost six of last seven games.

Series Records
-- Blues won three of last four games against Columbus.
-- Ducks won five of their last six games against the Kings.
-- Panthers lost three of last four against Washington.
-- Underdog won five of last six Montreal-Toronto games.
-- Thrashers won last five games against Tampa Bay.
-- Buffalo is 16-7 in last 23 vs Bruins, but 4-5 in last nine.
-- Calgary lost six of last seven against Vancouver.

Totals
-- Seven of last eight Columbus games stayed under total.
-- Over is 8-2 in Kings' last ten visits to Anaheim.
-- Under is 6-3 in last nine Florida-Washington games.
-- Over is 5-0-1 in last six Toronto games.
-- Three of laat four Tampa games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 8-3 in last eleven Buffalo games.
-- Seven of last nine Calgary games stayed under total.

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[Dennis14072]

Good morning, Dennis! What do you think in the Final Four today? At this point, I'm kinda thinking UNC and UCLA but I've decided nothing!

Liking Memphis and UNC. Then again, game times a long ways away.