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My humble opinion on the Patriots

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  • My humble opinion on the Patriots

    Like everyone else I come up here and read everyones picks and thoughts and opinions on the games and sports in general.
    Today, I was suprised to see the frequency in which I saw people picking the Bills in this evenings game. I posted a pick on the Patriots and so did some others, but like I said, there were a bunch on the Bills also and that leads me to say this.

    I believe that what we are watching this year is special. I believe that this team will go undefeated. That they will break the majority of the offensive records and that they will not be tested at any point in the remainder of this campaign. I also think (and you guys may think I am crazy for saying this) that two weeks ago they played opossum with the Colts. I honestly believe they let the Colts hang around for 3 quarters of the game knowing that in the fourth quarter they could turn it on and overcome whatever deficit they were in. I understand that your probably thinking well hindsight is 20/20, but IMO thats exactly what happened. Bellichick knows that in all likelihood he will be matched up with the Colts in the playoffs and he didnt want to pull out all the stops just in case they need to in the playoffs. Kind of just do whatever it took to win.

    That all being said, I also believe that when handicapping the Patriots games, angles, trends, homefield, travel, scheduling quirks, byes, streaks, injuries (unless Brady) really dont matter.
    I think the way to handicap a Patriots game is to pick the Patriots. Regardless of the spread, weather or any kind of ATS trend that someone could dig up. And in case anyone is thinking I am saying this after the fact, Im not. I basically shortened this thread into one line when I posted my Sunday picks in my thread early Sunday morning.

    What we are seeing with this team is uniqueness and complete domination. They outman their opponent by a wide margin at every position and their offensive line does not allow Brady to be touched. He is on pace to obliterate Manning's record and believe me, the undefeated thing is very important to Bellichick.

    I am in no way a Patriots fan. I live in NY and am a huge Giants fan and I am worried about the fact that even if the Patriots have homefield throughout locked up weeks in advance, if the Giants need a victory in their last game to make the playoffs, well then they arent making the playoffs. Teams have gone on winstreaks. A team even has gone undefeated. Im 36 years old so I didnt see the 50's Giants or the 60's Packers but in all my years of watching football I have never seen anything like this. They literally can name the score each and every game. Regardless of the opponent, field conditions or the stadium they are playing in.

    Hope you all dont think I am trying to sound like a know it all because thats not what I mean at all. Maybe I am completely wrong, who knows. And far be it for me to tell you guys how to handicap. Not my intention either. I learned after about my second day on here that this forum is filled with guys that know a lot more than me. I just dont think, barring injury, that there is a good enough reason or reasons out there to pick a Patriots opponent this year. I understand if you think Im crazy for saying it, but its just an opinion I wanted to share.
    "The power of accurate observation is frequently called cynicism by those who don't have it." George Bernard Shaw

  • #2
    3eb... I have been riding against the Pats lately bc I didn't think they could continue this streak. Usually the line catches up to every team (see San Diego last year), but maybe this is an exception. But, I also think that this is still a game and that New England is human. Also, the team that wins in turnover margin wins the game about 90% of the time in the NFL. That being said fumbles are 90% random. So, if NE fumbles twice and the other team has zero turnovers they can lose. Another thing that perplexes me is that their yards/rush and defensive yards/rush are not that impressive...but Manning is making up for it big time. Also lets not forget that 2 weeks ago with 10 minutes left in the game Indy was winning, if they would of held on wouldnt be having this convo. In any case they are unlike anything ive ever seen and Ill prob stay away from them (with or against) the rest of the year.
    Check out all of my past picks at www.Byeweekpicks.com
    Twitter: https://twitter.com/Byeweekpicks

    2014 NFL Record: 36-30-1 (55%), +5.5 units

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    2012 NFL Record: 41-30-2 (58%)
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    2011 NFL record: 34-25-2 (58%)
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    2010 NFL Record: 29-16-2 (64%)
    +15.1 units

    2009 NFL Record: 37-24-4 (61%)
    +16.3 units

    2008 NFL Record: 39-24-3 (62%)
    +16.8 Units

    2007 NFL Record: 42-27-2 (61%)
    +14.7 Units

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    • #3
      You're a good writer 3Rock. I completely agree. This is the best team in NFL history. The largest line I have ever seen was in 1993 when the 49ers were a 24-pt home fave vs Cincy. I expect to see the Pats close to that before the season is over.

      Good Luck,
      dave
      Last edited by dave T; 11-19-2007, 12:16 AM.

      Comment


      • #4
        You make some good points Rocco and thats the exact kind of feedback I was hoping for. Another perspective because I feel so strongly about mine.

        Just to play devils advocate with what you are saying:
        Fumbles and interceptions are the two ways a team can turn it over. Well, Brady doesnt throw interceptions. One every 2.5 games. And there is no reason to believe they will fumble any more than their opponent will fumble. So sure, if they fumble it away twice a game for the rest of the year then I will most likely be wrong with what I said. And sure, they are human. Anything can happen. But if the first games are any indication as to predicting whether it will or not, then I think you would agree that they should be okay in that department.
        As far as yards per rush, they rush the ball just to keep the defense off balance and their running backs interested and to keep Brady's arm in one piece. As they showed in more than one game this year, they dont need to rush at all. They have had numerous scoring drives this year in which Brady threw 90+% percent of the plays on a particular drive. As far as defensive rush yards, two words, garbage time. And as far as Indy two weeks ago, they didnt hold on because the Patriots are better. Much better. They scored 14 unanswered in the Colts building against the defending champs and againsta QB who up until this year people were saying was the best ever. So thats exactly my point, IF the Colts held on. But they didnt. And why they didnt has very much to do with the Patriots. Its not as if the Pats scored two defensive tds in the final minutes or Vinatieri missed a gw chipshot like he did against SD.
        And lastly because I realize I am rambling, even if the linesmakers adjusted the line tonight, would it have mattered? They would have had to triple it, not adjust it. In fact in 6 of their 10 games, if the pointspread was double what it was, they still would have covered.

        Sorry for going on and on. Just that its a pretty interesting subject to me.
        "The power of accurate observation is frequently called cynicism by those who don't have it." George Bernard Shaw

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        • #5
          Thanks Dave, I appreciate the compliment. And sure, I think we may see unprecedented NFL lines by the time the season is up. They have to play the Jets and Miami again. At home. Wow.
          "The power of accurate observation is frequently called cynicism by those who don't have it." George Bernard Shaw

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          • #6
            Well written, I agree. They cannot be stopped, I think the only weakness is Maroney who likes to cut back too much rather than pound it. He may break a few that way but has too many negative plays. That being said, their pass sets up the run and they pass so well why even run it other than to give Tom's arm a rest.

            Betting advice - either bet the Patriots or stay away, but why bet against them. Their has to be better choices on the board.
            NBA is a joke

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            • #7
              What makes this team hard to set lines for IMO, is that Belichik does not let up. Conventional wisdom says that when they are up big, they will tone it down. This is not even close to being true, look at tonight. The over was 23 on the second half line, and one team being up that big, would usually mean an under play on the second half. They go to score on every possesion, and I think they will pour it on in every game.
              $100/unit

              They are all booger eaters!!!

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              • #8
                Exactly the thoughts I am trying to express. NFL is hard enough and in my opinion, the Patriots give you a real good opportunity to pick up some units. If you dont agree then thats one thing, dont bet on them. But at this point, betting against them may be a bit of an uphill battle.
                "The power of accurate observation is frequently called cynicism by those who don't have it." George Bernard Shaw

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                • #9
                  3rock, thank you for confirming what I thought today. I saw a lot of calls on Buffalo today and it took everything I had inside of me to go the other way. I turned the game over and over in my head and looked at it from any angle I could think of and couldn't find one solid reason to bet the Bills. I don't post my own picks and generally follow a few cappers on this board but this game was one I just couldn't bring myself to bet..... I had to trust my gut feelings (which I should do more often).

                  Nice to know I'm not crazy.....

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    This is what I calculated the lines to be if the games were played TODAY, give or take a 1/2 point or so:

                    NE -17.5 vs Phi
                    Ne -15.5 at BAL*
                    NE -11.0 vs Pit
                    NE -23.0 vs Nyj
                    NE -24.5 vs Mia**
                    Ne -10.5 at NYG*


                    *These two games are potential "go against" situations for the Pats according to the venerable 3010 DBL PK System. If the Pats "peak" (30-10) vs Philly, they would be a "go against" when they play the Ravens. If not, if they peaked in BOTH the Jets and Dolphins games, they would be play against at the Giants. This would be ideal to see if the system could beat the best team ever (imo). The system has beat some of the best teams in NFL history including the '79 Steelers, '85 Bears, '93 49ers, the list goes on and on. Despite how good the Pats are this year, only the COWBOYS have double peaked this season; only the Bears last season, and only the Seahawks in '05. All three IMPLODED after the double 30-10 peak as is usually the case. Even the 1985 Bears IMPLODED when up against the 3010 DBL PK. I hope it comes up. It'll be cool to see who wins...the Greatest team EVER, or the Greatest system EVER.

                    **If this line is correct, it would be the biggest opening line ever in the NFL. The 1993 49ers, while "closing" at 23.5 or 24.0 (depending on the book), it "opened" at 21.0 or 21.5. Btw, they were a "go against" according to 3010 system. Cincinnati led the game 8-7 at halftime and held on for the double-digit "cover" losing to San Fran 21-8.

                    gl,
                    dave

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by 3ebRocks
                      I also think (and you guys may think I am crazy for saying this) that two weeks ago they played opossum with the Colts. I honestly believe they let the Colts hang around for 3 quarters of the game knowing that in the fourth quarter they could turn it on and overcome whatever deficit they were in.
                      I agree that the Pats are the best thing since sliced bread.

                      BUT...


                      Do you honestly think that Bill's was telling his players all week that that was the gameplan...we will trail in the game by 10 points with 10 minutes to go and then we will come back! Ready...Break! Comon 3eb...


                      That is rediculous.
                      It's always noon somewhere!

                      My Fish and Aquariums

                      Griffey's Posted Record

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                      • #12
                        Good for the Patriots, may karma bite them in the ass
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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by dave T
                          This is what I calculated the lines to be if the games were played TODAY, give or take a 1/2 point or so:

                          NE -17.5 vs Phi
                          Ne -15.5 at BAL*
                          NE -11.0 vs Pit
                          NE -23.0 vs Nyj
                          NE -24.5 vs Mia**
                          Ne -10.5 at NYG*


                          *These two games are potential "go against" situations for the Pats according to the venerable 3010 DBL PK System. If the Pats "peak" (30-10) vs Philly, they would be a "go against" when they play the Ravens. If not, if they peaked in BOTH the Jets and Dolphins games, they would be play against at the Giants. This would be ideal to see if the system could beat the best team ever (imo). The system has beat some of the best teams in NFL history including the '79 Steelers, '85 Bears, '93 49ers, the list goes on and on. Despite how good the Pats are this year, only the COWBOYS have double peaked this season; only the Bears last season, and only the Seahawks in '05. All three IMPLODED after the double 30-10 peak as is usually the case. Even the 1985 Bears IMPLODED when up against the 3010 DBL PK. I hope it comes up. It'll be cool to see who wins...the Greatest team EVER, or the Greatest system EVER.

                          **If this line is correct, it would be the biggest opening line ever in the NFL. The 1993 49ers, while "closing" at 23.5 or 24.0 (depending on the book), it "opened" at 21.0 or 21.5. Btw, they were a "go against" according to 3010 system. Cincinnati led the game 8-7 at halftime and held on for the double-digit "cover" losing to San Fran 21-8.

                          gl,
                          dave
                          I don't care if the line is 35 against the J-E-T-S...Belichick is going to lay major wood to Mangini athat it will make the 56-10 beating they laid down on Buffalo look like a close game!
                          Three Jack's Record http://www.bettorschat.com/forums/sh...10#post1323910

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Three Jack
                            I don't care if the line is 35 against the J-E-T-S...Belichick is going to lay major wood to Mangini athat it will make the 56-10 beating they laid down on Buffalo look like a close game!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              3Eb they are allowing 4.2 YPR, 21st in NFL, doubt it's garbage time because teams will be throwing when they are down this much. Teams only run 21 times per game on them (2nd least in NFL) because they are so down. Just my opinion.
                              Check out all of my past picks at www.Byeweekpicks.com
                              Twitter: https://twitter.com/Byeweekpicks

                              2014 NFL Record: 36-30-1 (55%), +5.5 units

                              2013 NFL Record: 34-26-1 (57%)

                              2012 NFL Record: 41-30-2 (58%)
                              +9 units (1unit=6% of bankroll)

                              2011 NFL record: 34-25-2 (58%)
                              +3.4 units

                              2010 NFL Record: 29-16-2 (64%)
                              +15.1 units

                              2009 NFL Record: 37-24-4 (61%)
                              +16.3 units

                              2008 NFL Record: 39-24-3 (62%)
                              +16.8 Units

                              2007 NFL Record: 42-27-2 (61%)
                              +14.7 Units

                              Comment

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