Super Bowl******

[poskid]

My site has it 11.5, I was hoping it would get to 10

VERY doubtful

PK

[MtrCtyPimp]

My site has it 11.5, I was hoping it would get to 10

Really? This is setting up to be a remake of LSU/Ohio St

PEACE

[BigWeiner]

VERY doubtful

PK

I agree, it won't get below 10.5

[robby_morini]

This is easy money.....no way it goes back to 14 but if it does I will buy some back and play for the middle at 13 and 14

PEACE

I understand "middling", but I am not sure why someone would give up a portion of their potential winnings on the chance the game ends on a number 1 or 2 points higher than the original bet. I know that 13 and 14 are key numbers in the NFL, but I would think the odds are not with you on a very strong play.

I have done this on half time plays, and I often end up pissed because I gave up a portion of my winnings. When it does work, it is great. I just don't see it happening often.

I am asking this question respectfully.

[MtrCtyPimp]

I understand "middling", but I am not sure why someone would give up a portion of their potential winnings on the chance the game ends on a number 1 or 2 points higher than the original bet. I know that 13 and 14 are key numbers in the NFL, but I would think the odds are not with you on a very strong play.

I have done this on half time plays, and I often end up pissed because I gave up a portion of my winnings. When it does work, it is great. I just don't see it happening often.

I am asking this question respectfully.

I am not the one to ask but from I have heard is syndicates will make a smaller play (50K) in order to drop a line and come back over the top with the real play (300K) at the better line.....now they have 250K in play with a chance to cash all 350K.....this is all in theory as I am not someone who is in the know

PEACE

[robby_morini]

Gotchya MCP. I appreciate the response.

I am sure it has to do with 13 and 14, key numbers in the NFL.

$100 maximum bet on the Pats probably won't move the line, but I like the play

Thanks again

[MtrCtyPimp]

Another thing is the general public usually doesnt like to play a dog....they just dont and so far the Giants are gettin played at nearly a 2-1 clip...that should tell you something

PEACE

[poskid]

I am not the one to ask but from I have heard is syndicates will make a smaller play (50K) in order to drop a line and come back over the top with the real play (300K) at the better line.....now they have 250K in play with a chance to cash all 350K.....this is all in theory as I am not someone who is in the know

PEACE

This would require some serious equity on the better line. Depending entirely on the movement of the line to a reasonable percentage. When you start talking like this we need to take into account some of the more arcane capping abilities like being able to tell the amount of equity of one line vs another in relation to the juice and knowing how susceptible your book is to large swings of betting. I would think that plays like this would come along very infrequently and typically only on large games where the dollar amounts are going to be large enough not to allow the book to realize what is going on.

PK

[molta02]

I am not the one to ask but from I have heard is syndicates will make a smaller play (50K) in order to drop a line and come back over the top with the real play (300K) at the better line.....now they have 250K in play with a chance to cash all 350K.....this is all in theory as I am not someone who is in the know

PEACE

i read this is what the billy walters group used to do.

[MtrCtyPimp]

This would require some serious equity on the better line. Depending entirely on the movement of the line to a reasonable percentage. When you start talking like this we need to take into account some of the more arcane capping abilities like being able to tell the amount of equity of one line vs another in relation to the juice and knowing how susceptible your book is to large swings of betting. I would think that plays like this would come along very infrequently and typically only on large games where the dollar amounts are going to be large enough not to allow the book to realize what is going on.

PK

Yah like I said I am not very wise when it comes to stuff like this....I just pick a side and play it.....but I heard these types of jokers made a killing on that Pitt Jax game when it opened Pitt -1 and closed at Jax -3.....they try and do it everytime there are big games and this one will be no different

Did you see that Washington St/ Oregon game last night? Opened at a 7 and closed at a 10 ? Why would a Sunday night college basketball game have a line swing like this all the while going directly opposite the NFC Championship on TV.....by the way Wash St won by 9

PEACE

[molta02]

Another thing is the general public usually doesnt like to play a dog....they just dont and so far the Giants are gettin played at nearly a 2-1 clip...that should tell you something

PEACE

MCP-

You and I are reading this game the exact same way, especially the part I quoted.

People are going to talk themselves into backing the Giants here, but I think the Pats have 2 weeks to get ready for THE GAME that will define them forever. I think they come out guns blazing and this thing won't even be close.

The Pats know whats at stake, and have the killer instinct, especially at coach and qb, to get it done.

I think they play their most complete game of the season.

[tech fan]

New York And Its Fanbase Will Lower The Line Somewhat.new York $$$$$$$$$$ Will Be Played On The Giants.

[poskid]

This concept isnt too much different than say card counting blackjack. We bet smallish amounts when we have a less than desirable expected return waiting for the casino to give us a better expectation and then betting large enough amounts to recoup our losses and make a reasonable profit.

Slightly different since we are in effect moving the line ourselves instead of waiting in the weeds. But unlike waiting for our line to come to us (like capping) we make investments into the game (like sitting at the table) to get the right moment to invest our larger amounts.

Fundamentals are important to talk about when discussing stuff like this or you start getting the conspiracy guys coming out of the woodwork. Seen it lots in poker forums.

I'm done jacking the thread...lets get back to discussing football

PK

[MtrCtyPimp]

This concept isnt too much different than say card counting blackjack. We bet smallish amounts when we have a less than desirable expected return waiting for the casino to give us a better expectation and then betting large enough amounts to recoup our losses and make a reasonable profit.

Slightly different since we are in effect moving the line ourselves instead of waiting in the weeds. But unlike waiting for our line to come to us (like capping) we make investments into the game (like sitting at the table) to get the right moment to invest our larger amounts.

Fundamentals are important to talk about when discussing stuff like this or you start getting the conspiracy guys coming out of the woodwork. Seen it lots in poker forums.

PK

You are 100% correct....plus the Wash St and Jax/Pitt game are exceptions to the rule but you tend to see huge swings that get middled at least once a week......obviously I am clueless to these line moves or else I would have waited a day before actually playing.....my thinking was 12' is under the 13 so I took it

PEACE

[tech fan]

This concept isnt too much different than say card counting blackjack. We bet smallish amounts when we have a less than desirable expected return waiting for the casino to give us a better expectation and then betting large enough amounts to recoup our losses and make a reasonable profit.

Slightly different since we are in effect moving the line ourselves instead of waiting in the weeds. But unlike waiting for our line to come to us (like capping) we make investments into the game (like sitting at the table) to get the right moment to invest our larger amounts.

Fundamentals are important to talk about when discussing stuff like this or you start getting the conspiracy guys coming out of the woodwork. Seen it lots in poker forums.

I'm done jacking the thread...lets get back to discussing football

PK

WELCOME TO THE FORUM BUDDY I THINK YOU CAN CONTRIBUTE HERE STICK AROUND.LOOKS LIKE YOU HAVE A GOOD HEAD ON YOUR SHOULDERS.