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  • #46
    Do you know when the difference between the projected line and the real line is significant, any records? I figured this out for the Buff/NE game this week and it has NE as only a 0.4 point favorite. I use a different number system that predicts the line that has worked well for me over the years (this has NE as a 12 point fav). Thanks.
    Check out all of my past picks at www.Byeweekpicks.com
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    2014 NFL Record: 36-30-1 (55%), +5.5 units

    2013 NFL Record: 34-26-1 (57%)

    2012 NFL Record: 41-30-2 (58%)
    +9 units (1unit=6% of bankroll)

    2011 NFL record: 34-25-2 (58%)
    +3.4 units

    2010 NFL Record: 29-16-2 (64%)
    +15.1 units

    2009 NFL Record: 37-24-4 (61%)
    +16.3 units

    2008 NFL Record: 39-24-3 (62%)
    +16.8 Units

    2007 NFL Record: 42-27-2 (61%)
    +14.7 Units

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    • #47
      Originally posted by frankb03
      What happened last Monday has bearing on tonights game.
      Division leader giving 10. Down by 17 at the half.
      Stick those stats up your ass. SF has 0 first downs so far.
      I'm playing Seattle -4, very very large second half.

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      • #48
        You and I both!!!
        "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

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        • #49
          Originally posted by roccodean
          Do you know when the difference between the projected line and the real line is significant, any records? I figured this out for the Buff/NE game this week and it has NE as only a 0.4 point favorite. I use a different number system that predicts the line that has worked well for me over the years (this has NE as a 12 point fav). Thanks.
          OK
          Average power rating of opponents played: NEW ENGLAND 21.8, BUFFALO 22.3

          YPP
          NE with 6.5 and 1 TO
          Defense 5.1 and 2.2 TO

          Buff with 5 and 1.1 TO
          Defense 5.6 and 1.8 TO

          That is 15 and TO about the same.
          Defense adds more clout to New England.

          In my opinion playing Indy skewed the opponents played (NE). NE had softer opponents up until the Indy game!
          I believe Buffalo has played a much rougher season so far and has handled the points at home extremely well.
          Last edited by Spearit; 11-12-2007, 11:35 PM.
          "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

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          • #50
            Originally posted by Spearit
            You and I both!!!
            Nice to see you cashed Steve

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            • #51
              I had the under on a small play as well- they won't come that easy- I swear I emptied my account on the Seahawks- Little foolish but I could not see SF scoring. Gore gave me a thrill at the beginning but it worked out great.
              Congrats Rinna!
              "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

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