Super Bowl******

[3ebRocks]

To a certain extent yes.....I can cite examples for you if you would like.....I have a few more angles in this game also besides this also

PEACE

Yea, i would love to see some examples and angles. That would be great. Also, just so I understand correctly. If the public is heavy on team A, you choose team B. That part I get. But what I would like to understand better is the reasoning behind it. You will cite examples which I appreciate. But are you basing the analysis on the probability factor as in X percent of the time that the Y percent of the public picks a team then Z team wins? Or is it more that your theory is that Vegas will not take a beating so the public will lose? Just curious.

[MtrCtyPimp]

Yea, i would love to see some examples and angles. That would be great. Also, just so I understand correctly. If the public is heavy on team A, you choose team B. That part I get. But what I would like to understand better is the reasoning behind it. You will cite examples which I appreciate. But are you basing the analysis on the probability factor as in X percent of the time that the Y percent of the public picks a team then Z team wins? Or is it more that your theory is that Vegas will not take a beating so the public will lose? Just curious.

The Vegas part is more less a conspiracy theory and I will not go that route because thats the easy way out......you can think of it as actually getting value on the Pats now at the 11' 12 # as opposed to the 14 where it opened

Also go ahead and do a search on results from this season after a team missed 5 in a row ATS

Think of the Pats as Tenn v Vandy (last week), Xavier v Dayton (last week), Alabama v Auburn (Saturday) WVA v Cincy (tonight).......

I think in the end though the game will get played on the field and you should just go with the Giants if thats what your instincts are telling you..last think I want to do is convince you play the other side and get you off of the winner......as far as Vegas goes and taking beatings I dont think its as easy as that or else one would never lose if they think they are betting with the casinos....its a % play and some feel more comfy betting with the books

PEACE

[Chado1]

Yea, i would love to see some examples and angles. That would be great. Also, just so I understand correctly. If the public is heavy on team A, you choose team B. That part I get. But what I would like to understand better is the reasoning behind it. You will cite examples which I appreciate. But are you basing the analysis on the probability factor as in X percent of the time that the Y percent of the public picks a team then Z team wins? Or is it more that your theory is that Vegas will not take a beating so the public will lose? Just curious.

What Pimp is saying is that if the public is betting a favorite at a HUGE rate it loses more than it wins in the long run and if the public is betting an "UNDERDOG" at the same HUGE rate it spells twice as much trouble and loses EVEN MORE than it wins in the long run as opposed to a public backed favorite....

[3ebRocks]

Yea, I am only pursuing this with you because I respect your handicapping considerably. I respect everyone up here actually. Some stand out though more than others and you are one of those guys. And I wont do the search because I see what you are saying and part of my reasoning is something you just inadvertently said. And thats that I dont look at it like the college results you mentioned (but I am glad you did because now I know to look for that particular angle) only because this is the big one. Know what I mean? And I just cant handicap it the way I would a Wednesday night college ball game. But that 5 in a row thing is interesting like I said. but this kind of banter is what this forum is supposed to be about and I appreciate your responses. Just that I can think in my mind back to 5 or 6 SBs that exactly what everyone thought would happen, did (SF over SD, Balt ov NYG as examples) and then a bunch where the opposite occurred (Tennessee keeping it close vs STL, Pats squeaking by their last two, as examples). So who knows, I am just going to be a bit of a homer and take my Jints, as I got them at 13.5 and bought it to 14. You think its going under? I was all over the over but to expect a copy of the previous game might just be a mistake. Seems to easy. Plus Giants may go out and really try to sloooooooooooooooow things down, ya know? Also, I heard a stat today that said the Pats played 4 teams twice and in three of those games they scored less and had a smaller margin the second time around. Think I may go back and check that out to see if I heard it right. I was driving and dont know if I was totally paying attention.

[3ebRocks]

What Pimp is saying is that if the public is betting a favorite at a HUGE rate it loses more than it wins in the long run and if the public is betting an "UNDERDOG" at the same HUGE rate it spells twice as much trouble and loses EVEN MORE than it wins in the long run as opposed to a public backed favorite....

Right, I totally get that part of it. I was just wondering why that occurs in your guys opinion? Like was mentioned, is it the conspiracy theory thing that Vegas just wont lose, or is it just a statistical probability. Thats kind of what I was getting at and Pimp gave his opinion. What about yours Chad?

[Chado1]

Right, I totally get that part of it. I was just wondering why that occurs in your guys opinion? Like was mentioned, is it the conspiracy theory thing that Vegas just wont lose, or is it just a statistical probability. Thats kind of what I was getting at and Pimp gave his opinion. What about yours Chad?

I wouldnt say it is a consipracy theory but has been proven in the long run from past occurences more so than not....

The good thing about betting hockey for me personally is that the consensous and percentage of people betting the fav and dogs in NHL are irrelevant as opposed to the other major sports leagues because it is such a smaller market so I dont even worry or look into stuff like that with pucks.....

[MtrCtyPimp]

I wouldnt say it is a consipracy theory but has been proven in the long run from past occurences more so than not....

The good thing about betting hockey for me personally is that the consensous and percentage of people betting the fav and dogs in NHL are irrelevant as opposed to the other major sports leagues because it is such a smaller market so I dont even worry or look into stuff like that with pucks.....

It works the same with hockey also Chad....I didnt say anything that day when Anaheim lost to LA but people were on the Ducks heavy and the line went down

PEACE

[Chado1]

It works the same with hockey also Chad....I didnt say anything that day when Anaheim lost to LA but people were on the Ducks heavy and the line went down

PEACE

I agree to some extent but my point is not half as much as the major market leagues....that was just a fluke game in which the Ducks packed it in for the All Star break and the Kings brought their A game....which is succeptable on any night where not the good teams can always beat the bad teams....like you said to me before with Mich St and cant win every game and no team is perfect but can still be good overall....

An example would be the Sens and Wings....I have checked into that stuff on numerous ocassions and seen the high clip and percentages of people taking these two teams on any given night and they continue to win and dominate their respected conferences....it does and may have "some" bearing but like I said not half as influential as the larger market leagues with more public action in general.....but I now what your saying Ronnie...

[MtrCtyPimp]

Up for the big one....I am going check out about 10 props that I think have a decent shot at cashing and will post the ones I play


PEACE

[blitz]

Pimp,

I noticed that you pick this on the Super Bowl Props Contest.

1) Who Wins the Super Bowl ... AFC or NFC? NFC Wins

Don't you mean AFC? Not NFC. Just pointing it out to you in case it was a mistake.

[MtrCtyPimp]

Super Sunday Props

1* Plays

Both teams kick FG over 33 Yards +155 (got to think it will happen)

Total score of game will be even # +120 (why not)

TD not scored by offense +150 (ST or defense could get one)

INT return for TD +325 (Pats late or Giants early)

Pats -21' +280 (blowout is imminent)

Randy Moss catch Over 35' +100 (bombs away)

Randy Moss TD 1h +135 (they cant stop him)

Randy Moss 2TDs or more +178 (no kidding)

NE time of possesion -5' +135 (Pats will have the ball for over 33 mins)

Eli Manning +77' pass yards Over Brady -110 (Manning will be throwing all game)



2* Plays

Largest lead over 18 -110 (at some point the Pats will have this covered)

PEACE

[MtrCtyPimp]

Pimp,

I noticed that you pick this on the Super Bowl Props Contest.

1) Who Wins the Super Bowl ... AFC or NFC? NFC Wins

Don't you mean AFC? Not NFC. Just pointing it out to you in case it was a mistake.

Nah you have it correct....alot of times when I am making picks for contests I just try and get whatever is in my head at the time so I dont forget to do it later and usually not much thought goes into it or I try making a 'different' choice

PEACE

[Kaptain]

I'm banging the OVER here........NE will get theirs, and if the Giants want to win or keep it close, they'll have to score also.....IMO

[BillMill71]

Good Luck MCP

[jt4545]

Good Luck "mp"