Sunday Trends and Indexes 11/18

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Sunday, November 18

Good Luck on day #322 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

Six-pack for Sunday

More professional football trends for Week 11

-- Browns covered seven of their last nine games.

-- Bucs are 5-10 vs spread as favorite in division games.

-- Packers are 5-11-1 vs spread as a home favorite.

-- Steelers covered one of last six as a road favorite.

-- Raiders covered one of last six against the NFC.

-- Bears covered three of their last twelve games.

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[pm530]

Six-pack

(Earlier “Six-pack” is repeated here.)

NFL trends for Week 11

-- Chargers failed to cover last five non-division road tilts.

-- Arizona covered seven of last eight as a road dog.

-- Lions are 5-1 as non-divisional home favorite.

-- Cowboys covered two of last seven as division favorite.

-- Vikings covered nine of last 12 as home favorite.

-- Eagles covered just three of last 13 against the AFC.

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[pm530]

Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up college football Saturday

13) Louisiana-Monroe 21, Alabama 14. Not exactly what the 92,000+ who attended the Crimson Tide's spring game had in mind for this season. Bama is now 6-5, and could miss out on a bowl game if they lose to Auburn next week.

12) Texas Tech 34, Oklahoma 27; as Graham Harrell threw it 47 times in first half, as Tech led 27-10. The Red Raiders had 314 total yards in the first half, an amazing total. Sooner QB Sam Bradford got knocked goofy in first half, did not return.

11) That was the 11th time this season an unranked team got win against a team ranked in nation's top 5. A weird season.

10) Hawaii barely survived at Nevada Friday night, winning 28-26 on late FG; its a damn shame no one recognizes all the Warriors have done late at night. June Jones is the perfect coach for Hawai'i- they're tough team to beat. We know that because no one wants to play them.

9) Kudos to Ron Zook and the Illini, who followed up their upset win last week at Ohio State with a rivalry game win vs Northwestern; solid coaching job right there. Illini are for real

8) Boston College continues to haunt Clemson, beating them 20-17 on late TD, after beating Tigers in OT last two years.

7) Ole Miss had been only team in SEC that has run kick back for TD this season; they ran punt back for score for their first score against LSU, but then Tigers ran ensuing kick back for a score, becoming second SEC team to do it this season.

6) Michigan trailed by 10+ points in each of last five games- they really aren't that talented. 8-4 is a pretty good season for their talent level, team speed and injuries they've had.

5) You have to question the Big 11 this season when Iowa is on a roll at end of season, then loses at home to 3-7 Western Michigan. Northwestern lost to Duke, Michigan lost to I-AA Appalachian State, Wisconsin didn't win at UNLV until last 2:00. Just a very mediocre league.

4) I do not like individual awards, but I will say this; the best players in the country are Tebow and McFadden. People will skip Tebow because he is sophomore, they'll skip McFadden because Arkansas has some losses, but anyone who votes for Matt Ryan for Heisman should lose their credentials.

3) Tebow, despite being first-year starter, is first player to run and pass for 20 TD's, in same season. That is 20 running and 20 more passing, a tremendous accomplishment in the SEC.

2) Kansas-Missouri next week turns out to be Game of Year in the Big 12; it was supposed to be in Lawrence, but Jayhawk AD sold game to Kansas City, where it will fill up Arrowhead. Whoops. Merchants in Lawrence are not pleased, because of all the business they're losing out on.

1) If Lloyd Carr retires Monday morning, Les Miles' life gets just little more hectic, because he will be answering Michigan questions every day between now and whenever Wolverines replace Carr (probably with Miles, who played at Michigan). It would be stunning if the hubbub doesn't distract LSU from its appointed rounds, as they try for SEC, national titles.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Dunkel Index

NFL
Dunkel Index

Week 11

Chicago at Seattle
The on-again, off-again saga of Rex Grossman appears to be on again as the much-criticized QB came off the bench last week and led the Bears to a win over the Raiders. It likely saved the Bears season -- at least for the moment -- and set up a showdown for this weekend in Seattle. These two team met twice last year with the Bears winning both times, the first during the regular season at home (37-6) and the second in the divisional playoff (27-24). But it is Seattle that comes in with the better record at this point and in first place in the division, while the Bears are likely scratching for a wild card bid. The difference between the two teams doesn't look to be that great, though. Four of Seattle's five wins have come against losing teams (Cincinnati, St. Louis and San Francisco twice), while the Bears have actually played better ball on the road (3-2 record) than at Soldier Field (1-3) with notable victories at Philadelphia and Green Bay. Lovie Smith is sticking with Grossman this week looking for a little of last season's magic. The should make for a good underdog pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has Chicago favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+6). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 18

Game 403-404: San Diego at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 136.733; Jacksonville 132.944
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 4; 47
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+3); Over

Game 405-406: Kansas City at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 125.159; Indianapolis 150.679
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 25 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 14 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-14 1/2); Under

Game 407-408: Oakland at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 122.759; Minnesota 133.595
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 11; 32
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 5; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-5); Under

Game 409-410: Cleveland at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 126.240; Baltimore 130.107
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 4; 47
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Over

Game 411-412: Pittsburgh at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 138.003; NY Jets 125.759
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 12 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 9 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-9 1/2); Over

Game 413-414: Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 131.556; Atlanta 125.997
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 5 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-3); Over

Game 415-416: Arizona at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 128.651; Cincinnati 128.841
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+3 1/2); Under

Game 417-418: Miami at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 120.412; Philadelphia 132.231
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 12; 46
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 10; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-10); Over

Game 419-420: New England at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: New England 151.973; Buffalo 131.347
Dunkel Line: New England by 20 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: New England by 14 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-14 1/2); Over

Game 421-422: Washington at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 124.164; Dallas 142.188
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 18; 51
Vegas Line: Dallas by 10 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-10 1/2); Over

Game 423-424: New Orleans at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 130.026; Houston 127.300
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 3; 53
Vegas Line: Houston by 1; 48
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+1); Over

Game 425-426: Carolina at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 125.292; Green Bay 139.830
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 14 1/2; 32
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 9 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-9 1/2); Under

Game 427-428: NY Giants at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 132.018; Detroit 135.970
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4; 47
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 49
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3); Under

Game 429-430: St. Louis at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 117.074; San Francisco 121.724
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 4 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3); Over

Game 431-432: Chicago at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 129.276; Seattle 128.293
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 1; 40
Vegas Line: Seattle by 6; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+6); Over


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 19

Game 433-434: Tennessee at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 133.358; Denver 129.003
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 4; 41
Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3); Over

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[pm530]

National Football League – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet


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Sunday, November 18
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SAN DIEGO (5 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (6 - 3) - 11/18/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in home games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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KANSAS CITY (4 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 2) - 11/18/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 30-49 ATS (-23.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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OAKLAND (2 - 7) at MINNESOTA (3 - 6) - 11/18/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
OAKLAND is 21-46 ATS (-29.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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CLEVELAND (5 - 4) at BALTIMORE (4 - 5) - 11/18/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 4-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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PITTSBURGH (7 - 2) at NY JETS (1 - 8) - 11/18/2007, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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TAMPA BAY (5 - 4) at ATLANTA (3 - 6) - 11/18/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 2-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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ARIZONA (4 - 5) at CINCINNATI (3 - 6) - 11/18/2007, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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MIAMI (0 - 9) at PHILADELPHIA (4 - 5) - 11/18/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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NEW ENGLAND (9 - 0) at BUFFALO (5 - 4) - 11/18/2007, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
BUFFALO is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 114-83 ATS (+22.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 66-44 ATS (+17.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 59-39 ATS (+16.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 73-50 ATS (+18.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 50-27 ATS (+20.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 5-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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WASHINGTON (5 - 4) at DALLAS (8 - 1) - 11/18/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 20-37 ATS (-20.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 43-67 ATS (-30.7 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
DALLAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 3-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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NEW ORLEANS (4 - 5) at HOUSTON (4 - 5) - 11/18/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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CAROLINA (4 - 5) at GREEN BAY (8 - 1) - 11/18/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
GREEN BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
CAROLINA is 70-42 ATS (+23.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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NY GIANTS (6 - 3) at DETROIT (6 - 3) - 11/18/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 17-38 ATS (-24.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 20-40 ATS (-24.0 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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ST LOUIS (1 - 8) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 7) - 11/18/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 65-90 ATS (-34.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 23-41 ATS (-22.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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CHICAGO (4 - 5) at SEATTLE (5 - 4) - 11/18/2007, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
SEATTLE is 43-69 ATS (-32.9 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 14-35 ATS (-24.5 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
SEATTLE is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


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Monday, November 19
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TENNESSEE (6 - 3) at DENVER (4 - 5) - 11/19/2007, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet


Sunday, November 18th

San Diego at Jacksonville, 1:00 EST
San Diego: 9-1 ATS vs. AFC South opponents
Jacksonville: 1-7 ATS off BB Overs

Kansas City at Indianapolis, 1:00 EST
Kansas City: 5-1 ATS off BB ATS losses
Indianapolis: 28-14 Over off a loss as a favorite

Oakland at Minnesota, 1:00 EST
Oakland: 2-9 ATS off 4+ losses
Minnesota: 17-7 Over after allowing 450+ total yards

Cleveland at Baltimore, 1:00 EST
Cleveland: 10-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points
Baltimore: 0-6 ATS vs. conference opponents

Pittsburgh at NY Jets, 1:00 EST
Pittsburgh: 13-4 ATS off BB home wins
NY Jets: 0-7 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less

Tampa Bay at Atlanta, 1:00 EST
Tampa Bay: 15-5 Under in road games
Atlanta: 5-15 ATS off 3+ ATS wins

Arizona at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST
Arizona: 19-8 Over as an underdog
Cincinnati: 0-7 ATS at home after losing 2 of their last 3 games

Miami at Philadelphia, 1:00 EST
Miami: 6-15 ATS off an Under
Philadelphia: 9-2 ATS off a division game

New England at Buffalo, 1:00 EST
New England: 8-1 ATS as a favorite
Buffalo: 6-1 Over off a division win

Washington at Dallas, 1:00 EST
Washington: 15-30 ATS after allowing 30+ points
Dallas: 6-0 ATS vs. conference opponents

New Orleans at Houston, 1:00 EST
New Orleans: 1-6 ATS off BB Overs
Houston: 10-2 Over with a line of +3 to -3

Carolina at Green Bay, 1:00 EST
Carolina: 30-16 ATS away off an ATS loss
Green Bay: 0-8 ATS at home off an Under

NY Giants at Detroit, 4:15 EST
NY Giants: 23-10 Under away in November
Detroit: 3-7 ATS in November

St. Louis at San Francisco, 4:15 EST
St. Louis: 5-17 ATS playing with same-season revenge
San Francisco: 21-8 ATS vs. St. Louis

Chicago at Seattle, 8:15 EST NBC
Chicago: 8-2 ATS off BB Unders
Seattle: 1-4 ATS vs. NFC North opponents


Monday, November 19th

Tennessee at Denver, 8:30 EST ESPN
Tennessee: 14-4 ATS as an underdog
Denver: 1-10 ATS as a home favorite

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[pm530]

National Football League – Write up

NFL
Write-up


Week 11 NFL schedule

Sunday, November 18

Chargers (5-4) @ Jaguars (6-3) —San Diego is +13 in turnovers last five games (13 INTs), with four special teams TDs in last three games, but their passing game has gained just 4.3/3.3 ypa in last two games, as Rivers looked lost. In last three games, Bolts gained 237-229-177 total yards, and have just two offensive TDs on 23 drives (11 3/outs) in last two games; they’re 1-3 on road, routing Denver, but giving up 38-31-35 points in three losses. Jaguars are home for first time in four weeks; they’re 2-2 at Alltel- four of their last five games went over total. Chargers are 5-0 allowing less than 31 points. Would be very concerned about Charger offense.

Chiefs (4-5) @ Colts (7-2) —Indy lost last two games, now has major injury issues, with Harrison, Freeney, Clark all banged up; they allowed 24-23 points in losing last two games, after not allowing more than 20 in any of seven wins- they’re 3-1 at home, with wins by 41-10/38-20/33-14 scores. Chiefs are 0-2 since bye, losing by 11,16, allowing 30 peg; they didn’t have first down in first half of playoff loss here LY; they’re without QB Huard, star RB Johnson here, as Alabama alum Croyle makes first NFL start. KC is 2-2 on road, 3-1 as road dog. All four Indy games since its bye stayed under the total.

Raiders (2-7) @ Vikings (3-6) — Star rookie RB Peterson is out (knee) so Viking passing game (less than six yards per attempt in seven of last eight games) will need to produce, but they have started three different QB’s in last three games, so hard to have any continuity there. Oakland is 0-5 since its bye, with losses by 14-2-4-7-11 points; they’re 1-3 on road, 3-1 as road dog, with losses by 3-14-4 points. This is their only game all season on artificial turf. Vikings are 2-2 at home; this is first time they’ve been favored since Week 1, when they beat Falcons 24-3 (-3). Under is 4-0-1 in last five Raider games, but last three games at Metrodome went over.

Browns (5-4) @ Ravens (4-5) —Baltimore is back to Boller at QB, in midst of three-game skid (three TDs on 35 drives, 10 turnovers in last two games); they lost at home for first time in four tries last week. Ravens ran ball 32 times in last two games, with 73 dropbacks, too much passing for them. In their last 18 trips to red zone, Ravens have four TDs, which is awful. Browns scored 27+ points in each of last four games, behind Raven reject Anderson; they’re just 1-3 on road, beating the 1-8 Rams, allowing 27.8 ppg. Cleveland is 3-0 vs spread when favored this season. Five of last six Raven games stayed under total, but over is 8-1 in Cleveland games.

Steelers (7-2) @ Jets (1-8) —Indy’s recent struggles put #2 seed in AFC within reach for Steelers, so they can’t afford slip-up here vs Jet squad that last won in Week 3. Pitt is 2-2 on road, 6-3 vs spread as favorite; they scored 30.3 pg in four games since its bye. Jets lost last six games (1-5 vs spread); bye week gave new starting QB Clemens time to work. Last four Jet losses are by 7-7-10-3 points- they were 11-18 on 3rd down in Clemens’ first start, after being 10-37 in previous three, so Clemens can make plays. In last five games, Steelers outrushed opponents by total of 691-323- they need to avoid letdown, after beating three divisional rivals in last three games, with Monday nighter up next.

Buccaneers (5-4) @ Falcons (3-6) —Tampa allowed 20-33-23-24 points in its losses, 14 or less in its wins; they’re 1-3 on road, winning only at Carolina. Bucs are 0-4 when they don’t win turnover battle, 5-0 when they do. Falcons scored more than 20 in only one ’07 game, although they did get 20 in last two games since bye, both wins. They allowed 14.5 pg in last two games, but opposing QB’s were Smith, Testaverde, so hard to get too excited, although win is a win. Bucs ran ball for 124-136-162 yards in last three games; they were +10/+14 in field position last two games. Last five Atlanta games, and five of last seven Tampa games stayed under total.

Cardinals (4-5) @ Bengals (3-6) —Arizona is 4-1 when it scores more than 21 points, 0-4 when it does not; Bengals allowed 24+ points in seven of last eight games, shutting down inept Ravens last week- they are 2-2 at home, allowing average of 27.3 pg. Cardinals are 1-4 on road, with losses by 3-3-2-7 points (4-1-1 as underdog, 2-1-1 on road). Bengals were +4/+1/+6 in turnovers in their three wins; they haven’t won a game without winning TO margin. Cards turned ball over 2+ times in each of last six games (-8 in last four games). Cincy is 2-3 as a favorite this season. NFC teams won six of last eight vs AFC, cutting season lead to 20-19.

Dolphins (0-9) @ Eagles (4-5) —Winless Miami gives BYU rookie Beck his first NFL vs blitzing Eagle defense that allowed 38-25 points last two weeks, after giving up 16.7 pg over first seven games of season. Fish may be 0-9, but they’ve lost five games by a FG, and are 2-1-2 vs spread as road dog. Eagles are 2-3 at home, losing last two there; they’ve only won field position battle twice this year, and both times it was by single yard, but Miami has lost FP by 13-20-17 yards last three weeks. Philly is 0-3 this season in game following a win; they’re 2-4 vs spread as favorite. Over last four games, Miami was outscored 82-20 in first half.

Patriots (9-0) @ Bills (5-4) —Buffalo is 4-0 since its bye, allowing 12 pg; they’re 4-2 at home, with pair of one-point losses (Denver/ Dallas); they’ve only lost field position battle in one game, but that was 38-7 loss at Foxboro in Week 3, when Pats outgained them 485-193, averaging 10.2 ypa, while Bills averaged just 2.8. NE scored 17 points on its four drives that started in Buffalo territory, while Bills went 3/out on six of 10 drives. Patriots come off bye; they’re 4-0 on orad, winning by 24-21-21- 21-4 points; seven of their nine games went over total. Bills won last four games that stayed under, but are 1-2 if games goes over total- they’re sticking with Losman as starting QB.

Redskins (5-4) @ Cowboys (8-1) —Dallas won last three games, by 10-21-11 points, scoring 31 pg; they’re 3-0 as home favorite this season, winning 45-35/35-7/24-14- seven of their nine games went over total, as did last four Redskin games. In their nine wins, Pokes outscored foes 170-60 in 2nd half (outscored 27-10 in second half by Patriots, their only loss). Redskins are 2-2 on road, losing 17-14 at Lambeau, 52-7 at Foxboro; they’ve been outscored 80-41 in second half of last five games. Redskins are
3-0 SU in game following loss this season, 1-1-1 vs spread as the dog. Redskin rush defense allowed 152-124-139 yards in their last three games.

Saints (4-5) @ Texans (4-5) - N.O. had won four in row before Rams ambushed them in Superdome last week; Bulger was 28-34/276 against Saints, not sure Texans can match that production (12+ IP’s in five of last six games). Saints beat Seattle, 49ers in last two road games- they averaged over seven yards per pass attempt in last three games. Texans are 2-2 at home; they’re 4-1 when allowing 21 or less points, 0-4 when they allow 26+. Saints scored 31-41-29 in last three weeks, and outsacked opponents 17-2 over last six. Saints played last six weeks in row; Texans are coming off their bye week. Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Houston games, 4-1 in Saints’ last five.

Panthers (4-5) @ Packers (8-1) —Green Bay won last four games, allowing 12.5 pg; they scored 67 points in last two games (six TD’s, seven FGA on 20 drives); their four home wins are by 3-7-3-34 points. Carolina has Vinny, Carr back at QB; they’re 0-3 since bye, scoring 9 pg, losing by 24-13-7 points. Panthers averaged 5.1 ypa or less in seven or less eight games, were outscored 41-10 in second half of last three games. Underrated Packer defense allowed only one of last eight opponents to run ball for 95+ yards- their last five foes are combined 12 for last 57 (21.1%) on third down. Last six Carolina games stayed under, as did three of last four Packer tilts.

Giants (6-3) @ Lions (6-3) —If playoffs started now, these would be two NFC wild cards, so big game in playoff positioning; Detroit has 29 takeaways in nine games, but are only +7, since March Madness doesn’t exactly stress ball security (five TO’s at Arizona last week). Lions lost field position battle in last six games; they’re 1-3 if they don’t win turnover battle. Giants had six-game win streak ended by Dallas last week; they won last three away games, allowing 12.3 pg, but averaged just 3.7/4.5/5.0 ypa in last three games overall. Detroit is 4-0 at home, scoring 31.8 pg- they somehow had -18 rushing yards last week, which isn’t easy to do in NFL.

Rams (1-8) @ 49ers (2-7) —St Louis is road favorite despite winning first game in Week 10, that’s how awful 49ers are. SF won first meeting 17-16, despite being outgained 392-186; Rams lost three fumbles in game, lost field position battle by 14 yards. Niners are on short week, with funeral of coach Nolan’s dad mixed in; they scored two TD’s on 36 drives in last three games, and scored just two TDs on last 26 drives at home. Rams came off bye and upset Saints in Superdome; Bulger was 28-34/276 in air. Despite records, thinking St Louis is in way better shape mentally at this point, especially with 49ers coming off MNF disaster- they’re four for last 25 on third down.

Bears (4-5) @ Seahawks (5-4) — Chicago’s QB situation is totally screwed up; they scored three TD’s on last 32 drives, but big one was 61-yard pass to Berrian that beat Raiders and kept Bears alive in race for playoffs. Chicago is 0-3 in game following a win; they’re 4-2 when allowing 20 or less points, 0-3 otherwise, and scored just pair of field goals in first half of last three games. Seattle is 1-3 after win; they had easy win on Monday, no travel, so it shouldn’t be too much of an issue. Bears been held under 100 rushing yards in each of last seven games. Five of last seven Seattle games stayed under total, as did Chicago’s last three contests.

Monday, November 19

Titans (6-3) @ Broncos (5-4) —Tennessee is 3-1 on road, losing only by FG at Tampa; three of their four road games were decided by three or less points- they had three-game win streak snapped by jags last week, as Jax outrushed Titans 166-62. Denver won for just second time in seven games at KC last week; they’re 2-3 at home, with both wins by FG. Bronco offense can’t carry team, scoring just three FGs on last 20 drives that started 80+ yards from goal line. Titans turned ball over seven times in last two games- they’re 4-1 if they turn it over less than three times. Under is 6-2-1 in Tennessee games, but seven of last eight Denver games went over.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Tips & Trends

NFL


Sunday, November 18

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Tips and Trends
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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (CBS | 1 PM ET)

League insiders are unsure if anything can stop this Cleveland offense that is averaging an impressive 28 points per game. On the other hand Baltimore comes into this contest with one of the worst offenses in the league, one that is averaging just 11 points per game over their past 6 contests and will have backup QB Kyle Boller as the starter. EDGE: BROWNS

Cleveland comes into this contest with the worst defense in the NFL, one that is allowing their opposition to score a whopping 29 points per game. While Baltimore enters with the leagues No. 3 overall defense in the NFL, allowing just 15 points per game at home. EDGE RAVENS

The Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the AFC.
The Browns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss.
The Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games during Week 11.
The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Home team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.


San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (CBS | 1 PM ET)

Some league insiders remain cautious as to whether this San Diego Chargers team “is back” to their old form. Despite defeating the Colt’s last Sunday night, their offense was only able to manage 177 total yards and needed 6 Manning interceptions a 2 missed filed goals to get the 23-21 win. The Chargers offense has been very unpredictable so far this season as they have scored 41, 28, 35, 17 and 23 their last five games. EDGE: JAGUARS
Even though the Chargers offense has been up-and-down this season, the team has won four-out-of-five and are right in the t-hick of the division lead. EDGE: CHARGERS
Some league insiders are becoming increasingly concerned over the loss of defense end Luis Castillo who will be out six weeks after having surgery to repair a tendon in his right knee. Castillo was a big reason why the Charges have been one of the best in the league at stopping to run, and their last rado game saw them give up 296 rushing yards to Vikings RB Adrian Peterson. EDGE: JAGUARS

Some team insiders are reporting that Jacksonville players and coaches are happy to be returning home as they just finished a three game road trip. The Jaguars offense has also started to click and will get even healthier with the return of QB David Garrard from an ankle injury. EDGE: JAGUARS
Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Jags are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a winning team.
Jags are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
The OVER is 7-3 in the Jags last 10 games against the AFC.


Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles (CBS | 1 PM ET)

The Dolphins will try to find out if rookie John Beck, their second-round draft pick out of Brigham Young, is their quarterback of the future by making him the starter for the season's final seven games. "I just want to make the most of it," Beck said. "I've been working real hard in practice and on the sidelines in games to try to prepare myself." Beck cannot be any worse then what the winless Dolphins have already seen this year. EDGE: DOLPHINS
Despite a rather poor 4-5 start t the season, a win over the Dolphins means that the Eagles can get to .500 for the first time this season, and are just two games behind the leading New York Giants and Detroit Lions in the NFL wild-card race. Eagles still have the 9th overall offense in the league and a defense that is ranked No. 12 overall, allowing just 20 points per game and only 93 yards rushing. EDGE: EAGLES
Dolphins are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 November games.
Dolphins are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games against a losing team.
Eagles are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win.
The UNDER is 5-2 in the Eagles last 7 games following a SU win.


Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings (CBS | 1 PM ET)

Oakland’s offense has been horrible over their last 5 games as they have put up 14, 10, 9, 17 and 6 points over their last 5 games. However they will have former Vikings QB Daunte Culpeper starting, who defeated another former team in the Dolphins 35-17 earlier in the year. EDGE: RAIDERS
Vikings rookie RB Adrian Peterson is out of this game, and Chester Taylor will be the starter. Taylor isn't as dominate as Peterson, but he is averaging over 5 yards per carry this season. The Raiders rush defense haven't been stopping many, as they are allowing 145 rushing yards per game, which is key due to the team's QB questions. EDGE: VIKINGS
Raiders are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a 15- effort.
Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a 10+ loss.
Vikings are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on turf.
Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
The OVER is 4-0 in the Vikings last 4 games following a SU loss.


Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (CBS | 1 PM ET)

Some league insiders don’t believe that Kansas City has the offensive firepower to stay within two scores of one of the best offenses in the league. Kansas City offense is very vanilla and ranks 27th in the NFL and averages just 13 points per game on the road this season. BIG EDGE: COLTS
League insiders are reporting the Kansas City will start back-up quarterback Brodie Croyle this weekend who will fill in for the injured Damon Huard. Croyle was 17-for-30 for 162 yards, with one interception, in last Sunday’s loss, and has said he is ready for Sunday's game. EDGE: CHIEFS
Some team insiders are becoming increasingly concerned about the mounting injuries the Colt’s have suffered throughout the season. In last weeks loss against San Diego, the were without without six starters, and still have a number of questionable starters. Good news is they return hom where they are 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games. EDGE: COLTS
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against a winning team.
Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on turf.
Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall
Chiefs are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetins.


Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (FOX | 1 PM ET)

The Carolina Panthers are in trouble. They enter this game without a healthy quarterback, Vinny Testaverde (Achilles), David Carr (back), and Jake Delhomme (elbow). Panthers insiders haven't named a starting quarterback just yet for this game eithe, but on a good note all four of their season wins have come on the road no matter who was the quarterback. EDGE: PANTHERS
The Packers are rolling - winners of four straight. QB Brett Favre has called this streak "wonderful" and the offense looks to be clicking. This is bad news for a Panthers defense which gave up over 300 passing yards and four touchdowns to Favre and company last time these teams met. EDGE: PACKERS
Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Panthers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
Packers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against a losing team.
Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.


New York Giants at Detriot Lions (FOX | 1 PM ET)

The Giants look to bounce back from suffering a 31-20 loss to the Cowboys last week, which was their first loss in over two months The Giants offense has been rolling along on the orad this year to the tone of 30 points per game for 415 yards per game. The Lions defense was just lit up by the lonely Cardinals for 31 points. EDGE: GIANTS
The Lions have been tough at home, going 4-0 SU. They are also enjoying their homecooking with scoring an average of 31 ppg at home. Combine this with their defense only allowing 15 ppg over its last three - and you have a touch Detriot team. EDGE: LIONS
Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the NFC.
Giants are 1-10 AS in their last 11 Week 11 games.
Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss.
Lions are 1-4 in their last 5 ames during November.
Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.


Tampa Bay Bucs at Atlanta Falcons (FOX | 1 PM ET)

This is a good situational setting for Tampa Bay as they come into this contest off their bye week. Tampa really needed the rest of they have already placed 12 players, including three offensive starters, on injured reserve. Its defense is one of the best in the league (ranked 6th overall) and are allowing just 16 points per game. This is great news going against a Falcons team which are scoring just 19 ppg at home. EDGE: BUCS
The struggling Atlanta Falcons offense has finally found someting with QB Joey Harrington. They are winners of two-striaght and have put together back-to-back 20 points games for the first time this year.Their defense has also stepped-up of late only allowing 17 ppg over their last three games. EDGE: FALCONS
Bucs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
Bucs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games as a favorite.
Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Favorite is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.


New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans (FOX | 1 PM ET)

The Saints are rolling on offense right now, averaging 30 points per game over their last five games. Saints are 4-1 SU during this time period while the Texans are losers three of their last four. Houston has given up an average of 30 ppg over their last three which just what the Saints are putting up on offense. BIG EDGE: SAINTS
The Houston Texans have lost their mojo, winning only two out of their last seven games. Good news is Matt Schaub is expected to start on Sunday, and Schaub (concussion) has said he "feeling much better". He has put up some serious passing numbers already this season and the Saints defense has allowed a combined 61 points over their last two games. EDGE: TEXANS
Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a losing home team.
Saints are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a SU loss.
Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
The OVER is 5-2-1 in the Texans last 8 games overall.


Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (FOX | 1 PM ET)

The Arizona Cardinals won a sloppy game last Sunday against the Lions, which saw them put up their highest point total (31) in a month. The Cards are just 1-4 SU on the road, but face a Bengals defense, which has been one of the worst in the league, allowing 27 ppg at home. EDGE: CARDINALS
The Bengals couldn't find the endzone last week, but did grab a total of 271 yards through the air against a tough Ravens defense. It was also good to see suspended WR Chris Henry back in action, grabbing 4 balls for 99 yards, and accordingto league insiders the Bengals offense is getting much better with their wide-outs now back at 100 percent. EDGE: BENGALS
Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games a road underdog.
Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.
Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.
The OVER is 5-0 in the Bengals last 5 games as a favorite.


Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (FOX | 4:05 PM ET)

Some league insiders believe that Pittsburgh is one of the most well rounded teams in the league. They come into New York ranked No 6 in the NFL in total offense and a defense that is No. 1 in the league allowing just 250 yards per game. On the Season, the Steelers have outscored their opponents by a 28-14 average, which is bad news for a 1-8 Jets team. EDGE: STEELERS
The Steelers seem to have a hard time “getting up” against weaker opponents. Their 2 loses this season came against Arizona and Denver, both played on the road. The Jets have had a week off to prepare for the Steelers and are expected to get WR Laveranues Coles back as well. EDGE: JETS
Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.
Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against the AFC.
Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.
Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.


Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (FOX | 4:15 PM ET)

The Bears are looking to go on their playoff run, after a come from behind victory over the Raiders. QB Rex Grossman lef the comeback with 142 passing yards and a touchdown. Grossman will get the start in this one, and has said it's good to be back. Seattle's defense has been up-and-down this year, but is allowing 216 passing yards per game. EDGE: BEARS
The Seahawks are one of the toughest ome teams in the league, and proved this on Money night with a 24-0 win over the 49ers. QB Matt Hasselbeck has been throwing the ball very well of late, inlcuding 278 yards in that Monday night game. Hasselbeck and company at home has been tough to stop with them averaging a little over 34 ppg at home. EDGE: SEAHAWKS
Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 11.
Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win.
Seahawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against the NFC.
Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 11.
The UNDER is 7-3 in the Seahawks last 10 games against the NFC.


St. Louis Rams at SF 49ers (FOX | 4:15 PM ET)

The Rams finally got a win last time out, a 37-29 victory over the Saints. Don't look now but the Rams offense has put up a combined 57 points over their last two games. This is good news for the Rams, as they are facing a weak 49ers defense which is allowing 25 ppg over their last three. EDGE: RAMS
The 49ers offense has fallen off the map, scoring just an average of 9 ppg over their last three games. QB Alex Smith said that his shoulder is still "killing him" and it has shown throwing for only 114 yards in a Monday night defeat. EDGE: RAMS
Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a losing team.
Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 11.
49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a losing team.
Rams are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings.


Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (FOX | 4:15 PM ET)

The Redskins started 2-0 and appeared to be on their way to 3-0, leading the Giants 17-3 at halftime in Week 3. But New York scored 21 second-half points to deal Washington its first defeat heading into its bye week, and the Redskins have alternated wins and losses since then. The skins own the eighth-best rushing attack in the league at 132.1 yards per game, and has run for 454 yards in the past two weeks. This is good news against a Cowboys defense which has struggled against the run. EDGE: REDSKINS
The Redskins have been vulnerable against the pass, allowing 218.3 yards a game through the air to rank 22nd in the league. Making matters worse, Pro Bowl safety Sean Taylor will miss at least two weeks with a sprained knee. This is all very good news for the Cowboys and their star QB Tony Romo, who is completing 65 percent of his passes. EDGE: COWBOYS
Redskins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a winning team
Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 November games.
Cowboys are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Underdog is 18-5 ATS in the last 23 meetings.


New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (NBC | 8:15 PM ET)

The Patriots can do no wrong, going 9-0 on the season. The Pats have already defeated these Bills by 31 points this season, and now have an extra week to prepare. Bills defense has been tough, but their offense doesn't come close the Patriots 39 ppg. EDGE: PATRIOTS
The Bills have been a nice story this year at 5-4, and hot right now winning five of six. QB JP Losman has won his starting job back and is completing more then 60 percent of his passes. The Bills all of revenge on their minds, as they want to prove this team is much better this time around for this Pats. Every Bills home games this year has been a tough game for their opponent. EDGE: BILLS
Pats are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a 10+ favorite.
Pats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on turf.
Bills are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as home underdog.
Bills are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

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[pm530]

National Football League – Cheat Sheet

NFL
NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 11


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Cheat Sheet
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Sunday, November 18

Arizona at Cincinnati (-3)

Why Cardinals Cover: Playing for a share of the NFC West lead. Kurt Warner getting healthier and playing better. Are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record while the Bengals are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Why Bengals cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite. Home team has won last seven meetings. Receiver Chris Henry returned with a bang last week with four catches for 99 yards. Edgerrin James is only averaging 2.8 yards per carry for his career against Cincinnati.

Total (48 1/2): Combined teams allowing almost 50 points per game.


Carolina at Green Bay (-9 1/2)

Why Panthers cover: Are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight meetings. Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Why Packers cover: Are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Have NFL’s best passing attack (yes, even better than New England’s). Brett Favre has thrown 20 TDs in eight career game against Carolina. Finally found running game with Ryan Grant rumbling for 119 yards against Minnesota’s NFC-best rush defense. Panthers have yet to win at home this season.

Total (37 1/2): Under is 6-0 in Panthers’ last six games overall.


Cleveland at Baltimore (+2 1/2)

Why Browns cover: Coming off heartbreaking loss to Pittsburgh last week. Are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Reeling Ravens have lost three straight. Beat Baltimore 27-13 in first meeting this year.

Why Ravens cover: Will turn to Kyle Boller in place of Steve McNair who has been horrible and unable to protect the football (seven fumbles). Willis McGahee has rushed for 209 yards and two touchdowns in two career games vs. Cleveland. Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Total (43 1/2): Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Baltimore.


Kansas City at Indianapolis (-14 1/2)

Why Chiefs cover: Have held opponents to only four rushing touchdowns. Colts are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and will be without defensive end Dwight Freeney who is out for the season with a foot injury.

Why Colts cover: Trying to avoid losing three straight after starting season 7-0. Are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. Chiefs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight meetings. Brodie Croyle will be making his first career start at QB for Kansas City. Chiefs Running back Larry Johnson still out.

Total (43 1/2): Under is 6-1 in Chiefs’ last seven road games and 4-0 in Colts’ last four games overall.


Miami at Philadelphia (-10)

Why Dolphins cover: Have won four of their last six meetings including two of three in Philadelphia. Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Jesse Chatman had breakout game last week with 124 yards rushing while filling in for the injured Ronnie Brown.

Why Eagles cover: Brian Westbrook is one of the league’s most versatile weapons and has 1,219 all-purpose yards and nine touchdowns this season. Miami is allowing opponents to rush for 149.7 yards per contest. Rookie John Beck will start at quarterback for Miami.

Total (40 1/2): Under is 7-2 in Philadelphia’s last nine games on grass.


New Orleans at Houston (-1)

Why Saints cover: Look to rebound from embarrassing 37-29 home loss to the Rams who were winless at the time. Are third in the NFL with 194 first downs. Held opponents to seven sacks all season. Are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games.

Why Texans cover: Get stud wide receiver Andre Johnson back after being out since mid-September. Saints are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Total: (47 1/2): Over is 4-1 in Saints’ last five road games and 4-1 in their last five games overall.


Oakland at Minnesota (-5 1/2)

Why Raiders cover: Daunte Culpepper will make his first career start against the team that drafted him. Vikings without league’s leading rusher, Adrian Peterson, because of a torn LCL ligament. Minnesota has used three quarterbacks this season and none have a QB rating better than 66 percent.

Why Vikings cover: Holding opponents to 3 yards per rush, second-best in the NFL. Oakland only averaging 155.8 passing yards per game while allowing opponents to rush for 1,298 yards and 13 touchdowns this season.

Total (35 1/2): Under is 12-3-2 in Raiders’ last 17 road games and 4-0-1 in their last five games overall. Teams own two of the worst passing offenses on the NFL.


San Diego at Jacksonville (-3)

Why Chargers cover: Have won four of last five games. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

Why Jaguars cover: Are back home after going 2-1 on a three-game road trip. Have held LaDainian Tomlinson to 94 yards rushing in last two meetings. Will have starting QB David Garrard back from an ankle injury. Home team has won and covered last two meetings. Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.

Total (40 1/2): Over is 4-0 in Chargers’ last four road games and 4-1 in Jaguars’ last five games overall.


Tampa Bay at Atlanta (+3)

Why Buccaneers cover: Coming off bye week. Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings in Atlanta. Trying to hold division lead in tight NFC South. Are holding opponents to 16 points per game while Atlanta is only averaging 15 points per contest. Favorite is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.

Why Falcons cover: Will have QB Byron Leftwich back from an ankle injury. Have won and covered last two meetings. Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings. Warrick Dunn has brought new life to the running game.

Total (35 1/2): Under is 4-0 in Buccaneers’ last four vs. NFC and 8-1 in Falcons’ last nine vs. NFC South.


N.Y. Giants at Detroit (+3)

Why Giants cover: Lead the NFL with 31 sacks while the Lions have allowed a league-high 32 sacks. Road team has won last five meetings and is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Why Lions cover: Haven’t lost at home this season and are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games. Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Total (49 1/2): Under is 4-1 in Giants’ last five road games.


Pittsburgh at N.Y. Jets (+9 1/2)

Why Steelers cover: Have best defense in league. Jets are only 1-4 ATS at home and 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. New York is worst in the NFL in rushing first downs allowed, rushing yards allowed and average yards per passing play allowed.

Why Jets cover: Are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a bye week. Kellen Clemens was solid in his first game as the Jets’ new starting quarterback. Willie Parker is questionable with a hip injury.

Total (40 1/2): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.


Washington at Dallas (-10 1/2)

Why Redskins cover: Holding Terrell Owens to 38.3 receiving yards per game for his career. Clinton Portis finally appears healthy and has rushed for 333 yards in his past two games. Are 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Why Cowboys cover: Are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. Redskins will be without Pro Bowl safety Sean Taylor who has a knee injury. Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four games and 1-4 ATS in its last five meetings in Dallas. Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Total (46 1/2): Under is 5-2-2 in the last nine meetings and 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Dallas.


St. Louis at San Francisco (+3)

Why Rams cover: Coming off first victory of season, over New Orleans. Lead the NFL in interceptions. Trent Dilfer will start at QB for 49ers. San Francisco has totaled fewer than 200 yards of offense five times this season.

Why 49ers cover: Frank Gore has six touchdowns in five games versus the Rams who have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns this season. Are holding Steven Jackson to 3.7 yards per carry for his career. Rams are 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings and 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in San Francisco. Underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.

Total (40 1/2): Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.


Chicago at Seattle (-6)

Why Bears cover: Have outstanding special teams. Won last two meetings. Holding opponents to 12.7 points in their last three games.

Why Seahawks cover: Have only allowed five passing touchdowns this season. Rex Grossman will start at QB for Chicago. Have changed offense to be more pass oriented, taking pressure off a banged-up Shaun Alexander. Bears having difficulty running the ball all season.

Total (37 1/2): Under is 7-1 in Seahawks’ last eight home games.


New England at Buffalo (+15)

Why Patriots cover: Will want to silence critics (Don Shula, Mercury Morris) who have voiced negative opinions about the Patriots possibly going undefeated. Beat Buffalo 38-7 in late September. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Buffalo and 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings overall. Favorite is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Why Bills cover: Are 5-1 since losing to New England in Week 3. Holding opponents to 17.8 points per game at home. Are 5-0 ATS at home.

Total (46 1/2): Under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Buffalo and 16-5 in the last 21 meetings overall.


Monday, November 19

Tennessee at Denver (-2 1/2)

Why Titans cover: Could get run-stopping defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth back from a hamstring injury. League’s fourth-best rush offense gets to face NFL’s 31st-ranked rush defense. Are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Broncos are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games.

Why Broncos cover: Rookie Selvin Young filled in admirably for an injured Travis Henry, rushing for 109 yards and a score against a tough Chiefs defense. Are averaging 5.66 yards per offensive play, sixth best in the league. Have averaged 36 points per game in their last two meetings while holding the Titans to 13 points per contest. Home team has won eight of last 10 meetings.

Total (38): Over is 9-1 in Broncos’ last 10 home games and 13-3 in their last 16 games overall.

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[pm530]

National Football League - Gameday

NFL
Gameday


Sunday, November 18

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NFL Gameday
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Sunday NFL Gameday

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots will return to action on Sunday night when they hit the road to play J.P. Losman and the Buffalo Bills. Here is your NFL Gameday:

San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) (Total 41)
ALLTEL Stadium, 1:00pm ET (CBS)

The Chargers improved to 5-4 on the season with a 23-21 home win over the Colts last weekend. Despite the victory, though, Philip Rivers didn't have a very good outing for San Diego - he completed 13-of-24 pass attempts for just 104 yards, with no touchdowns and two interceptions. LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 76 yards and a score off 21 carries on the day, and Darren Sproles returned two kicks for touchdowns.

Jacksonville is now 6-3 this year after they knocked off the Titans 28-13 on the road last time out. Quinn Gray went 13-of-23 for 101 yards passing against Tennessee, with one touchdown and no interceptions. However, Gray is expected to return to the sidelines this week in favor of David Garrard, who has recovered from his ankle injury. Maurice Jones-Drew ran for 101 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries in last weekend's victory.

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-14.5) (Total 43.5)
RCA Dome, 1:00pm ET (CBS)

The Chiefs lost 27-11 to the Broncos at home last week, and they're making some changes for this game against the Colts. Damon Huard went 6-of-15 for 83 yards with two INTs against Denver, and he'll go to the bench in favor of Brodie Croyle on Sunday; Croyle went 17-of-30 for 162 yards against the Broncos. The Chiefs will also use Priest Holmes as their primary back once again; the veteran RB ran for 65 yards last time out.

Peyton Manning was picked off six times in Indianapolis' loss to the Chargers in Week 10, but he still almost led his team back to a win in that contest. Overall Manning went 34-of-56 for 328 yards, with TD strikes to Reggie Wayne and Kenton Keith. Wayne caught 10 balls for 140 yards in that game, while RB Joseph Addai rushed for only 56 yards on 22 carries. Marvin Harrison sat out last week, and is uncertain for this Sunday.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) (Total 47)
Texas Stadium, 4:15pm ET (FOX)

The Redskins missed a chance to gain some ground in the NFC East with a 33-25 home loss to the Eagles last time out, but they'll get another opportunity this weekend against the Cowboys. Jason Campbell went 23-of-34 for 215 yards against Philadelphia, with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. James Thrash caught two balls in the end zone, while Clinton Portis rushed for 137 yards on his 30 attempts.

Tony Romo tossed four touchdown strikes last weekend to lead the Cowboys to a 31-20 road win over the rival Giants. Romo completed 20-of-28 pass attempts for 247 yards in that contest, with those four TDs and one interception. Terrell Owens had a big game for Dallas, with six catches for 125 yards and two scores. Patrick Crayton and Tony Curtis also had TD grabs in the contest, while Marion Barber rushed for only 34 yards.

New England Patriots (-16) at Buffalo Bills (Total 46.5)
Ralph Wilson Stadium, 8:15pm ET (NBC)

The Patriots were off last week, so they'll be looking to continue their winning streak this Sunday night when they take on the Bills. New England's last outing came in Week 9, when they knocked off the Cotls 24-20 at the RCA Dome. Tom Brady completed 21-of-32 pass attempts for 255 yards in that game, with three TDs and two INTs. Randy Moss caught nine balls for 145 yards and a score, while Laurence Maroney ran for 59 yards.

The Bills scored 10 points in the fourth quarter to slip past the winless Dolphins 13-10 on the road last weekend. J.P. Losman went just 12-of-23 for 157 yards passing in that game, with no touchdowns and one interception; however, he'll get the start again for Buffalo on Sunday night. Marshawn Lynch ran for 61 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries against Miami, but a sprained ankle has him unlikely to contribute this weekend.

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[pm530]

National Football League – over/under plays

NFL
Total bias: Week 11 over/under plays


Sunday, November 18

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NFL over/under picks
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New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans – over 48

Forget about Thanksgiving, quarterback Matt Schaub must think Christmas has arrived with the return of his star receiver. Andre Johnson hasn't played since Week 2 but he's ready to make an impact for the Texans.

Keep in mind Houston has only had Schaub, Johnson and running back Ahman Green on the field together twice this season. Expect Schaub to connect with Johnson for at least one big play.

The Saints continue to score with ease and struggle to prevent their opponents from doing the same. Cornerback Jason David may go down as the worst free-agent signing ever in professional football.


Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles – under 40 1/2

The John Beck era has begun in Miami. The 26-year-old quarterback was named the starter for this weekend's game to try and spark a lackluster offense. Cam Cameron's game plan will likely be run-heavy in an attempt to limit Beck from too many long passing downs.

I expect Philly to jump out to an early lead and milk the clock. The Eagles just want to grab a win and come out of this game healthy.


Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos – under 38

Neither one of these two teams is having a great offensive season. Javon Walker – Denver's most explosive weapon – has been out the majority of the year because of an uncooperative knee.

The Broncos have struggled stopping the run all season but Tennessee's top two backs are both a little dinged up. Chris Brown (ankle) and LenDale White (knee) will both play but may be limited.

As mentioned above, Vince Young isn't giving the Titans' consistent quarterback play. Expect a quick game filled with three-and-outs.

Last week’s record: 3-0

Season record: 18-12

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Long Sheet

CFL
Long Sheet



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Sunday, November 18
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WINNIPEG (11 - 7 - 1) at TORONTO (11 - 7) - 11/18/2007, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
TORONTO is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all games this season.
TORONTO is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
TORONTO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
TORONTO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 this season.
TORONTO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus division opponents this season.
TORONTO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in games played on turf this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 4-4 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 6-3 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SASKATCHEWAN (13 - 6) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (14 - 3 - 1) - 11/18/2007, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 9 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 78-49 ATS (+24.1 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 40-22 ATS (+15.8 Units) when playing on a Sunday since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 71-44 ATS (+22.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 7-4 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 6-5 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Write up

CFL
Write-up
CFL Playoffs


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Sunday, November 18
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CFL Playoffs, Semi-Finals

Keep in mind, the two home teams had byes last week, while the visitors won close opening round games.

Winnipeg (11-7-1) @ Toronto (11-7) -- Argonauts won seven in a row to earn the bye, after being 4-7 at one point; they lost in first meeting at Winnipeg, 15-13 (+6.5), then beat Bombers at home 31-23 (-3) before winning rubber match 16-8 three weeks ago, also at home (-5). Winnipeg won three of last four games, surviving Montreal last week. 10 of the last 13 Winnipeg games stayed under the total.

Saskatchewan (13-6) @ BC Lions (14-3-1) -- BC won last eight games, but coasted down stretch, not covering last four; they won 42-12 at Regina in first meeting vs Riders (+3), then lost at home 21-9 three weeks later (-4.5) before winning rubber game 37-34 in Week 12 (-1) at Taylor Field. Roughriders won six of its last seven games; they're 7-2 vs spread on road this year, 3-0 in last three on foreign soil. Lions beat Saskatchewan 45-18 in this round last season, on their way to Grey Cup title.

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[pm530]

Canadian Football League – Hot Lines

CFL
Hot Lines


Sunday, November 18

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Makin’ Canadian bacon: CFL divisional finals
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Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Toronto Argonauts (-6 1/2, 45 1/2)
Sunday, Nov. 18, 1 p.m. ET

Last Sunday's conditions at Canad Inns Stadium weren't ideal for watching football. It was windy, cold and the Blue Lightning dancers were bundled up like they just came back from an afternoon caribou hunt on the tundra. The last thing the shivering Winnipeg fans needed was the Bombers' season boiling down to a Troy Westwood field goal attempt with the wind howling around him.

But the 40-year-old with the 60 percent success rate this season made it when it counted and sent the Alouettes back to Montreal. His reward is a trip to the Rogers Centre, where the wind will be non-existent and the Blue Thunder cheerleaders will show a little more leg. (I'm not kidding you, that's the Argos dance team name. Blue Lightning sounds sexy. Blue Thunder somehow sounds ... heavy).

Toronto has been on an unbelievable run in the second half of the season, both straight-up and against the spread. The Boatmen even posted a pair of 10-point wins over Winnipeg later in the season, in Weeks 13 and 18. Toronto only managed three offensive touchdowns in those two wins, however, and two of those were short drives set up by the defense or special teams.

The Argos scored 41 points against the Riders in the regular-season finale, but that was a game that meant absolutely nothing to Saskatchewan. You have to go back more than a month to find a good offensive performance by the Boatmen in a game that mattered to both teams.

Luckily Toronto has both motivation and time on its side. The Grey Cup is at the Rogers Centre this year and 2007 might be the last for head coach Michael Clemons to roam the sidelines. The Argos also had a bye week to sort out their offensive questions.

That makes it a little easier to lay the points because I have no doubts at all when it comes to Toronto's defense or special teams. The Argonauts won 14 paydays in 18 games this season because of those two units so I won't look the other way this Sunday.

By the way, just because the Argos cheerleaders picked a bad name doesn't make them bad people. Their page on the Argos website is definitely worth a visit.

Pick: Argos -6 1/2


Saskatchewan Roughriders at BC Lions (-7 1/2, 55)
Sunday, Nov. 18, 4:30 p.m. ET

Another Prairie team loses its elements edge as the Riders make their way to BC Place this Sunday. They might not mind playing indoors, though. Saskatchewan walked away from Vancouver with wins in both the preseason and the regular season.

The Lions, however, are likely to have the comfort edge in BC Place on Sunday. It was the site of their Western final wins over the Riders both last year and in 2004. The crowd noise in the domed stadium, whether genuine or piped-in, was a huge issue for Saskatchewan a year ago. So coaches blasted noise into this week's practices to recreate the atmosphere they expect in Vancouver on Sunday.

It all adds to the teams' rivalry. The Roughriders and Lions really don't like each other. It’s not hate created by hype, it's hate created by the league's two most physical teams playing each other three times per season. And I love it. What are the late afternoon kickoffs in the NFL on Sunday? Washington at Dallas? Chicago at Seattle? Ha! Don’t even bother with that tripe. Rider Pride taking on the defending champs is the game to watch.

I don't like laying more than a touchdown with the Leos for a couple of reasons. For starters, they haven't played a big game in weeks. They took the regular-season finale against Calgary off and their preceding three games were against non-playoff teams. BC went 4-0 SU in those games but didn’t look convincing in any of them. Maybe they were coasting, but it's hard to jump back into top gear if you've been coasting since Oct. 5, the date of their last meaningful win over a playoff team.

I'm also not huge on Jarious Jackson to light up a quality CFL defense like that of the Riders. I think BC will win and Jackson will manage the game, I just don't think Saskatchewan is ready to be bowled over.

The Riders' offense might once again struggle with the noise, but not as much as it'll struggle with BC's playmakers on defense. Going the other way, I see Joe Smith being the star of the game as the Leos control the clock and win the field position battle. It should be a great game, just a lower-scoring one than the teams' scoring averages would suggest.

Pick: under 55

Last week: 0-2

Year to date: 35-39

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