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MNF Green Bay To Cover

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  • #1

    MNF Green Bay To Cover

    Such an interesting game!
    I keep looking at stats and trends and find that both teams could easily win this by 3 points.
    So- I believe this play gives me the best chance of winning tonight.

    Green Bay +3

    Spear - why Green Bay? Denver's secondary is really strong and had a great game against Pitt.

    Answer:-- In the 3 wins by Denver, they have won each game by 3 points. Against a team that has a week off to prepare and may just add a little surprise for Denver and the TV folks at home.

    But Spear-
    Look at Denver’s number five ranking in total offense at 358.3 yards a game.

    Answer: Not impressed with the Broncos inability to put points on the scoreboard.
    They march up and down the field and chew on the clock until the defense starts to clamp down in around the red zone, this is where quarterback Jay Cutler’s inexperience shows up.
    Denver is just 26th in points scored at 17.7, giving them a deplorable 30th ranking in yards per point.

    Spear - Yeah but the Packers have very little ground game avg 3.3 yards per carry!

    Answer:
    The Packers reportedly spent the bye week attempting to build even a mediocre running game with an ugly three-headed monster of DeShawn Wynn, Brandon Jackson, and Vernand Morency. With Denver being the worse against the run (just ask Jax Jaguars)- expect to see more running and a diversified attack against Denver. Its the only thing that makes sense.

    Tangibles- I looked over the totals and the trends pointed out numerous Overs as the best trend. However, I foresee more field goals than TD's so I am on the side tonight taking the gift of 3 points and waiting for some Brett Favre magic in his suspected last year.
    Last edited by Spearit; 10-29-2007, 02:08 PM.
    "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.
    Tags: None
  • #2
    BOL tonight Spear...against you on this one however!!!
    SOBER SINCE MARCH 28TH OF 2007!!!

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    • #3
      I'm also against you I like Denver

      .

      gl
      Last edited by frankb03; 10-29-2007, 02:19 PM.

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      • #4
        Good luck Spear. I like the Pack also.
        MLB (2014): (3-4) -.9 units

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Chado1
          BOL tonight Spear...against you on this one however!!!
          I know Chado- I read ya earlier!
          Of course this game is played on the field and a winner may emerge or it may well be a push. Green Bay has some injuries on defense and if any receivers get hurt- this game is in your pocket.
          I just think Denver got lucky last game against Pitt and are full of themselves.
          GB has matured and found a way to continually beat the spread this NFL season. Denver has stunk up the ATS at home so we will see.
          "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Spearit
            I know Chado- I read ya earlier!
            Of course this game is played on the field and a winner may emerge or it may well be a push. Green Bay has some injuries on defense and if any receivers get hurt- this game is in your pocket.
            I just think Denver got lucky last game against Pitt and are full of themselves.
            GB has matured and found a way to continually beat the spread this NFL season. Denver has stunk up the ATS at home so we will see.
            Dont know if Denver got lucky...they were up 21-7 and 28-14...sure they won by a FG in the dying seconds but they won outright as 4 point underdogs and definately werent lucky...should be a good game...even with Champ and Bly questionable the back up CB's in Karl Paymah and Domonique Foxworth are no push overs either. They can guard Driver, Lee, Jones or Jennings with the best of them. Farvre throws INT's all day...looking for him to throw at least 2 tonight IMO...
            Last edited by Chado1; 10-29-2007, 02:34 PM.
            SOBER SINCE MARCH 28TH OF 2007!!!

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            • #7
              Originally posted by frankb03
              I'm also against you I like Denver.

              gl
              Thanx Frank
              I differ on this because Denver needed 3 last second field goals to win their games. With Brandon Stokley and Brandon Marshall they will move the ball but they have little else as playmakers until Jamal returns to the lineup for Denver.
              I see GB offense attacking the Denver line with short passes to the side and over the middle and with Lynch moving up toward the line to protect a perceived running play - Brett Farve may take the initiative to neutralize him by being out of position.
              Lets face it - Champ Bailey is hurtin' and Brett will want to test him early!
              Last edited by Spearit; 10-29-2007, 02:39 PM.
              "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Chado1
                Dont know if Denver got lucky...they were up 21-7 and 28-14...sure they won by a FG in the dying seconds but they won outright as 4 point underdogs and definately werent lucky...should be a good game...even with Champ and Bly questionable the back up CB's in Karl Paymah and Domonique Foxworth are no push overs either. They can guard Driver, Lee, Jones or Jennings with the best of them. Farvre throws INT's all day...looking for him to throw at least 2 tonight IMO...
                The toughest thing is how are these fans gonna take a dismal showing after they were lead to the promise land with the Rockies. I would like ya to know that I have been a Denver fan for a while- just I don't see them doing it tonight.
                As far as interceptions- good point. But Cutler had 2 intercepted last week and so the turnovers become the main ingredient!
                "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by weazel079
                  Good luck Spear. I like the Pack also.
                  Thanx Weazel! Good Luck Tonight!
                  "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Spearit
                    The toughest thing is how are these fans gonna take a dismal showing after they were lead to the promise land with the Rockies. I would like ya to know that I have been a Denver fan for a while- just I don't see them doing it tonight.
                    As far as interceptions- good point. But Cutler had 2 intercepted last week and so the turnovers become the main ingredient!
                    Yes turnovers will most likely be the deciding factor tonight as both QB's are prone to throwing interceptions....
                    SOBER SINCE MARCH 28TH OF 2007!!!

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                    • #11
                      GL Spear I like your thinking. Sometimes it is just a team's year to be good. Bears last year as one example. Lets hope Cutler's inexperience wont let them put a game away or come back for a win/cover.

                      GO CHEESEHEADS! needless to say I will be wearing my packers jersey and my cheesehead tonight watching this at the bar. they are going to think i am nuts.
                      NFL System - Year 1
                      Week 2 3-2 +0.8 Units
                      Week 3 3-2-1 +0.8 Units
                      Week 3 3-3 -0.3 Units
                      Week 4 3-2 +0.8 Units
                      Week 5 2-3 -1.3 Units
                      Week 6 4-1 +2.9 Units
                      Week 7 3-0 +3.0 Units
                      Week 8 2-3 -2.35 Units
                      Week 9 0-1 -1.1 Units
                      Season Total 23-17 +3.35 Units

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                      • #12
                        GL Spearit. I like the call. Thinking about teasing it though. Do you like the under better tonight?

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by hokie99
                          GL Spearit. I like the call. Thinking about teasing it though. Do you like the under better tonight?
                          hokie- My experience with teasers have been so-so. No real advantage. But tonight may be a different story as Denver plays close to the vest generally.
                          So if it was my teaser to play - I would entertain GB +10 and Under 50.

                          Why the under. The public has pushed this game total from I believe 41 to 43 - so you have a few points there and then add 7 more - for a 8 or 9 point difference depending on the open total figure.
                          I mentioned how tough it is for Denver to score in the red zone -so FG's may be a strong possibility. Again, turnovers can bash this over so play lightly!
                          "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

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                          • #14
                            good luck with Tha Pack tonight, Spearit!

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                            • #15
                              u are both wrong team with the most points will win gl fellas
                              rjeremy for my accounts manager/i love how he keeps numbers

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