Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Week 12 NFL Plays

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Week 12 NFL Plays

    Week 12
    1-1
    2007
    22-21-2
    Units
    +3.51

    1*: .66 to .75 Unit
    2*: 1 Unit
    3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
    4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
    5*: 2+ Units



    2* Buffalo +9 over Jax

    Jacksonville's defense is very overrated and I don't think they could cover this high line. Meanwhile, the Bills are an underrated team and I am going to take advantage of them at +9. The Jags have won 2 in a row and face Indy next week so they are in a look ahead situation. All of the analysts talk about how good the Jags D is, well let's take a look. They allow 18 PPG, but this is against teams that have averaged only 18 PPG. They allow 4.1 YPR (20th) and a whopping 7.5 YPPA (25th) and 251 YPG in the air (27th). Their offense is pretty good as they average 4.2 YPR (9th) and 7.24 YPPA (12th). Garrard has 0 interceptions this year, and this cannot continue throughout the entire season.
    Buffalo's offense and defense has been greatly improved over the last 5 weeks (excluding the NE game). They allow 22 PPG, but this is against teams that have scored 25 PPG. They average 3.7 YPR (23rd) and 7 YPPA(16th). Defensively, they allow 4.3 YPR and 7.1 YPPA (18th). But, as I said these stats are skewed because or their poor performance in the earlier season. Also there are 8 trends favoring the Bills. There is a 30-7 ATS trend favoring the Bills because of their blowout loss last week. Typically team of blowouts in the NFL bounce back the next week. Let's go Bills!

    1* Seattle -2.5 (-130) over St. Louis (Buy 1/2 point) (Downgraded to 1*)
    Let me preface my write up by saying I don't think that the Hawks are a spectacular team, but they are better than the Rams and will be able to handle them on the road. The Rams are coming off back-to-back wins in which they beat the Saints and the lowly Niners (barely). The Rams are a very bad football team. Their offense is terrible and they only average 15 PPG (29th), 3.5 YPR (25th), and 6.25 YPPA (27th). Their defense is just as bad as they allow 26 PPG (28th). Their rush defense is below average allowing 4 YPR (18th) and their pass defense allows 7.26 YPPA (21st). As you can see, they are only in the top 20 in one statistical category.
    The Hawks have hit a little hot streak as they have won 3 of 4 SU and ATS. Their rushing game is not good as they average only 3.5 YPR (25th), but most of the year Alexander was rushing the ball and he is a very overrated back. Morris is a better RB and is averaging 4.1 YPR this year. Hasselbeck is having a pretty good year; he is averaging 7.2 YPPA (13th) and 254 YPG (8th) in the air. Holmgren has said he intends to pass, and no better defense to air it out than the Rams. Hasselbeck has some banged up ribs but had a full day of practice on Friday and says he feels great. This is not a new injury and he has played well recently and I don't think this will affect him. Defensively, the Hawks only allow 16.4 PPG (5th), 4 YPR (17th), and 6.74 YPPA (11th). Seattle won this game 33-6 a few weeks back and I see a similar outcome. My Super System is 25-15 this year (63%) when the line difference is 5 or greater and it has Seattle as an 11 point favorite. I am going to buy the ½ point to bring the line to 2.5. I still rate this a 2* play at -3.
    Check out all of my past picks at www.Byeweekpicks.com
    Twitter: https://twitter.com/Byeweekpicks

    2014 NFL Record: 36-30-1 (55%), +5.5 units

    2013 NFL Record: 34-26-1 (57%)

    2012 NFL Record: 41-30-2 (58%)
    +9 units (1unit=6% of bankroll)

    2011 NFL record: 34-25-2 (58%)
    +3.4 units

    2010 NFL Record: 29-16-2 (64%)
    +15.1 units

    2009 NFL Record: 37-24-4 (61%)
    +16.3 units

    2008 NFL Record: 39-24-3 (62%)
    +16.8 Units

    2007 NFL Record: 42-27-2 (61%)
    +14.7 Units

  • #2
    good luck with tha playz, roc!

    Comment


    • #3
      gl to ya today---thanks


      Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!

      Comment


      • #4
        BOL with the plays today.
        Records listed in members records forum.

        Comment


        • #5
          GL today Roccodean

          Comment


          • #6
            Add On

            Thanks fellas...1-1 today going into tonight. You can see all my past plays at www.byeweekpicks.com.

            Week 12
            2-2
            2007
            23-22-2
            Units
            +3.16

            1* Phil +25.5 over N.E. (Bodog)
            The line has finally caught up to the Pats and I am going to take advantage by taking the dog in this game. The Pats have beat teams by an average of 25 PPG this year, but this takes into account the bad teams they have blown out, and the Eagle are not that bad. 90% of the general public is betting the Pats every week which is shooting the line up. Let's look at the stats. N.E. rushing game is average gaining 4.2 YPR (10th). As you all know Brady is having an all time great season averaging 9 YPPA. Another reason I like the Eagles is because the Pats rushing D is not impressive and the Eagles are going to run a lot in this game to keep the Pats offense off the field. The Pats allow 4.2 YPR (21st). Against the pass they are strong allowing 6.43 YPPA (6th).
            Philly's run game is very strong averaging 4.6 YPR (3rd). Feely is starting, but as I don't think that they will take that much of a step back because the Eagles will run predominantly in this game. The Eagles defense is strong allowing only 3.7 YPR (5th) and 210 YPG passing (14th). There are 2 trends favoring the Eagles. My Super System does not come into play this game, it has the Pats as a 24 point favorite.
            Check out all of my past picks at www.Byeweekpicks.com
            Twitter: https://twitter.com/Byeweekpicks

            2014 NFL Record: 36-30-1 (55%), +5.5 units

            2013 NFL Record: 34-26-1 (57%)

            2012 NFL Record: 41-30-2 (58%)
            +9 units (1unit=6% of bankroll)

            2011 NFL record: 34-25-2 (58%)
            +3.4 units

            2010 NFL Record: 29-16-2 (64%)
            +15.1 units

            2009 NFL Record: 37-24-4 (61%)
            +16.3 units

            2008 NFL Record: 39-24-3 (62%)
            +16.8 Units

            2007 NFL Record: 42-27-2 (61%)
            +14.7 Units

            Comment


            • #7
              good luck with tha Igles tonight, Roc!

              Comment


              • #8
                thx fellas
                Check out all of my past picks at www.Byeweekpicks.com
                Twitter: https://twitter.com/Byeweekpicks

                2014 NFL Record: 36-30-1 (55%), +5.5 units

                2013 NFL Record: 34-26-1 (57%)

                2012 NFL Record: 41-30-2 (58%)
                +9 units (1unit=6% of bankroll)

                2011 NFL record: 34-25-2 (58%)
                +3.4 units

                2010 NFL Record: 29-16-2 (64%)
                +15.1 units

                2009 NFL Record: 37-24-4 (61%)
                +16.3 units

                2008 NFL Record: 39-24-3 (62%)
                +16.8 Units

                2007 NFL Record: 42-27-2 (61%)
                +14.7 Units

                Comment


                • #9
                  +25...hahaha what a joke!!
                  Check out all of my past picks at www.Byeweekpicks.com
                  Twitter: https://twitter.com/Byeweekpicks

                  2014 NFL Record: 36-30-1 (55%), +5.5 units

                  2013 NFL Record: 34-26-1 (57%)

                  2012 NFL Record: 41-30-2 (58%)
                  +9 units (1unit=6% of bankroll)

                  2011 NFL record: 34-25-2 (58%)
                  +3.4 units

                  2010 NFL Record: 29-16-2 (64%)
                  +15.1 units

                  2009 NFL Record: 37-24-4 (61%)
                  +16.3 units

                  2008 NFL Record: 39-24-3 (62%)
                  +16.8 Units

                  2007 NFL Record: 42-27-2 (61%)
                  +14.7 Units

                  Comment

                  Working...
                  X