Good read for those who go the other way all the time it doesnt work anymore people

[Chado1]

Obviously in this case that "trend" worked, but it's not like that effected the game play.

This is all that needs to be said right here....this post in itself is what I have been saying about this crap for years with that bullshit!!!



A trend worked out and thats all...I would much rather have my money on a side based on what I have personally watched from that team all season then fucking around and hoping a "trend" of public percentages and line movements continue....

[MtrCtyPimp]

This is all that needs to be said right here....this post in itself is what I have been saying about this crap for years with that bullshit!!!



A trend worked out and thats all...I would much rather have my money on a side based on what I have personally watched from that team all season then fucking around and hoping a "trend" of public percentages and line movements continue....

The trend doesnt affect the outcome of the game....it just gives you an idea of the who the book needs and you go from there, thats all....greek is saying he wants to be with the books

PEACE

[Chado1]

Books are taking a bath with the rash of favs and overs covering...short term this is good news for the players but in the long run Id still rather be on the side of the books.

Only thing that sucks is my bets are -110 and theirs are +110....huge difference

PEACE

No offense or anything Ronnie but what do you mean "Id still rather be on the side of the books" ???

[Chado1]

No offense or anything Ronnie but what do you mean "Id still rather be on the side of the books" ???

I know the answer to this question before I asked it...you mean the opposite of the public percentages from those sites you check out right?

[ULikeApples]

The trend doesnt affect the outcome of the game....it just gives you an idea of the who the book needs and you go from there, thats all....greek is saying he wants to be with the books

PEACE

Obviously the books make money in the long run, but that's not necessarily b/c of having action on one side and it losing. As you said, they get +110. Sure, there are games with lopsided action that they win and lose. But even if those even out, they still get that +110 for all the game where it doesn't really matter to them who wins.

I guess I'm just too logical/numbers oriented to not consider stats more than a trend. I really hate the trends for teams that stretch back years and involve other teams. Not in terms of where the money is, but something like "Road favorites of 3-5 points in the A10 with a total between 130-140 are 35-25 the past 3 years." Obviously if you were playing all those games you'd be up, but that has absolutely NOTHING to do with the two teams that are about to play each other. I know that's a somewhat different topic than the money movement part, but falls under the same thought process to me.

[Chado1]

Obviously the books make money in the long run, but that's not necessarily b/c of having action on one side and it losing. As you said, they get +110. Sure, there are games with lopsided action that they win and lose. But even if those even out, they still get that +110 for all the game where it doesn't really matter to them who wins.

I guess I'm just too logical/numbers oriented to not consider stats more than a trend. I really hate the trends for teams that stretch back years and involve other teams. Not in terms of where the money is, but something like "Road favorites of 3-5 points in the A10 with a total between 130-140 are 35-25 the past 3 years." Obviously if you were playing all those games you'd be up, but that has absolutely NOTHING to do with the two teams that are about to play each other. I know that's a somewhat different topic than the money movement part, but falls under the same thought process to me.

LMAO did I just type this post or was it actually you??

You took the words right out of my mouth...I have been saying for years how I that stuff makes me laugh so much...

like the "Bengals are 135-115-8 on Monday games when their was a lunar eclipse on the previous night when they were coming of a SU win but not ATS and their OLB was injured over the last 35 years...blah blah blah



The book gets +110 on every wager and sure the public percentages may be against their favor or whatever here and there but in the long run the +110 is ALL THAT MATTERS...they will make their money off that alone....fuck everything else!!!

[MtrCtyPimp]

I know the answer to this question before I asked it...you mean the opposite of the public percentages from those sites you check out right?

Not just %s......I mean I want to be on the same side as the books if at all possible.

Books needed Louisville tonight and they got their asses kicked but the books needed the Pistons also and they covered.

Now Im no genius when it comes to this shit but if I can stay over 52% and manage my money properly I wont get buried in this fucken gambling game and thats saying alot as far as I am concerned.

I know I am not in this to make a living but I also know that I do not get buried......its a proven fact that most people who gamble end up getting buried is 1 because they get in a hole at some point and 2 try to be superman and get out of the hole and thats when they get buried.....I havent made a penny since New Years gambling but on the flip I havent lost money either.....just keep the money management to an extent and hover between 50-55% and you will be in good shape and its a known fact that players lose and if you are with the books historically speaking blind faders will hit at 52%.

Sorry to babble but people who just pick games because they have a feeling thats who will win will be very streaky and ultimately lose......so either have a plan or just be content on gambling recreationally and winning some and losing some but in the end being in the hole

PEACE

[MtrCtyPimp]

Its not that cut and dry....favs/dogs arent 50/50 and overs/unders arent 50/50......its been proven over time that dogs and unders hit more and people dont like betting dogs and unders.....this isnt an opinion....these are the facts

PEACE

[GOLDENGREEK]

Those are great examples of that, but I'm sure some exist the other way. It's not like the oddsmakers know what's going to happen in a game. Again, assuming all is on the up and up. They have their power ratings they use, tweak a little here in there for perceptions and fav teams (i.e. Cowboys, Patriots) and then they throw the line out there. The line not moving didn't effect anything that happened on the court. Obviously in this case that "trend" worked, but it's not like that effected the game play.

Those were the only two games where it happened the last 2 days and both covered. Now im not neccessarily talking about all reverse line moves , but these last second moves are gold if you are lucky enough to see them and have time to place the bet b4 the game goes off

[GOLDENGREEK]

greek-

how much do you trust the online sites that have the percentages? like carib, sportsbook, sportsinsites, etc.

some people say they aren't right, some do. what do you go by?

I trust SI -- and do we really have a choice? Not much else. I'm lucky enough to have 2 locals ( books ) who are friends of mine and tell me what they need

[GOLDENGREEK]

This is all that needs to be said right here....this post in itself is what I have been saying about this crap for years with that bullshit!!!



A trend worked out and thats all...I would much rather have my money on a side based on what I have personally watched from that team all season then fucking around and hoping a "trend" of public percentages and line movements continue....

Its not a trend Chado. They know something to move the lines the opposite direction of the when the money is going. Whether it be an injury, team turmoil, a certain ref in a game .. etc.

Trust me -- they know !!!!

Why not leave the line the same then? Why drop the line at the last minute?

[GOLDENGREEK]

LMAO did I just type this post or was it actually you??

You took the words right out of my mouth...I have been saying for years how I that stuff makes me laugh so much...

like the "Bengals are 135-115-8 on Monday games when their was a lunar eclipse on the previous night when they were coming of a SU win but not ATS and their OLB was injured over the last 35 years...blah blah blah



The book gets +110 on every wager and sure the public percentages may be against their favor or whatever here and there but in the long run the +110 is ALL THAT MATTERS...they will make their money off that alone....fuck everything else!!!

Chado , those trends are something completely diffrent of what we are talking about

[Chado1]

people who just pick games because they have a feeling thats who will win will be very streaky and ultimately lose......so either have a plan or just be content on gambling recreationally and winning some and losing some but in the end being in the hole

I know it is not a get rich quick scheme as most people have to find out the hard way at one point or another and I mean everyone. I just do it reacreationally and if I win a few or lose a few thast fine. I just enjoy watching sports and have my whole life and throwing down for some action here and there ads to the excitement. But as far as saying that people like myself who typically dont pay attention to the trends/line movements/public percentages but will normally make bets based on having watched a ton of games invloving the teams we are wagering on and using a sense of personal knowledge of a league/team/sport knowing certain weaknesses/strengths in certain matchups will eventually lose our ass after only getting a little streaky isnt true IMO. THE EXACT SAME can be said for those who are fade cappers. The may get streaky and be with the books here and there but with vig they arent really as its +110 for them. They can also lose their ass unless money managent is used. There is no way to say this for either side otherwise yourself and Greek and whoever else uses these methods would be chilling in the Bahamas on Chucks boat.. IT GOES BOTH WAYS. All in all money mangement is they key to the game and overtakes all of the above. You must recognize that you are not gonna get rich (in the long run) thus why I work or make money through other means and only use it as a recreational hobby. Thats just my 2 cents....

[Chado1]

Chado , those trends are something completely diffrent of what we are talking about

I know...realized that after I posted it...but never agreed with trends much either....

[Chado1]

Its not a trend Chado. They know something to move the lines the opposite direction of the when the money is going. Whether it be an injury, team turmoil, a certain ref in a game .. etc.

Trust me -- they know !!!!

Why not leave the line the same then? Why drop the line at the last minute?

The line moves based on a specific book getting a lot of action on one side (for various reasons as you already stated)...they want to attract action on the other side to even out their amount of wagers to try to get as close to 50/50 to grab all the vig regardless of who covers....they dont "know" anything...the game is determined on the playing field....