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DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
SHARPS TRYING TO BOB AND WEAVE DURING TRICKY NCAA DANCE
It's been a tough NCAA tournament for many Nevada sharps.
They love underdogs as a general rule. The opening day went so strongly to the favorites that many started out in the hole.
They love Unders as a general rule when betting totals. Last Sunday was so strong to the Over that anybody who had dug their way out of a hole found themselves back in it.
They loved Washington State plus the points against North Carolina Thursday Night. Many were waiting until game day for the public to pound the favored Tar Heels. The public did pound the Heels, pushing the line up higher. Sharps very aggressively jumped on Washington State only to see the Pac 10 entrant play one if its worst games of the year. Many sharps were very high on the Pac 10 coming into the tournament. Some expected Washington State to pull off an upset. The 68-47 rout, which wasn't even as close as that makes it sound, was humbling to be sure.
Now, it hasn't been all bad for the sharps. Most liked Louisville to dominate Tennessee. Some guys did mistakenly buy back some Tennessee on game day when the public was all over Louisville (you can probably figure out the public is having a nice tournament so far!). There was a big early move on Western Kentucky at +13.5 that brought the line down to +12.5. One noted sharp came in big very late on UCLA...and regretted that once the final score was in. But, I'd have to say that most guys won that one.
Is there a lesson from the fact that sharps are struggling a bit and the public is winning? It seems like I've been asking that question a lot in recent seasons. There was a stretch in the NFL this year where that happened...and that matched the wild season of a few years ago where favorites just kept covering all season. Many big name college hoops programs keep covering spreads this year. Has the public suddenly become smarter than professional wagerers?
No!
I think the following factors are in play. You might want to take these into account as you handicap the Elite Eight games this weekend:
Many Las Vegas and Reno sharps seem to have stopped handicapping games altogether. They're now just looking for spots to go against the public with decent-quality underdogs. That worked wonderfully in the past, and made them all rich. The world has changed now, and it's not working as well as it did. Lines have come down a bit from the old days in these games, taking away much of the value. North Carolina was an 8-point favorite over Washington State the other night. Maybe, a decade ago, a top seed with a big name would have been a 10-11 point favorite. Oddsmakers would have treated NC/Washington State the way they did actually treat Western Kentucky/UCLA. Note that the dog was the right side there.
The problem with eschewing handicapping to just bet against the public is that you lose sight of the strengths and weaknesses of teams. Washington State had poor results against UCLA and Stanford this year. That seemed alright in general because the Pac 10 looked like the best conference in the nation. When UCLA almost lost to Texas A&M, and Stanford almost lost to Marquette...the fact that Washington State couldn't play with them because a bigger deal. Sharps didn't react. They could have at least toned down their enthusiasm for Washington State given those results. Didn't happen.
We're seeing a tendency in some sports for elite teams to expand their edges over everyone else. In the past, competitive balance helped keep things in check. The public was imagining edges for the great teams that really weren't there. In both college and pro football, and lately college and pro basketball...the edges are there! The lines have come down...the sharps are in the habit of taking all the underdogs...but the superior teams really are dominant.
New England killed people until the lines got up to 20 points per game just at the point their defense was wearing down. You could make similar cases for many of the other NFL powers this year in the first half of the season. It took two months for the lines to catch up. North Carolina and Kansas have been covering spreads all year. The NBA powers were great right after the All-Star break in terms of ATS results because they couldn't afford to take any nights off.
When North Carolina clicks, they win by big margins. Sharps underestimated that "click" potential, as they've been doing with far too many top teams in all the sports in recent memory.
Sharps have been slow to react because of their own overconfidence. Look, it takes a certain amount of swagger and confidence to be a sports gambler in the first place. You have to think you're smarter than everyone else or you wouldn't be betting. If you have several seasons where you win big, the confidence grows even bigger! You're on top of the world, and start to believe you can do no wrong.
I'm not sure how many big time sports gamblers you've met in your life. I've met quite a few obviously. When I'm involved in the oddsmaking field, that's who I'm going head-to-head with (meaning I've got a lot of confidence and a bit of a swagger myself!). You wouldn't believe the stuff that comes out of these guys mouths. This extreme self-confidence is imbedded in them after success. It takes some forever to change gears when the world changes.
I know of guys who have lost significant portions of their betting bankrolls just in the last year and a half alone, because they were sure they couldn't possibly keep losing. Sharps have a lot of edges over squares in the long run. Some sharps turn into squares when it comes to chasing losses during down times unfortunately.
I'm always encouraging you to think like a sharp rather than like a square. That's still great advice, particularly when you consider the full scope of edges that sharps have (experience, the ability to shop for the best line, knowing how to position themselves to hit middles), and the full scope of problems that squares suffer from (ignoring line value, playing way too many games, betting with emotions rather than facts). You do need to be aware though that sharps will have some bad stretches, particularly if they're being stubborn about their handicapping approach. See if you can avoid THAT mistake this weekend.
Handicap the Elite Eight games the way a head coach would. Look at the strengths and weaknesses of the teams on the floor. Do the Las Vegas pointspreads capture those strengths and weaknesses? Has the public driven a line to the wrong place? Has the public actually driven the line to the right place?
Do your best to make your own number on the games. The Nevada sharps do that on all propositions. Laziness has taken away their ability to do it as accurately as they should. See if you can outperform the squares and the sharps in this area!
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
SHARPS TRYING TO BOB AND WEAVE DURING TRICKY NCAA DANCE
It's been a tough NCAA tournament for many Nevada sharps.
They love underdogs as a general rule. The opening day went so strongly to the favorites that many started out in the hole.
They love Unders as a general rule when betting totals. Last Sunday was so strong to the Over that anybody who had dug their way out of a hole found themselves back in it.
They loved Washington State plus the points against North Carolina Thursday Night. Many were waiting until game day for the public to pound the favored Tar Heels. The public did pound the Heels, pushing the line up higher. Sharps very aggressively jumped on Washington State only to see the Pac 10 entrant play one if its worst games of the year. Many sharps were very high on the Pac 10 coming into the tournament. Some expected Washington State to pull off an upset. The 68-47 rout, which wasn't even as close as that makes it sound, was humbling to be sure.
Now, it hasn't been all bad for the sharps. Most liked Louisville to dominate Tennessee. Some guys did mistakenly buy back some Tennessee on game day when the public was all over Louisville (you can probably figure out the public is having a nice tournament so far!). There was a big early move on Western Kentucky at +13.5 that brought the line down to +12.5. One noted sharp came in big very late on UCLA...and regretted that once the final score was in. But, I'd have to say that most guys won that one.
Is there a lesson from the fact that sharps are struggling a bit and the public is winning? It seems like I've been asking that question a lot in recent seasons. There was a stretch in the NFL this year where that happened...and that matched the wild season of a few years ago where favorites just kept covering all season. Many big name college hoops programs keep covering spreads this year. Has the public suddenly become smarter than professional wagerers?
No!
I think the following factors are in play. You might want to take these into account as you handicap the Elite Eight games this weekend:
Many Las Vegas and Reno sharps seem to have stopped handicapping games altogether. They're now just looking for spots to go against the public with decent-quality underdogs. That worked wonderfully in the past, and made them all rich. The world has changed now, and it's not working as well as it did. Lines have come down a bit from the old days in these games, taking away much of the value. North Carolina was an 8-point favorite over Washington State the other night. Maybe, a decade ago, a top seed with a big name would have been a 10-11 point favorite. Oddsmakers would have treated NC/Washington State the way they did actually treat Western Kentucky/UCLA. Note that the dog was the right side there.
The problem with eschewing handicapping to just bet against the public is that you lose sight of the strengths and weaknesses of teams. Washington State had poor results against UCLA and Stanford this year. That seemed alright in general because the Pac 10 looked like the best conference in the nation. When UCLA almost lost to Texas A&M, and Stanford almost lost to Marquette...the fact that Washington State couldn't play with them because a bigger deal. Sharps didn't react. They could have at least toned down their enthusiasm for Washington State given those results. Didn't happen.
We're seeing a tendency in some sports for elite teams to expand their edges over everyone else. In the past, competitive balance helped keep things in check. The public was imagining edges for the great teams that really weren't there. In both college and pro football, and lately college and pro basketball...the edges are there! The lines have come down...the sharps are in the habit of taking all the underdogs...but the superior teams really are dominant.
New England killed people until the lines got up to 20 points per game just at the point their defense was wearing down. You could make similar cases for many of the other NFL powers this year in the first half of the season. It took two months for the lines to catch up. North Carolina and Kansas have been covering spreads all year. The NBA powers were great right after the All-Star break in terms of ATS results because they couldn't afford to take any nights off.
When North Carolina clicks, they win by big margins. Sharps underestimated that "click" potential, as they've been doing with far too many top teams in all the sports in recent memory.
Sharps have been slow to react because of their own overconfidence. Look, it takes a certain amount of swagger and confidence to be a sports gambler in the first place. You have to think you're smarter than everyone else or you wouldn't be betting. If you have several seasons where you win big, the confidence grows even bigger! You're on top of the world, and start to believe you can do no wrong.
I'm not sure how many big time sports gamblers you've met in your life. I've met quite a few obviously. When I'm involved in the oddsmaking field, that's who I'm going head-to-head with (meaning I've got a lot of confidence and a bit of a swagger myself!). You wouldn't believe the stuff that comes out of these guys mouths. This extreme self-confidence is imbedded in them after success. It takes some forever to change gears when the world changes.
I know of guys who have lost significant portions of their betting bankrolls just in the last year and a half alone, because they were sure they couldn't possibly keep losing. Sharps have a lot of edges over squares in the long run. Some sharps turn into squares when it comes to chasing losses during down times unfortunately.
I'm always encouraging you to think like a sharp rather than like a square. That's still great advice, particularly when you consider the full scope of edges that sharps have (experience, the ability to shop for the best line, knowing how to position themselves to hit middles), and the full scope of problems that squares suffer from (ignoring line value, playing way too many games, betting with emotions rather than facts). You do need to be aware though that sharps will have some bad stretches, particularly if they're being stubborn about their handicapping approach. See if you can avoid THAT mistake this weekend.
Handicap the Elite Eight games the way a head coach would. Look at the strengths and weaknesses of the teams on the floor. Do the Las Vegas pointspreads capture those strengths and weaknesses? Has the public driven a line to the wrong place? Has the public actually driven the line to the right place?
Do your best to make your own number on the games. The Nevada sharps do that on all propositions. Laziness has taken away their ability to do it as accurately as they should. See if you can outperform the squares and the sharps in this area!
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