American Idol

[dave T]

Same here Frank - what a joke that whole bunch of crap was

I would feel the same way if Sanjaya had won, or even come close; but he finished number 6 if I recall because he couldn't sing good enough to advance no matter the hype.

dt

[dave T]

recent news release.......At least one of the female contestants has taken cheap, Imus shots at Syesha Mercado, calling her hair "nappy," among other insults -- behind her back. Nice.

And the guys were ganging up against 17-year-old David Archuleta, making snarky remarks, again, behind his back. But who can blame them? Our sources say record execs at 19 Entertainment have already been in touch with top record publishers in Hollywood, and the word has already been sent out to songwriters to write this kid some tunes.

The one thing that worries me a little about this prop is the possibility that he would be pressured to NOT win. Whatever deal AI offers, it could be overmatched by another producer before the contest is over.

In the case of Daughtry, it benefitted him to not win last year; although I don't think it was intentional. But the gap between Archuleta this year and the rest of the field, not just in vocals but in marketability, could for the first time (presumably the first time) entice other producers to buy him out at a price that far exceeds AI's offer. Which means I lose my bet.

Having said that, I'm not sure he could lose this thing even if he tried...it would become pretty obvious he was throwing it.

dt

[ULikeApples]

What are the odds for Michael Johns? Archuleta is the best package, but I don't know if he'll be the last male standing or not. If Johns is 4-1 or better, I think there is good value there too.

[Art Vandelay]

Good call - If I can find it, I will wager on it. Not only is he a great singer but he definitely has enough "likeability" to beat the rest of the guys if not win the whole thing.

[dave T]

What are the odds for Michael Johns? Archuleta is the best package, but I don't know if he'll be the last male standing or not. If Johns is 4-1 or better, I think there is good value there too.

Micheal Johns is the 29-year old Australian I referrenced earlier. He's second best in my opinion and is the only real threat, if there is one, to the Kid. Odds wise, he is also second at +465 (Olympic). Everyone else is higher except Achuleta -165.

EDIT: I wonder if the Winner can "opt out" of AI's contract??? Or are they bound by it? If they can opt out for another producer, Archuleta's a LOCK!!!! Oops, er, he should win...

dt

[dave T]

These are the odds TO WIN (not the highest male finish) at Pinnacle:

301 Michael Johns +813
302 David Archuleta -130
303 Carly Smithson +453
304 Asia'h Epperson +2069
305 Syesha Mercado +3112
306 Kady Malloy +2606
307 Kristy Lee Cook +7500
308 David Hernandez +3153
310 Ramiele Malubay +1278
311 Brooke White +2685
312 Danny Norriega +10000
313 Jason Castro +1803
314 Amanda Overmyer +10000
315 Luke Menard +10000
317 David Cook +10000
324 Chikezie Eze +15000

Also at Pinnacle:
Achuleta to win: -124
Field: +108

NOTE: I find it hard to believe Chikezie is +15000. He had a strong night last Tuesday and if he comes on strong, could go to the final two. Reminds me of last year when Sparks went from being favored to "get eliminated" and then came on strong to win the whole thing...

dt

[BettorsChat]

Well-connected record industry sources tell TMZ the major publishers (including Sony and Warner) have already set their sights on David Archuleta and David Hernandez. The record publishers have already told their songwriters to write songs specifically for David-squared, whether they win or not.

Sources say this is the earliest publishers have even committed to the contestants

[dave T]

Thanx for the info. Do you know, or does anyone know, if the Idol winner is allowed to opt out of the Idol contract offer?

I'm not so sure Archuleta, or rather this advisers, would want the Idol contract. And even if he could choose to opt out, it still might be beneficial to "not win" so as to lose the so-called stigma. That makes Archeuleta a bad bet.

dt

[ULikeApples]

Thanx for the info. Do you know, or does anyone know, if the Idol winner is allowed to opt out of the Idol contract offer?

I'm not so sure Archuleta, or rather this advisers, would want the Idol contract. And even if he could choose to opt out, it still might be beneficial to "not win" so as to lose the so-called stigma. That makes Archeuleta a bad bet.

dt

No, the winner must sign with the Idol's company.

[BettorsChat]

No, the winner must sign with the Idol's company.

Yes, I think that's true plus they have to wait a certain amount of time I believe even if they don't get a contract before they can do anything else. At least that's what i've read in the past.

[dakingisdead]

#308 Hernandez is a good value play. He is incredible. But if the whole gay stripping and gay bartending thing cathces up with him, he's toast. Look at Danny Noriega last night.

[BigWeiner]

David Cook will win

[BettorsChat]

I thought David Archuleta sucked tonight.

[TheAngle]

i may consider sleeping with brooke white

[birdog]

Olympic has a $200 max, but I'm not sure if that applies to risk or win. Archuleta is the only contestant, male or female, to be risking more than winning.

Remember: It's not up to Fox or AI to put Archie through, it's up to the voters. That's why I think he's a virtual lock, because he's got the whole package along with best vocals. That's also why I posted last year that I didn't think Doolittle would win it. She was -115 and the odds on favorite based on her vocals, but she didn't have to whole package. The fact that Archie is -165 with eight guys remaining says it all.

You might be able to wait until the final twelve and take a chance on better odds to "win it all", but I doubt the odds will be much better. By then he will have established himself as virtually unbeatable and the oddsmakers and gamblers will have a high price on the board.

As a side note, you can also get a prop that a "guy" will "win it all" for -200. This would cover you in the event that the 29-year old Australian guy wins it, which would be the next best choice imo, but I just don't see it. It's all about voting, and Archuleta will get more votes, especially from teenie bopper girls who vote fifty times a week.

gl,
dave

But wasnt that Dolittle chic odds like this last year then Jordan Sparks beat her out