Monday Trends and Indexes 12/03

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Monday, December 3

Good Luck on day #337 of 2007!



NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

Six-pack for Monday

-- Ohio State vs LSU for national title; with Les Miles being a Michigan grad, it adds to subplot of just how Wolverines are going to fill their coaching vacancy. The longer it takes, the more likely they haven't given up on Miles.

-- Indiana-Oklahoma State will be a high-scoring bowl. Too bad it is being televised on the NFL Network.

-- That Moreno from Georgia kid might run for 300 yards against Hawai'i, but Dawgs will have their hands full with the undefeated Rainbow Warriors.

-- We forgot to mention how Oregon screwed up end of its game with Oregon State Saturday, not spiking ball to give its FG kicker more time to set up winning FG. They rushed, they missed, they lost in overtime.

-- Maryland lost to VCU in hoops Sunday; easy to forget that Terps have won a national title in this decade.

-- Monday is last day for Q School, the 108-hole grinder of a tournament, where the 166 entrants vie for 25 (and ties) PGA Tour cards for '08. Best golf tournament of the year; there are guys actually playing with their career on the line.

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[pm530]

Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday...........

13) Good day to be named McCown, as Oakland, Tampa won with the brothers starting at QB. You watch Tampa play and wonder why this guy wasn't already a starter in the league.

12) Sean Payton will have a lousy week, after flea-flicker was botched by Saints when they led 23-20 with under 4:00 to go, and Saints had ball near mid-field. Bucs recovered, won game with 0:14 left, effectively ending the Saints' season.

11) I love wide-open play-calling, but dammit, there is a time to be conservative, and up 23-20 with 3:30 left was that time.

10) You think handicapping the NFL is easy? Three of four top passers Sundays were Frerotte-McCown-Jackson, and if you figured on that, I want to take you to a casino.

9) Rams won three of last four games, after 0-8 start; good for Linehan, who deserves to keep his job. Too bad they lost that game to Seattle last week, or this would be a nice run.

8) Remember, Packers were 4-8 last year, finished 8-8, and the momentum, to a degree, carried over to '07. Its not automatic, but at least its a positive to build on for 2008.

7) Mike Shanahan's career coaching record: 144-93; when his QB was John Elway, he was 54-18, without him, he is 90-75.

6) Thought officials missed chance to overturn the last play in Cleveland-Arizona game; thought Winslow was knocked out of bounds and should have been awarded what would have been a game-winning TD on that final play. Fun game.

5) Lofa Tatupu picked Feeley off three times as Seattle beat a sloppy Eagle team; four Seattle TD drives were of 18-8-43-53 yards, as Eagle miscues lost them the game. Philly had ball on 1-yard line at end of half, didn't score; they had it on 11-yard line in last minute of game, didn't score, so they didn't win.

4) The 49ers have been simply terrible this season; they gout outgained 307-195 by the Testaverde Panthers Sunday. Yuk.

3) Jaguars had 168 rushing yards, outgained Colts 411-342 in 28-25 loss at Indy. For some reason, Jags seem to move ball well against Dungy's defense.

2) I wonder if Nick Buoniconti will open champagne bottles if the Dolphins finish this season 0-16, which may happen?

1) Minnesota ran a fake field goal up 42-10, then ran halfback option pass on same series; why? If you tell me they want to run score up for tie-breaker purposes, which may become a factor at the end, then just go for the first down. Faking field goals up 42-10 is bush league, at the very least.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index

MONDAY, DECEMBER 3

Game 365-366: New England at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: New England 152.649; Baltimore 125.195
Dunkel Line: New England by 27 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: New England by 20 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-20 1/2); Over

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[pm530]

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet


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Monday, December 3
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NEW ENGLAND (11 - 0) at BALTIMORE (4 - 7) - 12/3/2007, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet


Monday, December 3

New England at Baltimore, 8:30 EST ESPN
New England: 7-1 ATS vs. conference opponents
Baltimore: 0-8 ATS vs. conference opponents

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[pm530]

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up


Week 13 NFL schedule

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Monday, December 3
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Patriots (11-0) @ Ravens (4-7) —Hideous Raven offense (15 for last 59 on 3rd down, -13 turnover ratio in last four games), special teams are putting too much pressure on Baltimore defense; 15 of foes’ last 51 drives started in Raven territory, after only 8 of first 78 did this season. Patriots took Eagles’ best shot last week, still won; they’re 6-0 on road, winning 38-14/34-13/48-27/49-28/24-20/56-10. In second half of those six games, Pats outscored foes 113-34. Emotional Ravens are capable of great defense, but they’ll need their best offensive game of year to move chains enough to take pressure off their defense. Over is 9-2 in Patriot games this season, 6-1 in last seven Baltimore games.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL


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Tips and Trends
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Monday, December 3

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (ESPN | 8:30 PM ET)

New England got a scare in last week's 31-28 win over Philadelphia, prompting some insiders to believe the success the Eagles had might be duplicated by others around the NFL. "We know that this is the National Football League and it's a copycat league and a lot of things that Philly did good this past week, a lot of teams will dissect that and try to come up with their own scheme," Patriots DE Ty Warren said. However, other insiders also argue that the Ravens don't have the necessary personnel to copy Philly's scheme and hand the Pats their first loss. SLIGHT EDGE: RAVENS
Former Baltimore LB Adalius Thomas will be taking a more prominent role now that Rosevelt Colvin is out for the season due to injury. Thomas was a Pro Bowler with the Ravens a year ago, ranking third on the team in tackles with 106 and second in sacks with 11. While Thomas is more than capable of filling in, the loss of Colvin also means more work for Junior Seau and Tedy Bruschi, who are used to more limited roles. SLIGHT EDGE: RAVENS
Baltimore ranks second in the NFL with 28 giveaways, and the team's defense has only generated four takeaways in the last five games combined. The Patriots have turned the ball over an NFL-low nine times. BIG EDGE: PATRIOTS
Patriots are 25-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Ravens are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC.
Ravens are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
The OVER is 14-3 in NE last 17 games.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Cheat Sheet

NFL
NFL poolies' cheat sheet


Monday, December 3

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Cheat Sheet
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NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 13

New England at Baltimore (+20 1/2)

Why Patriots cover: Will want to rebound from a near loss to Philadelphia last week as 22-point favorites. Adalius Thomas will face his former team for the first time. Ravens have lost five straight and are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall.

Why Ravens cover: Could learn from Philadelphia's success against New England last week. Patriots lost key linebacker Roosevelt Colvin for the season last week. Home team has won five of the last six meetings. Held Tom Brady to 172 yards and no touchdowns in their last meeting.

Total (51 1/2): Over is 14-3 in Patriots' last 17 games and 6-1 in Ravens' last seven Monday games.

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[pm530]

National Football League – over/under plays

NFL
Total bias: Week 13 over/under plays


Monday, December 3

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NFL over/under picks
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Total bias: Week 13 top over/under play

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens - over 51 1/2

I know, I know. I've got some bad karma taking the over in Monday nighters, but I can't bet against the Pats and the over.

It's been proven several times throughout this campaign the Ravens' defense is not what it once was. They're old, slow and they can't put any pressure on the quarterback. It doesn't help either the unit has to spend two-thirds of the game on the field because Baltimore's offense can't put together any long drives.

The way New England played its opening drive against the Eagles has to be an over bettor's dream. The Patriots lined up with four wide receivers and went with a no-huddle offense. Look for a similar strategy against a banged up Baltimore secondary.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Betting Notes

NFL
Betting Trends

Monday, December 3

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NFL game day buzz: Week 13 betting notes
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New England at Baltimore (+20 1/2)

These teams have played three times since the Cleveland Browns fired Bill Belichick and moved to Baltimore to become the Ravens for the 1996 season, with the Patriots winning all three. The Ravens have scored a combined six points in the last two meetings.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Bettor’s Need to Know

NFL


Monday, December 3

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What bettors need to know: Patriots at Ravens
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New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (+20 ½, 51 ½)

Ravens ‘D’ strongest against wrong threat

Baltimore’s defense is supposed to be formidable.

It has allowed a fourth-best 291 total yards per game this season. That success, however, doesn’t translate to a more important team stat. The Ravens are leaking 22.1 points per game, a mediocre number that seems to rise every game. Over the last four contests they’ve let opponents pile up an average 31 points.

Now this defense must contain uber-powerful New England. Baltimore is a 20 ½ -point home underdog.

“That’s just like a boxer wanting to go against a champion,” Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan said in a press conference this week.

The motivation should be there, but does Ryan’s unit have a chance?

Patriots wide receiver Randy Moss is coming off a rare bad game. Last week, Eagles cornerback Sheldon Brown kept Moss to just 43 yards receiving and no touchdowns. Baltimore safety Ed Reed will need to stay deep and do the same Monday. The Ravens’ Pro Bowler has five interceptions this year and certainly boasts the skills to pull it off.

"He's a ballhawk. He covers so much ground back there,” Pats quarterback Tom Brady told the Sun Chronicle on Saturday.

Reed will need a big game if he’s without teammate and cornerback Chris McAlister, who is listed as questionable.

Another area of optimism is Baltimore’s success at stopping teams when its back is against the wall. The club has allowed touchdowns from the red zone just 34 per cent of the time. And Baltimore’s run defense remains stifling, allowing just 77 yards a game.

The Patriots hold the ace however. With so many passing weapons, Brady & Co. can just skip the ground game. Baltimore’s strongest hand may not even factor.

My old stumping grounds

Adalius Thomas was a key component of the Ravens defense for six seasons before signing a lucrative deal with the Pats last offseason. When he enters M&T Bank Stadium he’ll suit up in the visitors locker room for the first time.

The multi-talented defender couldn’t wait until Monday night to start hitting his former teammates. He suggested in a recent interview with Sports Illustrated that the Ravens are more interested in personal honors than team goals.

Baltimore linebacker Ray Lewis took exception and called Thomas a “coward” on his radio show.

Thomas could be in store for a strong finish to the season. He’ll assume the outside linebacker role now that Rosevelt Colvin is done for the year. Thomas’ pass-rushing abilities have mostly been underused thus far so this is a great opportunity for Thomas to show why he’s worth all the money.

Fumbling through the season

The good reputation the Ravens built up last year with a +15 turnover ratio is in tatters so far this season. Baltimore’s current turnover ratio (minus-11) is the league’s worst. Its 19 lost fumbles – by far the most of any NFL team – is costing the team wins.

Ravens head coach Brian Billick said turnovers could be especially costly against New England.

"The Patriots certainly don't need a short field to continue to do what they're doing, and that's been our nemesis,” Billick told the Boston Globe.

Billick’s quarterbacks are responsible for many of the gifts. Kyle Boller, expected to start Monday, has tossed five picks and fumbled away the ball three times.
It is his task to beat a New England defense that has 25 takeaways this year. The Patriots own a league-leading plus-16 turnover ratio.

Whatch you talkin’ ‘bout Jaworski?

There’s a reason Tom Brady is highly respected in the New England locker room, and it’s not just because he gets all the hot women. Brady has never said a bad word about any of his teammates. This past week was no exception.

ESPN analyst Ron Jaworski accused Pats wideout Randy Moss of taking multiple plays off during Monday night’s near loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.

“When I went through the tape, it was the first time that I was personally disappointed in a Randy Moss performance,” Jaworski told reporters. “I did not see the same energy on every single play that I had seen so far this season.”

Brady doesn’t agree.

“I don’t think that’s true at all,” Brady told the Boston Herald. “He’s never taken any plays off. He’s everything we hoped he would be. People have said the most negative things about him, and they continue to bash him. He’s just a very mature man that goes about his business and works extremely hard.”

Sounds like Brady and Moss are best friends forever.

As if the Pats weren’t enough

The Ravens face four first-place teams in the final five weeks of the season. After New England, they host 9-2 Indianapolis. Their last two games of the year are against Seattle and Pittsburgh.

Baltimore’s only relief may be a Dec. 16 visit to Miami to play the Dolphins.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Preview

NFL

Monday, December 3

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NFL Preview
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Monday Night Football Preview

The visiting New England Patriots will be looking to run their winning streak to a dozen games Monday when they head to M&T Bank Stadium to take on the Baltimore Ravens.

Tom Brady and company were almost tagged with their first loss of the season last week when they had to come back to defeat the Philadelphia Eagles by a final score of 31-28 at home. New England was up just 24-21 at halftime in that contest, went down by four points in the third quarter, then rallied for the victory with a TD in the final frame.

Brady went 34-of-54 for 380 yards passing in that game, with just one touchdown strike and no interceptions. Randy Moss was held to just five catches for 43 yards on the day, while Wes Welker led the receiving corps with 13 catches for 149 yards. Laurence Maroney rushed for only 31 yards on 10 carries, but he did score the fourth-quarter TD.

New England had been favored by 24 points at home against the Eagles, and obviously they didn't come close to covering that spread. The Patriots are now 9-2 against-the-spread on the season, but they've failed to cover in two of their past three games. The 31-28 result was an OVER play, and high-scoring New England is now 9-2 on the OVER/UNDER through 11 games this year, putting up 30 or more points in 10 contests.

The Ravens lost 32-14 on the road to the San Diego Chargers last weekend, which put their losing streak at five games and dropped them into the basement of the AFC North division. The Chargers scored 22 points in the second quarter of that contest, and cruised from there to the easy win. Baltimore managed just one touchdown each half.

Baltimore QB Kyle Boller completed 21-of-33 pass attempts for 191 yards against San Diego, with one touchdown strike and no interceptions. Le'Ron McClain had the TD catch for the Ravens in the third quarter, while Derrick Mason had seven catches for 99 yards on the day. Willis McGahee rushed for 59 yards and a score on his 17 attempts.

That loss put Baltimore at 4-7 straight-up on the season, and a miserable 1-10 against-the-spread. The only time the Ravens have covered this year was when they beat the St. Louis Rams 22-3 as 9-point favorites back on October 14. The 46 points put last weekend's combined score OVER the posted total of 38.5 points; Baltimore is now 6-4-1 on the OVER/UNDER so far this year, with three OVER plays in their last four games.

The oddsmakers haven't put too much stock into the Patriots' near-miss last weekend - they're still favored by a huge 20-point margin on the road on Monday night. The OVER/UNDER for the game has been pegged at 49 points. New England is 5-1 against-the-spread on the road this season, and Baltimore is 1-4 ATS on their own field.

The last time the Patriots and the Ravens met in regular-season action was on November 28, 2004, when New England rolled to a 24-3 home victory. The Pats covered the 7-point spread in that contest, while the combined score fell UNDER the posted total of 34.5 points. In their last meeting in Baltimore in October of 1996 the Patriots came away with a 46-38 victory as 3-point favorites; that contest was an OVER.

Here are the official injury reports for both New England and Baltimore for Monday . . .

New England Injuries
Tom Brady QB Probable Week 13 (right shoulder)

Baltimore Injuries
Steve McNair QB Out Week 13 (left shoulder)
Demetrius Williams WR Out Week 13 (ankle)
Todd Heap TE Questionable Week 13 (thigh)
Chris McAlister CB Questionable Week 13 (knee)
Gerome Sapp S Questionable Week 13 (thigh)
Justin Bannan DT Probable Week 13 (ankle)
Jared Gaither T Probable Week 13 (illness)
Jarret Johnson LB Probable Week 13 (thumb)
Willis McGahee RB Probable Week 13 (ankle)
Gary Stills LB Probable Week 13 (knee)
Daniel Wilcox TE Probable Week 13 (foot)

After playing in Baltimore on Monday night the Patriots will head back home to host the Steelers in Week 14. The Ravens will be getting a visit from Indianapolis next weekend.

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[pm530]

College Basketball – Long Sheet

NCAAB
Long Sheet


Monday, December 3

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TOWSON ST (3 - 3) at DELAWARE (0 - 4) - 12/3/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOWSON ST is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TOWSON ST is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TOWSON ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
TOWSON ST is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
TOWSON ST is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TOWSON ST is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TOWSON ST is 3-1 against the spread versus DELAWARE over the last 3 seasons
TOWSON ST is 3-1 straight up against DELAWARE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAL DAVIS (4 - 3) at DARTMOUTH (3 - 4) - 12/3/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DARTMOUTH is 28-47 ATS (-23.7 Units) in all home games since 1997.
DARTMOUTH is 28-47 ATS (-23.7 Units) in home lined games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
DARTMOUTH is 1-0 straight up against CAL DAVIS over the last 3 seasons

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ARKANSAS ST (2 - 4) at NORTHWESTERN (2 - 4) - 12/3/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NORTHWESTERN is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MISSOURI ST (4 - 1) at ARKANSAS (6 - 1) - 12/3/2007, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS is 1-0 against the spread versus MISSOURI ST over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS is 1-0 straight up against MISSOURI ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE ST (2 - 3) at INDIANA (6 - 1) - 12/3/2007, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WOFFORD (3 - 1) at WISCONSIN (5 - 1) - 12/3/2007, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WISCONSIN is 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) in all home games since 1997.
WISCONSIN is 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
WISCONSIN is 57-37 ATS (+16.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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[pm530]

College Basketball – Write up

NCAAB
Write-up


Monday, December 3

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Monday's College Basketball

Game of the Night

Missouri State has been nosed out for NCAA bid last couple of years; this is kind of win that would look very good on their resume come March. Bears lost opener 57-53 at Toledo, won its next four games, beating Saint Louis, Winthrop, both by four. Arkansas is 6-1, losing to Providence 67-51 on neutral floor; the Hogs have wins over Charleston (75-49), VCU (70-60) and last week, over Missouri (94-91).


Rest of the Card

-- Delaware is 0-4, with three losses by five or less points; they lost twice to Towson LY, 75-68 here (+1), 85-73 at Towson (+11) Tigers shot 62.5%/55.9% from floor in two games. Towson split its first six games, losing last two on road (Navy, Vermont).

-- Dartmouth followed up terrific win vs Vermont with bad 70-43 loss at Stony Brook; Big Green is 3-4, 1-1 at home, losing by 15 to James Madison, beating Vermont 76-75. Cal-Davis lost first game of eastern swing, 73-57 at Brown (+9.5).

-- Arkansas State is 2-4, 0-3 on road, losing by 16-21-14 points at Tulsa, Memphis, Murray State. Northwestern is 1-4, beating Savannah State in last game; they're scoring jut 60 ppg, 65 ppg in its three home games.

-- Indiana had excellent win at Carbondale late Saturday; they're 6-1 this season, 3-2 vs spread as favorite. Short turnaround for this game; Hoosiers play Kentucky next Saturday, Tennessee State is 2-3, losing 87-68 to Colorado State, 99-85 to Ga Tech (led at half), 74-72 vs Akron.

-- Wisconsin got waxed at Duke last week, is 5-1, 2-0 vs spread as home favorite- all five of their home wins are by 19+ points. Wofford lost 67-45 at Arkansas, then beat three stiff teams after that; they open Southern Conference play Saturday.

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