Nfl Championship Trends /tips / Articles And Other Info - Tons Of Stuff !!

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Opening Line Report

Las Vegas Sports Consultants senior oddsmaker Mike Seba isn’t a big fan of New York Giants coach Tom Coughlin and his on-the-field coaching strategy.

Seba also knows the Giants have multiple injuries and will be playing their third consecutive road game when they take on the Green Bay Packers Sunday night in the NFC title game.

But he’s surprised the Giants aren’t getting more respect on the betting line. The Packers are seven-point favorites. That’s the number LVSC recommended to its Nevada sportsbook clients. Seba thought the number should be Packers -6.

“Even with all the injuries they’ve had, they’ve done a great job,” Seba said of the Giants. “It’s too many points for Green Bay to lay in what looks to be a conservative game in cold weather.”

The Giants have won nine road games in a row. The Giants may run out of gas, though. This is their third straight away contest. It’s also their fourth consecutive big-game in a row counting their Week 17 home matchup against New England, which was bidding to become the first team to go 16-0 during the regular season. The Giants gave everything they had in a 38-35 loss.

The early Sunday night forecast in Green Bay is for a high temperature of 12 degrees with a 40 percent chance of snow. The wind chill factor could dip below zero. The ‘over/under’ has come down from an opening of 43 ½ to 42 or 41 ½ depending on the sportsbook.

LVSC’s sent-out number on the San Diego-New England AFC championship game was Patriots -14 and 50 on the total.

The Patriots were as high as -15 on Sunday night, when the championship numbers first came out. By Monday afternoon, though, the Patriots were -14 across the board. The total had dipped from a high of 51 down to 47 ½.

Snow isn’t in the early forecast for Foxboro, however, cold weather is expected. That’s not good for warm-weather San Diego. Neither are its three key skill position players being all banged-up.

LVSC’s opener of Patriots -14 is based on LaDainian Tomlinson and Philip Rivers playing. Both are dealing with knee injuries, while Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates has a dislocated toe. He was in-and-out of the lineup during Sunday’s victory against the Colts.

Seba believes the Chargers, like the Giants, aren’t getting enough respect on the betting line. He made the line Patriots -13.

“San Diego has looked great,” he said. “The Chargers have won eight in a row. They had a very gusty performance against the Colts.

“The Patriots defense is vulnerable. They haven’t looked like the Patriots of Week 8.”

New England only is 2-7 against the spread during its past nine games.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if the Patriots closed -13 ½,” Seba said.

Bookmakers traditionally shade the home favorites in championship games. That’s the case again this season.

“You always want to be on the high side of these championship games,” Seba said. “But I just think these lines are inflated. It’s a lot of points to be laying into two hot teams.”

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History favors the Chargers

The New England Patriots have been overwhelming favorites the entire season, with many offshores listing the club from Massachusetts at a 5/2 price in early September.

Seventeen wins later, it appears the Patriots will run the table and become the first team to post a perfect 19-0 mark. Especially after watching Indianapolis and Dallas both get eliminated on their home turf this past weekend, it’s hard to make a case for the remaining three teams.

The oddsmakers agree, making New England a 14-point home favorite in the AFC Championship game against San Diego on Sunday.

And currently the Las Vegas Hilton and bookmaker Jay Korenagy have made the AFC a 13 ½-point favorite over the NFC in Super Bowl XLII, with the total at 55.

After delving through documented pro football records, it was hard to find a lot of our experts backing the Chargers against the Colts. However, there were a few experts believing in the West Coast club.

“I liked San Diego against the Colts for several reasons including recent success against them, especially two years ago when they ended the Colts' 13-0 start to the season and their six picks of Manning in the earlier meeting this season. It was a good situation to illustrate why it is so tough for a Super Bowl champion to repeat.

Turnovers played a huge roll in the Chargers’ triumph, winning the turnover battle (3-1) against the Colts.

Iskoe added, “Turnovers should be key as is usually the case. But it's hard to handicap turnovers in most cases. The Chargers led the league with 48 takeaways in the regular season --11 better than the second best team (Indianapolis). They've added 5 more in the Playoffs. On the other hand the Patriots were best in the league in protecting the football, losing 15 turnovers in the regular season (and none in their Playoff win over Jacksonville).”

“So if the Chargers can cause turnovers they have a chance. Unfortunately they are going up against the best team in the league in NOT turning the ball over.”

New England has been listed as a double-digit favorite in 12 of its 17 games and has gone 6-6 in those situations against the spread. Keep in mind that the Pats have failed to cover their last four spots as a double-digit ‘chalk’, including last week’s 31-20 win against the Jaguars as 13-point favorites.

Will the public back the Patriots again? The line at Pinnacle and CRIS, the two biggest offshore books opened the line at 15 ½ and 15 respectively. As of Monday morning, the number has settled on two scores (14).

According to Iskoe, championship games haven’t been close. “Going back to 1990, when the present 12-team playoff format was adopted, the average margin of victory in all playoff games is 14 points and that is very consistent regardless of the round.”

“In the Conference Championships, the point-spread matters less than in other playoff rounds with the favorite winning and covering, or losing outright, nearly 90 % of the time.”

When it comes to double-digit lines, history favors San Diego in this spot – against the spread that is!



Double-Digit Underdogs in Championship History (Last 5 games)
Year Matchup Score Line ATS
2001-02 New England at Pittsburgh 24-17 10, 37 Underdog, Over
2001-02 Philadelphia at St. Louis 29-24 10.5, 49 Underdog, Over
1999-00 Tampa Bay at St. Louis 11-6 14.5, 44 Underdog, Under
1998-99 Atlanta at Minnesota 30-27 10.5, 55 Underdog, Over
1995-96 Indianapolis at Pittsburgh 20-16 12, 41 Underdog, Under


Double-digit underdogs have produced a perfect 5-0 ATS mark in the last five championship games, both AFC and NFC. Pulling off the monumental upset wasn’t out of reach either, connecting at 40 percent (2-3) during this stretch.

The number on this game could move a couple more points, depending on San Diego’s injury report.

Iskoe believes that it’s still a tough game to handicap right now due to some key injuries but the Chargers are an improved team.

“Much of San Diego's chances against New England obviously rely on the availability of quarterback Philip Rivers and running back LaDanian Tomlinson. Even with both starting the Chargers will find it tough going against the Pats. Note that even in defeat the Colts passed for over 400 yards on Sunday.”

“Statistically the Chargers are not 15 points worse than the Pats. They nearly beat New England in the playoffs last season and did defeat them soundly in New England a year earlier. We know the Pats blew out the Chargers in Week 2 this season but keep in mind that the Chargers had a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator -- all factors that take time to settle in and can't be comfortable based just upon training camp and exhibition game experiences.”

Can the Chargers become the sixth straight underdog to cash tickets in a conference championship?

Gamblers have six days to decide…

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GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) -

For much of this season, the Green Bay Packers have been causing fits for opposing defenses with their ''Big Five'' formation - five wide receivers and an empty backfield.

But with the weather turning bad against Seattle on Saturday, the Packers temporarily put their signature spread formation on ice and mostly ran their way to a dominant 42-20 victory.

The Big Five hiatus shouldn't last very long, though.

With the Packers preparing to face the New York Giants' banged-up secondary in Sunday's NFC championship game at Lambeau Field, there's every reason to think they'll return to turning their receivers loose.

Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin said coaches went into Saturday planning on using the five-wide formation, but decided to steer clear of it as the game unfolded.

''We just felt like we had better things in our game plan to utilize,'' Philbin said. ''And obviously the score being what it was, the weather being what it was later in the game, it didn't make a lot of sense at that point.''

By unofficial count, the Packers didn't use their Big Five formation at all against Seattle on Saturday. Green Bay did deploy a similar personnel group with four receivers and tight end Donald Lee lined up wide - but they only used that twice.

Instead, the Packers went in the opposite direction.

Not only did they run the ball 35 times while passing only 23 times - only the third game all season in which the Packers have run more than they've passed - they often did it out of full-house formations featuring two fullbacks and running back Ryan Grant.

It was an offbeat look for a team that until then had seemed to be spending more and more time with nobody lined up behind Brett Favre.

Philbin said the Packers' two-fullback attack is designed to make a defense commit to defending one side or the other, then exploit it.

''It's like anything else, you just try to figure out what they're trying to stop in that particular formation and then work off of that,'' Philbin said. ''Are they geared up for the run? Maybe you've got some throws you can do. Are they geared up one side? Maybe you can work the other side. So it's not unlike many of our formation groupings that we're trying to just gain an advantage, a little bit here or there.''

Big Five also makes defenses make difficult choices. Do they sit back in a zone, or do they play man-to-man coverage and blitz? Teams have tried both approaches, and neither has worked consistently.

But at the same time, the formation leaves Favre by himself in the backfield, relying solely on his offensive line and his ability to dump the ball off quickly to avoid sacks.

And while Packers right tackle Mark Tauscher ended up having an excellent day against star defensive end Patrick Kerney on Saturday, the Packers didn't necessarily want to take chances against the Seahawks.

Add in a stellar day from running back Ryan Grant and an unexpected snowstorm, and it didn't make much sense for the Packers to get pass-happy.

''You stay with what's hot, and obviously our run game had been very, very productive,'' Philbin said.

While Green Bay's Big Five has drawn a lot of attention in the second half of the season, Packers coach Mike McCarthy said the team hasn't necessarily been emphasizing it.

''If you sat there and watched every time we were in Big Five or Big Four, you'd say, 'Wow, they're doing more with that particular formation,''' McCarthy said. ''But conceptually on the things that we do throughout, it's not as much, without getting into the details.''

The Packers didn't go into this season expecting to regularly spread the field with five wide receivers, but needed something to kick-start the offense.

''You don't care if it's five tight ends or five wideouts, shoot, you're just trying to get the ball in the end zone,'' Philbin said. ''I don't know. I don't really think in those terms. But it's been a nice little part of our package.''

And it could be making a return very soon against a Giants team that might be dealing with injuries in its secondary. But if Philbin is planning on that, he isn't saying so.

''You can't make too much out of stuff like that,'' Philbin said. ''Good teams usually have guys who rise up and step up to the plate when called upon. And those guys certainly did. They disrupted routes, they didn't have a lot of big deep explosive passes against them, they tackled pretty well. Those guys played well. So we're going to have to see what transpires here.''

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The last time the San Diego Chargers went to New England, they had Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson and a healthy Antonio Gates.

They lost anyway, 38-14.

The Chargers may have beaten the Indianapolis Colts 28-24 on Sunday without their top players, but they'll have a hard time keeping up with the unbeaten Patriots in the AFC title game if they're still out. The same thing seems true in the NFC, where the New York Giants will head to Green Bay after upsetting Dallas 21-17 with a banged-up secondary missing its top three cornerbacks.

Back on Sept. 16, a Sunday night game in the second week of the season, the Patriots were just getting started on their 16-0 run and blowing away anyone in their path. Their margin of victory dropped markedly in the second half of the season, but New England will still be 17-0 when it plays host to the Chargers next Sunday.

''A lot's happened since then,'' Patriots coach Bill Belichick said after the Chargers beat the Colts to qualify for a trip to Foxborough and the AFC title game. ''We'll definitely start all over on the preparations. It's like it's a new team.''

The first question for San Diego is the health of Rivers and Tomlinson, its starting quarterback and star running back, who was the 2006 NFL MVP. Both injured their knees against the Colts and their status isn't yet known for the conference championship. Gates played with a toe injury, but clearly wasn't at full speed.

Both Rivers and Tomlinson said they hope to play. Coach Norv Turner said they both were questionable.

Even if they do take the field, the Chargers (13-5) face a daunting task.

Tom Brady did to Jacksonville in Saturday night's 31-20 win what Peyton Manning did to the Chargers early in Sunday's game, completing his first 13 passes, most of them underneath, to help Indianapolis take a 7-0 lead. But after Marvin Harrison, coming back from injury, fumbled one of his completions to give the Chargers life, Manning started taking more chances and had less success deep.

San Diego managed to beat the Colts with subs - good ones in Michael Turner and Darren Sproles at running back, plus journeyman Billy Volek at quarterback leading the winning TD drive. Turner and Sproles together equal Tomlinson, but Volek is not going to beat the Patriots. Rivers will have a hard time doing that if he's ready.

If the Chargers, who opened as a 15-point underdog, are to have a chance, they'll have to get the kind of pressure they got on Manning on critical drives late in the game. That was most notable when Shawne Merriman got around rookie left tackle Tony Ugoh to force an incomplete pass on fourth down inside the San Diego 10-yard line with just over 2 minutes left.

Merriman is certainly one of the NFL's best pass rushers and Shaun Phillips is formidable from the other side.

So Brady may not have as much time as he had Saturday night in completing 26 of 28 passes, an NFL playoff-record 92.9 percent. But the Chargers don't cover as well as Jacksonville, and Randy Moss is unlikely to be limited to one catch for 14 yards, as he was by the Jaguars.

Now we wait to see if Rivers and Tomlinson will even play.

Belichick thinks they will.

''We're prepared for everybody. As we saw today, any number of players could be in the game,'' he said. ''If they're on the 53-man roster, we'll prepare for everybody.''

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NFC
New York Giants (12-6) at Green Bay (14-3)

Like the Patriots and Chargers, these two played in the second week. That one was at Giants Stadium and the Packers won 35-13 before New York understood the defense installed by Steve Spagnuolo, its new coordinator.

That defense, with its stunts and twists, confused and harassed Tony Romo enough in the second half against Dallas on Sunday to keep him from exploiting a secondary without Sam Madison, Aaron Ross and Kevin Dockery, its three top cornerbacks for most of the season.

The Packers opened as a 6 1/2-point favorite, which seems a little low.

Consider that Eli Manning's revival - eight touchdown passes, just one interception and passer ratings of well over 100 in his last three games - all came in good weather. And he has attributed his problems in the four previous games to wind and cold.

Attention Eli: The long-range forecast for next Sunday in Green Bay is a high of 4 degrees. Yes, Brett Favre, like Manning, is a southerner - his hometown of Kiln, Miss., and Manning's New Orleans are about 60 miles apart.

But Favre has played in Green Bay for 16 seasons and thrives there. Had he been forced to go to Dallas, he would have been returning to a place where he is 0-9 as a starter.

If it turns into a ground battle, there's the matchup that probably will be second only to Brett-Eli in the pregame hype: Ryan Grant, who rushed for 201 yards against in the 42-20 win over Seattle in the snow on Saturday vs. the Giants running backs.

Grant, who played high school football less than 20 miles from Giants Stadium, was signed as an undrafted free agent from Notre Dame by New York in 2005. He spent that year on the practice squad, then last season on injured reserve.

He was impressive in preseason but was fifth on the depth chart behind Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, Reuben Droughns and Ahmad Bradshaw. The Packers, knowing he would be cut, gave the Giants a sixth-round pick for him before some other team could claim him on waivers.

Now Grant stands between his old teammates and the Super Bowl.

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New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7, 42)


Little brother comes up big

Giants quarterback Eli Manning stepped out of his big brother’s shadow on Sunday. While Peyton and the Colts were laboring to a 28-24 defeat to San Diego, younger brother Eli was leading his team to the NFC Championship game.

The Giants’ Manning threw for 163 yards and two touchdowns in a 21-17 win over No.1 seed Dallas. He led a game-changing 71-yard drive at the end of the first half, tying the score at 14-14 before the break.

“That's the man who won this game for us," Antonio Pierce said. Amani Toomer added: “Eli was just outstanding,"

Brandon Jacobs reserved the most praise, saying: “He's the best quarterback I've ever played with. I love the guy to death. I don't give a damn what anyone says about it. I don't know if he silenced the critics. In this game, you're always going to have critics.”

Youthful pack

The Green Bay Packers were the NFL’s youngest team at the start of the season, with an average age of 26 years and 89 days. Heading into Saturday’s playoff game against Seattle, veteran cornerback Al Harris said he thought Green Bay’s inexperience might count against them. Man, was he wrong.

Greg Jennings, 24, caught two touchdown passes and had a total of six receptions for 71 yards. Strong safety Atari Bigby, 26, had seven tackles and forced an important fumble early on. Defensive end Cullen Jenkins, 26, had one and a half sacks and was within inches of sacking Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck on two other occasions.

And probably the most impressive show of character was from 25-year-old tailback Ryan Grant. He had two early fumbles that helped Seattle jump out to a 14-0 lead, but recovered his composure to run for 201 yards.

Of course the team’s veteran leader, Brett Favre, was also impressive. He threw for three touchdowns and 173 yards and his 137.6 passer rating was his best in 21 career postseason games.

Depleted secondary steps up

The Cowboys had about four minutes to rescue their season in the fourth quarter on Sunday, but the Giants’ defense came out on top. The defense’s performance is even more impressive when you consider the secondary was without several starting players because of injury.

Reserve defensive back R.W. McQuarters, along with his fellow reserve cornerbacks Corey Webster and Geoffrey Pope, were pressed into service due to the injury problems. They didn’t disappoint, and McQuarters produced the game-ending interception with nine seconds left on the clock, as Dallas pressed for the victory.

“It was a great win for us,” coach Tom Coughlin told the New York Times. “Our defensive guys were on the field for the majority of the time and had to make some big-time stops. And R. W., two weeks in a row now, played super in the secondary.”

The Giants two main injury concerns in the secondary are starting cornerback Sam Madison and his rookie counterpart Aaron Ross. Madison is struggling with a strained abdominal muscle, while Ross left Sunday’s game in the third quarter with shoulder injury.

Both are listed as doubtful for this week’s contest.

Road warriors

The Giants travel to Lambeau on an NFL-record nine-game road winning streak. With Sunday’s win over Dallas they became only the 10th team in history to win their first two playoff games on the road. Unfortunately for New York, only one of the nine went on to win the Super Bowl.

Green Bay, meanwhile, is an NFC-best 8-1 at home this season. It covered the spread in all but one of those eight wins.

Head to head

These teams have already met once this season, with the Packers coming out 35-12 victors at Giants Stadium on Sept. 16. Overall, Green Bay has won five of its last six against the Giants, covering the spread in three of the last four.

The Packers are 13-3-1 ATS for the season, compared to the Giants 12-6-0 mark.

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San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots (-14 ½, 49)
Sunday Jan. 20, 3 p.m. ET

San Diego’s grocery list of injuries is going to make for an interesting week of keeping at least one eye on daily line moves.

Again, this seems like a whack of points for the Patriots to cover, considering they have dropped four straight and six of their last seven against the number.

Last week I wrote that I didn’t think you could get a fair price on a Patriots bet with the media zoo that’s surrounding the team. By the looks of this 14 ½-point line, this week could be worse for Patriot-backing bargain hunters.

I’m not going near this spread until later in the week when we have a better idea about what San Diego’s injury situation might look like by Sunday.

Billy Volek was impressive while filling in for Philip Rivers when the starter went down with a knee injury, but let’s not get carried away – Volek did throw just four passes. Rivers looks like he’ll be fine by Sunday anyway, until he gets hit throwing another ridiculous pass off his back foot, that is.

Tight end Antonio Gates (dislocated toe) and running back LaDainian Tomlinson (bruised left knee) are much more questionable at this point. Gates didn’t contribute much against the Colts and San Diego will need him to be a much bigger factor against the Pats.

"The foot is a weird thing, man," Gates told reporters after catching just two balls for 28 yards against Indy. "I don't know about next week yet. We'll have to see after all the painkillers wear off and I see how it feels."

"I'm going to do whatever I can to be out there," he added, "and hopefully, I will be. I'll listen to what they want me to do and work hard, but I think I can do it if I just give it a little rest, too."

I’m less concerned about LaDainian Tomlinson’s injury with Michael Turner and Darren Sproles as insurance. Turner can break off some huge gains. Somewhere down the line, this guy is going to be a fantastic No. 1 running back for somebody as long as he stays healthy.

I still think the Jaguars had the best shot outside of Indy to knock off the Pats and Jacksonville hung with them into the fourth quarter. The Jags turned Randy Moss into a complete non-factor and New England had more than enough weapons to pick up the slack. That’s the record-setting Moss with one catch for 14 yards and Tom Brady was still 26-of-28 with three touchdowns to nearly cover the 13 ½ points. That’s scary.

Some Vegas books have already moved this line to -15, so you can see which way public perception is going to push this one. Stay tuned.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7, 42 ½)
Sunday Jan. 30, 6:30 p.m. ET

Earlier this season in front of a gang of reporters Brett Favre dubbed this year’s edition of the Packers as the most talented team he’d ever been a part of.

At the time that raised some eyebrows. Now it seems as though the ol’ gunslinger wasn’t as crazy as some people thought.

Three things that are going to have to happen for the New York Giants to upset the Green Bay Packers: 1. Keep Ryan Grant from running wild on them like Marion Barber did. 2. Get a lot more than 230 yards of total offense. 3. Get after Brett Favre all day long.

The good news for Giants bettors is that Eli Manning has been fantastic over the past few weeks. His numbers haven’t been earthshaking, but his poise in pressure situations has been a long time coming.

I still worry about New York’s offense with Plaxico Burress limping around. Working underneath to security blanket Amani Toomer and fill-in tight end Kevin Boss is a lot tougher when Burress isn’t stretching the secondary deep. Then again, the Giants made it work last weekend.

I don’t know where I stand on this line just yet, but I’d be tempted to play New York if it moves higher than seven points. You have to give the Giants credit. They limited the costly mistakes that killed them all season against Dallas and got a lot of pressure on Tony Romo.

A lot of the early action is coming in on Green Bay, which may drive the number up later in the week. Might be best to wait a few days if you’re thinking about taking the points.

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SAN DIEGO (AP) -- Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has a sprained ligament in his right knee and is listed as questionable for Sunday's AFC championship game against the undefeated New England Patriots.

Rivers injured his medial collateral ligament when he landed awkwardly after completing a 56-yard screen pass to Darren Sproles for a touchdown on the final play of the third quarter in Sunday's 28-24 upset of Indianapolis.

Coach Norv Turner compared Rivers' situation with that of tight end Antonio Gates, who dislocated his left big toe in a wild-card win over Tennessee, sat out practice all week and then played against the Colts.

"Right now it's probably questionable in terms of playing in the game, but he's got a chance," Turner said Monday. "That will be a day-to-day thing and we'll monitor it as the week goes on."

Billy Volek took over and led the go-ahead drive, scoring the winning touchdown on a 1-yard sneak.

Two-time NFL rushing champion LaDainian Tomlinson sat out the second half with an injured left knee but said he expects to play.

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FOXBOROUGH, Mass. --This is how terrific Tom Brady is: He was pitching the NFL equivalent of a perfect game two minutes into the third quarter, and no one on the New England sideline even noticed.

''I didn't really realize it,'' Pats tackle Matt Light said after New England's 31-20 victory sent Jacksonville home Saturday night. ''Somehow, though, it's not surprising to find out. I don't know. Maybe we just kind of expect it.''

On the Patriots' opening drive, Brady attempted five passes against Jacksonville's defense and completed them all, finishing with a 3-yard bullet to Benjamin Watson. On the second drive, he tried five and hit them all, letting Laurence Maroney run it over from 1 yard out. By halftime, Brady was 12-for-12.

If this were a baseball game, or if football players were half as superstitious as the boys of summer, coach Bill Belichick would have sent Brady to a corner of the bench where no one was allowed to go near him, let alone touch him.

''That's because there's way too much time in baseball sitting around doing nothing,'' Pats guard Logan Mankins said. ''You can't do that in football. Besides, nothing was different about tonight. Tom's walking around barking instructions at us the whole time the defense is on the field, just like he always does.

''But you know what?'' Mankins added. ''I would have loved to see somebody tell him to go sit in a corner.''

On the opening drive of the second half, Brady completed his first four. His fifth was a high, hard pass that Watson got his hands on, but couldn't pull down.

''You always think you should catch anything,'' Watson said. ''So it was my fault? My bad.''

Brady has been so good for so long in so many big situations that instead of letting that drop break his momentum, he simply began another streak. He completed passes of seven, 13 and six yards on the next three plays, ending the drive with a touchdown throw to Wes Welker.

''Those guys, when they're open like that, it's my job to hit them,'' Brady said. ''They were open every time.

''It's easy when you have receivers that are open all the time and an offensive line that never lets anyone touch you. It makes it fun to play.''

Thanks to Brady, playoff time in New England has become a lovefest. He's 7-0 at home and 13-2 in the postseason overall. The Pats won three Super Bowls in four years, and he was the MVP in two of those. Small wonder compliments fly around like snowflakes this time of year. Maybe that explains the first question asked by a TV reporter who came from Japan to see the magnificent one.

''You never seem flustered no matter the situation. From our Japanese point of view,'' he said, ''it looks very Zen of you.''

Brady bit his lower lip before answering, making him look even more boyish than usual.

''I'm all Zen,'' he chuckled. ''I'm all Zen.''

''I know you're from California,'' the TV reporter persisted, ''but where did you pick up that focus?''

''I hope I'm Zen-like for another week,'' Brady said a moment later. ''That would be a great feeling.''

The rest of the questions were variations on how Brady managed to play so well. Only two balls he threw all night hit the ground - Welker dropped the other one - and the interview room was quickly turning into a Tom Brady roast. Just about then, a New England public relations staffer yelled, ''last question,'' and from a corner came this one:

''Do you think you're a handsome quarterback?''

Brady blinked momentarily, then his eyes darted in the direction of the questioner. Seeing teammate Randy Moss wearing what looked like Superman pajamas, Brady had a comeback ready.

''Nice outfit,'' he said.

Yet the get-up almost seemed appropriate. Moss' arrival in the offseason gave Brady a receiving corps worthy of his talent for the first time in his career. Joining Welker and Donte Stallworth, Moss predicted that with a trio of receivers as good as those Colts quarterback Peyton Manning enjoyed for years, the sky would be the limit.

That was not an exaggeration. Brady broke Manning's single-season TD passing record with 50; Moss broke Jerry Rice's single-season TD reception mark with 23; and Patriots are now 17-0.

''I told you when I first got here, I've always been a fan of Tom's'' said Moss, who caught the only ball thrown in his direction, yet didn't complain one bit. ''He doesn't surprise me, man, but it's not just me. I think we expect greatness out of our leader.''

The only guy in the stadium Saturday night who wasn't impressed, ultimately, was Jacksonville safety Reggie Nelson.

Noting Brady completed only one long pass - a 53-yard post to Stallworth in the fourth quarter that set up a field goal and gave the Patriots a two-score cushion - the rookie said: ''It was a drop-down game. Anybody can go 26-of-28 in a drop-down game.''

Try it some time, Reggie, on your video game at home. Thanks to Tom Terrific you'll have all of next weekend off.

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On September 1, the Giants traded running back Ryan Grant to the Green Bay Packers for a sixth-round draft pick. At the time, the trade — involving a player who had never appeared in a regular-season game — seemed utterly inconsequential.

But on Sunday, that trade may come back to haunt the Giants.

Grant has emerged from the oblivion of the bottom of two NFL depth charts to become one of the best running backs in football this season. On Saturday, Grant shook off two early fumbles and ran for 201 yards in the Packers' victory over the Seattle Seahawks. And now, as the Giants prepare to face the Packers in the NFC Championship game, stopping Grant will be every bit as important to their defensive game plan as stopping Packers quarterback Brett Favre.

No one can blame Giants general manager Jerry Reese for the decision to trade Grant. The Giants entered the regular season so loaded at running back that if they hadn't been able to acquire something for Grant in a trade, they probably would have released him. Grant played well for the Giants during the preseason, running 18 times for 90 yards, but even if he had gained twice as many yards in exhibition games, he wouldn't have been able to beat out the Giants' other running backs for playing time.

The running back talent on the Giants' roster is incredible: Brandon Jacobs had a 1,000-yard season despite missing five games with injuries. Derrick Ward was the Giants' primary ball carrier six times, and he averaged more than 90 yards in those six games. Ahmad Bradshaw has burst onto the scene in December and January after filling in for Ward. Reuben Droughns has two different 1,200-yard seasons on his NFL résumé, but he's hardly even been able to get on the field this year. With those four players in the mix, it's not hard to see why Reese figured trading Grant was the right move.

In short, Grant was one of five different running backs on the Giants' preseason roster who could have been starters on some other NFL teams. Not bad for a team whose supposed top concern was replacing Tiki Barber.

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When the New York Giants took the unbeaten New England Patriots to the wire in the regular-season finale, it looked like they’d fought the good fight but probably had seen the high point of their season.


Instead, that Saturday night in late December became their launching pad for the playoffs. The Giants then went into Tampa Bay and Dallas as underdogs and came out with wins that have landed them in the NFC championship game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Sunday.

Looking back, that three-point loss against New England was as good as a victory, because the Giants proved to themselves they could play with the best team in the NFL.

“Some beatings are good for you,” said a personnel director for a team that played the Giants in December. “You learn how to fight, and I think the Giants have learned how to fight.”

So, the Packers will be taking on a mentally tough, fifth-seeded Giants team that’s won nine straight road games and is riding the kind of high that has carried other lower-seeded teams to past Super Bowls.

However, the Packers also have extra momentum coming off their best game of the Mike McCarthy era in their 42-20 win over Seattle and have the home-field advantage. The Packers are a seven-point favorite for those reasons and more. Two scouts interviewed Monday said they expect the Packers to win.

“I just think it’s (the Packers’) year,” one said. “But the Giants are hot, and there’s no telling. It’s going to be a good game.”

A pro personnel for an NFC team said: “I’d go with Green Bay by, I don’t know, 14 points. I think Green Bay will shut down New York’s running game, and they’ll force Eli (Manning) to throw the ball. Even though he’s played well in these (playoff) games, he hasn’t been forced to win the game. He’s just had to manage it, and he’s fine there. But if you ask him to throw the ball 40 times, which he’ll probably end up having to do, I think Green Bay shuts that down and Green Bay beats the Giants with the big play, throwing the ball down the field.”

The Giants (12-6) have gotten this far mainly on the back of their pass rush, which has become the NFL’s best under new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. The Giants led the NFL with 53 sacks and play the same unpredictable zone-blitz scheme as Spagnuolo’s mentor, Philadelphia defensive coordinator Jimmy Johnson.

“New York has nobody to match up with (the Packers’ receivers),” one scout said, “so they’re going to have to get pressure from (Michael) Strahan and (Osi) Umenyiora and (Fred) Robbins up the middle, and blitz (Favre) and get hits on the quarterback. If they do that, they’ll have a chance, but if they don’t get home, they’re in trouble.”

The Giants’ defense, which finished the season ranked seventh in the NFL in yards allowed and 17th in points allowed, starts with Strahan (nine sacks) at left end and Umenyiora (13 sacks) at right end. Both are on the small side (255 pounds and 261 pounds, respectively) but form probably the best pass-rushing end combination in the league.

Paul Hackett, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator, said in the Bucs’ playoff loss, the Giants’ constant pass rush was the difference and induced two interceptions by quarterback Jeff Garcia, who had thrown only four interceptions in the regular season.

“(Strahan) was very tough on us, we really struggled to handle him,” Hackett said. “It’s that constant push up to the front side of the quarterback that’s very bothersome. His power and strength, you really need a back to chip him and save yourself. But just when you get enamored with him, on the left side Umenyiora goes by single blockers. The fact that they have two compromises your (halfback) releases and the things you’re going to do coming out of the backfield, because you just can’t afford to scat out of there, you have to give some help, because if not, it’s going to be a long afternoon.”

The Giants have a third end, Justin Tuck, who moves to tackle on passing downs and had 10 sacks this season.

Their individual talent then combines with Spagnuolo’s zone-blitz scheme, which the Giants’ defensive players appear to have bought into completely as the season has gone on. In the Giants’ 21-17 win over Dallas on Sunday in the divisional round of the playoffs, their pass rush was OK for three quarters but then took over the game in the fourth. They had only two sacks in the game, but they hurried and battered quarterback Tony Romo on pass after pass on Dallas’ final three possessions with the chance to take the lead.

The Johnson-Spagnuolo scheme specializes in zone blitzes, but it’s different than most teams, because their play-calling is brash and unpredictable.

“The multiplicity of it, the fact they’ll use the corners coming from the perimeter as well as the linebackers coming up the middle is a big part of it,” Hackett said. “They’re not timid about using it, they’re not timid about coming with basically an all-out, maximum blitz at basically any point on the field. Most teams reserve that to the red zone, but this is a team you have to prepare for that all over the field.”

The Packers will counter with an excellent pass-blocking duo in tackles Chad Clifton against Umenyiora and Mark Tauscher against Strahan, plus a deep receiving corps that McCarthy likes to deploy in three-, four- and five-receiver sets. The Giants’ weak point is in the secondary, which has been thinned even further by injuries to three cornerbacks.

Starter Sam Madison has missed both playoff games because of a pulled abdominal muscle, and nickel-back Kevin Dockery didn’t play against Dallas because of a hip injury. Also, impressive rookie Aaron Ross missed most of the second half against the Cowboys because of a separated shoulder. It’s unclear which, if any, of the three will be available this week. That leaves R.W. McQuarters, second-year pro Corey Webster and recently promoted practice-squad player Geoffrey Pope possibly playing prominent roles.

“Really, their secondary is their worst part,” the NFC scout said. “Sam Madison didn’t play last week, but he wasn’t that great (anyway). R.W. McQuarters played the best game he’s played in five years (against Dallas) and will probably never play like that again. Corey Webster won’t run well enough to run with Green Bay’s (receivers). Gibril Wilson, the safety, is probably their best secondary player and he’s a safety, and he’ll match up fine against (tight ends) Donald Lee and Bubba Franks.

"But the problem’s going to be, who’s going to match up with the wide receivers?”

Hackett said: “We thought they might be somewhat vulnerable at the corners and they did OK. We got by them a few times, but we didn’t play well enough and throw the ball as well as we needed to. The two interceptions came both on deep balls where we just missed. We had a chance at it but just missed.”

On offense, the Giants are a run-first team with 265-pound Brandon Jacobs (1,009 yards, 5.0 yards a carry), who is their primary runner, and seventh-round draft pick Ahmad Bradshaw, a small (5-9, 198) but explosive complement. Bradshaw averaged 8.3 yards on only 23 carries in the regular season.

The passing game rests in the hands of Manning, who’s been maddeningly up and down in his four seasons in the NFL. He finished this season with only a 73.9 passer rating, a 56.1 completion percentage and 20 interceptions. But he hasn’t thrown an interception in the playoffs, which has been a major factor in the Giants’ wins.

Manning doesn’t have perennial Pro Bowl tight end Jeremy Shockey, who’s on injured reserve, but one of the scouts said that might actually have helped him, because he’s spreading around the ball more. Manning has a good starting duo at receiver in Plaxico Burruss (70 receptions, 12 touchdowns) and Amani Toomer (59 receptions), who had two touchdown catches against the Cowboys.

“New York will pound the ball with the big running back,” the NFC scout said, “try to run the ball by committee with Bradshaw and take the pressure off Eli, let him just play the game instead of win the game or control the game, take the slant, go down the field now and then because he can, not because he has to.

"I’d give the wide receiver-cornerback advantage to Green Bay, both Charles (Woodson) and Al (Harris) match up good against their receivers.”

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Recent NFL Championship Weekend Results


Let’s delve now into the National Football League to give you some insight into the Conference Championship Games. First off, here’s the results of the AFC and the NFC Championship Games the past five years and note all home teams below are in CAPS:

2006
NFC: CHICAGO (- 3) 39, New Orleans 14
AFC: INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) 38, New England 34

2005
AFC: DENVER (- 3) 17, Pittsburgh 34
NFC: SEATTLE (-3.5) 34, Carolina 14

2004
NFC: PHILADELPHIA (- 5.5) 27, Atlanta 10
AFC: PITTSBURGH 27, New England (-3) 41

2003
NFC: PHILADELPHIA (- 4) 3, Carolina 14
AFC: NEW ENGLAND (- 3) 24, Indianapolis 14

2002
NFC: PHILADELPHIA (- 4) 10, Tampa Bay 27-10
AFC: OAKLAND (- 8) 41, Tennessee 24

As you can see, NFC home favorites have covered each of the last three years – Chicago, Seattle and Philadelphia all won rather lopsided games by 25, 20 and 17 points, respectively – but in all NFC home teams are 3-2 ATS in the last five Championship Games with the Eagles stubbing their toe in 2003 and 2002 against Carolina and Tampa Bay, respectively.

In the AFC, go back these past five seasons and you see that it’s a real mixed bag with home favorites Indianapolis (2006), New England (2003) and Oakland (2002) each getting the win/cover while the road-favored NE Patriots snagged the pointspread “W” at Pittsburgh back in ’04. The only upset in this conference championship round in the AFC the past five years was Pittsburgh’s triumph in Denver two years ago when the Steelers won three consecutive AFC Playoff games en route to their Super Bowl win against Seattle.

Add ‘em all up dating back five years and here’s the breakdown:

Betting Favorites are 7-3 ATS in this round for a sparkling .700 winning rate while home teams are 6-4 versus the vig overall.

It’s worth noting that seven of the last eight NFL Conference Championship Games have sported pointspreads of four points or less and there’s not been a single case in these last 10 games in which an underdog side covered the game but didn’t win outright – in short, the Las Vegas lines “have not mattered” in this regard as either the favorites have won by a large enough margin or the dogs – the 2005 Steelers, the 2003 Panthers and the 2002 Buccaneers – have won the “whole game”.

As a matter of fact, if you’d like to find the last time that both underdogs got the cash on NFL Championship Game Sunday, then just go back one more year – to the 2001 season – and you’ll see that in the AFC Championship Game it was New England who stunned 10-point home favorite Pittsburgh 24-17 while in the NFC Championship Game the visiting Philadelphia Eagles (+ 10 ½ points) slipped under the Las Vegas price tag en route to a 29-24 straight-up loss in St. Louis.

P.S., both dogs won outright in the 2000 season – in the AFC Baltimore bested six-point home favorite Oakland 16-3 while in the NFC title game it was the 2 ½-point home underdog New York Giants blasting the Minnesota Vikings 41-0.

So, the dogs have had “their day” in this NFL Championship Game Sunday but they just haven’t had it together in a few years now.

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Oddsmakers favor home teams



Oddsmaker Ken White, chief operating officer of Las Vegas Sports Consultants, predicts Super Bowl XLII will be a rerun of the NFL's 1997 Green Bay-New England mid-winter extravaganza, while Sin City bookmakers report the bulk of early wagering for this weekend's conference championships is split between a favorite and a dog.

Green Bay, a 60/1 long shot to win the Super Bowl when the 2007 regular season kicked off, is a touchdown pick over the surging wild card New York Giants in the NFC title game.

The Giants, winners of nine straight on the road, stunned Dallas 21-17 in one divisional matchup last weekend, while the Packers rallied from an early 14-0 deficit to crush Seattle 42-20 at snowy Lambeau Field in the other.

Unbeaten New England (17-0), a two touchdown pick, hosts San Diego in an affair between what White calls the two hottest teams in pro football in the AFC Championship.

The Pats ousted Jacksonville from the postseason 31-20 and the Chargers stunned 2007 Super Bowl champion Indianapolis 28-24.

Conference championships will be played in Green Bay and Foxboro on Sunday.

"We've already received a ton of money on the Packers," Hilton SuperBook supervisor Jeff Sherman said.

"The money's all been on the dog in the other game.

"We opened at 15 and we're now at 14."

Wynn and Harrah's both had the number at 14 1/2 Tuesday morning; Wynn also had Green Bay laying 7 1/2.

The Patriots are a huge 1/3 Hilton choice to win the Feb. 3 Super Bowl in Glendale, Ariz.

The Packers are a 4/1 second pick, with the Chargers 10/1 and the Giants assuming the long shot's mantle at 12/1.

"Straight up I think the two favorites will win," White said, cautioning, however, that "anything's possible" in light of Sunday's upsets of the Cowboys and Colts.

The oddsmaker says New York's best chance is "just to keep doing what the Giants have been doing."

"They're playing well, playing good D, showing depth and winning on the road," White declared.

"They totally outplayed Dallas Sunday.

"They made adjustments and the Cowboys didn't."

White pronounced Eli Manning "a big-time quarterback" and says the fact Peyton's little brother has the Giants in the conference championship speaks for itself.

"He had a good, not great, year," White said.

"He's playing with confidence.

"He completed 56 percent of his passes playing in a home stadium where it's difficult to complete passes if it's windy.

"Eli has what it takes.

"It's generally thought that it takes four years for a player to develop into a solid NFL quarterback and he's there.

"It's going to be a tough game, but I'd lean to the Giants with the points."

Straight up is another matter, especially with well-seasoned veteran Brett Favre calling the shots for Green Bay.

"The Packers are home and they've got Favre," White said.

"Last weekend we saw (Ryan) Grant has also given them a running game."

He expects weather could be a factor in Green Bay.

"It's going to be extremely cold, something like 10 degrees, which will be tough on both teams," White said.

"I think 7 may be a little high."

LVSC sent the total out at 44 and it continues to drop.

Stores on Tuesday morning had the over/under at between 41 1/2 and 42 1/2.

"If it's not windy I think the total is going the wrong way," said White, who correctly took the OVER in Green Bay's victory over Seattle.

A straight up Chargers triumph over the Brady Bunch isn't out of the question either, White believes, despite the double-digit point-spread.

The Pats have struggled at times lately while failing to cover, including against the Jaguars last weekend.

"The Pats need to step it up a notch this weekend," he said.

White notes the pressure is on New England, which is seeking to go 18-0 en route to a Super Bowl title and unblemished 19-0 slate.

"This is going to be a pressure-packed game," he observed.

"The longer the Pats go without losing, the more the pressure builds. I think San Diego will keep it close."

If they are to beat New England, the oddsmaker points to several things the Chargers must do.

"First they need to run the football," he said.

"They need to control the line of scrimmage and they need to convert on third down."

White expects to see both running back LaDanian Tomlinson and Philip Rivers on the field Sunday, though both left the game versus Indy with injuries.

"They're listed as probable and I expect them to be fine," he said.

"I think (Coach) Norv Turner made the right decision in taking them both out last weekend rather than risk further injury.

"I can't imagine either player not being ready to play in this one."

New England nipped San Diego last season for the right to face Indianapolis in the AFC Championship.

The Pats-Chargers total was shipped at 50, but also steadily was dropping. Books had it between 47 1/2 and 48 1/2 on Tuesday.

"The pros say go UNDER," White said.

White doesn't expect weather to be as much of a factor in Foxboro as in Green Bay.

"The storms are due Friday and Saturday," he said. "It should be fine by Sunday.

"It'll be cold, in the 20s. but I don't think it will affect the scoring."

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Green Bay vs the NFC East Division

Date Opponent Score SU Line ATS O/U Grass Indoor
11/29/2007 at Dallas 27-37 L +7 L O 51 N N
10/14/2007 vs. Washington 17-14 W -3 P U 40.5 Y N
09/16/2007 at NY Giants 35-13 W +3 W O 44 N N
09/09/2007 vs. Philadelphia 16-13 W +3 W U 41.5 Y N
10/02/2006 at Philadelphia 9-31 L +12 L U 50 Y N
11/27/2005 at Philadelphia 14-19 L +4 L U 41.5 Y N
12/05/2004 at Philadelphia 17-47 L +5.5 L O 48.5 Y N
10/31/2004 at Washington 28-14 W -1 W O 40.5 Y N
10/24/2004 vs. Dallas 41-20 W -4 W O 44.5 Y N
10/03/2004 vs. NY Giants 7-14 L -6 L U 45 Y N
01/11/2004 at Philadelphia 17-20 L +4 W U 43 Y N
11/10/2003 vs. Philadelphia 14-17 L -5 L U 43.5 Y N
10/20/2002 vs. Washington 30-9 W -7 W U 48 Y N
08/10/2002 at Philadelphia 13-20 L 0 L O 0 Y N
01/06/2002 at NY Giants 34-25 W -3 W O 37.5 N N
09/24/2001 vs. Washington 37-0 W -10.5 W U 41.5 Y N


Records Points
Straight Up: 8-8
Against the Spread: 8-7-1 Home PF - 162 (23.1)
Home PA - 87 (12.4)
Away PF - 194 (21.6)
Away PA - 226 (25.1)

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NY Giants vs the NFC North Division

Date Opponent Score SU Line ATS O/U Grass Indoor
12/02/2007 at Chicago 21-16 W -1 W U 39.5 Y N
11/25/2007 vs. Minnesota 17-41 L -7 L O 40 N N
11/18/2007 at Detroit 16-10 W -2.5 W U 48 N Y
09/16/2007 vs. Green Bay 13-35 L -3 L O 44 N N
11/12/2006 vs. Chicago 20-38 L -1.5 L O 37 N N
11/13/2005 vs. Minnesota 21-24 L -9.5 L U 46 N N
11/07/2004 vs. Chicago 21-28 L -8.5 L O 34.5 N N
10/31/2004 at Minnesota 34-13 W +6.5 W U 48.5 N Y
10/24/2004 vs. Detroit 13-28 L -7 L O 40 N N
10/03/2004 at Green Bay 14-7 W +6 W U 45 Y N
10/26/2003 at Minnesota 29-17 W +5.5 W O 44.5 N Y
11/10/2002 at Minnesota 27-20 W -1 W O 45 N Y
01/06/2002 vs. Green Bay 25-34 L +3 L O 37.5 N N
11/19/2001 at Minnesota 16-28 L +2 L U 45 N Y




Records Points
Straight Up: 6-8
Against the Spread: 6-8 Home PF - 130 (18.6)
Home PA - 228 (32.6)
Away PF - 157 (22.4)
Away PA - 111 (15.9)

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Packers hope to rattle Eli Manning
January 16, 2008


GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) -Green Bay Packers defensive players sound fairly confident in their ability to rattle New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning. Then again, so did the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and they're watching the playoffs from home.

Can the Packers force Manning to make mistakes in Sunday's NFC Championship game at Lambeau Field?

``Of course,'' Packers safety Nick Collins said. ``We've got to pressure on him, make him nervous in the pocket and stop the run and make them one-dimensional.''

But unlike Buccaneers cornerback Ronde Barber - who caused a minor media stir when he suggested Manning can ``be had'' before the teams' first-round playoff game two weeks ago - Collins said he isn't singling out Manning for criticism.

``Eli, everybody makes mistakes every now and then,'' Collins said. ``He's a great quarterback. He's hot right now. So we've got to take him out of his game plan and just go out there and put pressure on him and, hopefully, it'll turn out to be a great game for us.''

By showing more poise in the Giants' two playoff victories, Manning is just beginning to shed the ``inconsistent'' label that has made him a target for criticism in New York. With that in mind, Collins said pass-rush pressure would be critical for the Packers on Sunday.

``You can rattle any quarterback if you get pressure on him,'' Collins said. ``It's just if he's going to be poised, if he can take the pressure. They're going to rely on him. It's up to us to put pressure on him. He's been in the two playoff games, so he's got the feel of how the playoff games are going to be.''

Packers cornerback Charles Woodson said it's ``no secret'' that the Packers have to get to Manning and try to flush him out of the pocket.

``There's only a few quarterbacks that can play through the pressure situations,'' Woodson said. ``I think we have one of those quarterbacks. I think you look at a Tom Brady, that type of guy - but for the most part, across the board, if you can get to quarterbacks you can get them rattled, you can get them out of their game plan.''