MNF Green Bay To Cover

[Spearit]

u are both wrong team with the most points will win gl fellas

Amazing how we keep missing that stat. Most points win! I will have to look into this!

[Spearit]

Are you a big proponent of running the ball. Teams’ that run the ball 26 or more times in the NFL, in today’s game, cover the spread better than 79 percent of the time. (Note –The number 26 is benchmark, if both teams exceed that total, take the team with higher figure.)

One statistical analysis which has been around for a couple of decades, yet does not receive much play is yards per point or YPPT. What this measures is the total effectiveness of a team’s offense to score points in relationship to yards gained.

Too put it in simplest terms, how you beat another team is by outscoring them. This can be done by throwing effectively and by running efficiently. To figure this just take the number of yards a team gains in a game and divide by the number of points they scored.

What these numbers reflect is any team’s ability to score points based on yardage gained in a specific contest. For example, New England leads the NFL in scoring and in total offense, thus it would stand to reason, they would be the best team in the league in YPPT. Contrast those consistent numbers with Denver, who finally covered the spread for the first time this season against Pittsburgh. The Broncos are 5th in total offense at 358.3 yards per game, however are a dismal 30th in the league at 20.3 YPPT. Jay Cutler by appearances will be a fine NFL quarterback, maybe even a great one, but as young player he will make mistakes.

With a turnover differential of -3 on the season for the Broncos and a suspect defense that can not force many three and outs, this mean’s no matter how smart Mike Shanahan is as coach, if his offense has to continually go 60 yards or more to score touchdowns, the points will be harder to come by compared to a team that creates more turnovers or can alter field position with a strong defense.

Here is a list of the current top five teams against the spread and yards per point number.

1) New England 7-0 (10.9)
2) Indianapolis 4-2 (12.4)
3) Dallas 4-2 (12.4)
4) Cleveland 4-2 (12.7)
5) NY Giants 5-2 (13)

As good as the yards per pass attempt group actually are at 23-11, 67.6 percent against the spread, this contingent is right now even more productive at 25-8 ATS, 75.7 percent. Over time these numbers will come down, as oddsmakers adjust and different teams float in and out for any number of reasons.

The same is true for bad teams that can not score, either because they can’t move the ball or they can’t put it in the end zone without solid quarterback play. Here is the list of the bottom feeders in the league and their spread record.

28) New Orleans 1-5 (18.9)
29) Kansas City 4-2 (20.2)
30) Denver 1-5 (20.3)
31) Atlanta 3-3-1 (21.8)
32) St. Louis 1-6 (24.3)

At 10-21 ATS, 32.2 percent, this compares very favorably to what the YPPA grouping that is 9-21 ATS, with the difference being how the bye weeks have fallen for particular teams.

All of these figures are not one year wonders either, as the savvy bettor can make a surfeit of riches choosing situations wisely. Last season playing on San Diego, Chicago, New England, Dallas and Buffalo would have brought home a return of 57.6 percent on 45-33-2 ATS record. Conversely, playing against Atlanta, Carolina, Miami, Tampa Bay and Oakland would have framed 59.8 percent winners at 46-31. In 2005, the top and bottom five would have netted an even higher percentage in each situation.

The Play On teams were 46-31 and Play Against clubs were 47-32 for a combined sound percentage of 61.5 percent.

[Chado1]

Are you a big proponent of running the ball. Teams’ that run the ball 26 or more times in the NFL, in today’s game, cover the spread better than 79 percent of the time. (Note –The number 26 is benchmark, if both teams exceed that total, take the team with higher figure.)

One statistical analysis which has been around for a couple of decades, yet does not receive much play is yards per point or YPPT. What this measures is the total effectiveness of a team’s offense to score points in relationship to yards gained.

Too put it in simplest terms, how you beat another team is by outscoring them. This can be done by throwing effectively and by running efficiently. To figure this just take the number of yards a team gains in a game and divide by the number of points they scored.

What these numbers reflect is any team’s ability to score points based on yardage gained in a specific contest. For example, New England leads the NFL in scoring and in total offense, thus it would stand to reason, they would be the best team in the league in YPPT. Contrast those consistent numbers with Denver, who finally covered the spread for the first time this season against Pittsburgh. The Broncos are 5th in total offense at 358.3 yards per game, however are a dismal 30th in the league at 20.3 YPPT. Jay Cutler by appearances will be a fine NFL quarterback, maybe even a great one, but as young player he will make mistakes.

With a turnover differential of -3 on the season for the Broncos and a suspect defense that can not force many three and outs, this mean’s no matter how smart Mike Shanahan is as coach, if his offense has to continually go 60 yards or more to score touchdowns, the points will be harder to come by compared to a team that creates more turnovers or can alter field position with a strong defense.

Here is a list of the current top five teams against the spread and yards per point number.

1) New England 7-0 (10.9)
2) Indianapolis 4-2 (12.4)
3) Dallas 4-2 (12.4)
4) Cleveland 4-2 (12.7)
5) NY Giants 5-2 (13)

As good as the yards per pass attempt group actually are at 23-11, 67.6 percent against the spread, this contingent is right now even more productive at 25-8 ATS, 75.7 percent. Over time these numbers will come down, as oddsmakers adjust and different teams float in and out for any number of reasons.

The same is true for bad teams that can not score, either because they can’t move the ball or they can’t put it in the end zone without solid quarterback play. Here is the list of the bottom feeders in the league and their spread record.

28) New Orleans 1-5 (18.9)
29) Kansas City 4-2 (20.2)
30) Denver 1-5 (20.3)
31) Atlanta 3-3-1 (21.8)
32) St. Louis 1-6 (24.3)

At 10-21 ATS, 32.2 percent, this compares very favorably to what the YPPA grouping that is 9-21 ATS, with the difference being how the bye weeks have fallen for particular teams.

All of these figures are not one year wonders either, as the savvy bettor can make a surfeit of riches choosing situations wisely. Last season playing on San Diego, Chicago, New England, Dallas and Buffalo would have brought home a return of 57.6 percent on 45-33-2 ATS record. Conversely, playing against Atlanta, Carolina, Miami, Tampa Bay and Oakland would have framed 59.8 percent winners at 46-31. In 2005, the top and bottom five would have netted an even higher percentage in each situation.

The Play On teams were 46-31 and Play Against clubs were 47-32 for a combined sound percentage of 61.5 percent.

This holds true for ANY sport...if you CAPITALIZE you win...if you dont CAPITALIZE you lose...simple as that...makes me so angry when a team I am betting on doesnt CAPITALIZE....have always said this.....

[jt4545]

Gl Big "s"

[Kaptain]

gl to ya Spearit

[Spearit]

Thanx JT and Kapt!

Some trends on Denver:

DENVER is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

[PhilJr]

Go Pack Go

[Larry29]

Good Luck to you, I too like Green Bay plus the points!

[TheRook]

Not many of us on the packers tonight...maybe that's a good thing.

But i'm loving the fact your one of the few with me.

the packers defense is surprisingly good and very much under the radar. I think they could give Cutler fits.

Packers don't need a running game to win this....just enough to keep the Broncos on their toes.

[bryce]

GL tonight SPEARIT!

[Spearit]

Thanx Frank
I differ on this because Denver needed 3 last second field goals to win their games. With Brandon Stokley and Brandon Marshall they will move the ball but they have little else as playmakers until Jamal returns to the lineup for Denver.
I see GB offense attacking the Denver line with short passes to the side and over the middle and with Lynch moving up toward the line to protect a perceived running play - Brett Farve may take the initiative to neutralize him by being out of position.
Lets face it - Champ Bailey is hurtin' and Brett will want to test him early!

Wow- That was a nice TD!

[Spearit]

"They were Who we thought they were!"

Denny said it all right there.

Green Bay -3----------------------WINNER



Teaser -----------------------------WINNER as well.

[bryce]

Congrats SPEAR!

[rcmcd]

Was on this and if I had time to see that you had it also wouldve unloaded on this bitch! Nice job as always buddy!! Im really looking to unload on the Pats and I hope you can post some early thoughts on this since my time on here is limited lately. Im leaning to over 56, but the real play should be the Pats-5 which I think they win by 7-10 and hope goes down.

[jkim1015]

Great call man...I was on GB too. Definitely a nailbiter...