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Good read for those who go the other way all the time it doesnt work anymore people

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  • #31
    It is never full proof -- the last 3 days are proof of it. If it was I wouldnt be posting on this board, I would own a casino in Vegas and an island in the carib.

    But trying to fade the public as much as I can has kept me gambling for over 15 years -- I know close to 100 of people over the course of those 15 years that have gotton buried and have quit

    Betting against the public will keep you at 55 % throught the entire year

    Like ronnie said - books took a bath tonight with Louisville and both totals in the college games

    BUT .... books cleaned up in the NBA with Phoenix not covering ( 80% on phoenix !!!!) , cleve not covering, and portland not covering



    Speaking of books -- lets not forget .. they also make a ton of money on gimmick bets such as parlays, robins and teasers

    The same guys that had Noth Carolina tonight might have also had them in a parlay with Phoenix.


    Fading the public is not fullproof !!!!! But if it gives me an edge, I will take it. In 15 yrs of gambling , I have had many more winning years than losing years and I think my betting "style" is an attrubute to that

    Lets not forget if the public didnt win EVER - there would be no one left to gamble

    It has its streaks like everything else

    "Sharps" or "faders" kicked ass in the confrence tourneys

    The "public or"squares" kicked ass the first 2 days of the tourney

    it switched again and the 'sharps" kicked ass last weekend in the round of 32 games

    then a switch again the last 3 nights where the "squares" are kicking ass


    Now .... if fading the public gets you at least 55 % winners over the long haul --- wouldnt you rather be on that side??



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    Last edited by GOLDENGREEK; 03-30-2008, 01:56 AM.

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    • #32
      Originally posted by Chado1
      The line moves based on a specific book getting a lot of action on one side (for various reasons as you already stated)...they want to attract action on the other side to even out their amount of wagers to try to get as close to 50/50 to grab all the vig regardless of who covers....they dont "know" anything...the game is determined on the playing field....
      all 7 books posted lowered the line

      Chado it wasnt then trying to even out their wagers

      close to 70% of the wagers were on Port - 6

      they dropped the line to 5 and then 4 1/2

      7 books .. not one

      and the opposite way

      if they wanted to even out the action they wold have raised the line to port - 7 not drop it


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      • #33
        Originally posted by Chado1
        The line moves based on a specific book getting a lot of action on one side (for various reasons as you already stated)...they want to attract action on the other side to even out their amount of wagers to try to get as close to 50/50 to grab all the vig regardless of who covers....they dont "know" anything...the game is determined on the playing field....

        Chado -- you sceam every day about the NBA being fixed -- now you are saying the game is determined on the playing field?


        Dont for a second think that vegas dosent set certain lines up to attract a large side of action. Thee are plenty of games where they are looking / hoping for 70 % plus of action to one side

        those games that "look to easy" - "to good to be true" -- they usally ae and vegas throws that bait ot there and waits to feel a tug on the line when the catch that HUGE fish

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        • #34
          Originally posted by GOLDENGREEK
          all 7 books posted lowered the line

          Chado it wasnt then trying to even out their wagers

          close to 70% of the wagers were on Port - 6

          they dropped the line to 5 and then 4 1/2

          7 books .. not one

          and the opposite way

          if they wanted to even out the action they wold have raised the line to port - 7 not drop it


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          Honestly man this shit just racks my brain...basically the point I am saying is that I would much rather lose a wager knowing that I have watched the two teams involved all year and made my best bet on which way I thought the game would go based on my capping/research...if it doesnt work out so be it but at least I can sleep well knowing that I made a personal decision as opposed to one that someone who may not even know anything about sports or the teams or the players involved can do by fading and siding with the books or whatever....that shit would drive me crazy when it loses knowing I made a bet based just on that...especially if it was going against what I personally liked...even regardless of losing....JMHO....GL tomorrow bro!!!
          Last edited by Chado1; 03-30-2008, 02:03 AM.
          SOBER SINCE MARCH 28TH OF 2007!!!

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          • #35
            I don't know guys back in the day I booked for several years---I had guys that faded---played faves only--backed off jacked off---played every game on the board--now that I do this as a "player" only I make the same mistakes or I make the same "win" plays they used too--You can not tell me before they play the freaking game that a line dictates the outcome--YES I do believe a line can lead you in the right direction but FK these two teams still have to play---YEP many times I look at the line and say this line is too low---this line is too high---need to bang that fkr---man I don't know--been humbled many times with these thoughts...Use it as a guide--Greek feels it is 55 percent which is not bad by gambling standards-which is true--you need to be 53% to be winning cash if everything is say 50 dollar bets.....

            To me now these days gambling is a hobby--I love to do it--I love to be on the right side---but I have learned in 17 years that ain't going to happen all the time..if you think you are going to get rich--get out now before you go broke!

            Some days---weeks you could clean up and some days weeks you could get buried--to me it is good timing--what I am saying--how many teams cover every game--NONE--I remember back in the day SD Chargers covered 13 straight weeks--anyone remember---this was in my book days---do you think I took these MFERS being a book--HELL NO! had to be 1994--1997--don't remember--but I lost a bunch of cash expecting Vegas to win---yeah they won all right because all the dummies like me expected SD not to cover...

            Bottom line--we can debate this all night--it is now 3:00 A.M. just stopped by because I never sleep anyway and this thread got my interest---no matter how much we try to slice it---dice it--we will never figure this fk thing out--we can only hope we are on the right side 60 percent of the time---anything higher than that---IMO it just doesn't happen--if you bet over one year--and you tell me you are higher than that saying you bet 1000 bets---and you won 60 percent--I take my hat off to you---think abt it 1000 bets you win 600 lose 400---over one course of a year... anyhow leave with this---this is fun for me---as at times is it aggravating and frustrating I like to do this--I have been humbled many times and at times have really thought I know what I am doing now--or have figured this thing out!!! yeah right!! everyday is a new day and we all have to keep gambling in perspective as any given day you could win---or lose--sorry for the long sermon! Good night gents!
            Last edited by bryce; 03-30-2008, 03:38 AM.

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            • #36
              Originally posted by GOLDENGREEK
              There Are Instances Where The Line Movement ( Especially Reverse Line Movement Helps


              Yesterday Atlanta Was Favored Over The Bulls By 5 1/2


              70 % On Atlanta And The Line Didnt Budge All Day ( Should Have Gone Up A Bit)

              Last Second , 10 - 20 Min Before Game Time Line Goes Down TO 4 1/2

              Atlanta wins by 3


              Same thing happened today

              Portland was favored by 6 over Charllotte .... 70 % on portland and no line move all day

              Then .. BOOM line drops to 5 and 4 1/2 in some places - CHARLLOTE WINS S/U BY 8 points

              Those were the only two games where it happened the last 2 days

              It is a VERY big indicator and works quite a bit


              YOU MUST PAY ATTENTION TO LINE MOVES !!! ESPECIALLY THE REVERSE LINE MOVES


              In the colleges today - both favs .. the lines went up -- like they should have with the $$ going on there -- no suprise -- no tell tale sign of anything



              .

              The net has fucked up gambling.. IMO
              Back in the old days you would get the BULLS +8... Why give a sharp +8 when he will take it at +4 or 4.5...

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              • #37
                Good Read, Thanks Ham!

                TOUCHDOWN FAT BOY!

                I was Born my Pappy's Son,
                When I hit the ground, I was on the Run!
                Jon E. Checkers

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                • #38
                  The second half is where you think like a coach ...I think KU covers the 5.................square I dont think so...the shorts go up the butt here
                  2013-2014.... NCAA 7-6

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                  • #39
                    Ham - from what I saw and heard the 2 games were split down the middle - no squares or sharps today

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