Announcement

**pm530** · 12-08-2007, 05:30 AM

Six-pack for Saturday

Six questions to consider for the upcoming NFL weekend

-- Can the Steelers hand New England their first loss? They seem to have best chance, of Pats' last four opponents.

-- Can Buffalo make Dolphins 0-13? Will the old Dolphins pop champagne if the Fish finish a perfect 0-16?

-- How healthy is Brett Favre? Big question for the Packers.

-- Can the Lions stop their freefall and compete with the Cowboys at home? They're still in the playoff race.

-- How do the Ravens bounce back from their tough loss to New England? Can Kyle Boller play that well again?

-- Can Arizona keep some suspense in NFC West with win at Seattle? A win would give them tiebreakers over Seattle, since they beat them at home in Week 2.

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**pm530** · 12-08-2007, 05:31 AM

Saturday's List of 13: Random thoughts for a Saturday

13) Washington Huskies gave Tyrone Willingham the "go to a bowl next year or we’re hiring Jim Mora Jr" ultimatum this week. Huskies are stuck trying to rebuild in a tough league.

12) Redskins are already up against it for 2008; no guarantee QB Campbell’s injured knee will be ready for start of the '08 season. He really progressed this season, but this has turned into nightmare second half of season for Washington.

11) Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe turned down Arkansas, the same week Boise State’s Chris Peterson turned down UCLA- expectations at some of these schools are so ridiculous, that quality guys won’t leave less prominent, more secure jobs to go there.

10) No way Jason Kidd went on strike; who would turn down a chance to pad their stats against the Knicks?

9) If you believe the New York City media, Joba Chamberlain in part Roger Clemens, part Rollie Fingers, the next greatest thing. Problem is, he has zero major league starts, so no one really knows.

8) Scumweasel agent Scott Boras scored again with Andruw Jones signing (4% of $36M is a cool $1.4M), also by signing Jacoby Ellsbury, the highly-touted Red Sox rookie.

7) It is amazing how quickly Miami Heat went from the NBA champs to a 4-14 team; they're hideous.

6) Figuring Jose Guillen just signed contract for $12M a year, his 15-game suspension is going to cost him $1,111,111.11.

5) Why does there seem to be no frontrunner for Michigan job, now that Les Miles is out of the picture (well, he could still buy out of his LSU deal for $1.2M, it is said). Is Miles still a candidate?

4) Dennis Franchione got paid $4.4M to go away from Texas A&M; wish someone would pay me to go away- they would not have to ask twice.

3) How cool are Richmond’s football helmets? Blue helmet with a red spider-- very nice.

2) If I run the Rams, the first thing I do in free agency this winter is overpay guard Alan Faneca to come play for Rams, just like they paid Adam Timmerman to leave Green Bay in late 90’s. Offensive line is the foundation of the team.

1) Very bad day for Navy football, as Paul Johnson took the Georgia Tech job. Johnson went 11-1 against Army and Air Force, and also beat Notre Dame. He will be missed.

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**pm530** · 12-08-2007, 05:33 AM

National Football League - Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 9

Game 103-104: Carolina at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 124.170; Jacksonville 141.474
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 17 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 10 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-10 1/2); Over

Game 105-106: Dallas at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 141.921; Detroit 128.456
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 13 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Dallas by 10 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-10 1/2); Over

Game 107-108: Miami at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 122.926; Buffalo 127.882
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 5; 33
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 7; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+7); Under

Game 109-110: NY Giants at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 130.140; Philadelphia 134.217
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 4; 48
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3); Over

Game 111-112: Oakland at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 122.911; Green Bay 139.588
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 17; 48 1/2
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 10; 42
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-10); Over

Game 113-114: Pittsburgh at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 136.312; New England 151.073
Dunkel Line: New England by 15; 52
Vegas Line: New England by 10 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-10 1/2); Over

Game 115-116: San Diego at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 136.793; Tennessee 134.617
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2; 45
Vegas Line: Pick; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego; Over

Game 117-118: St. Louis at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 123.792; Cincinnati 128.581
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 5; 44
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 6 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+6 1/2); Under

Game 119-120: Tampa Bay at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 129.581; Houston 131.725
Dunkel Line: Houston by 2; 38
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3); Under

Game 121-122: Arizona at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 128.479; Seattle 131.995
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 3 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Seattle by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+7); Over

Game 123-124: Minnesota at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 136.034; San Francisco 121.080
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 15; 44
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 8 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-8 1/2); Over

Game 125-126: Cleveland at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 128.758; NY Jets 130.902
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 2; 46
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+3 1/2); Under

Game 127-128: Kansas City at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 125.780; Denver 130.987
Dunkel Line: Denver by 5; 42
Vegas Line: Denver by 6 1/2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+6 1/2); Over

Game 129-130: Indianapolis at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 143.923; Baltimore 126.856
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 17; 47
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 9; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-9); Over

MONDAY, DECEMBER 10

Game 131-132: New Orleans at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 130.438; Atlanta 123.501
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 7; 42
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 4 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-4 1/2); Under

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**pm530** · 12-08-2007, 05:33 AM

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet

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Sunday, December 9
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CAROLINA (5 - 7) at JACKSONVILLE (8 - 4) - 12/9/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CAROLINA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 70-44 ATS (+21.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (11 - 1) at DETROIT (6 - 6) - 12/9/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
DALLAS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
DETROIT is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (0 - 12) at BUFFALO (6 - 6) - 12/9/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 23-42 ATS (-23.2 Units) in December games since 1992.
MIAMI is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 5-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 4-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (8 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 7) - 12/9/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 116-83 ATS (+24.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 44-22 ATS (+19.8 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 4-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 4-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (4 - 8) at GREEN BAY (10 - 2) - 12/9/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
GREEN BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
GREEN BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (9 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 0) - 12/9/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 115-84 ATS (+22.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 40-21 ATS (+16.9 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 74-50 ATS (+19.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 51-27 ATS (+21.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (7 - 5) at TENNESSEE (7 - 5) - 12/9/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (3 - 9) at CINCINNATI (4 - 8) - 12/9/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (8 - 4) at HOUSTON (5 - 7) - 12/9/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (6 - 6) at SEATTLE (8 - 4) - 12/9/2007, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (6 - 6) at SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 9) - 12/9/2007, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (7 - 5) at NY JETS (3 - 9) - 12/9/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CLEVELAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (4 - 8) at DENVER (5 - 7) - 12/9/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
DENVER is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DENVER is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-2 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (10 - 2) at BALTIMORE (4 - 8) - 12/9/2007, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 31-50 ATS (-24.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
BALTIMORE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against AFC South division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 10
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NEW ORLEANS (5 - 7) at ATLANTA (3 - 9) - 12/10/2007, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 66-91 ATS (-34.1 Units) in dome games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
ATLANTA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**pm530** · 12-08-2007, 05:34 AM

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet

Sunday, December 9th

Carolina at Jacksonville, 1:00 EST
Carolina: 17-6 ATS away in December
Jacksonville: 7-0 Over off a road game

Dallas at Detroit, 1:00 EST
Dallas: 10-2 Over as a road favorite
Detroit: 18-7 ATS off 3+ ATS losses

Miami at Buffalo, 1:00 EST
Miami: 1-8 ATS vs. division opponents
Buffalo: 17-6 ATS at home off a win as an underdog

NY Giants at Philadelphia, 1:00 EST
NY Giants: 10-2 ATS away vs. conference opponents
Philadelphia: 6-0 Over playing with same-season revenge

Oakland at Green Bay, 1:00 EST
Oakland: 1-10 ATS in December
Green Bay: 9-2 ATS this season

Pittsburgh at New England, 1:00 EST
Pittsburgh: 15-5 Over off an Under
New England: 14-5 ATS playing on artificial turf

San Diego at Tennessee, 1:00 EST
San Diego: 6-0 Over after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Tennessee: 17-6 ATS off a division home win

St. Louis at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST
St. Louis: 34-17 Over vs. non-conference opponents
Cincinnati: 1-5 ATS after scoring 14 or less points

Tampa Bay at Houston, 1:00 EST
Tampa Bay: 9-2 Under off BB wins
Houston: 1-5 ATS off a loss

Arizona at Seattle, 4:05 EST
Arizona: 15-6 Over in road games
Seattle: 1-9 ATS revenging a loss as a road favorite

Minnesota at San Francisco, 4:05 EST
Minnesota: 16-6 Over off 3+ games scoring 25+ points
San Francisco: 0-6 ATS off a road game

Cleveland at NY Jets, 4:15 EST
Cleveland: 9-2 ATS off a road game
NY Jets: 12-4 Over off a division game

Kansas City at Denver, 4:15 EST
Kansas City: 8-1 ATS playing with revenge
Denver: 1-9 ATS vs. division opponents

Indianapolis at Baltimore, 8:15 EST NBC
Indianapolis: 18-6 ATS off 3+ wins
Baltimore: 0-6 ATS vs. AFC South opponents

Monday, December 3rd

New Orleans at Atlanta, 8:30 EST ESPN
New Orleans: 9-2 ATS away vs. conference opponents
Atlanta: 4-13 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points

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**pm530** · 12-08-2007, 05:35 AM

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up

Week 14 NFL schedule

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Sunday, December 9
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Bears (5-7) @ Redskins (5-7) -- Washington lost last four games- they led three of them at half, and outgained Bucs 412-192 in the fourth loss. Shaky game management has players doubting their coaches. Short work week for Skins, who attended funeral down in Florida Monday and practiced just once before this game, vs a Chicago team that covered the last four games that followed loss. Odd that 5-7 team has lost consecutive games only once in 2007. Underdog covered last three series meetings. Redskins are -11 in turnovers their last six games (6-17).

Panthers (5-7) @ Jaguars (8-4) — Jax outgained Colts 411-342 LW, but fell short, with eight penalties and 11-yard deficit in field position. Jags won four of last five home games, with wins by
6-20-7-22 pts. Carolina snapped five-game skid last week, beating 3-9 49ers; they lost last two road games 20-7/31-17, after winning first four away games. Panthers are 10-6 vs. spread in their last 16 games as double digit underdog. Jaguars failed to cover last six tries as double digit favorite. Jags averaged 7.6+ yards/ pass attempt in each of last three games- that’s good. The last four Jacksonville games all went over the total, but seven of last nine Carolina games stayed under.

Cowboys (11-1) @ Lions (6-6) — Two teams going in opposite directions; Cowboys won last six games (5-1 vs spread)- they had three extra days to rest/prep for this, after beating Pack last week. Pokes have 20 TDs on last 50 drives, averaging 8+ yards/pass attempt in four of last five games. Lions lost last four games (0-4 vs spread), giving up 79 points in last two (outscored 79-26 in first half of those games). Detroit has just four takeaways in last three games; they’re 1-5 this season if they don‘t win turnover battle. Dallas covered five of last seven as road favorite, Lions one of five as dog in non-division games this year.

Giants (8-4) @ Eagles (5-7) —Philly lost first meeting 16-3 (-2.5) in Week 4; Eagles committed 15 penalties for 132 yds, Giants sacked McNabb 12 times, in fierce defensive struggle. Eagles gained 32+ yards/drive in four of six games, but haven’t averaged 30+ in any games since; they’re -10 in turnovers last five games. Giants won their last five games away from home rallying late at Chicago last week; still think they’d be better off letting Eli run the no-huddle whole game. Giants covered 12 of last 17 division games. Eagles covered just three of last nine home games within division. Five of last six Eagle games went over the total. McNabb said to be returning for this divisional tilt.

Dolphins (0-12) @ Bills (6-6) — Miami now at point where teams play harder against them, since they don’t want to be first victim of winless team; Fish yet to score offensive TD in three starts by Beck (0 for 28, counting); they’re getting killed in field position, facing double digit starting point deficits in each of their last six games. Bills covered six of last eight as divisional home favorite; Miami is 2-11-1 vs spread as divisional road dog. Buffalo won first meeting 13-10 four weeks ago (-3), in game Miami led 3-0 at half- they outrushed Buffalo 143-63, but fell apart late, in what was Lemon’s last start. Bills are 3-3 at home, with wins by 3-5-12 points; first Miami game was only time they’ve been fave in 2007.

Raiders (4-8) @ Packers (10-2) — Oakland travels off consecutive division wins; they ran ball for 328 yards in their last two games, scoring six TDs on 21 drives, after scoring five TDs on previous 71 drives. Packers had three extra days to rest/prep for this after loss at Dallas; Favre returned to practice, elbow is said to be OK. Raiders are 2-4 on road, with losses by 3-14-4-7 pts (4-2 as road dog). Pack is 5-1 at home, 2-1-1 against spread as a home favorite, winning by 3-7-3-34-14 pts. Oakland gave rookie QB Russell part of second quarter to get feet wet last week- this will be his first road action. Green Bay is 3-11-1 vs. the spread in last 15 tries as double digit fave; Raiders covered two of last nine non-divisional road games. Favre's elbow could cause Pack to run more.

Steelers (9-3) @ Patriots (12-0) —Pats struggled to beat Eagles, Ravens last two weeks; after giving up 6.1 yards/pass attempt or less in first eight games, NE allowed 7.0+ ypa in three of last four games, as injuries of defense expose slowish subs, but still, they are freakin’ 12-0, beating them is no simple task, especially for Steeler team that is just 2-3 on road, with losses to Arizona, Jets, Denver- they’ll be glad to just to get on dry field after playing last two games in quagmires. Steelers are dog for first time this year. Pats are 5-0 at home (4-1 vs. spread, +12 in turnovers), with wins by 24-31-17-45-3 pts. Seven of last eight Patriot games went over the total.

Chargers (7-5) @ Titans (7-5) -- Bolts won last two games, six of last eight, as they take control of AFC West; they're 2-4 on road but lost last six non-division away games, while Tennessee lost six of last eight non-division games. Titans ended its three-game skid last week, just when Haynesworth came back fromn injury, no coincidence. Six of seven Charger wins are by 11+ pts; they're 1-2 in games decided by seven or less points- the Titans are 4-2. Five of six San Diego road games went over the total, as did last four Titan games. Tennessee won four of last five at home.

Rams (3-9) @ Cincinnati (4-8) -- In five outdoor games this year, Rams scored 3-7-3-6-13 points. Bengals are 3-0 when they allow less than 24 points (Ravens twice, Titans), 1-8 when they don't; Rams won last two road games, at Saints, 49ers, after losing first four, by 21-28-19-27 points. Hard to back losing dome team that is playing in cold weather game, but Rams have won three of their last four after hideous 0-8 start. Cincy covered just one of their last five as favorite; they're 1-4-1 vs spread as home favorite vs non-divisional foes. Rams covered five of last 15 against AFC.

Buccaneers (8-4) @ Texans (7-5) -- Tampa won, covered four in a row, allowing 13.3 ppg; this is their fifth straight road game in a dome (2-2 in first four, won last two). Bucs are 4-2 in close games (decided by seven or less pts); they've won field position battle last six games, are +10 in turnovers in last four. Texans are 3-2 at home. Texans are 5-0 when they allow 21 or less points. 2-5 when they don't; Bucs scored 21+ in only two of six road games. Bucs covered one of last nine on road vs AFC. Texans have Thursday game vs Broncos on deck (Shanahan's son is an assistant with the Texans). Under is 3-1-1 in last five Houston games.

Cardinals (6-6) @ Seahawks (8-4) -- Seattle won, covered four in a row; they're 5-1 at home (4-1-1 as home fave) winning by 14-3-7- 27-24 points. Hawks lost 23-20 at Arizona in Week 2, fumbling in last 2:00 when they had ball in Cardinal territory with score tied. Arizona won three of last four games, losing in OT at home to the 49ers; they're 2-4 on road, 3-1-1 as road dog, with losses by 3-3-2-7 pts- in last four games, Cardinals scored 31-35-31-27 (13 TDs on 50 drives). Arizona covered seven of last nine road games, but Seattle covered six of last eight division home games, so this is good spot for both sides. Four of last five Arizona road games went over the total.

Vikings (6-6) @ 49ers (3-9) -- Minnesota ran ball for 228-127-216 yards in winning, covering last three games (29-22/41-17/42-10); Vikings are 1-2 on grass this season, 3-0 as favorite- in their last three games, Vikes averaged 9.3/7.8/8.4 yards/pass attempt, as young QB Jackson matures. 49ers lost nine of last ten games, are 1-4 at home (1-3 as home dog), losing last four by 20-2-21-4 pts. Only once in last four games have 49ers averaged as much as 19 yards per drive, as Dilfer's anemic offense awaits return of Smith. Viking defense scored three TDs on road vs Giants in Week 12, they could do simiar thing here. Five of last six Minnesota games went over the total.

Browns (7-5) @ Jets (3-9) -- Cleveland is not great defensive team, giving up 27+ points in four of last five games, but Browns have covered six of last seven; they're 0-5 if they do not win turnover battle. Loss at Arizona last week was damaging; playing a night game on carpet against Jets team that won two of last three since their bye is dicey but truth is, two of three Jet wins are vs an 0-12 Miami team; they're 2-4 at home. Browns are 5-0 as favorite this year, 4-0 after a loss. Jets covered just four of last 12 off a win. In LY's 20-13 Cleveland win, Jets ran kick back for TD, lost chance at tying TD when receiver was ruled out of bounds at side of the end zone, exact same scenario that Browns had at end last week.

Chiefs (4-8) @ Broncos (5-7) -- KC is 0-5 since its bye, scoring an average of 12 ppg in last four- they lost 27-11 at home to Denver in Week 10 (-4), getting outrsuhed 141-67, turning ball over four times (-3). Chiefs been outscored in second half in each of their last seven games (108-45). Denver lost four of last six games; in last two games, they allowed 71 points- they're 3-3 at home, with wins by 3-3-14 points. Broncos covered just one of last ten as a home favorite, hard to believe, while Chiefs covered five of last six AFC West road games. Last five Denver games went over.

Colts (10-2) @ Ravens (4-8) -- Baltimore gave maximum effort last week vs Patriots, now have hated Colts (moved out of town back in 80's, in middle of night) coming in with a 5-1 road record, with wins by 2-6-22-24-18 (loss at San Diego). Ravens lost last six in a row (1-5 vs spread), are 3-3 at home, beating Cards, Jets, Rams- their home losses are by 14-3-3 points. Seems odd that Colts won here 14-5 in playoffs LY, as 3.5-point dog, now Ravens can't win a game. Indy basically clinched division last week, but big prize is first round bye, so they still need to keep pedal on gas. Ravens are 1-4 vs spread as an underdog this season.

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Monday, December 10
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Saints (5-7) @ Falcons (3-9) -- Michael Vick sentencing during the day will hang over this game; Atlanta lost last three games, has a new starting QB (Redman played at Louisville) and has lost three games in row, allowing 31-31-28 points. Saints won first meeting 22-15 in Week 7 (-9), outscoring Atlanta 15-3 in second half. Last week, Saints gave up winning TD with 0:14 left, after a botched reverse with 3:30 left, when Saints had ball near midfield leading 23-20, bad loss for the coach to stomach. NO actually won three of last four road games; their win vs Falcons is only one of their five wins that was by less than 11 points. In their last three tilts, Atlanta has been outscored 56-13 in first half.

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**pm530** · 12-08-2007, 05:37 AM

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL

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Tips and Trends
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Sunday, December 9

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (CBS | 1 PM ET)

The Bills come into this contest second to last in total offense (averaging just 15 points per game) and total defense in the NFL. Indeed, Buffalo’s run defense has been a huge problem over the last four games, giving up 143, 127, 124 and 80 rushing yards, which could be a real problem against this run-oriented Miami offensive unit. EDGE: DOLPHINS
Some league insiders are reporting the Miami players and coaches were actually looking ahead this game as they see this as potentially being their only shot a win on their season. Miami players are also eager to avenge their 13-10 home defeat against the Bills this season. EDGE: DOLPHINS
Miami will start rookie QB John Beck against Buffalo, and he is fresh off a terrible 3-interception performance against the Jets. Beck has played three games and has not produced a single touchdown for Miami this season. EDGE: BILLS
Dolphins are 5-13-2 ATS in their last 20 games against the AFC.
Dolphins are 0-6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Bills are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games on turf.
Bills are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite.

St. Louis Rams at Cincinnati Bengals (CBS | 1 PM ET)

The Bengals are headed to their 16th non-winning season in 17 years. They failed to win back-to-back games again last week at Pittsburgh and face just one team with a winning record over the next four weeks. "I think sometimes some of our problem is we don't always have a team attitude," Cincinnati DE Justin Smith said. "I think the best teams really don't care about any of that (statistical rankings). They care about winning. And we're not there yet." SLIGHT EDGE: RAMS
St. Louis QB Marc Bulger suffered a setback in his recovery from a concussion and may be forced to miss this game. Bulger was expected to start, and backup Gus Frerotte is out with a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder. That could mean third-stringer Brock Berlin could make his first NFL start - he has not attempted a pass in any regular-season game during his career. BIG EDGE: BENGALS
Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against a losing team.
Bengals are 7-19-1 ATS in the last 27 home games against a losing road team.
Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against a losing team.
The UNDER is 6-0 in St. Louis' last 6 games on grass.

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (FOX | 1 PM ET)

Dallas comes into this contest beating their opponents by a 33-20 average and have extra time to prepare after their 37-27 win over Green Bay last Thursday night. To make matters worse, the Lions are appear to be in a must-win situation as one of three 6-6 teams battling five 5-7 teams for one Wild Card spot. EDGE: COWBOYS
League insiders are reporting that Detroit star WR Roy Williams could miss the rest of the regular season because of a sprained knee. This will likely put more pressure on Detroit's other young, inexperience receivers. EDGE: COWBOYS
Some league insiders are not surprised by the recent troubles of the Lions, as they have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Detroit’s Jon Kitna has been sacked 50 times and the running game has games of 56, 39, 68, 25, 1 and minus-18 yards rushing over the last 5 games. EDGE: COWBOYS
Detroit comes into this game with the second-worst pass defense in the NFL, allowing 269 yards per game. Team insiders are reporting that this week they will also be without the services of reserve safety LaMarcus Hicks (broken ankle) while CB Travis Fisher was undergoing tests on his injured wrist. EDGE: COWBOYS
Cowboys are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS on the road this season.
Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against the NFC.
Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in the last 45 meetings.
Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a 10.5+ point underdog.
The OVER is 8-3 in the Lions last 11 games as an underdog.

Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers (CBS | 1 PM ET)

Packers star QB Brett Favre left last Thursday’s against Dallas with injuries to both arms, but he is expected to start this weekend against the Raiders. However, Favre will be without backup Aaron Rodgers, who injured his hamstring against the Cowboys. SLIGHT EDGE: RAIDERS
Some league insiders are quick to dismiss the notion that Green Bay cannot run the football. Since RB Ryan Grant took the starting job, he leads the league in rushing yards - averaging 4.9 yards per carry - the 3rd-best average among backs currently starting for their teams. That’s terrible news for an Oakland defense that owns one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, allowing a whopping 4.8 yards per game on the ground this season. BIG EDGE: PACKERS
Despite a 20-point performance against one the worse defenses in the league, the Raiders offense still only scored 14, 10, 9, 17, and 6 points in the 5 previous weeks before last week's win over Denver. EDGE: PACKERS
Green Bay has the luxury of added rest after playing last Thursday night against Dallas. EDGE: PACKERS
With a win over Oakland, the Packers will have swept the AFC West, having already beaten Kansas City, Denver and San Diego.
Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against a winning team.
Raiders are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games on grass.
Packers are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Packers are 3-14-2 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite of 10.5+ points.

San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans (CBS | 1 PM ET)

The return of DT Albert Haynesworth from a hamstring injury paid immediate dividends for the Titans last week, as they won for the 7th time in 9 games he has played this season. In fact, Tennessee is 13-3 the last 2 seasons when Haynesworth plays. "Albert's a dominant player," Titans DE Kyle Vanden Bosch said. "He affects (the opponent's) play calling, their blocking schemes. He's probably the most dominant inside player in football right now. He just changes the game." BIG EDGE: TITANS
The key to this game for the Chargers will be the ability of star RB LaDainian Tomlinson to run the ball against the NFL's 7th-best run defense. That could be tough if Haynesworth plays, but LT is coming off his second-best game of the season last week at Kansas City with 177 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Chargers have won the last 4 meetings, with Tomlinson averaging 6.1 yards per carry in playing 2 of them. SLIGHT EDGE: CHARGERS
Chargers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against a winning team.
Titans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win.
Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the AFC.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (FOX | 1 PM ET)

Donovan McNabb is expected to return and start at QB for the Eagles after missing the last 2 games with ankle and thumb injuries. Backup A.J. Feeley threw 4 interceptions last week in a home loss to Seattle after turning in an impressive performance in a near-upset of New England. SLIGHT EDGE: EAGLES
The Giants are in the driver's seat for one of the two Wild-Card spots in the NFC playoff race after coming back to win at Chicago last week. They trailed 16-7 but rallied behind QB Eli Manning, who looked lost for most of the first three quarters before leading them to their 5th road win in 6 games. "He's a guy that continues to fight," New York CB Sam Madison said. "He comes out to practice after getting booed a lot by the media and everybody else. Yet still he's the first person out at practice and the last person to leave. Messing up and having bad situations is part of the game, but you just have to fight back and play four quarters." EDGE: GIANTS
Giants are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against a winning team.
Eagles are 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of .5-3 points.
The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (FOX | 1 PM ET)

League insiders are interested to see how Carolina responds in this road contest as four of the team's five wins have come on the road against the likes of Arizona, Atlanta, New Orleans and St. Louis. SLIGHT EDGE: PANTHERS
This is a classic look ahead spot for Jacksonville, as the Jaguars have an important road game next week against Pittsburgh. EDGE: PANTHERS
Despite the 31-point outburst against one of the league worst's defenses, some Carolina team insiders are still concerned with Panthers offense that was averaging just 11 points per game in their previous seven contests. EDGE: JAGUARS
Some Jacksonville insiders are concerned about the energy level of Jacksonville players this week as they looked thoroughly “spent” after last week’s loss at divisional rival Indianapolis. In that contest, the Jaguars actually out-gained the Colts 411-342 but still lost the game. EDGE: PANTHERS
Jacksonville welcomes back run-stopping DT Marcus Stroud following a 4-game suspension, and his absence is one of the key reasons why Jacksonville’s normally stout defense has fallen to 22nd in the league. EDGE: JAGUARS
Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 30+ points previously.
Panthers are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last 5 games against a losing team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (FOX | 1 PM ET)

Tampa Bay can clinch the NFC South with a victory, which looks inevitable considering the Bucs have won 4 in a row and are 4-0 in divisional play. They expect to have starting QB Jeff Garcia back after he missed most of last week's win at New Orleans with a back injury. EDGE: BUCS
The Bucs have forced 13 turnovers during their 4-game winning streak and now face a Houston team that has turned the ball over an NFL-high 31 times. "We have to stop making mistakes," Texans DE Mario Williams said. "We all have to take a step back and look at one another and ourselves." BIG EDGE: BUCS
Bucs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against a losing team.
Bucs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of .5-3 points.
Texans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games against a winning road team.
Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (FOX | 4:05 PM ET)

The Minnesota Vikings have found themselves in the playoff hunt, winning 3 in a row behind running backs Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. The Vikings boast the best rushing offense in the league with 176.7 yards per game and an NFL-best 17 touchdowns. They'll oppose a San Francisco 49ers run defense which is among the league's worst, giving up 124 yards per game. BIG EDGE: VIKINGS
The San Francisco 49ers have lost 9 of 10 overall, and their offense has mustered just 10 points per game at home this season. Backup QB Trent Dilfer is again the expected starter, coming off of a career high-tying four interceptions. On the bright side, the Vikings pass defense is allowing a league-worst 279 yards per game. SLIGHT EDGE: 49ERS
Vikings are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite.
Vikings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 30+ points previously.
49ers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against the NFC.
49ers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (FOX | 4:05 ET)

The Seattle Seahawks enter this game winners of 4 straight and have opened a 2-game led in the NFC West Division. The Seahawks can clinch the NFC West with a win by virtue of a better division record. QB Matt Hasselbeck has been leading the charge during this win streak, throwing for 7 touchdowns with just 1 interception. The Arizona Cardinals passing defense has allowed 285 yards per game over their last three, while the Seahawks and Hasselbeck have been airing it out to the tone of 260 passing yards at home. BIG EDGE: SEAHAWKS
Arizona Cardinals QB Kurt Warner is leading the team to 31 points per game over their last 4 while throwing 9 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. The Cardinals might not have WRs Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald for this game, but Bryant Johnson stepped up to catch a team-high six passes last week. The Cardinals are just as hot as the Seahawks and have won two straight against Seattle. EDGE: CARDINALS
Cardinals are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
Cardinals are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games against the NFC.
Seahawks are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games as a favorite of 3.5-10 points.
Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against the NFC.
The OVER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (CBS | 4:15 ET)

If there was a team equipped to end the Patriots streak, the Steelers may fit the bill. After all, Pittsburgh ended New England's league-record 21-game winning streak back in October of 2004. The Steelers enter this game with the No. 1-ranked defense, allowing the fewest points, total yards, and passing yards in the NFL. Defense has been the Patriots problem of late, allowing an average of 383 yards in the last 2 games to backup QBs of the Eagles and Ravens. The Ravens pounded the Patriots with Willis McGahee last week to the tone of 138 rushing yards, so look for the Steelers to do the same with AFC leading rusher Willie Parker. “We got bullied against the Ravens, and it showed that our defense has a lot of problems,” Patriots S Rodney Harrison. EDGE: STEELERS
New England can clinch a first-round bye with a win and will lock up home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs with a win and a Colts loss to Baltimore. The Patriots are on pace to be the highest-scoring team since the AFL-NFL merger, averaging 39 points per game. No one has shown they can slow down this Patriots offense, and all three losses on the season for the Steelers have come on the road with their defense allowing close to 300 total yards per game. EDGE: PATRIOTS
Steelers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.
Steelers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in December.
Steelers are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Patriots are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU win.
Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (FOX | 4:15 PM ET)

This is a virtual “must-win” situational setting for Cleveland after losing a tough game at Arizona last week. Nevertheless, some league insiders believe that the inexperience of this Browns team will ultimately be their downfall. EDGE: JETS
Although the “on paper” statistics show that the Jets defense is simply awful, one team insider has seen a marked improvement since they came off their bye week. They held the Steelers to a then-season low output in yardage (allowing only 263 total yards) and then limited the Cowboys to almost 50 yards short of their seasonal average before the Dolphins totaled a season-low 37 rushing yards against them last week. EDGE: JETS
Some New York insiders are eager to see how rookie QB Kellen Clemens - coming off the best performance of his young career - fares against the NFL’s worst defensive unit. New York is 4-1 ATS in games Clemens has started this season. SLIGHT EDGE: JETS
While the Jets had struggled all year until recently, they are in fact the 2nd-least penalized team in the league, always a good indicator of a well-coached team. On the other hand, the Browns have been flagged more than all but one team in the NFL, and those mental mistakes could very well be their undoing as they pursue the final playoff spot in the AFC. EDGE: JETS
Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
Jets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against a winning team.
Jets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring 30+ points previously.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (CBS | 4:15 PM ET)

The Denver Broncos look to hold on to their slim playoff hopes when they host the Kanasas City Chiefs. Denver has never lost to the Chiefs at Invesco Field, winning six straight home meetings between them. This Broncos team has shown shades of greatness in a few home games, which has been led by QB Jay Cutler, who has completed 70 percent of his passes for 712 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions in his last three home games. The Broncos have scored more than 30 points in 2 of those 3 home games while the Chiefs defense has been getting chewed up to the tone of 23 points per game over their last 5. EDGE: BRONCOS
Kansas City's stumbling offense is a big reason for the team's struggles. The Chiefs are 3rd-worst in both total offense and scoring offense with 14 points per game. They have scored just 17 points after halftime over their last 3 games and have not scored in the fourth quarter in 4 straight games. QB Brodie Croyle is again expected to be the starter this week, and he only threw for 162 yards and an interception in his last game against this Broncos defense. EDGE: BRONCOS
Chiefs are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games against a losing home team.
Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10 points.
Broncos are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 350+ yards previously.
Broncos are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite.
The home team is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (NBC | 8:15 PM ET)

Insiders believe the Ravens will be emotionally down after nearly knocking off the unbeaten Patriots on Monday night. They have dropped 6 in a row, the latest of which may have been the most painful considering they had New England on the ropes before giving up a late game-winning score. "We got bad luck," Baltimore DL Kelly Gregg said. "If we didn't have bad luck, we wouldn't have any luck at all. We need to see a gypsy or something." EDGE: COLTS
Baltimore RB Willis McGahee ran for a season-high 138 yards against the Pats and scored a TD for the 7th straight game. McGahee had not scored in the first 5 weeks of the season. EDGE: RAVENS
This is a big game for the Colts, who need to keep winning in order to try to secure one of the home-field advantage playoff spots in the AFC. They are battling Pittsburgh and New England, who face each other earlier in the day. EDGE: COLTS
Colts are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Colts are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in December.
Ravens are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Ravens are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against the AFC.
The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

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**pm530** · 12-08-2007, 05:39 AM

National Football League – over/under plays

NFL
Total bias: Week 14 over/under plays

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NFL over/under picks
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Total bias: Week 14 over/under picks

Sunday, December 9

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions – under 51 ½

Detroit’s offense is on the rocks. Coordinator Mike Martz’s vertical attack has stalled over the last few weeks. Receivers running deep routes aren’t being found because Jon Kitna is getting whacked less than two Mississippis after the snap.

Wideout Roy Williams won’t be playing anytime soon because of a sprained PCL. Williams’ starting partner, Calvin Johnson, still doesn’t look comfortable and won’t be able to pick up the slack.

Dallas will score often but I don’t think Detroit will hold up its end.

Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers – under 41 ½

My gut feeling is the Packers are going to run the ball much more than they normally do. Brett Favre is banged up and Green Bay can ill afford another injury to its starting quarterback.

Head coach Mike McCarthy will likely have tight ends and running backs blocking on passing downs for Favre.

Green Bay is expected to have key defenders Charles Woodson and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila back this weekend, so don’t expect any more heroics from Oakland’s Josh McCown.

Monday, December 10

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons – over 43 ½

Bettors don’t have to do much digging to find out why the club many picked to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl is 5-7. New Orleans’ defense is as leaky as a cheap coffee filter. The unit has surrendered the second-most number of plays of 20 yards or more (42) and the most over 40 yards (12).

The Falcons will find the end zone several times thanks to that deficiency. Look for Atlanta’s Roddy White to be the main beneficiary. The third-year wideout is enjoying a breakout year and should be able to get the better of New Orleans’ secondary.

Last week’s record: 1-2

Season record: 22-17

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**pm530** · 12-08-2007, 05:39 AM

National Football League – Underdogs

NFL
Underdogs

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NFL underdogs: picks
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NFL underdogs: Week 14 picks

Sunday, December 9

Miami at Buffalo – Dolphins +7

A buddy of mine (pathetic, misguided Bills fan) was lucky enough to take in the last meeting between these two teams in Miami from a great seat right on the 50-yard line. Since then he hasn’t gone more than four days without replaying a late Ted Ginn Jr. kickoff return that went the other way with a flag on the field.

If you were at the game and saw a single dorky Canadian yelling “It’s coming back! It’s coming back!” in a sea of Dolphins jubilation, you have an idea about how annoying this can be.

Another defensive snoozefest this time around, minus the obnoxious Canuck. Take the points.

St. Louis at Cincinnati – Rams +6 ½

It may not be saying much, but St. Louis is the best 3-9 team in the league. What does say something, however, is that the Rams would have won and covered their last four games if it weren’t for a fumbled snap on the goal line two weeks ago against Seattle. Marc Bulger should be ready to go this week and he can go shot-for-shot with Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer with a healthy group of receivers.

It’s been a terrible year for the Rams but this team has some guts, something that can’t be said about the skittish Bengals.

Oakland at Green Bay – Raiders +10 ½

Brett Favre should start, but his throwing elbow took a nasty whack last week so Green Bay will be careful with him and backup Aaron Rogers is out with a pulled hamstring. That means Craig Nall will make his sixth career appearance if the old gunslinger takes a seat.

That could be trouble against an Oakland team that’s all fired up over the JaMarcus Russell era. The rookie looked great taking his first real NFL snaps last week and while he probably won’t start, don’t be surprised if he gets in the game at some point.

As much as I like the Packers, this looks like a tough spot for them. Plus, it looks like there’s a chance of snow at Lambeau.

Last week’s record: 2-1

Season record to date: 20-18-1

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**pm530** · 12-08-2007, 05:41 AM

NFL
Updates

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Updates / Injury Alerts
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12/05/07
02:33 PM Info Alert
NFL
According to team insiders the Washington Redskins seem "very focused" for their Thursday night game against the Bears.

12/05/07
02:28 PM News Alert
NFL
VIkings DE Ray Edwards has been suspended four games for violating the NFL's policy on steroid use.

12/05/07
02:25 PM Lineups
NFL
Steelers WR Santonio Holmes, S Troy Polamalu and T Marvel Smith could all return to the lineup this week.

12/05/07
09:49 AM Lineups
NFL
The Rams are likely to have QB Marc Bulger (concussion) back in the starting lineup this week.

12/04/07
07:31 PM News Alert
NFL
Eric Rivera, a 17-year-old, has been accused of firing the shot that killed Redskins S Sean Taylor.

12/04/07
07:21 PM News Alert
NFL
Broncos released DT Sam Adams.

12/04/07
07:20 PM Lineup Alert
NFL
Bears CB Nathan Vasher will miss Thursday's game against Detroit.

12/04/07
05:59 PM News Alert
NFL Travis Henry has won his appeal of his one-year suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy.

12/04/07
05:32 PM Injury Alert
NFL
Giants placed RB Derrick Ward (fractured fibula) on the season-ending injured reserved list.

12/04/07
05:30 PM Injury Alert
NFL
Dolphins placed Zach Thomas (concussion) on the injured reserved list

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**pm530** · 12-08-2007, 05:43 AM

College Football – Long Sheet

NCAAF
Long Sheet

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Thursday, December 20
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NAVY (8 - 4) vs. UTAH (8 - 4) - 12/20/2007, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
UTAH is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
UTAH is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NAVY is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) against Mountain West conference opponents since 1992.
NAVY is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
NAVY is 48-19 ATS (+27.1 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
NAVY is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
NAVY is 51-21 ATS (+27.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
NAVY is 97-67 ATS (+23.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 97-67 ATS (+23.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 63-38 ATS (+21.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Friday, December 21
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FLA ATLANTIC (7 - 5) vs. MEMPHIS (7 - 5) - 12/21/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLA ATLANTIC is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Saturday, December 22
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SOUTHERN MISS (7 - 5) vs. CINCINNATI (9 - 3) - 12/22/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SOUTHERN MISS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEVADA (6 - 6) at NEW MEXICO (8 - 4) - 12/22/2007, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UCLA (6 - 6) vs. BYU (10 - 2) - 12/22/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
UCLA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UCLA is 1-0 against the spread versus BYU over the last 3 seasons
UCLA is 1-0 straight up against BYU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, December 23
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E CAROLINA (7 - 5) vs. BOISE ST (10 - 2) - 12/23/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 49-19 ATS (+28.1 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 45-26 ATS (+16.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
BOISE ST is 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
BOISE ST is 71-42 ATS (+24.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 71-42 ATS (+24.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 55-32 ATS (+19.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
E CAROLINA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday, December 26
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

C MICHIGAN (8 - 5) vs. PURDUE (7 - 5) - 12/26/2007, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PURDUE is 1-0 against the spread versus C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
PURDUE is 1-0 straight up against C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, December 27
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS (9 - 3) vs. ARIZONA ST (10 - 2) - 12/27/2007, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, December 28
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MICHIGAN ST (7 - 5) vs. BOSTON COLLEGE (10 - 3) - 12/28/2007, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TCU (7 - 5) vs. HOUSTON (8 - 4) - 12/28/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TCU is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MARYLAND (6 - 6) vs. OREGON ST (8 - 4) - 12/28/2007, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON ST is 68-45 ATS (+18.5 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
OREGON ST is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday, December 29
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CONNECTICUT (9 - 3) vs. WAKE FOREST (8 - 4) - 12/29/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CONNECTICUT is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WAKE FOREST is 1-0 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
WAKE FOREST is 1-0 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UCF (10 - 3) vs. MISSISSIPPI ST (7 - 5) - 12/29/2007, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PENN ST (8 - 4) vs. TEXAS A&M (7 - 5) - 12/29/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS A&M is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, December 30
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO (6 - 6) vs. ALABAMA (6 - 6) - 12/30/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
ALABAMA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.
ALABAMA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
ALABAMA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
ALABAMA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday, December 31, 2007
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AIR FORCE (9 - 3) vs. CALIFORNIA (6 - 6) - 12/31/2007, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
AIR FORCE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
AIR FORCE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
AIR FORCE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
CALIFORNIA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
CALIFORNIA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CALIFORNIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 32-55 ATS (-28.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OREGON (8 - 4) vs. S FLORIDA (9 - 3) - 12/31/2007, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FRESNO ST (8 - 4) vs. GEORGIA TECH (7 - 5) - 12/31/2007, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FRESNO ST is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLORIDA ST (7 - 5) vs. KENTUCKY (7 - 5) - 12/31/2007, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANA (7 - 5) vs. OKLAHOMA ST (6 - 6) - 12/31/2007, 5:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AUBURN (8 - 4) vs. CLEMSON (9 - 3) - 12/31/2007, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WISCONSIN (9 - 3) vs. TENNESSEE (9 - 4) - 1/1/2008, 11:00 AM
Top Trends for this game.
WISCONSIN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARKANSAS (8 - 4) vs. MISSOURI (11 - 2) - 1/1/2008, 11:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSOURI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MICHIGAN (8 - 4) vs. FLORIDA (9 - 3) - 1/1/2008, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS TECH (8 - 4) vs. VIRGINIA (9 - 3) - 1/1/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ILLINOIS (9 - 3) vs. USC (10 - 2) - 1/1/2008, 5:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HAWAII (12 - 0) vs. GEORGIA (10 - 2) - 1/1/2008, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
GEORGIA is 44-24 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday, January 2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

W VIRGINIA (10 - 2) vs. OKLAHOMA (11 - 2) - 1/2/2008, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, January 3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS (11 - 1) vs. VIRGINIA TECH (11 - 2) - 1/3/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS is 46-75 ATS (-36.5 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
KANSAS is 25-48 ATS (-27.8 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
KANSAS is 39-59 ATS (-25.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
VIRGINIA TECH is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
VIRGINIA TECH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 32-9 ATS (+22.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
KANSAS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
KANSAS is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday, January 5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALL ST (7 - 5) vs. RUTGERS (7 - 5) - 1/5/2008, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALL ST is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, January 6
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOWLING GREEN (8 - 4) vs. TULSA (9 - 4) - 1/6/2008, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday, January 7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OHIO ST (11 - 1) vs. LSU (11 - 2) - 1/7/2008, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LSU is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**pm530** · 12-08-2007, 05:45 AM

College Football – Short Sheet

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Thursday, December 20th

SDC Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego, California
TV: ESPN
Navy vs. Utah, 9:00 ET

Navy:
6-1 Over off a conference game
9-2 Over after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 games

Utah:
10-2 ATS off 3+ conference games
23-9 ATS playing with rest

Friday, December 21st

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: ESPN2
Florida Atlantic vs. Memphis, 8:00 ET

Florida Atlantic:
6-1 Over off an Over
6-0 Over in the second half of the season

Memphis:
3-12 ATS off BB conference wins
2-14 ATS after scoring 42+ points

Saturday, December 22nd

PapaJohns.com Bowl
Birmingham, Alabama
TV: ESPN2
Southern Miss vs. Cincinnati, 1:00 ET

Southern Miss:
0-6 ATS as an underdog
6-16 ATS off a SU win / ATS loss

Cincinnati:
12-2 ATS off an ATS win
5-1 ATS off a win by 21+ points

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, New Mexico
TV: ESPN
Nevada vs. New Mexico, 4:30 ET

Nevada:
7-0 Under away after scoring 42+ points
9-1 Under away off 3+ conference games

New Mexico:
0-9 ATS after allowing 6 or less points
1-8 ATS after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl
Las Vegas, Nevada
TV: ESPN
UCLA vs. BYU, 8:00 ET

UCLA:
9-1 ATS as an underdog
8-1 ATS off a conference loss

BYU:
10-2 Under playing on a neutral field
29-14 Under as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

Sunday, December 23rd

Sheriton Hawaii Bowl
Honolulu, Hawaii
TV: ESPN
East Carolina vs. Boise State, 8:00 ET

East Carolina:
14-4 Under after winning 3 of their last 4 games
12-5 Under off BB conference games

Boise State:
41-12 ATS off BB conference games
18-3 ATS with a total of 63+ points

Wednesday, December 26th

Motor City Bowl
Detroit, Michigan
TV: ESPN
Central Michigan vs. Purdue, 7:30 ET

Central Michigan:
14-5 ATS playing on artificial turf
10-2 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games

Purdue:
9-0 Under off BB losses
16-6 Under off a conference game

Thursday, December 27th

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl
San Diego, California
TV: ESPN
Texas vs. Arizona State, 8:00 ET

Texas:
13-3 ATS off 3+ Overs
10-2 ATS after allowing 525+ total yards

Arizona State:
11-2 Under away off a home game
12-4 Under away off a conference game

Friday, December 28th

Champs Sports Bowl
Orlando, Florida
TV: ESPN
Michigan State vs. Boston College, 5:00 ET

Michigan State:
6-16 ATS off a conference game
6-16 ATS off BB games with combined scores of 60+ points

Boston College:
12-4 Under playing on grass fields
21-9 Under away off an ATS loss

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Texas Bowl
Houston, Texas
TV: NFL
TCU vs. Houston, 8:00 ET

TCU:
10-1 ATS off BB conference wins
16-5 ATS after having 275+ rushing yards

Houston:
6-0 Under off an ATS loss
6-0 Under away off a combined score of 60+ points

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Emerald Bowl
San Francisco, California
TV: ESPN
Maryland vs. Oregon State, 8:30 ET

Maryland:
17-3 Under after scoring 37+ points
14-4 Under after committing 0 turnovers

Oregon State:
10-2 ATS off a conference win by 7 or less points
12-3 ATS off BB conference games

Saturday, December 29th

Meineke Car Care Bowl
Charlotte, North Carolina
TV: ESPN
Connecticut vs. Wake Forest, 1:00 ET

Connecticut:
8-1 ATS off a road loss
21-8 ATS away vs. non-conference opponents

Wake Forest:
16-6 Under vs. non-conference opponents
8-2 Under off BB games forcing 3+ turnovers

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Memphis, Tennessee
TV: ESPN
Central Florida vs. Mississippi State, 4:30 ET

Central Florida:
6-1 Under off a conference win
7-0 Under after allowing 325+ passing yards

Mississippi State:
16-30 ATS off an Under
1-5 ATS off a home win

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Valero Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, Texas
TV: ESPN
Penn State vs. Texas A&M, 8:00 ET

Penn State:
16-5 Under away vs. non-conference opponents
22-9 Under off a combined score of 60+ points

Texas A&M:
1-12 ATS after gaining 525+ total yards
4-14 ATS away playing with rest

Sunday, December 30th

PetroSun Indepedence Bowl
Shreveport, Louisiana
TV: ESPN
Colorado vs. Alabama, 8:00 ET

Colorado:
10-1 Over after scoring 50+ points
6-0 Over after allowing 325+ passing yards

Alabama:
3-11 ATS as a favorite
0-6 ATS off BB losses

Monday, December 31st

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Fort Worth, Texas
TV: ESPN
Air Force at California, 12:30 ET

Air Force:
7-1 ATS off a straight up win
13-3 ATS away playing with 2+ weeks rest

California:
0-7 ATS off BB conference games
2-10 ATS off a straight up loss

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Brut Sun Bowl
El Paso, Texas
TV: CBS
Oregon vs. South Florida, 2:00 ET

Oregon:
16-6 ATS off a home loss
9-2 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers

South Florida:
9-2 Under after winning 2 of their last 3 games
5-1 Under off BB conference wins

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Roady's Humanitarian Bowl
El Paso, Texas
TV: ESPN2
Fresno State vs. Georgia Tech, 2:00 ET

Fresno State:
20-8 Over playing on artificial turf
22-10 Over off an Under

Georgia Tech:
1-9 ATS off BB Overs
1-5 ATS off a home game

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl
Nashville, Tennessee
TV: ESPN
Florida State vs. Kentucky, 4:00 ET

Florida State:
6-1 ATS after allowing 37+ points
5-1 ATS off 3+ games forcing 1 or 0 turnovers

Kentucky:
11-3 Under playing with 2+ weeks rest
12-2 Under off BB conference losses

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Insight Bowl
Tempe, Arizona
TV: NFL
Indiana vs. Oklahoma State, 5:30 ET

Indiana:
4-15 ATS off 5+ games committing 2+ turnovers
1-5 ATS off a home win by 3 or less points

Oklahoma State:
13-3 Over off an ATS loss
5-1 Over off BB road games

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chick-fil-A Bowl
Atlanta, Georgia
TV: ESPN
(TC) Auburn vs. Clemson, 7:30 ET

Auburn:
6-1 ATS as an underdog
5-1 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

Clemson:
9-2 Under in bowl games
16-6 Under after winning 4 of their last 5 games

Tuesday, January 1st

Outback Bowl
Tampa, Florida
TV: ESPN
Wisconsin vs. Tennessee, 11:00am ET

Wisconsin:
10-2 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
39-22 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers

Tennessee:
5-1 Under off BB games with 40+ pass attempts
8-3 Under off 3+ conference games

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AT&T Cotton Bowl
Dallas, Texas
TV: FOX
Arkansas vs. Missouri, 11:30am ET

Arkansas:
7-1 ATS off BB games allowing 31+ points
15-4 ATS off a combined score of 70+ points

Missouri:
24-7 Over after committing 1 or 0 turnovers
7-3 Over off a loss by 21+ points

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Capital One Bowl
Orlando, Florida
TV: ABC
Michigan vs. Florida, 1:00 ET

Michigan:
0-5 ATS after having 100 or less rushing yards
3-7 ATS off a straight up loss

Florida:
9-2 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
6-1 ATS off an ATS win as a favorite of 10+ points

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, Florida
TV: CBS
Texas Tech vs. Virginia, 1:00 ET

Texas Tech:
0-8 ATS away off a conference win
0-7 ATS away off an ATS win

Virginia:
10-2 Under off a straight up loss
8-1 Under after having 100 or less rushing yards

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rose Bowl presented by Citi
Pasadena, California
TV: ABC
Illinois vs. USC, 4:30 ET

Illinois:
7-1 ATS off a straight up win
10-2 ATS away after scoring 37+ points

USC:
9-2 Under as a favorite
7-1 Under off a conference game

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: FOX
Hawaii vs. Georgia, 8:30 ET

Hawaii:
7-1 Under off 7+ wins
6-1 Under playing on artificial turf

Georgia:
17-5 ATS away vs. non-conference opponents
21-9 ATS away off an Under

Wednesday, January 2nd

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, Arizona
TV: FOX
West Virginia vs. Oklahoma, 8:00 ET

West Virginia:
8-1 ATS away off an ATS loss
6-0 ATS off BB games having 125 or less passing yards

Oklahoma:
8-1 Under away off 3+ conference games
14-4 Under as a neutral field favorite

Thursday, January 3rd

FedEx Orand Bowl
Miami, Florida
TV: FOX
Kansas vs. Virginia Tech, 8:00 ET

Kansas:
3-12 ATS after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
25-48 ATS off a conference loss

Virginia Tech:
7-1 ATS off a conference game
15-5 ATS in the second half of the season

Saturday, January 5th

International Bowl
Toronto, Canada
TV: ESPN2
Ball State vs. Rutgers, 12:00 ET

Ball State:
9-1 ATS off an ATS loss
6-1 ATS off a win by 6 or less points

Rutgers:
10-4 Over off BB conference games
4-1 Over playing with 2+ days rest

Sunday, January 6th

GMAC Bowl
Mobile, Alabama
TV: ESPN
Bowling Green vs. Tulsa, 8:00 ET

Bowling Green:
19-8 ATS off a home win by 17+ points
16-6 ATS after allowing 3 or less first-half points

Tulsa:
0-6 ATS after allowing 37+ points
0-8 ATS after having 475+ total yards

Monday, January 7th

BCS Championship Game
New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: FOX
Ohio State vs. LSU, 8:00 ET

Ohio State:
12-1 ATS off an Under
10-2 ATS off a road game

LSU:
1-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
1-5 ATS off an ATS loss

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**pm530** · 12-08-2007, 05:52 AM

College Football - Tips & Trends

NCAAF
Tips and Trends

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tips and Trends
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(Note: Additional info should be available on subsequent updates)

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 20TH

San Diego Co. Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego, CA
Utah vs. Navy (ESPN | 9 PM ET)

Utah has won 6 straight bowl games, the second-longest postseason winning streak in the nation.
Navy’s owns the top-ranked rushing offense in the country and faces the top scoring defense in the Mountain West. However, Air Force rolled 334 yards on the ground against the Utes in a 20-12 win back on September 8 th.
Navy is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. Mountain West opponents.
The OVER is 8-2 in Navy’s last 10 neutral site games.
The OVER is 9-3 in Navy’s last 12 non-conference games.

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 21ST

R&L Carriers Bowl - New Orleans, LA
Florida Atlantic vs. Memphis (ESPN2 | 8 PM ET)

Memphis won 5 of 6 to end the season following the tragic shooting death of DL Taylor Bradford.
The OVER is 8-2 in Florida Atlantic’s last 10 non-conference games.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22ND

PapJohns.com Bowl - Birmingham, AL
Cincinnati vs. Southern Miss (ESPN2 | 1 PM ET)

Tale of two coaches here as Cincinnati’s Brian Kelly is on the hot list for every major job in the country after turning the Bearcats into a Top 25 team while Southern Miss’ Jeff Bower resigned and will be coaching his last game for the Golden Eagles.
Cincinnati is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games.

New Mexico Bowl - Albuquerque, NM
New Mexico vs. Nevada (ESPN | 4:30 PM ET)

This is essentially a home game for the Lobos, who were 5-1 SU in Albuquerque this year but only 2-3 ATS. In fact, New Mexico is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 home games.
Nevada freshman QB Colin Kaepernick was 4-3 as a starter this season, but 3 of those losses were decided by a combined 7 points. The Wolfpack covered 2 of those 3 losses but dropped 5 of 6 ATS overall to end the season.
Nevada is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games on grass.

Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl - Las Vegas, NV
BYU vs. UCLA (ESPN | 8 PM ET)

Second meeting between the teams after UCLA won 27-17 in Week 2. BYU has won 9 straight since then while the Bruins finished the season at 6-6 and fired head coach Karl Dorrell.
UCLA is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. Mountain West opponents.
The UNDER is 9-2 in UCLA’s last 11 games vs. Mountain West opponents.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 23RD

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl - Honolulu, HI
East Carolina vs. Boise State (ESPN | 8 PM ET)

East Carolina played only 2 ranked teams all season, losing to Virginia Tech and West Virginia by a combined score of 65-14.
The Broncos return to Hawaii for the second time in a month after losing to the Warriors 39-27 back on November 23 rd.
The UNDER is 8-2 in Boise State’s last 10 non-conference games.

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 26TH

Motor City Bowl - Detroit, MI
Purdue vs. Central Michigan (ESPN | 8 PM ET)

Insiders believe this is a classic power conference vs. mid-major “mismatch” where the public will likely assume the bigger, more physical Boilermakers will push the Chippewas around. However, Purdue dropped 3 straight to close out the regular season following a 5-0 start and finished a disappointing 3-5 in Big Ten play. Central Michigan won 4 of 5 before winning the MAC title game.
Central Michigan is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games vs. Big Ten opponents.
Purdue is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games vs. MAC opponents.
The OVER is 7-1-1 in Central Michigan’s last 9 non-conference games.
The OVER is 7-1 in Central Michigan’s last 8 games overall.
The OVER is 7-3-1 in Purdue’s last 11 non-conference games.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27TH

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl - San Diego, CA
Texas vs. Arizona State (ESPN | 8 PM ET)

The OVER is 8-2 in Texas’ last 10 games as a favorite.
The OVER is 10-3 in Texas’ last 13 non-conference games.
The UNDER is 12-2 in Arizona State’s last 15 games overall.

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 28TH

Champs Sports Bowl - Orlando, FL
Boston College vs. Michigan State (ESPN | 5 PM ET)

Michigan State is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games on grass.
Boston College is 15-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The OVER is 7-2 in Boston College’s last 9 games as a favorite.

Texas Bowl - Houston, TX
TCU vs. Houston (NFL | 8 PM ET)

TCU is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 vs. Conference USA.
The UNDER is 8-2 in TCU’s last 10 games as a favorite.

Emerald Bowl - San Francisco, CA
Maryland vs. Oregon State (ESPN | 8:30 PM ET)

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 29TH

Meineke Car Care Bowl - Charlotte, NC
Wake Forest vs. Connecticut (ESPN | 1 PM ET)

UConn is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games on grass.
UConn is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 overall.
The UNDER is 11-4 in UConn’s last 15 non-conference games.
The OVER is 7-2 in Wake Forest’s last 9 games.

AutoZona Liberty Bowl - Memphis, TN
Central Florida vs. Mississippi State (ESPN | 4:30 PM ET)

The UNDER is 8-3 in Mississippi State’s last 11 vs. Conference USA.

Alamo Bowl - San Antonio, TX
Penn State vs. Texas A&M (ESPN | 8 PM ET)

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 30TH

Petro Sun Independence Bowl - Shreveport, LA
Colorado vs. Alabama (ESPN | 8 PM ET)

MONDAY, DECEMBER 31ST

Bell Helicoptor Armed Forces Bowl - Fort Worth, TX
Air Force vs. California (ESPN | 12:30 PM ET)

While Air Force has won six of its last seven games, the game they lost, 34-31 to New Mexico, was the only team of the bunch to finish the season with a winning record. Going back even farther, the last win Air Force had over a winning team was on September 13th, when they beat Texas Christian, 20-17.
Although the Bears have lost five of their last six games, it gives the team a chance to finish on an up note, and begin laying the foundation for next season. The game also marks a homecoming for the two Golden Bears from the Dallas area, Justin Forsett and Brock Mansion.
Motivation could again be a huge factor, as Cal lost $10 in slipping from Rose Bowl to Holiday Bowl and got blown out 45-31 by Texas Tech as an 11-point favorite back in 2004.
Cal is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games on grass.
The OVER is 13-6 in Air Force’s last 19 games as an underdog.

Sun Bowl - El Paso, TX
South Florida vs. Oregon (CBS | 2 PM ET)

Oregon is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on turf.
South Florida is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games overall.
The OVER is 7-3 in Oregon’s last 10 non-conference games.

Humanitarian Bowl - Boise, ID
Georgia Tech vs. Fresno State (ESPN2 | 2 PM ET)

Fresno State is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games overall.
The OVER is 10-4 in Fresno’s last 14 games as an underdog.
The OVER is 6-2 in Fresno’s last 8 games on turf.

Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl - Nashville, TN
Kentucky vs. Florida State (ESPN | 4 PM ET)

Chick-fil-A Bowl - Atlanta, GA
Auburn vs. Clemson (ESPN | 7:30 PM ET)

Auburn is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games overall.
Clemson is 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The UNDER is 15-5 in Auburn’s last 20 games as an underdog.
The UNDER is 11-5 in Clemson’s last 16 non-conference games.

Insight Bowl - Tempe, AZ
Indiana vs. Oklahoma State (NFL | TBA)

Indiana is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games on grass.
The OVER is 16-7 in Indiana’s last 23 games as an underdog.
The OVER is 7-2 in Oklahoma State’s last 9 games as a favorite.

TUESDAY, JANUARY 1ST

Outback Bowl - Tampa Bay, FL
Wisconsin vs. Tennessee (ESPN | 11 AM ET)

Wisconsin is 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Wisconsin is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games overall.

AT&T Cotton Bowl - Dallas, TX
Missouri vs. Arkansas (FOX | 11:30 AM ET)

Missouri is 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Missouri is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games overall.
The OVER is 8-2 in Arkansas’ last 10 non-conference games.
The OVER is 10-4 in Missouri’s last 14 games overall.

Gator Bowl - Jacksonville, FL
Virginia vs. Texas Tech (CBS | 1 PM ET)

The UNDER is 11-5-1 in Virginia’s last 17 games overall.

Capital One Bowl - Orlando, FL
Michigan vs. Florida (ABC | 1 PM ET)

The OVER is 8-1 in Michigan’s last 9 Bowl games.
The UNDER is 9-4 in Florida’s last 13 non-conference games.

Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA
USC vs. Illinois (ABC | 4:30 PM ET)

Insiders believe no team will benefit more from the extra time off than the Trojans, who were also beat up at the end of last season before beating Michigan 32-18 in the Rose Bowl. Injuries ultimately hurt USC’s shot at the national championship, as both of the team’s losses happened with backup QB Mark Sanchez under center. Many considered the Trojans the most dangerous team in the country at the end of the season with the early losses costing them a BCS spot.
Illinois is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games on grass.
Illinois is 10-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The UNDER is 10-1 in Illinois’ last 11 games on grass.
The UNDER is 16-5 in USC’s last 21 games overall.

Allstate Sugar Bowl - New Orleans, LA
Hawaii vs. Georgia (FOX | 8:30 PM ET)

Oddsmakers opened Hawaii at +8 in this game after Boise State’s stunning win over Oklahoma last year in the Fiesta Bowl, but the public quickly bet this number up to 11 points in favor of Georgia. Many still believe Hawaii’s schedule that produced an unbeaten season was too soft and lacked a legitimate power conference opponent like the Bulldogs.
Georgia likely won’t be overconfident in this game after underestimating West Virginia in the 2006 Sugar Bowl. The Bulldogs were blown out by the Mountaineers in the first half before a furious rally came up short. They realize this is a statement game for them, which could lead to a preseason #1 ranking next year with an impressive victory.
Two very different offenses will take the field in New Orleans, as Georgia would love to control the clock with a power running game while Hawaii looks to light up the scoreboard with a pass-happy attack led by Heisman Trophy contender Colt Brennan. Some insiders think the Bulldogs will get a major test defensively since the closest thing to Hawaii’s offense in the SEC is Kentucky.
Hawaii is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games on turf.
Hawaii is 7-18 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The OVER is 23-9-1 in Hawaii’s last 33 games on turf.

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 2ND

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl - Glendale, AZ
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia (FOX | 8 PM ET)

Oklahoma played in this game a year ago and saw an underrated Boise State team pull off a shocking upset. The Sooners have had to listen to how they “let themselves get beat” by the Broncos every day since then and just got done beating a Missouri team that said “they beat themselves” in the first meeting. Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops takes revenge very seriously, so you can bet he will have his team fired up for an explosive West Virginia team with a similar run-oriented attack as Boise.
West Virginia is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on grass.
West Virginia is 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The OVER is 7-1 in Oklahoma’s last 8 non-conference games.
The UNDER is 6-1 in Oklahoma’s last 8 Bowl games.
The UNDER is 7-3 in West Virginia’s last 10 games overall.

THURSDAY, JANUARY 3RD

FedEx Orange Bowl - Miami, FL
Virginia Tech vs. Kansas (FOX | 8 PM ET)

Kansas is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games overall.
The OVER is 6-2 in Kansas’ last 8 games as an underdog.
The OVER is 14-6 in Kansas’ last 20 non-conference games.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 5TH

International Bowl - Toronto, ON
Rutgers vs. Ball State (ESPN2 | 12 PM ET)

Ball State is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games overall.
Rutgers is 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 6TH

GMAC Bowl - Mobile, AL
Tulsa vs. Bowling Green (ESPN | 8 PM ET)

Tulsa is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games overall.
The UNDER is 9-4 in Bowling Green’s last 13 games on grass.
The OVER is 9-4 in Bowling Green’s last 13 non-conference games.

MONDAY, JANUARY 7TH

BCS National Championship - New Orleans, LA
Ohio State vs. Louisiana State (FOX | 8 PM ET)

Last year, the extended time off (51 days) between games really cooled off the previously unbeaten Buckeyes, and insiders feel that same problem will recur against the SEC’s best team. The Tigers have the most NFL talent on their roster and will be able to make good use of the break to heal their wounds, just like USC did in last year’s Rose Bowl. That’s bad news for the Buckeyes and could very well lead to another ugly title game.
Ohio State is 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Ohio State is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 games overall.
LSU is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games on turf.
LSU is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
Underdog is 6-3 SU in BCS title games, winning 4 of last 5.

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**pm530** · 12-08-2007, 05:54 AM

National Basketball Association - Tips & Trends

NBA

Saturday, December 8

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Tips and Trends
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Memphis Grizzlies at Atlanta Hawks (7 PM ET)

Grizzlies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Saturday games.
Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Atlanta.
Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Bobcats (7 PM ET)

Cleveland is riding a 5-game losing streak without star LeBron James, who continues to miss time with a sprained finger. The Cavs were averaging 102.1 points with James and have since scored 78.2 per game without him. "It's tough - the coach is struggling because he's trying to find new combinations," Cleveland center Zydrunas Ilgauskas said. "When LeBron is on the floor, 80 percent of our offense runs through him, and we feed off of him and that's why we're good." EDGE: BOBCATS
Charlotte is the only team in the NBA with a longer losing steak than Cleveland, dropping 7 in a row since an impressive 6-4 start. The Bobcats have lost 9 of the 11 all-time meetings with the Cavs. EDGE: CAVS
Cavaliers are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 games following a SU loss.
Bobcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing 100+ points previously.
Bobcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
The UNDER is 8-2 in the Bobcats last 10 games following am ATS loss.

Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks (7:30 PM ET)

76ers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games.
76ers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 meetings in New York.
Knicks are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games.

Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves (8 PM ET)

Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against a losing home team.
Timberwolves are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team winning over 60%.
The OVER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Minnesota.

Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls (8:30 PM ET)

Celtics are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 Saturday games.
Celtics are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Chicago.
Bulls are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against the Atlantic Division.

Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks (NBATV | 8:30 PM ET)

Jazz are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 road games.
Mavericks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Home team is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets (9 PM ET)

Kings are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Nuggets are 4-11 ATS in their last 5 games against the Western Conference.
The UNDER is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.

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Announcement

Saturday Trends and Indexes 12/08

Saturday Trends and Indexes 12/08

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