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Trying to seperate myself from a fan to a capper, i have to say right now that my lean is the NYG +13. I do LOVE the Over here though.
People love to say, don't assume what one team did this week will happen again next and i believe that. Looking at the whole picture and the season as a whole, New England has Won 11 of 18 games by 17 or more points and 10 of 18 games were Won by 21+. Whether you do it early or late, it shows you can do it. I doubt you will find any other team in History that won 10 games in one season by 21+ points. I bet nobody is even close ... but i'm not really sure about that.
The books were getting absolutely smoked with the Patriots the 1st 8 weeks. I know all the locals were in tears and Las Vegas couldn't seem to make the line big enough. Everyone said it would all even out in the end and after Vegas keeps adjusting the lines. Well, it did. People (Joe Public), are still scared to death to go against this offense in a wager and Vegas has put the line at a perfect spot every week. It is usually near or around -14, just like this week. Starting back in week 11 and the Eagles, the Patriots are still (8-0) with an average margin of Victory being 10.1 ppg. Not bad, but not covering either. In the end, Vegas and all locals grabbed all their money back.
I like NY + the points for 5 Initial reasons ...
1) The Patriots rushing game
Everyone cried foul early in the season and said they were running up the score when they threw the ball 75%-80% of the time, even while ahead. I heard how not having a rushing game was going to kill them in the end too. The fact is, they had more 100 yard rushing games this year than they did the previous 2 years combined. They ran Sammy Morris early and they are running a rested Maroney late. The difference right now is that they are more of a 50/50 run, pass team. They are not throwing on every down and they are running very well with Maroney behind that line. You are probably wondering why i use this as a reason to like N.Y. with everything said right? Well N.E. is still scoring 31+ most weeks but it is taking alot more time to score the TD's and the clock is being eaten at a much faster pace. When they were jacking up 40-50 points, they were throwing on almost every down no matter what the score was. Now, in this win or go home scenario, they seem to enjoy passing early for the lead and running late to protect it. They have not been using the no huddle and Brady has been throwing short to avoid the double covered Moss.
2) Pass Rush
A pass rush will keep Brady from sitting back there and picking them apart. The Giants have a great pass rush. The Patriots have given up the least amount of sacks by a team since the Mid 70's but this will be another very tough test.
3) The Giants Bruising running game
Jacob's and Bradshaw are like two steam rollers and they are just carrying people right now. The Patriots have been up and down against the run this season. Even if they are up in this one, the two headed monster will be tough to shut down.
4) Eli Manning
Most expected Eli to implode weeks ago. He has played GREAT with ZERO picks in 3 playoff games. Is he due for a implosion? Maybe, but he has given me no reason to believe it will happen.
5) The Giants have seen it before
New England has said they love playing teams they have yet to face because they are never sure how to cover it. The Giants have seen it and we'll see if they know what to do with it next time. The Giants have been a great road team and they have already paid back 2 teams in the last 2 weeks that beat them earlier in the season.
The intangible here for me is the weather. It is expected to be perfect conditions. New England used similiar conditions early in the season to bury teams on a dry field and in perfect passing conditions. I'm afraid they go "Old School" here and light it up again. Brady has promised some big plays in the passing game so we'll see. This does scare me a bit as a NY backer + the points
Those are my honest and hopefully unbiased thoughts on the game as a capper. As a fan, i will be screaming my fucken ass off at game time and hoping for a Patriots beatdown of the G-MEN! My money though, will most likely be on the Giants. If N.E. wins by 20 and i lose my wager, it won't lessen my happiness one bit ... I can promise you that!
New England 35
New York 27
Good Luck!
People love to say, don't assume what one team did this week will happen again next and i believe that. Looking at the whole picture and the season as a whole, New England has Won 11 of 18 games by 17 or more points and 10 of 18 games were Won by 21+. Whether you do it early or late, it shows you can do it. I doubt you will find any other team in History that won 10 games in one season by 21+ points. I bet nobody is even close ... but i'm not really sure about that.
The books were getting absolutely smoked with the Patriots the 1st 8 weeks. I know all the locals were in tears and Las Vegas couldn't seem to make the line big enough. Everyone said it would all even out in the end and after Vegas keeps adjusting the lines. Well, it did. People (Joe Public), are still scared to death to go against this offense in a wager and Vegas has put the line at a perfect spot every week. It is usually near or around -14, just like this week. Starting back in week 11 and the Eagles, the Patriots are still (8-0) with an average margin of Victory being 10.1 ppg. Not bad, but not covering either. In the end, Vegas and all locals grabbed all their money back.
I like NY + the points for 5 Initial reasons ...
1) The Patriots rushing game
Everyone cried foul early in the season and said they were running up the score when they threw the ball 75%-80% of the time, even while ahead. I heard how not having a rushing game was going to kill them in the end too. The fact is, they had more 100 yard rushing games this year than they did the previous 2 years combined. They ran Sammy Morris early and they are running a rested Maroney late. The difference right now is that they are more of a 50/50 run, pass team. They are not throwing on every down and they are running very well with Maroney behind that line. You are probably wondering why i use this as a reason to like N.Y. with everything said right? Well N.E. is still scoring 31+ most weeks but it is taking alot more time to score the TD's and the clock is being eaten at a much faster pace. When they were jacking up 40-50 points, they were throwing on almost every down no matter what the score was. Now, in this win or go home scenario, they seem to enjoy passing early for the lead and running late to protect it. They have not been using the no huddle and Brady has been throwing short to avoid the double covered Moss.
2) Pass Rush
A pass rush will keep Brady from sitting back there and picking them apart. The Giants have a great pass rush. The Patriots have given up the least amount of sacks by a team since the Mid 70's but this will be another very tough test.
3) The Giants Bruising running game
Jacob's and Bradshaw are like two steam rollers and they are just carrying people right now. The Patriots have been up and down against the run this season. Even if they are up in this one, the two headed monster will be tough to shut down.
4) Eli Manning
Most expected Eli to implode weeks ago. He has played GREAT with ZERO picks in 3 playoff games. Is he due for a implosion? Maybe, but he has given me no reason to believe it will happen.
5) The Giants have seen it before
New England has said they love playing teams they have yet to face because they are never sure how to cover it. The Giants have seen it and we'll see if they know what to do with it next time. The Giants have been a great road team and they have already paid back 2 teams in the last 2 weeks that beat them earlier in the season.
The intangible here for me is the weather. It is expected to be perfect conditions. New England used similiar conditions early in the season to bury teams on a dry field and in perfect passing conditions. I'm afraid they go "Old School" here and light it up again. Brady has promised some big plays in the passing game so we'll see. This does scare me a bit as a NY backer + the points
Those are my honest and hopefully unbiased thoughts on the game as a capper. As a fan, i will be screaming my fucken ass off at game time and hoping for a Patriots beatdown of the G-MEN! My money though, will most likely be on the Giants. If N.E. wins by 20 and i lose my wager, it won't lessen my happiness one bit ... I can promise you that!
New England 35
New York 27
Good Luck!
PS-MARVIN LOVES SPLIT SALAD !! 
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