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Conference Championship Games



NFL DUNKEL INDEX

San Diego at New England
The Patriots were a part of San Diego's early demise as they easily defeated the Chargers (38-14) in Week 2. But San Diego recovered by winning 10 of its last 12, including last week's upset at Indianapolis over the heavily-favored Colts. The Patriots keep on winning, but are just 1-6 in their last seven ATS compared to San Diego's perfect 7-0 mark. The Chargers are the underdog pick (+14) according to Dunkel, which has New England favored by just 8. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+14). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 20

Game 303-304: San Diego at New England
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 140.943; New England 148.923
Dunkel Line: New England by 8; 44
Vegas Line: New England by 14; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+14); Under

Game 305-306: NY Giants at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 133.243; Green Bay 142.357
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 9; 43
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 7; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-7); Over

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NFC Championship Game

For the first time since 1998, the Green Bay Packers are one step away from the Super Bowl. This time last year, they were one step away from life without Brett Favre.

But the legendary quarterback opted to return. Not only that, he put together perhaps the best season of his illustrious 17-year career. On Sunday, Favre will lead his team up against the New York Giants in the NFC Championship Game at Lambeau Field.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Green Bay (14-3 straight up, 13-3-1 against the spread) as a seven-point favorite with a total of 44. On Thursday, a number of books moved the Packers to 7 1/2, while other spots added prices of minus 120 or more for gamblers looking to take Green Bay at seven.

The total spent most of the week at 41, partly because of the inclement weather that’s expected. That number was reduced further Thursday, when most sports books had 39 1/2 or 40.

The Packers advanced by trouncing Seattle 42-20 last week as seven-point home ‘chalk.’ Ryan Grant recovered from a pair of first-quarter fumbles to rush for 201 yards and three touchdowns. Favre completed 18-of-23 throws for 173 yards, three TDs and zero interceptions.

New York (12-6 SU, 12-6 ATS) has gone on the road and won twice in as many weeks, including Sunday’s 21-17 win at Dallas as a seven-point underdog. Brandon Jacobs found paydirt from one yard out early in the fourth quarter for what proved to be the game-winning touchdown.

In the final stanza, Dallas started a pair of drives in excellent field postion – once from its own 44 and once from New York’s 48 – but couldn’t cash in. On fourth and 10 in the waning seconds, Tony Romo was picked off by R.W. McQuarters in the end zone to send the NFC’s top-seeded Cowboys into early vacation.

Eli Manning completed 12-of-18 attempts for 163 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Most importantly, he didn’t throw an interception for the second straight game. Dating back to the 38-35 loss to New England in the regular-season finale, Manning has an 8/1 touchdown-interception ratio.

After the Cowboys ate up most of the second quarter with a 20-play, 90-yard drive, New York found itself in a 14-7 hole with 47 seconds left. In this scenario, most coaches want to try and get into field-goal range, while more conservative coaches might opt to just sit on the ball.

The Giants decided to try and get ‘3’, but they were able to get greedy after a Steve Smith reception and subsequent 15-yard penalty for a face-mask. Three plays later, Manning and Co. faced a third-and-10 at the Dallas 23 with 17 seconds left. That’s when Manning found his rookie tight end Kevin Boss for a 19-yard gain.

On the next play, Manning hit Amani Toomer for a four-yard scoring strike. Just like that, the G-Men had taken momentum back. For Manning, it may have been his coming-of-age moment.

“That drive was definitely the turning point in the game,” . “Dallas went into the locker room deflated.”

*** felt so strongly about the momentum shift that he made an unusual gambling move, betting a halftime line at a number less generous than the original line. With the game tied, oddsmakers made Dallas a 4 ½-point favorite for the second half.

Since the line closed at Dallas minus seven, the smart play at halftime appeared to be the Cowboys with 2 ½ points shaved off the original number.



Let’s get back to the Packers, who have won six in a row at home. They have won their last five home outings by margins of 14 points or more. For the season, Green Bay has an 8-1 SU record and a 7-1-1 ATS mark at Lambeau.

These teams met at the Meadowlands in Week 2 of the regular season. In fairness to Eli and the Giants, Manning didn’t practice all week and his status was “questionable” at best leading into the game. He did end up playing, throwing for 211 yards, one TD and one interception.

The Packers had a 14-13 lead going into the fourth quarter, but they quickly pulled away in the final stanza and cruised to a 35-13 win as one-point underdogs. Favre threw for 286 yards and three touchdowns.

The ‘over’ is on fire for the Packers, cashing in each of their last eight games. They have watched the ‘over’ go 13-4 overall.

The ‘under’ has been a money maker for the Giants on the road, cashing at a 7-2 clip. They lost at Dallas in Week 1 but have won nine consecutive games outside of the Big Apple.

Tom Coughlin’s club has a 6-1-1 spread record as an underdog. The G-Men have won outright five times in eight games as underdogs.

Kick-off is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. Eastern on Fox.



--The favorite has covered the spread in three consecutive NFC Championship Games and nine of the last 14.

--Turnovers are the great equalizer in football. In wins at Tampa Bay and at Dallas, the Giants had zero turnovers.

--Check back later in the week for an updated weather report. As of Thursday night, temperatures in Green Bay for Saturday night were expected to be in single digits.

--Let’s rate the QBs of the four NFL teams still alive:
1-Tom Brady
2-Brett Favre
3-Eli Manning
4-Philip Rivers

--Let’s rate the coaches:
1-Bill Belichick
2-Mike McCarthy
3-Tom Coughlin
4-Norv Turner

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The Pack is the one to back

There are just some places in sports that you don’t want to play at if you’re the visiting team: The Montreal Forum in April, Yankees Stadium in October and Lambeau Field in January.

Well one of those venues isn’t used any longer and another hasn’t instilled fear in the opposition’s hearts since 2002.

Lambeau Field, on the other hand, has always carried an aura about itself, no matter when teams played on its grass surface. When you add the snow and chill of playing in Wisconsin in January, the situation is almost unbeatable.

So now the Giants get the chance to come into Green Bay as seven-point road ‘dogs with the hope of claiming a berth in Super Bowl XLII. Lucky them, right?

I’ll be the first to admit that it is really hard to argue against New York right now. The G-men have gone 8-0 SU and ATS in their last eight road games this season, and that includes two straight victories away from home in the playoffs. So there is no reason to think they can’t pull off the hat trick just like the Steelers did two years ago in advancing to the Super Bowl, right?

Well…not so fast.

People are enamored with New York right now, no question about that being true. However, most have developed man-crushes of Brokeback Mountain proportions on Brett Favre (John Madden…I’m looking at you).

I will say that it’s hard not to argue with Favre’s career: seven division championships, two NFC titles and a Super Bowl Championship.

Adding more luster to that legend is Favre’s record is his play at Lambeau Field. Green Bay is 104-30 SU and 69-58-7 since Southern Miss grad took over under center during the 1992 season.

His dominance doesn’t just end with regular season play, the Pack is 7-2 SU and 4-3-2 ATS when playing at home during the postseason.

It also helps the Packers’ cause to know they were one of the better home teams in 2007, going 8-1 SU and 6-1-2 this year.

There is also a small matter of the weather.

The current forecast for Green Bay on Sunday is a game-time high of six degrees. Yeah, you heard me right…SIX! And of course, you can forget about the 30 percent chance of snow that accompanies the ambient temperature.

Some bettors might not buy into this being a big deal, but they’re just fooling themselves. And I blame Eli Manning for me thinking this way.

Sure, Manning has had three impressive outings in a row…no denying that point with anyone. It’s just that he doesn’t have the experience to handle adverse weather.

The Ole Miss product has played in a grand total of two contests in his career where the temperature dipped below freezing. He went 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS in those matches. Respectable numbers, but his last game in sub-freezing temps was back in 2005.

Compare Manning to Favre, who has made a name for himself as one of the best cold weather players in NFL history, and it’s not even close.

It also doesn’t hurt to have a defense that allowed just Seattle to convert just three of 11 third downs in the divisional round.

Besides, recent history is on Green Bay’s side. The home favorite has won by double digits in the last three NFC Championship Games. And the Packers have gone 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three home contests over the Giants.

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Championship Trends


With the Patriots set as two touchdown favorites and the Packers set as a touchdown favorite it seems to be pretty certain in the minds of most people that we will have a Green Bay/New England Super Bowl. That is the match-up that everyone that is not a Chargers or a Giants fan wants to see right? What's not to like, the undefeated Patriots going against the historic Packers, both led by eminently likable and legendary quarterbacks. They are two of the most popular franchises in the league, one in a major Eastern media market and the other serving as the beacon of the Midwest, community owned and the toughest ticket around. What could be better?

The problem is that the conference championship games do not usually play out as expected, at least in recent years. Last season both home favorites won and covered, with the Bears and the Colts advancing, but those results broke a nine-year streak of at least one road team winning a conference championship game. That's right from 1998 to 2006, at least one Super Bowl representative each year got there by winning on the road. So if you are a Giants or Chargers fan, hold onto hope. If you are a money-line underdog player, you have to like the steep spreads.

Check out the conference championship results since 1998 (home teams in CAPS):

2007
AFC - INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) over New England 38-34
NFC - CHICAGO (-2.5) over New Orleans 39-14

2006
AFC - Pittsburgh (+3) over DENVER 34-17
NFC - SEATTLE (-3.5) over Carolina 34-14

2005
AFC - New England (-3) over PITTSBURGH 41-27
NFC - PHILADELPHIA (-5.5) over Atlanta 27-10

2004
AFC - NEW ENGLAND (-3) over Indianapolis 24-14
NFC - Carolina (+4) over PHILADELPHIA 14-3

2003
AFC - OAKLAND (-8) over Tennessee 41-24
NFC - Tampa Bay (+4) over PHILADELPHIA 10-27

2002
AFC - New England (+10) over PITTSBURGH 24-17
NFC - ST. LOUIS (-10.5) over Philadelphia 29-24

2001
AFC - Baltimore (+6) over OAKLAND 16-3
NFC - NY GIANTS (+2.5) over Minnesota 41-0

2000
AFC - Tennessee (+7) over JACKSONVILLE 33-14
NFC - ST. LOUIS (-14.5) over Tampa Bay 11-6

1999
AFC - DENVER (-9) over NY Jets 23-10
NFC - Atlanta (+10.5) over MINNESOTA 30-27

1998
AFC - Denver (-2.5) over PITTSBURGH 24-21
NFC - Green Bay (-2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 23-10

As you can see, road teams are 10-10 straight-up and home favorites are just 7-9 against the spread (home underdogs going 1-3) in the last ten years. If you are a Patriots fan another reason to be worried is that double-digit favorites are 0-4 against the spread in the last ten years, losing twice outright in conference championship games. You'll notice that the spreads this year are unusually high for a conference championship game based on the recent numbers. The last time both games featured spreads of seven or greater was in 2002, when both underdogs covered.

It may be tough to envision Eli Manning or Philip Rivers (or gulp, Billy Volek) sprinting out of the tunnel on Super Bowl Sunday but if the last ten years of conference championship games provide a reasonable estimation, one of those quarterbacks will earn a career highlight win this week. Both the Giants and Chargers face brutal travel situations and are dealing with injuries but neither team was expected to win last week and both pulled it out.

Historically the divisional playoff rounds typically favor the home favorite, but last week those teams went 1-3 against the spread last week. Last year home favorites went 0-4 against the spread in the divisional round, so trends obviously are not always meaningful and can often change course.

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Bump-

[Pitt37]

Nice work and interesting read GG!

Thanks!