Friday Trends and Indexes 01/04

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Friday, January 4

Good Luck on day #4 of 2008!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

NCAA FOOTBALL:
For the remaining schedule in the college bowl games, the trends and indexes of the NCAA Bowl Games will be posted in this thread.

[pm530]

Weekend Sports Preview

The NFL playoffs dominate the sports world this weekend but there’s plenty of other sports out there to bet on as well, with the college bowl season, NBA, college basketball, and the NHL all looking for some attention.

The NFL Wild Card weekend begins on Saturday when Washington takes on Seattle (-3.5) in the early game. The night game on Saturday is a regular-season rematch between Jacksonville and Pittsburgh (+3).

Sunday’s Wild Card action kicks off with the NY Giants at Tampa Bay (-3). Another regular-season rematch follows that game when Tennessee travels to San Diego (-9).

The bowl season begins to wind down in college football this weekend with only two bowl games on tap. On Saturday the International Bowl will be played at the Rogers Centre in Toronto between Rutgers and Ball State (+10.5). On Sunday the GMAC Bowl between Bowling Green and Tulsa (-4.5) will be contested at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama.

The NBA tips off the weekend on a busy Friday night that includes 12 games highlighted by Detroit at Toronto, Houston at Orlando, Miami at Dallas, Philadelphia at the Lakers and New Orleans at Golden State. Also on tap Friday night is Atlanta at Indiana, Charlotte at New Jersey, Memphis at Boston, Sacramento at Cleveland, Denver at Minnesota, New York at San Antonio and Washington at Milwaukee.

Things slow down on Saturday with only six NBA games on the schedule, starting with New Jersey at Atlanta, Boston at Detroit and Sacramento at Chicago. The rest of Saturday’s games include New York at Houston, New Orleans at Phoenix and Utah at Portland.
The NBA weekend concludes on Sunday with eight more contests, as Seattle takes on Washington, Cleveland heads north to Toronto, San Antonio visits the Clippers, Dallas drops in on Minnesota, Miami faces Memphis, Milwaukee travels to Charlotte, Philadelphia invades Denver and Indiana goes up against the Lakers.

In college hoops, nine of the Top 10 teams in the nation take to the court this weekend, starting with six in action on Saturday. The six games involving Top 10 teams on Saturday include No. 3 Kansas at Boston College, Pepperdine at No. 2 Memphis, No. 7 Georgetown at Rutgers, No. 5 UCLA at California, Minnesota at No. 6 Michigan State, and No. 4 Washington State at Washington.

On Sunday the Top 10 teams in action include No. 10 Marquette at West Virginia, Cornell at No. 9 Duke, and No. 1 North Carolina at No. 19 Clemson.

On the ice this weekend the NHL starts out with a quiet Friday night with four games on the schedule. Friday night’s four-pack includes Philadelphia at New Jersey, Ottawa at Buffalo, Carolina at Atlanta and Chicago at Anaheim.

The schedule explodes on Saturday night with 13 games on tap, with the best matchups being Detroit at Dallas, Minnesota at Nashville, Carolina at St. Louis, the Islanders at Colorado, Anaheim at Phoenix and Columbus at San Jose. The rest of the Saturday games include Washington at Montreal, Florida at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia at Toronto, New Jersey at Boston, Tampa Bay at Ottawa, the Rangers at Edmonton, and Calgary at Los Angeles.

On Sunday there are only two games on the ice, as Buffalo takes on Atlanta and Detroit rolls into Chicago.

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[pm530]

Six-pack for Friday

Observations from full day/night of sports............

-- First birdie of '08 PGA Tour was Stephen Ames, if you're keeping track of stuff like that.

-- They've had 25 inches of rain in Maui in the last month, making the golf course at Kapalua play very long.

-- This tournament has 31 guys; how rich are you if you turn down chance to play here, with no cut, and guarantee of very nice payoff to start your season in paradise?

-- Wonder what odds you could have gotten in August, had you wanted to bet on Kansas Jayhawks being champs of the Orange Bowl this season? Very big odds, I think.

-- Herb Sendek got big win, beating Oregon at home in his Pac-10 opener. Arizona State is an improved team.

-- Coaches need to take contract law classes; they break a contract like they have cups of coffee. These big buyouts are going to become more and more part of coaches' deals.

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[pm530]

Friday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but............

13) Why would anyone buy a ticket to see the '08 A's play? First they trade Dan Haren, now Nick Swisher, as they build a team that will contend when they open the Fremont ballpark in 2011. but for now, they're a nightmare.

12) Trading Swisher hurts; he isn't a great player, but he's a pretty damn good one, and he plays with a style and flair so you like rooting for him. This is like when they traded popular OF Eric Byrnes for the sullen Jay Payton. Not good.

11) They say Gio Gonzalez is good pitching prospect, but if he is such a great prospect, how come White Sox traded him, not once, but twice? 2008 is going to be a dismal summer if you root for the Green and Gold.

10) The Weather Channel and weather.com are for sale; it has been suggested they night go for as much as $5B......wow.

9) West Virginia did right thing and promoted Bill Stewart to head coach after Mountaineers whipped Oklahoma out at the Fiesta Bowl. It probably saved them some money, too, since a bigger name would have cost more than $800K a year.

8) When the NFL schedule comes out next spring, all twelve coaches who play the Bears need to write this 100 times.......

I will not punt to Devin Hester I will not punt to Devin Hester I will not punt to Devin Hester I will not punt to Devin Hester I will not punt to Devin Hester I will not punt to Devin Hester

7) One of reasons June Jones might leave Hawai'i for SMU is that Warriors' recruiting budget is 10% of most major college programs. What he has pulled off at Hawai'i is amazing.

6) Lesson Cam Cameron learned this week; When they fire a guy that hired you, time to start packing boxes. You're next.

5) You get the feeling Jerry Jones isn't real happy that he is going to lose a lot of his people this offseason, starting with Ireland the personnel guy, and maybe Sparano and Garrett, both of whom figure to become head coaches.

4) PGA Tour opened at Kapalua Thursday; not only did Phil Mickelson and Eldrick Wooods skip this event, commish of the Tour, Tim Finchem isn't there. Some players are annoyed.

3) The outdoor NHL game got a 2.6 rating on NBC Tuesday, the best rating NHL has gotten for regular season game since 1996, so they're understandably excited about that.

2) Wonder who backstabbing Tiki Barber is rooting for this weekend; his old team, the Giants are playing against brother Ronde's Buccaneers. Actually, no doubt he is rooting for the Bucs-- Giants' success without Barber is a welcomed thing.

1) Nothing is quite as uplifting as hearing this on your clock radio in the morning: "Good morning, it is 7:15am. The temp is one below zero; the wind chill is 18 below." Just great.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index

Wild Card Weekend


Washington at Seattle
The Redskins have been on a mission since the death of safety Sean Taylor and finished the regular season with four straight wins, including road victories over the Giants and Vikings in which a loss would have ended their postseason chances. They ended the season with a 21-point win -- the same number that Taylor wore -- over the Cowboys that was impressive even though Dallas rested a number of starters. Now Washington gets a chance to face the Seahawks in a rematch of the 2005 playoff contest, won by Seattle (20-10). But while the Seahawks were able to win 10 games this season, they played only one against a playoff team (Pittsburgh in Week 5) and lost 21-0. Facing a hot Washington team is a tough draw for Seattle and makes the Redskins the underdog pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Washington favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 5

Game 479-480: Washington at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 133.598; Seattle 132.917
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3 1/2); Over

Game 481-482: Jacksonville at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 136.373; Pittsburgh 138.635
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+2); Over

SUNDAY, JANUARY 6

Game 485-486: NY Giants at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 131.027; Tampa Bay 132.909
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 42
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3); Over

Game 487-488: Tennessee at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 129.151; San Diego 142.210
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 13; 37
Vegas Line: San Diego by 9; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-9); Under

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[pm530]

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet


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Saturday, January 5
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WASHINGTON (9 - 7) at SEATTLE (10 - 6) - 1/5/2008, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 28-11 ATS (+15.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
SEATTLE is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (11 - 5) at PITTSBURGH (10 - 6) - 1/5/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 6
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NY GIANTS (10 - 6) at TAMPA BAY (9 - 7) - 1/6/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (10 - 6) at SAN DIEGO (11 - 5) - 1/6/2008, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
SAN DIEGO is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
SAN DIEGO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home lined games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 2-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Wild Card Games
Short Sheet


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Saturday, January 5
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NFC Wild Card Round
TV: NBC
Washington at Seattle, 4:30 ET


Washington:
12-1 Under after outgaining prev opp by 200+ total yards
6-0 Under in playoff games

Seattle:
6-1 ATS as a home favorite
18-7 ATS in home games

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AFC Wild Card Round
TV: NBC
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh, 8:00 ET


Jacksonville:
5-0 ATS vs. Pittsburgh
10-0 Over L10 games

Pittsburgh:
1-4 ATS in home playoff games
18-5 Over in home games

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Sunday, January 6
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NFC Wild Card Round
TV: FOX
NY Giants at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET


NY Giants:
12-4 ATS in road games
12-3 ATS after scoring 35+ points last game

Tampa Bay:
13-4 Under at home off home loss
26-11 Under vs. NFC East

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AFC Wild Card Round
TV: CBS
Tennessee at San Diego, 8:00 ET


Tennessee:
11-2 Over after BB wins by 6 or less points
15-3 Over after scoring 17 points or less BB games

San Diego:
8-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points
7-1 ATS in home games

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[pm530]

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up
Wild Card Games


Saturday, January 5

Wild-Card Round Schedule
Saturday's games

Seattle beat Redskins 20-10 in playoffs here couple of years ago, but Washington is playing inspired ball, winning last four games after their QB went down (knee), their star safety was killed and their HOF coach blew a game by not knowing a rule. Seahawks won last five home games (5-0 vs spread) since losing to Saints at home in Week 6. Redskins are 4-2-1 vs spread as dog; they're 5-3 SU on road- this is their third road games in last four weeks. Hard to imagine vet Collins (no starts in last 10 years until start due to Campbell's injury three weeks ago) winning playoff game on foreign soil, but strangers things have happened.

Jacksonville came to sloppy Heinz Field three weeks ago, won by 29-22 over Steelers, outrushing Pittsburgh 225-111; Jags had five sacks in that game, held Pitt to 2.8 ypa. In last four games before mailing last week's loss in, Jags had run ball 139 times for a total of 193 yards/game. Two of Steelers' three TDs in that game were on drives that started in Jax territory. There is concern that Pitt has slipped, losing three of last four games. Hard to imagine that Steelers are home dog in playoff game against warm weather side

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[pm530]

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL


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Tips and Trends
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Wild Card Weekend


Saturday, January 5

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks
(NBC | 4:30 PM ET)

Seattle is one of the best home teams in the NFL, going 7-1 SU at Qwest Field and 6-2 ATS. The Seahawks have won their last 5 home games by an average of 20 points. Two of their three losses to end the regular season were both on the road with the division already clinched. Seattle beat Washington 2 years ago in the playoffs as a 9.5-point favorite, 20-10. BIG EDGE: SEAHAWKS
The Redskins have been emotionally charged since Pro Bowl safety Sean Taylor was fatally shot just prior to Week 13, going 4-1 SU & ATS with 4 straight wins. All 4 wins came against teams either in the playoffs or battling for playoff spots, as Washington helped knock both Chicago and Minnesota out of contention. Two of those wins also came on the road. EDGE: REDSKINS
Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Seahawks are 6-2 in their last 8 games against NFC opponents.
Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in January.
The UNDER is 6-2 in Washington's last 8 games in January.


Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers
(NBC | 8 PM ET)

This is one of two Wild Card rematches from the regular season, with the Jaguars beating the Steelers 29-22 in Pittsburgh back on December 16th. Jacksonville has covered the last 5 meetings and 7 of 8, taking a 22-7 lead into the 4th quarter of the last game between the teams before Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger rallied his team back. EDGE: JAGUARS
Jaguars are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Jaguars are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Steelers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
The home team is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings.
The OVER is 9-0-1 in Jacksonville's last 10 games and 16-5-1 in the last 22.
The OVER is 13-3 in Pittsburgh's last 16 games in January.
The OVER is 9-2 in Pittsburgh's last 11 playoff games.
The UNDER is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.


Sunday, January 6

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (FOX | 1 PM ET)

Tampa Bay was one of the best home teams in the NFC this season, going 6-2 both SU & ATS. One of the losses was 24-23 to Jacksonville and the other came in the regular-season finale against Carolina in a meaningless game. EDGE: BUCS
New York finished tied with Indy and Dallas as the 2nd-best road team in the NFL behind New England. The Giants were 7-1 away from home and their only loss came against the Cowboys in Week 1. Since then, they have won 7 straight, including a trip to London in Week 8 vs. Miami. That is the only road game they did not cover since losing to Dallas. EDGE: GIANTS
Tampa Bay QB Jeff Garcia will try to defeat the Giants in the playoffs with his 3rd different team after beating them last year as an Eagle and as a 49er in 2003, leading San Francisco back from a 24-point deficit en route to a 39-38 victory. EDGE: BUCS
Giants are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. NFC opponents.
Bucs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. NFC opponents.
Bucs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. teams with a winning record.


Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers (CBS | 4:30 PM ET)

This is the other rematch of a regular-season meeting, with San Diego rallying back to win 23-17 in overtime at Tennessee back on December 9th. There is a lot of bad blood remaining from that game that saw Chargers defensive star Shawne Merriman take a shot on his knee while there was also a horse collar tackle on Tennessee RB Chris Brown. The Titans blew a 14-3 lead in the 4th quarter and remain bitter. "I don't think anybody's happy about the way that game ended,'' Tennessee DE Kyle Vanden Bosch said. ''We take a lead, we'd like to be able to finish a game. We give them credit. They made big plays when they had to to beat us. At the same time, there was definitely some unfinished business when they came to Nashville.'' SLIGHT EDGE: TITANS
Tennessee QB Vince Young is listed as day-to-day with a quad injury, but head coach Jeff Fisher is optimistic that he will play. "I can't really say right now if Vince is going to play this week,'' Fisher said. ''I have a good feeling he'll be back on the practice field, and we'll see how he goes.'' EDGE: CHARGERS
Chargers are 6-0 SU & ATS in their last 6 games.
Titans are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games.

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[pm530]

College Football - Dunkel Index

NCAAF
Dunkel Index


SATURDAY, JANUARY 5

Game 483-484: Ball State vs. Rutgers
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 83.401; Rutgers 91.494
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 8; 55
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 10; 60
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+10); Under


SUNDAY, JANUARY 6

Game 489-490: Bowling Green vs. Tulsa
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 83.544; Tulsa 84.741
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 1; 69
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 5; 76
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+5); Under


MONDAY, JANUARY 7

Game 491-492: Ohio State vs. LSU
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 109.014; LSU 112.040
Dunkel Line: LSU by 3; 54
Vegas Line: LSU by 6; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+6); Over

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[pm530]

College Football – Long Sheet

NCAAF
Long Sheet


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Saturday, January 5
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BALL ST (7 - 5) vs. RUTGERS (7 - 5) - 1/5/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALL ST is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, January 6
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BOWLING GREEN (8 - 4) vs. TULSA (9 - 4) - 1/6/2008, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, January 7
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OHIO ST (11 - 1) vs. LSU (11 - 2) - 1/7/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LSU is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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[pm530]

College Football – Short Sheet

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Saturday, January 5th

International Bowl
Toronto, Canada
TV: ESPN2
Ball State vs. Rutgers, 12:00 ET


Ball State:
9-1 ATS off an ATS loss
6-1 ATS off a win by 6 or less points

Rutgers:
10-4 Over off BB conference games
4-1 Over playing with 2+ days rest


Sunday, January 6th

GMAC Bowl
Mobile, Alabama
TV: ESPN
Bowling Green vs. Tulsa, 8:00 ET

Bowling Green:
19-8 ATS off a home win by 17+ points
16-6 ATS after allowing 3 or less first-half points

Tulsa:
0-6 ATS after allowing 37+ points
0-8 ATS after having 475+ total yards


Monday, January 7th

BCS Championship Game
New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: FOX
Ohio State vs. LSU, 8:00 ET

Ohio State:
12-1 ATS off an Under
10-2 ATS off a road game

LSU:
1-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
1-5 ATS off an ATS loss

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[pm530]

College Football – Write up

NCAAF
Write-up

2007-2008 Bowl Analysis
Bowl game for January 5, ‘08
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Saturday, January 5

#30-- International Bowl, Toronto, 1/5

Ball State allowed 521 rushing yards to Navy (but won the game 34-31 in OT); they gave up 298 to Central Michigan (lost 58-38), 222 to Western Kentucky, 324 in 28-17 loss at Illinois and 214 in win vs Toledo. Cardinals have an excellent +19 turnover ratio; in two games, Ball was even in turnovers- they were plus in other 11, and you just don't see that happen much. However, if they can't turn Rutgers over, they are going to give up 300 rushing yards, and they aren't going to win. Ball lost 41-40 at Nebraska; they covered three of four as an underdog this season.

Rutgers is probably disappointed to be in this bowl after being big shots LY, but coaches are also preaching that most teams in country are done playing, while Knights aren't. Don't like Teel, Rutgers' QB; his backup Lovelace is runner who could do some damage here. Bottom line on this game is that Rutgers will try to run ball down Cardinals' throats; if they protect the ball, let Rice run wild, they're going to score lot of points here. Navy ran ball for over 500 yards against this team. Rice has to have really big eyes going into this contest.

Nothing says Happy New Year like a bowl game in Toronto; the Ball State rush defense is going to get so much Rice thrown at it they're going to think they're in Vietnam. Key to game is Ball St creating turnovers, getting Rutgers in long yardage situations so Teel has to throw ball-- that is Rutgers' weak point. If Rice is allowed to run amok, Cardinals are going back to Muncie losers. I'm not crazy about laying double digits in second-tier bowl, so if you must invest in this, take a shot at the over.

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[pm530]

College Football – Tips & Trends

NCAAF
Tips and Trends


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Tips and Trends
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SATURDAY, JANUARY 5TH

International Bowl - Toronto, ON
Rutgers vs. Ball State (ESPN2 | 12 PM ET)

Ball State is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games overall.
Rutgers is 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.


SUNDAY, JANUARY 6TH

GMAC Bowl - Mobile, AL
Tulsa vs. Bowling Green (ESPN | 8 PM ET)

Tulsa is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games overall.
The UNDER is 9-4 in Bowling Green’s last 13 games on grass.
The OVER is 9-4 in Bowling Green’s last 13 non-conference games.


MONDAY, JANUARY 7TH

BCS National Championship - New Orleans, LA
#1 Ohio State vs. #2 Louisiana State (FOX | 8 PM ET)

Last year, the extended time off (51 days) between games really cooled off the previously unbeaten Buckeyes, and insiders feel that same problem will recur against the SEC’s best team. The Tigers have the most NFL talent on their roster and will be able to make good use of the break to heal their wounds, just like USC did in last year’s Rose Bowl. That’s bad news for the Buckeyes and could very well lead to another ugly title game.
Ohio State is 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Ohio State is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 games overall.
LSU is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games on turf.
LSU is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
Underdog is 6-3 SU in BCS title games, winning 4 of last 5.

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[pm530]

College Football – Preview, January 5

NCAAF
Preview


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International Bowl preview: Ball State vs Rutgers
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Saturday, January 5

International Bowl
Who: Ball State (7-5) vs. Rutgers (7-5)
When: Jan. 5, 2008
Where: Rogers Center, Toronto, Ontario
Line: Rutgers -10, O/U 59 ½

In the world of college football, one thing is inevitable when you overachieve: other programs are going to start taking a good look at hiring your coach.

Such is the case with both the Ball State Cardinals and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, who have been hearing rumors about their coaches leaving ever since the regular season ended. The two 7-5 teams will meet in the second annual International Bowl in Toronto on Jan. 5.

Ball State is playing in its first bowl game in 11 years, one of the goals of the program when head coach Brady Hoke signed on five years ago. For Rutgers, it’s more about consistency. Head coach Greg Schiano has the Scarlet Knights headed to their third straight bowl game, a big step for a program that went a hapless 1-5 in Big East play just three seasons ago.

As of early December, both coaches had denied they were going anywhere and until that changes, their focus will be on the trip north in January.

Rutgers is favored by 10 points and it’s not much of a surprise considering Ball State is 0-3 against teams from BCS conferences this season. However, Ball State managed to cover the spread in two of those games and its most memorable game of the year might just be a 41-40 loss in Lincoln against Nebraska. The Cardinals were underdogs of 24 ½ points in that late September game in which Nebraska needed a late touchdown to pull out the win.

The Huskers couldn’t find a way to slow BSU’s pass-happy offense when Nate Davis threw for 422 yards and three touchdowns. Wide receiver Dante Love reeled in 214 yards and one TD in that game and the Cards showed why they are the No. 21-ranked passing offense in the country.

Love finished the season at No. 8 in the country with 1,226 receiving yards overall, but he might just be facing his toughest test of the campaign in January. Rutgers owns the No. 2 defense against the pass this season, allowing a mere 160.6 yards per game. The Knights have been even stingier over their past three games when they allowed just 150 passing yards per game.

The offense is the real strength of Rutgers though, which ranked 26th in the nation in yards per game with 437.2. The Knights were held to fewer than 20 points just twice all season – in back-to-back losses to Connecticut and West Virginia – and what makes them so hard to defend is their balance.

Running back Ray Rice has been one of the most overlooked players in the nation for the past two seasons. He ranks No. 3 in the country in rushing and has seven more yards and five more touchdowns than Heisman Trophy finalist Darren McFadden.

Rice plows through defenses and can turn on the jets when needed and he helps set up a dangerous passing game led by quarterback Mike Teel. Teel finished second in the Big East with 2,844 yards passing this season and he was helped out by the No. 2 and 3 leading receivers in the Big East, Kenny Britt and Tiquan Underwood.

What might just give Ball State a chance to compete with Rutgers’ potent attack is a ball-hungry defense that has 18 interceptions this season. Those picks helped the Cardinals finish third in the country in turnover margin behind only Florida Atlantic and Kansas.

Rutgers and Ball State have faced one common opponent this season and both came away with a victory. The Cardinals beat Navy in overtime on Sept. 15, 34-31 while the Scarlet Knights pummeled the Midshipmen the week before 41-24.

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