MNF Info and Variables

[Spearit]

Seems like a lot of if's this game, Bill.
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Trends

SAN FRANCISCO is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.

SEATTLE is 58-84 ATS (-34.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.

SEATTLE is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

SEATTLE is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons

SEATTLE is 3-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Spearit]

San Francisco TE Vernon Davis vs. Seattle OLB Julian Peterson
Right now the go-to guy in San Francisco's anemic passing game is Davis and he's starting to put up solid numbers. He is coming off a seven-catch performance last week and he has 25 receptions for the season. He is a tough matchup because he is so athletic and he has excellent speed. The 49ers can motion him, he can line up in the slot, and he can even line up wide, where he really knows how to stretch the field.


Peterson is Seattle's best pass-rusher off the edge (seven sacks in eight games), but his coaches may use him in coverage versus Davis because of his athletic ability. He has excellent turn-and-run skills and, athletically, he matches up well versus Davis. He has a great first step and he closes on the ball very well. Ironically, if he has a lot of pass coverage responsibilities he won't be able to be as effective versus the run and that could really open up some off-tackle lanes. The 49ers will likely throw a lot of quick passes out of three and five step drops and Davis will run a lot of quick outs and curls. Peterson will have to close fast to eliminate his yards after catch.

[Spearit]

Can San Francisco contain Seattle's pass rush?
With a banged up quarterback, Alex Smith (sore shoulder), it is imperative that the 49ers' offensive line protects him versus Seattle. However, this group has given up 28 sacks in eight games, which is near the bottom of the league and the Seahawks have generated 23 sacks, which ranks them at No. 7 in the NFL. They create a lot of their pressure by blitzing their outside linebackers, Julian Peterson and Leroy Hill, and they will even bring their middle linebacker, Lofa Tatupu, at times. They also have athletic defensive ends, Patrick Kerney and Darryl Tapp, who will bring a lot of speed off the edge against the 49ers' offensive tackles, tight ends, and backs.


If Smith tries to utilize seven-step drops, Seattle's pressure will get to him, so the 49ers will likely shorten their passing game with short slants and quick hitches in an attempt to negate the rush. However, pressure off the edge changes the blocking schemes and the last thing San Francisco wants to do is to be forced to keep tight end Vernon Davis and back Frank Gore in to block because the short passing game is critical to their success. The Seahawks will mix up their pressure packages to confuse the 49ers and it will lead to sacks and mistakes by Smith.

[Spearit]

Where is the 49ers' pass rush?
At the beginning of the season the 49ers really liked their new 3-4 defensive scheme and its pass-rush capabilities, but through eight games they are getting very little production. In fact, during the last four games they have tallied only two sacks and opposing quarterbacks have had all day to throw. In the 3-4 defense the pressure needs to come from the outside linebackers, but Tully Banta-Cain and Parys Haralson are not making many plays off the edge and they really miss Manny Lawson, who is out for the season with an injury.


Because of those flaws the coaches are being forced to utilize blitzes by their inside linebackers and safeties to get to the quarterback, but that really puts them at risk if the pressure doesn't get there because it puts their corners on an island in too many man-to-man situations. They also tend to be a little undisciplined at times and they will lose some gap integrity with their rushes, which could lead to some Seattle success on screens and draw plays.


Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck will shred this defense if he isn't pressured, so the 49ers may have to gamble with their blitz package and hope that their guys outside can hold up in coverage.

[Spearit]

Can Seattle get their running game on track?
The running game used to be the bread and butter of this football team with Shaun Alexander and a very talented offensive line. However, through eight games this may be the most underachieving unit in the NFL. Alexander runs soft, he rarely battles for extra yards after contact, he can't elude defenders on the second level (3.3 yard average per carry) and his offensive line is really struggling to open run lanes.


San Francisco is 24th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game and they are not very big or physical. To stop the run they have to ask their linebackers to step up, fill and even run blitz at times because they are not very stout inside, especially at the defensive tackle position. Plus, their two best run stoppers are inside linebacker Patrick Willis and outside linebacker Banta-Cain, but a lot of those tackles come on the second level.


Look for Seattle to run over the left side behind left tackle Walter Jones and Alexander must finally run with commitment and also follow the lead block of his fullback. The 49ers will try to confuse the Seahawks' offensive line with pre-snap shifting and movement, but Seattle just needs to come right at the 49ers.

[Spearit]

These are two proud franchises that are in the middle of disappointing seasons and neither have played up to expectations. With a young roster and late season success a year ago the 49ers looked poised to make a playoff run in 2007. However, injuries and dramatically inconsistent quarterback play has turned them into a quickly-fading team that is almost non-competitive.


Seattle expected to be a Super Bowl contender, but they are a classic team of underachievers. They have a soft running game, an up-and-down defense and they are not playing like a Mike Holmgren-coached team, despite their talent. However, in the mediocre NFC West they are in the driver's seat with a 4-4 record and they will probably easily win the division even if they play .500 football the rest of the way. As much as they need a division win, you get the feeling that the Seahawks really need a boost of confidence and a solid game in front of a national audience would go a long way towards achieving that goal. The 49ers aren't going anywhere, except home in January, but a rare appearance on "Monday Night Football" should motivate them to play well. Seattle will control this game with some defensive turnovers and a strong game by Hasselbeck and win it going away.




Prediction: Seahawks 27, 49ers 10

[Spearit]

Even though both Seahawks players are listed as questionable, running back Shaun Alexander and receiver Deion Branch are unlikely to play against the 49ers on "Monday Night Football."




Branch


Alexander
Alexander told ESPN's Rachel Nichols on Sunday that he was too banged up and didn't expect to play. The former league MVP has dealt with a broken left wrist and sprained left ankle this season, but his twisted left knee is the injury that will keep him on the sideline.

Alexander has just 139 yards over his last four games. His total of 492 yards in eight games this season, the last seven of which he's played with a cast over his left wrist, is his lowest eight-game rushing total since 2000 when he was a rookie backing up Ricky Watters. His two touchdowns are 26 fewer than he had while leading Seattle into the Super Bowl two seasons ago.

As for Branch, Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren told Nichols, "if it was a Super Bowl, he'd play, but he's still sore enough. Right now it doesn't seem like the way to go."

Branch, who during practice last week kept saying he was "day-to-day," will miss a third consecutive game because of an injured foot.

[Spearit]

The only thing that bothers me is defensive turnovers as far as the under.

I am playing: Prop Bet- No score for first 7 minutes @-120! 240 to make 200!

I may be wanting some kind of action on the game but lets say Branch is out and the weather is bad- I see a good possibility of winning this. But anything can happen.

[frankb03]

About YPP

Yards Per Point is probably the single most powerful stat in handicapping college and NFL football. It's a stat that at a glance, can tell you a whole lot about any given team. It's a stat that should be used by professional sports bettors and rercreational sportsbettors alike.

Those stats don't translate into ATS wins or losses.

Interestingly, teams with the higher (worse) offensive YPP is 51.8% in over 4000 NFL games.

Dogs with the higher YPP 52.5%

Remember a lower YPP is a better rating. Those ATS stats don't account for the teams defensive YPP.

[Kaptain]

If one team falls behind, say by 14, which has the better chance of catching up....San Fran----I don't think so.....Seattle---definitely....

Do you think Seattle is not gonna take a lead, or do you think the 49ers are gonna lead this game.....line is down to -9 1/2....a 2 possession game.....

I likle the Seahawks here.........28-10

[BillMill71]

If one team falls behind, say by 14, which has the better chance of catching up....San Fran----I don't think so.....Seattle---definitely....

Do you think Seattle is not gonna take a lead, or do you think the 49ers are gonna lead this game.....line is down to -9 1/2....a 2 possession game.....

I likle the Seahawks here.........28-10

I agree, to a point Kapt, and said it earlier. SF keeps the ball on the ground with Gore lets say, but turnovers or special teams (Burleson returns) put the edge in the early field position battle to Seattle and they put two up early and lead by 14. I don't think SF can play catch up here if this happens.

BUT, not sure enough this is the way it pans out for me to play either side.

Good Luck

[rinna13]

Matt Hasselbeck's wife just had their second child last night, a boy.
I have an 8 team- 7 point teaser pending with Seattle-2 tonight.
This game might just turn out to be the same as last Monday Night, when Pgh lay-ed 38 on Balt in a blow-out.
I could take SF and guarantee myself some money, but I don't think they can score more than 10.

Last Monday's cover by the home team favorite was the first this year and could be what's in store tonight.

I just can't see anything different than the first time these 2 played------23-3
Def registered 6 sacks and held a healthy Gore to 79 yds rushing, while Hasselbeck threw for 281 and 2 td's.

[x2gold]

Tease it ..Take sea - 2 and Under 44 ...might be my only play.

[GOLDENGREEK]

FoxSheet - San Francisco at Seattle


The Monday night game offers up a divisional showdown between rivals of the NFC West. No team is over .500 in this brutal division, so Seattle maintains control of the lead with a 4-4 record.


The Seahawks are off a disappointing 33-30 OT loss at Cleveland in which they gave up a 21-6 lead. It was the second time in ?07 that the offense scored both 30 points and gained at least 400 yards, so there are signs that the sputtering unit is coming to life.


Speaking of struggling offenses, the 49ers are the league?s worst in yards per game (224.2) and yards per play (4.2). They have lost six straight games and are 1-5 ATS in that span. HC Mike Nolan?s teams are 6-12 ATS as road underdogs, but 5-4 ATS as double-digit dogs, which they are here at +10.


Last year?s game between these teams at Seattle, the 49ers won outright, 24-14 as 10-point dogs.

******* Super Situations favoring the game to go UNDER the total:

Play Under - Road teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in conference games.(31-9 over the last 5 seasons.)
- (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*.)

[GOLDENGREEK]

Sportsnetwork write-up (freebie)

NFL Preview - San Francisco (2-6) at Seattle (4-4)

(Sports Network) - After sleepwalking through the last six weeks, the San Francisco 49ers would be well-advised to arise from their slumber on Monday night, when they face the NFC West-rival Seattle Seahawks at Qwest Field.

Despite a current six-game losing streak that has seen the Niners play some of the worst football witnessed in the NFL in 2007, Mike Nolan's underachieving team still has much to play for as the second half of the season begins.

Due to the perpetually horrid state of the NFC West, San Francisco enters Monday's game a manageable two games behind the 4-4 Seahawks in the division race. Should the 49ers escape Seattle with a win for the second straight year, San Francisco will cut that margin to one game, and will have a chance to get some momentum rolling in a scheduled home date with dismal St. Louis during Week 11.

Though when you've played as poorly as San Francisco has this season, expecting that type of success could be a case of putting the cart well before the horse.

And, lest we forget, the NFC West still very much belongs to the Seahawks, who are in the driver's seat for a fourth consecutive division title.

Mike Holmgren's squad has hardly been dominant of late, with a 33-30 overtime setback in Cleveland last Sunday sending them to a third loss in their last four games.

But dominance has hardly been a prerequisite for winning the West, a division Seattle has claimed with a 9-7 record in two of the last three years.

And, in keeping with that tradition, Seattle is currently the NFL's only team with sole possession of first place in their division despite a .500 mark.

SERIES HISTORY

The Seahawks lead the all-time series with the 49ers, 9-8, breaking a deadlock in the series with a 23-3 win at Monster Park in Week 4. San Francisco swept last year's home-and-home, winning 20-14 winners at Monster Park in Week 11, and 24-14 at Qwest Field in a Thursday night game to open Week 15. The Seahawks had won the previous six meetings, sweeping home-and-homes in 2003, 2004, and 2005.

Holmgren is 12-5 versus San Francisco, where he served as an assistant from 1986 through 1991. Holmgren was 5-1 against the Niners during his tenure as head coach with Green Bay (1993-98), including a 3-1 record in the playoffs. The 49ers' Nolan is 2-3 against both Holmgren and the Seahawks as a head coach.

WHEN THE 49ERS HAVE THE BALL

If the 49ers wish to pull out of their current morass, they must get some traction from an offense that has been woefully inept in 2007. The Niners entered Week 10 ranked last in the league in total offense (224.2 yards per game) and passing offense (132.8 yards per game), and have averaged just 11.2 points per game during their six-game skid. First-year offensive coordinator Jim Hostler has been saddled with much of the criticism for the failings of the unit, with quarterback Alex Smith (800 passing yards, 2 TD, 4 INT), running back Frank Gore (435 rushing yards, 3 TD, 15 receptions), and a banged-up offensive line sharing in it as well. Gore is expected to return Monday after being forced to miss the Week 9 loss to Atlanta with an ankle injury, but former starting linemen Jonas Jennings (ankle) and guard Justin Smiley (shoulder) were placed on season-ending injured reserve earlier this week. Smith's favorite target this season has been Arnaz Battle (28 receptions, 2 TD), and tight end Vernon Davis (25 receptions, 1 TD) has become more involved recently. Smith's only multi-touchdown performance in a road game came in Week 15 of last season in Seattle, when he completed 14-of-25 passes for 162 yards and two scores in an upset win.

The story for the Seahawks defense heading into Monday night is injuries, with the status of luminaries such as defensive end Patrick Kerney (oblique), linebacker Leroy Hill (hamstring), and tackle Rocky Bernard (groin) uncertain for the primetime affair. All three members of the NFL's 17th-ranked defense are regarded as questionable for Sunday, though the low quality of the San Francisco offense could lead the Hawks to keep them out with an eye toward greater future challenges. The absence of all three players could be felt on the back end, where the Seattle secondary has allowed an NFL-low five touchdown passes through its first eight games. Cornerback Marcus Trufant (44 tackles, 3 INT) and safety Deon Grant (39 tackles, 2 INT) have been the group's biggest playmakers. The front seven has been led by pass rushers Julian Peterson (47 tackles, 7 sacks, 1 INT) and Daryl Tapp (23 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 1 INT), along with middle linebacker Lofa Tatupu (58 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT). Tatupu was part of a run-stopping group that allowed four ground touchdowns to Cleveland's Jamal Lewis last Sunday.

WHEN THE SEAHAWKS HAVE THE BALL

Seattle has not managed to avoid the injury bug on offense either, where top wideout Deion Branch (22 receptions, 1 TD) could miss his fourth straight game with a foot injury and running back Shaun Alexander (492 rushing yards, 2 TD, 12 receptions) is questionable with a knee problem. Branch's absence has been mitigated by the fine play of wideouts Bobby Engram (48 receptions, 3 TD), D.J. Hackett (7 receptions, 1 TD), and Nate Burleson (24 receptions, 3 TD), and Morris (129 rushing yards, 6 receptions, 1 TD) thoroughly outplayed the declining Alexander after replacing him last week. Morris carried nine times for 55 yards in the loss, also catching a couple of passes totaling 43 yards out of the backfield. Still pulling the trigger for Seattle is Matt Hasselbeck (2023 passing yards, 13 TD, 7 INT), who carries a solid 2007 passer rating of 88.7 into Monday's game. Hasselbeck, who is 7-2 against San Francisco lifetime, has gone over 300 passing yards in two of his last three games. A hot-and-cold Seahawks line has surrendered 15 sacks of the veteran on the year.

The 49ers are counting on stronger defensive play in the second half out of a unit with several new faces trying to build some chemistry. Free agent secondary pickups Nate Clements (41 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and Michael Lewis (50 tackles, 1 INT), free agent linebacker Tully Banta-Cain (16 tackles, 1.5 sacks), and rookie inside linebacker Patrick Willis (83 tackles, 1 sack) have been key cogs on a group that ranks a disappointing 20th in the league overall (336.5 yards per game). A greater amount of pressure from outside linebackers Banta-Cain and Parys Haralson (19 tackles) will be a must on Monday night for a unit that has generated just 13 sacks through its first eight games. Willis, fellow linebacker Derek Smith (57 tackles, 1 sack), and defensive linemen Marques Douglas (44 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Bryant Young (19 tackles, 4 sacks) have been the most notable playmakers for a front seven that ranks just 24th in the NFL against the run (127.2 yards per game).

FANTASY FOCUS

The Seahawks have several intriguing fantasy possibilities for Monday night, including Hasselbeck and Engram, who have both put up big numbers the past few weeks. Monitor the status of Alexander up until game time, and if it looks like he'll be out, consider starting Morris. Given the state of the San Francisco offense, going with the Seattle "D" is also a good call.

The 49ers don't have a fantasy player to be recommended without qualification, though the tight end Davis has become a greater part of the offense in recent weeks and Gore is bound to break out of his slump when healthy.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The 49ers were picked by many to win the NFC West in 2007, and some time soon, you can expect them to start displaying the promise that led to that prediction. Whether it will be too late to get anything accomplished is the question, however. The 49ers will have a golden opportunity to change the course of their season with a Monday night win over a struggling Seattle team. Something has been missing with the Seahawks for much of the year, and it is unlikely that they are healthy enough to dominate the 49ers as they did back in Week 4. Look for them to win this one due in large part to the 12th man and some continued San Francisco offensive mistakes, but also expect the outcome to be in doubt in the fourth quarter.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Seahawks 16, 49ers 13