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Week 12
1-1
2007
22-21-2
Units
+3.51
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
2* Buffalo +9 over Jax
Jacksonville's defense is very overrated and I don't think they could cover this high line. Meanwhile, the Bills are an underrated team and I am going to take advantage of them at +9. The Jags have won 2 in a row and face Indy next week so they are in a look ahead situation. All of the analysts talk about how good the Jags D is, well let's take a look. They allow 18 PPG, but this is against teams that have averaged only 18 PPG. They allow 4.1 YPR (20th) and a whopping 7.5 YPPA (25th) and 251 YPG in the air (27th). Their offense is pretty good as they average 4.2 YPR (9th) and 7.24 YPPA (12th). Garrard has 0 interceptions this year, and this cannot continue throughout the entire season.
Buffalo's offense and defense has been greatly improved over the last 5 weeks (excluding the NE game). They allow 22 PPG, but this is against teams that have scored 25 PPG. They average 3.7 YPR (23rd) and 7 YPPA(16th). Defensively, they allow 4.3 YPR and 7.1 YPPA (18th). But, as I said these stats are skewed because or their poor performance in the earlier season. Also there are 8 trends favoring the Bills. There is a 30-7 ATS trend favoring the Bills because of their blowout loss last week. Typically team of blowouts in the NFL bounce back the next week. Let's go Bills!
1* Seattle -2.5 (-130) over St. Louis (Buy 1/2 point) (Downgraded to 1*)
Let me preface my write up by saying I don't think that the Hawks are a spectacular team, but they are better than the Rams and will be able to handle them on the road. The Rams are coming off back-to-back wins in which they beat the Saints and the lowly Niners (barely). The Rams are a very bad football team. Their offense is terrible and they only average 15 PPG (29th), 3.5 YPR (25th), and 6.25 YPPA (27th). Their defense is just as bad as they allow 26 PPG (28th). Their rush defense is below average allowing 4 YPR (18th) and their pass defense allows 7.26 YPPA (21st). As you can see, they are only in the top 20 in one statistical category.
The Hawks have hit a little hot streak as they have won 3 of 4 SU and ATS. Their rushing game is not good as they average only 3.5 YPR (25th), but most of the year Alexander was rushing the ball and he is a very overrated back. Morris is a better RB and is averaging 4.1 YPR this year. Hasselbeck is having a pretty good year; he is averaging 7.2 YPPA (13th) and 254 YPG (8th) in the air. Holmgren has said he intends to pass, and no better defense to air it out than the Rams. Hasselbeck has some banged up ribs but had a full day of practice on Friday and says he feels great. This is not a new injury and he has played well recently and I don't think this will affect him. Defensively, the Hawks only allow 16.4 PPG (5th), 4 YPR (17th), and 6.74 YPPA (11th). Seattle won this game 33-6 a few weeks back and I see a similar outcome. My Super System is 25-15 this year (63%) when the line difference is 5 or greater and it has Seattle as an 11 point favorite. I am going to buy the ½ point to bring the line to 2.5. I still rate this a 2* play at -3.
1-1
2007
22-21-2
Units
+3.51
1*: .66 to .75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
2* Buffalo +9 over Jax
Jacksonville's defense is very overrated and I don't think they could cover this high line. Meanwhile, the Bills are an underrated team and I am going to take advantage of them at +9. The Jags have won 2 in a row and face Indy next week so they are in a look ahead situation. All of the analysts talk about how good the Jags D is, well let's take a look. They allow 18 PPG, but this is against teams that have averaged only 18 PPG. They allow 4.1 YPR (20th) and a whopping 7.5 YPPA (25th) and 251 YPG in the air (27th). Their offense is pretty good as they average 4.2 YPR (9th) and 7.24 YPPA (12th). Garrard has 0 interceptions this year, and this cannot continue throughout the entire season.
Buffalo's offense and defense has been greatly improved over the last 5 weeks (excluding the NE game). They allow 22 PPG, but this is against teams that have scored 25 PPG. They average 3.7 YPR (23rd) and 7 YPPA(16th). Defensively, they allow 4.3 YPR and 7.1 YPPA (18th). But, as I said these stats are skewed because or their poor performance in the earlier season. Also there are 8 trends favoring the Bills. There is a 30-7 ATS trend favoring the Bills because of their blowout loss last week. Typically team of blowouts in the NFL bounce back the next week. Let's go Bills!
1* Seattle -2.5 (-130) over St. Louis (Buy 1/2 point) (Downgraded to 1*)
Let me preface my write up by saying I don't think that the Hawks are a spectacular team, but they are better than the Rams and will be able to handle them on the road. The Rams are coming off back-to-back wins in which they beat the Saints and the lowly Niners (barely). The Rams are a very bad football team. Their offense is terrible and they only average 15 PPG (29th), 3.5 YPR (25th), and 6.25 YPPA (27th). Their defense is just as bad as they allow 26 PPG (28th). Their rush defense is below average allowing 4 YPR (18th) and their pass defense allows 7.26 YPPA (21st). As you can see, they are only in the top 20 in one statistical category.
The Hawks have hit a little hot streak as they have won 3 of 4 SU and ATS. Their rushing game is not good as they average only 3.5 YPR (25th), but most of the year Alexander was rushing the ball and he is a very overrated back. Morris is a better RB and is averaging 4.1 YPR this year. Hasselbeck is having a pretty good year; he is averaging 7.2 YPPA (13th) and 254 YPG (8th) in the air. Holmgren has said he intends to pass, and no better defense to air it out than the Rams. Hasselbeck has some banged up ribs but had a full day of practice on Friday and says he feels great. This is not a new injury and he has played well recently and I don't think this will affect him. Defensively, the Hawks only allow 16.4 PPG (5th), 4 YPR (17th), and 6.74 YPPA (11th). Seattle won this game 33-6 a few weeks back and I see a similar outcome. My Super System is 25-15 this year (63%) when the line difference is 5 or greater and it has Seattle as an 11 point favorite. I am going to buy the ½ point to bring the line to 2.5. I still rate this a 2* play at -3.
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