Announcement

**Spearit** · 11-12-2007, 11:38 AM

About YPP

Yards Per Point is probably the single most powerful stat in handicapping college and NFL football. It's a stat that at a glance, can tell you a whole lot about any given team. It's a stat that should be used by professional sports bettors and rercreational sportsbettors alike.

What makes this stat attractive to the recreational sports handicapper is that it allows a guy or gal who works a full week, and has a life outside of sports, to make educated selections on football games with only a minimal amount of work.

The stat is very easy to compute. Simply take a teams offensive yards gained and divide by points scored. On defense, take the yards given up and divide by points given up. Many publications, tip sheets, etc, do the work for you. Power Sweep is one such publication.

So now you have two numbers for each team. An offensive number and a defensive number. The lower the offensive number, the better the offense. The higher the defensive number, the better the defense.

You can now take these numbers and use them as a power rating.

Let's take a look at an actual game from the past. .Buffalo was playing at New England.

Buffalo's offensive number was 14.1 and there defensive number is 12. We subtract the offensive number from the defensive number and get -2.1 which would be Buffalo's rating.

The Pats numbers were 13.5 on offense and 15.4 on def. Making their rating +1.9. So, the difference between the two is 4 in favor of the Pats. We add 2 points for home field and have a Yards Per Point line on this game if New England -6.

Look for significant difference between the YPP line and the sportsbooks line.

Now there's all sorts of variations of this. You can break this down and figure out YPP for home and away. You can ferret out common opponents and look at a teams YPP against the same teams. The stat really requires at least 4 games to be effective. You can also keep a running tally of this stat only going back 4 or 5 games, which will give you a clearer picture of how a team is doing lately.

You'll notice many of the games fall right on the number. Yet others you'll spot differences.

So there you have it. This can also be used for college football but you need to be careful. The stat can become distorted as a result of the blow outs so common in college ball.

A few minutes work each week and you can take a lot of the guesswork out of your selections. This method, used as a power rating, in conjunction with other stats such as turnovers, trends, weather and injuries have produced very positive results for many football handicappers over years.

**Spearit** · 11-12-2007, 11:50 AM

From the ypp I have 12 plus home advantage of 3. This gives me 15 point difference.
I look at the weather and see rain is forcasted. I see where Seattle will be throwing on first down. Funny but I have a hard time understanding the leak of info!
I see both defenses can be exploited.
I see Alexander has not had much to write home about this season.
Maybe the air game in the rain is exactly what Seattle needs!
Alex Smith hasn't shown anything. What is their philosophy on exposing Seattle's defense.

* First game was 23-3 in SF

Are we in for another defensive night!
Does that bring the points down and give SF a better chance to cover?
Am I just thinking out loud or does anyone have anything to add?

**drugstuntman** · 11-12-2007, 11:50 AM

thanks spear - great read and something I never really looked at

**TOYER** · 11-12-2007, 12:04 PM

Alexander and Branch both out.

**Spearit** · 11-12-2007, 12:08 PM

Hmmm Thanx Toyer- No confirmation yet but if so- Defensive game in the rain is looking better on that end! Frank Gore is suppose to be back- hmmm rain- defensive game- SF looking better than 15 points but will they cover? Alex Smith was hurt in the first game!

**Spearit** · 11-12-2007, 12:10 PM

As poorly as the Seattle Seahawks have played of late, they've been able to hold onto the top spot in the weak NFC West.

The Seahawks look to bounce back from their most recent loss Monday night when they host the reeling San Francisco 49ers, who haven't won in almost two months.

Seattle (4-4) blew a 12-point lead, then forced overtime and lost 33-30 at Cleveland last Sunday for its third defeat in four games. Despite their recent struggles, the Seahawks still hold a one-half game lead over Arizona in a division in which the teams have lost 18 straight games combined.

That's allowed the Seahawks to remain the team to beat in the West, and their upcoming schedule could keep it that way.

The 49ers (2-6) have lost sixth straight after falling 20-16 last week at Atlanta, and coach Mike Nolan will be guiding the team with a heavy heart. Nolan's father - former 49ers coach Dick Nolan - died Sunday at the age of 75.

Mike Nolan missed practice with the 49ers on Friday and Saturday, traveling back to Texas to be with his father.

He is expected to coach Monday against Seattle, which is only two games ahead of the 49ers.

"We are leading our division, still, and we have a division opponent coming up, which is a very important game," Seattle coach Mike Holmgren told the team's official Web site. "It's now an eight-game season and we've got a one-game lead."

Holmgren knows there's lots of room to improve, and he could go to a more of a pass-first offense Sunday until he gains more confidence in banged-up Shaun Alexander and a 23rd-ranked running game that's averaging 94.1 yards.

Alexander, who did not practice Wednesday but is likely to play Monday despite injuring his knee versus Cleveland, has rushed for 492 yards on 149 carries. He ran 14 times for 32 yards against the Browns.

The former MVP has rushed for 954 yards and 10 TDs in 11 games versus the 49ers, but had just 78 yards on 25 carries in Seattle's 23-3 win at San Francisco on Sept. 30.

Matt Hasselbeck threw for 281 yards and two touchdowns in the last meeting with San Francisco and was 30-for-47 for 318 yards with two touchdowns and an interception against Cleveland. Hasselbeck has thrown six TDs and three interceptions in his last three games and topped the 300-yard mark in two of his last three contests, which may make it easier for Holmgren to rethink his offensive game plan.

"That might be the way we have to go now, play to our strengths just a little bit, how we're going right now," Holmgren said. "And instead of striving for balance, maybe we have to tip the scales just a little bit to be at our most productive, we'll see."

The Seahawks may also have receiver Deion Branch and tight end Marcus Pollard back Sunday. Branch missed the last three games with a foot injury and Pollard the last two with a knee problem. Branch caught 10 balls for a season-high 130 yards in the win over San Francisco.

The 49ers, too, look to get healthier with the expected return of running back Frank Gore on Sunday. Gore missed last week's loss and has yet to rediscover the form that allowed him to lead the NFC in rushing with 1,695 yards in 2006.

He has 435 yards on 110 carries, but has yet to rush for more than 100 yards this season, gaining 79 on 16 carries versus Seattle. Gore rushed for 356 yards in two wins over the Seahawks last season.

The 49ers, though, might need more than an effective Gore to boost the NFL's worst offense, which is averaging 224.2 yards. San Francisco is averaging 13.0 points and 11.2 during its six-game skid.

"We have to keep fighting,' said Alex Smith, who was 17-for-38 for 149 yards and three interceptions last week. "There's no other choice.'

After throwing for 328 yards and three TDs last season against Seattle, Smith hopes to fare better Monday than he did in the September meeting with the Seahawks. He separated his shoulder on the third play of that contest and missed two games as a result.

San Francisco has not lost seven in a row since Nov. 6-Dec. 18, 2005, but can take comfort from knowing it's not out of the division race.

"It's tough to be 2-6, but we find ourselves in a unique position and with a unique challenge at only two games out playing our division leader this week," Nolan said. "The season is a long way from being over."

The 49ers have lost seven of the last nine meetings with the Seahawks.

**BillMill71** · 11-12-2007, 12:13 PM

Thanks Spear for the writeup on YPP.

I can't get a handle on this game one way or the other.

**Spearit** · 11-12-2007, 12:24 PM

Originally posted by BillMill71

Thanks Spear for the writeup on YPP.

I can't get a handle on this game one way or the other.

Neither can I - which summoned me to go public with what I know and dang figure out the outcome as any decent capper might do if given all the facts.

**Spearit** · 11-12-2007, 12:33 PM

One's view of the game. Notice the use of ypp (yppl?)

San Francisco is the 2nd worst team in the NFL, but the Niners aren't so bad that they can't cover as a double-digit dog against a sub-par Seattle team in a negative situation.

Seattle has been solid defensively, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team, but the Seahawks have been 0.2 yppl below average on offense (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and they're even worse without WR Deion Branch in the lineup the last 3 games (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team).

Branch will probably miss this game too, or not be 100% if he does play. What makes Branch important is that he's averaged 9.5 yards per pass thrown to him while the 3 other receivers taking his place combine to average just 5.9 yards per pass attempted. Branch had 36 passes thrown to him in 5 games and those 7.2 attempts are now resulting in 3.6 yards less per throw, which is 25.9 yards per game, 0.7 yards per pass play and 0.4 yppl which equates to about 2 points per game.

Possibly the Seahawks by 8 points without Branch playing and by 10 points if he is 100% healthy.

The Niners apply to a very good 226-109-9 ATS indicator while Seattle applies to a negative 33-89-1 ATS situation that is based on their bad defense last week.

**BillMill71** · 11-12-2007, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by Spearit

Neither can I - which summoned me to go public with what I know and dang figure out the outcome as any decent capper might do if given all the facts.

Well I won't be much help there

I think the Total is too close at 37.5 (looking at AF and AA for both teams). I can see Sea getting their 21 to 27 points. But SF has scored on average 14 the last three and Sea defense is poor, letting up over 335 YPG (over 240 in the Air). The score of first game was a very low 23-3. All the trends point to under, but does SF play inspired football and win 24 -21??

Then as you stated the weather, but I do not always feel that advantage is to the defense unless winds are over 15 MPH.

Then the crowd noise factor, although Sea is only 2-2 ATS at home. Injuries (some will play but hurt) on both sides.

As far as the side, the line begs one to take the points with SF, trends seem to point to SF. Once again though Sea won first meeting in SF by 20. SF has been outgained yards wise last 8 and has lost last 6 SU, and 5 of those ATS. Seattle has lost 5 of last 7ATS and has scored 30+ points in the last 2.

I am confused and will probably just stay away

**Spearit** · 11-12-2007, 12:44 PM

Confusion reigns and this may be a good game to pass on. The wind is reported at around 20 mph. I will get out off of here and see what the crew turns up for later. Thanx for the reply guys!

**10DimeBry** · 11-12-2007, 01:00 PM

san fran is 2-5-1ats YTD and they havent covered in over a month and have looked terrible. IMO this is the perfect time to jump on San Fran. PPL tend to blindly bet against bad teams......and at this point IMO is a great time to take San Fran getting 10pts. Alot like St Louis yesterday.

**Spearit** · 11-12-2007, 01:09 PM

Originally posted by 10DimeBry

san fran is 2-5-1ats YTD and they havent covered in over a month and have looked terrible. IMO this is the perfect time to jump on San Fran. PPL tend to blindly bet against bad teams......and at this point IMO is a great time to take San Fran getting 10pts. Alot like St Louis yesterday.

Its looking encouraging if Branch can not deliver. If I was SF and had a healthy Gore - I would mix those plays up with mostly runs and dump passes to him. Thats right run him hard in the rain and put him up wet. Use the game clock and field advantage for a cover and possibly a win! The other receivers don't add up for the points given to Seattle. But then again we are talking about SF. Hmmmm!

**BillMill71** · 11-12-2007, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by Spearit

Its looking encouraging if Branch can not deliver. If I was SF and had a healthy Gore - I would mix those plays up with mostly runs and dump passes to him. Thats right run him hard in the rain and put him up wet. Use the game clock and field advantage for a cover and possibly a win!

IF, and that is a big IF Gore is really healthy. The rain sets up nicely for him, because I feel his strength is the cutback running style, which is much more effective on a sloppy field, IF Gore can keep his feet and the defense slides by.

That being said, what to do if the Seahawks get up early in a field position battle with Burleson snapping off a few good returns (SF special teams nothing special), and put 14 up by the second quarter. Can SF continue to stay on the ground?

Too many damn questions here for me I thinks

Announcement

MNF Info and Variables

MNF Info and Variables

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment